This set of Insights have been built to be as broad, general and universally applicable as possible.
All Heuristics should be used with caution – trends and truisms will differ by Market, Sport, Demographic and many other variables – please make sure that all Heuristics are relevant to your use case before applying.
These Heuristics intend to get you to the start line in client conversations, not the finish.
If you have specific questions or require support, please discuss with the Heuristics captains.
If you require visuals from these Heuristics, please contact the ‘Knowing Fans Best’ team.
The Fan Landscape
We believe there to be five key foundations to the origination of a sports fan.
Made by 14:
The origination of a person's sports fandom is more likely to be shaped and set by their midteens than any other life stage
Sharing Strengthens Passions:
The probability of fans being highly passionate greatly increases if that passion is shared with one or more other people.
Sell Heroes & Teams:
Team sports are becoming more individual led, with younger fans being more likely to be drawn to the sport via individual athletes.
New Origination plays, same retention tricks:
While there are more mediums for engaging with sport than ever before, live and ondemand media remain key in creating passionate fandom.
Understand. Care. Belong:
The most common barriers in the route to fandom are lack of understanding, caring, or a sense of belonging.
Made by 14
Sharing strengthens passions
Sell heroes + teams
Understand. Care. Belong.
New origination plays, same retention tricks
The Fan Landscape
‘ ’
Globally, sports fans are shaped in their teens – with 47% of Sports Fans being ‘Made by 14’.
% fandoms
All Markets Aggregated
Age of fan origination
Whilst our interests and tastes change throughout our lives like Film, Politics and Food… Sporting Fandom, like music, is heavily influenced in your younger years.
Fandom does vary by Market, for example it peaks later in India at 21 and younger in more mature countries such as Switzerland & UK at 10-12.
When looking to build audiences and growing fandom, don’t neglect engaging with young audiences (Under 14) – if you don’t get them by 14, there’s 50% less likelihood you’ll convert them.
Target Parents in Young Families too – Across all markets, children are spending more time with their parents than ever before.
Made by 14
The Fan Landscape
When looking at sports with huge & loyal followings – fans typically originate even younger into this fandom.
Originating Younger = Originating Larger
Rightsholders & Brands must recognise that to build fandom and develop audiences – creating engagement tactics for juniors is essential.
New mediums present new opportunities – Are Channels, Platforms and Content Slates optimised to deliver brilliant experiences for younger audiences?
How are you optimising in each Market?
Different platforms have varying younger audiences in each Market –Did you know that India has 200m Snapchat Users!?
Originating fans younger is critical in driving growth in customer lifetime value. Across market and sports, fans who are ‘made by 14’ are more passionate, engaged, valuable, and active.
Fans originating by 14 is relevant to all business areas of Sports & Entertainment organisations.
In creating more engaged, passionate, valuable and active fans, this fuels each Audience Group: Broadcast, Social Media, Web & App and Fan Data … … along with all Revenue Lines: Media, Sponsorship, Retail & Licensing and Ticketing & Premium.
The Fan Landscape
An isolated fan, with no one to share their passion with, is far less likely to be passionate than a highly connected fan with multiple connections to share their passion.
Least Connected Fans
Isolated Fans
likely to be highly passionate
Most Connected Fans
One connection Two connections Multiple connections
likely to be highly passionate
likely to be highly passionate
likely to be highly passionate
Sports organisations should prioritise identifying isolated fans, building communities for them, and giving fans compelling reasons to share and advocate on their behalf.
Bayern Munich’s Watch Party in China, NFL on the Southbank, and Wimbldeon “The Hill in New York” are all active attempts to build new communities.
WNBA fans are 4x more likely to be Isolated than NBA Fans (28% vs 7%)
3 in 5 Fans who don’t share Fandom with traditional social groups actively engage with sport in online communities.
Gen Z are more likely to be drawn to a team sport through individuals – but less likely to be attracted to individual sports through athletes – a good strategy sells both athletes and teams.
Sports fandom originating through individual athletes in…
The narrative that Gen Z are drawn to sport through individuals is rife – but this only stands true for Team Sports!
