New Zealand Retail Market Overview | May 2024

New Zealand Retail Market Overview

New Zealand Overview 1

New Zealand Statistics

Population - New Zealand’s population was 5.31 million as of December 2023.

- Between 2018 and 2023, population growth only tracked above Statistics New Zealand’s high growth scenario during 2020.

- The medium and longer term prospects are favourable for population growth. Even if it only picks up to the medium growth rate after 2023 we would see an extra 237,490 people by 2028. If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, population will lift by about 373,220 people during the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.

NEW ZEALAND POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Source: StatsNZ Number of People

If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, population will lift by about 373,220 people during the fiveyear period from 2024 to 2028.

Net Migration

- Since the opening of New Zealand’s borders in mid-2022, net migration has been gradually increasing. Net migration has come back to positive territory, even surpassing pre-Covid levels. This has been mainly driven by the arrival of non-New Zealand citizens, supported by policies from the new government to attract and retain skilled migrants.

- Arrival of migrants exceeded departures by around 131,000 in the year to February 2024, close to the record figure of November 2023 (circa 142,000).

- Net migration is currently at record highs and is expected to stabilise around 110,000 in a years time.

NEW ZEALAND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION (ROLLING YEAR ENDED)

Source: StatsNZ

131,000

Arrival of migrants exceeded departures by around in the year to February 2024, close to the record figure of November 2023 (circa 142,000).

Tourism Arrivals

- Overseas visitor arrivals totaled 3.10 million in year to February 2024, up 1.15 million on the prior year.

- The level of overseas visitors is still below pre-Covid levels, as 3.88 million overseas visitors entered New Zealand in the 2019 calendar year. Given the strong rate of recovery, visitor numbers are expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

- In the February 2024 year, most of the arrivals came from Australia (1.15 million visitors, corresponding to 37% of total visitors), followed by the United States of America (496,000, 16% of total visitors), United Kingdom (279,000, 9% of total visitors), and China (217,000, 7% of total visitors).

MONTHLY OVERSEAS VISITOR ARRIVALS INTO NEW ZEALAND

Number of Visitors

Source: StatsNZ

Source: Stats NZ

2022 – 2024 Cruise Ship Arrivals

- According to the New Zealand Cruise Association, between August 2022 and April 2024 approximately 1.07 million cruise ships guests landed in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch (through Lyttelton port). Out of the total, 38% of the cruise ships guests landed in Auckland (409,115 passengers), followed by Wellington (33%, with 346,778 passengers) and Christchurch (29%, 309,506 passengers).

- In terms of cruise ships, during this period Auckland received a total of 220 cruise ships, whilst Wellington and Christchurch received a total of 188 and 158, respectively.

Source: New Zealand Cruise Association

Inflation - Inflation continues to come down from its peak in Q2 2022. During Q1 2024, annual inflation dropped to 4.0%, lower than during Q4 2023 and Q3 2023 (4.7% and 5.6%, respectively). However, non-tradeable inflation reached 5.8% in Q1 2024, almost the same figure registered in the previous quarter (5.9%), exposing its stickiness.

- Domestically generated non-tradeable inflation is an important measure because this is the inflation component that the RBNZ can directly influence through monetary policy. The RBNZ’s hawkish action of hiking the OCR by 525 basis points since late 2021 in order to combat inflation has clearly started to suppress aggregate demand.

- Some economists believe the OCR has already peaked at its current level (5.50%). Also, some economists believe that the RBNZ could start cutting the OCR around Q4 2024, after the real economy experiences the full impact of the significant tightening of monetary policy.

StatsNZ, ANZ, Westpac, RBNZ

- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues its fight against inflation. The diagnosis in the last two years was clear: mounting pressures were positioning the inflation rate way outside its desired target of 1% to 3%. The medicine prescribed by the RBNZ was also obvious: monetary tightening via an aggressive dosage of high OCR to tackle a febrile economy and bring inflation down to non-threatening levels; especially domestic-generated inflation.

- The medicine is revealing its effect, running slowly through the system, taking the excess steam out of the economy. The effects of the RBNZ’s tightening monetary policy are having a clear impact on GDP through weaker consumption by households and lacklustre private investment. Both the market and the RBNZ continue to forecast subdued economic conditions for the rest of 2024.

- After increasing the OCR by 525 basis points from late 2021 up to May 2023, the RBNZ pivoted to a ‘high for longer approach’, letting the cycle run its course. Expectations of further OCR rises dissipated as Q1 2024 unfolded. However, the Q1 CPI data will be somewhat concerning for the RBNZ. Domestic inflation pressures remain acute, particularly concentrated in services sectors. The balance of risks is now tilted towards the RBNZ cutting OCR rates later than August, which until now has been the baseline consensus expectation for most economists. The RBNZ will likely await confirmation from the hard data before it pivots to looser policy, which means rate cuts may not be on the table until November.

