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R E V I S T A

D E

E C O N O M I A ,

N E G Ó C I O S

E

P O L Í T I C A

THE ECONOMIST

THE GUARDIAN

EUROPA I DUBAI I TÓQUIO

UM OLHAR PARA OS PRÓXIMOS NOVE MESES

O IMPACTO DO COVID-19 NA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL

EVENTOS QUE VÃO MARCAR O ANO

OVERVIEW FOR THE NEXT THREE QUARTERS

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

WORLD MAJOR EVENTS

A VISÃO DE ADOLFO MESQUITA NUNES E DE RUI TAVARES “O MUNDO EM 2020”

OPINIÃO DE FILIPE SANTOS COSTA: “NO MEIO JÁ NÃO ESTÁ A VIRTUDE”

IN DEPTH VIEW OF ADOLFO MESQUITA NUNES AND RUI TAVARES “THE WORLD IN 2020”

FILIPE SANTOS COSTA’S OPINION: “VIRTUE NO LONGER LIES IN THE MIDDLE”

W W W. R E V I S T A P R E M I O . P T

O “BREXIT” SEGUNDO O EMBAIXADOR DO REINO UNIDO, CHRIS SAINTY THE “BREXIT” ACCORDING TO CHRIS SAINTY, BRITISH AMBASSADOR


DIRECTOR António Cunha Vaz D I R E C TO R A E X E C U T I VA Sofia Arnaud DIRECTOR DE ARTE Miguel Mascarenhas REDACÇÃO João Vaz de Almada e Miguel Morgado

SUMÁRIO

COL ABORAM NESTA EDIÇÃO Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, Chris Sainty, David Seromenho, Diogo Belford Henriques, Fernando Resina da Silva, Filipa Franco, Filipe Santos Costa, Filipe Teles, Francisco Trigo de Abreu, Gabriel Senderowicz, Hélder Vaz, José de Noronha Brandão, Luís Barreto Xavier, Nuno Botelho e Rui Tavares TRADUÇÃO Outernational, Unipessoal Lda. PUBLICIDADE Telf.: 210 120 600 IMPRESSÃO Soartes Artes Gráficas, Lda. Rua A. Cavaco - Carregado Park, Fracção J Lugar da Torre, 2580-512 Carregado PROPRIETÁRIO E EDITOR Cunha Vaz & Associados – Consultores em Comunicação, SA NIF 506 567 559 CONSELHO DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO António Cunha Vaz (Presidente) António Estrela Ribeiro (Vice-Presidente) Francisco de Mendia (Vogal) Ricardo Salvo (Vogal) DETENTORES DE 5% OU MAIS DO CAPITAL DA EMPRESA António Cunha Vaz SEDE DO EDITOR E DE REDACÇÃO Av. dos Combatentes, n.º 43, 12.º 1600-042 Lisboa CRC LISBOA 13538-01 REGISTO ERC 124 353 DEPÓSITO LEGAL 320943/10 PERIODICIDADE Trimestral TIRAGEM 3500 Exemplares

8 10 16 20 34 38 42

DIPLOMACIA | DIPLOMACY A Próxima Página | Turning a Page POLÍTICA | POLITICS No Meio já não está a Virtude | Virtue no Longer Lies in the Middle ANÁLISE | REVIEW A Visão de Adolfo Mesquita Nunes e de Rui Tavares para o Mundo em 2020 In Depth View of Adolfo Mesquita Nunes and Rui Tavares for the World in 2020 THE ECONOMIST The World in Numbers THE GUARDIAN O Impacto do Covid-19 na Economia Mundial The Impact of Covid-19 in the Global Economy FALA QUEM SABE | HE WHO KNOWS, SPEAKS Luís Barreto Xavier, Abreu Advogados Fernando Resina da Silva, VdA DOSSIER Eventos que Marcam o Ano World Major Events

Tóquio 2020 | Tokyo 2020 Euro 2020 | Euro 2020 l Expo 2020 Dubai | Expo 2020 Dubai 62 TECHSHARE O Programa que Prepara Empresas Tecnológicas para a Bolsa The Program that Prepares Technological Companies for the Stock Market 68 ESSÊNCIA DO VINHO A Essência de Muitos Públicos The Essence of Many Wine Audiences 72 INTERNACIONAL | INTERNATIONAL l Estados Unidos da América | United States of America l Angola | Angola l Moçambique | Mozambique l Guiné Bissau | Guinea Bissau l Brasil | Brazil 96 SOCIEDADE | COMMUNITY Porto: Uma Luz Sobre as Nações Oporto: a Light Unto the Nations

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ESTATUTO EDITORIAL

R EV I ST A C O R P O R AT IV A D A CV & A

www.revistapremio.pt/estatuto 3


EDITORIAL

ANTÓNIO CUNHA VAZ, PRESIDENTE DA CV&A

UM ANO EM MUDANÇA R ÁPIDA THE FAST CHANGING YEAR

A

Prémio já faz parte da leitura trimestral de cerca de três mil e quinhentas pessoas. É um órgão de comunicação social livre, que reflecte opiniões responsáveis de diversos ‘players’ de mercados nos quais a empresa que detém a sua propriedade actua. Na Prémio só se informa. Confrontam-se ideias. Reflecte-se sobre o mundo. Contribui-se para o hábito de leitura e para a promoção dos órgãos de comunicação social e do bom jornalismo. Tal como se tenta fazer o mesmo com o que de melhor há no sector empresarial. Neste número procurámos dar espaço publicitário a vários órgãos de comunicação

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rémio is already part of the quarterly reading habits of approximately three and a half thousand people. It’s a free media that reflects responsible opinions from a number of players in markets where the company that owns it operates. At Prémio we are here just to inform. To confront ideas. To reflect on the world. It contributes to the reading habits and promotion of both media outlets and good journalism. Just like we do with the best in the business sector. In this issue we tried to offer advertising space to a number of media outlets. It’s our consistent contribution to make sure that more newspapers and magazines will be


EDITORIAL

social. É o nosso contributo coerente para que se vendam mais jornais e revistas, para que se veja mais televisão e oiça mais rádio, mas, também, para que leiam, oiçam e vejam mais notícias ‘online’. E se digo que o nosso contributo é coerente é apenas porque como em quase tudo somos únicos. Até ao fecho desta revista houve apenas uma consultora em comunicação que subscreveu o acordo com a Visapress. A CV&A! Explicando, subscrevemos um acordo que diz, na prática, que somos contra a pirataria, a utilização de artigos jornalísticos sem autorização dos seus autores e dos órgãos de comunicação social em que são publicados. E a razão é simples: se queremos boa informação temos de ter bons jornalistas. Jovens ou mais experientes, todos eles têm direito a salário. Quem lhes paga o salário são os meios de comunicação social. Se contribuirmos para roubar direitos autorais aos jornalistas e receitas aos meios estamos a ser cúmplices de uma actividade que há muito existe e que é, no mínimo, inaceitável. A Prémio deste mês de Março traz como anúncio de contracapa uma homenagem à Selecção Nacional de Rugby. É a primeira vez que uma consultora de comunicação assume um patrocínio a uma Federação desportiva. O Rugby assume os valores próprios de quem está na CV&A e na Prémio: entrega, resiliência, transparência, Portugalidade e visão multicontinental. É um patrocínio com valor muito elevado para uma empresa da dimensão da CV&A. Mas foi assumido e acarinhado por todos dentro da empresa. Já temos participado em acções semelhantes na sociedade portuguesa. No passado recente tínhamos feito uma forte aposta na cultura. Todos se recordam de quando o Estado Português, através do Museu Nacional de Arte Antiga conseguiu adquirir o quadro de Domingos Sequeira, “A Adoração dos Magos”. Pois bem, se o maior doador foi a Fundação Aga Khan e o segundo maior doador um banco, o terceiro maior doador, a par de outro banco, foi a CV&A. É o que nos distingue. Dizemos presente à sociedade na qual desenvolvemos o nosso negócio. Neste primeiro número de 2020 procurámos cobrir acontecimentos de relevo para o País, mas também para o Mundo. Os três grandes eventos internacionais nos quais Portugal participará – Campeonato Europeu de Futebol, Expo Dubai e Jogos Olímpicos de Tóquio -, as eleições primárias nos Estados Unidos da América, o Coronavírus, numa parceria com o “The Guardian”, e o mundo em números (os próximos três trimestres), numa parceria com o “The Economist”, e o Brasil. Quisemos trazer ao leitor informação internacional reputada, à qual juntámos alguns opinadores de indiscutível valia. Esperemos que goste. Sobre Angola, Moçambique e Guiné Bissau os nossos colunistas são dos que mais habilitados estão para escrever. Esta preocupação prende-se com o cada vez maior número de leitores não portugueses e, mesmo, não lusófonos (quer em papel, quer no site www.revistapremio.pt), com o

sold, more television watched and more radio listened, but also for people to read, listen and see more news online. And if I say that our contribution is coherent it’s only because, as in almost everything, we are unique. Until the closing of this magazine only one communication consultant company had signed the agreement with Visapress. CV&A! That is, we signed an agreement that says, in practice, that we are against piracy, the use of journalistic articles without authorization from their authors and the media in where they are published. And the reason is simple: if we want good information, we must have good journalists. Young or more experienced, they are all entitled to a salary. It’s the media outlets that pay their wages. If we help stealing copyrights from journalists and revenue from the media, we will be accomplices in an activity that has been there for a long time and this is, at the very least, unacceptable. The March issue of Prémio features a back cover advertisement as a tribute to the National Rugby Team. It’s the first time that a communication company endorses and sponsors a sports federation. Rugby shares the same values of those at CV&A and Prémio: commitment, resilience, transparency, Portugal and multicontinental vision. It’s a sponsorship with a high value for a company the size of CV&A. But it was assumed and cherished by everyone within the company. We have already participated in similar actions in Portuguese society. In the recent past, we had already made a strong commitment to culture. Everyone remembers when the Portuguese State, through the National Museum of Ancient Art, managed to acquire the painting by Domingos Sequeira, “The Adoration of the Magi”. And if the largest donor was the Aga Khan Foundation and the second largest donor was a bank, the third largest donor, along with another bank, was CV&A. This is what distinguishes us. We are here for the society we develop our business in. In this first issue of 2020 we tried to cover important events for the country, but also for the world. The three major international events in which Portugal will participate - European Football Championship, Expo Dubai and Tokyo Olympics -, the primary elections in the United States of America, Coronavirus in a partnership with “The Guardian”, the world in numbers (the next three quarters), in a partnership with “The Economist”, and Brazil. We wanted to offer our readers internationally renowned information and to that end we relied on the contribution of opinionators of indisputable value. We hope you enjoy it! About Angola, Mozambique and Guinea Bissau, our columnists are the most qualified to write. This concern is related to the increasing number of nonPortuguese and even non-lusophone readers (either on paper or on the website www.revistapremio.pt), considering 5


EDITORIAL

N E STE P RI MEIRO NÚMERO DE 2 02 0 P ROCUR ÁMO S CO BR IR ACO NTEC IME N TOS DE RE LEVO PA R A O PA ÍS, M A S TAMBÉ M PAR A O MUND O.

IN THIS FIRST ISSUE OF 2020 WE T R I E D T O C O V E R I M P O R TA N T E V E N T S F O R T H E C O U N T R Y, BUT ALSO FOR THE WORLD.

facto de a CV&A ter clientes desde a China à Austrália, da América Latina ao Canadá, passando pelos Estados Unidos da América, estando fortemente motivada para trabalhar na África Sub-Sahariana e, claro, na Europa. A distribuição da Prémio torna-a das revistas mais lidas em Portugal. A sua revista chega às mãos de políticos – deputados, membros dos Governos Central e Regionais, ‘staff’ de apoio aos gabinetes parlamentares e ministeriais, reguladores, ordens de advogados, economistas, ROCs, entre outras, câmaras de comércio, embaixadas, académicos, jornalistas e, por último mas de grande importância, empresas: as dos PSI 20, a Euronext, as associações de empresas e empresários, as grandes empresas portuguesas e internacionais não cotadas, bem como algumas representações de organismos da ONU e da União Europeia no nosso País. A Prémio chega, ainda, em papel, a muitos políticos, empresários, profissionais liberais e académicos fora do país. Assim se vai construindo uma rede que colocamos ao serviço dos nossos clientes e de Portugal. Não podíamos deixar de falar das geografias em que estamos mais activos: Portugal, Angola, Brasil, Guiné Bissau e Moçambique ganharam espaço neste número. Num próximo, tal como no passado recente, outros mercados chegarão aos leitores, reflectindo a nossa actividade ou aquilo que temos planeado. Termino com os números de 2019. Os resultados apresentados, com orgulho, revelam que fizemos mais um bom ano. Agora vem o problema que se repete nos últimos quatro anos: melhorar a performance, garantindo solidez à empresa, para assegurar criação de valor para as equipas de colaboradores e accionistas. Sem esquecer, claro, a contribuição para a sociedade. Face ao período homólogo, a CV&A apresenta uma facturação que cresce cerca de 25%, um resultado líquido com um crescimento de cerca de 60%, um EBITDA que compara positivamente com o do ano anterior em quase 35%. Acima de tudo somos hoje uma empresa mais sólida e com uma autonomia e uma solvabilidade financeiras que nos dão garantias para o futuro. Até final de Junho desejo boas leituras, da Prémio e de muitos jornais e revistas, em papel e ‘online’, boa informação televisiva e radiofónica e, claro, excelentes negócios, num mundo livre de vírus de qualquer espécie. l

that CV&A has customers from China to Australia, from Latin America to Canada, through the United States of America, strongly motivated to work in Sub-Saharan Africa and, of course, in Europe. The reach and distribution of Prémio makes it one of the most widely read magazines in Portugal. This magazine reaches politicians - members of parliament, members of Central and Regional Governments, staff supporting parliamentary and ministerial offices, regulators, bar associations, economists and chartered accountants among others, chambers of commerce, embassies, academics, journalists and, last but of great importance, companies: those in PSI 20, Euronext, the companies and entrepreneurs associations, the large unlisted Portuguese and international companies, as well as some representations of UN and European Union bodies in our Country. Prémio paper edition also reaches many politicians, businessmen, professionals and academics outside the country. This way we create a network that we put at the service of our customers and Portugal. We could not help talking about the geographies in which we are most active: Portugal, Angola, Brazil, Guinea Bissau and Mozambique are feature also in this issue. In the near future, as in the recent past, other markets will reach more readers, reflecting our activity and what we have planned. I finish with the figures for 2019. The results presented, with pride, show that we had another good year. Now comes the problem that has been there in the last four years: improving performance, ensuring solidity to the company, thereby ensuring value creation for the teams of employees and shareholders. Without forgetting, of course, the contribution to society. Compared to the same period last year, CV&A has a turnover that is growing at around 25%, a net result with a growth of around 60% and an EBITDA that compares positively with the previous year by almost 35%. Above all, today we are a more solid company with financial autonomy and solvency that offers us guarantees for the future. Until the end of June I wish you a nice reading of Prémio magazine and other newspapers and magazines, on paper and online, good television and radio information and, of course, excellent business, in a world free of viruses of any kind. l

Alguns artigos de fundo desta edição podem estar ligeiramente desactualizados, dados os acontecimentos recentes.

Some articles may be slightly outdated because of the recent global events.

6


Há 2 anos a partilhar Arte & Cultura

Desde o lançamento do projeto NOVO BANCO Cultura, são já 52 as obras da Coleção de Pintura do NOVO BANCO que estão acessíveis ao público, em 27 museus de várias regiões do país e no roteiro disponível em nbcultura.pt. Castelo Branco > Guarda > Guimarães > Setúbal > Caldas da Rainha > Figueiró dos Vinhos > Lisboa > Viseu > Torres Novas > Óbidos > Faro > Beja > Évora > Portalegre > Crato > Chaves > Vila Franca de Xira > Aveiro > Lamego > Braga > Leiria > Madeira > Açores

A missão do NB Cultura não fica por aqui. Acompanhe o projeto de partilha em nbcultura.pt

Arte & Cultura partilham-se. 7


DIPLOMACIA

C H R I S S A I N T Y, EMBAIXADOR BRITÂNICO BRITISH EMBASSADOR

A PRÓXIMA PÁGINA T U R N I N G A PAG E

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o dia 31 de janeiro o Reino Unido saiu da União Europeia. Isto não significou um fim, mas sim um novo e ambicioso início no relacionamento com os nossos parceiros europeus. Foi um momento muito importante em que se cumpriu a promessa feita ao povo britânico há mais de três anos, no referendo de 2016. Os direitos dos nossos cidadãos ficaram assegurados. Saímos como um Reino Unido, livres para decidir o nosso próprio futuro e formar parcerias com velhos aliados e novos amigos em todo o mundo, baseadas numa amizade sólida, valores partilhados e interesses mútuos. Encaramos estes novos passos como um “virar de página”. Mas apesar de estarmos a sair da União Europeia, continuamos fortemente empenhados em trabalhar de forma estreita e construtiva com todos os países europeus. Queremos uma relação com a UE baseada na cooperação amigável entre iguais e soberanos, centrada no livre comércio. Teremos um relacionamento com os nossos amigos europeus inspirado na nossa história e valores partilhados. Porque essa cooperação é vital para a estabilidade internacional, ajudando-nos a enfrentar as grandes ameaças globais e a promover os nossos objetivos comuns. Em particular, queremos empenhar-nos no combate às alterações climáticas, juntamente com Portugal e os outros países europeus que são tão ambiciosos como nós no que toca ao clima e ao meio ambiente. Este ano iremos acolher em Glasgow a COP26 – a próxima conferência da ONU sobre Alterações Climáticas. Temos de agir em conjunto para acelerar as medidas destinadas a reduzir as emissões, a 8

O

n January 31, the UK left the European Union. This was not an ending, but a new and ambitious beginning in our relationship with European partners. It was a very important moment as we delivered on the promise made to the British people more than three years ago in the 2016 referendum. The rights of our citizens have been protected. We left as a United Kingdom, free to decide our own future and establish partnerships with old allies and new friends around the world, based on solid friendship, shared values and mutual interests. We see these new steps as the turning of a page. But even though we have left the EU, we remain strongly committed to working closely and constructively with all European countries. We want a relationship with the EU based on friendly cooperation between sovereign equals, centred on free trade. Because such cooperation is vital to international stability, helping us to address major global threats and to promote our common objectives. In particular, we want to increase our commitment to combatting climate change, together with Portugal and the other European countries that are as ambitious as we are when it comes to climate and the environment. This year we will host COP26 in Glasgow - the next UN Climate Change Conference. We must act together to accelerate measures to reduce emissions, protect our environment, and promote adaptation to the consequences we are seeing around the world. We need countries to increase their level of ambition so that collectively we get closer to a path that meets the general temperature targets of the Paris (Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


DIPLOMACY proteger o nosso ambiente e a promover a adaptação às consequências a que estamos a assistir em todo o mundo. Precisamos que os países aumentem o seu nível de ambição para nos aproximarmos coletivamente de um caminho que cumpra as metas gerais de temperatura do Acordo de Paris limitar a subida bem abaixo de 2ºC e equilibrar a temperatura global na segunda metade do século. Com Portugal queremos construir uma parceria moderna orientada para o futuro, tomando como base a relação histórica e de amizade muito especial que une os nossos dois países e os nossos povos desde há vários séculos. A Aliança Luso-Britânica, que tem como ponto alto o Tratado de Windsor em 1386, é a mais antiga aliança diplomática entre dois países que ainda se mantém em vigor em todo o mundo. Partilhamos valores muito importantes tais como o respeito pelos direitos humanos e um sistema internacional baseado em regras, e também interesses estratégicos e perspetivas globais, em resultado da nossa geografia atlântica. Temos também preocupações comuns com questões como a segurança e a defesa, e a importância dos progressos na ciência e na inovação. Somos ambos membros da NATO, da OSCE e da ONU. Existe um grande potencial para fortalecer as relações entre os mundos de língua inglesa e portuguesa, nomeadamente através do nosso estatuto de observador na CPLP. A nossa relação comercial é sólida e está em crescimento. O RU é o 4º maior mercado de exportação para Portugal; e somos o 4º maior investidor estrangeiro em Portugal. Para além dos setores tradicionais como a alimentação, o vinho e os têxteis, há muito comércio bilateral e investimento em setores mais inovadores, como os serviços digitais, as ciências da vida, as artes criativas e as energias renováveis. Tudo faremos para que continuemos a manter intensas as trocas comerciais. A expansão do comércio pode fortalecer as empresas, criar empregos, reduzir o custo de vida e ampliar a escolha do consumidor. Estas opções devem estar disponíveis não apenas para a Europa, mas também para os países mais pobres do mundo. Devemos agir como fortes âncoras morais, como uma força para o bem no mundo. Esta é uma oportunidade para o Reino Unido demonstrar que podemos ser aliados, vizinhos e amigos ainda maiores na Europa. Por tudo isto, estou convencido que os nossos cidadãos e as nossas empresas continuarão a manter um relacionamento muito próximo no futuro; e que os nossos Governos continuarão a manter uma cooperação muito estreita nas questões que importam aos nossos países e que são importantes para a segurança e prosperidade dos cidadãos, na Europa e no mundo. l

CO M P O RT U G A L Q U E RE M O S CO N ST RU IR U M A PA RCE RIA M O D E RN A O RIE N TA DA PA R A O F U T U RO, TO M A N D O CO M O BA S E A RE L AÇÃO H ISTÓ RICA .

WIT H P O RT U G A L , WE WA N T TO BU IL D A M O D E RN PA RT N E RS H IP A IM E D TO WA RD S T H E F U T U RE , BA S E D O N T H E VE RY S P E CIA L H ISTO RICA L A N D F RIE N D LY RE L AT IO N S H IP.

Agreement - to limit the rise to well below 2ºC and to balance the global temperature in the second half of the century. With Portugal, we want to build a modern partnership aimed towards the future, based on the very special historical and friendly relationship that has united our two countries and our peoples for several centuries. The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, which had the Treaty of Windsor of 1386 as its highest point, is the oldest extant diplomatic alliance between two countries in the world. We share very important values such as respect for human rights and a rules based international system, as well as strategic interests and global perspectives, resulting from our Atlantic geography. We also have common concerns about issues such as security and defence, and the importance of progress in science and innovation. We are both members of NATO, the OSCE and the UN. There is great potential to strengthen relations between the English and Portuguese speaking worlds, namely through our observer status at CPLP. Our business relationship is solid and growing. The UK is Portugal’s 4th largest export market; and we are the 4th largest foreign investor in Portugal. In addition to traditional sectors such as food, wine and textiles, there is a lot of bilateral trade and investment in more innovative sectors, such as digital services, life sciences, creative arts and renewable energies. We will do everything we can to continue to maintain intense trade relations. The expansion of trade can strengthen companies, create jobs, reduce the cost of living and expand consumer choice. These options must be available not only to Europe, but also to the poorest countries in the world. We must act as strong moral anchors, as a force for good in the world. This is an opportunity for the UK to demonstrate that we can be even greater allies, neighbours and friends in Europe. For all these reasons, I am convinced that our citizens and our companies will continue to maintain a very close relationship in the future; and that our governments will maintain very close cooperation on the issues that matter to our countries and that are important for the security and prosperity of citizens in Europe and the world. l 9


POLÍTICA

FILIPE SANTOS COSTA, JORNALISTA JOURNALIST

NO MEIO JÁ NÃO ESTÁ A VIRTUDE VIRTUE NO LONGER LIES IN THE MIDDLE

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(Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


POLITICS

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ouve - há de ter havido… - um tempo em que no meio estava a virtude. Os antigos diziam-nos isso. No meio estava a ponderação, a moderação, literalmente a mediação. A capacidade de estar entre as metades, de ouvir as partes, alcançá-las e fazer pontes. O meio-termo significava equilíbrio, balanço, abertura e compromisso. Esse tempo passou. No debate público o meio-termo tornou-se terra de ninguém. A aproximação e o compromisso passaram a ser olhados como sinónimos de derrota. E quem gosta de perder? O mantra guerreiro das redes sociais impõe vitórias ou morrer tentando. Tudo ou nada. Sente-se todos os dias nas redes sociais, cujo ambiente tóxico contamina todo o debate. O terreno do meio, da argumentação, dos pequenos passos, da procura de pontos de contacto, passou a ser o terreno “do outro”, pois quem não está com, está contra. Tribos têm de tribalizar. Portugal está longe da polarização que se vê na América de Trump, no Reino Unido do Brexit, ou no Brasil de Bolsonaro, mas também por cá os sinais são inequívocos. Quem tente uma crítica moderada a excessos reaccionários de alguma direita com um distinto aroma a incenso e salazarismo, é acusado de branquear excessos bolcheviques, marxistas, estalinistas, chavistas ou norte-coreanos. Quem se demarque de agendas artificialmente fragmentárias ou micro-identitárias de alguma esquerda de faca nos dentes é conotado com fascismos de toda a espécie. Estar no centro equivale a usar um alvo nas costas. Mesmo dentro de partidos que sempre reuniram correntes diferentes a tentação de depuração ideológica ganha terreno, em nome de um purismo ficcional. Quem se posiciona no centro é atacado pela esquerda e pela direita. No meio já não está a virtude, está a vítima. Mal sabíamos, quando temíamos o ‘bug’ do milénio, que o ‘bug’ que mudaria as nossas sociedades não resultaria de dificuldades digitais, mas de capacidades digitais. A generalização, acesso e facilidade de comunicação em rede prometia mais comunicação, maior abertura, melhor informação e cidadãos mais bem equipados para a cidadania. Enfim, mais liberdade e poder para cada um, em melhores democracias. Os antigos diziam que quando a esmola é grande o cego desconfia - neste caso, a máxima mantém-se atual. Devíamos mesmo ter desconfiado. Se todos falam, quem ouve? Se todos têm voz e as redes sociais a todos dão megafone, quem se distingue na vozearia? Os que sabem mais?, os especialistas? “Had enough of experts”, proclamou Michael Gove, e com essa sentença de morte aos especialistas sentenciou o caminho do Brexit, que era o que lhe interessava quando lançou a fatwa. A voz do expert é só mais uma - ou uma a menos, se continuarem a ser alvo da desconfiança que corrói a autoridade dos que antes tinham o poder de explicar o mundo e construir narrativas. A tecnologia implodiu as narrativas, fragmentando-as em milhões de histórias, já não partilhadas verticalmente, a partir dos que detêm o poder ou o saber, mas horizontalmente, entre iguais cujo poder é o de decidirem, cada um, qual é a sua verdade. Se há muitas verdades, não há verdade

T

here was - there must have been... - a time when virtue used to lie in the middle. Our ancestors used to say that. In the middle lay thoughtfulness, moderation, quite literally mediation. The ability to lay in-between, to hear what both parties had to say, to reach out to them and to build bridges. The middle ground meant balance, openness and compromise. That time is now over. In the public debate the middle ground is now no man’s land. Reaching out and compromising came to be seen as synonyms for defeat. And who likes losing? The social media warrior mantra imposes victories or to die trying. All or nothing. We sense this every day on social media, whose toxic environment contaminates the entire debate. The middle ground, the arguments, the small steps, the search for common ground became the ground of “the other” and whoever is not with us is therefore against us. Tribes have to tribalise. Portugal is far from the divisions witnessed in Trump’s America, in Brexit’s United Kingdom or Bolsonaro’s Brazil, but the signs are unquestionably here too. Anyone who engages in moderate criticism of the reactionary excesses of a certain right wing with its clear smell of incense and Salazarism will be accused of whitewashing Bolshevik, Marxist, Stalinist, Chavist or North Korean excesses. Anyone who sets himself apart from artificially fragmentary or microidentities agendas of a certain left wing with the knife on its teeth will be associated with all kinds of fascisms. Being in the centre is equivalent to wearing a shooting target on his back. Even inside parties that have always harboured different lines of thought the temptation of ideological purification now gains ground, in the name of fictional purism. Whoever stands in the centre is attacked by the left and the right. Virtue no longer lies in the middle but rather the victim. Little did we know, when we feared the millennium bug that the bug that would change our societies would not result from digital difficulties, but from digital skills. Generalisation, access and ease of network communication promised more communication, greater openness, better information and citizens better prepared for citizenship. In summary, more freedom and power for each one, in better democracies. Our ancestors used to say that there is no such thing as a free meal - and in this case, the motto still holds true. We should have known that. If everyone speaks no one will be there to listen? If everyone has a voice and social media give everyone a megaphone, who will stands out amidst the loud chatter? Those who know more?, the experts? “I had enough of experts,” proclaimed Michael Gove, and as he sentence the experts to death he sentenced the path to Brexit, which was what he had in mind when he launched the fatwa. The expert ‘s voice is just another voice - or one voice less, if he continues to be the target of mistrust that erodes the authority of those who once had the power to explain the world and build narratives. Technology imploded the narratives, fragmenting them into millions of stories, no longer shared vertically by those who have the power or knowledge, but rather 11


POLÍTICA

OS ANTI GOS DIZIA M Q UE Q UA ND O A ES MOL A É G R A NDE O C EG O D ES CONF I A - NESTE C A SO, A MÁ XI MA MA NTÉM -SE ATUA L .

nenhuma. Se não há verdade, não há mentira. Só há pontos de vista. Se tudo se equivale, vale tudo. Não é por isso que a realidade muda ou desaparece - a verdade pode não estar lá fora, ao contrário do que acreditavam o Mulder e a Scully, mas a realidade está. A realidade não se perdeu, mas perdeu-se a capacidade para a discutir e chegar a acordo sobre ela, porque não há acordo nem sobre o que ela é, nem sobre o que significam as palavras com que a podemos discutir. É só gritaria. A “cultura do conflito”, como lhe chamou o Papa Francisco. O Brexit, e a vitória de Donald Trump, só foram possíveis porque a tecnologia não só destruiu as grandes narrativas como implodiu a factualidade. Os factos são chatos. Para quê ouvir factos desagradáveis se podemos ouvir opiniões que nos confortam? Basta que haja a hipótese de escolher - e esta é a novidade: há. Podemos ouvir, ler e ver só o que reforça as nossas opiniões, deixando-nos no quentinho das nossas certezas. Achamos que… e o algoritmo garante que há mais quem pense o mesmo, portanto, há de ser verdade. Pouco importa se aqueles em quem encontramos eco são escolhidos pelo algoritmo precisamente porque há uma forte probabilidade de identificação mútua. É batota, mas fingimos não saber. A magia do algoritmo é essa: enxotar o sofrimento e o estigma do isolamento. Somos “nós” contra “eles”. É nesta bipolarização que se forjam tribos. Num mundo de referências incertas, a tribo dá certezas. As audiências dos programas televisivos de debate sobre futebol confirmam que há muito público para esse exercício simples, narciso e autista de defesa cega dos nossos e ataque aos outros. O clube é a tribo. Como a cor se tornou a tribo, ou a idade, ou a classe social, o género, a profissão, a cidade ou região, a religião ou a orientação sexual. Eu sou vermelho, verde ou azul. Preto ou branco. Sou isto ou aquilo. Eu sou - essa é a minha identidade. A minha tribo. E a forma mais eficaz de se fazer ouvir é falar à tribo, cada vez mais alto, e apelar à identidade, de forma cada vez mais radical. As políticas viraram identitárias - não apenas essas a que costumam colar esse rótulo, mas todas. Não é só o #metoo, e os discursos sobre raça, e as bandeiras arco-íris. Tudo é identitário. Trump percebeu isso ao falar para os brancos 12

O U R A N CE STO RS U S E D TO S AY T H AT T H E RE IS N O S U CH T H IN G A S A F RE E M E A L - A N D IN T H IS CA S E , T H E M OT TO ST IL L H O L D S T RU E .

horizontally, between equals and who now hold the power to decide, each on their own, what is their truth. There may be many truths but there is no truth. And if there is no truth, then there is no lie. There are only points of view. And when everything is equal anything goes. But reality doesn’t change or disappears because of that truth may not be out there, contrary to what Mulder and Scully believed, but reality is. Reality has not been lost, but the ability to discuss it and agree on it has been lost, because there is no agreement as to what it is or as to the words we can use to discuss it. It’s just loud chatter. The “culture of conflict”, as Pope Francis called it. Brexit and Donald Trump’s victories were only possible because technology not only destroyed the big narratives but imploded them factuality too. Facts are boring. Why hear about unpleasant facts if we can hear opinions that comfort us? As long as we have the possibility to choose - and this is the big news: we do. We can hear, read and see only what reinforces our opinions, remaining in the comfort of our certainties. We believe that… and the algorithm makes sure there will more people sharing the same opinion, hence it must be true. It matters little whether those sharing our views are chosen by the algorithm given that there is a high likelihood of mutual identification. It’s cheating, but we pretend not to know that. The magic of the algorithm is this: it drives away the suffering and stigma of isolation. It’s “us” versus “them”. And it’s in this bipolarization that tribes are forged. In a world of uncertain references, the tribe offers certainty. The audiences of the televised football debate programs confirm that there is a large audience for this simple, narcissistic and autistic exercise of blindly defending our own and attacking others. The club is the tribe. Colour, age, social class, gender, profession, city or region religion or sexual orientation became the tribe. I’m red, green or blue. Black or white. I’m this or that. I am - this is my identity. My tribe. And the most effective way to make yourself heard is to speak to the tribe, increasingly loud, and to appeal to identity, in an increasingly radical way. Policies became identitarian - not just the ones that usually stick to that label, but all of them. It’s not just #metoo,


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POLÍTICA

A RE ALI DAD E NÃO SE PER DEU, MAS P ERDE U -SE A C A PAC IDA DE PAR A A DI S CUTIR E C H EG A R A ACORD O SO BR E EL A .

com poucos estudos e os desempregados que ruminavam ressentimento contra os mexicanos, os chineses e o globo em geral. Putin já tinha percebido isso ao falar para os deserdados do império soviético e para os nostálgicos da Mãe Rússia. Nigel Farage percebeu isso ao fazer vibrar cada corda do medo, da desconfiança, da insegurança e da desinformação de uma multidão de gente, todos diferentes, todos iguais na ilusão autodeterminada do “take back control”. O debate tornou-se identitário, tribal e extremado. Deixou de ser sobre caminhos diferentes para futuros gloriosos e amanhãs que cantam, para ser sobre mínimos denominadores comuns de medo, inveja e raiva. Trump e o Brexit, sempre eles, mostraram-nos o futuro (Putin também, mas a Rússia é outra história, dói menos, pois nunca teve pergaminhos democráticos): não é preciso falar para todos, nem sequer tentar convencer uma maioria - basta falar para a minoria “persuasível”, se não para conquistar o seu apoio, pelo menos para garantir que não apoiará o outro lado. A tecnologia e as redes sociais dizem-nos quem são esses que têm a chave das democracias: o segredo está nos ‘likes’. Se gostam disto, se aprovam aquilo, se escrevem outro tanto, então pensam assim. E se pensam assim, são assado. E vão fazer isto - o algoritmo sabe, mesmo se os próprios não sabem. Somos demasiado previsíveis. Basta dar um empurrãozinho, para garantir que o algoritmo não falha: toca a bombardear o “persuasível” com dados que lhe espicacem os instintos, reforcem os medos e mobilizem a ação. Peter Pomerantsev, o autor de “This is not propaganda”, conta que à campanha do Leave bastou um mix de 70 mensagens diferentes nas redes sociais para atingir as audiências que interessavam numa população de 20 milhões. Ganhou o Leave. Uns milhões de votos conquistados aqui, uns milhões de votos suprimidos ali, pela força da dúvida incutida pela desinformação. Esta dúvida, ao contrário da dos filmes de Hollywood, nem tem de ser uma dúvida razoável. Até será melhor que não seja. A razoabilidade é vizinha da moderação, e ambas moram no centro. Onde não há tribo. Por isso o centro está cada vez mais desconfortável e despovoado. Por este andar, no meio só restará o vazio. l 14

RE A L IT Y H A S N OT BE E N LO ST, BU T T H E A BIL IT Y TO D IS CU S S IT A N D AG RE E O N IT H A S BE E N LO ST.

and speeches about race, and rainbow flags. Everything is identitarian. Trump realized this when addressing white people with little education and the unemployed who ruminated resentment against Mexicans, Chinese and the globe in general. Putin had already realized this when addressing the disinherited from the Soviet empire and to the nostalgic of Mother Russia. Nigel Farage realized this by vibrating each string of fear, distrust, insecurity and misinformation of a whole crowd of people, all different, all the same in their self-determined illusion of “taking back control”. The debate became identitarian, tribal and extreme. The debate was no longer about finding different paths to glorious futures and happy tomorrows and centred rather around the lowest common denominators of fear, envy and anger. Trump and Brexit, once again, showed us the future (Putin too, but Russia is another story, it hurts less, because it never had democratic parchments): we no longer need to speak to everyone or try to convince a majority - we just need to address the “persuasive” minority, if not to win their support, at least to ensure that they will not be supporting the other side. Technology and social media tell us who hold the key to democracies: the secret lies in the number of likes. If you like this, if you approve of that, if you write as much, then you think that way. And if you think like this you are like that. And will do so - the algorithm knows that, even if they themselves don’t know it. We are too predictable. Just give it a little push to make sure the algorithm gets it right: let’s flood the “persuasible” with data that stirs up his instincts, reinforces his fears and mobilizes action. Peter Pomerantsev, the author of “This is not propaganda”, says that the Leave campaign need only a mix of 70 different messages on social media to reach the audiences that mattered in a population of 20 million. And Leave won. Millions of votes won here, millions of votes suppressed there, thanks to the force of doubt instilled by misinformation. This doubt, unlike that of Hollywood films, doesn’t even have to be a reasonable doubt. And thank God for that, probably. Reasonability is close to moderation, and both lie in the centre where there is no tribe. That’s why the centre is increasingly uncomfortable and unpopulated. By the looks of things soon the middle will be void. l