Fans have ALWAYS been attracted to team sports through individuals – of Basketball Fans originating in the 1990s, 31% of them were drawn through individual athletes (or one Individual Athlete!)
Individual talent has less influence on younger generations in following individual sports –where 27% of Baby Boomers state this as the reason for their fandom.
Growth in the WNBA can be attributed in large parts to the growth of individuals such as Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark. Similar is true in Women’s Rugby with Ilona Maher having more followers than the All Blacks.
Chicago Bulls last won an NBA Championship in 1998 – but are the third most followed NBA team, demonstrating that where fans join for individuals, they stay for the community.
Baby Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z
Individual Sports Team Sports
If you haven’t converted someone to a fan by 30, your chances of doing so begin to slim. Only 14% of fans of a sport becomeso after their 20’s.
Of sports fandoms are
There is limited market precedent for sports growing significant fandom with fans after the age of 30.
Formula 1 is a great example of building Fandom after the age of 14 – where 67% of Fans are generated after 14.
How have they tackled it?
Few sports consider those over 30 who aren’t engaging as target markets – but some have to good results … Drive to Survive
Sprint Race Location Changes F1TV
Localised Comms Driver Walk-ons F1 e-sports series Grill the Grid Retail Partnerships
The Impact
+26% increase in declared passion of ‘Drive to Survive’ viewers who also watch F1 monthly
The Fan Landscape
44% of fans created in the 20 years preceding the Millenium were created by watching linear TV. This number has almost halved for the 20 years after the year 2000.
1980-1999
Of fans created by watching linear TV
Reliance on linear TV for growing fandoms has decreased significantly in the last 30 years, with large rises in the influence of Social Media, Gaming, Podcasts, On-Demand Highlights since 2000.
Games like EA SPORTS FC (Console), Fantasy Premier League (Online) or Video Content such as F1 Drive to Survive are successful examples of routes to fandom that have developed in recent years.
2000 - 2019
Audience growth initiatives need to be delivered across a more than ever previously.
Identifying your target markets and understanding where they are interacting is a key stage in developing future fans.
Of fans created by watching linear TV
One of the key barriers to fandom is people not understanding your sport – with the likelihood of learning about your sport decreasing later in life.
Not everyone understands your Sport
Ask yourself -Does a potential fan have enough basic knowledge of the sport to take their first steps toward fandom?
If the target audience lacks a foundational understanding, sports organisations must work to remove the complexity or increase their knowledge to lower the barrier to entry.
Why aren’t you a fan?
Football (Soccer) has a huge global following, in large part due to the simplicity of the game and ease of understanding the format.
”Simplifying of Formats (Hundred and Rugby Sevens)
Explainer Videos
Tone of Voice shifts on Social and across channels – assume zero knowledge.
Social Media breakdowns – “Why was this impressive?”
Gamification – Learn about the rules to beat your mates!
Case Study:
The Hundred was developed to provide a simplified Cricketing Format – more easily digestible to new and younger audiences – to brilliant results.
The Fan Landscape
Some people don’t see how your sport can be exciting(!?) and need to be brought on a journey to have their eyes opened.
Can a potential fan connect with your sport – its teams, athletes, competitions and stories?
Do they feel excitement, curiosity, or empathy in what happens next?
If fans don’t feel a connection to the sport, sports organisations must find ways to spark excitement and create meaningful opportunities for fans to engage with it.
Challenge yourself to think:
When was the last time I started engaging with a new sport – and what was it that got me engaged with that sport?
Why aren’t you a fan?
”MLB has introduced a ‘Pitch Clock’ to enhance the pace and excitement of the game – leading to substantial increases in fan attendance, viewership, and social media engagement.
Rugby introduced the 50:22 Rule –meaning less players in the defensive line and encouraging more exciting rugby.
Linking the Sport to its personalities –utilising social media and VOD content, sparks interest and curiosity within new audiences – like ‘One Shot’, ‘All or Nothing’ and ‘Cheer’.
US Sports like Basketball and American Football have entertainment and half time shows to keep excitement high, even when the action is paused.