New Zealand’s Main Economic Drivers

According to the latest information published by StatsNZ, in the December 2023 quarter the negative economic growth (-0.1%) was mainly due to the following:

- In terms of macro industries, a fall in the goods-producing industries by 0.1% and a slow increase in both primary and services industries.

- In terms of industries, a fall in wholesale trade by 1.8%, retail trade by 0.9%, and manufacturing by 0.4%.

Auckland CBD 2

Auckland CBD Overview

The Auckland CBD contains several distinct retail precincts, bordered to the north and extending to the east and west along the harbour edge, then south along the Queen Street Valley spine, extending from the Harbour edge south to the “Midtown” precinct. At various locations along this spine, distinct smaller precincts have formed on streets parallel to Queen Street.

Due to the sloping geography down to the harbour edge, Queen St, located in a valley, has naturally developed into the main pedestrian thoroughfare due to its gentle incline. The harbour edge around the Commercial Bay and Britomart precincts have developed into a lively retail and entertainment district, populated by a diverse range of retail boutiques, international fashion and luxury brands and premium dining experiences and serviced by the corporate occupiers of the local premium office towers. This area is a “go to” for visitors to the city and largely defines the visitor experience.

Queen St itself is dominated by brands flagship stores. The adjacent, more intimate, laneways and precincts, such as High St, Lorne St, Vulcan Ln, Fort St, and Elliott St, provide a slower pace, with most streets dominated

by pedestrian focused streetscapes. It is here where we find small boutiques and fashion labels interspersed with street food eateries that represent the ethnically diverse Auckland population. Anchored on the ridge between Albert and Hobson Streets, is the Casino precinct. Unmissable due to the presence of the iconic Auckland Sky Tower, the Casino precinct is an entertainment mecca. Outside the Sky City Casino, the surrounding laneway of Federal St is dedicated to some of Auckland’s most celebrated dining establishments.

Located at the southern reaches of the CBD is the Theatre Precinct. Centred on Auckland’s “Civic Plaza”, Aotea Square. This is where live theatre shows, large and small, are shown. Going forward, this precinct, along with the Midtown and Casino precincts, will be serviced by Auckland’s extended underground metro rail system, the Te Waihorotiu Metro Rail Station. Due to open in 2025, Te Waihorotiu Metro Rail Station is set to handle the greatest volume of commuter traffic on the metro system and will form the impetus for increased highdensity development locally.

1. Britomart

A concentration of heritage buildings east of Queen Street has been refurbished and offers an eclectic mix of retail, food and office space. Britomart has a number of brand flagships within Auckland including Chanel, Tiffany & Co, WORLD, Zambesi and Allbirds.

2. Luxury Retail Sector

Luxury retailers have established themselves between Customs and Shortland Streets. The eastern side of the city along Customs St should anticipate further interest from tenants due to the adjacencies.

3. Sky City

The Sky Tower and Sky City casino are located along the CBD’s Western Ridge. This is a popular entertainment precinct featuring Auckland’s only Casino and a good catchment to accommodation providers.

4. Viaduct

The Viaduct is located at Auckland’s waterfront and forms a vibrant community of office, residential and food & beverage. The Marina and Ferry terminal is a destination of choice for a number of tourists and Auckland residents.

5. Fast Fashion Precinct

This area lies between Shortland Street and Wellesley Street and has traditionally had strong fashion adjacencies, anchored by Farmers, Cotton On Mega, Smith & Caughey's Department Store, Nike flagship store and Footlocker flagship store. This area is a natural thoroughfare for students. Opportunities are scarce with competition coming from both international, domestic and the sitting tenants of Queen St sites.

6. Cultural District

The Southern end of Queen Street is a strong entertainment and cultural precinct. There are bowling lanes, cinemas, theatres and a number of small format food offers near Aotea Square. Te Waihorotiu Metro Rail Station, when completed, will be located in this area.

Auckland CBD Retail Statistics

Based on the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand, during Q4 2023 retail sales (seasonally adjusted) in Auckland were 1.2% lower than Q3 2023, shifting from $11.6 billion to $11.4 billion. In annual terms, over the year to Q4 2023 Auckland retail sales grew by 0.9%, representing a significant slow down on the prior years 7.4% annual growth.

AUCKLAND RETAIL SALES

$14,000

$12,000

$10,000

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$-

- Auckland's population was 1.74 million as of June 2023.

- Following a decline in 2021 and 2022, population growth restarted tracking above Statistics New Zealand’s low growth scenario.

- The medium and longer-term prospects are favourable for population growth. Even if it only picks up to the medium growth rate after 2023 we would see an extra 113,100 people by 2028. If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, the population will lift by about 161,000 people during the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.

