Policy for Progress Off Cycle Elections Report

ISSUE BRIEF FROM

Our Democracy is Having an Off Day Why Massachusetts politicians never truly face the voters Governor Deval Patrick once said, “Massachusetts invented America.” Our Commonwealth is a historic birthplace of American democracy, but our practice of democracy faces a huge participation problem in the local elections where vital policy decisions are made. In Boston, turnout in local elections is abysmal—only 16.5% of the voting-age population cast a ballot in the city’s 2019 city council contest.

This democratic shortfall also deepens existing divides: those who did vote were significantly whiter and wealthier than Boston as a whole. The problem is fairly straightforward: Boston, like many other American cities, holds its local elections in odd-numbered years, or “off-cycle.” When Massachusetts voters want to cast ballots for local offices, they must take an extra trip to the polls. Research shows that holding local elections off-cycle depresses turnout, particularly among people of color, and heightens the power of special interest groups.

Today, essentially no elected officials in Massachusetts face the full electorate.

Beyond local elections, our state legislative elections are overwhelmingly uncontested and one party holds supermajority control in both chambers. Even elections for statewide offices like governor are held in non-presidential election years, when turnout is far lower.

The Problem “Off-cycle” elections held in odd-numbered years

Low turnout

■ Voters older, whiter & wealthier, reducing political power of historically underserved groups ■ Special interest groups hold outsized influence

The Solution “On-cycle” elections in even-numbered years, with national elections

High turnout

■ Turnout is more representative of the population ■ Reduced political incentive to cater to older, whiter, wealthier voters and to special interest groups

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BOSTON CASE STUDY

CASE STUDY

Boston’s Turnout Problem Massachusetts’ biggest city experiences dismal turnout in its local elections.

This is especially true among voters of color.

According to estimates in the most widely used voter database, only 4,255 Hispanic voters participated in Boston’s 2019 city council election. Comparatively, 25,322 voted for president in 2020—that means Hispanic turnout was almost six times higher in the presidential than in the local election. A similar trend occurred among Boston’s Black electorate—67% of Black registered voters cast ballots in 2020, compared to only 15% in 2019.

These trends are especially meaningful when viewed as a share of the electorate.

Between the 2019 and 2020 elections, the share of Hispanic voters jumped from 6.7% to 9.3%. This 39% increase in the share of voters occured during an election in which no municipal candidates were on the ballot. This loss of voice in local democracy and governance magnifies existing disparities in a city where 43% of public school children are Hispanic.

Voter turnout in Boston Black and Hispanic Bostonians were far less likely than whites to vote in recent off-cycle municipal elections.

% Turnout of registered voters of each group 2019 ELECTION (OFF-CYCLE) VS. 2020 ELECTION (ON-CYCLE)

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

79% Disparity between non-Hispanic white and Hispanic voter turnout increases from 1.3x to 2.0x in off-year elections

67%

61%

22%

of White

registered voters

11% of Hispanic registered voters

100%

15% of Black

registered voters

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BOSTON CASE STUDY

Election timing affects the outcome

This problem goes beyond Boston

The problem lies in the timing of local elections. Boston, like 80% of American cities, holds its local elections off-cycle. This practice dates back to the 19th century, when Progressive Era reformers hoped that holding local elections in off-years would insulate local races from national partisan politics. However, in practice, this practice dilutes the power of historically marginalized groups.

Other Massachusetts municipalities also experience abysmal turnout.

In Billerica, which held its most recent town election in April, only 12.6% of registered voters cast ballots.

Turnout dropped all the way to 8.5% in Tewksbury’s recent election.

Political science researchers have found that off-cycle local elections cause a dramatic reduction in voter turnout. In California, for instance, turnout in cities that hold off-cycle elections is 36% lower than in cities that schedule local elections and presidential elections on the same day. And when overall turnout drops, people of color lose out. White voters cast ballots at a disproportionately higher rate in low-turnout, off-cycle elections.

Worcester is also under fire for racially disparate turnout in its off-cycle elections. The NAACP recently sued the city, alleging that its at-large voting system for electing members of the School Committee discriminates against people of color.

Turnout funnel The Hispanic share of total Boston voters decreases in off-cycle elections.

Boston Hispanic population

Boston voting age population

Registered voters

11.3%

Hispanic share of registered voters

2020 voters

9.3%

Hispanic share of 2020 voters

2019 voters

6.7%

Hispanic share of 2019 voters

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Low turnout disportionately empowers whiter, wealthier voters & special interest groups When overall turnout decreases, this racial skew makes more of an impact, giving white voters disproportionate electoral influence over the greater community. Low turnout also provides opportunities for special interest groups, such as public sector unions, to run the table. Research shows that cities with off-cycle elections pay some public employees significantly more than districts with on-cycle elections, suggesting the outsize influence of public sector employees when they play a disproportionate role in electing those who negotiate contracts.

The disproportionate influence of white voters and special interests affects representation. A recent study of thousands of local officials found that whites are overrepresented on city councils by 19%, when compared to their share of the total population.

The racially skewed voting population and underrepresentation of people of color in local government has policy implications. Politicians are concerned with reelection—why should they pay attention to the needs of people of color when they don’t vote in local elections? Because off-cycle elections breed low turnout, politicians only have to pander to special interests. Electoral realities allow Boston’s politicians to ignore large segments of the electorate, never truly facing all of their constituents.

f -cy f O

cle electorat

Special interest groups have the opportunity to have an outsized impact on the election

e

Disproportionally white

-c On

Off-cycle elections have failed in other cities Ferguson, Missouri exemplifies this phenomenon. Ferguson, which holds off-cycle local elections, experiences abysmal turnout. Their low, unequal turnout led to the underrepresentation of Black citizens in its local government.

