A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South
William H. Frey
September 12, 2022
Downloads
Downloadable Table A
Downloadable Table B
Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a “Great Migration” (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/long-lastinglegacy-great-migration-180960118/) that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a “New Great Migration.”
Now, new Census Bureau migration data released over the past year makes plain that this return movement is continuing, although with some dispersion to other parts of the country. This report builds on earlier migration analyses to incorporate new statistics from the Census Bureau’s 5PYear American Community Survey
The reversal of the Great Migration began as a trickle in the 1970s, increased in the 1990s, and turned into a virtual evacuation from many northern areas in subsequent decades. The movement is largely driven by younger, college-educated Black Americans, from both northern and western places of origin. They have contributed to the growth of the “New South,” especially in Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as metropolitan regions such as Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston. And although these areas are simultaneously in the midst of new immigrant growth and white in-migration, the continuing “New Great Migration” has served to give Black Americans a large—and in many cases, dominant—presence in most parts of America’s South.
The historical Black presence in the South and the Great Migration
Prior to the Great Migration, the South had always been the primary regional home for Black Americans. From the beginning of the nation until the start of the 20th century, at least nine in 10 Black Americans resided in the South, predominantly in rural areas. And although the 13th Amendment gave Black residents new freedom to migrate, Black migration from the South was kept at a modest level due to farm tenancy arrangements, poverty, high levels of illiteracy, and the paucity of opportunities in the North.
That changed early in the 20th century with the Great Migration. In the six decades between 1910 and 1970, an estimated 5 million Black southerners left the region. The movement was of such magnitude that, by 1970, the South retained only a little more than half of the nation’s Black population.
Much has been written about the Great Migration in both scholarly and popular writings. It took place in two distinct phases: The first, between 1910 and 1930, was triggered by the combination of newly available factory jobs in northern cities (which were further increased by U.S. involvement in World War Ia and the slowdown and eventual government restriction of immigration. Together, these events caused desperate employers in cities such as New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Detroit to look to southern Black workers to fill their largely unskilled jobs. And although the pull of northern jobs was a major impetus for migration, there were also strong southern
“pushes,” including poor working conditions, Jim Crow segregation laws, political disenfranchisement, and racial violence. Perhaps just as important was the drying up of agricultural employment following farm mechanization and the boll weevil’s damage to cotton crops.
The second phase of the Great Migration took place after a national migration lull during the Great Depression. The huge increase in manufacturing during World War II brought even more employment opportunities to northern cities as well as to western coastal cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco. The postwar period saw many returning Black military veterans settle in these northern and western destinations. Even as the South became more urbanized and economically vibrant in the 1950s and 1960s, it continued to experience Black out-migration.
Between 1940 and 1970, roughly 80% of all gains in the Black population took place outside of the South. In contrast to their largely rural settlement patterns at the beginning of the Great Migration, in 1970, eight in 10 Black residents lived in metropolitan areas, with one in four living in New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, or Detroit. Similarly, in 1910, the largest Black populations resided in Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama; in 1970, the states with the highest number of Black residents were New York, Illinois, and California.
The ‘New South’ and Black migration back to southern states
By the 1970s, national deindustrialization was underway and conditions in the North changed, adversely affecting Black workers. Deindustrialization led to the demise or relocation of large numbers of blue-collar jobs, many of which Black urban residents had filled. At roughly the same time, the “promise” of northern cities was rapidly diminishing, with many Black residents residing in less advantaged, segregated city neighborhoods. Widespread “white flight” to the suburbs further isolated these neighborhoods from communities where employment opportunities and tax bases
were growing.
Black frustration over deteriorating employment opportunities, discrimination, and de facto segregation in northern and western cities led to a series of well-publicized urban race riots in the 1960s. Meanwhile, a favorable business climate coupled with new infrastructure (such as interstate highways) and other improvements (such as the widespread availability of air conditioning) paved the way for industries and employers to head to southern states, marking the emergence of the “New South.”
The combined effects of these changing “push” and “pull” factors led to the beginning of the Black migration back to the South in the 1970s. Figure 2 shows the shifts that occurred between five-year migration periods in the late 1960s and late 1970s. From 1965 to 1970, the South was still losing Black migrants to two census-defined “northern regions”—the Northeast and Midwest—and to the West. Yet by 1975 to 1980, the South gained Black migrants overall, due to new migrants from both the Northeast and Midwest.
A reversal among states for Black migration
At the state level, the New Great Migration was even more dramatic. In the late 1960s, the 14 states experiencing the greatest Black exodus were all located in the South, led by the Deep South states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana. At the same time,
nine of the 10 states that gained the highest numbers of Black migrants were located outside the South, led by California and Michigan (see downloadable Table A (https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Downloadable-TableA.xlsx) ).
By the late 1970s, however, six of the 10 states with highest Black out-migration were outside of the South—led by New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. And although California still led all states in Black in-migration, the next six highest were Maryland, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. The new Black migration gains were clearly favoring states in the New South: southern coastal states and Texas, where economies and employment opportunities were on the rise.