Auckland CBD Population

AUCKLAND POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Source: StatsNZ

- Based on the last census conducted in New Zealand, Auckland CBD had a total of 35,110 residents in 2018.

- According to the latest population projections published by StatsNZ, Auckland CBD’s population is expected to reach 62,630 residents during 2048 (an increase of circa 78% in the next three decades).

AUCKLAND CBD POPULATION

Source: StatsNZ

Employees in Auckland CBD

- Over the last two decades, the number of Auckland CBD employees has increased gradually. Based on the latest information released by StatsNZ, in 2023 the total number of employees in Auckland CBD reached 136,070, while the number of retail employees reached 4,635.

- The area with the largest number of employees is Quay Street-Customs Street, with a total of 26,600 people.

- The area with the largest number of retail trade employees in Auckland CBD is Queen Street, with a total of 1,750 people.

Number of Retail Employees 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Pedestrian Count in Auckland CBD

- Based on the latest data published by Heart of the City Auckland, foot traffic in Auckland’s CBD continued to trend upward during the second half of 2023 and January 2024, something that started in early 2022.

- However, the level of foot traffic in Auckland’s CBD throughout 2023 is still hovering below the levels registered during the pre-pandemic years.

AUCKLAND CBD PEDESTRIAN COUNT INDEX

Retail Net

Effective Rents

- Prime CBD rents continue to drop, having decreased steadily over the past five years from $3,883 to $3,650 in Q1 2024. Auckland CBD’s retail sector has been affected by a slow return of office workers to the CBD, lower number of tourists compared to pre-Covid levels and disruptions caused by the construction of the City Rail Link.

AUCKLAND CBD RETAIL NET EFFECTIVE RENTS

Source: CBRE

Newmarket, Auckland

Newmarket Overview

Newmarket is an Inner Eastern suburb flanking Auckland’s CBD. Approximately 5km from the CBD, Newmarket is essentially a satellite commercial centre, drawing its catchment from the affluent Inner Eastern suburbs. Located on a major metro rail and bus junction and sitting adjacent to the State Highway 1 (the main North – South Motorway), Newmarket has a long history as a market town. The suburb continues to grow with increasing levels of commercial office use and residential property.

More recently, local industrial properties have been repurposed to character retail, providing calm retail precincts as a counterpoint to the heavily trafficked Broadway.

The area provides a mix of retail styles from Broadway shopfronts to integrated shopping centres and arcades. The recent completion of the Scentre Group owned by Westfield Newmarket represents the largest single investment in Newmarket retail in more than a decade. This puts Westfield and the wider Newmarket precinct in a strong position to compete with the Sylvia Park Centre further south.

Newmarket has traditionally attracted key retail brands seeking exposure to an affluent demographic. The Newmarket catchment is distinct from the CBD, with shoppers being drawn from the surrounding Eastern suburbs, local corporate offices and Auckland University Newmarket Campus.

Population

Employees NEWMARKET POPULATION

Source: StatsNZ

- Based on the last census conducted in New Zealand, Newmarket had a total of 4,300 residents in 2018.

- According to the latest population projections published by StatsNZ, Newmarket's population is expected to reach 5,810 residents in 2048 (an increase of 35.1% in the next three decades).

- Over the last 23 years, the number of employees in Newmarket has increased gradually. Based on the latest information released by StatsNZ, in 2023 the total number of employees in Newmarket reached 18,900.

- The total number of retail employees in Newmarket reached 3,600, which is a high number for a suburb of only 107 hectares.

EMPLOYEES IN NEWMARKET

- Net effective rents in Newmarket have seen a mild recovery from the low in 2022, currently sitting at $986 for Q1 2024. Although, rents remain at a considerable discount on levels five years ago, reflecting the significant addition to retail floor space within Newmarket due to the enlarged Westfield Newmarket centre.

Wellington Overview

Wellington is New Zealand’s Capital City, with a regional population of 547,000 – making it the second largest city in New Zealand. The population is trending upwards and expecting a 5.5% or circa 30,000 increase by 2028.

Inner-city living is predominantly on the rise, with significant growth in apartment builds seeing a predicted 18% increase in the CBD population by 2028.

This number represents 80% of the total Wellington growth predicted by 2028.

Wellington enjoys the highest average household income in the country and the average annual pay packet is one third higher in Wellington, than in any other area of New Zealand.

Wellingtonians are noted as being the most educated in New Zealand, with 84% of the population having formal qualifications. In tandem to this, Wellington is also New Zealand's cultural capital and a leading centre for creative industries.

Wellington has a markedly different retail landscape to Auckland and Christchurch. A key reason for this is the lack of shopping centres or malls within the central city area.