Some people don’t believe your sport is ‘for people like them’ – or that it doesn’t represent who they are.
Does a potential fan feel represented by the sport?
Can they find role models or a community of fans to connect with?
If fans don’t feel included in the sports community, sports organisations must focus on engaging and serving this audience, rather than catering primarily to their existing fanbase
Why aren’t you a
fan?
Nike have launched multiple initiatives to keep women in sport.
Whether making it more accessible or providing the right equipment (think sports bras and hair bands) –their aim is to make it easier to belong in sport for women.
DAZN and Visa created an onplatform fan activation partnership covering the knockout stages of UEFA Women’s Champions League on DAZN.
The Impact:
Adding a social and interactive element to the coverage aided in reducing this barrier and fostering a sense of community among women’s football audiences.
Younger audiences give more attention to sport per week than older generations - with Gen Z at 8.9 hours per week, compared to 7.2 hours (Baby Boomers), 7.2 hours (Gen X) and 7.9 hours (Millennials)
Z sports consumption vs Baby Boomers
Hours consuming sport (per week)
ports fans were asked to detail how many hours they spend consuming sport across a variety of channels (TV, Social, Gaming, etc.). Results showed that fans are consuming more sport than ever before,and Gen Z are spending on average nearly 9 hours a week with sport, which is 23% more than the average Baby Boomer.
Gen Z consume sports content more through Video Games, Podcasts, Reading, Social Media than any prior generation, but are less reliant on TV & Streaming.
Diversifying Channel Mix
More
sport content consumed on social media by Gen Z than Baby Boomers
Traditionally, watching sport on TV broadcast has been the dominant channel for the consumption of sports content over any other.
However, as modern media proliferates and digital channels mature, younger generations are spending increasingly less time per week consuming sport on TV and more time on other channels.
Gen Z are the first generation consuming more sport on social media than any other form of media.
When looking at touchpoints that are most credited for building sporting knowledge within Gen Z, 'Social Media' sits at 35%, compared to 33% for 'Watching Live'. 'Watching Live' is 62% for Baby Boomers.
Which Channel would you most credit with building your sporting knowledge?
Building Knowledge in the Younger Generations
Younger audiences are less reliant on a single touchpoint for learning about their favourite sports than older generations.
Social media channels are algorithmic, with feeds being constantly curated to match changing desires – meaning fans are getting served the content they consume.
A balanced approach is crucial – 33% of Gen Z still get their knowledge from Watching Live sport on TV.
Currently, 66% of consumption is achieved by just 20% of fans (our core fans), however, this doesn’t mean we also shouldn’t focus some of our time on the long tail.
Big Head & Long Tail of Consumption
A small, dedicated proportion of audiences are responsible for two thirds of sports consumption.
This ‘big head & long tail’ isn’t unique to sport; you see the same patterns in entertainment, whether that’s Spotify listeners or Netflix viewers.
The fundamental shape of this curve will never change. However, the amount of consumption it represents can be optimised.
Sports IP owners that will grow the fastest over the next decade will be the ones that shift some focus away from the top 20% and focus on optimize the engagement of the 80% of fans in the long tail.
The Fan Landscape
Casual Fans know 3x less than Core Fans about sport.
Knowledge Sparks Curiosity
Greater sports knowledge creates curiosity, which in turn builds further knowledge. This establishes a virtuous cycle building more passion as a result.
More knowledgeable vs Casual Fans
Gen Z state that increasing their knowledge in a sport is the largest reason they would begin to follow it – spark curiosity!
Knowledge is built in a variety of ways - Gaming fans say they know 2x more about a sport than non-gamers.
Gaming as a Knowledge Driver
Sports fans who spend time consuming sports via video games are more knowledgeable about the sport. This constitutes knowledge covering: Players, Leagues, Rules and Fan Culture.
Gaming offers accessibility and depth, guiding users from a simple entry point and builds obsession. For example, Fantasy Premier League's auto-select feature helps beginners set up teams without requiring extensive knowledge.
Create Gaming Experiences
Build gamified experiences to engage new audiences beyond existing formats & channels.