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ANÁLISE

ADOLFO MESQUITA NUNES, PARTNER GAMA GLÓRIA

C O M O O M U N D O E S TÁ M E L H O R E M 2 0 2 0

192.000 PESSOAS SAEM POR DIA DA POBREZA 192,000 PEOPLE ARE ON THE ROUTE OUT O F E X T R E M E P O V E RT Y E V E RY DAY

É

hoje convicção generalizada de que o Mundo está a ficar pior, que as condições de vida se estão a degradar, que há menos oportunidades, que estamos, pela primeira vez, a regredir e que as novas gerações estão a viver pior. É isso que os jornais nos dizem, é isso que os colunistas nos asseguram e é isso que os nossos olhos se habituaram a ver. A explicação para este retrocesso é simples: a globalização falhou, vivemos num Mundo onde muito poucos ganham e quase todos perdem. É isso que ouvimos, à esquerda e à direita do espectro político. De um lado, normalmente o esquerdo, dizem-nos que esta economia global está a permitir que os mais ricos fiquem cada vez mais ricos enquanto se exploram os mais pobres. Há como que um grito de alerta contra a oligarquia. De outro lado, normalmente o direito, dizem-nos que esta economia global está a abrir as fronteiras aos inimigos do nosso modo de vida, que estão a ficar com os empregos e a contribuir para o empobrecimento. Há como que um grito de alerta contra os estrangeiros. De ambos os lados, dizem-nos que esta economia global permite que os mais fortes, os mais poderosos, andem pelo Mundo a fazer o que querem, deslocalizando

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I

t is now widely acknowledged that the world is getting worse, that living conditions are deteriorating, that there are fewer opportunities, that we are going backwards for the first time and that new generations are now living worse. That’s what the newspapers tell us, that’s what the columnists assure us and that’s what our eyes got used to seeing. The explanation for this setback is simple: globalisation has failed, we live in a world where very few win and almost everyone loses. That’s what we hear, on the left and the right of the political spectrum. On the one hand we are told, usually by the left wing, that this global economy is allowing the richest to become increasingly wealthy while the poorer are being exploited. There is a kind of warning cry against the oligarchy. On the other hand we are told, usually by the right wing that this global economy is opening borders to enemies of our way of life who are stealing our jobs and contributing to impoverishment. There is a kind of warning cry against foreigners. On both sides, we are told that this global economy allows the strongest, the most powerful, to travel the world and do what they want, relocating companies where they want, paying low taxes, and living at the expense of countries


REVIEW

RUI TAVARES, EX-DEPUTADO PARL AMENTO EUROPEU 2009-2014 FORMER MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 2009-2014

OS PERIGOS DO MUNDO EM 2020

É PRECISO CULTIVAR O NOSSO JARDIM WE MUST GROW OUR OWN GARDEN

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uma das melhores novelas de sempre, e em minha opinião a sátira que mais eficazmente descreve a nossa entrada na modernidade, um jovem chamado Cândido percorre o mundo acompanhado pelo seu mentor filosófico, o Professor Pangloss. Todo o tipo de desgraças lhes acontece. São recrutados à força, espancados, assaltados, apanhados por terramotos, condenados pela Inquisição Portuguesa, violados, e de novo espancados e assaltados. De cada vez que uma nova desgraça acontece, o Professor Pangloss proclama, porém, que “tudo vai pelo melhor no melhor dos mundos possíveis”. A razão por que aquela sátira é tão eficaz não têm a ver com o facto de o século XVIII — quando Voltaire a escreveu, poucos anos depois do Grande Terramoto de Lisboa, com o título Cândido ou o Otimismo — ter sido um século horrível. Pelo contrário, o século XVIII estava já a ser o melhor século de sempre, e desde então ganhou toda a espécie de títulos brilhantes, de Era das Luzes a Idade da Razão. A sátira é eficaz porque ataca aqueles que acham que as coisas vão correr pelo melhor dos mundos possíveis sem ser preciso fazer o que quer que seja por isso. O alvo principal de Voltaire era o filósofo alemão Leibnitz, que era conhecido por acreditar que Deus tinha um plano para a humanidade, e que tudo estava a correr de acordo com esse plano. O papel de Deus nesse plano foi mais tarde substituído pela

I

n one of the best novels ever, and in my opinion the satire that better describes our entry into modernity, a young man named Candide travels the world together with his philosophical mentor, Professor Pangloss. They suffer all sorts of misfortunes. They were forcibly conscripted into the army, beaten, mugged, caught by earthquakes, convicted by the Portuguese Inquisition, raped, and again beaten and mugged. Every time a new misfortune happened, Professor Pangloss proclaimed, however, “everything was going well in the best of all possible worlds”. The reason why that satire is so effective has nothing to do with the fact that the 18th century - when Voltaire wrote it, a few years after the Great Lisbon Earthquake, under the title Candide or the Optimism - was such a terrible century. Quite contrary, the 18th century was by then the best century ever, and since then it has won all kinds of brilliant titles, from the Age of Enlightment to the Age of Reason. This satire is very effective as it attacks those who think things will work well in the best of all possible worlds without having to do anything for it. Voltaire’s main target was the German philosopher Leibnitz, who was known for believing that God had a plan for humanity, and that everything was going according to that plan. 17


ANÁLISE as empresas para onde lhes apetece, pagando poucos impostos, e vivendo à conta dos países que exploram, numa espécie de conspiração informal. A descrição desta conspiração vai variando. À esquerda falam-nos de uma conspiração do 1% mais rico. À direita falam-nos de uma conspiração marxista-cultural. Não é uma perspectiva animadora, esta, e é ela que está na base dos populismos, da polarização, da intolerância, do surgimento desse absurdo conceito de “democracia iliberal”, da predisposição para o retrocesso democrático e, sobretudo, para a defesa do fim da globalização, do capitalismo, da afirmação de uma nova ordem. E das duas, uma, se queremos vencer esses populistas e esses retrocessos: ou estamos hoje a piorar, e temos de fazer alguma coisa quanto a isso; ou as coisas não são bem assim e é bom que consigamos fazer passar a mensagem. O pior que podia acontecer era inventar soluções para problemas que não existem tal qual descritos. Sucede que não é possível demonstrar que o Mundo está hoje pior. E não é possível porque todos os dados provam o contrário. Estamos hoje globalmente melhor do que antes: crescimento, combate à pobreza (sabia que o número de pessoas em pobreza está no nível mais baixo da História, que temos a maior classe média de sempre, que a desigualdade global não está a aumentar, por exemplo?), saúde, educação, condições laborais, direitos das mulheres, protecção das minorias, acesso a água e energia, e até mesmo em políticas públicas ambientais estamos mais conscientes e actuantes do que no passado. Hoje a pessoa média do Mundo é 4,4 vezes mais rica do que a pessoa média do Mundo em 1950. Em Portugal, esse valor é mais impressionante: o português médio é hoje 10 vezes mais rico do que o português médio em 1950. Todas estas melhorias desafiam uma lógica que muitos consideravam inquebrantável: a de que para alguém ganhar, outro teria de perder. Se acreditássemos nessa lógica, um aumento de sete vezes na população mundial seria suficiente para nos levar a todos à extrema pobreza, já que mais pessoas a partilhar riqueza determinaria que houvesse menos riqueza. Não foi o que sucedeu. Claro que há muitos problemas a resolver, porque o Mundo está longe de ser um lugar perfeito, e há muitos desafios (e sérios!) a vencer, porque a globalização é dinâmica e veloz. Mas nada disso se vence deitando fora o que nos trouxe com tanto sucesso aqui: a globalização e o capitalismo. Se queremos vencer os populistas e os radicais, não temos de comprar as teses deles, jogando no tabuleiro que eles nos colocam: eles baseiam-se em pressupostos errados e é nossa tarefa desmontar as suas narrativas e mostrar como, como todos os problemas, com todos os desafios, estamos hoje a viver melhor do que os nossos avós. l

18

that they exploit, in a kind of informal conspiracy. The description of this conspiracy varies. The left wing usually talks of a conspiracy led by the wealthy 1%. The right wing speaks of a Marxist-cultural conspiracy. This is not an encouraging perspective and it lies at the heat of populism, polarization, intolerance, the emergence of this absurd concept of “illiberal democracy”, the predisposition for democratic setbacks and, above all, defence of the end of globalisation, capitalism, the affirmation of a new order. And if want to beat these populists we have two options: either we believe we are getting worse today, and we have to do something about it; or things are not like they say and we’d better get that message across. The worst that could happen was to come up with solutions to problems that don’t exist as described. It turns out that it’s not possible to prove that the world is worse today. And it’s not possible because all the data prove otherwise. We are globally better off today than before: growth, fighting poverty (did you know that the number of people in poverty is at the lowest level in history, that we have the largest middle class ever, that global inequality is not increasing, for example?), health, education, working conditions, women’s rights, protection of minorities, access to water and energy, and even as regards public environmental policies we are now more aware and active than in the past. Today the average person in the world is 4.4 times richer than the average person in the world in 1950. In Portugal, this figure is more impressive: the average Portuguese is now 10 times richer than average Portuguese in 1950. All of these improvements challenge a certain logic that many considered had to contradict: that for someone to win, someone else would have to lose. If we believed in this logic, a sevenfold increase in the world population would be enough then to lead us to extreme poverty, since more people sharing wealth would determine that there would be less wealth. That hasn’t been the case. Of course, there are many problems to solve, considering that the world is far from being a perfect place, and there are many (and serious!) challenges to overcome, because globalization is dynamic and fast. But none of this can be solved by getting rid of what has brought us successfully here: globalization and capitalism. If we want to beat the populists and the radicals, we don’t have to buy their theses, playing the same game: they share wrong assumptions and it’s our duty to dismantle their narratives and show how, despite all problems, despite all the challenges, today we are living better than our grandparents. l


REVIEW figura do Progresso, pela mão invisível dos Mercados, pela lei histórica da Luta de Classes ou até pela meta do Fim da História. Cada qual com os seus Professores Pangloss, sempre dispostos a passar o seu verniz explicativo sobre todas as inconsistências entre a realidade e a teoria. O que esqueceram esses doutrinadores foi que, ao invés de Deus, o Progresso ou a Técnica terem um plano para a humanidade, é a humanidade que está perdida se não tiver um plano para si mesma. A alternativa a esse tipo de pensamento circular como o de Pangloss não é o pessimismo, o fatalismo ou o decadentismo. A verdade é que cada uma dessas eras foi em geral melhor do que a anterior, pelo menos a partir daquele momento nos gráficos em que a riqueza e o bem-estar humano descolam quase na vertical, precisamente no século XVIII. Mas o problema não está aí. Claro que o século XIX foi mais rico do que o XVIII, o XX mais rico do que o XIX, e o XXI mais rico do que o XX. Todos foram também, salvo epidemias, mais saudáveis. E também, salvo guerras, mais confortáveis. E todas as décadas viram aparecer inovações e descobertas que melhoraram em muito a vida da humanidade. Mas limitarmo-nos a essa descrição pode levar-nos a argumentos imorais: afinal o que distingue a década de 1920 da de 1930 ou 1940 não é que estas últimas tiveram mais casas com eletricidade ou que a radiotelefonia se generalizou. Dizê-lo não é mentir, mas é ser cego à evidência moral: o que diferencia o início da década de 1940 do início da de 1920 é a ascensão do fascismo e a máquina de assassinato em massa do holocausto. Nesse sentido, a humanidade regrediu, mesmo que as inovações técnicas não tenham sido desinventadas ou que a economia tenha crescido durante a guerra. Onde o nosso tempo está a ser perigoso é na regressão democrática, no colapso do estado de direito, no regresso do nacional-populismo, no crescer da intolerância e da polarização destrutiva. E onde o nosso tempo está a entrar numa fase de crise existencial é na questão da crise ecológica desontrolada em que podem redundar as alterações climáticas. Nada disso impede que os telemóveis e os computadores tenham ficado melhores, que a economia tenha feito progressos em relação à crise de 2008 ou até que haja entre a juventude global uma contra-cultura de tolerância, ecologia e cosmopolitismo. Mas não foi nada disso a definir a nossa época. As linhas da política, da cultura e da moralidade humana não acompanham necessariamente as da tecnologia ou da ciência, e nem sequer a da economia. E as consequências de esquecer isso são muitas vezes desastrosas. Convém tê-lo em mente sempre, mas em particular a partir de 2020 — para que a nossa história não venha a ser escrita pelas mãos erradas. Afinal é a nós que compete “cultivar o nosso jardim”, como finalmente respondeu Cândido a Pangloss depois de ter ouvido demasiadas vezes que tudo corria bem no melhor dos mundos possíveis. l

God’s role in this plan was later replaced by the figure of Progress, by the invisible hand of the Markets, by the historical law of Class Struggle or even by the goal of the End of History. Each one of us has their own Pangloss Professors, always ready to brush all the inconsistencies between reality and theory with a layer of explanatory varnish. What these indoctrinators forgot was that, quite contrary to God, Progress or Technique having a plan for humanity, humanity will be lost if it doesn’t’ come up with a plan of its own. The alternative to this type of circular thinking like the one shared by Pangloss is not pessimism, fatalism or decadentism. The truth is that each of these ages was in general better than the previous one, at least by from the moment when charts were produced ns showing the point when human wealth and well-being took spiralled almost vertically, precisely in the 18th century. But the problem doesn’t lie there. The 19th century was obviously wealthier than the 18th century, the 20th was wealthier than the 19th, and the 21st was wealthier than the 20th. All they were also, safe for epidemics, healthier. And also, safe for the wars, more comfortable. And all those centuries have witnessed innovations and discoveries emerge that have greatly improved the life of humanity. But sticking to that description can lead us to immoral arguments: after all, what differentiates the 1920s from the 1930s or the 1940s is not the fact that the latter had more houses with electricity or that radiotelephony became widespread. To say so is not to lie, but rather failing to see the moral evidence: what differentiates the start of the 1940s from the early 1920s is the rise of fascism and the mass murder machine of the holocaust. In that sense, humanity has gone backwards, even if technical innovations have not been uninvented or the economy has grown during the war. Current times are now dangerous given the level of democratic setback, the collapse of the rule of law, the return of national populism, the growth of intolerance and the destructive bias. Current times are entering a stage of existential crisis as a result of an ecological crisis falling out of control and the resulting climate change. None of this prevents cell phones and computers from getting better, the economy has made progress in relation to the 2008 crisis and there is even now a counterculture of tolerance, ecology and cosmopolitanism among the young. But that is not what defines current times. Politics, culture and human morality don’t always walk along the same lines of technology or science, or even of economics. And the consequences of forgetting this are often disastrous. We should bear this in mind at all times and in particular after 2020 - so that our history will not be written by the wrong hands. After all, it is up to us to “grow our own garden”, just like Candide finally answered Pangloss after having heard too many times that everything was going well in the best of all possible worlds. l

19


THE WORLD IN 2020

The world in numbers Countries europe 21 Austria 21 Belgium 21 Bulgaria 21 Croatia 21 Czech Republic 21 Denmark 21 Estonia 21 Finland 21 France 21 Germany 22 Greece 22 Hungary

22 Ireland 22 Italy 22 Latvia 22 Lithuania 22 Netherlands 22 Norway 22 Poland 22 Portugal 23 Romania 23 Russia 23 Slovakia 23 Slovenia 23 Spain

23 Sweden 23 Switzerland 23 Turkey 23 Ukraine 23 United Kingdom

24 Japan 24 Kazakhstan 25 Malaysia 25 New Zealand 25 Pakistan 25 Philippines 25 Singapore 25 South Korea 25 Sri Lanka 25 Taiwan 25 Thailand 25 Uzbekistan 25 Vietnam

asia 24 Australia 24 Bangladesh 24 China 24 Hong Kong 24 India 24 Indonesia

GDP

© The World In 2020, The Economist Newspaper Limited, London

0

2

4

6

The world’s ten fastest-growing economies in 2020 will all be in Africa or Asia, except for tiny Guyana (population 780,000) in South America, which will comfortably take the number-one spot as oil begins to gush from its offshore fields. Mining, tourism and oil-related construction will provide a further boost. Construction will also figure in second-placed Syria’s growth surge as the country rebuilds after a devastating civil war, even if fighting continues in some border areas. Successful macroeconomic management is bringing sustained growth lower down the list. Bangladesh will extend a run of strong growth that began in 2004, tripling the size of its economy. Growth rates in Myanmar and Ethiopia are settling down after even more impressive runs. Nepal and Ivory Coast are later to the party but doing well, too. Bhutan, which gauges its development in Gross National Happiness, will also shine on the more conventional measure of GDP. India, the fastest-growing large economy, will just make it into the top ten, with GDP rising by 6.7%. Government stimulus will boost the country’s performance in 2020. China, once a fixture on this list, is now a bigger, slower giant, but should still muster another year or two of 6% growth.

Guyana 35.0

Syria 8.9

Rwanda 7.5

Bangladesh 7.7

20

latin america 26 Argentina 26 Bolivia 26 Brazil 26 Chile 26 Colombia 27 Cuba 27 Ecuador

middle east & africa 27 Algeria 27 Angola 27 Cameroon 27 Egypt 27 Ethiopia 27 Iran

Ethiopia 7.4

28 Iraq 28 Israel 28 Jordan 28 Kenya 28 Lebanon 28 Libya 28 Morocco 28 Nigeria 28 Saudi Arabia 28 South Africa 28 Syria 28 Zimbabwe

Bhutan 7.3

Myanmar 7.0

Nepal 6.9

Ivory Coast 6.8

North America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

1.6

1.4

2.4

Mexico

Germany France

Middle East & north Africa

United States Cuba

2.3

Latin America

Angola Brazil

China

Iran

Nepal

India Myanmar

Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda

Sub-Saharan Africa Argentina

S Korea

Vietnam

Indonesia

5.2 excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand

South Africa

Japan

0.4

Asia

Zimbabwe

1.2

Bhutan

Bangladesh

Saudi Arabia

Ivory Coast

Guyana

Syria

Nigeria

Venezuela

India 6.7

Russia

Britain

Canada

Australia

Australasia

2.5

New Zealand

2.3

Falling interest rates

Bigger pay packets

Money-market interest rates, emerging markets

Average wages, selected economies, inflation-adjusted

2016=100

300

Local currencies, 2010=100

110 Germany

Philippines Argentina Turkey

Canada

200

Australia France

105

Mexico Indonesia

2020 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. Inflation: year-on-year annual average. Dollar GDPs calculated using 2020 forecasts for dollar exchange rates (GDP at PPP, or purchasing-power parity, shown in brackets). All figures simplified by rounding.

27 Paraguay 27 Peru 27 Uruguay 27 Venezuela

Top ten growers

% change on a year earlier -2

north america 26 Canada 26 Mexico 26 United States

India

17

18

19

Britain

100

Egypt Brazil

2016

United States

100

20

95

0 2010

12

14

16

18

20


Trade fades again Western Europe, contribution of external trade to real GDP growth, percentage points 1.2 0.8 0.4 0

the jobs market especially tight. The government, a coalition of the centrist ANO movement and the centre-left Czech Social Democratic Party under scandal-plagued Andrej Babis, relies on the Communist Party to muster a majority in the legislature and won’t see out its term, so 2020 may be an election year. For now, the government will press ahead with its liberal, pro-market and pro-EU reform agenda.

Edging back down Czech Republic, fiscal balance, % of GDP 2

-0.4 2011

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Austria

Bulgaria

GDP growth 1.4% GDP per head $53,660 (PPP: $60,610) Inflation 1.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.1 Population 8.7m

GDP growth 2.8% GDP per head $10,200 (PPP: $24,890) Inflation 2.6% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.3 Population 6.9m

The centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and its leader, Sebastian Kurz, emerged victorious from an election in September 2019. The ÖVP is in a commanding position in coalition negotiations, as no viable government can be formed without it. Although the ÖVP has been talking with the Green party, it is more likely to re-form its coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, owing to policy overlap between the two parties. Tax cuts and migration controls will be priorities. Economic growth will be lacklustre as Germany underperforms.

The government of the centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party and its nationalist coalition partners suffer from internal tensions and a slim majority; expect elections before its term ends officially in 2021. The EU will demand the government take up judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures. An aspiration to join the euro will keep reforms on track, though euro adoption remains some years away. The economy will slow as credit tightens and international demand wanes.

to watch: Transparency international. The European Congress of Radiology will be held in Vienna in March, with artificial intelligence as a central theme. Will AI take over the analysis of scans?

Belgium GDP growth 1.3% GDP per head $47,120 (PPP: $52,900) Inflation 1.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.1 Population 11.6m

Croatia GDP growth 2.5% GDP per head $15,260 (PPP: $30,030) Inflation 1.6% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.8 Population 4.1m

Elections are due in late 2020, but the prime minister, Andrej Plenkovic, and his left-right coalition government enjoy only a slim majority and may not last that long. With the opposition struggling to capitalise on the government’s troubles, Mr Plenkovic’s centre-right Croatian Democratic Union should remain dominant if early elections occur. The country suffers from heavy debt and an ageing population, but infrastructure spending and tourism will keep the economy growing.

The caretaker government under the soon-to-depart prime minister, Charles Michel, has limited powers and no policy mandate. The centre-right New Flemish Alliance emerged from elections in May 2019 with the largest vote nationally, but the Socialist Party leads in Wallonia and in the capital, so building a workable national majority won’t be easy. That Czech Republic means a full-time government isn’t on the cards until late 2019 at the earliest. GDP growth to watch : Caretaker takeover. Mr Michel will take up the presidency of the European Council at the end of 2019, requiring a replacement caretaker if no government has been formed.

2.4% GDP per head $24,510 (PPP: $43,630) Inflation 2.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.2 Population 10.7m

After six consecutive years of growth averaging around 3.4%, the economy will show signs of overheating, with

0 -2 -4 2011

13

15

17

19 20

Denmark GDP growth 1.8% GDP per head $60,980 (PPP: $59,480) Inflation 1.0% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.4 Population 5.8m

Finland GDP growth 1.0% GDP per head $50,490 (PPP: $51,150) Inflation 1.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.8 Population 5.5m

Government will shift to the left after the 2019 election victory of the Social Democratic Party, in coalition with four centre-left parties under the prime minister, Sanna Marin. Ms Marin will focus on climate change and social inequality, and will ease the austerity drive imposed under the previous centre-right coalition. The Finns, a party of the far right that came second in the election, will soften its stance after other parties shunned it in coalition talks. The economy will slow as global demand weakens.

France GDP growth 1.3% GDP per head $42,820 (PPP: $49,690) Inflation 1.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.5 Population 65.3m

Emmanuel Macron, the president, will push an agenda that includes something for everyone: improving productivity, creating jobs, making the welfare system The Social Democratic Party won an election in 2019 in part by toughening its more generous and cutting taxes. The fiscal deficit will fall slightly but remain immigration position to de-fang the far right, but now must moderate that stance above the EU’s 3% threshold as the government meets pledges to the gilets if its minority government is to retain jaunes (yellow jackets)protesters. The the support of fellow “red bloc” parties. economy will receive a slight boost from Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister, less restrictive labour laws and lower will favour environmental regulation, corporate taxes. tax-funded welfare reforms and tighter immigration rules. Monetary stimulus and domestic demand will support the to watch: G force. France will roll out 5G economy. mobile services in 2020, despite disruption from American sanctions on Chinese equipment supplier Huawei.

Estonia

GDP growth 2.3% GDP per head $24,590 (PPP: $39,600) Inflation 2.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.3 Population 1.3m

Juri Ratas, the prime minister, will struggle to impose order on his ideologically diverse coalition government, uniting the left-leaning Centre Party with the populist and Eurosceptic Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), whose support surged in the 2019 election, and the conservative Pro Patria party. Areas of social policy, including abortion and citizenship laws, will generate friction, but the government will survive. Domestic demand and investment are robust, and will help offset a weaker external environment, though GDP growth will soften. to watch: Off the rails. Coalition tensions could arise over Estonia’s participation in Rail Baltica, linking the Baltics with Europe’s standard-gauge network, which EKRE opposes.

Germany GDP growth 0.9% GDP per head $47,680 (PPP: $56,100) Inflation 1.5% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.2 Population 82.8m

Epochal change awaits as Angela Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor nears an end in 2021. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Mrs Merkel’s hand-picked successor to lead the Christian Democrats, will try to rebuild her credibility after some early gaffes. The Social Democrats, junior partner in the “grand coalition” government, may trigger early elections by defecting. The economy slumped in 2019 but will be helped in 2020 by rising government spending and tax relief. to watch: Play date. The Oberammergau Passion Play, performed every ten years in the Bavarian town since 1634, will be produced for the 42nd time, from May to October.

21


THE WORLD IN 2020 Greece GDP growth 2.0% GDP per head $21,390 (PPP: $32,790) Inflation 1.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.6 Population 10.4m

After the four-year reign of the radical left-wing Syriza party, government is back in the hands of the centre-right New Democracy party under the prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, but the problems that led voters to embrace populism persist. The country will remain under EU scrutiny as it tries to wrestle down its huge public debt. A tight budget will crimp the economy, but tourism will break records and tax cuts and less bureaucracy will make for a better future. Balancing the books Greece, % of GDP Budget balance

Public debt 5

180

0

170

-5 -10

160

-15 2011

2020

2011

2020

to watch: Street view. The Syriza movement is out of power but will embrace its opposition role in the public square.

Hungary GDP growth 3.0% GDP per head $17,210 (PPP: $35,080) Inflation 2.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.4 Population 9.7m

cumbs to infighting. The timing depends on the nature of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU and the degree of economic disruption that Ireland faces as a result of the upheaval next door. The vote will bring another fragile coalition. Defying politics, the economy has rallied, while the budget is balanced and the financial system out of intensive care. External threats, of which Brexit is but the largest, mean the economy will lose some steam.

Italy GDP growth 0.4% GDP per head $33,300 (PPP: $43,670) Inflation 0.5% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.2 Population 60.5m

The new coalition government that took office in September, led by the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, and comprising the anti-establishment Five-Star Movement and the centreleft Democratic Party, will be less confrontational towards EU rules than its predecessor. However, the two parties compete for the same voters, and their partnership may not last more than 12-18 months. Despite a probable agreement on the budget for 2020, reducing debt will be difficult because of weak GDP growth and inflation.

Latvia

Netherlands

GDP growth 3.2% GDP per head $20,550 (PPP: $24,230) Inflation 2.8% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.5 Population 1.9m

The five-party centre-right coalition under the prime minister, Krisjanis Karins, got off to a shaky start in 2019 The three-term conservative-nationalist but will survive. There is broad national agreement on fiscal prudence, progovernment under Viktor Orbán and business policies and support for the his Fidesz party will press on with a EU. The focus in 2020 will be on impleprogramme that is hostile to immigration, weakens institutional checks on its menting anti-money-laundering rules, reforming the energy sector and counpower, advocates for Russia and raises tering the decline in the working-age the hackles of the EU authorities—all vote-winners. With skills gaps threaten- population. Diplomatic relations with Russia will remain tense over its illegal ing economic growth, the government annexation of Crimea, and over moves will promote training for a workforce de-skilled by emigration. The economy to phase out the Russian language in will cool as tougher external conditions ethnic-minority schools. Economic bite, but growth will still surpass the EU growth will edge up. average. New normal

Ireland

Latvia, GDP, % increase on a year earlier 8

GDP growth 2.7% GDP per head $82,300 (PPP: $91,640) Inflation 0.5% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.5 Population 4.9m

6

An election looms in 2020 as the weak Fine Gael-led minority coalition under the prime minister, Leo Varadkar, suc-

0

22

4 2

2011

The country’s first centre-right coalition government since the 1980s has a narrow majority in parliament but GDP growth 2.6% struggles for agreement among its GDP per head $20,740 (PPP: $40,420) four constituents. The Progress Party, Inflation 2.2% furthest to the right, may defect to Budget balance (% GDP) -0.1 stanch its haemorrhaging popularPopulation 2.7m ity, but the constitution requires the government to complete its term, so elections are not on the cards. The minority centre-left government Growth in exports, investment and will stumble towards elections in domestic consumer demand will susOctober 2020, though resignation threats from the prime minister, Saulius tain the economy. Skvernelis, mean it may do so under new leadership. Regardless of the hand to watch: Oiled wheels. The economy on the rudder, the centre-left should will get a boost from recovering retain control of government, with investment in the oil sector as new the main opposition parties split over fields come under development. key issues. Government spending to improve living standards will push the budget into deficit, though well within Poland the limits set by the EU.

Lithuania

13

15

17

19 20

GDP growth 1.6% GDP per head $54,260 (PPP: $60,260) Inflation 1.8% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.2 Population 17.3m

GDP growth 3.3% GDP per head $17,040 (PPP: $35,890) Inflation 2.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.2 Population 38.2m

The right-leaning Law and Justice party retained power at elections in October 2019, with its illiberal, polarising reforms securing an electoral base that took shape during its first term starting The centre-right coalition governin 2015. The prime minister, Mateusz ment has a one-seat majority in the Morawiecki, will make soothing noises, lower house and is outnumbered in but Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party chairthe Senate, but should see out its term despite conflicts on immigraman and the de facto head of governtion, taxes and energy policy. The ment, will undermine democratic checks prime minister, Mark Rutte, will push and centralise power. After a period of for more influence in EU affairs after fast growth, the economy will run into Brexit, pressing for closer ties but capacity constraints and softening ext­ emphasising national responsibilities ernal demand. over immigration and budgets. The economy will be hit by worsening to watch: Sanction sortie. The EU may external conditions. respond to the erosion of liberal norms in Poland with sanctions, but like-minded Hungary will probably block them. to watch: Right back. Right-wing populism in rich countries started in the Netherlands. It may also end there, as the Party for Freedom and its rival, the Portugal Forum for Democracy, stagnate.

Norway GDP growth 1.7% GDP per head $78,990 (PPP: $69.390) Inflation 2.2% Budget balance (% GDP) 6.7 Population 5.4m

GDP growth 1.6% GDP per head $23,430 (PPP: $36,100) Inflation 0.5% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.1 Population 10.3m

The ruling Socialist Party won a clear victory at elections in October 2019, but fell short of an absolute majority and so will run a minority administration. The new


THE WORLD IN 2020 Slovakia

Climbing out Portugal, budget balance, % of GDP 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2011

13

15

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19 20

government will be slightly more unstable than the prior one, but will preserve a consensus around fiscal responsibility, which may lead to the country’s first-ever balanced budget, though it will face rising resistance to austerity. Consumer demand is robust but weakening external conditions will limit growth.

Romania GDP growth 3.3% GDP per head $13,900 (PPP: $32,220) Inflation 3.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.3 Population 19.2m

The Social Democratic Party-led government fell after a successful vote of no confidence in October 2019. The newly named prime minister, Ludovic Orban, the leader of the right-wing National Liberal Party (PNL), will not find it easy to form an administration. But he will succeed, and the PNL is favoured to prevail in the general election scheduled for late 2020. With a vote pending, the government will keep the fiscal taps open, boosting household spending. Credit expansion and building construction will also support growth.

Russia GDP growth 1.5% GDP per head $11,610 (PPP: $28,580) Inflation 4.2% Budget balance (% GDP) 1.5 Population 149.0m

Despite occasional pro-market r­ het­oric, economic and social policy will remain nationalist and protectionist, centralised around the president, Vladimir Putin. Rising public discontent will be suppressed through crackdowns on institutions and tough administrative measures, particularly online, and the authorities will enforce their will on the streets, where necessary. As Mr Putin’s final term reaches its midpoint, uncertainty about the transition will mount, undermining what little long-term confidence may exist. GDP growth will remain below 2% unless there is a spike in the price of oil, Russia’s chief export. to watch: Steppe too far. The regime’s nationalist stance implies and requires friction with the West, so sanctions applied over the 2014 annexation of Crimea will remain in place.

GDP growth 3.1% GDP per head $20,670 (PPP: $37,540) Inflation 2.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.6 Population 5.5m

Elections will take place in February, if the government lasts that long. The four-party coalition under the prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, is fractious and bruised by the political scandal that forced Mr Pellegrini’s predecessor, Robert Fico, to resign. Mr Pellegrini’s Smer-SD party will top the polls but lose power to a new liberal alliance. The anti-corruption campaign will progress, but slowly, in the face of entrenched interests. Infrastructure investment, health-care reform and improvements to the justice system will fare better. Rising wages will underpin domestic demand, and car production, which is critical to the economy, will support exports.

Slovenia GDP growth 3.0% GDP per head $28,970 (PPP: $42,720) Inflation 1.6% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.2 Population 2.1m

market liberalisation are needed to keep the economy growing but are anathema to Podemos. If Mr Sánchez cannot make it stick, the country could be facing its fifth general election in as many years.

Sweden GDP growth 1.5% GDP per head $55,540 (PPP: $56,960) Inflation 1.6% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.4 Population 10.1m

A minority coalition government comprising the Social Democrats and the Green Party relies on an agreement with two small parties on the centre-right, but is stable, and the prime minister, Stefan Lofven, will carry on to the end of his term. Under the agreement, the government will embrace some conservative policies, such as the removal of a 5% additional tax on high-earners, along with other tax cuts, but will also pledge to boost welfare spending and add environmental levies. The economy will slow, reflecting a subdued housing market and weak spending by consumers and businesses, but growth will remain close to the EU average. Go slow Sweden, % increase on a year earlier

The five parties in the minority coaliGDP Personal disposable tion government of the prime minister, income 4 Marjan Sarec, are divided over policies such as health care and the minimum 3 wage, and the administration may well 2 fall before its term ends—the fourth consecutive government to meet that 1 fate. Any successor will be equally 0 fragile given the fragmented state of politics, where the strongest force, the 2011 13 15 17 19 20 anti-immigrant Slovenian Democratic Party, is repudiated by coalition-makers. Privatisation and reforms to public Switzerland services will top the policy agenda. Economic growth will remain on a GDP growth 1.2% downward trend. GDP per head $84,600 (PPP: $71,020) to watch: Kick-starter. The Taekwondo

World Cup will be held in the port of Koper in October.

Spain GDP growth 1.9% GDP per head $31,310 (PPP: $42,930) Inflation 1.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.7 Population 46.8m

The precarious left-wing minority coalition between the Socialist Workers Party and Podemos relies on support from minor and regional parties to muster a majority and faces implacable opposition from Catalan nationalists and a resurgent far-right. Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez will face conflicting pressures if he holds on to the premiership. Fiscal restraint and labour

Inflation 0.8% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.4 Population 8.7m

The right-leaning Swiss People’s Party (SVP) retained its plurality in the legislature at elections in October 2019, but the Green Party made a particulary strong showing. The country’s consensual political system will constrain the SVP’s populist instincts, but the party may nonetheless revive its efforts to tighten immigration from the EU. Negotiations on a new policy framework with the EU will be contentious. As is the case in the rest of Europe, the economy will grow slowly as global conditions tighten.

Turkey GDP growth 4.0% GDP per head $9,850 (PPP: $30,720) Inflation 10.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 Population 84.3m

With a strong electoral mandate, a comfortable legislative majority and strengthened executive powers, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president, will encourage looser fiscal and interest-rate policy to patch up the damage wreaked by a currency crisis in 2018 and recession in 2019. Corruption and structural constraints will go unaddressed, however. Opposition mayors in Istanbul and Ankara will use their platforms to channel disaffection. Turkey’s incursion into Kurdish parts of Syria will sour relations with America, whose shifting policies are to blame.

Ukraine GDP growth 3.0% GDP per head $3,800 (PPP: $10,300) Inflation 7.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.5 Population 41.8m

Volodymyr Zelensky, the comic actor whose role as president shifted from a TV show to real life, will use the parliamentary majority for his Servant of the People party to press an ambitious economic agenda. It includes lifting restrictions on land sales to stimulate agriculture, breaking up monopolies and reaching a new deal with the IMF. Reforms notwithstanding, the prospect of political stability will give the economy a boost, though headbutting with Russia in the Sea of Azov will dent exports and the dispute over the occupied regions of Donbas will smoulder. to watch: Streaming services. Ukraine stands to lose gas-transit revenue as Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which diverts gas supplies to Europe via the Baltic Sea floor, starts operations.

United Kingdom GDP growth 1.1% GDP per head $43,090 (PPP: $47,890) Inflation 2.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.4 Population 67.9m

The majority Conservative government under the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will take Britain out of the EU at the beginning of the year, but will still be negotiating the new relationship as the year ends. The government will loosen fiscal policy after a decade of austerity, with spending rising on homebuilding, transport infrastructure, health, education and to watch: Brexit factor. The EU will climate. Long-term economic issues toughen its negotiating stance with Switzerland as it seeks to deny Britain of sluggish productivity, regional any precedent for seeking concessions inequality and high cost of living will also come into focus. in post-Brexit bargaining.