Wellington retail is instead focused on ‘strip shopping’, with laneways and destination shopping experiences popping up throughout the CBD and city fringes.

The other notable difference is that the CBD and immediate fringes are the only key retail areas within Wellington central. Unlike Auckland or Christchurch, which both have significant secondary retail centres and strips within the central city areas.

The last significant factor is the geographic size. Wellington's key retailing precincts are only 1.54km long and around 200m wide and are centred around the core CBD area.

The outcome of this is excellent for retailers, creating a high density of footfall in the CBD and immediate fringes.

1. 'The Golden Mile' – Fast Fashion

Lambton Quay is Wellington’s prime retail strip. The Quay is flanked on both sides by large office towers hosting professional city workers, as well as a raft of international hotels and apartment offerings.

The ‘Golden Mile’ of retailing with the highest pedestrian count, falls at central Lambton Quay; on the West side, between Woodward Street and the corner of Willis Street.

Either side of Lambton Quay is subtly different in positioning and subsequent core shopper profile. The Western side hosts a large array of fast fashion and high street stores such as; Glassons, Hallensteins, Nike, Sportscraft, MECCA, Sunglass Hut, Whitcoulls, Mountain Warehouse, Lululemon, Chemist Warehouse, Jacqui E, Cotton On, and Farmers department store. Whereas the Eastern side has a more discerning, select profile, with retailers such as Seed Heritage, Vance Vivian, Country Road, Partridge Jewellers, Witchery, and a Nespresso concept store. Recent additions to the Eastern side include; Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and AS Colour – creating a wonderful top tier mid-market offering, and increased attraction to the East side.

2 3 1

4

2. Fast Fashion

This section of Willis Street lies between Mercer Street and Lambton Quay. Anchored by a large Kathmandu and New World Metro, this block has seen significant development over the last few years. The iconic heritage site, Stewart Dawson’s corner has a strong national and international tenancy mix. The iconic Aon Centre on the Lambton Quay corner, has re-opened after development, and is a highly frequented and attractive offering – with Holy Moly and Archie Brothers entertainment wrapped around a large premium food court.

3. Fashion Boutiques

The Victoria Street corner has truly announced itself as the shopping destination for fashion-lovers, and those seeking pieces from their favourite New Zealand designers and international labels. Super accessible, a hop skip and jump from Willis Street, but providing a ‘special destination’ feel.

4. FMCG and F&B

Manners Street is home to a lively hustling mix of cafés, exotic eateries, fast food such as McDonalds – along with youth fashion brands such as Typo and Cotton On Body.

5. Youth Fast Fashion

Lower Cuba Street is renown for its hip, cool, street vibe. It is the youth hang out seven days of the week, and is home to young professionals and students alike. Anchored by Glassons, Hallensteins, Cotton On and Barkers.

6. Outdoor Apparel and Sporting Goods

The north section of Cuba Street between Manners and Wakefield Street is a well known destination for outdoor apparel and sporting goods. From Gordon’s Outdoor Group, to Rebel Sport and Stirling Sports. Sprinkled with eateries and other fashion tenancies.

7. Entertainment & Cultural Precinct

The Courtenay Place district encompasses a wide range of entertainment and food and beverage options. From bowling lanes, to theatres, comedy venues, pubs, bars, eateries, and many fantastic restaurants, this precinct is very lively!

Wellington Retail

According to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand, during Q4 2023 retail sales (seasonally adjusted) in the Wellington region were 1.5% lower than Q3 2023, shifting from $2.73 billion to $2.69 billion. In annual terms, between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023 Wellington retail sales fell by 3.1% over the year, representing reduced spending appetite on the prior year, in which retail sales grew by 1.2%.

WELLINGTON RETAIL SALES

Source: StatsNZ

- Wellington City’s population was 216,200 as at June 2023.

- Between 2018 and 2020, population growth was tracking above StatsNZ’s medium growth scenario.

- The medium and longer term prospects are favourable for population growth. Even if it only picks up to the medium growth rate after 2023 we would see an extra 6,700 people by 2028. If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, population will lift by about 12,000 people during the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.

Population

WELLINGTON POPULATION PROJECTIONS

- Based on the last census conducted in New Zealand, Wellington CBD had 20,270 residents in 2018.

- According to the latest population projections published by StatsNZ, Wellington CBD’s population is expected to reach 28,880 residents in 2048 (an increase of around 43% in the next three decades).

WELLINGTON CBD POPULATION

Source: StatsNZ

- Over the last two decades, the number of Wellington CBD employees has increased gradually. Based on the latest information released by StatsNZ, in 2023 the total number of Wellington CBD employees reached 102,620, while the number of retail employees reached 3,943.

- The area with the largest number of employees is Wellington Central, with a total of 66,400 people.

- The area with the largest number of retail trade employees in Wellington CBD is also Wellington Central, with a total of 1,600 people.