Reach & Engage Gaming Audiences
Where your IP is used in gaming contexts you do not own or operate, leverage key moments (e.g. game releases) or mechanisms (e.g. cobranded competitions) to better engage & acquire these audiences in more relevant ways
50% of sports fandoms are no longer at their peak.
Of sports fandoms are no longer at their peak
Declining Fandoms
50% of fans say they used to be more engaged with, or consumed more of, a sport than they do today.
The amount of fandom decline differs for each sport, with cricket the largest (64%) and Rugby Union the least (34%).
Friction is the enemy
Fan Friction, such as a reduction of disposable income, time or injury, is the primary reason for half of sports fandoms to fall from their peak.
The biggest driver of declining fandom is new friction rather than decreasing motivation.
Friction causes fandom decline
For all ages of fans, the introduction of friction is a bigger cause of fandom decline, than a loss of interest or motivation.
Life friction is what’s most prevalent earlier in our lives. These are things that happen to us individually, not collectively such as having a baby or a change in employment.
Understand and identify fan barriers
Life friction is unavoidable but needs to be managed and addressed to keep fans engaged.
NBC used AI to create personalised daily Olympic recaps for fans with less time.
Of sports fandoms will see a decline because of a decrease in motivation
CBS added SpongeBob SquarePants characters to the Super Bowl broadcast to engage fans whose kids weren’t interested.
% fandoms that have declined
90% of the fandoms that are made by 14, decline before aged 30.
Beware Life Friction
Made by 30
Age of Fandom Decline
Life friction is the biggest cause of fandom decline when we’re young.
As we age, external friction which reduces motivation becomes a larger factor in fandom decline.
The personal challenges fans encounter as they progress through life stages compete for their time, money and attention. This reduces the share of time & wallet sports organisations are able to command.
Fans are 21% more likely to be an advocate when they understand the Clubs values
“I strongly agree that my favourite team…”
“has values I understand” Advocates “acts consistent with its values” Advocates “Prioritises its fans” Advocates
Fans that understand club values are more likely to make noise about the club both online or in person. (This research involved fans of major European Football Clubs).
Therefore, the perception that a fan has of your organisation will directly impact the likelihood that they will be advocating for you, and, in turn, drawing in additional casual fans as they do so.
Fans are more likely to be advocates the more they engage with you - fans in your owned and operated audiences are twice as likely to advocate than your earned audiences. 6% of Earned Audiences advocate, 12% of Owned & Operated Audiences.
Owned &
Operated
Audience As likely to be advocates
Earned Audience
O&O Audiences are Advocates
Advocates are defined as fans who actively promote their favourite team online or to their social network.
12% of fans engaging on owned & operated channels are likely to be advocates, versus 6% engaging on earned channels.
Engage to Grow Advocates
Build communities that feel exclusive and exist globally to grow deeper engagement.
Openly involve fans in decision-making processes. Create platforms to make fan voices visible and enable core fans to connect directly to casual fans.
From 2023 onwards, annualised revenue for sports IP owners will grow at a +5% CAGR over the next 10 years, which means sport will surpass the revenues generated by traditional television.
Top Entertainment Mediums by Annualized Revenues ($bn)
Sports IP is ENORMOUS
Annualised revenues generated by sports IP were higher than revenues generated within streaming, literature, and all other entertainment industries. The only exceptions to this are gaming & traditional TV, with sport expected to overtake the latter by 2033.
All signs point to a 5% CAGR
Whilst an additional $101bn sounds like huge growth in 10 years, it only requires an average growth rate per year of 5%. Global inflation has been higher than that over the last few years at 8%, with Global Digital Advertising Spend has grown at 16%.
Rightsholders and organisations who obsess about knowing what fans want and providing it will exceed 5% CAGR
From Supply-Led Approaches
Increased focus on supply-side factors first (e.g. scheduling, event formats, play availability) will grow slower than the market.
…To Demand Led Growth
Increased focus on understanding what fans want and providing it will exceed 5% CAGR.
By shifting towards a fan-centric approach, we can create more opportunities for sports products and commercial models to grow, ultimately benefiting everyone involved in the industry.
