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A Publication of the Wisconsin Sheep Breeders Cooperative
Winter 2011 Volume 23, Number 1
Expansion: Is Now the Time? One of the featured speakers on the program for the 2011 Arlington Sheep Day slated for March 5 will be Dr. Richard Ehrhardt, Small Ruminant Exten sion Specialist at Michigan State University, who will focus on overcoming expansion barriers in a commercial sheep operation. Ehrhardt, in addition to his role with MSU, manages a commercial flock of 500 ewes and utilizes an accelerated lambing system. With lamb prices at record levels, in a market that weekly flirts with new highs, it only seems natural that producers would think about adding ewes. But for anyone that weathered the industry’s much trumpeted Blueprint for Expansion back in the early 80s, memories of boom to bust are still all too fresh. Certainly fresh enough to question the wisdom of the current rush to expand, especially into an uncertain future fueled by record feed grain prices, rising fuel costs and the prospect of inflationary interest rates. So what’s different from 1980? Actually, a lot: Dave Johnson,
Vice President Marketing, Sheep & Veal, at Equity Cooperative Livestock Sales Association in Baraboo, recently provided his perspective on opportunity in the sheep industry. Johnson tells producers that the time is now if one is positioned to take advantage of a bull market in the lamb trade. “For one thing, the demand is there,” Johnson claims, “and it will be steady three to five years out.” He points out that the situation is nowhere close to what producers faced in the early 80s, with exploding interest rates, lamb prices below fifty cents, and rampant competition from Australia and New Zealand. “Interest is at 4%, lambs are steady at $1.40 and globally, we have the lowest inventory of sheep and lambs on record.” He acknowledges the only country with an increase may be China, but he attributes that climb in numbers to perhaps a better job of taking inventory. Even so, he feels there’s no threat from China, or from our old competitors Australia and New Zealand, pointing to a precipitous
Growing the nation’s sheep industry might not be on the minds of these ewe lambs, but it will definitely be on the agenda for the Arlington Sheep Day scheduled for March 5 at the UW Arlington Agricultural Research Station Public Events Facility. Check out the program elsewhere in this issue and plan on attending. (Photo by Geri Kucera, Elmhurst, Il, titled “Who’s Coming?” The photo placed second in the 2010 Wisconsin Sheep & Wool Festival Photo Contest under “Any Other Sheep or Wool Photo.)
drop in stock ewe numbers Down Under and weather issues in New Zealand that have recently affected flocks. Johnson also points to a generational change right here at home that is slowly but steadily growing demand for lamb. “The World War II vets are disappearing,” he says and with them their revulsion for military rations based on mutton that arrived at mess halls frozen in burlap. Replacing the vets are their more affluent grandchildren, who pay rapt attention to cooking magazines and websites, and who aren’t afraid to tackle a menu with lamb as its centerpiece. He also notes the pressure from an ethnic market whose share of nationwide lamb sales the industry has only recently begun to gauge. Johnson claims the real picture of how many market lambs the ethnic trade absorbs has yet to emerge noting that “No secondary markets in the Midwest have even been counted.” Asked about the skyrocketing price of feed grains and its potential sobering effect on flock expansion, Johnson is quick to respond. “If you have sunshine and fresh water, you can make lamb.” And he asserts, a producer can still pencil finishing lambs off with 6.00 corn, if other input costs are kept under control. That might take a really sharp pencil, especially with the corn index at a 29-month high as of December 29, ending the day at 5.82. Scarier still is the recent report that a Singapore-based trader placed a 2011 target of 8.50 a bushel on Chicago corn futures, while some market prognosticators have taken it higher still. Even so Johnson wasn’t deterred, claiming that last thirty pounds to finish weight on a grass fed lamb can come from grain and still leave a solid margin for the producer. Even though he feels we will see record commodity prices between now and June, he also suggests that 1.80 lambs are a distinct possibility. “We just sold some eighty pounders at 1.80 at Johnson Creek and a recent New
What’s In It For Me? Anyone considering membership in the Wisconsin Sheep Breeders Cooperative could probably be excused for asking that question. After all, when money is tight, it’s easy to set aside things like magazine subscriptions and dues. But one of the perks of WSBC membership shouldn’t be dismissed so quickly. Free classified ads on the new Wisconsin Sheep Breeders website are now available to co-op members. There’s no specific word count requirement, but we ask that ads be limited to approximately three lines. Ads will run for three months, after which they are removed unless the member asks to renew for another three month period. Anyone wishing to place a free classified ad must be a current WSBC member. Submit ad copy to the WSBC office by emailing the text to wisbc@centurytel.net. If you haven’t checked out the new website, go to www.wisbc.com. The Wisconsin Sheep Breeders Cooperative reserves the right to reject ads not deemed appropriate for the website.
Holland (PA) report showed fifty pounders going for 2.24 to 3.00.” (A December 27 market report for non-traditional sales at New Holland showed 50-60 pounders still at 2.16 to 2.28.) But if the industry is bent on expansion, where will the stock ewes come from? Johnson says the West continues to have an ample supply of reasonably priced seedstock which could form the basis for buildups. “We’re still seeing aged western ewes available from $125 to $200,” he maintains and suggests that producers should keep their flocks tightly culled even if they are building numbers, especially with cull prices currently running
from fifty cents to a dollar. Are the stars finally aligned for a turnaround in the sheep industry? Possibly: After thirty years of declining numbers, it might just be time to put pencil to paper again and call your banker. Joining Ehrhardt on the clinic program will be Cody Hiemke, representing Niman Ranch and the American Lamb Board, plus Todd Taylor, Shepherd at the UW Arlington Sheep Unit. For more information on the University of Wisconsin-Madison sponsored Arlington Sheep Day, see the complete program in this issue or contact Dave Thomas, 608 2634306 email dlthomas@wisc.edu .
Plan Ahead for Photo Contest! The snow is falling and lambs will soon be on the ground – both perfect opportunities to grab your camera and start taking photographs for the Wisconsin Sheep & Wool Festival’s Annual Photo Contest. The 2011 photo contest will feature the following categories: Scenic; Kids & Sheep; Just Lambs; and Any Other Sheep or Wool Photo. In addition, the contest offers a category for photos taken by youths aged 18 and younger. Photographers may enter more than one category and they may enter more than one photograph in each category. Entries should be 8 x 10” color
or black and white prints, and they should not be mounted. A $5 entry fee should accompany each entry. Premiums will be awarded based on the number of contest entries. Finalist entries will be selected based on clarity, content, com position and appeal, and visitors to the Wisconsin Sheep & Wool Festival, slated for September 9-11, will vote for the winning photos. All entries must be postmarked by August 20. Additional contest details will be released at a later date. For more information contact Jane Metcalf at tjmetcalf@centurytel.net or 608 868-3268.