EMPLOYEES IN WELLINGTON CBD

Source: StatsNZ

Retail Net Effective Rents

- The retail rental market continued to remain stable in Q1 2024 across all submarkets.

- There continues to be low vacancy and high demand for Prime CBD locations (Lambton Quay).

- Secondary CBD locations (Willis Street and Cuba Street) also continued to benefit from good demand for retail space, which is supported also by consistent high foot traffic levels.

- The Courtenay precinct remains more challenging for retail landlords.

WELLINGTON

CBD NET EFFECTIVE RENTS

Wellington CBD Retail Net Effective Rents

$/sqm/year

Source: CBRE

Christchurch CBD

Christchurch Overview

Christchurch is New Zealand’s most technologically advanced city, an unprecedented opportunity with 90% of the CBD rebuilt to the highest of standards, pioneering new technologies and work environments.

This resurgent city is becoming the obvious yet understated place to be. Those who already call it home are in the know. They enjoy an unrivaled lifestyle, with a rugged and diverse landscape on their doorstep, all while retaining access to broad employment opportunities and the global market. Population statistics show more and more Kiwis are beginning to explore the opportunities that exist here.

Providing a gateway to the South Island, Christchurch provides international sea and air entry. The connectivity Christchurch offers is enticing more and more organisations to relocate and set up shop in the thriving city.

People are drawn by better financial well-being, a welcoming business environment, and a quality of life that can attract the best and brightest.

A major advantage that Christchurch holds over other major urban areas is its lower operational costs for doing business. From relatively affordable commercial space to lower employee costs, the overall cost of entry is lower for new businesses wanting to establish themselves, especially during the start-up phase. This city is primed for businesses to take advantage.

As one of the most economically resilient and fastest growing areas in New Zealand, there is a lot to like about Christchurch.

Christchurch CBD retail is centred along Cashel Street and High Street. The CBD retail precinct is only approximately 520 metres long and approximately 240 metres wide, creating high-density foot traffic. The CBD is dominated by flagship stores, with a balance of laneways and precincts to cater for a diverse range of international fashion and retail boutiques.

A place to watch – The Cathedral Square – the next luxury retail precinct. Dubbed the heart of the city, Cathedral Square was the centralised point for locals to meet and Christchurch’s prime tourist hotspot. With the rebuild of the Cathedral already underway and several key developments to start next year, this will be the place to be in the CBD.

Key suburban retail areas include Merivale, Papanui, and Riccarton. Here you will find a diverse mix of fashion brands, boutique retailers and hospitality providers creating unique and destination “strip” shopping experiences. Anchored to these popular shopping destinations in each suburb is Merivale Mall, Northlands Shopping Centre and Westfield Riccarton. All three are home to a wide range of fashion retail brands.

1. Retail Precinct

Fashion retailers have positioned themselves along Cashel Street and High Street in the CBD. Christchurch's retail precinct is anchored by Ballantynes; Christchurch’s premier department store. Established in 1872, Ballantynes houses homewares, artisan food & wine, fashion brands for men, women and children, as well as a range of beauty and fragrance. Ballentynes employs over 300 staff.

2. Riverside Farmers Market

More than 30 bespoke hospitality operators, along with seasonal and permanent food vendors, operate seven days a week to provide a destination for some of Christchurch's best food offerings.

3. West End

West of the Avon River lies Christchurch’s first suburb known as the West End. Now, West End is the corporate hub of the city. It's home to tenants such as PWC, EY, Crombie Lockwood and Chapman Tripp. Adjacent to the retail precinct it has an estimated 8,000 workers.

4. The Terrace

One of the most popular socialising locations in the inner city is locally known as "The Terrace". A row of restaurants, bars and nightclubs that front onto the Avon River between Hereford and Cashel Streets. Here, you will find some of Christchurch’s best bars and restaurants open from lunch till late evening.

5. Hoyts ENTX

This go-to entertainment hub combines Archie Brothers' Cirque Electriq and Holey Moley Golf Club with Hoyts ENTX. The space spans across three levels and boasts a range of fun options for the whole family, as well as Hoyts cinema with seven cinema rooms.

6. Cathedral Square

Cathedral Square has long been considered the heart of the city. Cathedral Square historically acted as a casual meeting place, a tourist hotspot, and a focal point for public events.

Thanks to considerable private and public investment, there are a number of completed developments in the square, most recently being The Regent building. Three storeys of office tenants, anchored with retail on the ground floor.

Also in the area is Spark Square, Novotel Hotel and Christchurch's public library, Tūranga.

Restoration of the iconic Christ Church Cathedral continues, and the revival of The Grand (the 140-yearold former Chief Post Office in Cathedral Square) is set to be Christchurch's next hospitality hub.