By 2033, Sports IP is expected to increase from $159bn to $260bn in the next decade. This growth will be driven by more fans, more attention, diversified sports experiences and direct value capture
Direct Value Capture
More fans, more attention
Better sporting products
Direct Value Capture
The Long-Tail
200K+ sports IP owners for 7% of the market
The Middle
282 sports IP owners for 54% of the market
The Big 20 sports IP owners for 39% of the market
e.g.,
Sport has exhibited stable economic growth for decades. Even during an economic downturn (2008), while spend on other leisure activities, like going to the cinema, tracks with GDP, spend on sport remains resilient.
Better Sporting Products
We’re seeing more disruption to established sports IP owners. Whether that’s through challenger leagues like LIV Golf or through private investment from private equity flooding in. These disruptors don’t believe in the industry’s ability to service that demand and have identified that inefficiencies in the industry leave room for innovation and optimisation.
More fans, more attention
New leagues and private investors are bullish on demand. Bullish that future growth will be driven by more fans spending more money, paying more attention, with greater levels of passion than ever before.
39% of annualised revenue from sports IP owners is driven by the top 20 IP owners.
Top 20 account for 39% of Revenue
39% of annualised revenue from sports IP owners was driven by the top 20 IP owners. The “medium” sized IP owners, who generated over $100m of annualised revenues in 2023, account for 54% of the industry’s revenues. That leaves 7% of revenues unaccounted for which is driven by the remaining 200k+ IP owners.
Football is the world biggest sport
Of the $159bn in revenue generated by sports IP in 2023, the biggest sports are:
Football/Soccer (34%)
American Football (12%)
Basketball (8%)
(Roger Federer)
Whilst all sports rights holders have the opportunity to grow, conditions will favour the biggest. 55% of 'The Big' will outperform the market average growth rate, 15% of the medium, and only 5% of the Long Tail
Visibility Drives Conversation
More than ever, market forces favour the big. Greater visibility creates greater conversation, and that conversation demands greater visibility. This network effect has cemented a competitive advantage for the Big.
faster than the industry
The Medium
15% will grow faster than the industry
The Big will Benefit
For that reason, we project that 55%, over half, will outperform the market, the average of everyone else on this chart, in the next decade. Compare that to 15% of the Medium and 5% of the long-tail
The Long-Tail 5% will grow faster than the industry
46% of the global population will be sports fans by 2033 (4bn), this is up from 3.2bn in 2023.
More Global Sports Fans
Due to the global population increasing, in the next ten years we will see more fans paying more attention to sports IP than ever before.
These underlying value drivers can be understood through three fan measures:
- Volume - “how many”
- Audience value - “who”
- Frequency - “how often“.
In addition to this, there is expected to be a +37% increase in global middle class by 2030.
There will be a potential 2 billion generation alpha sports fans by 2025. We know fans are made by 14, but we shouldn’t treat everyone under this age in the same way.
By 2025, 25% of the population will be Generation Alpha. We know that fans are made by 14, but it’s important that we don’t treat everyone under 14 the same. They engage with content differently, so we need to ensure that we cater for each of their preferences.
E.g.Co-branded RetailProducts
Personalised, Mastery, Expertise
E.g.Junior Memberships
But these fans have varying needs
Individualistic, interactive, inclusive, experiential – Generation Alpha are our Future Fans and need prioritising. You need to create different future fan experience, like the examples we have listed, to allow you to meet the varying needs of children under 14 and nurture fandom for life.
Whilst $159bn represents the total annualised revenue for sports IP owners in 2023, this doesn’t even come close to half of the total annualised revenue being generated by organisations leveraging sports and its IP.
Revenue by organisations leveraging sports IP
by Sports IP
Sports IP is not limited to Owners
Brands, media, and other businesses partner with sports properties to increase the IP’s overall value, benefiting the sport, fans, and intermediaries.
