Derek jones oversupply study 2014

Fuel for Brilliant DECISIONS

OVERSUPPLY The impact of abundance on our excitement, anticipation and value of what we consume, acquire and experience.

Derek Jones - Managing Director, D&M research

PRINCIPLE OF SCARCITY - Did we appreciate things more when they were more scarce?

In fundamental economic theory, scarcity relates to supply and demand. Basically, the less there is of something, the more valuable it is. The more rare and uncommon a thing, the more people want it. - Dr Robert Cialdini – The Science of Persuasion

Makes a grown man cry to remember this ad at a time when we used to ring Holland and the whole family would sit around the table with the phone in the middle of it. The tension was immense.

Ring ring! "Met Ivo!" Then the tears would fall. Screams! Laughter! The joy! Little things like that meant so much. It was a different time.ďťż YouTube Comment

2014 AMSRS National Conference

THE BIG IDEA

2014 AMSRS National Conference

LIFE MOMENTS MEASURED

More abundant as a result of changes in Society

More abundant as a result of Technology

Taking Photos

Gaming

Movies

Int’ Sports

OS Holiday

Family Holiday

Kids Gifts

Kids TV

Dinner Out

Kids Awards

Bikes, Scooters

Kids Activities

Dance

1st Crush

Team Win

Accessing News

TV Series

Aussie Sports

Music

Abroad

In Touch

Long Distance

Impact on Generations

CONTROLS

2014 AMSRS National Conference

A Lot Less=-100 A Lot More=+100

THE PROLIFERATION OF STUFF: Changes in Technology

Taking Photos AVG = +60

Accessing News

Video Games

Watching TV

Watching Movies AVG = +44 AVG = +42

‘Holiday’ News

AVG = +36

AVG = +35

A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

AVG = +40 A LOT MORE A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

35%

42%

32%

27%

24%

54%

Abroad

AVG = +34 A LOT MORE

31%

Technology has clearly impacted the frequency with which we experience many of life’s moments

In Touch Aussie Sports

AVG = +30 A LOT MORE

25%

AVG = +26 A LOT MORE

18%

Music Collection AVG = +22

About the Same (0)

A LOT MORE

24% Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

2014 AMSRS National Conference

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION (TECH) – X MORE ABUNDANT (TOP 3) Taking Photos +60

Accessing News +44

Loading & looking at photos taken on a digital camera

7,3

Looking at photos taken on a smart phone or tablet

Accessing written news on a computer or laptop

7.0

Picking up developed photos 2

3

4

5

6

7

6,2

Reading printed newspapers

6.4 1

6,3

Accessing written news on a smartphone or tablet 8

5,9

9 10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10

Video Games +42 Playing video games on a portable device / smart phone/…

In fact we tend to enjoy even more those activities that are now the most abundant due to technology!

Could it be that they’re better! . . . well not always!

5,6

Playing video games on a gaming console

5,3

Playing video games in an arcade

4,5 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION (TECH) – But Scarcity Does Apply to …

Watching TV Series +36

Watching Movies +35

Waiting and watching a TV series on the time it is shown

6,9

Watching a TV series on VHS,DVD or Blu-ray

Going to the flicks or movies Watching a movie at home on VHS, DVD or Blu-Ray

6,6

Downloading or streaming a TV series online anytime

2

3

4

5

6

7,0

Digitally downloading or streaming a movie

6,2 1

7,3

7

8

9 10

Aussie Sport +26

Holiday ‘News’ +40

6,0 1

Watching your favourite Australian sport live on TV

6,9

Getting a phone call from someone away

Going to a game of your favourite Australian sport

6,8

Receiving a postcard from someone away

Watching your favourite Australian sport on demand 2

3

4

5

6

3

4

5

6

7

7

8

9

10

…. we still ‘enjoy’ more watching TV at the time shown, going to the Flicks, watching Sport live, and getting a phone call from someone away.

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

8

9

10

7,2

6,9

Reading a post on social media from someone away

5,8 1

2

6,6 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014 AMSRS National Conference

10

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION (TECH) – But its not universal Playing Music +22

Staying in Touch +30

Playing a newly downloaded song or album

6,8

Playing a new cassette or cd

Opening an email with news from family or friends

6,4

Playing a new vinyl record

Getting news from family or friends via a text/sms

5,4 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

7,6

8

9

10

7,2

Opening a handwritten letter from family or friends

7,1 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Long Distance +34 Video calling family or friends long distance via Skype, Face-Time or…

Playing Music, Staying in touch and communicating Long Distance all favour newer and more prolific technologies

6,7

Calling family or friends long distance on a mobile or smart phone

6,7

Calling family or friends long distance via a trunk or STD call

6,5 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT /ANTICPATION x TECH TIMELINE 10

← OLDER TECHNOLOGY : NEWER TECHNOLOGY →

9 8 TREND

7 6 5

7,3 6,8 6,9 7,1

6,4 6,5

6,2

6,9 6,9

7,2 6,3 6,6

6,4

5,4

7,6 7,0 7,2 7,3

5,3

6,0 6,2 5,6 5,8 5,9

7,0 6,6 6,7 6,7 6,8

4,5

4 3 2 1

But enjoyment hasn’t really increased over the technology time – on average we enjoy things the same!