7. Justice Precinct

This precinct brings together all justice and emergency services in one purpose-built, leading-edge area in central Christchurch. The Precinct is made up of three buildings. Its location will play a critical role in defining the southern edge of a more compact and vibrant city centre. An estimated 2,000 people work in or use the 42,000sqm precinct daily.

8. Te Pae Convention Centre

Te Pae Convention Centre is an architectural and social landmark of Christchurch. The world-class conference facility can accommodate groups of 1,400 people, divisible in two 700-seat venues. Additionally to the auditorium spaces are meeting rooms, exhibition and banquet spaces.

9. The Arts Centre

Dating back to 1877, The Arts Centre is the largest collection of heritage buildings in New Zealand. The area has popular restaurants, art galleries and museums, a boutique movie theatre, retailers, hotel, and includes the University of Canterbury concerts, lectures and seminars.

10. Christchurch Art Gallery Te Puna o Waiwhetū

Christchurch's public gallery, showcasing both local and international artists. Surrounded by many restaurants and cafés, with foot traffic between the CBD and the Westend.

Based on the latest data published by StatsNZ, during Q4 2023 retail sales (seasonally adjusted) in Canterbury were 0.6% lower than during Q1 2023, decreasing from $3.94 billion to $3.92 billion. However, in annual terms, between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023 Canterbury retail sales grew by 0.8%, representing subdued growth in comparison to the prior years 4.9% annual growth.

CHRISTCHURCH CBD RETAIL SALES

Source: StatsNZ

- Christchurch’s population was 396,200 as of June 2023.

- Between 2018 and 2020, population growth was tracking similar to StatsNZ’s medium growth scenario.

- The medium and longer-term prospects are favourable for population growth. Even if it only picks up to the medium growth rate after 2023 we would see an extra 14,600 people by 2028. If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, the population will lift by about 24,700 people during the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.

Retail Sales (lhs) Quarterly Change % (rhs)

Population

CHRISTCHURCH POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Source: StatsNZ

- Based on the last census conducted in New Zealand, Christchurch CBD had 6,310 residents in 2018. Population in Christchurch CBD was directly impacted by the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes, which forced many people to shift outwards to surrounding suburbs around the city and beyond.

- According to the latest population projections published by StatsNZ, Christchurch CBD’s population is expected to reach 28,980 residents in 2048 (an increase of around 360% in the next three decades).

CHRISTCHURCH CBD POPULATION

Source: StatsNZ

Employees

EMPLOYEES IN CHRISTCHURCH CBD

- Over the last two decades, the number of employees in Christchurch CBD has suffered from great volatility, mainly due to the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes that decimated this area. The number of employees started to recuperate more evidently in 2016. Based on the latest information released by StatsNZ, in 2023 the total number of Christchurch CBD employees reached 38,220 while the number of retail employees reached 3,385.

- The area with the largest number of employees is Christchurch Central, the core area of the CBD, with a total of 14,900 people.

- However, the area with the largest number of retail trade employees in Christchurch CBD is Christchurch Central-South, with a total of 1,400 people.

CHRISTCHURCH CBD EMPLOYEES

Total Number of Employees

Number of Retail Employees

Source: StatsNZ

Retail Net Effective Rents

- The CBD Prime retail submarket continued to benefit from rental growth. Continuing the trend of Q4 2023, this growth was galvanised by a decline in incentives, with face rents remaining unchanged. The main driver was the extremely low vacancy in Prime locations, especially on High Street and Cashel Street.

- Demand for CBD locations in this submarket continued to be strong from both local and overseas retailers.

- CBD Prime retail net effective rents sit at $732 per sqm in Q1, up by 1.8% compared to Q4 2023. CBD Fringe retail net effective rents are $292 per sqm; unchanged since March 2021. Also, Suburban Strip retail net effective rents are $344 per sqm; stable since September 2022.

CHRISTCHURCH CBD RETAIL NET EFFECTIVE RENTS

Source: CBRE

Queenstown

Queenstown Overview

Queenstown

The second-most visited location in New Zealand, Queenstown welcomed around 1.2 million visitors in 2019. Queenstown experienced a 10% growth in international visitors from 2017 to 2019, prior to border restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The downtown shopping precinct, right on the shores of Lake Wakatipu, is compact and easy to explore. Combining big fashion brands, luxury brands with local boutiques, beautiful jewellery stores, art galleries and souvenir shops along with an abundance of world class hospitality offerings, bars and nightclubs.

Queenstown CBD

The main retail areas are around Ballarat Street (which is pedestrianised), Camp Street and Shotover Street, as well as along the shores of the lake at Beach Street.

There is strong demand for CBD retail premises, with prime space nearly at 100% occupancy with only a handful of tenancies in fringe locations left.