23


THE WORLD IN 2020

Asia Catching up GDP per person, % change on a year earlier, 2011-20 average OECD average New Zealand Singapore Thailand Pakistan Japan Malaysia Australia

South Taiwan Korea

Hong Kong

1

2

Indonesia

Bangladesh Vietnam

Sri Lanka

Philippines

4

5

3

China

India

6

7

Australia

China

GDP growth 2.3% GDP per head $56,420 (PPP: $56,290) Inflation 1.5% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.0 Population 25.5m

GDP growth 6.1% GDP per head $10,090 (PPP: $20,930) Inflation 3.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.5 Population 1.40bn

The three-term Liberal-National coalition government under the prime minister, Scott Morrison, will emphasise stability and continuity after the upheaval that led to the ousting of his predecessors, Tony Abbott ( in 2015) and Malcolm Turnbull ( in 2018). Divisions within the government over energy policy and climate change will fester. Attempts to implement probusiness policies may founder in the Senate, where the government lacks a majority. Business confidence will rally nevertheless, sustaining economic growth.

The trade war with America will drag on, adding to the headwinds facing China’s economy, but the pursuit of technological independence and global influence will have longer-term implications. The president, Xi Jinping, will avoid drama that could undermine his well-laid plans to stay on beyond the traditional ten-year term, and will be aided by an ever-tighter grip on public and private life. Separatism and public protest will fester, but won’t erupt. The authorities will use monetary and fiscal policy to cushion the economy, sustaining gently declining growth.

to watch: Neighbourhood watch. The government will step up aid to the Pacific islands, in part to counter growing Chinese influence in the region.

Unbelievably steady China GDP, trn yuan, 1995 prices 60 40

Bangladesh GDP growth 7.7% GDP per head $2,080 (PPP: $5,180) Inflation 5.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.7 Population 164.7m

The Awami League, led by the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, will progress through its third consecutive term with an unshaken grip on all the levers of power, and will shrug off opposition, which will mostly be expressed on the street. The budget deficit will widen as the government invests in capital projects but makes slow progress on broadening the tax base. Monetary policy will remain loose, and the economy will slowly close the income gap with other emerging markets. to watch: Bridging the gap. The Padma Bridge, Bangladesh’s most costly infrastructure project ever, will be completed in 2020 and opened in 2021, linking the country’s south-west and north.

24

20 0 2010

12

14

16

18

20

to watch: Double date. China will meet the target of doubling the size of its economy in the decade to 2020.

Hong Kong GDP growth 2.3% GDP per head $51,920 (PPP: $68,240) Inflation 2.6% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.0 Population 7.5m

Street protests over legal and social issues have roiled the territory since June, undermining the authority of the chief executive, Carrie Lam. Concessions have not placated the protesters. China may yet send in its army to quell the disturbances. The monetary

authority will lower interest rates, in line with America’s Fed, fuelling spending. The economy will get a boost as the impact of the protests on tourism and retailing dissipates.

to watch: Capital purchase. Land acquisition will begin in East Kalimantan province in 2020 as the government starts the process of moving its capital city from Jakarta.

India

Japan

GDP growth 6.7% GDP per head $2,490 (PPP: $8,860) Inflation 4.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.4 Population 1.38bn

GDP growth 0.4% GDP per head $42,560 (PPP: $45,100) Inflation 1.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.7 Population 126.5m

In power for a second term and with the largest parliamentary majority since 1984, Narendra Modi’s government, supported by his Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition, will press on with its Hindu-nationalist agenda and with core economic reforms. These reforms will include strengthening the banks, creating incentives for labour-intensive industries and further loosening foreign-investment rules. But the administration will skirt key productivity-raising measures, such as land-acquisition and labour reforms, that could hurt its popularity. Growth will pick up as sentiment improves.

Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, will begin his eighth year in office unchallenged in his party and with a decisive legislative majority. The country’s ageing population has become a major issue, and the government will pursue measures to keep more people in the workforce until later in life. Hopes of reforming the country’s pacifist constitution are on hold for now for lack of a super-majority in the upper chamber. An increase in the consumption tax in late 2019 will chop the rate of economic growth by half in 2020, although higher government spending will cushion the blow.

to watch: Kashmir clash. The backlash against the suspension of Indian Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy will raise the threat of terrorist attacks.

Indonesia GDP growth 5.0% GDP per head $4,700 (PPP: $15,000) Inflation 3.0% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.1 Population 267.5m

Kazakhstan GDP growth 3.4% GDP per head $9,230 (PPP: $29,990) Inflation 5.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.6 Population 18.8m

The president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, will focus on consolidating his authority after winning an uncompetitive election in 2019 to succeed Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had ruled for nearly three decades. He must seek a powersharing balance with Mr Nazarbayev, who will remain influential behind the scenes. Protests that increased late in Mr Nazarbayev’s tenure won’t end, drawing a harsh response from the authorities. Policy will focus on diversifying and increasing value-added activities in the economy and easing bureaucracy.

The president, Joko Widodo, will use the second term he won in 2019 to advance his economic-growth programme, upgrading the country’s infrastructure, reforming foreign-investment rules and improving the education and skills of its workforce. He will also aim to develop downstream industries to add value to the country’s natural resources and relax labour laws so that more firms hire on fulltime contracts, though the latter initiative to watch: For sale. A privatisation prowill face opposition from unions. The gramme that aims to raise $7bn from economy will stick to its trend growth rate stakes in around 900 companies is of around 5%. scheduled to be completed in 2020.


THE WORLD IN 2020 Malaysia GDP growth 4.8% GDP per head $12,050 (PPP: $35,710) Inflation 1.5% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.4 Population 32.4m

The Pakatan Harapan coalition government faces a tricky leadership transition. Mahathir Mohamad, the incumbent and at 95 in July 2020 the world’s oldest head of government, has promised to give way to Anwar Ibrahim, the head of the coalition’s largest party, but may seek to hold on to power. There will be little challenge from an opposition Barisan Nasional coalition in disarray. Economically, the government will focus on balancing the books while supporting low-income households. Spending spree Malaysia

Real GDP, % increase on a year earlier

6 3 0

Budget balance, % of GDP

-3 -6

2011

13

15

17

19 20

New Zealand GDP growth 2.2% GDP per head $42,060 (PPP: $43,370) Inflation 1.9% Budget balance (% GDP) 0.8 Population 5.0m

The Labour Party-led government under the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has hit a few bumps in its first term, but the party’s strong response has put it in a good position to secure a second term in office after elections that must be held by November 2020. Both the Greens and Labour’s current coalition partner, New Zealand First, will prefer Labour to the opposition National Party as the inevitable post-vote negotiations get under way. Economic growth will slow as internal demand and foreign trade dip.

of the two main opposition parties are entangled in legal challenges, but they will collaborate to obstruct the government’s agenda. Religious protests by Islamist opposition groups may turn violent, while Baloch separatists will remain active. Pakistan is in the midst of its 22nd IMF financial-support agreement; the resulting erosion of living standards and the rising tax burden will limit economic growth.

Philippines GDP growth 5.2% GDP per head $3,690 (PPP: $10,050) Inflation 2.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.3 Population 109.6m

The president, Rodrigo Duterte, will maintain a tight grip on power, supported by a loyal coalition rallied by his daughter and the mayor of Davao City, Sara Duterte. Ambitious plans to revamp the country’s creaking infrastructure will advance slowly. Remittances, a key source of household spending, will fall as America’s growth slips. In the absence of structural reforms and with business confidence softening, fiscal and monetary policy will be used to buoy up the economy, though growth will dip.

Singapore GDP growth 1.2% GDP per head $68,350 (PPP: $107,890) Inflation 0.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -0.4 Population 5.6m

Early elections in the first few months of 2020 will deliver a victory for the People’s Action Party, dominant since 1959, and pave the way for a transfer of power from Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister, to Heng Swee Keat, deputy prime minister and finance minister. The territory faces headwinds from the trade war between America and China and declining activity in both markets. Government spending directed at education, health and child care will stimulate the economy.

to watch: Fantasy islands. The 78th World Science Fiction Convention is set for Wellington in July and August.

South Korea

Pakistan

GDP growth 2.2% GDP per head $32,370 (PPP: $46,410) Inflation 1.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.0 Population 51.3m

GDP growth 2.6% GDP per head $1,220 (PPP: $5,910) Inflation 6.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -7.8 Population 220.9m

The government of the prime minister, Imran Khan, has the tacit support of the army, which enjoys de facto control of defence and foreign policy. Leaders

The governing Minjoo Party under the president, Moon Jae-in, will increase its parliamentary majority at elections in April but remain short of the threefifths majority needed to legislate without seeking allies. The government will maintain open channels with North Korea, inviting sniping from the

Thailand

Shrinking surplus South Korea, trade balance, $bn 125 100 75 50 25 0 2011

13

15

17

19 20

conservative opposition. The administration will use fiscal policy to pump up domestic spending in the face of trade tensions with Japan and the tariff war between America and China. to watch: Spark plug. The government will provide $900m in subsidies to promote electric-vehicle use.

Sri Lanka GDP growth 3.4% GDP per head $4,360 (PPP: $14,990) Inflation 4.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.4 Population 21.4m

Presidential elections in late 2019 will deliver victory to Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPP), returning to power the clique that dominated under the previous president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Gotabaya’s older brother. If elected, Mr Rajapaksa will trigger early legislative elections in 2020, setting up a clean sweep for the SLPP. Sinhalese nationalism will be fuelled by outrage over bombings blamed on a local affiliate of Islamic State. The economy will rally as tourism and government spending pick up. to watch: Looser belts. Fiscal discipline will ebb as an IMF funding programme runs out in mid-2020.

Taiwan GDP growth 1.7% GDP per head $25,880 (PPP: $57,440) Inflation 0.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.2 Population 23.6m

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will retain its hold on the presidency in elections scheduled for January, securing a second term for the incumbent, Tsai Ingwen, but will lose its legislative majority to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The DPP has lost steam: it has not kept policy promises and the economy is flagging. A KMT majority will support the existing policy of diversifying trade links to sustain exports. to watch: Triangulation. America’s clashes with China over trade present opportunities for Taiwan, such as more co‑operation with America on defence, though mostly on a commercial basis.

GDP growth 2.1% GDP per head $7,540 (PPP: $20,600) Inflation 1.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.6 Population 69.8m

Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister and a former coup leader, will rely on backing from the military-appointed Senate to make progress on a programme of infrastructure renewal and increased foreign investment. Animosity between pro- and anti-junta forces will simmer without threatening the status quo. Relations with Western powers, curtailed after the coup in 2014, will be restored, but China’s role as an economic and diplomatic partner will grow. The economy will slow as exports slip and domestic consumption remains lacklustre.

Uzbekistan GDP growth 5.4% GDP per head $1,720 (PPP: $8,400) Inflation 11.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.2 Population 33.5m

The president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who succeeded long-time leader Islam Karimov in 2016, will try to liberalise an economy bungled under the long rule of his predecessor, and to improve ties with neighbours. But he will also seek to retain Mr Karimov’s tight control over social and political life. Parliamentary elections in late 2019 or early 2020 won’t change the power dynamic. Tax reform and higher social spending will keep the economy in catch-up mode, though questions will be raised about the quality of official statistics.

Vietnam GDP growth 6.5% GDP per head $3,080 (PPP: $8,640) Inflation 3.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.5 Population 97.3m

Power is concentrated in the president, Nguyen Phu Trong, who is also Communist Party general secretary— the first person to hold both posts since Ho Chi Minh. The economy will benefit as foreign companies relocate from once-cheap China, a trend accelerated by China’s trade tussle with America. Domestic economic reforms will give a further boost, with the government bent on restructuring state-owned industries and pepping up trade. The economy will thrive, though the pace will slow slightly. to watch: Pole position. Formula 1 will see the first ever Vietnam Grand Prix when Hanoi hosts the third race of the season in April.

25


THE WORLD IN 2020

Latin America The producers

Trying to catch up

Productivity, % change on a year earlier

2.5

United States

Households earning above $10,000 per year, %

100 Chile Argentina Peru Ecuador Brazil Colombia

2.0 1.5

Canada

1.0 0.5

80 60 40

0

Mexico

20

-0.5

Venezuela

-1.0

2011

12

13

14

15

Canada GDP growth 1.7% GDP per head $48,210 (PPP: $50,730 Inflation 1.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.0 Population 37.7m

Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, won another term in elections in late 2019, but his Liberal Party lost support, and he will now preside over a minority goverment. The country is deeply divided between eastern liberals and western conservatives, and between rural and urban districts. Investment in infrastructure will be a priority, but the fiscal gap will widen. The government will support local companies hit by America’s trade and taxation policies. Economic growth will be stable. to watch: Carbon clash. The government

will impose carbon taxes on resourcerich Alberta, which the opposition-run state will fight in the courts.

Mexico GDP growth 1.2% GDP per head $9,640 (PPP: $20,520) Inflation 3.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.9 Population 128.9m

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who pledged to be a “transformational” leader in his successful presidential bid in 2018, will struggle to meet voters’

16

17

18

19

20

expectations given the country’s deep structural challenges and tight budget. However, majorities in both houses for a coalition led by his Morena party, and strong representation in state legislatures, will give him room for manoeuvre. The government’s debt-servicing costs will rise amid credit-rating downgrades for the state oil giant, Pemex. Economic growth will rally but remain well below potential.

2011

12

13

14

15

16

Argentina GDP growth -2.3% GDP per head $8,940 (PPP: $21,680) Inflation 44.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.9 Population 45.2m

Voters put off by Mauricio Macri’s painful economic reforms delivered by replaced him as president with the Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernández, in elections in October 2019. Mr to watch: Northern fights. Relations with the United States will be volatile as Fernández professes moderation, but Donald Trump campaigns for a second comes on the coat-tails of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, whose chaotic term, with immigration across the Rio tenure (2007-15) led to Mr Macri’s Grande a hot-button issue. election. The economy will contract for a third year, though growth in farming, mining and tourism will limit the United States damage. GDP growth 1.6% GDP per head $66,650 (PPP: $66,650) Inflation 1.6% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.0 Population 334.6m

Having survived the impeachment process, Donald Trump will be re-elected president if the American economy remains strong and the opposition Democrats nominate a candidate who is perceived to be too far to the left. The economy is, however, weakening, and a slump of some kind in 2020 is all but certain, lengthening Mr Trump’s odds. A partial deal with China will turn down the heat on the trade war, but the contest for technological supremacy has decades to run.

to watch: Debt doubts. Argentina missed a debt payment in August 2019. Expect more defaults.

Bolivia GDP growth 3.9% GDP per head $3,890 (PPP: $8,590) Inflation 3.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -7.6 Population 11.7m

The dramatic departure to exile in Mexico of President Evo Morales in late 2019 after allegations of electoral fraud is testimony to the rise of an urban middle class that eroded his dominance. The country faces a nervous period of recrimination and polarisation in the run-up to fresh elections. Gas revenue will support economic growth.

Brazil GDP growth 2.0% GDP per head $9,120 (PPP: $16,960) Inflation 3.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.9 Population 212.1m

Jair Bolsonaro, the economically liberal but socially conservative president, will lose some popularity as

26

17

18

19

0

20

his pro-market reforms are held up in congress, where his Liberal Social Party has just 10% of seats in the 30-party legislature. A key pension reform passed in October 2019, reassuring foreign creditors. The economy will benefit from the changes already enacted and others to come, particularly to labour markets, small-business regulation, taxes and state-owned industry. to watch: Poll pilot. Municipal elections in October will provide an early test of Mr Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022.

Chile GDP growth 3.4% GDP per head $15,720 (PPP: $27,240) Inflation 2.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.2 Population 19.1m

The centre-right minority government of the president, Sebastián Piñera, faces mid-term struggles amid stubborn unemployment and a sluggish economy. Efforts to boost productivity and narrow the wealth gap, and changes to tax and pension rules, will be delayed as the “Let’s Go Chile” government battles a hostile congress. The economy will get a bump from favourable commodity markets. to watch : Resource boost. Low oil prices and a rising copper market will improve Chile’s terms of trade, narrowing the current-account deficit.

Colombia GDP growth 3.0% GDP per head $6,190 (PPP: $16,180) Inflation 3.2% Budget balance (% GDP) -2.4 Population 50.9m

The declaration in 2019 by some former FARC guerrillas that they were returning to the armed struggle will not shatter the 2016 peace deal, but will add to pressure on the president, Iván Duque, from hardliners in his own


THE WORLD IN 2020 Democratic Centre party to suspend the controversial agreement, and from the opposition to implement its terms fully. The economy will shrug off political upheaval, helped by infrastructure spending and consumer demand. On trend Colombia

9

Real GDP, % increase on a year earlier

6 3 0 -3

Budget balance, % of GDP 2011

13

15

17

-6

19 20

Cuba GDP growth -0.2% GDP per head $9.890 (PPP: $14,360) Inflation 5.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.4 Population 11.3m

Pro-market reforms are moving ahead at a snail’s pace, and the private sector will expand only slowly. As leaders of the 1959 revolution leave the scene, a younger generation will contest power under a new structure, with the president choosing a prime minister to be ratified by the National Assembly, and a third pillar of power headed by the Communist Party chairman. The economy will be undermined by animosity from the Trump administration, the absence of largesse from Venezuela and a squeeze on foreign exchange.

Ecuador GDP growth 1.2% GDP per head $6,270 (PPP: $11,920) Inflation 1.5% Budget balance (% GDP) 1.1 Population 17.6m

Hand-picked by his predecessor, left-wing firebrand Rafael Correa, the president, Lenín Moreno, is undoing his mentor’s legacy. He has shunned Venezuela’s radical leader, whom Mr Correa lauded, and is talking trade with America. The fiscal adjustment from a deal with the IMF will slow the economy and test Mr Moreno’s popularity.

were leaked in 2019, but won’t make progress on planned tax and pension reforms as he seeks to rebuild political alliances. Although a two-year fiscalstimulus package will end, economic growth will jump as the Brazilian recovery takes hold.

Great rift Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP, % increase on a year earlier

to watch: Speed test. The Adventure Racing World Championships will be held at various sites in September. Modes of transport include bikes, ropes, canoes and trainers.

Peru GDP growth 3,2% GDP per head $7,520 (PPP: $13,500) Inflation 2.0% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.6 Population 33.2m

Politics has been dominated by repeated clashes between the executive and legislative branches, with the president, Martín Vizcarra, dissolving congress in October, a move that is being challenged in the courts. More wrangling lies ahead, but an election for new lawmakers in January 2020 should help to resolve the constitutional impasse. Whoever wins, the economy will enjoy its 22nd year of uninterrupted growth.

Uruguay GDP growth 1.5% GDP per head $17,440 (PPP: $24,810) Inflation 6.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.7 Population 3.5m

A centre-right candidate, Luis Lacalle Pou, was the runner-up in the first round of the October 2019 presidential election, and now has firmer backing than expected from other opposition parties, making him the favourite to win the late-November run-off. If he wins and cements his coalition, he would have a majority in congress, underpinning his agenda of fiscal and economic reforms.

Venezuela GDP growth -1.0% GDP per head $1,970 (PPP: $6,280) Inflation 678% Budget balance (% GDP) -26.3 Population 30.1m

The big question is whether international pressure and a flattened economy will force the president, GDP growth 3.3% Nicolás Maduro, out of office. If so, a GDP per head $6,320 (PPP: $14,430) unity government will replace him and Inflation 3.0% launch an economic stabilisation plan Budget balance (% GDP) -1.5 based on foreign financial assistance Population 7.1m and radical reforms. Juan Guaidó, who declared himself interim president in The president, Mario Abdo Benítez of the right-wing Colorado Party, is rallying 2019, will probably lead it. Recession will linger, but will feel like a boom after the details of a secret deal with after the deep collapse of recent years. Brazil over the co-owned Itaipú dam

Paraguay

Middle East and Africa

6

Exports, $bn

600

4

400

2

200

0 2011

13

15

17

19 20

0 2011

13

15

17

19 20

Algeria

Egypt

GDP growth 2.1% GDP per head $4,480 (PPP: $16,580) Inflation 3.4% Budget balance (% GDP) -7.1 Population 43.7m

GDP growth 5.1% GDP per head $3,620 (PPP: $14,050) Inflation 6.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -6.1 Population 100.1m

Elections that were due in 2019 after the resignation of long-time leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika will not take place until 2021, prolonging the tussle over succession and delaying efforts to reduce the economy’s dependence on oil. While a divided opposition, supported by public protests, pushes for deep political changes, the traditional power-brokers that stood behind Mr Bouteflika will call the shots.

The president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with a secure mandate and little effective opposition, will focus on reforming the economy, building business confidence and attracting foreign investment, though vested interests will throw sand in the gears. Reforms pursued under the aegis of the IMF will target the whopping budget deficit. Economic growth will slow slightly.

Angola

Ethiopia

GDP growth -1.9% GDP per head $2,470 (PPP: $5,940) Inflation 16.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.3 Population 32.9m

GDP growth 7.4% GDP per head $830 (PPP: $2,300) Inflation 10.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -3.1 Population 115.0m

The president, João Lourenço, will move ahead cautiously with his bid to replace the patronage networks left by his long-serving predecessor, José Eduardo dos Santos. Under IMF guidance, the government will raise taxes and cut subsidies to improve fiscal health, and seek investment in the oil sector. The economy will shrink for a fifth successive year, setting the foundation for a revival starting in 2021.

The government under the Nobelpeace-prize-winning prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, is trying to shift the main driver of economic growth from farming to manufacturing, and is investing in infrastructure, the power network and special industrial zones. The political opposition will remain weak, but factions within the ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, will resist changes that touch on their interests.

Cameroon GDP growth 3.5% GDP per head $1,650 (PPP: $4,000) Inflation 1.6% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.1 Population 26.6m

The seven-term president, Paul Biya, will work to contain separatist tensions among the Anglophone minority and Islamist activism from Boko Haram, but will lose seats in legislative elections set for early 2020. Opponents will take to the streets, but to little effect. Spending on security will stretch the fiscal deficit and low prices for oil and gas will slow the economy.

Iran GDP growth -1.6% GDP per head $5,600 (PPP: $18,800) Inflation 26.5% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.2 Population 84.0m

The economy will labour under American hostility, which will rise further as Donald Trump’s 2020 election campaign gathers pace. Popular protests at home and biting sanctions will encourage a deepening of hardline dominance over politics and economic policy. The moderate president, Hassan

27


THE WORLD IN 2020 Rouhani, will come under increasing Kenya pressure as attention turns to elections in 2021. The economy will shrink GDP growth again. GDP per head

Iraq

5.6% $1,870 (PPP: $3,830) Inflation 5.7% Budget balance (% GDP) -6.0 Population 53.8m

The president, Uhuru Kenyatta, faces division within his Jubilee Party government, but the opposition is equally divided, with the succession in 2022 a bone of contention on both sides. He will pursue his “Big Four” agenda— Islamic State has been driven from its developing manufacturing, building territorial holdings but will redouble food security, and improving health care Morocco and housing. Consumer spending will efforts to foster discontent among keep the economy humming. the minority Sunni population and GDP growth 2.6% destabilise the state. Protests in GDP per head $3.280 (PPP: $9,300) response to widespread joblessness Inflation 0.0% and poor services will add to the Lebanon Budget balance (% GDP) -3.6 instability. The fragile coalition govPopulation 36.9m ernment will nurture relations both GDP growth 1.8% with the Western powers and Iran. GDP per head $10,080 (PPP: $15,190) The supremacy of the king, Mohammed Oil output will rise, but the economy Inflation 3.5% VI, is not in doubt, but growing divisions will expand at far below its potential Budget balance (% GDP) -9.6 below him and simmering public discongrowth rate. Population 6.3m tent over joblessness, the rising cost of living and pervasive corruption will hurt stability. The rate of economic growth to watch: Counting exercise. In a sign Stability rests on the fragile foundations of growing stability, the country will of a sectarian carve-up following the civil will moderate as the EU, Morocco’s leading trade partner, struggles. undertake its first census since 1997. war that ended in 1990, with Christian, Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim and Druze contingents assigned parliamentary quo- to watch: Loan ranger. The authorities tas and key executive posts. This has left will test the appetite of international Israel the country enmeshed in sectarian squab- investors with a $1bn bond issue. GDP growth 2.8% bling, with violence a constant threat. The GDP per head $44,860 (PPP: $42,630) conflict in neighbouring Syria adds a furInflation 0.9% ther layer of rivalry. A stable diet of foreign Nigeria Budget balance (% GDP) -3.5 aid will support the economy. GDP growth 2.8% GDP per head $5,520 (PPP: $17,270) Inflation 1.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.3 Population 41.5m

Population 9.2m

Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, was severely weakened in the general election in September 2019 and was unable to form a new government. He will probably be forced to step down so his Likud party can serve in another coalition. The difficulties of forming a new government could lead to lengthy coalition negotiations and perhaps even a third round of elections. Growth will dip in line with American demand.

Jordan GDP growth 1.8% GDP per head $4,310 (PPP: $9,210) Inflation 2.0% Budget balance (% GDP) -5.6 Population 10.8m

King Abdullah II will keep tight control of government, supported by the security forces and a majority among a conservative population. Modernising reforms will be calibrated so as not to alarm religious leaders and hardliners. Finance will keep flowing from Western allies and Gulf states. The government will try to tighten the fiscal screws to honour its pledge to the IMF, but the deficit will still increase.

28

Libya

GDP growth 2.0% GDP per head $2,610 (PPP: $6,150) Inflation 11.3% Budget balance (% GDP) -1.8 Population 206.1m

South Africa GDP growth 1.6% GDP per head $6,080 (PPP: $14,170) Inflation 5.1% Budget balance (% GDP) -4.8 Population 59.3m

The president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has a full term ahead with a solid mandate, but will struggle to reduce unemployment, boost the economy and curb corruption. Loyalists of his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who resigned amid corruption allegations, will defend their interests, as will the union-backed left. The economy will remain tepid but pick up the pace.

Syria GDP growth 8.9% GDP per head $1,460 (PPP: $4,180) Inflation 15.9% Budget balance (% GDP) -10.9 Population 18.6m

Turkey’s incursion into Kurdish-held territory in the north adds a new element of instability to a fractured country. Still, with Bashar al-Assad again secure President Muhammadu Buhari’s in the presidency thanks to support second term will be trickier than the from Russia and Iran, attention will first, weighed down by flare-ups from turn to reconstruction in areas still Islamist insurgents in the north-east dominated by the regime. The economy and separatists in the oil-rich south. The country will remain divided over will improve as Mr Assad rebuilds, but The government will intervene in the the competing claims to power of security concerns—including a possible economy to balance the demands of the self-styled Libyan National Army, resurgence of Islamic State as America backed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, a competing interest groups, ignoring general under the Qaddafi regime, and steps to boost productivity. GDP growth retreats—will cap growth. will fall far short of potential. the Government of National Accord, based in the capital, Tripoli, and backed by the UN. In the absence of centralised Zimbabwe authority, local militias will govern on Saudi Arabia the ground. Low oil prices will weaken GDP growth -12.9% exports, the mainstay of the formal GDP growth 1.7% GDP per head $1,576 (PPP: $2,180) economy, but recovering production GDP per head $21,880 (PPP: $57,060) Inflation 166% will help to compensate. -6.3 Inflation 2.0% Budget balance (% GDP) GDP growth 4.7% GDP per head $6,520 (PPP: $20,970) Inflation 4.8% Budget balance (% GDP) 13.2 Population 6.7m

Budget balance (% GDP) -7.3 Population 35.1m

Compensating Libya Crude oil production, m b/d

Oil, Brent $ per barrel

1.5

150

1.0

100

0.5

50

0

0 2011

15

20

Diversifying the economy away from oil, a long-term goal, is progressing, but slowly. Social liberalisation, a hallmark of the crown prince and de facto ruler, Mohammad bin Salman al-Saud, will keep the population onside. The kingdom will assert itself in the region in the face of a cornered and aggressive Iran. Production restraint and low prices will hold back oil’s contribution to economic growth.

Population 14.9m

Emmerson Mnangagwa, successor to the late liberator and tyrant, Robert Mugabe, will struggle to change course. Shortages of work, food and currency will assure resistance from all but his staunchest supporters, while rising prices will keep standards of living depressed. Aid will flow, but international lenders will be reluctant to commit resources when repayment is so uncertain, and the economy will remain in severe recession.


THE WORLD IN 2020

The world in numbers Industries 29 Automotive 29 Defence and aerospace 30 Energy 30 Entertainment 30 Financial services

30 Food and farming 31 Health care 31 Infrastructure 31 IT 31 Media

32 Metals and mining 32 Retail 32 Sport 32 Telecoms 32 Travel and tourism

Ten business trends for 2020 01 America’s Federal Reserve cuts

policy rates as central bankers around the world try to ward off a slowdown.

Federal-funds rate %, end year 2.38

1.38

1.88

1.63

0.63 2016

17

18

19

20

02 In an election year, Donald

Trump’s trade wars spook businesses and consumers. American ad men welcome the confusion: their take rises by 8%.

03 South Asia builds sorely needed infrastructure, with gross fixed investment in Nepal and Bangladesh up by more than 10%. America’s shrinks by 0.5%.

04 Fintech companies are swaddled

in red tape but flourish in some countries. India’s digital payments reach $500bn, though some of its banks struggle with bad debt.

05 Tokyo’s Olympics help makers

of everything from adverts to skateboards. Japan aspires to draw 40m tourists, almost 20% more than in 2019.

06 Oil prices are pulled higher by

political crises and pushed lower by risks to world growth, slipping slightly to average $63 per barrel.

Brent crude Average $ per barrel

40 17

18

medical data should exceed 2,000 exabytes, enabling remote consultations, more personalised treatments and AI-assisted cures.

80 60

2016

08 Digital health gathers speed as

19

20

07 Global electric-car sales near

2.8m, thanks to governments prodding car firms to go green. China’s makers spread their wings abroad.

09 Thousands more stores shut in

America as shoppers spend over $600bn online. Amazon, a web colossus, faces stiffer competition from Walmart.

10 5G phones, allowing film

downloads in moments, make up 10% of smartphone sales, which bounce back after dipping slightly in 2019.

Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit; Boston Consulting Group; Gartner, Group M; IDC; Statista

Business environment

Automotive

World GDP and trade % change on a year earlier GDP, real terms, at PPP

Trade, $ value 6 4

will phase out subsidies for electric vehicles but make carmakers electrify 12% of their sales. Most Western carmakers will fall short and have to buy expensive credits, even as Chinese makers set their sights on international markets. Globally, sales of electric cars will near 2.8m units. That is a mere 3% of total sales: the road ahead is long. Autonomous vehicles will advance, with taxis and commercial fleets leading the way. Germany’s Continental will experiment with driving digitally connected lorries in convoy on highways, while Japan’s Honda and Toyota will aim to get automated cars on Tokyo’s streets before the Olympics. Yet fully self-driving cars are a way off. Making all these new-fangled cars will require expensive retooling of old plants, and partners willing to share costs. Fiat-Chrysler will hope for another chance to merge with Renault, and bidding rumours will surround Tesla. Only a few carmakers will have money left to target new markets, as Malaysia’s Proton will in Pakistan. Others will follow Ford and Nissan in planning closures and redundancies.

Sales of new cars globally have stalled after a decade of forward momentum: in 2 2020 they will rise by just 1% as commercial-vehicle sales slip by 0.3%. Big obsta0 cles include Brexit, diesel’s decline and 2016 17 18 19 20 America’s trade war with China, as well as its threats to hit European and Japanese Monetary stimulus will help keep global carmakers with higher tariffs. Car companies must also deal with tightening GDP growth at around 3.2% in 2020 emissions-regulations. America, an out(in PPP terms), just above the 2019 lier, will freeze emissions targets at 2020 figure. America’s Federal Reserve will levels until 2026, pending a challenge by cut interest rates to take the edge off California and other states. But in January a potential slowdown. China, too, will be in loosening mode. Overshadowing the EU will start imposing stricter caps on the business climate will be America’s carmakers’ average CO2 emissions. greater protectionism. The trade war In the market for green vehicles, won’t ease much, and other countries China will set the pace. Tesla will benefit will be under pressure to pick sides. from a new factory in Shanghai. China In the worst case, tensions between New vehicle registrations America and China could morph into Units, m a global currency war. So long as this 0 10 20 30 is avoided, there could be a silver linto watch: Movable feast.Tech’s impact China ing: trade growth may speed up, as on the motor industry can be seen United States exporters outside China capitalise on in the ebb of carmakers away from Japan its difficulties. Detroit’s annual car show. They have India preferred instead to flaunt their highGermany Brazil tech wares at Las Vegas’s Consumer France Electronics Show, also in January. In Britain 2020 forecasts unless otherwise indicated. World 2020, to win back deserters, Detroit will 2019 Russia totals based on 60 countries accounting for over move its shindig to June. Look who’s in 2020 Canada 95% of world GDP. the driving-seat now. london@eiu.com

Defence and aerospace

Demand for commercial jets will take off in 2020, with deliveries of large aircraft soaring by more than 60% compared with the year before, according to Moody’s, a ratings agency. A main reason is the probable return to the skies of Boeing’s 737 MAX jets, which were grounded in 2019 after two fatal accidents. Operating profit will also improve by more than 10% as both America’s Boeing and its European rival Airbus ramp up production. Fuel-efficient, narrow-body jets will drive demand. Boeing will make an average of 57 narrow-frame 737 planes a month in 2020; Airbus will win more orders for its A220 jets, acquired from Canada’s Bombardier. Despite Sino-American trade tensions, China’s importance to plane­ makers will be undiminished, as it stays on course to become the world’s biggest aviation market. India will also be a keen buyer of jets, amid a tourism boom. Brazil’s aircraft industry will be lifted by Boeing’s takeover of Embraer’s commercial-jet business. Defence contractors outside America will enjoy a 3-5% rise in spending, led by France, Germany, Japan and Britain, predicts Moody’s. America’s defence bill will grow to

29


THE WORLD IN 2020 $738bn: hypersonic weapons (which can fly more than five times the speed of sound) will be a priority, as will Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighters. Escalating geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East will ensure that big spenders in those regions spend even more. Traditional armaments will still attract funding, but governments will focus on covert technologies linked to cyber­security and electronic warfare.

will play a bigger role: AI systems from China’s Huawei will reposition panels to soak up more sun. to watch: Pent-up energy. Much green

energy is squandered: uptake of battery storage has not kept pace with generation. Happily, in America, energystorage deployments will triple in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.

Entertainment to watch: Combining forces. Raytheon and United Technologies will merge in 2020 to form the second-largest defence and aerospace firm, behind Boeing. Raytheon Technologies—whose engineers helped bring the world GPS, microwave ovens and Patriot missiles—will funnel more than $8bn into advanced technologies. Spending on entertainment and media will grow by a robust 5%, to Energy $2.3trn, in 2020, according to PwC, a consultancy, propelled by all things digital. Internet video will outshine pay-TV as more consumers cut the cord. America will lead the onlinevideo industry, with the launch of new streaming services such as Comcast’s NBCUniversal. But China is catching up. Hungry for new content, Chinese Political turbulence will pose the risk of subscribers will spend nearly two hours a day watching internet videos, price spikes in 2020, the biggest being a miscalculation between America and predicts Zenith Media. While traditional telly still rules in India, the likes Iran. Lesser threats will include turbulence in Libya, and Venezuela’s political of Netflix and Amazon Prime Video ructions. Assuming disruptions are mini- will attract more viewers with local content. mised, oil prices will slip to an annual Netflix, the streaming indusaverage of $63 a barrel. Oil demand will try’s pioneer, will lose some wildly almost stand still in America, where popular shows: “Friends” will move new-car sales are falling. Amid trade to WarnerMedia’s HBO Max and “The protectionism, China’s energy needs Office” to NBCUniversal in 2021. In will grow by only about 1%. Smaller emerging markets cannot take up all the an effort to fend off rivals, Netflix will launch a spate of original content, slack, but India’s booming car market will boost oil consumption there by 4%. including the second season of “The Kissing Booth”. Amazon Prime Video Wobbly demand will deter America’s will stream the new “Star Trek” series, shale-drillers from pumping harder. “Picard”. Cinema chains will tempt After another record performance in 2019, American production will drop by punters away from online videos 1%, pushing OPEC rivals to revive some with more IMAX screens and plush recliners. China is poised to become idled capacity. the world’s biggest film market. The By contrast, natural-gas demand and supply will both surge again; gas is global box-office take will rise by 4%: a quarter will come from China alone. greener than grimy coal, demand for Revenue from video games will which will be flat. The need for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will climb by 7%, sped jump by 7%, according to PwC, but growth is slowing. Its future revolves up by the shipping sector, which must around e-sports and celebrity gamers. comply with strict sulphur-emissions rules by 2020. LNG’s biggest market is Japan, whose nuclear authorities are a forecaster’s bane. How much LNG Japan Total box-office revenue, $bn imports will depend on the counter12 North America terrorism defences regulators require China 10 of nuclear plants. Many of the facilities Rest of Asia that were restarted after the Fukushima 8 Western Europe nuclear accident could close again, spur6 ring demand for LNG for power instead. Handouts to support now-cheap 4 solar energy will dwindle; 2020 could Latin America 2 be the year when solar-panel makers Middle East 0 in China, which claim around 70% of & Africa 2015 2020 the global market, must finally survive Source: PwC without subsidies. Artificial intelligence 30

America’s protectionist posturing has pressured ever more countries into signing trade deals with it. The most notable holdout in the face of Donald Trump’s bullying is the EU. A big danger for 2020 is that Mr Trump, emboldened by his tactics’ apparent success elsewhere, ups the ante and sparks an America-EU trade war. America’s trade with Europe is worth nearly $1.3trn (dwarfing its $737bn with China, with which it is locked in tariff-combat). Who would feel the pain most keenly? German carmakers would certainly smart: America is thinking of targeting imports of European cars and parts. It spent €27bn ($32bn) on German automobiles in 2018, buying over 1m vehicles. Still, American consumers and multinationals would also suffer. The chances of a US-EU trade war erupting are roughly one-in-three: worrying odds. Even if America and Europe appear to resolve their differences, experience suggests Mr Trump could well revive his threats, especially as 2020 is an election year. A US-EU stand-off would be particularly dire if the World Trade Organisation’s dispute-settlement mechanism, one of its most important features, expires, as looks increasingly likely.

to watch: New revenue stream. Disney Plus, set to debut in November 2019, is the new home of the Marvel movies and all 30 seasons of “The Simpsons”. In 2020 Disney’s streaming service will add plenty of new content, including “Muppets Now” and a fresh season of “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”, as well as spending $1bn on original content. By contrast, Netflix spent close to $15bn on new content in 2019.