By bringing fan relationships in-house, sports IP owners can capture more D2C and B2B revenue, enhance fan experiences, and retain greater value. Meanwhile, third parties can be advantageous in the secondary market, offering sponsorship fees for official marketplace rights, a share of resale revenues without bearing sales costs, and valuable end-user data.
Not all relationships are optimised
However, there are several instances where this relationship is not sufficiently optimized. Where inefficiencies and misaligned incentives cause suboptimal outcomes for IP owners and fans. These instances will lessen in the next ten years as direct relationships hold the key to capturing more D2C revenue, B2B revenue and ultimately delivering better fan experiences.
The Fan Landscape
The next ten years will see more sports IP owners capturing greater value through direct relationships, but that won’t alwaysbe at the expense of 3rd parties.
Sports IP is not limited to Owners
While bringing these opportunities in-house can yield higher margins, relying on third parties often remains the simplest path. Sports IP holders will need to consider the following:
Sports organizations often hand over profitable revenue streams like retail, hospitality, and sponsorship rights to third parties, inadvertently leaking value. However, in the coming decade, forward-thinking rights holders will increasingly reclaim these opportunities through direct fan relationships, while still partnering strategically where third parties truly add value.
Not all relationships are optimised
Brand Control: How much control do you want over they brand?
Ambition: How does this fit into team objectives?
Fan Growth: Do they want control over first party data?
Risk/Cost: How much risk does the organisation want to take on?
Responsibility: How much responsibility do you want over the end-to-end business?
Annual revenues realised by European clubs through the sale of European soccer shirts
revenues are being capture by third party organisations Club merchandise revenues currently stand at €1.2bn across the top five European soccer leagues, but this is just 73% of the total market for official merchandise.
24% of revenues are lost through wholesale margin loss, and 3% through supply chain costs. That’s 27% (c.€440m) of revenue generated through the strength of sports IP (your badge) being captured by organisations benefitting from sports fans’ desire to connect with their favourite clubs and players.
Whilst this may make sense for the top clubs due to their global reach, does this make sense for clubs where proximity to the stadium often dictates fandom?
Representing just 1% of the overall annualised sports industry revenues
-£388m -£55m
Radio, linear broadcast television, and physical print press are set to reduce between 2023 and 2030, whilst online press, streaming, and social media will see growth in global media consumption in minutes. The overall growth in media consumption will grow by 20% between 2023 and 2030.
increase in media consumption, with sport increasingly taking a greater share by 2030.
Consumption will continue to grow
There will be an estimated +20% increase in media consumption, with sport increasingly taking a greater share by 2030.
Properties need to be growing their unique consumption funnel, from social audiences right down to their known and transacting database, and targeting an average ratio of 9:1between their earned audience and their owned and operated audience
Audience Sports Fan Anyone who consumes a sports (self-stated)
Audience Core Fan Sports fans who are in the top 20% of fans for consumption
Audience Casual Fan Sports fans who are not in the top 20% of fans for consumption
Audience Earned Earned media – rightsholders’ content or campaigns which receives shares, mentions etc. on Social Media (without payment), or other free promotion by other publications or users.
Audience Owned A fan who visits a Rightsholder’s Digital Channels (web or app) or within the rightsholder’s database.
Audience Operated Operated channels are typically rightsholder’s accounts on 3rd party platforms, primarily social media accounts.
Audience Direct Rightsholders can use Direct Marketing for those who are in their database and opted in to marketing on email, app or web campaigns.
Audience Retention Retention is the ability to drive repeat attendance at future events. The retention rate measures how many attendees (as % of previous event’s purchasers) return to purchase tickets for subsequent events.
Audience Acquisition Acquisition refers to the process of attracting new customers or attendees to an event. It focuses on expanding the audience base by reaching individuals who haven’t attended before.
Businesses Sports IP Owner Sports IP owners are individuals or organizations that own the intellectual property (IP) rights to sports teams, events, or athletes.
Research Friction Inthecontextofthisdocument- Personal challenges faced throughout key stages of life that compete for time, money, and attention, making it increasingly difficult for fans to maintain engagement with sport.
Research Motivation Inthecontextofthisdocument-An individuals’ drive or enthusiasm to engage in sport.