There is still a large demand from Australian retailers for space in the CBD of Queenstown. With the shortage of prime retail locations, any available stock will be in strong competition and a driving force for competitive lease deals as retailers seek to capitalise on the return of the tourist dollar.

T Galleria by DFS

Boasting a portfolio of more than 120 brands, T Galleria in the heart of Queenstown spans across the two-levels, over 1,800sqm of retail space inside the O’Connells building. The complex features fashion brands such as Chloe, Burberry, Kenzo and Moncler. Beauty from Dior, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, Tom Ford, La Prairie, Clarins and Gucci; watches from Breitling, Carter, Zenith and Tag Heuer. Along with, wine, food and gifts from Cloudy Bay and Steens Honey.

Population

- Queenstown-Lakes District’s population was 49,500 as at December 2022.

- Between 2018 and 2021, population growth in this district was tracking above StatsNZ’s high growth scenario.

- The medium and longer-term prospects are favourable for population growth. Even if it only picks up to the medium growth rate after 2023 we would see an extra 4,400 people by 2028. If growth resumes closer to the high growth scenario, population will lift by about 6,200 people during the five-year period from 2024 to 2028.

QUEENSTOWN POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Number of People

Source: StatsNZ

- Based on the last census conducted in New Zealand, Queenstown had 14,350 residents in 2018.

- According to the latest population projections published by StatsNZ, Queenstown’s population is expected to reach 17,910 residents in 2048 (an increase of around 25% in the next three decades).

QUEENSTOWN CBD POPULATION

Employees EMPLOYEES IN QUEENSTOWN

- Over the last two decades, the number of Queenstown employees has increased gradually. Based on the latest information released by StatsNZ, in 2023 the total number of Queenstown employees reached 16,840, while the number of retail employees reached 2,462.

- The area with the largest number of employees in Queenstown is Frankton, with a total of 6,500 people.

- The area with the largest number of retail trade employees in Queenstown is also Frankton, with a total of 1,200 people.

Retail

The Queenstown CBD retail environment has experienced a rental uplift in the core, where recent streetscape upgrades have improved the retailing experience and pedestrian flow. New lettings in prime retail have resulted in strong rental rates, however, these have often been influenced by significant landlord fit-out contribution or façade upgrades. Outside of the core, retail rents have experienced modest uplift, with fringe tenancies having experienced little change. Recent transactions indicate yields between 3.50%-4.25% for prime retail assets.

NET YIELDS

Retail Net Effective Rents

Retail Net Effective Rents

Queenstown CBD (Fringe)

Frankton

Queenstown CBD (Prime)

Queenstown CBD (Prime)

Queenstown CBD (Fringe)

Frankton

Queenstown

Nelson Overview

Nelson

Nelson Tasman is the geographic centre of New Zealand, covering the North West area of the top of the South Island. At the heart of the region is Nelson City, the largest city and commercial centre across the top of the South Island, complemented by variety of vibrant towns and rural settlements such as Richmond, Motueka, Tākaka, Tapawera and Murchison.

The remarkable combination of alpine and coastal landscapes incorporating three highly accessible national parks (Abel Tasman, Kahurangi and Nelson Lakes), all within 90 minutes of the city, and many other key natural assets and attractions within 15 minutes such as the Centre of New Zealand, historic Cable Bay, Dun Mountain and the Horoirangi Marine Reserve.

The newly built Nelson Airport provides easy access to the rest of New Zealand; just 25 minutes flight to Wellington, 85 minutes to Auckland and 50 minutes to Christchurch.

Population

Nelson Tasman has a population of 115,000. With one in five people internationally born, there are 48 different cultures living in its environs.

Economy

Nelson Tasman has a growing regional economy, with a diverse economic base of clever businesses, and a burgeoning knowledge economy and innovation community.

The region's annual GDP is $3.8 billion, seeing over 8% growth in the past three years. The core economic drivers for this growth are value-add food & beverage, the 'blue economy' (marine, fishing & aquaculture), forestry & wood processing, tourism and, the research, science & technology sector.

More than 40,000 people are employed in the Nelson Tasman region made up of 5,622 businesses with 24,940 employees in Nelson and 6,446 businesses with 18,950 employees in Tasman.

The main shopping areas of Nelson is the CBD which has a vast mix of retail and hospitality. The central city of Nelson, also referred to as the central business district (CBD), is bounded by Halifax Street to the north, Rutherford Street to the west, Collingwood Street to the east, and Selwyn Place to the south. Other major streets within the CBD include Trafalgar Street, Bridge Street and Hardy Street.

The other main retail area is in Richmond. This is anchored by the Richmond Mall and surrounded by a large mixture of Large Format Retail.

