THE WORLD IN 2020
The world in numbers Countries europe 21 Austria 21 Belgium 21 Bulgaria 21 Croatia 21 Czech Republic 21 Denmark 21 Estonia 21 Finland 21 France 21 Germany 22 Greece 22 Hungary
22 Ireland 22 Italy 22 Latvia 22 Lithuania 22 Netherlands 22 Norway 22 Poland 22 Portugal 23 Romania 23 Russia 23 Slovakia 23 Slovenia 23 Spain
23 Sweden 23 Switzerland 23 Turkey 23 Ukraine 23 United Kingdom
24 Japan 24 Kazakhstan 25 Malaysia 25 New Zealand 25 Pakistan 25 Philippines 25 Singapore 25 South Korea 25 Sri Lanka 25 Taiwan 25 Thailand 25 Uzbekistan 25 Vietnam
asia 24 Australia 24 Bangladesh 24 China 24 Hong Kong 24 India 24 Indonesia
GDP
© The World In 2020, The Economist Newspaper Limited, London
0
2
4
6
The world’s ten fastest-growing economies in 2020 will all be in Africa or Asia, except for tiny Guyana (population 780,000) in South America, which will comfortably take the number-one spot as oil begins to gush from its offshore fields. Mining, tourism and oil-related construction will provide a further boost. Construction will also figure in second-placed Syria’s growth surge as the country rebuilds after a devastating civil war, even if fighting continues in some border areas. Successful macroeconomic management is bringing sustained growth lower down the list. Bangladesh will extend a run of strong growth that began in 2004, tripling the size of its economy. Growth rates in Myanmar and Ethiopia are settling down after even more impressive runs. Nepal and Ivory Coast are later to the party but doing well, too. Bhutan, which gauges its development in Gross National Happiness, will also shine on the more conventional measure of GDP. India, the fastest-growing large economy, will just make it into the top ten, with GDP rising by 6.7%. Government stimulus will boost the country’s performance in 2020. China, once a fixture on this list, is now a bigger, slower giant, but should still muster another year or two of 6% growth.
Guyana 35.0
Syria 8.9
Rwanda 7.5
Bangladesh 7.7
20
latin america 26 Argentina 26 Bolivia 26 Brazil 26 Chile 26 Colombia 27 Cuba 27 Ecuador
middle east & africa 27 Algeria 27 Angola 27 Cameroon 27 Egypt 27 Ethiopia 27 Iran
Ethiopia 7.4
28 Iraq 28 Israel 28 Jordan 28 Kenya 28 Lebanon 28 Libya 28 Morocco 28 Nigeria 28 Saudi Arabia 28 South Africa 28 Syria 28 Zimbabwe
Bhutan 7.3
Myanmar 7.0
Nepal 6.9
Ivory Coast 6.8
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
1.6
1.4
2.4
Mexico
Germany France
Middle East & north Africa
United States Cuba
2.3
Latin America
Angola Brazil
China
Iran
Nepal
India Myanmar
Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda
Sub-Saharan Africa Argentina
S Korea
Vietnam
Indonesia
5.2 excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand
South Africa
Japan
0.4
Asia
Zimbabwe
1.2
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Saudi Arabia
Ivory Coast
Guyana
Syria
Nigeria
Venezuela
India 6.7
Russia
Britain
Canada
Australia
Australasia
2.5
New Zealand
2.3
Falling interest rates
Bigger pay packets
Money-market interest rates, emerging markets
Average wages, selected economies, inflation-adjusted
2016=100
300
Local currencies, 2010=100
110 Germany
Philippines Argentina Turkey
Canada
200
Australia France
105
Mexico Indonesia
2020 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. Inflation: year-on-year annual average. Dollar GDPs calculated using 2020 forecasts for dollar exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or purchasing-power parity, shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding.
27 Paraguay 27 Peru 27 Uruguay 27 Venezuela
Top ten growers
% change on a year earlier -2
north america 26 Canada 26 Mexico 26 United States
India
17
18
19
Britain
100
Egypt Brazil
2016
United States
100
20
95
0 2010
12
14
16
18
20