Financial services

For financiers, 2020 will be overshadowed by America’s presidential election in November. At stake is nothing less than the future of banking regulation, trade policy and perhaps even the global monetary system. Until November, central banks will tread warily to ease risks of recession, falling house prices and stockmarket crashes. American interest rates will dip further, while Europe will aim for stimulus. Even so, European banks will cut thousands of jobs to shore up profits. Lobbying against Basel IV will intensify, amid pleas for American-style lenience. Elsewhere bank regulation will tighten: India, the Philippines and Colombia will belatedly adopt Basel III. In China, foreign banks will eagerly raise investment as caps on owning domestic players are lifted. China’s bank lending will rise faster than deposits, narrowing the gap between them. Globally, the opposite will apply: bank lending, at $86trn, will lag deposits of $94trn, raising liquidity for financial institutions. Asia will house nearly half the world’s 1bn households with annual income over $10,000. Almost everywhere, competition will intensify with the rise of online banking. Fintech companies and payment services will extend their reach—digital

payments in India are on course to hit $500bn—but increasingly bump up against regulation. That may scupper Facebook’s planned crypto­currency launch. Insurance, too, will head online, as growth in premiums accelerates thanks to Asian demand. Ageing China will complete the opening of its lifeinsurance market to foreign investors, as premiums grow by 10% a year, according to Swiss Re. to watch: Lion’s shares. Ethiopia intends to launch its first stockmarket, in Addis Ababa, as its prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, tries to liberalise finance (and much else). With elections due in 2020, political instability could be the greatest danger.

Food and farming

Move over, El Niño—Donald Trump is in town. Extreme weather is one of the greatest threats to global food markets, but political tempests are now equally worrisome. America is the biggest agricultural exporter, but this exposes its farmers to the vicissitudes of trade, as well as its benefits. America exports a fifth of its farm products and has been hit by Mr Trump’s tariff war with the top food-consumer, China. This, just as swine-fever is devastating China’s pig herds. That will damage demand for big American feed-crop exports like soyabeans, prices for which will not budge in 2020. Luckily for growers globally, slowburning trends such as climbing incomes and swelling populations will stimulate consumption. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s index of food, feedstuffs and beverage prices will rise by 5% in 2020. Grain prices will also climb by 5% as rice and maize markets tighten. The price of sugar, which suf-


THE WORLD IN 2020 fered double-digit drops in mid-2019, will recover by 3%, with higher ethanol prices encouraging use of sugarcane for fuelmaking. Beverage prices will fizz up by 9% as mounds of coffee beans are depleted. In the developed world, consumers are getting more health-conscious, inconveniencing everyone from café owners to big food-manufacturers. One commodity in the line of fire is chocolate, which is suffering as the spread of internet shopping discourages spur-ofthe-moment spending on indulgences at the supermarket. At least the claimed healthiness of dark chocolate will sustain cocoa cravings. Asians consume far less chocolate than Westerners, providing ample room for growth in appetites and waistlines there. But overall cocoa consumption will expand by just 2% globally in the 2019-20 crop year. to watch: Pot of gold. America is at the

heart of the surging cannabis business. More than 30 states have now legalised marijuana for medical or recreational use. More, such as Florida, could follow in 2020. Legal sales of the drug could reach $20bn in 2020.

Health care

South Korea and Japan the challenge will be ageing populations: 28% of Japanese will be 65 or over. China sees a similar trend and will axe its controls on family size completely. Medical breakthroughs in 2020 could include the first gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Digital apps like Tencent’s WeDoctor will bring advances of their own. Globally, health data will top 2,000 exabytes, enabling remote consultations, faster diagnosis and personalised treatment Worldwide pharmaceutical sales will rise by 5% to $1.4trn, a touch slower than overall health-spending growth. In the United States, high prices for medicines, and the right to buy cheaper Canadian drugs, will be contentious. The price gap will widen in 2020 as Canada sets up a national pharmacare system. to watch: Embryo editing. In spring 2020 the International Commission on the Clinical Use of Human Germline Genome Editing releases a final report on the ethics of “editing” embryos. A global moratorium is possible. The report was spurred by a controversial CRISPR experiment in China in 2018, which Russia wants to copy.

Infrastructure

Google’s empire is attracting scrutiny as never before. Since 2017 the EU has fined it around $9bn for anti-competitive behaviour. The mood music back home is ominous, too. American states have joined a fad for investigating Google on competition grounds, much as they once lent their heft to (failed) efforts to break up Microsoft. The Justice Department is also eyeing Big Tech, particularly Google. Are American authorities about to take actions that might eventually lead to a Google break-up? Data-privacy activists would celebrate. Even investors might welcome the news. The synergies yielded by Google’s search, advertising and other gems make it a target for regulators. Simpler investments can be more attractive: some analysts think Google’s parent company, Alphabet, could be worth up to 50% more after a break-up. Unlike those in Europe, however, American regulators must pursue their quarry through the courts, where efforts to dismember Microsoft foundered. Google’s lawyers will argue that it provides consumers with oodles of services for free. Instead of a break-up, politicians and regulators might instead call for stricter regulation, and shutting Google out of sensitive realms like finance.

much-delayed Crossrail train-line linking London with its commuter belt, opening fully in 2020. Despite big talk from Donald Trump, America’s infrastructure spending will be hit by political discord and shrink by 0.5%. to watch: Magic in a magical land. Sub-Saharan Africa will be the secondzippiest-growing region for infrastructure investment. Leading the way is Mozambique. Chinese cash will play a big part. Another spur is the need to rebuild after cyclones Idai and Kenneth wrought havoc in early 2019.

IT Ten years ago, China promised its citizens universal health care by 2020. More than 95% now have health insurance, but standards are patchy. Chinese health spending will reach $550 per head, or 5% of GDP, in 2020, with room to grow: globally, spending stands at $1,530 per head, or 10% of GDP. The biggest spender, America, will fork out 17% of GDP on health; Democrats will push for national health insurance in an election year. Elsewhere, access to health care will keep improving. In 2020 Pakistan promises health insurance for all districts; India will have 40,000 health and wellness centres under its new national scheme. Africa will be declared polio-free, if Nigeria again reports no new cases. In Europe, Health-care spending 2020, % of GDP United States Germany France Japan

0

Per person, $ 5

10

15

20

11,190 5,940 5,070

Britain

4,590 5,170 4,250

Italy

3,220

Canada

Russia China India

650 550 110

Infrastructure’s biggest boom in 2020 will be in South Asia. Gross fixed investment, a proxy of sorts for infrastructure spending, will jump by 14% in Nepal and 11% in Bangladesh in real terms; in India, it will grow by 8% to surpass $1trn. New roads and power lines are sorely needed if India is to improve its business appeal. Yet it will lag far behind its great rival, China, easily the most construction-crazed country. China will contribute $6trn of the world’s $22.4trn of gross fixed investment in 2020, although growth will be well below that in its heyday. China’s impact on infrastructure may be felt most keenly abroad, via its “Belt and Road” building spree. It will speed work in countries far (see To watch) and near, for example in SouthEast Asia. Consider Indonesia, where the president, Joko Widodo, wants to improve linkages across the archipelago’s 13,000 islands. Controversy often clings to China’s investments, but given his government’s ambitious plans—work on a new capital, on Borneo, will start in 2020—“Jokowi” will take China’s money. While emerging-world investment in infrastructure expands by 5%, rich countries will manage only 1%. Britain will try to galvanise infrastructure spending after Brexit. Few, however, would bet on its biggest project, the

for software-as-a-service. Microsoft and Google will strive to displace the king of the cloud, Amazon Web Services, but AWS will reign supreme, perhaps earning $40bn-50bn in 2020. In more penny-pinching times, programs to help companies manage their finances and workforces will be among those generating double-digit growth. Software will expand by 6%, twice as fast as lumbering hardware. Scepticism will haunt blockchain and artificial intelligence. Technology that opens up virtual-reality experiences will compete with augmentedreality gizmos (think Google Glass). Gradually, the lines between them will blur, until users can switch between imaginary realms and embellished ­versions of the real world.

Media In 2020 tech types could find themselves longing for the glory days: 2018 saw a high-water mark for many firms’ tech budgets, warns Forrester, a research company. Growth in IT spending will slip below 4% in 2020 after two years of gains of around 5%; economic slowdowns in America and China, pivotal for the tech market, are the cause. Nevertheless, America’s spending will be biggest and fastest, climbing by a still-strong 6%. That will be roughly matched by China and India. The two mighty emerging markets will account for just one in ten dollars spent on tech, however, compared with four in America—putting recent talk about China’s threat to America’s tech supremacy in perspective. Black spots for spending growth will include Brexit-hit Britain, and Latin America. IT firms will hope to profit from companies’ appetite for efficiency, which ought to spur investments in back-office systems. A further tech driver will be the cloud, spending on which will grow by 16%, according to Gartner, another research outfit. Support will also come from demand

After taking a slight hit in 2019, ad spending will increase by 5% in 2020, forecasts Magna Global, a consultancy. Digital will jump by 11% to $338bn, making up more than half of total ad sales as smart homes, internet video and cloud storage gain ground. Mobile makes up the bulk of digital ads and is growing faster than desktop-based ad revenue. Display advertising on mobile phones will rise to $126bn, forecasts PwC, with the onus on ads within apps rather than in browsers. The Tokyo Summer Olympics and cricket’s T20 World Cup will prompt plenty more. Elections in America, the world’s biggest ad market, will propel spending by 8% there, says GroupM, a media company, helping it outpace China (6%). Meanwhile Brazil will challenge Germany as the world’s fifth-largest ad market, as Google, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram become more popular. At 13%, India will post one of the

31


THE WORLD IN 2020 strongest increases. Advertising will whet Indian consumers’ appetite for cars, online shopping and chemicalfree beauty products. Newspapers will attract just 7% of global ad spending in 2020, says Zenith Media. Magazines, radio and outdoor advertising will draw 16%. At 31%, television will fare rather better, but its share is shrinking rapidly amid the rising threat from ad-free streaming options like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video. Cinema is the main bright spot in non-mobile, as snazzy screens and popular franchises draw big audiences.

Metals and mining

Metal-makers will rue their exuberance in the good years as a self-inflicted supply glut depresses prices. An even bigger worry for 2020 is that America’s trade war with China forces manufacturing and construction companies to reduce demand. Consumption of some metals, like steel, will shrink owing to a generally slowing global economy. American steelmakers will wonder when the touted infrastructure-spending programme will begin. Nonetheless, prices for base metals will advance by 4% in 2020 as producers run down stocks. Aluminium prices will jump by 9%. Supply-wise, China’s aluminium overcapacity—in 2020 its producers will make 39m tonnes of the 68m produced globally—will dull enthusiasm for plant-building elsewhere. When it comes to copper, China gobbles up half of what’s consumed each year. Urbanisation there, as well as renewable-energy targets, will buoy copper consumption. Globally, the metal will be in high demand for electric-vehicle batteries, and prices will rise by 7%. Strikes at South American and Indonesian mines may cut output at times, despite the advent of new facilities like Peru’s Toromocho mine. Like copper, tin has high-tech uses—for electronics, robotics and in renewables. Consumption will hit a ten-year high of 365,000 tonnes, spurring producers to open new mines.

Retail

Rising political uncertainty and changing consumer tastes will put the brakes on retail-sales growth globally, which will dwindle to 2% in 2020. Bricks-and-

32

Retail sales % change on a year earlier 2019 0

2

2020

4

6 Vietnam China

Indonesia Malaysia India Philippines United States Russia Britain

mortar retailers will struggle in the face of relentless competition from the likes of Amazon. The situation is particularly dire in America, where more than 12,000 stores faced extinction in 2019: that could rise in 2020 as the economy slows. Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese-made goods will make matters worse. Although overall consumer prices will rise by less than 2%, some products could see much larger jumps. Walmart, the world’s biggest retailer, will reap the benefits of a vigorous online push to stave off Amazon; Walmart’s online business is thriving, and it projects sales in America to rise by nearly 3%. But Amazon will challenge Walmart’s lead in the grocery market and could launch a new brand of grocery stores in 2020, if not before. For growth, Walmart will look overseas to markets like India, where it aims to open about 30 stores by 2020. India’s retail sales are forecast to rise by 4% in 2020, partly driven by foreign brands. As online shopping increases, e-commerce revenue there will jump to $120bn. The picture is brighter in China, though the trade war with America will dent sales a little. Overall, retail sales will rise by 3% in Asia, 2% in North America and 0.5% in western Europe. Consumer-led expansions in some African countries will push up purchases by a zippier 4%.

Sport

The year will be one of headlinegrabbing quadrennial sports events. Tokyo’s Olympics and Paralympics have already attracted a record $3bn in Japanese sponsorship. This will contribute to the €198bn ($221bn) that will be earned from professional sports events globally in 2020 through the sale of media rights, sponsorship, tickets and merchandise. Add in amateur sports and the global sports industry could be worth $550bn. Under the motto “Discover Tomorrow”, Japan is putting technology in the spotlight at the Olympics: self-driving cars, robot workers and

hydrogen vehicles will all feature prominently. Congestion-reduction measures during the games will spur a mass experiment in teleworking by Tokyo-dwellers. Technology’s expanding role will fuel controversies. One big question at the UEFA European Football Championship will centre on Portugal: can it retain its crown? Another: the success, or otherwise, of harnessing video-assistant-referee technology to verify goals at the tournament. In the social-media age, the battle for media rights will be more heated than ever: sports-media rights will be worth $22bn in North America alone. Live-streaming will be increasingly important. Sports gambling, though bedevilled by legal debates in America, will boom. It will grow by around 9% annually, according to Technavio, a research company. Professional-sports market Media and events, $bn, 2020

will comprise 10% of total sales. The picture for dealmaking will be brighter in 2020, thanks to lower regulatory hurdles in some markets. Operators will join forces with phonemakers to make augmented reality, AI and holographic displays in smartphones the order of the day. And they will ally with tech players to create the telecoms infrastructure to support drones and flying taxis. to watch: Premium play. Reliance Jio has already disrupted the mobile industry with ultra-cheap packages. Next, the Mumbai-based firm will try to change the way Indians watch films. From mid-2020, Jio Fiber will let premium subscribers watch films at home the day they are released. The operator will also turn on its Internetof-Things platform, aiming to draw in 1bn homes.

Travel and tourism

Total $220.5bn

Football 106.8

Summer* 58.8

Other sports 43.3

Winter* 11.6

Source: Wanda Sports Group

*Includes Olympics

Telecoms

As the internet’s reach lengthens and smartphones get cheaper, mobile and data subscriptions will gain in popularity. But with demand for voice-related services lagging, telecoms firms will need to find new sources of revenue. Rather than focusing on adding subscribers, many will try to lure existing clients with add-on services. Innovation will focus on mobile education, healthmonitoring apps and payment systems. While 5G networks attract investment, incumbents will also look to online streaming for growth; AT&T will launch HBO Max in 2020. Apple, Huawei and Samsung will still be the leading names in smartphones. China’s Huawei will challenge Samsung for the top spot, despite travails in America. With fewer users upgrading their fancy smartphones, growth will be strongest where fewer consumers have them and cheap phones sell well: India, Indonesia and Brazil. Helped by low-end models, smartphone sales will bounce back after a slight dip in 2019. Gartner estimates that new 5G-enabled phones

The airline industry has pledged to stabilise net carbon emissions in 2020—ambitious, given that passenger volumes are set to expand by 5% and freight traffic by 4%, says the International Air Transport Association (IATA). A global trade war (otherwise unwelcome) could reduce emissions by cutting cargo shipments and deterring over 3% of passengers, says IATA. Ever-optimistic, the travel and tourism industry still banks on growth. International departures will climb by 4% to 1.3bn as receipts soar by 6% to $1.4trn. The most popular destination will be France, the biggest earner Spain. Japan, the Olympic host, hopes to draw 40m visitors, up by 9m from 2019, while Chile and Argentina will lure eclipse-watchers. Profits for airlines will not come easily. Amid intense competition from low-cost carriers, fares will grow by just 1.5%. They could dip lower if Boeing’s 737 MAX—grounded since March 2019 after two fatal crashes— returns to the skies, expanding airline capacity sharply. Airlines and airports will struggle with strikes, rising environmental costs and chaotic air-traffic control. Hotel prices will rise by just 1% as rivalry in online bookings and rentals intensifies. Airbnb, Booking.com, Expedia and Ctrip will dominate, while conventional tourism agencies flail. Marriott International will phase out plastic shampoo bottles by December 2020. In May, the Viking Sun will complete the longest-ever passenger cruise—at eight months, not for the faint of stomach. l


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CRESCIMENTO ECONÓMICO MUNDIAL - OCDE

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C O R O N AV I R U S E S C A L AT I O N C O U L D C U T G L O B A L ECONOMIC GROWTH IN HALF – OECD

VÁ R I O S PA Í S E S E M R I S C O D E R E C E S S ÃO À M E D I DA Q U E O C O V I D -1 9 S E VA I E S PA L H A N D O PELO MUNDO. S E V E R A L C O U N T R I E S AT R I S K O F R E C E S S I O N A S C O V I D -1 9 S P R E A D S A R O U N D T H E WORLD.

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NEWS

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ma escalada do surto de coronavírus pode reduzir para metade o crescimento económico mundial e provocar uma recessão em vários países, alertou a Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Económico (OCDE). O alarme dispara à medida que a doença alastra pelo mundo e confunde investidores, com a OCDE a afirmar que o crescimento do PIB mundial pode cair este ano cerca de 1,5%, quase metade da taxa de 2,9% que esta organização previra antes do surto. A crise pode ser a “ameaça mais grave” para a economia mundial desde a crise financeira que ocorreu há mais de uma década, alertou. Num cenário de crescimento já de si fraco do PIB , as economias do Japão e da zona do euro podem entrar em recessão este ano, acrescentou, alertando ao mesmo tempo para o facto de que o fracasso nas negociações comerciais do Reino Unido pós Brexit com a UE podem também representar um risco negativo significativo. A influente organização com sede em Paris – que representa as 36 economias mais avançadas do mundo – apelou aos governos de todos o mundo para que tomem medidas significativas e trabalhem em conjunto, pedindo uma resposta internacional relativamente à propagação do Covid-19. Numa avaliação igualmente negativa, Roberto Azevêdo, director da Organização Mundial do Comércio, conta que a epidemia tenha um impacto substancial na economia mundial. “Os efeitos sobre a economia global provavelmente também serão substanciais e começarão a refletir-se nos dados do comércio nas próximas semanas”, afirmou. O porta-voz da UE para a economia, Paolo Gentiloni, referiu que o forte impacto do vírus nas actividades comerciais obrigaria a UE e os países europeus a aumentarem a despesa. “A ideia de uma recuperação em V, a regressar rapidamente ao crescimento, não pode ser tida como garantida e pode revelar-se optimista”, afirmou. E salientou que as regras da UE permitem aos países responder individualmente à crise e que estes devem agir rapidamente para manterem a confiança. Segundo a OCDE, o cenário base é o de uma crise de curta duração, mas grave, cujos danos se centrarão sobretudo na China. Esta organização prevê que o crescimento mundial venha a cair para 2,4% em 2020, abaixo dos 2,9%, já de si fracos, registados no ano passado. De acordo com a suas principais previsões, a OCDE disse que o crescimento mundial pode encolher no primeiro trimestre. Espera-se que o crescimento chinês caia abaixo dos 5% este ano, face a 6,1% no ano passado - que já era a taxa de crescimento mais fraca da segunda maior economia do mundo em quase 30 anos. No entanto, o surto também pode causar um “cenário de dominó”, com o crescimento mundial a ser gravemente afectado em 2020 à medida que o vírus se for espalhando pelas economias avançadas do hemisfério norte. Para além da queda do crescimento de 1,4% ao longo do ano para cerca de 1,5%, nesse cenário, os mercados financeiros em todo o mundo

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n escalation in the coronavirus outbreak could cut global economic growth in half and plunge several countries into recession this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has warned. Sounding the alarm as the disease spreads around the world and rattles investors, the OECD said global GDP growth could plummet this year to as little as 1.5%, almost half the 2.9% rate it forecast before the outbreak took hold. The downturn could be the “gravest threat” to the global economy since the financial crisis more than a decade ago, it warned. Against a backdrop of already weak GDP growth, the economies of Japan and the eurozone could slide into recession this year, it added, while warning that failure in the UK’s post-Brexit trade talks with the EU also represented a significant downside risk. The influential Paris-based group – which represents the world’s 36 most advanced economies – urged governments around the world to take greater steps to work together, calling for an international response as Covid-19 spreads. In an equally downbeat assessment, Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the World Trade Organization, said he expected the epidemic to have a substantial impact on the global economy. “The effects on the global economy are also likely to be substantial and will start to show up in the trade data in the weeks to come,” he said. The EU economy spokesman, Paolo Gentiloni, said the heavy impact of the virus on business activity would force the EU and European countries to increase spending. “The idea of a V-shaped recovery, returning quickly to growth, can’t be taken for granted and could prove optimistic,” he said. He emphasised that EU rules allowed individual countries to respond to the crisis and they should act quickly to maintain confidence. The OECD said its base-case scenario was for a shortlived but severe downturn, with the focal point for the economic damage in China. It forecast global growth would slide to 2.4% for 2020 as a whole, down from an already weak 2.9% last year. Even under its central forecast, the OECD said global growth could shrink in the first quarter. Chinese growth is expected to fall below 5% this year, down from 6.1% last year – which was already the weakest growth rate in the world’s second largest economy in almost 30 years. However, the outbreak could also cause a “domino scenario” whereby global growth is severely damaged in 2020 by the virus spreading throughout advanced economies across the northern hemisphere. Alongside growth slowing by about 1.4% over the course of the year to as little as 1.5%, financial markets around the world 35


ACTUALIDADE

O G OVE RN O D E VE E STA R P RO N TO PA R A IN T E RVIR CO M U M E ST ÍM U LO F IS CA L , S E N E CE S S Á RIO, E T R A BA L H A R IN T E RN ACIO N A L M E N T E N O S E N T ID O D E CO O RD E N A R IN T E RVE N ÇÕ E S E CO N Ó MI C AS.

T H E G OVE RN M E N T S H O U L D BE RE A DY TO IN T E RVE N E WIT H A F IS CA L ST IM U LU S I F N E CE S S A RY, A N D WO RK IN T E RN AT IO NALLY TO COORDINATE ECONOMIC INTERVENTIONS. também entrariam em colapso em cerca de 20%. A OCDE pediu aos líderes mundiais para agirem rapidamente e solicitou maior apoio aos sistemas de saúde e aos seus trabalhadores e às nações para que protejam os rendimentos dos seus grupos sociais e empresas mais vulneráveis. Laurence Boone, economista-chefe da OCDE, alertou que os bancos centrais seriam incapazes de proteger as economias do coronavírus por conta própria. “Não acreditamos que seja uma crise que possa ser gerida apenas pelos bancos centrais”, disse a mesma responsável. Os seus comentários seguiram-se a uma declaração do Banco da Inglaterra segundo a qual “garantiria a adopção de todas as medidas necessárias para proteger a estabilidade financeira e monetária”. Numa repreensão a Washington e Pequim, Boone disse que os EUA e a China deveriam pôr fim à guerra comercial, durante a qual as tarifas de importação aumentaram em centenas de milhar de milhões de dólares o valor das mercadorias. Boone afirmou que é necessária cooperação mundial para lidar com a crise e que Washington e Pequim dariam sinais de postura mais cooperativa se abdicassem das tarifas impostas nos últimos dois anos. John McDonnell, chanceler sombra do Partido Trabalhista, disse que o governo do Reino Unido tem de indicar que esforços desenvolverá se a situação se deteriorar. “O governo deve estar pronto para intervir com um estímulo fiscal, se necessário, e trabalhar internacionalmente no sentido de coordenar intervenções económicas”, afirmou. “O relatório da OCDE deixa claro que os governos têm de ser claros e coordenados para responderem à ameaça do coronavírus, numa altura em que denota uma ausência de liderança por parte do chanceler e do primeiro ministro”. Desde o início do surto, em Janeiro, cerca de 85.000 pessoas foram infectadas em todo o mundo, com uma percentagem cada vez maior fora da China. A Itália foi a mais atingida até agora na Europa, estando a viver um período delicado, com o retrocesso da terceira maior economia da zona euro. As bolsas de valores em todo o mundo caíram mais de 10% na última semana de Fevereiro, a pior semana desde a crise financeira mundial. l

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would also crash by about 20% under this scenario. Saying that world leaders needed to act swiftly, the OECD called for greater support for healthcare systems and workers, and for nations to protect the incomes of their most vulnerable social groups and businesses. Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist, has warned that central banks would be unable to protect economies from the coronavirus on their own. “We do not think this is a shock that can be managed by central banks alone,” she said. Her comments followed a statement from the Bank of England that it would “ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability”. In a rebuke to Washington and Beijing, Boone said the US and China should end their trade war, during which import tariffs have increased on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods. Boone said global cooperation was needed to cope with the crisis and Washington and Beijing would signal a return to a more cooperative stance if they dispensed with tariffs imposed over the last two years. John McDonnell, Labour’s shadow chancellor, said the UK government needed to signal what efforts it would make if the situation deteriorated. “The government should be ready to intervene with a fiscal stimulus if necessary, and work internationally to coordinate economic interventions,” he said. “The OECD report makes clear that governments need to be clear-sighted and coordinated in responding to the threat of coronavirus, and at the moment that leadership is sorely lacking from the chancellor and prime minister.” Since the outbreak in January, close to 85,000 people have been infected worldwide, with a fast-rising share of these outside China. Italy has been hardest hit so far in Europe at a delicate moment for the nation, with the eurozone’s third largest economy already shrinking. Stock markets around the world tumbled by more than 10% in the last week of February, in the worst week since the global financial crisis. l


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FALA QUEM SABE

LUÍS BARRETO XAVIER, CO N S U LTO R A B R E U A DV O G A D O S OF COUNSEL ABREU ADVOGADOS

2020-2030: A DÉCADA DA REGULAÇÃO? 2 0 2 0 -2 0 3 0 : T H E D E C A D E O F R E G U L AT I O N ? A omnipresença da tecnologia Em 2020, a consciência da transformação digital da economia e da sociedade está no centro da atenção das empresas, dos decisores públicos e das famílias. Não é novidade a ascensão das ‘Big Tech’, os gigantes tecnológicos que se tornaram as empresas mais valiosas do mundo, de acordo com a sua capitalização bolsista. A Amazon, a Google, o Facebook, a Microsoft, a Apple, para não falar das chinesas Alibaba ou Tencent, ou ainda a Uber e a Tesla, a Netflix e o Spotify, são hoje parte importante da economia mundial e estão incrustadas como lapas no nosso novo quotidiano. À revolução digital estão associados vários fatores de ordem técnica, que a permitem e potenciam: o aumento da capacidade computacional e a disseminação dos serviços de ‘cloud computing’; o enorme volume de dados disponíveis; em articulação com os aspetos anteriores, o desenvolvimento da inteligência artificial, a área de conhecimento com mais impacto na transformação digital, especialmente através da aprendizagem automática (‘machine learning’), do ‘deep learning’ e das redes neuronais. No plano económico, as transformações tecnológicas vieram possibilitar novos modelos de negócio, com disrupção em vários mercados – dos serviços financeiros à mobilidade, dos ‘media’ ao entretenimento ou à saúde, e novas experiências de consumo. Na sua base estão a recolha, o tratamento, a comercialização e o uso customizado de um enorme volume de dados (‘big data’). Para a sociedade, é brutal o impacto das transformações tecnológicas. Vai-se alterando mais ou menos radicalmente o modo como produzimos bens e serviços (designadamente pela automação e robotização), como contratamos (com menos intermediação), ou consumimos (com experiências mais personalizadas). O perfil do trabalho humano altera-se, desaparecendo as tarefas mais rotineiras. No plano geopolítico, sobressai a concorrência entre Estados Unidos e China pela supremacia tecnológica, à qual não é alheia a guerra comercial em curso. Nenhum dos gigantes tecnológicos tem sede na Europa. 38

The ubiquity of technology In 2020, awareness of the digital transformation of the economy and society is in the minds of companies, public decision-makers and households. The rise of Big Tech, the technological giants that have become the most valuable companies in the world, according to their market capitalization, is not new. Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, not to mention the Chinese Alibaba or Tencent, or even Uber and Tesla, Netflix and Spotify, are today an important part of the world economy and are embedded like limpets in our new daily life. Several factors of technical nature are associated with the digital revolution, both enabling and enhancing it: the increase in computing capacity and the spread of cloud computing services; the huge volume of data available; in conjunction with the previous aspects, the development of artificial intelligence, the area of knowledge with the greatest impact on digital transformation, especially through automatic learning (machine learning), deep learning and neural networks. At the economic level, technological transformations have enabled new business models, with disruption in several markets - from financial services to mobility, from media to entertainment or healthcare, and new consumer experiences. At the core lies the collection, processing, marketing and customized use of a huge volume of data (big data). For society, the impact of technological changes is brutal. The way we produce goods and services is changing more or less radically (particularly through automation and robotisation), how we hire (with less intermediation), or consume (with more personalised experiences). The profile of human work is changing and more routine tasks are disappearing. At the geopolitical level, competition between the United States and China increases as both states strive to ensure technological supremacy, which is not unrelated to the ongoing trade war. None of the technological giants are based in Europe. (Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


HE WHO KNOWS, SPEAKS Potencial e riscos Esta revolução industrial 4.0 traz consigo um grande potencial para aumentar a qualidade de vida das pessoas e a produtividade das empresas. Tudo indica que o processo de digitalização continue a acelerar, com o impulso adicional de novos desenvolvimentos como o 5G, o ‘quantum computing’, ou a disseminação da IoT (internet das coisas). No caderno de encargos dos desenvolvimentos científicos e tecnológicos são colocados hoje problemas como o das alterações climáticas e do excesso de produção de carbono. Mas este processo encerra também uma bateria de riscos que não podemos perder de vista. A privacidade individual é ameaçada ou destruída pela recolha e monetização dos nossos dados, bem como pelas tecnologias de reconhecimento facial, vocal e de emoções. Os estados totalitários, de inspiração orwelliana, fortalecem-se pela vigilância e pela engenharia social, bem como pela digitalização da guerra. As democracias liberais são testadas pela manipulação das ‘fake news’ nas redes sociais e pelas quebras da cibersegurança. O fortalecimento das ‘Big Tech’ representa a detenção por entidades não legitimadas democraticamente de um importante poder sobre a vida de todos, num espaço globalizado. O desigual desenvolvimento tecnológico permite ou acelera o aumento das disparidades entre pessoas, empresas e países. A automação de decisões resultantes de algoritmos de ‘machine learning’ aplicados na concessão de crédito, na oferta de seguros, no recrutamento de trabalhadores ou de estudantes acarreta um défice de transparência e um risco de enviesamento (‘bias’). Com a desnecessidade de realização humana das tarefas menos criativas, a robotização leva à perda de postos de trabalho, provavelmente compensada apenas de forma parcial pelo surgimento de novas profissões. Em qualquer caso, pode emergir uma “geração perdida”, sem capacidade para se reinventar profissionalmente no novo paradigma tecnológico.

Potential and risks This industrial revolution 4.0 brings with it great potential to increase the quality of life of people and the productivity of companies. Everything points to the fact that the digitisation process will continue to accelerate, with the additional impetus of new developments such as 5G, quantum computing, or the spread of IoT (internet of things). Today, the specifications of scientific and technological developments pose problems such as climate change and excess carbon production. But this process also contains a number of risks that we cannot lose sight of. Individual privacy is threatened or destroyed by the collection and monetisation of our data, as well as facial, vocal and emotion recognition technologies. Totalitarian states, of Orwellian inspiration, are strengthened by surveillance and social engineering, as well as by the digitisation of war. Liberal democracies are put to the test by the manipulation of fake news on social media and by cybersecurity breaches. The strengthening of Big Tech represents the holding by entities not democratically legitimized of an important power over the lives of all, in a globalized space. The uneven technological development allows or accelerates the widening disparities between people, companies and countries. The automation of decisions resulting from machine learning algorithms applied in granting credit, offering insurance, recruiting workers or students entails a lack of transparency and a risk of bias. With the unnecessary human intervention to accomplish less creative tasks robotisation will lead to job losses, offset probably only and partially by the emergence of new professions. In any case, a “lost generation” can emerge, with no capacity to reinvent itself professionally in the new technological paradigm.