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

2014 AMSRS National Conference

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES – TOP 3

Digital Camera Smart Phone / Tablet Developed Photos

8

8

6

7,3 7,0

7,0

7,0

7

6,5

5 Builders (<1943)

6,7

6,4

5,5

4

6,4

6,3 6,2 6,1 5,9

5

5,4

(1943-1961)

GEN X (1962 -1981)

GEN Y (1982 -1999)

3

3

2

2

1

Builders (<1943)

5,7 5,5

5

5,9

Baby Boomers

6,6 6,6

6

Baby Boomers

GEN X (1962 -1981)

GEN Y (1982 -1999)

(1943-1961)

Digital photos rule, newspapers enjoyed more by older, and least by youngest – but PC/Laptop universally enjoyed, while all enjoy gaming more on portable devices!

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

5,6

4,9

4,7

4

4,1

6 6,0

6,5

7,1

6,5

6,4

8

7,6

7,5 7,2

Portable device / smart phone/ tablet Gaming console In an arcade

News on a PC /Laptop Printed Newspapers News Smartphone / Tablet

7 7

Video Games +42

Accessing News +44

Taking Photos +60

3,7 3,3

3,0 2,6 2,5

1 Builders (<1943)

Baby Boomers (1943-1961)

GEN X (1962 -1981)

GEN Y (1982 -1999)

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

WHEN THINGS WERE BEST: Interaction of Generation & Technology Hearing from Family & Friends on Trips Baby Boomers (1943-1961)

Watching Movies

Watching TV Baby Boomers

Hearing from Family / Friends Abroad

GEN Y

(1943-1961)

Baby Boomers

(1982 -1999)

7.72

Staying in Touch

7.22

(1943-1961)

(1982 -1999)

7.26

7.06

7.09

Watch Aussie Sports

GEN Y

7.06

Build a Music Collection

GEN X

GEN Y

(1962 -1981)

(1982 -1999)

Baby Boomers (1943-1961)

7.58

7.26 8.02

7.27

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

MORE TECH GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES – Significantly higher

Builders (<1943)

Newspapers

Baby Boomers

Generation X

(1943-1961)

(1962 -1981)

Communications

Sports

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

Generation Y (1982 -1999)

Gaming & Entertainment

Life-stage impacts generational differences with Builders defined by Newspapers, Baby Boomers by any sort of Communications with family and Friends, Gen X by Sports per se, old school Gaming and Video calls, and Gen Y by enjoying Gaming per se, & Music & downloaded / digital Entertainment,

2014 AMSRS National Conference

TECHNOLOGY – Impact of proliferation on ‘enjoyment’

ABUNDANCY DOES NOT NECESSARILY DIMINISH OUR ENJOYMENT •

Its clear that many of life’s moments are now far more abundant

•

Technology can make things better – even if more frequent

•

But we still enjoy some things more the old way

•

In fact enjoyment over the technology timeline has actually remained relatively stable

•

But what about things that are more abundant due to Society – how have these impacted enjoyment by different generations.

2014 AMSRS National Conference

THE PROLIFERATION OF STUFF: Changes in Society International Sports

OS Holidays

CONTROL Watching your team win

A Lot Less=-100 A Lot More=+100

Family Holiday

Kids Presents

Kids TV

Out for Dinner with Kids

AVG = +13 AVG = +17 AVG = +36

A LOT MORE

26%

New Bike, Scooter, Skateboard

A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

28%

10%

Team Sports, Art or Music Lessons

AVG = 0 A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

10%

11%

13%

Seeing someone you have a crush on

About the Same

AVG = +12

11%

AVG = +14

A LOT MORE

A LOT MORE

School Awards

AVG = +14

AVG = +13

AVG = +34

Dancing as a young adult

A LOT MORE

16%

A LOT MORE

14%

Society changes have also impacted the frequency with which we experience many of lifeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s moments

(0) A LOT MORE

6%

AVG = -1

A LOT MORE

4%

AVG = -4

A LOT MORE

9%

AVG = -13

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION (SOCIETY) – Scarcity DOES apply to ...