This was only the first glimpse of a new wave of Black migration back to the South, involving both returning migrants as well as new migrants who were born in other regions. As Figure 2 indicates, southern Black migration gains hit record levels in the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, as did non-southern Black losses. In the 1990s, for the first time, the South gained Black migrants from the West, especially from California. In both the 1990s and early 2000s, the South gained Black migrants from all other regions.
Map 1: States with Greatest Black Net Migration
Black migration gains continued to concentrate in the Southeast and Texas through
the 2000s. Georgia led all states in migration gains from the late 1980s through 2005P 2010, only to be overtaken by Texas since then (see downloadable Table A (https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Table-A.....xlsx) ). North Carolina, Florida, and Maryland were also among the states that gained the highest number of Black migrants for most years, as was Virginia.
Map 1 shows the sharp contrast in Black migration between the end of the Great Migration and the present. Most of the major Great Migration destination states— including Illinois, Michigan, and California—have become the greatest contributors to the later southern migration gains.
A shift toward southern metro area magnets
As with states, the list of metro areas that experienced the largest net losses of Black migrants changed most abruptly between the late 1960s and late 1970s (see downloadable Table B (https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2022/09/Downloadable-Table-B.xlsx) ). In the earlier period, the largest net migration losses (with the exception of Pittsburgh) occurred mostly in Deep South metro areas such as Birmingham, Ala., Mobile, Ala., and New Orleans. But in the late 1970s, deindustrialization in the Northeast and Midwest fueled Black migration out of several metro areas that in earlier decades were their major destinations. New York and Chicago led this list, beginning a pattern of losses that continues to today.
The 1995P2000 period solidified southern metro areas’ dominance as magnets, while at the same time northern and western metro areas such as Los Angeles and San Francisco took the lead in net Black out-migration. Atlanta began its long reign as the top Black migration magnet, outpacing other southern metro areas such as Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., and Orlando, Fla., along with Raleigh, N.C., Columbia, S.C., and, later, Houston, among others. And in the late 1990s, Las Vegas, catching some “spillover” from California, began to show a pattern of Black migrant gains that would later proliferate in western states.
Jobs in prosperous parts of the South are not the only reason that Black Americans have been moving there. Social ties and large Black populations are strong draws as well. The cultural and familial bonds associated with residence within the Black community were evident in the past; although the Black Americans who took part in the Great Migration were less likely to return to the South than white southern outmigrants were during in the same period, they kept in contact with family and maintained kinship networks that promoted further migration. Black Americans’ ties to the region, whether personal or cultural, have also been evident in the southern return, especially among northern city residents who did not fare well during the deindustrialization period and found a familiar and welcoming environment among family and friends in the South. But there are ties to the region for a broad spectrum of Black residents, including retirees with family histories in the South and young professionals who want to join areas with growing middle-class Black populations.
Continued Black southern dominance along with dispersion to other regions
While Black migration continues to concentrate in the nation’s South, it has recently been accompanied by a more localized dispersion into states and metro areas that lie near those sustaining greatest out-migration. Prime examples are Nevada and Arizona, which are among the 10 highest Black in-migration states for each five-year period since 2005; these states draw Black out-migrants from nearby California (see downloadable Table A (https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2022/09/Table-A.....xlsx) ). Minnesota and Indiana also rose on the Black in-migration list during this period, drawing migrants from Illinois. And in 2015P 2020, Pennsylvania and Washington joined the list of the 10 states with the largest numeric Black in-migrants, drawing them from New York and California.
This dispersion has also elevated several non-southern metro areas to the top Black in-migration list, including Phoenix and Las Vegas, and more recently, Riverside, Calif. (in 2010P2015a and Seattle (in 2015P2020)—all reflecting continued Black movement
out of coastal California metro areas (see downloadable Table B (https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Downloadable-TableB.xlsx) ). Although region-wide, Black migration to the South declined during the 2015P2020 period, the major southern magnet states of Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina still led all other states in Black in-migration. Similarly, Atlanta was still the greatest net Black migration gainer during this period, followed mostly by other southern metro areas—most notably, Dallas and Houston.
Another recent phenomenon is the rise of a few southern areas among high Black outmigration states lMississippi and Louisiana) and metro areas lMiami, Washington, D.C., and New Orleans). Nonetheless, the major out-migration states and metro areas are largely located outside the South, led by New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Detroit.
Young and highly educated Black migrants lead the way
While the volume of renewed Black migration to the South is notable, so are the changes that Black migrants are bringing to the region with regard to youth and human capital. While Black migrants to the South exhibit a wide range of family types, incomes, and education levels, professionals and the college-educated in particular are drawn to networking opportunities in southern metro areas with sizeable Black middle-class communities.
It is clear that Black Americans who migrated to the South in recent decades— especially those arriving in economically prosperous areas—have been disproportionately young and well educated. This continues to be the case for the 2015P2020 period (see Figure 3a.
Thus, more than a half-century after the civil rights legislation of the 1960s, new generations of Black Americans, particularly those with college educations, are moving away from earlier dominant Black destinations. Although the initial “reverse” migrants may have been fleeing from deteriorating economic and social conditions in the North, recent younger and college-educated migrants are moving to a more prosperous, post-civil-rights-era South that was unknown to their forebears.