Regulação No contexto sumariamente descrito, a questão fundamental da próxima década será a seguinte: poderá a regulação potenciar os benefícios e limitar os danos causados pela revolução tecnológica? Há um argumento contrário e muitos obstáculos à eficácia da regulação. Contra a regulação pode invocar-se a necessidade de incentivar a inovação, que uma regulação necessariamente limitadora poderia tolher. No sentido de que os esforços de regulação seriam inglórios, pode invocar-se que é irrealista pensar em regulação à escala global, a única que teria um espectro suficiente; que o legislador dificilmente conseguirá acompanhar a evolução tecnológica, estando condenado a elaborar regras rapidamente tornadas obsoletas; que só será eficaz uma regulação setorial e adaptada a cada tecnologia específica, e, por esse motivo, impossível de conseguir; que o braço de ferro entre reguladores e ‘Big Tech’ dificilmente será ganho pelos primeiros; que o ‘enforcement’ será muito desigual. Pode a regulação ultrapassar estes obstáculos? Esta questão – neste momento sem resposta – é, na minha perspetiva, a mais importante da próxima década. l

Regulation In the context briefly described, the fundamental issue of the next decade will be the following: can regulation enhance the benefits and limit the damages caused by the technological revolution? There is an opposite argument and many obstacles to effectiveness of regulation. Against regulation we may invoke the need to encourage innovation, which a necessarily limiting regulation could hinder. Given that that regulatory efforts could be inglorious, it can be argued that it’s unrealistic to think about regulation on a global scale, the only that would have a wide enough spectrum; whereas the legislator is unlikely to be able to keep up with technological developments, being condemned to develop rules that will quickly become obsolete; that only sectoral regulation adapted to each specific technology will be effective and, for that reason, impossible to achieve; that the fight between regulators and Big Tech is unlikely to be won by the former; that enforcement will be very uneven. Can regulation overcome these obstacles? This question - currently unanswered - is, in my view, the most important issue of the next decade. l 39


FALA QUEM SABE

FERNANDO RESINA DA SILVA, PARTNER VdA – VIEIRA DE ALMEIDA

A INEVITABILIDADE DA TRANSFORMAÇÃO DIGITAL T H E C E RTA I N T Y O F D I G I TA L T R A N S F O R M AT I O N

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ohn Chambers, ex-Presidente e CEO da Cisco, onde esteve mais de 20 anos, disse, ainda há não muito tempo, que “pelo menos 40% das empresas morrerão nos próximos 10 anos… se não conseguirem perceber como transformar toda a empresa para acomodar as novas tecnologias”. Por outro lado, li há poucos dias a seguinte anedota deliciosa: “Dois homens estavam a analisar o ‘ouput’ do fantástico novo computador do seu departamento. Após mais de uma hora de análise da informação dada pelo computador um deles diz: “Já notaste que seriam necessários 400 homens e pelo menos 250 anos, para fazer um erro tão grande?” Esta citação e esta anedota ilustram bem onde se encontram grande parte dos decisores das nossas empresas no início da 4º Revolução Industrial. Se por um lado existe uma unanimidade quanto à necessidade das empresas se modernizarem, adotando as novas tecnologias, não só na criação e produção dos seus produtos e serviços, mas transversalmente em toda a sua atividade com o fim de se manterem competitivas, já a decisão quanto ao caminho a seguir e como utilizar, em cada caso concreto, as novas tecnologias, é mais complicado. O potencial do manancial de tecnologias emergentes já ao nosso dispor, como a inteligência artificial, o ‘machine learning’, a robótica, a realidade aumentada, a internet das coisas, os drones, o ‘big data’, a ‘blockchain’, etc, é tudo menos claro para os empresários. Muitas vezes até a utilização de soluções tecnológicas que não são já assim tão novas, como a ‘internet’ e o ‘cloud computing’ - que afinal constituem o núcleo de tecnologias que, pela elevada capacidade de comunicação e de tratamento de informação estão na base da 4ª revolução 40

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ohn Chambers, former President and CEO of Cisco, where he worked for more than 20 years, said not too long ago, that “at least 40% of companies will die in the next 10 years… if they fail to understand how to transform the entire company in order to accommodate new technologies”. While on the subject I read the following fantastic anecdote a few days ago: “Two men were analysing the output of their department’s fantastic new computer. After more than an hour analysing the information provided by the said computer, one of them said: “Have you noticed that it would take 400 men and at least 250 years to make such a big mistake?” This quote and anecdote shows clearly where most of the decision makers of our companies stand at the beginning of the 4th Industrial Revolution. If, on the one hand, there is unanimity as to the need for companies to modernize, adopting new technologies, not only in the creation and production of their products and services, but across the whole of their activity in order to remain competitive, decisions regarding the way forward and how to use new technologies in each specific case are more complicated. The potential of the huge number of emerging technologies already available, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, augmented reality, the internet of things, drones, big data, blockchain, etc., is anything but clear to entrepreneurs. But quite often the use of technological solutions that are not that new, such as ‘internet’ and ‘ cloud computing’ - which, after all, form the core of technologies that, due to the high capacity for communication and (Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


HE WHO KNOWS, SPEAKS industrial -, não são óbvias para os empresários. O problema é que, permitindo a tecnologia uma mudança tão radical em toda a empresa, é difícil para um decisor determinar qual o caminho a seguir. O que vemos atualmente são empresas que, pontualmente, adotam novas tecnologias, sem uma estratégia de fundo, e com isto dizem que estão já em “processo de transformação digital”. Desenganem-se! Transformação digital é muito mais do que a adoção oportunística de uma ou outra tecnologia mais ‘sexy’. Caso assim não o entendam ficarão como na anedota que acima contei (sem resultados úteis e depois de terem “despendido” uma quantia considerável de dinheiro…). Transformação digital, nas palavras da IDC, é o processo pelo qual as empresas se adaptam ou criam mudanças disruptivas, nos seus clientes e nos seus mercados, utilizando as tecnologias da era digital, transformando os seus modelos de negócio, melhorando a sua eficiência operacional e desempenho organizacional, com produtos e serviços inovadores que combinam o físico e o digital. É, assim, uma transformação tão profunda que afeta os próprios modelos de negócio. Por ser tão amplo e invasivo é um processo que não pode ser deixado, apenas, nas mãos do IT da empresa. É fundamental envolver todas as componentes, desde os recursos humanos até ao marketing e vendas, passando pelo planeamento e produção, e não esquecendo o ‘compliance’ e a gestão de risco. A tecnologia impacta todas estas vertentes. O problema está em “o que fazer” e “como o fazer”. É sem dúvida um desafio para os decisores elaborar uma estratégia vencedora, neste mundo novo em que as capacidades da tecnologia são inúmeras e todos os dias somos bombardeados com novas propostas tecnológicas. Daí que o recurso a consultores especializados e a parcerias tecnológicas seja tão importante. Ninguém melhor do que o empresário conhece a sua atividade, os seus produtos e o seu mercado, mas quando falamos da transformação tecnológica é bom rodearmo-nos de quem tem competências específicas, num espírito de colaboração. É que, nesta nova era, a relação entre a empresa e o seu fornecedor, neste caso de tecnologia, tem de ser mais do que uma mera relação cliente/ vendedor. Deve existir um espírito de parceria, capaz de gerar inovação diferenciadora. Só em conjunto e aliando os vários conhecimentos se consegue criar algo de inovador e alinhado, em que cada uma das entidades compreende a utilidade do que a outra lhe pode dar, colaborando com ganhos mútuos e com sustentabilidade. O trabalho de determinar como o negócio pode beneficiar da tecnologia e de como a tecnologia pode potenciar o negócio tem de ser feito em simultâneo, nos dois sentidos e em permanente diálogo. E não parar de transformar. Como dizia Mr. Spock, essa personagem iluminada da série ‘Star Trek’: “Change is the essential process of all existence”. l

information processing, are at the base of the 4th industrial revolution - is not obvious to entrepreneurs. The problem is that, although technology operates radical changes across companies, it’s difficult for a decision maker to decide which way to go. We currently see companies adopting new technologies here and there without a fundamental strategy and by doing so they often claim that they are already in a “process of digital transformation”. Don’t fool yourselves! Digital transformation is much more than the opportunistic adoption of certain sexier technologies. If they fail to understand this will be in a situation just like in the anecdote I told above (without useful results and after having “spent” a considerable amount of money…). Digital transformation, in the words of IDC, is the process by which companies adapt or create disruptive changes, in their customers and in their markets, using the technologies of the digital age, transforming their business models, improving their operational efficiency and organizational performance with innovative products and services combining both physical and digital. Transformation is so deep that it affects the business models themselves. Because it’s so broad and invasive it’s a process that cannot be left only in the hands of the company’s IT department. It’s essential to involve all components, from human resources to marketing and sales, through planning and production, and never forgetting compliance and risk management. Technology impacts all these aspects. The problem lies in “what to do” and “how to do it”. It’s undoubtedly a challenge for decision makers to devise a winning strategy, in this new world in which the capabilities of technology are numerous and considering that we are bombarded every day with new technological proposals. Hence the importance of specialised consultants and technological partnerships. No one knows the activity, the products and the market better than entrepreneurs, but when it comes to technological transformation we should rely on those who have specific skills and work together with them. In this new age, the relationship between companies and their suppliers, and even more so in the particular case of technology, has to be more than a mere customer/seller relationship. There must be a spirit of partnership, capable of generating differentiating innovation. Only together and combining the different kinds of knowledge will we be able to create something innovative and aligned, in which each entity understands the usefulness of what the other may offer, working together with mutual gains and in a sustainable manner. The job of ascertaining how the business can benefit from technology and how technology can enhance the business must be done simultaneously, in both directions and in permanent dialogue. And never stop transforming. As Mr. Spock, the enlightened character from the ‘Star Trek series, said: “Change is the essential process of all existence”. l 41


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OS EVENTOS QUE MARCAM O ANO PT

CONFERÊNCIA SOBRE OS OCEANOS DAS NAÇÕES UNIDAS Data: 2 a 6 de Junho de 2020 | Lisboa Lisboa vai acolher a segunda Conferência sobre os Oceanos das Nações Unidas. O mote desta conferência é “Reforçar a Acção dos Oceanos com base na Ciência e na Inovação para a Implementação do ODS14: Avaliação, Parcerias e Soluções”. A Conferência sobre os Oceanos de 2020 é coorganizada por Portugal e pelo Quénia. Este evento de alto nível das Nações Unidas tem como objectivo mobilizar o apoio global para implementar, criar, conservar e utilizar, de uma forma sustentável, os mares, os oceanos e os recursos marinhos.

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UNITED NATIONS OCEANS CONFERENCE Date: 2 to 6 June 2020 | Lisbon Lisbon will host the second United Nations Conference on Oceans. The motto of this conference is "Reinforce Ocean Action based on Science and Innovation for the Implementation of SDG14: Assessment, Partnerships and Solutions". The 2020 Oceans Conference is co-organized by Portugal and Kenya. This high-level United Nations event aims at mobilising global support to implement, create, preserve and use in a sustainable manner the seas, oceans and marine resources.

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UEFA EURO 2020 Data: 12 de Junho e 12 de Julho | Europa Campeonato Europeu de Futebol de 2020, conhecido como UEFA Euro 2020, vai ser realizado em doze cidades de diferentes países europeus durante o Verão de 2020 em comemoração dos 60 anos do torneio. Esta será a 16.ª edição do Campeonato Europeu de Futebol, campeonato quadrienal de selecções europeias organizado pela UEFA. De relembrar que a Selecção Portuguesa de Futebol foi a vencedora da edição anterior. O jogo de abertura está marcado para o dia 12 de Junho, no Stadio Olimpico, em Roma e a grande final ocorrerá no dia 12 de Julho no Estádio de Wembley, em Londres.

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UEFA EURO 2020 Date: June 12th and July 12th | Europe The 2020 European Football Championship, known as UEFA Euro 2020, will be held in twelve cities in different European countries during the summer of 2020 in celebration of the tournament's 60th anniversary. This will be the 16th edition of the European Football Championship, a four-year championship of European teams organized by UEFA. It is worth highlighting that the Portuguese Football Team was the winner of the previous edition. The opening game is scheduled for 12 June at Stadio Olimpico in Rome and the grand final will take place on 12 July at London's Wembley Stadium.


DOSSIER PT

COP26 - CONFERÊNCIA SOBRE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS Data: 9 a 19 de Novembro 2020 | Glasgow O Reino Unido foi escolhido para sediar a próxima grande Cimeira do Clima da ONU, em parceria com Itália. A Conferência terá lugar em Galsgow, em Novembro deste ano, e irá reunir mais de 30 mil delegados de todo o mundo, incluindo cientistas nesta área, dirigentes empresariais, governos e sociedade civil, com o intuito de acordarem novas acções a nível global com vista a combater as alterações climáticas.

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COP26 - CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE Date: 9 to 19 November 2020 | Glasgow The United Kingdom was chosen to host the next major UN Climate Summit, in partnership with Italy. The Conference will take place in Glasgow, in November this year, and will bring together more than 30 thousand delegates from all over the world, including scientists in this area, business leaders, governments and civil society, in order to come to agreement on new actions at a global level with a view to fighting climate change.

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JOGOS OLÍMPICOS DE VERÃO DE 2020 Data: 24 de Julho a 9 de Agosto de 2020 | Tóquio A capital nipónica vai ser o palco da XXXII edição dos Jogos Olímpicos. Esta será a segunda vez que a cidade de Tóquio acolhe os Jogos Olímpicos, depois de ter sido a cidade que recebeu o evento em 1964. São até agora dez as modalidades representadas na Equipa Portugal que estará no Japão: Atletismo, Canoagem (sprint e slalom), Ciclismo (estrada), Equestre (ensino e obstáculos), Ginástica (artística), Natação, Surf, Ténis de Mesa, Tiro com Armas de Caça e Vela. EN 2020 SUMMER OLYMPICS Date: July 24th to August 9th, 2020 | Tokyo The Japanese capital will be the stage for the 32nd edition of the Olympic Games. This will be the second time that the city of Tokyo will be hosting the Olympic Games, after having hosted the event in 1964. So far there are ten sport disciplines represented under the Portugal Team travelling to Japan: Athletics, Canoeing (sprint and slalom), Cycling (road), Equestrian (teaching and obstacles), Gymnastics (artistic), Swimming, Surf, Table Tennis, Shooting with Hunting Guns and Sailing.

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EXPO DUBAI 2020 Data: 20 de Outubro de 2020 a 10 de Abril de 2021 | Dubai Durante 173 dias, a cidade do Dubai, nos Emirados Árabes Unidos, vai acolher uma das maiores exposições do mundo, a Expo Dubai 2020, sob o tema "Connecting Minds, Creating the Future", com destaque para as áreas da mobilidade, sustentabilidade e oportunidade. O certame vai reunir 190 países, espalhados por uma área de exposição de cerca de 438 hectares, que nesta ocasião vão apresentar o que de melhor têm para oferecer nas vertentes culturais, tecnológicas, artísticas e gastronómicas.

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EXPO DUBAI 2020 Date: October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021 | Dubai For 173 days, the city of Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, will host one of the largest exhibitions in the world, Expo Dubai 2020, under the motto "Connecting Minds, Creating the Future", focused particularly on the areas of mobility, sustainability and opportunity. The event will bring together 190 countries, spread over an exhibition area of around 438 hectares, which on this occasion will present the best they have to offer in the cultural, technological, artistic and gastronomic fields.

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“ M U I TA S V E Z E S FA LTA C O N TA R , N Ã O TA N T O O R E S U LTA D O , M A S T U D O O Q U E F I Z E R A M PA R A L Á E S TA R E M ”

FOTOS: PEDRO VERDE

“ M A N Y T I M E S W H AT I S U N T O L D I S N O T S O M U C H T H E R E S U LT BUT EVERY THING THEY DID IN ORDER TO GET THERE”

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DOSSIER TOKYO 2020

MIGUEL MORGADO

A O S 3 8 A N O S , M A R C O A LV E S , É O C H E F E D E M I S S Ã O N O S J O G O S O L Í M P I C O S D E T Ó Q U I O , D E P O I S D E T E R E S TA D O E M L O N D R E S 2 0 1 2 E N O R I O 2 0 1 6 , E D E T E R C H E F I A D O O S J O G O S E U R O P E U S , D E M I N S K . A P O N TA A D U A S M E D A L H A S , M A S R E L E M B R A O T R A J E C T O D O S AT L E TA S AT É L Á C H E G A R E M . A H U M I D A D E E T E M P E R AT U R A P O D E M S E R U M O B S TÁ C U L O . N A P R E PA R A Ç Ã O , A U N I V E R S I D A D E D E C O I M B R A D E S E N V O LV E U U M A C Â M A R A PA R A A J U D A R N A P R E PA R A Ç Ã O . D A S T O M A D A S D E E L E C T R I C I D A D E , À M O N I T O R I Z A Ç Ã O D E R E D E S S O C I A I S , C Ó D I G O S D E P U B L I C I D A D E E D E C O N D U TA ( TAT U A G E N S ) T U D O E S TÁ P R E PA R A D O PA R A O S J O G O S . M A S N Ã O S E S O B R E P O R Á À S A Ú D E E , P O R I S S O , O C O R O N AV Í R U S É U M T E M A Q U E E S TÁ A S E R A C O M PA N H A D O D E P E R T O . AT T H E A G E O F 3 8 , M A R C O A L V E S I S T H E H E A D O F M I S S I O N AT T H E T O K Y O O LY M P I C G A M E S , A F T E R H AV I N G B E E N I N L O N D O N 2 0 1 2 A N D R I O 2 0 1 6 , A N D H AV I N G H E A D E D T H E E U R O P E A N G A M E S I N M I N S K . H E R E C A L L S T H E T W O M E D A L S W O N B U T R E C A L L S T H E PAT H F O L L O W E D B Y T H E AT H L E T E S B E F O R E G E T T I N G T H E R E . H U M I D I T Y A N D T E M P E R AT U R E C A N B E C O M E A N O B S TA C L E . T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F C O I M B R A D E V E L O P E D A C H A M B E R T O A S S I S T I N P R E PA R AT I O N . F R O M E L E C T R I C I T Y P L U G S T O M O N I T O R I N G S O C I A L N E T W O R K S , A D V E R T I S I N G A N D C O D E S O F C O N D U C T ( TAT T O O S ) E V E R Y T H I N G I S B E I N G P R E PA R E D F O R T H E G A M E S . B U T H E A LT H R E M A I N S T H E M A I N I S S U E A N D C O R O N AV I R U S I S A T O P I C T H AT I S B E I N G C L O S E LY M O N I T O R E D .

Depois de Londres e Rio de Janeiro, o que se espera dos Jogos Olímpicos, em Tóquio? É uma pergunta difícil. Temos tanta coisa na cabeça sobre o que estamos a preparar que é difícil seleccionar uma mensagem. O Rio foi um desafio tremendo, as instalações não estavam prontas para receber os atletas. Nesse particular, Tóquio não nos coloca nenhuma reserva. Curiosamente fomos o primeiro país a visitar oficialmente o estádio olímpico. E costumamos ser dos primeiros países a chegar. Na Aldeia Olímpica, ficamos no edifício com a melhor relação entre quartos ‘twins’ e fixos. É importante a nível de gestão do descanso dos atletas. Temos em atenção a diferença horária e tudo o que tenha a ver com descanso e conforto. O fuso horário antecipa a viagem.

After London and Rio de Janeiro, what can we expected from the Tokyo Olympic Games? It’s a difficult question. We have so much in mind as to what we are preparing that it’s difficult to select a message. Rio was a tremendous challenge, the facilities were not ready to accommodate the athletes. In this regard, Tokyo doesn’t does not pose major concerns. Interestingly, we were the first country to officially visit the Olympic stadium. And we are usually one of the first countries to arrive. In the Olympic Village, we will be staying in the building with the best ratio between ‘twin’ and fixed rooms. It’s important in terms of managing athletes’ rest. We take into account the time difference and everything that has to do with rest and comfort. The time zone anticipates the trip.

Poluição e clima constituem um problema e um desafio? Até ao ano passado perguntávamos porque é que os Jogos Olímpicos (JO) não foram marcados para Outubro (tal como em 1964). O mundial de râguebi deu a resposta. A nível de temperatura e humidade são os mais desafiantes de sempre para os atletas.

Pollution and the climate pose a problem and a challenge? Until last year, we asked why the Olympic Games (OG) were not scheduled for October (as in 1964). The rugby world cup provided the answer. The level of temperature and humidity are the most challenging ever for athletes.

Mas não é novidade para atletas olímpicos, que vão a mundiais? Estamos a falar de atletas habituados a preparam a sua época desportiva em qualquer lugar do mundo. O calendário internacional de hoje não se disputa só na Europa, como era tradicional há 20 anos. Há muito capital absorvido do lado dos atletas ao nível de ‘jet-lag’ e temperaturas, com maior incidência

But this is nothing new for Olympic athletes who go to world championships? We are talking about athletes used to preparing their sporting season anywhere in the world. Today’s international calendar doesn’t take place in Europe alone as it was common 20 years ago. There is a lot of capital absorbed on the side of athletes at the 45


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nas modalidades ‘outdoor’. Para Tóquio, as federações fizeram uma parceria com a universidade de Coimbra que tem uma câmara que simula a temperatura e humidade que se espera durante a competição. Intensificou-se o recurso à realidade simulada. E isso faz a diferença. Quem estiver melhor preparado para aquelas condições, vai competir melhor. Em 2019, nos mundiais de atletismo em Doha, em condições difíceis, um vice-campeão fez essa preparação em Coimbra. E deu proveitos. Já não vamos só para participar, certo? Já ninguém pode falar disso, pelo menos, desde 1992. A partir do momento em que existem os actuais critérios de exigência, participar é, sem dúvida, um critério de qualidade bastante exigente. Não podemos fugir à mediatização dos JO. Temos um programa de financiamento que assenta nos resultados. 2019 foi um ano profícuo na obtenção de resultados e a principal referência que temos são os mundiais, onde alcançámos seis medalhas. Tenho que fazer a pergunta da praxe. Quantas medalhas podemos esperar? Não queremos que se repita a história. O Rui Bragança (taekwondo), foi vice-campeão do mundo (2012) e não conseguiu ir a Londres. Foi bronze, em 2019, e vai disputar a qualificação. Só 16 seguem para Tóquio. Temos atletas que já mostraram nível em competição e estão num período de qualificação muito exigente. Há um processo que dificulta a projecção de resultados, mas não podemos ficar reféns desse processo. E não deixar de assumir o mérito que tivemos, atletas, treinadores, federações e do Comité, naturalmente. Os resultados em 2019 são um barómetro. Temos contratualizado com o governo pelo menos duas medalhas e 26 qualificações nos 16 primeiros. Depois há outros critérios e objectivos a que nos propusemos. É a história dos mínimos olímpicos? (Risos) Mínimos é a palavra interessante que pode ser entendida como máximos. Conto uma história. A comissão de atletas fez uma apresentação com o Marco Chuva, que tem 8,34m no salto em comprimento. Pedimos a uma pessoa para estender uma fita métrica. Ficaram todos estupefactos. Na televisão, é tudo rápido. Coronavírus. Há competições a serem canceladas. O que podemos esperar? Veio baralhar. À data, não há intenção de mexer. Mas também sabemos que houve momentos de comunicação menos felizes do Comité organizador que baralhou os media sobre o adiamento. Organização, COI e Organização Mundial de Saúde estão a acompanhar o tema. A cultura nipónica está habituada a catástrofes naturais e endémicas, e, naturalmente, haverá um cuidado de 46

“O CA L E N DÁ RIO IN T E RN ACIO N A L DE H O J E N ÃO S E D IS P U TA S Ó N A E U RO PA , CO MO E R A T R A D ICIO N A L H Á 20 A N O S .”

“ T O DAY ’ S I N T E R N AT I O N A L C A L E N DA R D O E S N ’ T TA K E P L A C E I N E U R O P E A L O N E A S I T WA S C O M M O N 2 0 Y E A R S A G O .”

level of jet-lag and temperatures, with a greater focus on outdoor modalities. As regards Tokyo, the federations have teamed up with the University of Coimbra, which has a chamber that simulates the temperature and humidity expected during the competition. The use of simulated reality was intensified. And that makes all the difference. Whoever is better prepared for those conditions will compete better. In 2019, at the athletics world championships in Doha, under difficult conditions, a vice-champion made his preparation in Coimbra. And it paid off. We’re not going just to participate, right? Nobody can claim that anymore, at least, since 1992. From the moment the current requirement criteria were put into place, participating is undoubtedly a very demanding quality criterion. We cannot escape the media coverage of the OG. We have a financing program that is based on results. 2019 was a fruitful year in obtaining results and the main reference we have at the world championships, where we achieved six medals. I have to ask the usual question. How many medals can we expect? We don’t want history to repeat. Rui Bragança (taekwondo), was vice-champion of the world (2012) and he was unable to go to London. He won bronze in 2019 and will compete for qualification. Only 16 will be going to Tokyo. We have athletes who have already shown a good level as regards competition and are in a very demanding qualifying period. There is a process that makes it difficult to plan results, but we cannot fall prey of that process. And we have to take into account the merit that we had, athletes, coaches, federations and the Committee, of course. The results in 2019 are a barometer. We have contracted with the government at least two medals and 26 qualifications in the first 16. Then there


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EDIÇÃO SEMANAL Lisboa recusa ‘congelar’ cobrança de juros do empréstimo à Região

A relevância da cobertura de risco comercial para as empresas

Nº 1972 | 19 JANEIRO 2019

PUB Cristina Bernardo

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Nº 1978 | 1 março 2019

CAIXA GERAL DE DEPÓSITOS

CPI vai ter acesso a relatório secreto que mostra como Banco de Portugal agiu no caso BES

EPAPER

Lei da Transparência Bancária deve obrigar governador Carlos Costa a entregar documento requerido pelo Bloco de Esquerda. P3 UNIVERSIDADES

“Quero trazer inovação e mais diversidade à formação de executivos” P30

CÉLINE ABECASSIS-MOEDAS Dir. da Formação de Executivos da Católica Lisbon

SEGUROS

PROTAGONISTA

“É na Roménia que queremos entrar... temos de saltar a fronteira” Pedro Soares dos Santos, CEO da Jerónimo Martins, diz em entrevista ao JE que o passo pode ser dado no curto prazo e via aquisição. Na América Latina, as opções são Peru, Chile, México e Ecuador. Sobre a rede do Grupo Dia: “não tenho interesse, nada”.

P4 a 6

Novo Banco regista prejuízo superior a 1,2 mil milhões Instituição liderada por António Ramalho apresenta hoje os resultados de 2018 e deverá divulgar perdas ligeiramente acima do montante a receber este ano do Fundo de Resolução. Limpeza de créditos do antigo BES explicam perdas.

Venda da GNB Vida à Global Bankers pode estar em risco

P20

RENDAS EXCESSIVAS

“Prefiro crer nos reguladores que em estudos pagos por empresas”, diz Hugo Costa (PS) P13 FUTEBOL

P18

Bruno Fernandes e João Félix disputam estatuto de primeira venda de clube nacional por 100 milhões de euros P33

PUB

ENSINO

Filipe Pinhal e Marques dos Santos lançam novo colégio St. Dominic’s P22

RESULTADOS

Pesos-pesados engordam lucros, mas EDP vai contrabalançar P24

CONTESTAÇÃO

Negociação bloqueada dá reposição de dois anos e nove meses para professores P8

JOSÉ RIBEIRO E CASTRO

“O PS é o partido que está mais convencido” a alterar o sistema eleitoral português P10

BARÓMETRO EY

ey.com

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DOSSIER TÓQUIO 2020 avaliar a situação. Nada se sobrepõe (contratos assinados) à saúde pública. Estamos a acompanhar. O tema segurança passa para segundo plano perante a saúde? Num evento que reúne 11 mil atletas, ‘staff’, 206 países, a preocupação é muito presente. A cultura japonesa deixa-nos descansados. O Japão não é um país de ataque, as fileiras militares estão apontadas à defesa. A parte da segurança está controlada. E vamos ter formação em cibersegurança e monitorização de redes sociais dos atletas. Está previsto alguma sensibilização para a sua utilização por parte de atletas? Nos encontros com atletas olímpicos essas questões foram abordadas. Em particular, temos atenção à regra 40 da carta olímpica (publicidade) sobre o que os atletas não podem fazer durante o período de 14 de Julho a 11 de Agosto, reservado aos patrocinadores dos Jogos. Um atleta patrocinado por uma marca de carros que não a dos JO, só pode dizer “agradeço à marca x o apoio” uma vez. Há um conjunto de regras, questões e alusões ao Japão que têm sido abordadas em todos os fóruns. No mundial de râguebi, no Japão, os atletas foram avisados sobre as tatuagens. Há preocupações e recomendações do COI e do comité organizador. As tatuagens são uma delas. É uma questão cultural. O japonês, em geral, pode associar à máfia (yakuza). Ainda que a cultura japonesa seja diferente, Tóquio é uma cidade preparada para estes grandes eventos, recebe muitos e não só de desporto. Acredito que haja uma preocupação dos habitantes de Tóquio de se adaptarem a este evento. Trabalho que faz não se resume a um ‘check-ins’ de inscritos. Vai de A Z. Os nossos equipamentos não funcionam, devido à voltagem. Levamos equipamento médico que se não estiver tratado, não funciona. A acreditação. Esclarecer se as tendas onde o BTT fará aquecimento para a prova terá electricidade ou teremos que levar mais uma ventoinha. Saber a temperatura e humidade prevista para o Velómedro. Os pneus gastam-se, mais ou menos, conforme essas situações. Pedidos de viagens feitos em Maio de 2019, sem sabermos o número de atletas. Hoje isto não é vamos para os Jogos. Há um processo que passa por muita coisa.

T O C H A S O L I M P I C A S O LY M P I C T O R C H E S

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are other criteria and objectives that we set ourselves. You are referring to the issue of Olympic minimums? (Laughter) Minimum is an interesting word that can be understood as maximum. Let me tell you a story. The athletes’ committee made a presentation with Marco Chuva, who achieved 8.34m in long jump. We asked a person to extend a measuring tape. They were all astonished. On television, everything is fast. Coronavirus. There are competitions being cancelled. What can we expect? This issue is blurring things. To date, there is no intention to stir things. But we also know that there were less happy moments of communication from the organizing committee that puzzled the media as regards postponement. The Organization, The IOC and World Health Organization are following the developments. Japanese culture is used to natural and endemic disasters, and, of course, care will be taken to assess the situation. Nothing (signed contracts) is more important public health. We are following this issue. Does the security issue take second place to health? In an event that brings together 11 thousand athletes, staff, 206 countries, the concern pretty much there. Japanese culture plays a reassuring role here. Japan is not a country of attack, the military ranks focus rather on defence. The security issue is under control. And we will have training in cybersecurity and monitoring the athletes’ social media. Is there any awareness as regards its use by athletes? In the meetings with Olympic athletes, these issues were addressed. In particular, we pay attention to rule 40 of the Olympic charter (advertising) on what athletes cannot do during the period from 14 July to 11 August, reserved for the sponsors of the Games. An athlete sponsored by a car brand other than the OG, can only say “I thank the brand x the support” once. There is a set of rules, issues and allusions to Japan that have been addressed in all forums. At the rugby world championship in Japan, athletes were warned about tattoos. There are concerns and recommendations from the IOC and the organizing committee. Tattoos are one of them. It’s a cultural issue. The Japanese, in general, can associate them with the mafia (yakuza). Although the Japanese culture is different, Tokyo is a city prepared for these great events, it hosts many and not only sports. I believe that there is a concern of the inhabitants of Tokyo to adapt to this event. The work they do is not just check-in of participants. It goes from A to Z. Our equipment does not work, due to the voltage. We bring medical equipment that, if not treated, will not work. Accreditation. Clarify whether the tents where the MTB will heat up for the race will have electricity or we will have to take one more fan. Know the predicted temperature and humidity for Velodrome. The tires wear out, more or less, depending on these situations. Travel requests made in May 2019, without knowing the number of athletes. Today without this we cannot go to the Games. There is a process that goes through a lot of issues.


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DOSSIER TÓQUIO 2020 Os japoneses já lhe falaram da introdução da arma de fogo em terras nipónicas? Bastante. É interessante, como há um conhecimento tão grande e afectivo quando o que se lembram é que levámos a espingarda....

Have the Japanese already told you about the introduction of firearms in Japanese soil? Very much. It’s interesting, as there is such a great and affective knowledge when what they remember is that we introduce the shotgun....

Não é nada olímpico? Olímpico não é de certeza, embora haja o tiro olímpico (risos). Deveria haver mais razões para não recordar do que valorizar. Visitámos o museu em Tóquio e está muito presente a chegada dos portugueses ao Japão, simbolizada pela espingarda. Curiosamente, sentem a falta de restaurantes e da influência gastronómica.

Which is not Olympic? Olympic is not for sure, although there is the Olympic shooting competition (laughs). There should be more reasons for not remembering than to value. We visited the museum in Tokyo and the arrival of the Portuguese in Japan, symbolized by the shotgun, is very present. Interestingly, they feel the lack of restaurants and the gastronomic influence.

Momento alto que até hoje teve nos ciclos olímpicos que acompanhou? É muito profundo...não estava preparado para essa pergunta. O ponto alto é preparar as coisas para os atletas. Temos atletas fenomenais. E temos uma máxima: não são só os atletas que têm de ser de alto rendimento. Nós, a Missão, temos que ter a capacidade para garantir as condições que eles efectivamente merecem. E fazemos isso todos os dias (eu e a Catarina Monteiro, adjunta de chefe de missão).

A particular highlight you would like to refer until today in the Olympic cycles you followed? It’s very profound... I was not prepared for that question. The highlight is to prepare things for athletes. We have phenomenal athletes. And we have a motto: it’s not only athletes who have to be high-performing. We, the Mission, must have the capacity to guarantee the conditions that they actually deserve. And we do this every day (me and Catarina Monteiro, deputy head of mission).

E o maior desgosto? Vou dizer e vai parecer mal. Tenho achado estranho tudo o que é compromisso da Aldeia. O sistema de funcionamento do comité organizador não tem sido o mais fácil.

And the biggest heartbreak? If I say it will look bad. I found everything related to compromise in the Village very strange. The organizing committee’s operating system has not been the easiest.

P E RG U N TA S R Á P I DA S Quantos atletas vão representar Portugal em Tóquio, de 24 de Julho e 9 de Agosto? Estamos a apontar para 70 a 80 atletas. Data limite para inscrições dos atletas para a XXXII edição dos JO? A 6 de Julho. Haverá qualificações até finais de Junho. O abraço a Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa quando está? A 7 de Julho será a apresentação junto do Presidente da República. A missão parte a 8 e os atletas começam a chegar a 14. O presidente que estará depois no Navio Escola Sagres, a casa de Portugal? A nomeação do porta estandarte é feita em Tóquio, a bordo da Sagres. E o simbolismo é mesmo esse. Em Lisboa, a Missão entregou a bandeira ao Presidente, que a entregou ao comandante do Navio. Vamos repetir em Tóquio para ser a bandeira que irá desfiar na cerimónia de abertura. Quem será o vizinho de Portugal na aldeia olímpica e com quem se dão melhor? Em Pequim foi Israel, em Londres, a Grécia e no Rio, foi o Azerbaijão. Não há parceiros chatos à partida. Na preparação somos todos os amigos. A família olímpica é exactamente isso. Os atletas são adversários, mas fora de competição são amigos. Além do “obrigado” o que ensinaram aos atletas? Há um guia de conversação da organização. Vou ser sincero, a maior parte das palavras que aprendi em japonês foi com atletas que já lá estiveram. Uma das magias do desporto é esta experiência que proporciona aos atletas. E comida, não será sushi todos os dias? É uma conversa do futebol (risos). A aldeia olímpica é o sítio mais preparado. Mesmo que tivéssemos a ambição de levar um cozinheiro não iria acrescentar nada ao que lá vamos encontrar de dieta internacional para atletas. Com as ementas, em Abril, faremos, dentro da medicina desportiva, um aconselhamento.

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DOSSIER TOKYO 2020 Pode explicar? Os japoneses têm uma cultura muito hierarquizada e tudo o que seja alterações ao previsto demora muito tempo. Dificilmente conseguimos falar com as pessoas que decidem. Temos que apresentar o nosso caso, muitas das vezes, com muita diplomacia. O tempo da apresentação a quem decide e a voltar... temos ansiedade de ter as coisas prontas e, às vezes, não conseguimos ter do lado japonês. Há coisas que já queríamos ter seguras e ainda não estão. Não é desgosto, mas ansiedade. Nas infraestruturas, está tudo preparado. Estávamos à espera que aqui também estivesse. O público foca-se nos resultados dos atletas e esquece o caminho até lá? Já os acompanhamos há alguns anos e se possível sei o nome do cão do atleta x, as marcas e o ‘curriculum’ até chegar lá. É isso que muitas vezes falta contar, não tanto o resultado, mas tudo o que fizeram para lá estarem. As coisas não correm sempre bem. É necessário recorrer à história para relembrar quando as coisas correm menos bem que este atleta já ganhou isto e aquilo. Os Jogos são uma competição para a qual os atletas se preparam. Tenho presente uma frase de Rui Bragança: “ninguém quer mais lá estar que eu”. É isso que as pessoas devem ter presente. Eles querem lá estar e no melhor. Mas não são máquinas. 11 mil atletas, 300 e tal eventos de medalhas e 10 mil regressam a casa sem medalhas. É necessário ter a consciência desses números. l

Can you explain? The Japanese have a very hierarchical culture and anything that changes to what was planned takes a long time. We can hardly talk to the people who decide. We have to present our case, often with great diplomacy. The time of the present things to those who decide and to return... we are anxious to have things ready and, sometimes, we are unable to have them ready from the Japanese side. There are things that we already wanted to have duly ensured and are not yet. It’s not heartbreak, but anxiety. In infrastructure, everything is prepared. We were hoping that things were up to the point here too. Does the public focus on the athletes’ results and forget the way there? We have been accompanying them for some years and if possible I know the name of the x athlete’s dog, the brands marks and the ‘curriculum’ until getting there. “Many times what is untold is not so much the result but everything they did in order to get there” Things don’t always go well. We need to look into history to remember when things are going less well that and that this athlete has already won this and that. The Games are a competition athletes prepare themselves for. I am aware of a phrase by Rui Bragança: “nobody wants to be there more than me”. This is what people should be aware of. They want to be there and at their best. But they are not machines. 11 thousand athletes, 300 and such medal events and 10 thousand return home without medals. It’s necessary to be aware of these numbers. l

QUICK QUESTIONS How many athletes will represent Portugal in Tokyo, on July 24 and August 9? We are aiming for 70 to 80 athletes. Deadline for the registration of athletes for the 31st edition of the OG? July 6 There will be qualifications until the end of June. The hug to President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa when is it due to happen? On 7 July, the presentation before the President of the Republic will take place. The mission starts on the 8 and the athletes start to reach 14. The President who will later be on the Sagres School Ship, the home of Portugal? The standard bearer will be appointed in Tokyo, on board Sagres. And that is the symbolism. In Lisbon, the Mission handed over the flag to the President, who handed it over to the ship’s commander. We will repeat this in Tokyo so that it will be the same flag that we will wave at the opening ceremony. Who will be Portugal’s neighbour in the Olympic village and with whom do they get along better? In Beijing it was Israel, in London, Greece and in Rio, it was Azerbaijan. There are no boring partners to begin with. In preparation we are all friends. The Olympic family is just that. Athletes are opponents, but out of competition they are friends. Besides “thank you”, what did you teach the athletes? There is a conversation guide from the organization. I’ll be honest, most of the words I learned in Japanese were from athletes who have been there. One of the magic of sport is this experience that offers athletes. And as regards food, it’s not sushi every day? This is football talk (laughs). The Olympic village is the most prepared place. Even if we had the ambition to bring a cook with us, it would not add anything to what we will find there as regards international diet for athletes. As regards the menus, in April we will receive advice from sports medicine.

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DOSSIER EURO 2020

UMA VITRINA PAR A O E U RO A SHOWCASE FOR THE EURO

P O R T U G A L P R O C U R A R Á R E VA L I D A R O T Í T U L O E U R O P E U E M 2 0 2 0 . U M C A M I N H O D E F U T U R O Q U E S E P R E PA R A N O P R E S E N T E . P O R T U G A L W I L L T R Y T O W I N T H E E U R O P E A N T I T L E A G A I N I N 2 0 2 0 . A PAT H F O R T H E F U T U R E T H AT I S B E I N G P R E PA R E D I N T H E P R E S E N T.