Retail

The latter part of 2023, has seen an increase in retail vacancies in both the prime and secondary retail locations in central Nelson. There have been limited new leasings, with the available evidence indicating an initial correction in rental levels in the prime retail area. There are limited retail vacancies in central Richmond with recent new leasings confirming established rental levels.

A range of retail options remain available for lease in Blenheim. Sales recorded have included a single tenant property in central Richmond showing a 90 basis point yield increase on comparable sales recorded in height of the market in 2021.

NET YIELDS

6.0–8.0%

Rents

Blenheim 6.0–7.5% Nelson CBD (Secondary)

5.5–6.5% Nelson CBD (Prime) 5.5–7.5% Richmond 6.0–8.5% Motueka

Blenheim Nelson CBD (Prime) Nelson CBD (Secondary) Richmond

Motueka

Nelson Retail Net Effective Rents

Investor Market Occupier Market

Blenheim

Nelson

(Prime)

(Secondary)

Dunedin

Dunedin Overview

Dunedin

Vacancy levels and rental values have remained steady across George Street, Dunedin's main street and where a majority of Dunedin's retail is located. This segment of the market did not benefit from the same level of rental and capital growth experienced across the industrial and commercial property sectors over the past few years. Quality stock does remain tightly held and in instances where there are sales, these are for buildings that require large levels of capital expenditure. Large Format Retail located in Dunedin's city fringe have shown some rental growth, benefiting from lower vacancy and tenant turnover than George Street.

Dunedin CBD

The main action for retailers located on the “Golden Mile” on George Street. Well-known brands had positioned themselves between The Octagon and Hanover Street.

The CBD retail precinct is also made up of three malls known as Meridian Mall, Golden Centre Mall and Wall Street Mall. Although all three malls are privately owned, they interconnect internally allowing good flow and ease of access for foot traffic.

Malls

Wall Street Mall

Wall Street Mall is a modern take on the traditional retail mall experience. At its heart is a large central atrium allowing natural light to filter through, which resembles an open palazzo. This architectural design links Dunedin streets and neighbouring malls, allowing shoppers to shelter from Dunedin’s sometimes variable weather. This open glass, steel and stone space creates the ultimate atmosphere for shopping, dining, and socialising. Some tenants include Country Road, Levis and Rodd & Gunn, to name a few.

The Golden Centre

The Golden Centre proudly presents international, national and local stores selling homewares, gifts, shoes, unisex fashion, beauty services, jewellery, books and stationery, gaming products, food and drinks and more. Some key tenants include; Sketchers, EB Games, Platypus, The Body Shop and The Athlete’s Foot, and Timezone, a family entertainment venue.

Key Developments

George Street Upgrades

Dunedin City Council's recent upgrades to George Street has included the revitalisation of paving, street furniture, lighting and public art, as well as updating old infrastructure.

South Dunedin Hub

Plans to construct a new library and community complex in South Dunedin, on a Dunedin City Council-owned site on the corner of King Edward Street and Macandrew Road, have been delayed due to difficulties with finding new premises for a sitting tenant on the property.

University Developments

Campus development activity by the University of Otago continues. Notable projects currently underway include a 66-bed college extension at Aquinas College, a new 450-bed residential college and a $220+ million development that has commenced construction in Christchurch.

New Dunedin Hospital

The $1.47 billion new Dunedin Hospital is one of the biggest infrastructure projects ever undertaken in New Zealand. Construction is underway on the outpatient building, due for completion in mid-2025, followed by an Inpatient Building planned to open mid-2028.

Retail

Vacancy levels and rental values have remained steady across George Street. This segment of the market did not benefit from the same level of rental and capital growth experienced across the industrial and commercial property sectors over the past few years. Quality stock does remain tightly held and in instances where there are sales, these are for buildings that require large levels of capital expenditure. Large format and trade display retail has shown steady rental growth and benefits from lower vacancy and tenant turnover than George Street.

NET YIELDS

Net Rents

Dunedin (Prime)

Mosgiel

Oamaru

Dunedin Fringe (Prime)

Dunedin (Prime)

Dunedin Fringe (Prime)

Mosgiel

Oamaru

Dunedin Retail Net Effective Rents

Investor Market Occupier Market

Dunedin (Prime)

Dunedin Fringe (Prime)

Dunedin (Prime)

Dunedin Fringe (Prime)

Mosgiel

Mark Calvert

Auckland Retail Specialist

+64 21 988 096

mark.calvert@cbre.co.nz

Belinda Forbes

National Retail Specialist +64 21 320 880 belinda.forbes@cbre.com

Bianca Zoe Smith (Zoe)

Wellington Retail Specialist +64 218 568 87 biancazoe.smith@cbre.com

Ashley Whitting

South Island

Retail Specialist & Head of Large

Format Retail - National +64 22 317 4254 ashley.whitting@cbre.com

www.cbre.co.nz