■ Only 12% of the electorate

voted in its 2013 municipal race.

■ White citizens were 3X as

likely as Black citizens to vote in 2013.

■ The city was 67% Black

in 2013 but 5 of 6 council members were white.

(As well as its mayor and police chief).

ycle electorate

More representational electorate

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Democracy is Having an Off Day—Here’s how to fix it So low turnout in local elections entrenches incumbents and exacerbates racial inequities. How do we solve this problem? It turns out, there’s a pretty simple answer: eliminate off-cycle elections.

The theory is clear: off-cycle elections place an extra burden on voters by forcing them to take additional trips to the polls. By moving these elections to coincide with national races, cities can eliminate these extra costs to voting, thereby increasing turnout. The research backs this up. Scholars have predicted that holding municipal elections concurrently with national elections could increase turnout by 29%. It would also save the city money. Holding elections is expensive, and it costs cities considerably more to hold additional elections in odd-numbered years.

This reform has worked in other cities Baltimore switched from off-cycle to on-cycle municipal elections in 2016, which raised its turnout by a whopping 47 points (13% to 60%).

San Diego usually experiences large turnout (as high as 76%) in its on-cycle local elections. But when the mayor resigned and the city held an off-cycle election in 2013, turnout sank to 35%.

In 2021, many elected leaders and newspapers cited the importance of saving money and making voting easier when advocating for the cancelation of a special election to replace Former Mayor Marty Walsh. These calls for a consolidated election could extend to even greater participation in local elections by shifting years. Changing local election timing would only require a simple action by the state legislature, requiring municipalities to amend the election timing rules in their city charters.

Turnout could increase by 29% if municipal elections concurrently with national elections, according to scholars’ predictions

Above all else, it’s what the voters want We partnered with the MassINC Polling Group to field a survey of 552 registered voters in the City of Boston, conducted from April 8–11, 2021. We asked them if they would support a move to hold Boston’s local elections on the same day as national elections. The answer was, overwhelmingly, yes. We know that moving to on-cycle elections has been shown to increase voter turnout. Now the data tells us that it’s politically feasible—Boston voters support such a change.

Election Timing Preferences of Boston Voters On-cycle Off-cycle

62% 31%

62% of Boston voters support consolidating local elections with national ones, compared to only 31% who say the city should continue to hold local elections in odd-numbered years. That means twice as many Boston voters prefer on-cycle elections to off-cycle ones. Support for election consolidation remains consistent across virtually every demographic group. Majorities of white (68%), Latino (56%), and Black (51%) voters support the proposal. And the measure receives strong support from voters in all age categories, education levels, income ranges, neighborhoods, and political parties.

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Time to Face the Electorate These survey results present us with an opportunity. It’s clear that off-cycle elections depress turnout, disempower historically marginalized communities, and harm representative democracy. It allows for outsized influence from special interests, leaving behind the rest of the electorate. Moving local elections to coincide with national contests would increase turnout and minimize these racial disparities. It would force political candidates to become more inclusive, and to address the needs of a larger share of their constituents.

This simple reform requires a change in the state law that requires cities to hold their elections on-cycle. Our research demonstrates that voters in Boston overwhelmingly support such a change, and it is sorely needed to make strides in representation around the state.

It is time for our leaders to face the electorate. Democracy reformers should advocate for eliminating off-cycle elections so our Commonwealth can become a more direct, representative, and equitable democracy.

Recommended Reading on Increasing Participation

Academic Research on Low Turnout in Local Elections

1. How Democrats Suppress the Vote (Eitan Hersh, FiveThirtyEight, 3 November 2015)

7. Election Timing and the Electoral Influence of Interest Groups (Sarah F. Anzia, The Journal of Politics, vol. 73, no.

2, 13 May 2011)

2. Why Does No One Vote in Local Elections? (Zoltan L. Hajnal, The New York Times, 22 October 2018) 3. MassForward: Advancing Democratic Innovation and Electoral Reform in Massachusetts (Peter Levine et al., MassINC, November 2019)

8. Municipal Institutions and Voter Turnout in Local Elections (Zoltan L. Hajnal and Paul G. Lewis, Urban Affairs Review, vol. 38, no. 5, 1 May 2003)

4. MassVOTE’s Role in Transforming Local Elections (Caleb Seamon, MassVOTE, Spring 2021)

9. Where Turnout Matters: The Consequences of Uneven Turnout in City Politics (Zoltan L. Hajnal and Jessica Trounstine, The Journal of Politics, vol. 67, no. 2, 13 April 2005)

5. Timing is everything: Why ‘off year’ elections are a turnout buzz kill (Geoff West, The Fulcrum, 14 August 2019)

10. Hometown Inequality: Race, Class, and Representation in American Local Politics (Brian F. Schaffner et al., Cambridge University Press, 2020)

6. Missouri’s unfair election rules stack the deck against Ferguson’s black residents (Sarah F. Anzia, The Washington Post, 29 August 2014)

11. Big City, Big Turnout? Electoral Participation in American Cities (Neal Caren, Journal of Urban Affairs, vol.

29, no. 1, 2007) 12. America’s Uneven Democracy: Race, Turnout, and Representation in City Politics (Zoltan L. Hajnal, Cambridge University Press, November 2009) 13. How Ferguson exposes the racial bias in local elections (Brian F. Schaffner et al., The Washington Post, 15 August 2014)

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