FOTOS:: FPF

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a Cidade do Futebol, sede da FPF, há um espaço dedicado à exposição dos troféus conquistados por algumas das vinte e cinco seleções nacionais. O espaço tem duas particularidades que decorrem da própria cultura e momento federativos: em primeiro lugar, dos oito troféus expostos, que representam nove títulos, sete foram conquistados nos últimos cinco anos; em segundo, a FPF deixa sempre uma vitrina vazia – a que fica reservada para a próxima conquista. Uma leitura da história recente do trajeto das seleções de Portugal revela outras realidades generosas para o trabalho feito por jogadores, treinadores, clubes, associações e própria FPF: Portugal é, neste momento, o detentor da Liga das Nações e o atual campeão europeu de futebol, futsal e

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A

t Cidade do Futebol, the Portuguese Football Federation (PFF) headquarters, there is an area to display the trophies won by some of the twenty-five national teams. This space has two particular features closely linked to both the culture of this federation and particular moments in time: first, of the eight trophies on display, representing nine titles, seven were won in the last five years; second, the PFF always leaves an empty space - the one that is here to accommodate the next trophy. The recent history of the national teams of Portugal shows some generous realities for the work done by players, coaches, clubs, associations and the PFF itself: Portugal is currently the holder of the champion titles of the League (Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


DOSSIER EURO 2020

FRANCISCO TRIGO DE ABREU, FEDERAÇÃO PORTUGUESA DE FUTEBOL PORTUGUESE FOOTBALL FEDER ATION

futebol de praia, modalidade a que também junta o título de campeão mundial. Traduzindo, Portugal atravessa, do ponto de vista desportivo, os melhores anos da sua história numa trajetória que continua num ritmo ascendente. Assim, nos próximos meses, Portugal, na sua sétima presença consecutiva em fases finais de um Campeonato da Europa, defenderá o título mais importante da sua história. Uma coisa é certa: Portugal, depois do dia 10 de julho de 2016, declarado oficialmente feriado por Éder, marcador do golo que tornou Portugal numa incontestável e temida potência desportiva, continuou a demonstrar todos os predicados de uma equipa vencedora. A qualificação e presença no Mundial de futebol 2018, a conquista da Liga das Nações e o apuramento para esta nova edição do Campeonato da Europa são inequívocos, tal como são os números alcançados pelo Selecionador Nacional Fernando Santos. Em cinco anos e alguns meses, o timoneiro da equipa lusa tem um registo de 32 vitórias, 12 empates e apenas três derrotas em 47 jogos oficiais. É o Selecionador Nacional com mais vitórias ao serviço de Portugal, feito que alcançou precisamente no jogo em que carimbou, com uma vitória por 2-0 no Luxemburgo, a presença no Campeonato da Europa. Este trajeto terá de ser sublimado, sobretudo se tivermos em conta o próprio contexto europeu. Portugal é uma das seis equipas nacionais totalistas em fases finais do Euro nos últimos vinte e quatro anos – na companhia de França, Alemanha, Espanha, Itália e República Checa – mas é, com Espanha, que venceu o troféu em duas ocasiões, a que se saiu melhor em todas estas competições. Portugal venceu em 2016, foi finalista em 2004 e semifinalista em 2000 e 2012. Chegámos sempre, como em 1996 e 2008, aos quartos de final. Se se contabilizarem também as presenças nas fases decisivas do Mundial, a partir de 2002, Portugal, França, Alemanha e Espanha são as únicas equipas europeias totalistas nas fases finais das duas maiores competições de futebol. O feito é ainda mais significativo se tivermos em conta que as outras três equipas que nos fazem companhia conquistaram os três últimos títulos mundiais. Ainda antes do sorteio da Fase Final do Euro 2020, realizado na capital romena de Bucareste, os membros das várias comitivas eram unânimes na expetativa de evitarem a todo custo Portugal, que por alterações no sistema de atribuição de estatuto de cabeça de série, que deixou de ter em conta os resultados agregados dos últimos anos e o ‘ranking ‘

of Nations, European football, futsal and beach soccer, a modality where Portugal has also secured the title of world champion. Translating, Portugal goes through, from a sports point of view, the best years of its history in a path that keeps moving upwards. Thus, in the coming months, Portugal, in its seventh consecutive presence in the final stages of a European Championship, will defend the most important title in its history. One thing is certain: Portugal, after July 10, 2016, officially declared a public holiday by Éder, the man who scored the goal that made Portugal an undeniable and feared sporting power, continued to show all the predicates of a winning team. The qualification and presence in the 2018 Football World Cup, the victory in the League of Nations and the qualification for this new edition of the European Championship are unequivocal, as are the numbers achieved by the National Coach Fernando Santos. In five years and a few months, the helmsman of the Portuguese team has achieved a record number of 32 wins, 12 draws and just three losses in 47 official matches. He is the National Coach with the most victories at the service of Portugal, a feat he achieved precisely in the game in which he stamped, with a 2-0 victory in Luxembourg, the presence in the European Championship. This path will have to be improved, especially if we take into account the European context itself. Portugal is one of six national teams in the final stages of the Euro in the last twenty-four years - together with France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic - but it was against Spain, the country that won the trophy on two occasions, that Portugal did better in all these competitions. Portugal won in 2016, was a finalist in 2004 and a semifinalist in 2000 and 2012. We have always reached, just like in 1996 and 2008, the quarterfinals. If we factor in the decisive stages of the World Cup, from 2002 onwards, Portugal, France, Germany and Spain are the only European that made it in the final stages of the two biggest football competitions. The achievement is even more significant if we take into account that the other three teams that keep us company won the last three world titles. Even before the Euro 2020 Final Phase Draw, held in the Romanian capital of Bucharest, the members of the various committees were unanimous in their desire to avoid at all costs Portugal, which due to changes in the 53


DOSSIER EURO 2020 mundial, tinha ficado alocado no terceiro pote de sorteados. Sabemos agora que a expetativa de França e Alemanha foram defraudadas e que, em conjunto com mais uma equipa ainda por definir no play-off, terão de enfrentar o atual campeão europeu. O grupo da morte, como foi apelidado desde aí, reunirá assim três das maiores potências desportivas mundiais. A França, finalista vencido do Euro 2016 e atual campeã mundial, e a Alemanha, campeã mundial em 2014, tricampeã europeia e finalista desta competição, sem exceções, desde 1972, serão os cabeças de cartaz num grupo a que ainda se juntará uma potência emergente. Com o formato alterado, com a fase final a ser disputada em doze cidades europeias diferentes, a Alemanha jogará toda a fase de grupos em casa. O Grupo F soma, no conjunto dos países já sorteados, seis títulos conquistados, apresentando-se como o grupo mais titulado de todos os presentes. Aliás, o conjunto de todas as seleções presentes no Euro 2020, incluindo as que ainda se poderão apurar, conquistaram apenas cinco títulos (Espanha, por três vezes, Itália e Países Baixos). Portugal, saberá, como diz o velho aforismo, que para vencer a Europa terá de se vencer, de novo e em primeiro lugar, a si mesmo. A conquista da Liga das Nações, no Porto, no verão passado, demonstra que Portugal não descansou sobre os louros conquistados. Numa equipa renovada na continuidade, Portugal eliminou sucessivamente Polónia (19º ranking FIFA), Itália (13º), Suíça (12º) e Países Baixos (14º) conquistando a primeira edição da nova competição de elite da UEFA. A própria consistência da Seleção Nacional na tabela da FIFA demonstra todo o trabalho coerente e linear dos comandados de Fernando Santos. Portugal é a sétima

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system of awarding the status of top of the series, which no longer takes into account the aggregate results of recent years and the world ranking, had been allocated in the third pot of teams that has been drawn. We now know that the expectations of France and Germany have been defeated and that, together with another team yet to be defined in the play-off they will have to face the current European champion. The death group, as it has been dubbed since, will thus bring together three of the world’s greatest sporting powers. France, the defeated finalist of Euro 2016 and current world champion, and Germany, world champion in 2014, threetimes European champion and finalist in this competition, without exceptions, since 1972, will headline this group which relies now also on an emerging power. With the format changed, with the finals to be played in twelve different European cities, Germany will play the entire group stage in its own national fields. Group F adds, in the group of countries already selected, six titles won, thus coming up as the group with the largest number of titles won. In fact, the group of all the national teams present at Euro 2020, including those that may still qualify, won only five titles (Spain, three times, Italy and the Netherlands). Portugal will know, as the old aphorism says, that in order to beat Europe, it will have to beat itself, again and in the first place. The victory of the League of Nations, in Porto, last summer, shows that Portugal did not rest on its laurels. In a team renewed in continuity, Portugal successively eliminated Poland (19th FIFA ranking), Italy (13th), Switzerland (12th) and Netherlands (14th) winning the first edition of the new UEFA elite competition. The very consistency of the National Team in the FIFA table shows all the coherent and linear


DOSSIER EURO 2020

melhor equipa do Mundo e está no “Top Ten” há mais de 60 meses seguidos. O apuramento para o Euro 2020 também serviu para confirmar todo o talento ao serviço de Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo, com cinco bolas de ouro no seu museu, marcou onze golos, foi o segundo melhor marcador de todas as fases de qualificação e responsável por 50 por cento dos golos de Portugal. Os mais jovens Bernardo Silva (3 golos), Gonçalo Guedes (2) e William Carvalho (2) também estiveram evidência. Bernardo Silva foi o 2º melhor assistente no caminho para o Euro 2020 com seis passes para golo durante toda a competição. Um começo onde a sorte não sorriu aos portugueses, especialmente nos confrontos caseiros com Ucrânia e Sérvia, ditaram a segunda posição num grupo onde também participaram Luxemburgo e Lituânia. Com um registo único a nível europeu de presenças consecutivas em grandes competições desde 2016 – Euro 2016, Taça das Confederações 2017, Mundial 2018, Liga das Nações 2019 e Euro 2020 –, Portugal parte para a defesa do seu título com o conforto de quem sabe que também tem feito um trabalho valioso ao nível da formação. Portugal conquistou o Euro sub-17 no mesmo ano em que se sagrou campeão europeu, mas também juntou o título de sub-19 em 2018, sendo que nessa categoria esteve nas últimas três finais. Se uma visita à Cidade do Futebol e às suas vitrinas poderá servir para contemplar esta nova realidade das seleções de Portugal também se sabe que, ali, o presente é sempre o lugar de eleição do futebol nacional. Porque é através dele que se conseguirá ocupar o expositor ainda vazio. l

work of Fernando Santos’ team. Portugal is the seventh best team in the world and has been in the “Top Ten” for more than 60 consecutive months. The qualification for Euro 2020 also served to confirm the pool of talents at the service of Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo, with five Ballons d’Or in his museum, scored eleven goals, was the second best scorer of all qualifying phases and accounted for 50% of Portugal’s goals. The youngest Bernardo Silva (3 goals), Gonçalo Guedes (2) and William Carvalho (2) also stood out. Bernardo Silva was the 2nd best leading assist players on the way to Euro 2020 with six goals passes throughout the competition. A start where luck didn’t smile on the Portuguese, especially in the home matches with Ukraine and Serbia, thus placing it in the second position in a group where Luxembourg and Lithuania also participated. With a unique European record of consecutive appearances in major competitions since 2016 - Euro 2016, Confederations Cup 2017, World Cup 2018, League of Nations 2019 and Euro 2020 -, Portugal sets out to defend its title with the comfort of those who know that they have done also a good work at the level of training. Portugal won the U-17 Euro in the same year that it was crowned European champion, but also joined the U-19 title in 2018, and in that category was in the last three finals. If a visit to Cidade do Futebol and its showcases can serve to contemplate this new reality of the Portuguese teams, it is also known that there the present is always the place of choice for national football. Because it is through it that we will be able to fill the space left empty to display another trophy. l

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DOSSIER EXPO 2020 DUBAI

UM MUNDO NUM PAÍS THE WHOLE WORLD IN ONE COUNTRY

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DOSSIER EXPO 2020 DUBAI

PA RT I L H A R

EXPERIÊNCIAS

DE

DESENVOLVIMENTO

E

I N O VA Ç Ã O ,

DIFUNDIR

IDEIAS

E P R O J E C T O S S O B R E O F U T U R O E E X P L O R A R N O VA S A B O R DA G E N S À S T E M ÁT I C A S DA M O B I L I DA D E , S U S T E N TA B I L I DA D E E O P O R T U N I DA D E , S ÃO O S G R A N D E S O B J E C T I V O S DA EXPO 2020 DUBAI, A DECORRER ENTRE 20 DE OUTUBRO DE 2020 E 10 DE ABRIL DE 2021. S H A R I N G D E V E L O P M E N T A N D I N N O VAT I O N E X P E R I E N C E S , D I S S E M I N AT E I D E A S A N D P R O J E C T S A B O U T T H E F U T U R E A N D E X P L O R E N E W A P P R O A C H E S T O T H E T H E M E S O F M O B I L I T Y, S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y A N D O P P O R T U N I T Y A R E T H E M A I N O B J E C T I V E S O F E X P O 2 0 2 0 D U B A I , T O TA K E P L A C E B E T W E E N 2 0 O C T O B E R 2020 AND 10 APRIL 2021.

FOTOS: PORTUGAL EXPO 2020 DUBAI

A

s Exposições Mundiais têm, em tempos mais recentes, adquirido uma renovada importância enquanto grandes eventos para o intercâmbio económico, científico, tecnológico e cultural, constituindo uma importante plataforma global de partilha de experiências e ideias inovadoras. A Expo 1998 Lisboa marcou definitivamente o referencial destas exposições e o início de um ciclo de exposições que privilegiam o tema da Sustentabilidade. Posteriormente, Portugal participou na Expo Hannover 2000, Aichi 2005, Zaragoza 2008 e Shangai 2010. Após um interregno de 10 anos (Expo 2015 Milan e Expo 2017 Astana), Portugal vai participar na Expo 2020 Dubai, a decorrer de 20 de Outubro de 2020 a 10 de Abril de 2021. Durante estes 173 dias os países participantes vão partilhar as suas experiências de desenvolvimento e inovação, difundir ideias e projectos sobre o futuro e, sob o lema “Connecting Minds, Creating the Future”, explorar em conjunto novas abordagens às temáticas da Mobilidade, Sustentabilidade e Oportunidade, os subtemas da Expo 2020 Dubai. A Expo 2020 Dubai vai acolher o mundo e a sua diversidade enquanto palco de entusiamo e de expressão da personalidade de cada um dos 192 países participantes e das 25 milhões de visitas esperadas, 70 % das quais de visitantes estrangeiros. O ‘masterplan’ da Expo 2020 foi concebido para reflectir o tema da exposição. Trata-se de um desenho simétrico onde se podem distinguir as três áreas temáticas em forma de pétalas, “Opportunity”, “Mobility” e “Sustainability”, que emanam de uma praça central com 150 metros de diâmetro chamada Al Wasl, o nome histórico do Dubai que significa “The Connection”. Esta praça está no centro do recinto da exposição, com acesso a cada uma das três áreas temáticas e vai funcionar como ponto de encontro para os visitantes e local de diversas actividades culturais e musicais. Cerca de 200 hectares vão ser dedicados ao espaço da exposição, com pavilhões de diferentes dimensões, e os restantes 240 hectares para a construção da Expo

W

orld Exhibitions have regained importance in recent times as major events for the economic, scientific, technological and cultural exchange and have become an important global platform to share experiences and

innovative ideas. Expo 1998 Lisboa definitely set the benchmark for these exhibitions and marked the beginning of a cycle of exhibitions focusing on the theme of Sustainability. Subsequently, Portugal participated in Expo Hannover 2000, Aichi 2005, Zaragoza 2008 and Shanghai 2010. After a 10-year break (Expo 2015 Milan and Expo 2017 Astana), Portugal will participate in Expo 2020 Dubai, taking place from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021. During these 173 days, participating countries will share their experiences in the fields of development and innovation, disseminate ideas and projects about the future and, under the motto “Connecting Minds, Creating the Future”, explore together new approaches to the themes of Mobility, Sustainability and Opportunity, the subthemes of Expo 2020 Dubai. Expo 2020 Dubai welcomes the world and its diversity and will become the stage to share the enthusiasm and express the personality of each of the 192 participating countries and of the 25 million expected visitors, 70% of which will be foreign. The Expo 2020 masterplan was designed to reflect the theme of the exhibition. It’s a symmetrical design where the three theme areas are laid out like petals, “Opportunity”, “Mobility” and “Sustainability”, which emanate from a central square 150 meters in diameter called Al Wasl, the historic name for Dubai meaning “The Connection”. This square lies in the centre of the exhibition grounds, leading to each of the three thematic areas and will act as a meeting point for visitors and a place for a number of cultural and musical activities. Around 200 hectares will be allocated as exhibition space, with pavilions of different sizes and the remaining 240 hectares to build the Expo Village, hotels, warehouses, parking

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DOSSIER EXPO 2020 DUBAI Village, hotéis, armazéns, parques de estacionamento, infraestruturas de transportes e logística. Após o encerramento da Expo 2020 Dubai irá nascer uma nova área, denominada “District 2020 – Connect, Create, Innovate”, que combinará um ‘hub’ de inovação empresarial, com áreas residenciais, locais de entretenimento e hotéis, múltiplas atracções culturais e infra-estruturas, estando projectado para que, na sua capacidade plena, possa acolher 90.000 habitantes. O objectivo dos Emirados Árabes Unidos é que o “District 2020” permita a colaboração entre grandes, pequenas empresas e empreendedores que possam contribuir para a sustentabilidade, desenvolvimento e posicionamento do Dubai como a “Economia da Inovação”.

lots and transport and logistics infrastructures. After Expo 2020 Dubai a new area will be born here, called “District 2020 - Connect, Create, Innovate”, combining a business innovation hub, residential areas, entertainment venues and hotels, multiple cultural attractions and infrastructures and it’s planned to have the capacity to accommodate 90,000 inhabitants. The United Arab Emirates objective is that “District 2020” will enable collaboration between large, small companies and entrepreneurs, thereby contributing to the sustainability, development and positioning of Dubai as the “Economy of Innovation”.

P AV I L H Ã O D E P O R T U G A L P O R T U G A L P AV I L I O N

A presença de Portugal na Expo 2020 Dubai

Portugal’s presence at Expo 2020 Dubai

A Expo 2020 Dubai constitui uma oportunidade para Portugal apresentar-se ao mundo e por ele ser redescoberto. Para partilhar a sua história e cultura, para promover o turismo e o património, para se posicionar na economia circular, nas energias renováveis e na economia azul, para ambicionar mais com a sua capacidade científica, com os seus empreendedores, com os desafios nos mares e no aeroespacial. E, sobretudo, para partilhar com o mundo o seu maior activo: os Portugueses – a sua capacidade de acolher, de estabelecer relações, de fazer acontecer. Durante seis meses, a participação portuguesa na Expo será

Expo 2020 Dubai is an opportunity for Portugal to present itself to the world and to be rediscovered. To share its history and culture, to promote tourism and heritage, to position itself in the circular economy, in renewable energies and in the blue economy, to set a higher ambition with its scientific capacity, with its entrepreneurs, with the challenges in sea and in aerospace. And, above all, to share their greatest asset with the world: the Portuguese - their ability to welcome and establish relationships and to make things happen. For the duration of six months, the Portuguese participation in Expo will be a major stage to the world. A stage to host both

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DOSSIER EXPO 2020 DUBAI

O T E M A DA PA R T I C I PAÇ ÃO D E P O R T U G A L - “ U M M U N D O N U M PA Í S “ P R E T E N D E T R A N S M I T I R O M U LT I C U LT U R A L I S M O D E P O R T U G A L T H E T H E M E O F P O R T U G A L’ S P A R T I C I P A T I O N - “ T H E W H O L E W O R L D I N O N E C O U N T R Y ” , A I M S A T C O N V E Y I N G T H E M U LT I C U LT U R A L I T Y OF PORTUGAL

um grande palco para o mundo. Um palco para acolher, quer o planeado quer a oportunidade. Um espaço de diálogo e de reforço de relações com o resto do mundo. Uma plataforma de criação de oportunidades que promete abrir novos caminhos nas relações económicas, políticas, diplomáticas e culturais entre Portugal, os Emirados Árabes Unidos (EAU) e os restantes países da região. O tema da participação de Portugal - “Um mundo num país”, pretende transmitir a multiculturalidade de Portugal, que arrancou com a globalização no século XV, levando os Portugueses a contactar com diferentes povos, permitindo que língua e cultura absorvessem influências de todos os continentes, mas também que fosse expandida a sua difusão, transformando o português na quinta língua mais falada no mundo. O pavilhão de Portugal vai estar localizado num lote com uma área total de 1.860 metros quadrados entre as zonas temáticas dedicadas aos subtemas Mobilidade e Sustentabilidade e em frente ao Jubilee Park. A “casa de Portugal” vai incluir uma área dedicada à diplomacia económica, disponível para acolher eventos e reuniões, um espaço de restauração, onde o visitante poderá contactar com a gastronomia portuguesa, um terraço para usufruir da paisagem envolvente e da faceta mais lúdica que bem caracteriza os portugueses e uma loja onde

what is planned and to welcome new opportunities. A space for dialogue and to strengthen relations with the rest of the world. A platform for creating opportunities that will be there to open new paths in economic, political, diplomatic and cultural relations between Portugal, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the remaining countries in the region. The theme of Portugal’s participation - “The whole world in one country”, aims at conveying the multiculturality of Portugal, which started with globalization in the 15th century, leading the Portuguese to contact with different peoples, allowing its language and culture to absorb influences from all continents while expanding also its dissemination, making Portuguese the fifth most spoken language in the world. The Portugal pavilion will be located on a plot with a total area of 1,860 square meters with theme areas dedicated to the sub-themes of Mobility and Sustainability and facing the Jubilee Park. The “house of Portugal” will include an area dedicated to economic diplomacy, which will be there to host events and meetings, a restaurant, where visitors can taste Portuguese gastronomy, a terrace to enjoy the surrounding landscape and the most recreational aspect that does characterizes the Portuguese and a store where 59


DOSSIER EXPO 2020 DUBAI

Expo 2020 Dubai em números

Expo 2020 Dubai figures Alguns dos seguintes indicadores traduzem a dimensão daquele que é considerado o terceiro maior evento com impacto económico e cultural à escala global:

173 dias

192

de duração

de visitantes

192 participating countries

15 million visitors

70%

20%

300

70% international visitors

20% business visitors

300 hectares of exhibition space

visitantes internacionais

12 km

12 linear km of shade

visitantes business

300.000

lineares de sombra

visitantes/dia/capacidade

crianças grátis

Horário

60

200

60 daily shows

200 Restaurants

10h00 às 02h00 10:00 am to 2:00 am

€ 30 (1 day) to € 64 (3 days) free admission for children

os visitantes podem adquirir uma memória física da sua viagem por “Um mundo num país”. O conteúdo da exposição vai ser dividido em quatro grandes áreas conceptuais que se fundem com a estrutura física do pavilhão. Destaque para “Área Experiência”, dividida em duas subáreas, uma global, composta por um evento multimédia cíclico de grande impacto, outra personalizável onde o visitante poderá escolher interagir com conteúdos e acervo sobre as sete áreas estratégicas onde Portugal desempenha ou tem ambições de desempenhar um papel relevante no palco mundial: Aeroespacial, Ciência, Economia Azul, Empreendedorismo, Energias Renováveis, História e Cultura, Turismo e Hospitalidade. l

hectares de exposição

espetáculos diários

300,000 visitors/day/capacity

30€ (1 dia) a 64€ (3 dias)

60

15 milhões

países participantes

(20.10.2010 a 10.04.2021)

173 days duration (20.10.2010 to 10.04.2021)

Some of the following indicators reflect the size of what is considered the third largest event with an economic and cultural impact on a global scale:

Restaurantes

10h00 às 22h00

horário dos pavilhões 10 am to 10 pm, pavilions opening hours

visitors can acquire a physical memory of their trip through “The whole world in one country”. The content of the exhibition will be divided into four major conceptual areas that merge with the physical structure of the pavilion. It’s worth mentioning the “Experience Area”, divided into two sub-areas, one global, composed of a cyclic multimedia event of great impact, another customizable where the visitor can choose to interact with content and collection on the seven strategic areas where Portugal plays or has ambitions to play a relevant role on the world stage: Aerospace, Science, Blue Economy, Entrepreneurship, Renewable Energy, History and Culture, Tourism and Hospitality. l


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O PROGR AMA QUE PREPAR A EMPRESAS TECNOLÓGICAS

PARA A BOLSA

T H E P R O G R A M T H AT P R E PA R E S T E C H N O L O G I C A L C O M PA N I E S F O R T H E S TO C K M A R K E T

A

5.ª edição do TechShare da Euronext, que teve início em Setembro de 2019, está a decorrer até Maio deste ano. Este programa pan-europeu tem como objectivo informar as empresas tecnológicas quanto às oportunidades que o mercado de capitais oferece e como se podem preparar para um eventual IPO. Esta iniciativa acolhe empresas inovadoras de nove países, onde Portugal está representado com sete empresas tecnológicas, às quais está a ser explicado as vantagens e os requisitos de estar cotado ou de colocar dívida no Mercado de Capitais. Nesta edição da PRÉMIO, além de um texto introdutório de Filipa Franco, Head of Listing da Euronext Lisbon, que nos fala sobre as vantagens do financiamento no mercado de capitais, vamos ficar a conhecer quatro das empresas tecnológicas portuguesas que estão a participar no programa TechShare 2019/2020, que balanço fazem do mesmo e o que pretendem com o programa. A 5ª edição do programa TechShare conta com quatro parceiros institucionais: a sociedade de advogados Morais Leitão, o banco CaixaBank/BPI, a CV&A (Cunha Vaz & Associados) e a Consultora PwC. As empresas interessadas em participar no processo de recrutamento da 6ª edição do Techshare, que irá decorrer em 2020/21, devem entrar em contacto com a Euronext Lisbon ou visitar o website www.euronext.com/en/raise-capital/tech/ techshare, sendo que o período de candidaturas decorre em Abril e Maio. 62

T

he 5th edition of Euronext’s TechShare, which started in September 2019, runs until May this year. This pan-European program aims at informing tech companies about the opportunities offered by capital markets and how they can prepare for an eventual IPO. This year edition welcomes innovative companies from nine countries and Portugal is represented with seven tech companies receiving insights on the advantages and requirements of listing or placing debt on capital markets. In this issue of PRÉMIO, in addition to an introductory text by Filipa Franco, Head of Listing at Euronext Lisbon, informing us on the advantages of capital markets, we will get to know the Portuguese technological companies in this TechShare program 2019/2020 and their balance and expectations as to this program. The 5th edition of the TechShare program has four institutional partners: the law firm Morais Leitão, CaixaBank / BPI banks, CV&A (Cunha Vaz & Associados) and PwC Consultant. Companies wishing to participate in the recruitment process for the 6th edition of Techshare, which will take place in 2020/21, should contact Euronext Lisbon or visit the website www.euronext.com/en/raise-capital/ tech/techshare. The application period runs from April to May.


Para sermos número 1 no mundo bastou-nos pôr o mundo em primeiro lugar

A EDP é líder mundial das utilities integradas e a única empresa portuguesa há 12 anos consecutivos nos Índices de Sustentabilidade Dow Jones.

edp.com 63


TECHSHARE

O QUE PRETENDEM AS TECNOLÓGICAS PORTUGUESAS COM O TECHSHARE? W H AT D O P O RT U G U E S E T E C H N O L O G I E S I N T E N D WITH TECHSHARE? L A N Ç A D O E M 2 0 1 5 , O T E C H S H A R E C O N TA J Á C O M 2 7 5 E M P R E S A S , DA S Q UA I S 2 3 S ÃO P O R T U G U E S A S . F I Q U E A C O N H E C E R Q U AT R O DA S E M P R E S A S P R E S E N T E S N E S TA 5 ª E D I Ç ÃO , D UA S A C T UA M N A Á R E A D E S O F T WA R E / D I G I TA L – P O LY G O N E W E T E K – E O U T R A S D UA S N O S E G M E N T O D E H A R D WA R E / R O B O T I C S E T E L E C O M U N I C A Ç Õ E S - C E L F I N E T E E VA . L AUN CH E D IN 2 0 15, T EC H SH A RE A LREA DY H A S 2 7 5 CO M PA N I E S , O F W H I C H 2 3 A R E P O RT U G U E S E . K N O W F O U R OF THE COM PANIE S PR E S E NT IN T H IS 5T H ED IT IO N, T WO O F W H I C H O P E R AT E I N T H E S O F T WA R E / D I G I TA L A R E A - P O LYGON AN D WETEK - AN D T W O OT H ERS IN T H E H A RDWA RE / RO B OT I C S A N D T E L E CO M M U N I C AT I O N S S E G M E N T - C E L F I N E T A N D EVA.

A Polygon é uma empresa de Cybersecurity e Customer Engagement. “Construímos uma plataforma que permite dotar os nossos clientes de uma solução multicanal e multimodal de identificação e autenticação dos seus utilizadores digitais, designadamente, recorrendo a tecnologias certificadas de validação biométrica com prova de vida, as únicas que garantem a intransmissibilidade de identidade”, explica Alberto Lima, CEO da Polygon. Acrescentando ainda que: “Somos os ‘players’ mais fortes no mercado português e um dos mais promissores em alguns mercados periféricos, numa indústria emergente, em elevado crescimento, que se estima atinja os 13 mil milhões de dólares em 2024”. Relativamente ao programa TechShare, Alberto Lima considera-o muito bom e faz um balanço bastante positivo, desde a enorme disponibilidade da Euronext, ao apoio e preparação empenhada das empresas que colaboram no projecto. “COM E STE P RO GR A M A P R E T E N DE M OS G ANH AR C R E D I B I L I DA D E E F I N A N C I A R O C R E S C I M E NTO PA R A S E TOR NA R U M A R E F E R Ê N C I A N O S EC TO R E P OD ERM OS CONCR E TI Z A R A LGUN S D OS VÁ R I OS P L A N OS E ID EIAS Q U E TE MOS .”

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Polygon is a Cybersecurity and Customer Engagement company. “We built a platform that allows our customers to provide a multichannel and multimodal solution for the identification and authentication of their digital users, namely through the use of certified biometric validation technologies with proof of life, the only that guarantees the non-transferability of identity”, Alberto Lima, CEO of Polygon, explains. He further added: “We are the strongest ‘players’ in the Portuguese market and one of the most promising in some peripheral markets, in an emerging industry, in high growth, estimated to reach US $ 13 billion in 2024”. Regarding the TechShare program, Alberto Lima considers it a very good program and makes a very positive assessment, from the huge availability of Euronext to the support and committed preparation of the companies that collaborate in the project. “WITH THIS PROGRAM WE INTEND TO GAIN CREDIBILITY AND TO FINANCE GROWTH IN ORDER TO BECOME A REFERENCE IN THE SECTOR AND TO ABLE TO IMPLEMENT SOME OF THE MANY S PLANS AND IDEAS THAT WE HAVE.”

E VA

E VA

A EVA (Electric Visionary Aircrafts) é uma das mais ambiciosas ‘startups’ nacionais, pretendendo concorrer com gigantes da aviação. Com um modelo de desenvolvimento que pode ser comparado ao da Tesla, a grande diferença é que a tecnológica abre a sua infraestrutura a outros drones. A EVA está a desenvolver estações para aeronaves não tripuladas, que descolam e aterram na vertical. Estações capazes de interagir com drones em operações de carga e descarga. Além destas estações, a EVA está também a desenvolver um drone de longo alcance dedicado ao transporte de mercadorias.

EVA (Electric Visionary Aircrafts) is one of the most ambitious national startups, intending to compete with aviation giants. With a development model that can be compared to that of Tesla, the big difference is that this tech company opens its infrastructure to other drones. EVA is developing stations for unmanned aircraft, which take off and land vertically. Stations capable of interacting with drones in loading and unloading operations. In addition to these stations, EVA is also developing a long-range drone for freight transport.

“COM O TECHS HA R E , A E VA P R E T E N DE ANG A R IA R F U ND OS PA R A F I N A N C I A R O C R E S C I M E N TO E INTERN ACI ONA L I Z AÇ ÃO.”

“WITH TECH S H A R E, EVA INTENDS TO R AI SE F UNDS TO F INA NCE G ROW TH AND INTERNATIONA L IZATION.”


TECHSHARE

A WeTek é uma empresa portuguesa que actua nos ramos do ‘streaming’ e distribuição de vídeo. Ao longo de cinco anos tem trabalhado a nível internacional com operadoras de cabo/satélite, assim como produtores de conteúdo, no sentido de potenciar os seus mercados e fornecer ferramentas de competitividade. “Esta indústria é caracterizada por uma mutação constante. É o nosso papel estarmos cientes dessas mudanças e sermos agentes catalisadores de outras. Estima-se que a receita total da indústria de ‘streaming’ atinja os US$25,894m até ao final de 2020, com uma projeção de crescimento anual na ordem dos 4,1% até 2024. Em quatro anos espera-se que existam 16,9% de utilizadores desta tecnologia, com uma receita média de US$22.92 por cada utilizador”, refere Hugo Condesa, CEO da WeTek. O responsável pela empresa considera o balanço da participação no TechShare muito positivo, permitindo melhorar a gestão de esforços no lançamento de um IPO e alcançar conhecimentos valiosos sobre posicionamento estratégico. O mesmo acontece com os processos de gestão e registo necessários para a abertura do capital nos mercados financeiros.

WeTek is a Portuguese company operating in the fields of streaming and video distribution. For five years it has worked internationally with cable / satellite operators, as well as content producers, in order to boost their markets and provide tools for competitiveness. “This industry is characterised by constant change. It’s our role to be aware of these changes and to act as catalysts for others. Total streaming industry revenue is estimated to reach $ 25,894m by the end of 2020, with an annual growth projection of around 4.1% through 2024. In four years there will be a estimated 16.9% of users of this technology, with an average revenue of US $ 22.92 per user ”, says Hugo Condesa, WeTek CEO. The person in charge of the company considers the balance of participation in TechShare to be very positive, allowing to improve the management of efforts in the launch of an IPO and to obtain valuable knowledge about strategic positioning. The same happens with the management and registration processes necessary to raise capital in the financial markets.

“E STE P ROG R A M A P E R M I T E E S C A L A R O N OS S O N EG ÓCI O A A LI N HA R OS N OS S OS O B J EC TIV OS D E CR E SCI ME N TO CO M A E X P EC TAT I VA D O ME RC A D O, FACE A UM A E M P R E S A CO M O NOS S O PE R FI L . P R E TE N DE M OS C R I A R P O N T E S CO M OS OU TROS PA Í S E S O N DE O P E R A M OS E GA N H AR C R E D I B I L I DA D E . O T EC HS HA R E É UM C A M INH O C L A RO PA R A O S UC E S S O.”

“TH IS P ROG R AM A L LOWS US TO S C A L E O U R BUS INES S TO A L IG N OUR G ROW TH OBJ ECTI VES WITH TH E M ARK ET ’ S EX P ECTATIONS , CONS ID ERI NG A COM PA NY WITH OUR P ROF IL E. WE INTEND TO CR EATE BRID G ES WITH TH E COUNTRIES WH ER E W E OP ER ATE A ND TO G AIN CRED IBIL IT Y. TECH S H ARE IS A CL EAR PATH TO S UCCES S .”

A Celfinet está no mercado há 16 anos e é uma empresa de base tecnológica que actua na área das aplicações móveis, ajudando os operadores móveis a gerir as suas redes. A empresa desenvolveu também um produto associado para gerir a energia dessas redes. Com presença em vários pontos do globo, a Celfinet considera-se um parceiro de tecnologia credível para os principais operadores móveis do mundo.

Celfinet has been on the market for 16 years and is a technology-based company operating in the field of mobile applications, helping mobile operators to manage their networks. The company has also developed an associated product to manage the energy of these networks. With a presence in various parts of the globe, Celfinet considers itself a credible technology partner for the main mobile operators in the world.

“O OB J ECTI V O DA C E LF I N E T N A PA RT I C I PAÇ ÃO D O TECH SH A R E É R E F O RÇ A R A E ST R AT ÉGI A D E D I V E R SI FI C AÇ ÃO, CO N S O LI DAÇ ÃO DE P RO DUTO E AC TI V I DA D E D E F US Õ E S E AQ UI S I ÇÕ E S .”

“CELFINET’S OBJECTIVE IN TECHSHARE’S PARTICIPATION IS TO REINFORCE THE STRATEGY OF DIVERSIFICATION, PRODUCT CONSOLIDATION AND MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ACTIVITY.”