CONTROL Team Winning +17

Kids presents +14

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

8,2

Gen X (1962-1981)

8,9

Builders (Pre 43)

New Bike, Scooter, Skateboard 0

7,5 7,9

Builders (Pre 43)

6,9

7,2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Dance (young adult) -13

6,9

Gen X (1962-1981)

7,8

Boomers (1943-1961)

7,8

Builders (Pre 43)

7,4

Gen X (1962-1981) Boomers (1943-1961)

7,3

Builders (Pre 43)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

7,5

Boomers (1943-1961)

8,4

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

6,7

Gen X (1962-1981)

8,5

Boomers (1943-1961)

School Awards +12

6,9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

6,7

Gen X (1962-1981)

6,8

Boomers (1943-1961)

Dance is a curious one because it has actually become more scarce ?

7,6

Builders (Pre 43)

7,1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

‘Kids presents’, School Awards, and Dancing as a young adult all appear to be enjoyed more by older generations when things were more scarce or frequent.

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION (SOCIETY) – BUT Scarcity does NOT apply to…

International sports +36

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

5,8

Gen X (1962-1981)

6.3

Boomers (1943-1961) Builders (Pre 43)

5,8 4,8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

OS Holidays +34

Kids TV +13

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

8,3

Gen X (1962-1981)

7,8

Boomers (1943-1961)

7,0

Builders (Pre 43)

5,9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

7,0

Gen X (1962-1981)

6,8

Boomers (1943-1961) Builders (Pre 43)

4,7 6,6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

But OS Holidays and Kids TV, both of which are now more prolific are actually enjoyed more by the youngest generation

2014 AMSRS National Conference Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

10=A lot of ‘Enjoyment’ 1=No ‘’Enjoyment’

EXCITEMENT / ANTICIPATION – Where There is No Effect (Builders?)

Family Holiday +14

Dinner out as Kids +13

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

7,9

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

Gen X (1962-1981)

8,1

Gen X (1962-1981)

7,6

Boomers (1943-1961)

7,5

Boomers (1943-1961)

8,3

Builders (Pre 43)

7,7

Builders (Pre 43)

5,8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Team Sports, Art or Music Lessons -1 Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

7,2

Seeing your crush -4 6,9

CONTROL

Gen Y (1982 - 1999)

7,7

Gen X (1962-1981)

7,2

Gen X (1962-1981)

7,8

Boomers (1943-1961)

7,3

Boomers (1943-1961)

8,0

Builders (Pre 43)

6,6

Builders (Pre 43)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

6,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

And there is virtually no effect (except tending lower for Builders) for these Life-moments.

Source: n=1,000 Australian Adults

2014 AMSRS National Conference

SOCIETY – Impact of proliferation on ‘enjoyment’

THERE IS MIXED EVIDENCE THAT SOCIETY CHANGES LEADING TO PROLIFERATION LEADS TO LESSENING OF ENJOYMENT – AGAIN IT DEPENDS.

•

Changes in society also have led to the proliferation of certain life events although maybe not as much as thought.

•

But some things which are now more prevalent are actually enjoyed more by the current generation (Y) than their predecessors – things like OS holidays and Kids TV.

•

Although there is evidence of ‘being spoilt’ in areas like presents & awards lessening appreciation.

•

Other areas appear to be appreciated the same.

SO WHAT ARE THE NEW RULES OF SCARCITY? .

2014 AMSRS National Conference

Final Thoughts – Scarcity Sub-Rules The rule of scarcity does not apply universally to the enjoyment and thrill of life-moments.

Where the rule may apply: There are areas where abundance seems to have diminished or spoilt the enjoyment for later generations – these include presents & school awards.

So how do we explain the impact of a more abundant world on enjoyment – there seems to be three clusters of findings which may be explained by some sub-rules of scarcity: .

Sub-Rule #1: Principle of Technical Immunity: The proliferation of life-moment activity as a result of technology can lead to an enhancement of enjoyment if 1) the life-moment is already experienced reasonably often and there is a desire for more, and 2) The technology actually substantially improves the experience or utility of that activity

Sub-Rule #2:

Principle of Sustained Scarcity: The proliferation of a life-moment can lead to an enhancement of enjoyment when 1) the frequency of that activity remains relatively infrequent, and

2) the nature of that activity contains personal interaction

2014 AMSRS National Conference

Fuel for Brilliant DECISIONS

THANK YOU The impact of abundance on our excitement, anticipation and value of what we consume, acquire and experience.

Derek Jones - Managing Director, D&M research