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TECHSHARE

FILIPA FRANCO, HEAD OF LISTING EURONEXT PORTUGAL

MERCADO DE CAPITAIS: LIBERDADE PARA CRESCER C A P I TA L M A R K E T S : T H E F R E E D O M T O G R O W

A

bolsa confere às empresas cotadas a oportunidade de prosseguir com liberdade a sua estratégia e visão para o desenvolvimento do negócio. Uma liberdade responsável, naturalmente. Que exige prestação de contas a uma base alargada de investidores que investem na empresa e que não interferem na sua gestão (nem querem interferir), mas necessária para que assim possam manter a confiança nas empresas e equipas em que escolheram investir. Parece um contrassenso, bem sei. Sempre que se fala em bolsa, fala-se em requisitos, exigências, custos. Na obrigação de reportar e comunicar ao mercado resultados, perspectivas de negócio, vendas, resultados. E sobretudo em como associado a tudo isso existe ainda a perda de controlo. Na verdade, para os empresários e equipas de gestão que entendem o mercado de capitais e o encaram como uma fonte de financiamento, profissionalização e credibilidade, não só a bolsa é a antítese da perda de controlo como os requisitos associados são, em si, benéficos. A bolsa induz a profissionalização da gestão, a introdução de mecanismos de reporte e a necessidade de explicar de forma clara a inequívoca a estratégia do negócio. A “mera” análise e reflexão internas, antecipando questões dos investidores, é em si geradora de valor. Para além, claro, da avaliação recorrente das decisões 66

S

tock markets offer listed companies the opportunity to freely pursue their strategy and vision, in order to grow their business. Responsible freedom, naturally. This requires accountability towards a wide range of investors who invest in the company and don’t interfere in its management (nor do they want to interfere), accountability which is necessary so that they can maintain confidence in the companies and teams they have chosen to invest in. It seems contradictory, I know. Whenever people discuss about stock markets, they talk about requirements and costs. On the obligation to report and communicate results to the market, business prospects, sales, results. And above all, about losing control. In fact, for entrepreneurs and management teams who understand capital markets and see it as a source of funding, improving management competences and credibility, not only is the stock market the antithesis of loss of control, but the associated requirements are themselves beneficial. The stock market induces the professionalisation of management, the introduction of reporting mechanisms and the need to clearly explain the company’s business strategy. The internal analysis and reflection that is stimulated alone, anticipating investor questions, creates value. In addition, of course, to the recurring assessment of the decisions made that quickly allow the management team to identify - and thus


TECHSHARE

CL ARO QUE O C UMPR IMENTO DE REGR AS DE REP O RTE R EV EL A UM A M A I OR DI S CI PL INA DE G ESTÃO, M A S E M S I , P ODE SIG NIFIC A R P O UCO.

tomadas que permitem rapidamente identificar – e assim corrigir – decisões que se revelam afinal erradas. Existe ainda o aspecto reputacional que não pode ser ignorado. Claro que o cumprimento de regras de reporte revela uma maior disciplina de gestão, mas em si, pode significar pouco. Relevante é a confiança implícita na decisão de investimento destes investidores que assinala ao mercado a capacidade da empresa e da sua gestão na geração de valor. O mercado de capitais assenta pois em duas ideias e conceitos fundamentais e intimamente relacionados: confiança e diversificação. E compreendendo esta dinâmica, compreende-se o seu funcionamento, os seus requisitos (formais e informais), os benefícios e oportunidades que oferece às empresas e em última análise a sua relevância para o desenvolvimento das economias. A confiança do mercado nas empresas cotadas traduz-se na sua capacidade de obter no mercado o financiamento necessário, no momento necessário, para prosseguir com liberdade a sua estratégia e visão de desenvolvimento do negócio. E essa liberdade é incomparável. l

COMPLIANCE WITH REPORTING R U L E S D O E S I M P LY A G R E AT E R D I S C I P L I N E F R O M M A N A G E M E N T, B U T I S N O T T H A T M E A N I N G F U L I T S E L F.

correct - decisions that turn out to be wrong. Furthermore, we should also consider the reputational aspect. Compliance with reporting rules does imply a greater discipline from management, but is not that meaningful itself. Of greater relevance is the implicit trust in the investment decisions of capital markets’ investors, as it sends a positive signal to the market on the company’s ability to generate value. Capital markets are thus grounded on two fundamental and closely related ideas and concepts: trust and diversification. And once this dynamic is understood, the workings, requirements (formal and informal), benefits and opportunities that capital markets offer to companies and, ultimately, their relevance for the development of economies, become clear. The markets’ confidence in listed companies is thus clearly reflected on their ability to obtain the necessary funding at the right time, to freely pursue their strategy and vision of business development. And that freedom is unparalleled. l

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A ESSÊNCIA DE MUITOS PÚBLICOS

DO VINHO THE ESSENCE OF MANY WINE AUDIENCES

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(Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


NUNO BOTELHO, DIRECTOR ESSÊNCIA DO VINHO

É

reconfortante verificar como ao longo dos anos “a principal experiência do vinho em Portugal” consegue aprimorar-se. Essência do Vinho – Porto, que decorreu em fevereiro no Palácio da Bolsa, aportou uma nova linguagem ao setor, aproximando-o sobretudo de novos consumidores, de faixas etárias rejuvenescidas. Fidelizou esses públicos cada vez mais curiosos e exigentes, que viajam pelo mundo e que pretendem captar as novas tendências desse outro mundo, não menos fascinante, que é o vinho. No balanço da 17ª edição um dado importa sublinhar – foram registadas 28 nacionalidades diferentes por entre os visitantes, sendo que 72,8% dos estrangeiros deslocaram-se propositadamente ao Porto para visitar o evento (um aumento de 6,2 pontos percentuais face a 2019). Os dados constam do estudo de públicos e de impacto económico efetuado, no decorrer do Essência do Vinho – Porto 2020, pelo ISAG – Instituto Superior de Administração e Gestão – European Business School. De acordo com o documento, 32% dos visitantes estiveram

I

t’s comforting to see how “the main wine experience in Portugal” has improved over the years. Essência do Vinho - Porto, which took place in February at Palácio da Bolsa, has brought in a new language to this sector, bringing it closer particularly to new consumers from rejuvenated age groups. It has been able to retain increasingly curious and demanding audiences who travel the world in order to discover new trends in this other world, no less fascinating, which is wine. As regards the balance of the 17th edition, it is worth mentioning the number of visitors from 28 different nationalities and 72.8% foreigners who travelled to Porto just to visit the event (a 6.2 percentage points increase compared to 2019). The data are contained in the audiences and economic impact study carried out during Essência do Vinho - Porto 2020 by ISAG - Instituto Superior de Administração e Gestão - European Business School. According to the document, 32% of visitors attended the event for professional reasons, a growth of 4.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. Spaniards, Brazilians,

O E V E N T O D E C O R R E U E M F E V E R E I R O N O PA L ÁC I O DA B O L S A , P O R T O T H E E V E N T S T O O K P L A C E I N F E B R U A R Y AT P A L Á C I O D A B O L S A , O P O R T O

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no evento por motivos profissionais, um crescimento de 4,2 pontos percentuais perante o ano anterior. Espanhóis, brasileiros, alemães, ingleses, franceses e norte-americanos destacam-se. Sim, Essência do Vinho – Porto consegue agregar profissionais, entusiastas e curiosos por vinho, uma combinação difícil de equilibrar e que tem ajudado sobremaneira a diferenciar o evento não apenas no calendário nacional mas, sobretudo, no contexto europeu. Os meios digitais (44,7%) e a recomendação passa-palavra (39,1%) foram as principais formas de divulgação junto dos visitantes, tendo o grau de satisfação com o evento aumentado para 4,58 (numa escala de 1 a 5). Por entre o total de visitantes, 78,8% revelaram a intenção de regressar no próximo ano. O cálculo de impacto económico gerado da cidade, com destaque nos setores da hotelaria e restauração, mantém-se nos níveis da edição anterior, ou seja, a rondar os 3,5 milhões de euros. Como organizadores, empreendemos um investimento significativo para trazer até ao evento comitivas internacionais de jornalistas, críticos, ‘sommeliers’ e importadores de dezenas de mercados externos. Porquê? Por acreditarmos que conhecendo na origem os artífices dos grandes vinhos portugueses, quem nos visita tornar-se-á um embaixador mais convicto de Portugal no mundo. E hoje, mais do que nunca, o vinho português vive momentos empolgantes de criatividade e de afirmação, que merecem ser enaltecidos e propalados por uma diversidade de líderes de opinião e de atores do comércio mundial. Essência do Vinho – Porto estará de regresso ao Palácio da Bolsa de 25 a 28 de fevereiro de 2021, uma 18ª edição que promete um programa memorável para assinalar o marco da maioridade. O setor merece que assim o façamos, os nossos públicos exigem-no. l

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Germans, English, French and Americans stood out among the wide range of international visitors. Yes, Essência do Vinho - Porto managed to bring together professionals, enthusiasts and people curious about wine, a combination that is difficult to balance and which helped differentiating the event not only in the national calendar but, above all, in the European context. The digital media (44.7%) and word-of-mouth recommendations (39.1%) were the main means of dissemination to visitors and the level of satisfaction as regards the event increased to 4.58 (on a scale of 1 to 5). And, among the total number of visitors, 78.8% stated their intention to return next year. As regards the economic impact generated in the city, especially in the hotel and restaurant sectors, the levels equal those of the previous edition, that is, around 3.5 million euros. As organizers, we undertook a significant investment to bring international delegations of journalists, critics, sommeliers and importers from dozens of foreign markets to the event. Why? Because we believe that after knowing the origin of the great Portuguese wines those who visit us will become firm ambassadors of Portugal in the world. And today, more than ever, Portuguese wine is experiencing exciting moments of creativity and affirmation that should be praised and promoted by a wide range of opinion leaders and actors in world trade. Essência do Vinho - Porto will be back at Palácio da Bolsa from 25 to 28 February 2021 and we are preparing and we are preparing an 18th edition with an outstanding program to mark the coming of age of this event. The sector deserves it and our audiences are asking for it. l


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PRIMรRIAS EUA USA PRIMARIES

AS JOGADAS PAR A TR AVAR SANDERS THE POWERPLAYS TO STOP SANDERS

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FILIPE TELES, JORNALISTA DO JORNAL SOL J O U R N A L I S T O F W E E K LY N E W S PA P E R S O L

J O G A DA S N O S B A S T I D O R E S D E M O C R ATA S PA R A E V I TA R A N O M E A Ç Ã O D O S E N A D O R D O VERMONT BERNIE SANDERS JÁ DURAM HÁ MUITO. NO DIA A SEGUIR À VITÓRIA DE JOE BIDEN N A S U P E R T E R Ç A - F E I R A , O M E R C A D O B O L S I S T A D E N O VA I O R Q U E S U B I U D E P O I S D E D I A S CONTURBADOS. M O V E S B E H I N D T H E S C E N E S B Y T H E D E M O C R A T S I N O R D E R T O AV O I D T H E A P P O I N T M E N T O F V E R M O N T S E N A T O R B E R N I E S A N D E R S H AV E B E E N G O I N G O N F O R S O M E T I M E . T H E D A Y A F T E R J O E B I D E N ’ S V I C T O R Y O N S U P E R T U E S D A Y, T H E N E W Y O R K S T O C K M A R K E T R O S E , A F T E R S O M E T R O U B L E D DAY S .

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vitória de Joe Biden na Super Terça-Feira surpreendeu tudo e todos. Em poucos dias, o ex-vice-presidente passou de uma campanha fúnebre para o favorito a ganhar a nomeação presidencial. Mas também foi o resultado de muitas manobras de bastidores que trabalharam para provocar uma convenção contestada e evitar a nomeação de Bernie Sanders, o socialista democrático. Começou antes, mas clarificou-se com a vitória de Biden nas primárias da Carolina do Sul, no passado dia 29 de fevereiro. As desistências de Peter Buttigieg, ex-mayor de South Bend, Indiana, e da senadora do Minnesota Amy Klobuchar e consequente apoio de ambos a Biden foi um golpe esperado mas genial e com resultados imediatos. A rapidez da formação da coligação centrista – Buttigieg falou com Barack Obama no dia 1 de março e Klobuchar teve que desmentir notícias que relatavam pressões internas para desistir – e do encerramento de fileiras à volta de Biden, um dia antes da maior noite eleitoral das primárias (1357 delegados em disputa), surpreendeu a campanha do senador do Vermont. Faiz Shakir, gestor de campanha de Sanders, resumiu bem em entrevista ao “New York Times” no dia 2 de março à noite. “Antecipámos sempre que haveria uma consolidação do lado do ‘establishment’”, começou por dizer. “Uma coisa é saber que vai acontecer. E outra coisa é ver isso acontecer de forma tão rápida”. E não pôde deixar de acrescentar: “Há uma razão pela qual o ‘establishment’ tem poder: preserva poder e conserva poder”. Não muitos dias antes da Super Terça-Feira, no dia 27 de fevereiro, o “New York Times” entrevistou líderes da

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oe Biden’s victory on Super Tuesday surprised everyone. In a few days, the former vice president went from a funereal campaign to become favourite in the presidential nomination. But it was also the result of manoeuvres behind the scenes that were there to cause a contested convention and avoid the appointment of Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist. It started earlier, but it became clear after Biden’s victory in the South Carolina primaries on the 29 th of February. The withdrawals of Peter Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and the resulting support of both to Biden resulted in an expected but brilliant blow as regards immediate results. The fast speed of action among the centre coalition Buttigieg spoke to Barack Obama on the 1 st of March and Klobuchar had to deny news that reported internal pressure to withdraw - and the closing of ranks around Biden, the day before the biggest electoral night of the primaries (1357 delegates under dispute), surprised the Vermont senator’s campaign. Faiz Shakir, Sanders’ campaign manager, summed it up well in an interview with The New York Times on the 2 nd of March night. “We always anticipated that there would be a consolidation on the side of the establishment,” he began by saying. “It’s one thing to know what’s going to happen. And another thing is to see it happen so quickly”. And he could not help adding: “There is a reason why the establishment has power: it preserves power and it retains power”. Not many days before Super Tuesday, on February 27, the New York Times interviewed Democratic top leaders, including 93 super delegates, who are decisive if there is 73


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OBAMA DISSE QUE PODIA INTERVIR CASO SANDERS ESTIVESSE PRÓXIMO DA NOMEAÇÃO. cúpula do Partido Democrata, incluindo 93 super delegados, determinantes caso haja uma convenção contestada: os super delegados são políticos com direito a participar na convenção do partido por virtude do seu cargo, não sendo eleitos (ver pág. seguinte). Título do artigo do diário nova-iorquino? “Líderes democratas dispostos a danificar o partido para travar Bernie Sanders”. Apenas nove dos 93 super delegados entrevistados (no total, são 771) responderam que dariam a nomeação a Sanders no caso de este chegar ao número mágico – 1991 – para ganhar a nomeação antes da convenção do partido. Ou seja, mesmo que Sanders fique em primeiro em número de delegados e votos, os líderes partidários não lhe dariam a nomeação e estão dispostos a arriscar dar uma imagem de um partido antidemocrático para esse efeito, além dos danos intrapartidários. “A presidente da Câmara dos Representantes, Nancy Pelosi, e o Senador Chuck Schummer ouvem avisos constantes de aliados sobre derrotas no Congresso em novembro [há eleições para o Senado e Câmara dos Representantes este ano] se o partido nomear Bernie Sanders para Presidente. Os membros democratas da Câmara dos Representantes compartilham os medos de Sanders em mensagens. Bill Clinton, em telefonemas com velhos amigos, suspira no caso de o partido ser aniquilado nas eleições gerais”, lê-se no artigo do “New York Times”. No dia 12 de fevereiro, o “Intercept” relatou uma conversa entre Pelosi e Ralph Nader, um dos políticos mais odiados pelos apoiantes de Pelosi, segundo o ‘site’. Ao “Intercept”, Nader disse que a candidatura do multimilionário Michael Bloomberg – que entretanto desistiu, tal como Elizabeth Warren – teve como ponto central o aglomerar esforços para bloquear a possibilidade de Sanders se tornar o nomeado. “É tempo para o Armagedão para o Partido Democrata”, disse. Mas as jogadas de bastidores começaram muito antes do tiro de partida das primárias. Por exemplo, em novembro, o “Político” noticiou que Barack Obama, que permanece neutral como é tradição para os ex-presidentes, indicou no foro privado que falaria publicamente, quebrando a convenção, para travar a nomeação de Bernie Sanders. Biden saiu da Super Terça-feira à frente do senador do Vermont contra todas as expectativas. E Wall Street agradeceu: o valor de mercado da bolsa de valores de Nova Iorque subiu no dia a seguir à sua vitória, depois de dias conturbados devido ao coronavírus. No final do dia, a S&P 500 subiu 4%. Comparando com Sanders, “o aumento de impostos proposto por Biden é relativamente modesto, este apoia uma regulamentação leve e irá perseguir uma linha muito mais suave em relação às tarifas aduaneiras”, escreveu num ‘email’ aos seus clientes Michael Pearce, um economista da Capital Economics, citado pelo “New York Times”. Não surpreende que a elite democrata prefira o ex-vice-presidente. l 74

O B A M A S A I D T H AT H E C O U L D INTERVENE IF SANDERS IS CLOSE T O B E N O M I N AT E D . a contested convention: super delegates are politicians entitled to participate in the party’s convention by virtue of their office and are not elected (see next page). And what was the title of the article on the New York daily newspaper? - “Democratic leaders willing to risk party damage to stop Bernie Sanders.” Only nine of the 93 super delegates interviewed (there are 771 in total) responded that they would give Sanders the nomination in case he reached the magic number - 1991 - to win the nomination before the party’s convention. That is, even if Sanders ranks first in number of delegates and votes, party leaders would not give him the nomination and are willing to risk giving an image of an undemocratic party for this purpose, in addition to the intraparty damages. “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schummer hear constant warnings from allies about defeats in Congress in November [there are elections for the Senate and House of Representatives this year] if the party nominates Bernie Sanders as President. Democratic members of the House of Representatives share Sanders’ fears in messages. Bill Clinton, on phone calls with old friends, sighs in case the party is annihilated in the general elections”, reads the New York Times article. On February 12, “Intercept” reported a conversation between Pelosi and Ralph Nader, one of the politicians most hated by Pelosi’s supporters, according to the website. Nader told the “Intercept” that the candidacy of multimillionaire Michael Bloomberg - who in the meantime gave up, as did Elizabeth Warren - had as a central point the agglomeration of efforts to block the possibility of Sanders becoming the nominee. “It’s Armageddon time at the Democratic Party,” he said. But manoeuvres behind the scenes began long before the primaries’ starting shot. For example, in November, “Politico” reported that Barack Obama, who remains neutral as is the tradition in the case of former presidents, stated in private that he would speak publicly, breaking the convention, to halt the appointment of Bernie Sanders. Biden left Super Tuesday ahead of the Vermont senator against all expectations. And Wall Street thanked: the market value of the New York Stock Exchange rose the day after his victory, after troubled days due to the coronavirus. At the end of the day, the S&P 500 rose 4%. Comparing with Sanders, “the tax increase proposed by Biden is relatively modest, supports light regulation and will pursue a much smoother line in relation to customs tariffs,” Michael Pearce, an economist at Capital Economics, quoted by the “New York Times” wrote in an email to his clients. It’s not surprising that the Democratic elite prefers the former vice president. l


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O QUE É UMA CONVENÇÃO “ C O N T E S TA DA” ? W H AT I S A “ C O N T E S T E D ” C O N V E N T I O N ?

N O C A S O D E N E N H U M C A N D I D AT O D E M O C R ATA A R R E C A D A R 1 9 9 1 D E L E G A D O S N A S P R I M Á R I A S , H AV E R Á U M A C O N V E N Ç Ã O “ C O N T E S TA D A”. I N T H E E V E N T T H AT N O D E M O C R AT I C C A N D I DAT E G E T S 1 9 9 1 D E L E G AT E S I N T H E P R I M A R I E S , THERE WILL BE A “CONTESTED” CONVENTION.

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FILIPE TELES, JORNALISTA DO JORNAL SOL J O U R N A L I S T O F W E E K LY N E W S PA P E R S O L

m todos os ciclos eleitorais para escolher a nomeação presidencial, fala-se na possibilidade de uma convenção “contestada”. No Partido Democrata, a última vez que isto aconteceu foi em 1952. Embora seja muito raro, este ano pode mesmo vir a a ocorrer pela primeira vez em quase 70 anos, tendo em conta as sondagens. Mas o que é que isso significa? Trocando por miúdos: as primárias do Partido Democrata alocam este ano 3979 delegados. Estes delegados são distribuídos proporcionalmente conforme os estados (e territórios) e depois repartidos consoante os resultados de cada candidato nas primárias e ‘caucuses’. Na maior parte dos casos, um concorrente só ganha o prémio (ou parte dele) se atingir o patamar mínimo de 15% dos votos. Por exemplo, nas primárias da Carolina do Norte, onde ainda estão 60 delegados por distribuir segundo o “New York Times”, o ex-vice-presidente, Joe Biden, obteve 43% dos votos, e, consequentemente, foram-lhe atribuídos 35 delegados. O senador do Vermont Bernie Sanders ficou-se pelos 24,1% e tem, até agora, 15 delegados. Mesmo com 170 mil votos e 10,8%, a senadora do Massachussetts Elizabeth Warren não será premiada com nenhum delegado porque não chegou aos 15% neste estado. Entretanto, desistiu. Mas se nenhum candidato aglomerar o número mágico que configura a maioria de delegados – 1991 – até ao fim das primárias, marcado para o dia 6 de junho nas Ilhas Virgens, a decisão fica à responsabilidade da convenção do partido, no dia 13 de julho, no Milwaukee. É a comummente conhecida convenção “contestada”, pois normalmente fica tudo decidido bem antes deste dia e, muitas vezes, nem há votação: nomeia-se o candidato presidencial por aclamação. E o que é que acontece neste caso? Há uma primeira ronda de votos. Não havendo nenhum candidato, novamente, com os 1991 votos, passa-se para a segunda ronda e entram em cena os “super delegados” – e o número de delegados necessários para ganhar a nomeação aumenta para 2375. E é aqui que começa a controvérsia. Os super delegados são conhecidos como os delegados “automáticos”, por não serem eleitos. São escolhidos pelos líderes partidários democratas e, este ano, são 771. Podem ser políticos locais, membros do Comité Nacional Democrata (mais de 400), antigos presidentes (incluindo os vices) ou políticos eleitos para o Congresso. Resumidamente, são pessoas a quem é atribuído o direito de participar na convenção por virtude do seu cargo. Já os (só) delegados têm liberdade de voto, mas convencionalmente estão ligados aos candidatos pelos quais foram eleitos e costumam votar conforme essa “obrigação”. Quando a

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n every electoral cycle to choose the presidential nomination there is talk of the possibility of a “contested” convention. In the Democratic Party, the last time this happened was in 1952. Although it’s very rare, this year it may occur for the first time in almost 70 years, taking into account the polls. But what does this mean? In summary: Democratic Party primaries this year allocate 3979 delegates. These delegates are distributed proportionally according to the states (and territories) and then divided according to the results of each candidate in the primaries and caucuses. In most cases, a competitor only wins the prize (or part of it) if he reaches the minimum level of 15% of the votes. For example, in the North Carolina primaries, where there are still 60 delegates left to distribute according to The New York Times, former Vice President Joe Biden obtained 43% of the vote, and as a result, he was allocated 35 delegates. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders stood at 24.1% and has, so far, 15 delegates. Even with 170,000 votes and 10.8%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren will not be awarded any delegates because she has not reached 15% in this state. And she gave up in the meantime. But if no candidate agglomerates the magic number that makes up the majority of delegates - 1991 - by the end of the primaries, scheduled for June 6 in the Virgin Islands, the decision rests with the party convention, on July 13, in Milwaukee. It’s the commonly known “contested” convention, as everything is usually decided well before this day and often there is not even voting: the presidential candidate is nominated by acclamation. And what happens under these circumstances? There is a first round of votes. If there is again no candidate, with the 1991 votes we move on to the second round and the “super delegates” come on the scene - and the number of delegates needed to win the nomination increases to 2375. And this is where the controversy begins. Super delegates are known as “automatic” delegates, as they are not elected. They are chosen by Democratic Party leaders, and this year there are 771. They can be local politicians, members of the Democratic National Committee (more than 400), former presidents (including vice presidents) or politicians elected to the Congress. In short, they are people who are given the right to participate in the convention by virtue of their position. As for the delegates (only), on the other hand, they have the freedom to vote, but they are usually linked to the candidates for whom they were elected and usually vote according to that “obligation”. When the nomination is achieved, that is, when 77


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F I M DA S P R I M Á R I A S E S TÁ M A R C A D O PA R A 6 D E J U N H O , NAS ILHAS VIRGENS. nomeação está entregue, ou seja, quando um candidato já ultrapassou o “número mágico”, a identidade dos delegados não interessa muito. Mas quando isso não acontece, entram os enredos complexos de cálculos políticos, trocas de favores e de cargos (como a vice-presidência). A partir daí, a sua identidade conta muito: quem são, de onde vêm, que visões políticas têm. Muitos dos delegados podem ser eleitos por candidatos que já não se encontram na corrida – até agora, são 81 – e quando isso acontece, têm (toda) a liberdade de se “deslocarem” para os candidatos que mais vão ao encontro dos seus princípios, interesses ou objetivos. Os super delegados são livres de votar no candidato que quiserem. Tradicionalmente, estão alinhados com a cúpula – ou o ‘establishment’ – do Partido Democrata, a ala centrista. Só que existência de super delegados, por si só, está no seio das críticas de falta de democracia no partido. Imaginemos que o senador independente Bernie Sanders tem o maior número de delegados (mas não os 1991), com uma vantagem relativamente considerável em relação a Joe Biden, e a maioria dos votos nas primárias. Pode ser-lhe negada a nomeação pela cúpula partidária e esta ser entregue ao ex-vice-presidente, pelos votos dos super delegados. Na última convenção democrata, os super delegados tinham o direito de votar na primeira ronda, mas depois da chuva de críticas de Sanders e seus aliados e apoiantes, o Comité Nacional Democrata alterou as regras em 2018 e retirou-lhes algum poder. É que na altura em que o senador socialista democrático enfrentou Hillary Clinton, em 2016, os super delegados estavam praticamente todos alinhados com a antiga senadora de Nova Iorque, antes de os números estarem clarificados. Quando no debate do Nevada, há umas semanas, o moderador questionou os candidatos se apoiariam a pessoa com mais votos e maior número de delegados, mesmo sem os 1991, cinco disseram que não. E um disse que sim. Foi Sanders. l 78

THE END OF PRIMARIES IS SET FOR 6TH JUNE, IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. a candidate has already exceeded the “magic number”, the identity of the delegates doesn’t matter much. But when that doesn’t happen, the complex plots of political calculations, exchanges of favours and positions (like the vice-presidency) come into play. From then on, their identity counts a lot: who they are, where they come from, what political views they share. Many of the delegates can be elected by candidates who are no longer in the race - so far, there are 81 - and when that happens, they are (completely) free to “move” to candidates who meet their principles, interests or goals the most. Super delegates are free to vote for the candidate they want. Traditionally, they are aligned with the top - or the ‘establishment’ - of the Democratic Party, the centre wing. However, the existence of super delegates, in itself, is at the heart of criticisms as to the lack of democracy in the party. Imagine that independent senator Bernie Sanders has the largest number of delegates (but not 1991), with a relatively considerable advantage over Joe Biden, and the majority of votes in the primaries. He may be denied the nomination by the party leadership and the nomination will be passed on to the former vice president through the votes of the super delegates. At the last Democratic convention, super delegates had the right to vote in the first round, but after the huge criticism from Sanders and his allies and supporters, the Democratic National Committee changed the rules in 2018 and removed some power from them. When the democratic socialist senator contended Hillary Clinton in 2016, the super delegates were practically all aligned with the former New York senator, before the numbers were clarified. When in the Nevada debate a few weeks ago, the moderator questioned whether candidates would support the person with the most votes and the most delegates, even without the 1991, five said no. And one said yes. That person was Sanders. l


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ELES CHAMAM-LHE ÁFRICA, NÓS CHAMAMOS-LHE LAR THEY CALL IT AFRICA, WE CALL IT HOME

FOTO C E D I DA P O R J N B

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JOSÉ DE NORONHA BRANDÃO, ASSOCIATE PARTNER CV&A

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oje África tem aproximadamente 1,2 mil milhões de pessoas e em 2050 estima-se que atinja os 2,4 mil milhões – ultrapassando a República Popular da China, e o maior recurso deste continente é a uma população jovem, cheia de energia, criatividade e resiliência, ávida por construir futuros, muitos futuros e cheios de energia. O século XXI pode dar lugar ao renascimento africano se houver um desenvolvimento prioritário das pessoas através de investimento, em particular investimento nos jovens. Garantir que os jovens de África tenham acesso aos cuidados de saúde, educação e preparação para o futuro, é a melhor forma de se mudar a imagem de pobreza endémica e contribuir para a estabilidade e prosperidade não só do continente, mas do mundo. Já é altura de promover que cada geografia atinja estabilidade social, económica e política. As implicações sociais, políticas e económicas de grande alcance para o resto do mundo e, em particular, para a Europa, são enormes, por afinidade e proximidade. Neste imenso continente, há um país enorme, quase 14 vezes maior que Portugal, e recordando a música de Matias Damásio, “vou mostrar-vos uma nova terra, agora sem guerra, Angola do meu coração”. Angola tem apostado no desenvolvimento de estratégias de médio e longo prazo para convergir investimento nacional e estrangeiro no país que

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frica currently has around 1.2 billion people and by 2050 it is estimated to reach 2.4 billion - more than the Popular Republic of China - and the continent’s greatest resource is its young population, full of energy, creativity and resilience, eager to build futures, many futures and full of energy. The 21st century can lead to an African renaissance if the main focus is the development of people through investment, in particular investment in young people. Ensuring that young people in Africa have access to health care, education and are prepared for the future is the best way to change the image of endemic poverty and contribute to the stability and prosperity not only of the continent, but of the world. It’s time to make sure that each geography reaches social, economic and political stability. The farreaching social, political and economic implications for the rest of the world and, in particular, for Europe, are enormous from both an affinity and proximity perspective. In this huge continent, there is a huge country, almost 14 times bigger than Portugal, and remembering the music of Matias Damásio, “I will show you a new land, now without war, Angola of my heart”. Angola has been betting on the development of medium and long term strategies to converge national and foreign investment in this country with high hopes of becoming a major

FOTO CEDIDA P OR JNB LUANDA

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INTERNACIONAL ANGOLA mais esperança apresenta em se tornar um produtor de peso de energia eléctrica, um celeiro geográfico, um destino turístico de características únicas, um peso pesado na agroindústria, na indústria das bebidas, plataforma de passagem de mercadorias e bens de consumo, um centro geográfico logístico, uma ponte com a Europa via Portugal, uma ponte com a América do Sul via Brasil e Cuba, uma ponte com a Ásia via China, enfim, são tantos os macrocenários e os caminhos de desenvolvimento no que pode revelar-se um país que vai desafiar muito em breve todos os índices de desenvolvimento. As abrangentes reformas do Presidente João Lourenço permitiram ao país embarcar numa missão de atrair investimento directo estrangeiro. A campanha global de carácter diplomático, historicamente um evento de investimento único, visa a transformação de fluxos de capital em projectos reais, com as iniciativas a serem apresentadas aos investidores de uma forma maior, em escala, dimensão e prestígio. A entrada no mercado, a facilidade de fazer negócios em Angola, a digitalização e a enorme adesão às tecnologias, que permitem colocar a gestão do país ao nível das melhores práticas internacionais. Angola abraçou o ambicioso programa para diversificar a economia, tornando-a menos dependente do sector do petróleo, e para melhorar o ambiente de negócios no país, objectivo para o qual têm sido vitais as medidas de combate à corrupção e saneamento das finanças públicas. Apostar em áreas que aparentemente são menos interessantes, como a educação e a saúde, representam afinal uma alavanca para o desenvolvimento social, estabilidade e criação de emprego. Os esforços de diversificação económica – atraindo novos tipos de turistas e procurando desenvolver o sector agrícola, agro-industrial e das pescas, a procura de investimentos sustentáveis que promovam o crescimento, enquanto mitigam a sua exposição aos efeitos das alterações climáticas, nomeadamente através do desenvolvimento da “economia azul”. Angola está determinada a aumentar os fluxos de comércio e investimento no âmbito da SADC (Southern African Development Community), com os países das regiões em que se insere – e que em alguns casos incluem as maiores economias do continente –

producer of electricity, a geographical granary, a tourist destination with unique characteristics, a heavy weight in the agribusiness, in the beverage sector, a platform for the flow of goods and consumer goods, a geographic logistics centre, a bridge with Europe via Portugal, a bridge with South America via Brazil and Cuba, a bridge with Asia via China. In short, there are so many macroscenarios and development pathways in this country that it may soon challenge all development indices. President João Lourenço’s comprehensive reforms allowed the country to embark on a mission to attract foreign direct investment. The global diplomatic campaign, historically a unique investment event, aims at transforming capital flows into real projects, with initiatives to be presented to investors in a large scale, dimension and prestige. Market entry, the ease of doing business in Angola, digitisation and the huge adherence to technologies allow the country’s management to equal the best international practices. Angola embraced the ambitious program to diversify the economy, making it less dependent on the oil sector, and to improve the business environment in the country, an objective for which measures to combat corruption and sanitation of public finances have played a crucial role. Betting on areas that are apparently less interesting, such as education and healthcare, ultimately represent a lever for social development, stability and job creation. It is worth mentioning the efforts towards economic diversification - attracting new types of tourists and seeking to develop the agricultural, agro-industrial and fisheries sector, the search for sustainable investments that promote growth, while mitigating their exposure to the effects of climate change, namely through development of the “blue economy”. Angola is focused on increasing trade and investment flows within SADC, with countries in the regions it is part of - and in some cases including the continent’s largest economies - as well as with extra-African markets. Angola is showing itself to the world as an investment destination with growing potential and the world has set the eyes on it and shown its interest. Having identified the political and economic

AP OSTAR EM ÁREAS QUE APARENTEMENT E SÃO M ENOS INTERESSANTES, COM O A EDUCAÇÃO E A SAÚDE, REPRESENTAM AFINAL UM A AL AVAN C A PAR A O DESENVOLVIM ENTO SOCIAL , ESTABIL IDADE E CRIAÇÃO DE EM PREG O.

BETTING ON AREAS THAT ARE APPARENTLY L ESS INTERESTING, SUCH AS EDUCATION AND HEALTHCARE, ULTIM ATELY REPRESENT A L EVER FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPM ENT, STABIL IT Y AND JOB CREATION. 82


Um Mundo de Inspiração

Fundado por Manuel António da Mota em 29 de junho de 1946, o Grupo Mota-Engil traçou nos últimos 73 anos um percurso de constante crescimento, diversificação de atividades e expansão internacional, marcados por uma cultura de empreendedorismo e inovação na procura permanente de novos horizontes.

Um percurso que nos orgulha e que nos motiva para um futuro que nos desafia.

Antamina PERU

Barragem de Calueque ANGOLA

Via rápida S8 Wroclaw POLÓNIA

Estrada Tuxpan Tampico MÉXICO

Central de Valorização Energética PORTUGAL

Corredor de Nacala MALAWI

Linha Ferroviária do Sena MOÇAMBIQUE

Ponte Base Kassuende MOÇAMBIQUE

Oceanário de Lisboa PORTUGAL

Acsiopolis ÁFRICA DO SUL

Barragem do Foz Tua PORTUGAL

Linha Ferroviária Wielicka-Lipska POLÓNIA

Estrada de Cusco Quillabamba PERU

Douro Interior PORTUGAL

Great East Road ZÂMBIA

Metro de Guadalajara MÉXICO

Baía de Luanda ANGOLA

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INTERNACIONAL ANGOLA FOTO CEDIDA P OR JNB

assim como com mercados extra-africanos. Angola mostra-se ao mundo como destino de investimento com crescente potencial e o mundo tomou atenção e registou interesse. Identificadas as dificuldades políticas e económicas que não deixam de afectar, em diferentes medidas, as empresas estrangeiras, não podem, no entanto, constituir impedimento para se arriscar. O investimento, afinal, é a consciência do risco, sem que o risco impeça de se avançar. Há uma nova vaga de empreendedorismo em África, que necessita de um ecossistema de capital de risco para desenvolver o continente. Levar a tecnologia a mudar a natureza do trabalho e a fronteira de competências a mover-se rapidamente trazendo consigo oportunidades. Há uma grande nova vaga de empreendedorismo em África, de fundos de capital de risco, e estamos a apostar e a investir na criação de um ecossistema de capital de risco. As duas grandes áreas apresentam-se com as energias renováveis e a agricultura nos países África Subsariana, onde Angola se encontra, sendo uma região importante para a Europa, do ponto de vista estratégico. O grande foco está na área das mudanças climáticas e na medição do impacto dos projectos. Outra das áreas onde se deve continuar a apostar é na Saúde, desenvolver capacidades internas para financiar a pesquisa clínica sobre as doenças negligenciadas, ou seja, aquelas que não são rentáveis para a indústria farmacêutica, e que por isso não recebem financiamento suficiente para transformar a pesquisa em medicamentos. E tudo isto à distância da vontade dos investidores, pois um país sozinho não muda tudo. Parceiros, dinheiro, estratégia e visão, tudo aliado à informação, ideias, e inteligência, ou seja, a economia dos três “is”. Vinte e cinco dos trinta países mais pobres do mundo estão em África. Mudar esta realidade assenta na vontade, que por sua vez assenta no conhecimento e leva, finalmente, ao investimento. Olhar novamente para um continente que tem tanto ainda para oferecer, população, juventude, recursos, espaço e com áreas onde o retorno é imenso: Agricultura, Pecuária e Silvicultura, Indústrias de Manufactura e Processamento, Pescas e Aquicultura, incluindo processamento de peixes, apoio à construção e habitação, cuidados de saúde (medicina preventiva, indústria farmacêutica, etc.), Educação - regular e técnico-profissional, Transportes e Telecomunicações, Hospitalidade e Turismo e, por fim, Tecnologia. Podemos reinventar um mundo novo, com melhores políticas socioeconómicas e ambientais, se estivermos dispostos, sem mudar de país, a mudar de continente! Eles chamam-lhe África, nós chamamos-lhe lar. l 84

O T U R I S M O , É O U T R A D A S A P O S TA P A R A O D E S E N V O L V I M E N T O D E A N G O L A TOURISM IS ANOTHER BET FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANGOLA

difficulties that still affect foreign companies in different ways, these cannot, however, become an impediment to taking risks. Investment, after all, is the awareness of risk, without the risk preventing progress to be made. There is a new wave of entrepreneurship in Africa, which needs a venture capital ecosystem to develop the continent. Bringing technology to change the nature of work and the skills frontier to move quickly bringing opportunities. There is a big new wave of entrepreneurship in Africa, of venture capital funds, and we are betting and investing in creating a venture capital ecosystem. The two large areas offering a great potential are renewable energies and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa countries, where Angola is located and an important region for Europe from a strategic point of view. The main focus is in the area of climate change and measuring the impact of projects. Another area in which invest is due to continue is Healthcare, developing internal skills to finance clinical research on neglected diseases, that is, those that are not profitable for the pharmaceutical industry, and that therefore do not receive sufficient funding to transform research in medication. And all this depending of the will of investors given that the country cannot change everything on its own. Partners, money, strategy and vision, all combined with information, ideas, and intelligence, that is, the economy of the three “is”. Twenty-five of the world’s 30 poorest countries are in Africa. Changing this reality depends on the will, which in turn is based on knowledge and ultimately leads to investment. We should look again at a continent that still has so much to offer, population, youth, resources, space and areas where the potential return is huge: Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry, Manufacturing and Processing Industries, Fisheries and Aquaculture, including fish processing, support to construction and housing, healthcare (preventive medicine, pharmaceutical industry, etc.), Education - regular and technical-professional, Transport and Telecommunications, Hospitality and Tourism and, finally, Technology. We can reinvent a new world, with better socio-economic and environmental policies, if we are willing to do so, without changing country, without changing continent! They call it Africa, we call it home. l


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INTERNACIONAL MOÇAMBIQUE

MOÇAMBIQUE A V O N TA D E D E Q U E R E R V O LTA R A S E R UM ALUNO EXEMPLAR

MOZAMBIQUE THE WILL TO BECOME A MODEL PUPIL

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L M O Z A M B I Q U E

JOÃO VAZ DE ALMADA, C VA HEAD OF OFFICE MOÇAMBIQUE

2020 P OD E R Á S E R U M A N O DE V I R AG EM EM MO ÇAMBI Q U E , INICIAND O U M CI CLO DE R E TO MA RU MO AO PROGR E S S O E D E S E N VO LV I M EN TO H Á M U I TO ANS I AD O P O R TO D O S . AP Ó S A G R AV E CR IS E E CO NÓ MI CA QUE ASSOLO U O PAÍ S D E SDE 20 1 4, PA R A A Q UA L M U ITO CO NT R IBU IU O CH AMAD O CAS O DAS “ DÍV I DAS O CULTAS”, MO ÇAM B I Q U E TEM FEI TO T U D O PA R A R ECO N Q U ISTAR A CO NFI ANÇA DA CO MU NI DADE I NT E R NACI O N AL , DESE JAND O VOLTAR R A PI DA M EN T E AO S T EM P OS - ME AD O S D O S ANO S 90 - E M Q U E E R A O RG U LH O S AMENTE CO N H EC I D O CO MO U M ALU NO E XE MPL AR . 2020 COUL D B E A T U R N I N G P O I N T I N M O Z A M B I Q U E , START ING A C YCLE O F R E COV E RY TO WAR DS PRO GRESS AN D D E VE LO P M E N T T H AT EV ERYO N E H A S B EEN LO NG I NG FO R . AFT E R T H E S E V E R E E CO NO MIC CR IS IS THAT PL AGUE D THE CO U N T RY SI N C E 20 1 4, G I V EN TO A G R E AT E XT E NT TO T H E E XIST E NCE O F T H E S O -CALLED HIDDE N D E BTS , M O Z A M B I Q U E H A S D O N E EV ERY T H ING TO R E G AI N T H E CO NFIDE NCE O F T H E I NT E R NAT IONAL COM M UNI T Y, W I SH I N G TO R ET U R N Q U I C K LY TO T H E T IME S - T H E MI D -90S - W H E N IT WAS PRO U DLY AC K N O W L ED G E D AS A MO DE L PU PI L.

A

cho que esse caminho tem de ser de atitude e de comportamento, de cultura. Não basta que seja de intenção política, tem que haver uma coisa assumida no quotidiano, isto é quando olho para alguém que não é o do meu partido político embora eu não tenha nenhum-, mas eu tenho que saber que tenho que escutar a essa pessoa com vontade de escutar e com vontade de perceber que ele pode ter razão.” Estas foram as palavras do maior escritor moçambicano, Mia Couto, uma das vozes mais escutadas e respeitadas no país, logo após a tomada de posse do presidente Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, que iniciou, no passado dia 15 de Janeiro, o seu segundo e último mandato. Em relação ao sector do Oil & Gas, que deverá mostrar toda a sua pujança a partir de 2024, o escritor revelou-se optimista: “Há a ideia de que eles [os recursos naturais e minerais] são sempre uma maldição, e que só correu bem na Noruega. Acho que isso é uma desconsideração, uma desqualificação à partida de que os africanos não podem fazer bem, podem fazer bem”. No entanto, Mia defendeu que o país não pode ficar refém do gás, este não pode ser “a economia de Moçambique.” Efectivamente, de alguns anos a esta parte, Moçambique tem estado a descobrir enormes quantidades de gás natural, que tornam o país numa das maiores reservas mundiais deste recurso. Estudos realizados por organizações internacionais especializadas na matéria afirmam que as reservas de gás de Moçambique fazem parte das maiores do mundo. Os projectos das companhias petrolíferas no Norte do país têm o potencial de transformar a economia moçambicana, tornando o país, a par do Qatar, no maior exportador de gás natural do mundo.

I

think that this path has to be one of attitude and behaviour, of culture. Political intentions are not enough, it was to be something embedded in our daily lives, that is, when I look at someone who is not from my political party - although I have none -, I have to know that I have to listen to that person and be willing to hear and to realize that this person may be right. ” These were the words of the greatest Mozambican writer, Mia Couto, one of the most respected voices in the country, shortly after the inauguration of President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, who began his second and last term on January 15th. Regarding the Oil & Gas sector, which should show all its strength from 2024, the writer was optimistic: “There is the idea that these [natural and mineral resources] are always a curse, and that things only went well in Norway. I see this as disregard, a disqualification, this idea that Africans cannot do things well, yes they can do things well ”. However, Mia argued that the country cannot be held hostage by gas, this cannot be “Mozambique’s economy.” In fact, for some years now, Mozambique has been discovering huge amounts of natural gas, which make the country one of the largest world reserves of this resource. Studies carried out by international organizations specialised in this field claim that Mozambique’s gas reserves are among the largest in the world. The oil companies’ projects in the north of the country have the potential to transform the Mozambican economy, making the country, alongside Qatar, the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. Just to give you an idea, Mozambique should receive around US $ 95 billion in the next 25 years of revenue from the investments of multinationals in the exploration of natural 87


INTERNACIONAL MOÇAMBIQUE

Só para se ter uma ideia, Moçambique deverá receber cerca de 95 mil milhões de dólares nos próximos 25 anos de receitas provenientes dos investimentos das multinacionais na exploração de gás natural, ou seja, sete vezes mais do que o valor do actual PIB. A chamada Decisão Final de Investimento (DFI), assinada entre o governo e o consórcio liderado pela empresa norte-americana Anadarko para a exploração de Gás Natural Liquefeito na Bacia do Rovuma, teve lugar no passado mês de Junho e deixou o país mergulhado numa grande esperança. Aliás, imediatamente após este evento, assistiu-se a uma valorização da moeda local, o metical, prevendo-se que esta tendência se mantenha durante todo o ano de 2020. O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) prevê que Moçambique tenha uma forte recuperação económica neste ano de 2020 e uma inflação baixa. Os números do FMI apontam para um crescimento do PIB de 5,5% em 2020. Já no final de 2019 o relatório “World Economic Outlook” previa uma aceleração para 6% em 2020 chegando aos 11,5% em 2024, quando as primeiras receitas do gás se fizerem sentir. É um crescimento a dois dígitos, enorme, só comparável ao ocorrido nos primeiros anos da paz em meados da década de 90. A forma como Moçambique reagiu à devastação provocada pelos ciclones Idai e Kenneth, no primeiro semestre do ano passado, tem merecido rasgados panegíricos da Comunidade Internacional e tem sido motivo de aproximação entre as partes, após o corte abrupto do apoio dos doadores ao Orçamento de Estado em 2016, na sequência do caso das chamadas dívidas ocultas. Prova disso foi a recente deslocação a Maputo do Director-Geral Adjunto desta instituição financeira, Tao Zhang, deixando claro que “o FMI está pronto para reforçar ainda mais a sua colaboração com

gas, that is, seven times more than the value of the current GDP. The so-called Final Investment Decision (DFI), signed between the government and the consortium led by the American company Anadarko for the exploration of Liquefied Natural Gas in the Rovuma Basin, started last June and left the country immersed in great hope. In fact, immediately after this event, the local currency, the metical, appreciated, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the year 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Mozambique will have a strong economic recovery in this year 2020 and low inflation. The IMF figures point to a GDP growth of 5.5% in 2020. At the end of 2019, the “World Economic Outlook” report predicted an acceleration to 6% in 2020, reaching 11.5% in 2024, when the first gas revenues start to be factored in. It’s an enormous double-digit growth, comparable only to what happened in the first years of peace in the mid-90s. The manner how Mozambique reacted to the devastation caused by cyclones Idai and Kenneth, in the first half of last year, has deserved panegyric praises from the International Community and has been a reason for approximation between the parties, after the abrupt cut in donor support to the State Budget in 2016, following the case of socalled hidden debts. Proof of this was the recent visit to Maputo by the Deputy Director-General of this financial institution, Tao Zhang, making it clear that “the IMF is ready to further strengthen its collaboration with the Mozambican authorities and help to move forward with its reform agenda.” Taking advantage of this good environment, at the end of February, the Mozambican government, through the Minister of Economy and Finance, Adriano Maleiane, submitted to this Bretton Wood institution a letter requesting the sending of a technical team

TA N S F O R M A D O R D A M O T R A C O , P R O J E C TO DA E FAC E C M O Ç A M B I Q U E M OT R AC O T R A N S F O R M E R , E FAC E C MOZAMBIQUE PROJECT

U M A V I S TA D A P R A Ç A D A I N D E P E N D Ê N C I A E M M A P U T O , C O M A E S TÁT U A D E S A M O R A M A C H E L A VIEW OF INDEPENDENCE SQUARE IN MAPUTO, W I T H T H E S TA T U E O F S A M O R A M A C H E L

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L A N Ç A M E N T O DA P R I M E I R A P E D R A PA R A A C O N S T R U Ç ÃO D O P R O J E C T O M O Z A M B I Q U E L N G , L I D E R A D O P E L A T O TA L L AY I N G T H E F I R S T S T O N E F O R T H E B U I L D I N G O F T H E M O Z A M B I Q U E L N G P R O J E C T, L E D B Y T O TA L . A U G U S T, 2 0 1 9

as autoridades moçambicanas e ajudar a avançar com a sua agenda de reformas.” Aproveitando este bom ambiente, no final de Fevereiro, o governo moçambicano, através o ministro da Economia e Finanças, Adriano Maleiane, submeteu a esta instituição de Bretton Wood uma carta a solicitar o envio ao país de uma equipa técnica para retoma do apoio ao Orçamento do Estado (OE). “Temos de trabalhar todos para mobilizar recursos, é um orçamento que tem de responder a um contexto em que a receita também precisa de ser melhorada”, referiu aquele governante à imprensa. De acordo com Maleiane, o pedido “significa que as negociações em curso entre o governo moçambicano e o FMI estão num bom caminho, tal como os responsáveis do fundo também já tinham deixado transparecer numa visita recente a Maputo.” Mas, tal como uma medalha, também Moçambique ostenta um reverso e bastante duro. O conflito na província Cabo Delgado, no extremo norte, já vai no terceiro ano e não dá mostras de abrandar, continuando desconhecidas as intenções de quem ataca. Esta instabilidade está a levar a alguma retracção do investimento, uma vez que os ataques ocorrem precisamente na zona onde estão instaladas as companhias que detêm os contratos de exploração. E o pior é que não há um fim à vista. De mais fácil resolução, embora se venha a arrastar há demasiado tempo, são os ataques no centro do país, na zona da serra da Gorongosa, atribuídos a uma facção dissidente da Renamo – antigo movimento rebelde, hoje o principal partido da oposição – que não reconhece a liderança de Ossufo Mamade, o sucessor do carismático Afonso Dhlakama, falecido em Maio de 2018, vítima de doença. No seu discurso de investidura, em Janeiro último, o presidente Filipe Nyusi, afirmou que a prioridade absoluta do seu novo mandato é a preservação da paz, condição indispensável para o desenvolvimento. “Continuaremos, nem que isso nos custe a vida, a defender e promover a paz”, disse. Se estas palavras encontrarem eco no terreno, estará assegurado meio caminho andado rumo ao sucesso e à prosperidade. l 90

V I S TA P A N O R Â M I C A D E M A P U T O , V E N D O - S E A O F U N D O A N O VA P O N T E M A P U T O – K A T E M B E PA N O R A M I C V I E W O F M A P U T O , W I T H T H E N E W M A P U T O - K AT E M B E B R I D G E I N T H E B A C KG R O U N D

to the country to resume support to the State Budget (SB). “We all have to work in order to mobilize resources, it is a budget that has to respond to a context in which the revenue also needs to be improved”, said this government official to the press. According to Maleiane, the request “means that the ongoing negotiations between the Mozambican government and the IMF are on a good track, as those in charge of this fund have hinted in a recent visit to Maputo.” But, like a medal, Mozambique also has a reverse and quite a difficult one. The conflict in Cabo Delgado province, in the far north, is already in its third year and shows no sign of slowing down and the intentions of those who attack remain unknown. This instability is leading to some investment retraction, since the attacks occur precisely in the area where the companies holding the exploration contracts are installed. And the worst thing is that there is no end in sight. Easier to resolve, although it has been dragging on for too long, are the attacks in the centre of the country, in the area of the Gorongosa mountain range, attributed to a dissident faction of Renamo - a former rebel movement, today the main opposition party - that does not recognizes the leadership of Ossufo Mamade, the successor to the charismatic Afonso Dlakhama, who died in May 2018 from illness. In his inauguration speech last January, President Filipe Nyusi said that the absolute priority of his new mandate is the preservation of peace, an indispensable condition for the development of the country. “We will continue, even if it costs us our lives, to defend and promote peace,” he said. If these words are echoed on the ground, halfway to success and prosperity will be assured. l


CONFIANÇA RIGOR LIBERDADE SERIEDADE ISENÇÃO CREDIBILIDADE INDEPENDÊNCIA CONFIANÇA RIGOR LIBE SERIEDADE ISENÇÃO CREDIBILIDADE QUALIDADE CONFIA RIGOR LIBERDADE SERIEDADE INDEPENDÊNCIA ISENÇÃO DE É PRECISO LIDADE RIGOR LIBERDADE SENÇÃO TER IDADE CONFIANÇA LIBERDA INDEPENDÊNCIA ISENÇÃO CREDIBILIDADE QUALIDADE INDEPENDÊNCIA RIGOR SERIEDADE LIBERDADE INDEPEND QUALIDADE SERIEDADE RIGOR INDEPENDÊNCIA CREDIBIL Ao assinar a VISÃO está a apoiar o jornalismo independente e de qualidade, essencial para a defesa dos valores democráticos em Portugal

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INTERNACIONAL GUINÉ-BISSAU

ELEIÇÕES NA GUINÉ-BISSAU: UMA HISTÓRIA MAL CONTADA ELECTIONS IN GUINEA-BISSAU: A STORY THAT DOESN’ T ADD UP

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Guiné-Bissau realizou a segunda volta das eleições presidências no passado dia 29 de Dezembro. Uma aliança dos partidos da oposição integrando a maioria dos candidatos derrotados na primeira volta perfilou-se atrás do jovem General Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Contrariamente ao esperado no estrangeiro, mas correspondendo às expectativas dos guineenses que habitam no interior do país e acompanham a dinâmica da vida política interna, o General Sissoco Embaló venceu as eleições com mais de 53% dos sufrágios expressos. Segundo observadores locais, esta vitória deve-se ao empenho dos partidários de Sissocó Embaló na fiscalização das assembleias de voto e na celeridade com que foram apurados os resultados nas Comissões Regionais de Eleições, não deixando tempo ao partido dominante, o Paigc, que governou o país durante 42 anos e controla a administração e a justiça, para alterar os votos contidos nas urnas. Pela primeira vez, desde 1994, em eleições realizadas na Guiné-Bissau, as partes interessadas puderam recolher e tratar todas as actas-síntese das mesas de voto. Este facto, dizem, deveu-se à utilização de telemóveis para a transmissão de fotografias das ditas actas-síntese aos centros de apuramento nas sedes de campanha situadas na capital, Bissau.

uinea-Bissau held the second round of presidential elections on 29 December. An alliance of opposition parties, comprising most of the candidates defeated in the first round, stated their support to the young General Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Contrary to what was expected abroad, but meeting the expectations of Guineans living in the inner areas of the country and following the dynamics of domestic political life, General Sissoco Embaló won the elections with more than 53% of the votes cast. According to local observers, this victory is due to the efforts of the supporters of Sissocó Embaló to inspect the polling stations and the speed how results were obtained in the Regional Election Commissions, leaving no time for the dominant party, the Paigc, who ruled the country for 42 years and controls administration and justice, to change the votes contained in the ballot boxes. For the first time since 1994, in elections held in Guinea-Bissau, the relevant actors were able to collect and process all summaryminutes from polling stations. This fact, they say, was the result of the use of mobile phones to transmit photographs of the said summary-minutes to the polling centres at the campaign headquarters located in the capital, Bissau.

Vitória Confirmada pelos Observadores No dia seguinte à segunda volta da eleição as Comissões Regionais de Eleições procederam à contagem dos resultados obtidos nas

Victory Confirmed by Observers The day after the second round of the election, the Regional Election Commissions counted the results obtained in the

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L G U I N E A - B I S S A U

HÉLDER VAZ, EMBAIXADOR DA GUINÉ-BISSAU GUINEA-BISSAU EMBASSADOR

“mesas de voto” em todos o país. Dessas operações de apuramento regional foram elaboradas actas de apuramento regional assinadas por todos aqueles que participaram nesse apuramento, representantes dos dois candidatos, membros das comissões regionais, representantes do Ministério Público, agentes da polícia judiciária colocados nas regiões em algumas regiões também estiverem presentes e assinaram as actas os agentes locais dos serviços de informação do Estado. Todos os observadores internacionais presentes, nomeadamente da União Africana, CEDEAO, CPLP, ONU, consideraram as “eleições livres, justas, transparentes, ordeiras e democráticas”. No dia 31 de Dezembro, menos de 48 horas após o término da votação, na presença de membros da Comunidade internacional, nomeadamente do representante do Secretário-geral da ONU para Africa Ocidental, Mohammed Chambas, o candidato derrotado, Domingos Simões Pereira, do Paigc telefonou ao seu adversário, General Umaro Sissoco Embaló, reconhecendo a derrota e felicitando o vencedor. Esse célebre telefonema ficou registado em áudio. Porém, surpreendentemente, no dia 01 de Janeiro de 2020, em mensagem dirigida aos seus partidários, Domingos Simões Pereira rejeitava o facto de ter felicitado o candidato vencedor. De seguida, num país onde a justiça é corrupta e as sentenças são tratadas como mercadorias, o Paigc e o seu candidato manietaram o Supremo Tribunal de Justiça através de pagamentos de subsídios em atraso aos juízes conselheiros e enveredaram por um processo de negação dos resultados ancorado na manipulação da comunicação social estrageira. Esta estratégia de terra queimada lançada pelo Paigc de Domingos Simões Pereira baseia-se no “ou nós ou nada” e visa a anulação das eleições. É relevante referir o facto de que todas as actas de apuramento regional foram assinadas por todas as partes e pelo Ministério Público, não constando nem uma única reclamação da parte dos candidatos. A Lei Eleitoral guineense só admite recurso contencioso quando são previamente apresentadas reclamações, em cascata, nas assembleias de voto, nas Comissões Regionais de Eleições e na Comissão Nacional de Eleições. Não havendo reclamações prévias não atendidas satisfatoriamente o reclamante não pode apresentar recurso ao Supremo Tribunal de Justiça, nas vestes de tribunal eleitoral. Por isso à imagem de decisões anteriores deste mesmo tribunal, o recurso apresentado pelo candidato do Paigc deveria ter sido liminarmente indeferido pelo Tribunal. Porém, o mais grave é que o Supremo Tribunal já admitiu quatro recursos do candidato derrotado sobre a mesma matéria, tendo obrigado a Comissão Nacional de Eleições a repetir por três vez as operações de Apuramento Nacional dos Resultados. Contam-se em quatro as vezes que a CNE realizou o Apuramento Nacional e os resultados obtidos permanecem invariavelmente os mesmos, confirmado a vitória do General na reserva Umaro Sissoco Embaló. l

“polling stations” in the whole country. From these regional vote-counting operations, regional results minutes were drawn up signed by all those who participated in the counting, representatives of the two candidates and members of the regional commissions, representatives of the State Prosecutor’s Office. Criminal police officers placed in some regions were also present and signed the minutes together with the local agents of the State information services. All international observers present, namely from the African Union, ECOWAS, CPLP, UN, considered the “elections to be free, fair, transparent, orderly and democratic”. On December 31, less than 48 hours after the end of the voting, in the presence of members of the international community, namely the representative of the UN Secretary-General for West Africa, Mohammed Chambas, the defeated candidate, Domingos Simões Pereira, from Paigc called his opponent, General Umaro Sissoco Embaló, acknowledged the defeat and congratulated the winner. That famous phone call was recorded on audio. However, surprisingly, on January 1, 2020, in a message addressed to his supporters, Domingos Simões Pereira rejected the fact that he had congratulated the winning candidate. Then, in a country where justice is corrupt and sentences are treated like commodities, Paigc and his candidate tied the Supreme Court of Justice hands through overdue subsidy payments to counsellor judges and embarked on a process of denying the results anchored in the manipulation of the foreign media. This scorched earth strategy launched by Paigc headed by Domingos Simões Pereira is based on an “either we or nothing” attitude and aims at annulling the elections. It’s worth mentioning that all the minutes of the regional vote counting were signed by all the parties and by the Public Prosecutor’s Office and not a single complaint was received from the candidates. The Guinean Electoral Law only accepts a contentious appeal when complaints are previously filed, in cascade, at the polling stations, at the Regional Election Commissions and at the National Election Commission. As there were no previous complaints not satisfactorily answered, the claimant cannot appeal to the Supreme Court of Justice, acting as an electoral court. For this reason, similarly to previous decisions of this same court, the appeal filed by the Paigc candidate should have been outright dismissed by the Court. However, the most serious issue is that the Supreme Court has already accepted four appeals from the defeated candidate on the same matter, having forced the National Elections Commission to repeat the National Results Counting operations three times. The National Elections Committee carried out the National Vote Counting four times and the results obtained invariably remain the same, confirming the victory of the ex-army General Umaro Sissoco Embaló. l 93


INTERNACIONAL BRASIL

A VIRADA DO BRASIL

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THE TURN OF BRAZIL

e há uma expressão brasileira que mostra a capacidade de resiliência, a fé no talento, e a vitória contra as expectativas é esta: a virada, seja no estádio ou na economia. A virada, especialmente no futebol, ocorre quando uma equipa consegue “virar” um resultado negativo. O melhor exemplo, e mais próximo, foi como o Flamengo de Jorge Jesus virou o resultado na Libertadores e acabou a vencer a taça ao River Plate, no final da taça sul-americana no ano passado. Ou, o melhor caso português, no jogo contra a Coreia do Norte em 1966, em que a selecção nacional perdia 3-0 aos 25 minutos – antes da genialidade de Eusébio dar 3 golos a Portugal que, com mais um de José Augusto, nos deu a vitória desses quartos de final. Sem excessos futebolísticos, a virada é o desígnio do ministro Paulo Guedes, para a economia brasileira. A reacelaração, já depois do crescimento de 1,1% do PIB em 2019, é objectivo do ministro da economia, que prevê um crescimento acima de 2% em 2020. 94

I

f there is a Brazilian expression that shows the capacity for resilience, the faith in talent, and the victory against expectations is this: “the turn”, whether in stadiums or in the economy. The turn, especially in football, occurs when a team manages to turnaround a negative result. The best and closest example was the manner how Jorge Jesus’ Flamengo football team managed to turn the result during Libertadores and ended up beating River Plate in the final match of the South American cup last year. Or, in the Portuguese case, how during the game against North Korea in 1966, when the national team was losing 3-0 in the 25th minute - when the genius of Eusébio gave Portugal three goals, followed by another by José Augusto and which secured Portugal’s victory in those quarter-finals. Without the football excesses, the turn point is Minister Paulo Guedes’ goal as regards the Brazilian economy. Reacceleration, after the 1.1% GDP growth in 2019, is the objective of the minister of the economy, who foresees growth above 2% in 2020.


I N T E R N AT I O N A L B R A Z I L

DAVID SEROMENHO, CEO CV&A BRASIL

Aliás, se não fossem os factores exógenos, como a pandemia global do coronavírus, a expectativa seria até de 2,4%. Depois de crescimento negativo há cinco anos e de uma recuperação tímida que desacelerou em 2019, a previsão de um crescimento acima de dois por cento é uma boa notícia, num ano que está a começar bem. O Indicador Ipea Mensal de Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo (FBCF), divulgado pelo Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada dia 11 de Março, apresentou forte crescimento em Janeiro de 2020, com alta de 7,8% na comparação com Dezembro, na série com ajuste sazonal. Na comparação com Janeiro de 2019, todos os segmentos tiveram desempenho positivo: máquinas e equipamentos avançaram 11,4%, a construção civil atingiu patamar 3,7% superior e os “outros ativos fixos” apresentaram alta de 6%. As previsões do último “panorama macroeconómico”, de 11 de Março, apontam ainda uma descida na inflação, e crescimento no rendimento e massa salarial no sector privado. No entanto, para o ministro Paulo Guedes, esta velocidade não chega e são necessárias mais acções para dar força a esta virada: “A economia está acelerando lentamente esperando as reformas. A medida que as reformas forem acontecendo, e elas serão implementadas, o Brasil vai reacelerando”. l

In fact, if it weren’t for exogenous factors, such as the global coronavirus pandemic, growth might reach 2.4%. After negative growth five years ago and a timid recovery that slowed in 2019, the forecast of growth above two per cent is good news, in a year that is starting well. The Ipea Monthly Indicator of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), released by the Institute of Applied Economic Research on March 11, showed a strong growth in January 2020, with an increase of 7.8% in comparison with December, in the seasonally adjusted series. In comparison with January 2019, all segments had a positive performance: machinery and equipment increased 11.4% civil construction reached the 3.7% threshold and “other fixed assets” increased by 6%. The forecasts of the last “macroeconomic outlook” of 11 March also point to a fall in inflation, and growth in income and wages in the private sector. However, for Minister Paulo Guedes, this speed is not enough and more actions are needed to strengthen this turn: “The economy is accelerating slowly and waiting for reforms. As the reforms take place, and they will be implemented, Brazil will reaccelerate”. l

D E P O I S DE CRES CIMENTO NEG ATIVO H Á C I N CO AN OS E DE UMA R EC UPER AÇ ÃO T Í M I DA QUE DE SAC EL ERO U EM 2 019, A P REVI SÃO D E UM C R ESC IM ENTO ACI M A D E D OI S P O R C ENTO É UMA B OA NOTÍ CI A, N UM A NO Q UE ESTÁ A CO M E ÇAR B E M.

A F T E R N E G AT I V E G R O W T H F I V E Y E A R S A G O A N D A T I M I D R E C O V E R Y T H AT SLOWED IN 2019, THE FORECAST OF GROWTH ABOVE TWO PER CENT I S G O O D N E W S , I N A Y E A R T H AT I S S TA R T I N G W E L L .

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SOCIEDADE

COMMUNITY

GABRIEL SENDEROWICZ, CONSELHO DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO, COMUNIDADE JUDAICA DO PORTO EXECUTIVE BOARD OF JEWISH COMMUNITY IN OPORTO

PORTO: UMA LUZ SOBRE AS NAÇÕES OPORTO: A LIGHT UNTO THE NATIONS U M A C O L A B O R A Ç Ã O Q U E S E D E S TA C A C O M O U M FA R O L D E E S P E R A N Ç A PA R A O U T R O S E U M R E D E S P E R TA R D A V I D A J U D A I C A N O P O R T O E N O U T R A S PA R T E S . A C O L L A B O R AT I O N T H AT S TA N D S A S A B E A C O N O F H O P E F O R O T H E R S A N D A R E - AWA K E N I N G O F J E W I S H LIFE IN OPORTO AND BEYOND.

O

Porto é uma cidade de forte tradição católica. Embora a nossa cidade seja mais conhecida pela sua produção de vinho, acolhe agora também uma iniciativa pioneira inter-religiosa. A única ilação que podemos retirar da história é que nunca aprendemos com a história. Infelizmente, o antissemitismo ressurgiu em toda a Europa. Operou uma viragem perniciosa, muitas vezes cruel. A história das pequenas comunidades judaicas é demasiadas vezes de luta pela sobrevivência. No Porto, no entanto, decidimos combater esse novo tipo de antissemitismo pela via do diálogo, colaboração e educação. No final do ano passado, as comunidades judaica e católica do Porto uniram-se no sentido de maximizarem o que tinham em comum, em vez se focarem no que as dividia. Iniciativas inter-religiosas são comuns, mas, tanto quanto sabemos, este foi um projeto único que recolheu apoios de muitos setores, incluindo do B’nai B’rith International e do Vaticano. O próprio Papa escreveu a oferecer as suas orações e votos de apreço. A comunidade católica do

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O

porto is steeped in Catholicism. While our city may be best known for its wine production, it is now also home to a pioneering interfaith initiative. The one lesson we can draw from history is that we never learn from history. Unfortunately anti-Semitism has resurfaced throughout Europe. It has taken a pernicious, often vicious turn. Too often, the story of small Jewish communities is one of a fight for survival. In Oporto, however, we have decided to combat this new strain of anti-Semitism through dialogue, collaboration and education. Towards the end of last year, the Jewish and Catholic communities of Oporto came together to maximise what they had in common as opposed to focusing on what divided them. Interfaith initiatives are commonplace but as far as we know, this was a unique project, attracting support from many quarters, including B’nai B’rith International and The Vatican. Notably, the Pope himself wrote offering his prayers and good wishes. Oporto’s Catholic body has an enviably rich history. It can trace itself back to the sixth (Texto escrito ao abrigo do novo acordo ortográfico)


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SOCIEDADE

O NOSSO PROJETO SURGIU DE UM PROTOCOLO DE AMIZADE E COLABORAÇÃO, ASSINADO EM 2018, ENTRE AS NOSSAS DUAS COMUNIDADES.

Porto tem uma história rica e invejável. Remonta ao século VI, possui um imponente Palácio Episcopal que é um marco visível e uma Diocese que compreende cerca de dois milhões de pessoas. Por outro lado, a comunidade judaica conta com cerca de 400 membros e a impressionante sinagoga Kadoori Mekor Haim, a maior da península ibérica. Perante a inquietação que se vive na Europa, alguns membros da comunidade judaica perguntaram-se se a comunidade católica se juntaria a si no combate a essa nova iteração do antissemitismo. Mas não através de sermões ou discussões numa câmara de ressonância, mas sim participando num projeto inter-religioso inovador. Podemos ter ritos, rituais e idiomas diferentes, mas um ponto em comum que é a fé, a fé num poder maior que nós. E essa foi a faísca que gerou a ideia para este projeto. O nosso projeto surgiu de um protocolo de amizade e colaboração, assinado em 2018, entre as nossas duas comunidades. Embora isso proporcionasse um entendimento mais próximo, também estávamos interessados em capitalizar o crescente relacionamento e, durante alguns meses, chegamos a acordo quanto a uma série de iniciativas de apoio a alguns membros mais vulneráveis da comunidade em geral e à volta do Porto. Trabalharemos ativamente e conjuntamente para ajudar idosos, doentes e crianças contribuindo para uma série de instituições de caridade que têm esses grupos-chave como beneficiários. É também uma possibilidade de celebrar a riqueza da nossa herança religiosa e cultural distinta, romper com as divisões do passado e olhar juntos para uma sociedade mais tolerante e solidária. Como primeiro passo, produzimos um programa de quatro filmes, que chamam a atenção para alguns atos pouco conhecidos de bondade e tolerância religiosa, além de fornecer um relato histórico da história dos judeus no Porto desde a Idade Média até os nossos dias. Todos os rendimentos gerados a partir dos filmes serão doados para as instituições de caridade selecionadas. Com tanta atenção e preocupação expressas quanto ao ressurgimento do antissemitismo em todo o mundo, queremos que esta colaboração seja um farol de esperança para os outros e um despertar da vida judaica no Porto e noutras partes. Esta iniciativa fez com que nos juntássemos em amizade para celebrar as diferenças de cada um e colaborar para ajudar os menos afortunados que nós. Pois, ao fazer isso, não apenas banimos o antissemitismo, mas unimo-nos em atos de bondade e justiça. Esta é a história que estamos a escrever agora, juntos. l 98

COMMUNITY

OUR PROJECT STEMMED FROM A F R I E N D S H I P A N D C O L L A B O R AT I O N PROTOCOL, SIGNED IN 2018, BETWEEN OUR TWO COMMUNITIES.

century, has an imposing Episcopal Palace which is a visible landmark, while the Diocese comprises about two million people. By contrast, the Jewish community consists of roughly 400 members – albeit with the striking Kadoori Mekor Haim synagogue, being the largest in the Iberian peninsular. Noting the disquiet in Europe, some members of the Jewish community wondered whether the Catholic community would join with them in combatting this new iteration of anti-Semitism. But this was not to be through sermons or discussions in an echo chamber, but by participating in a ground-breaking interfaith project. We may have different rites, rituals, and language, but one point of commonality is that we both have faith, the faith in a Power greater than ourselves. And this was a spark which generated the idea for this project. Our project stemmed from a friendship and collaboration protocol, signed in 2018, between our two communities. While that delivered a closer understanding, we were also keen to capitalise on the growing relationship and over a period of months agreed on a series of initiatives that would help some of the most vulnerable in the wider community in and around Oporto. We will be actively working together to help the elderly, the sick and children contributing to a range of charities which have these key groups as beneficiaries. This is a chance also to celebrate the richness of our distinct religious and cultural heritage, make a break with the divisions of the past and look ahead together to a more tolerant and supportive society. As a first step, we have produced a programme of four films, that bring to light some little known acts of kindness and religious tolerance as well as giving a historical account of the history of Jews in Oporto from the Middle Ages to the modern day. All the proceeds generated from the films will be donated to our selected charities. With so much attention and concern expressed over the resurgence of anti-Semitism across the world, we want this collaboration to stand as a beacon of hope for others and a re-awakening of Jewish life in Oporto and beyond. This initiative has caused us to join in friendship to celebrate each other’s differences and collaborate to help those less fortunate than ourselves. For in doing so not only do we banish anti-Semitism, but unite in acts of lovingkindness and justice. This is the history we are now writing, together. l


ECO Insider é uma newsletter que não se limita a fazer um resumo da semana ou a antecipar o que será a seguinte. É uma newsletter com informação. Aquela que não se sabe, os bastidores das empresas, negócios, da economia e da política. Com opinião, com entrevistas, com análise, com vídeos e gráficos. Com o país e com o mundo. O ECO Insider não vai ter publicidade, mas vai ter jornalismo. E o jornalismo independente custa dinheiro, por isso esta newsletter será reservada a assinantes, por cinco euros por mês, 50 euros por ano. É um contributo para garantir um jornalismo independente, e exigente. Saiba mais em eco.pt

Não será apenas um resumo da semana ou a antecipação do que será a seguinte. Será uma newsletter com informação. Aquela que não se sabe, os bastidores das empresas, negócios, da economia e da política. Com opinião, com entrevistas, com análise, com vídeos e gráficos. Com o país e com o mundo. Será, na verdade, um jornal semanal online dentro de outro jornal online, o ECO, que não poderá deixar de ler. E exclusivo para assinantes. Porquê? O ECO Insider não vai ter publicidade, não vai ter anúncios ou ‘banners’, mas vai ter jornalismo. E se o jornalismo custa dinheiro, o jornalismo independente custa ainda mais dinheiro, por isso esta newsletter será reservada a assinantes, por cinco euros por mês, 50 euros por ano. É um contributo para garantir um jornalismo independente, e exigente. Este é o preço-base da subscrição, e se o fizer até ao final de fevereiro, vai ter o estatuto de ‘Assinante Fundador’.

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EM CAMPO COM A SELECÇÃO PORTUGUESA DE RUGBY

Entrega total! ‘Fair play’! Superação de metas! Vontade de vencer! São estes os valores que unem a CV&A à Federação Portuguesa de Rugby e levaram a nossa agência a ser o patrocinador principal da Selecção Portuguesa. Força Lobos!

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PRÉMIO | Edição Março 2020  

Um olhar sobre 2020, um ano que fica já marcado por uma das maiores crises de saúde pública de sempre. As opiniões, as análises e as visões...

PRÉMIO | Edição Março 2020  

Um olhar sobre 2020, um ano que fica já marcado por uma das maiores crises de saúde pública de sempre. As opiniões, as análises e as visões...

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