A
Th e
Component Manufacturing dverti$ dverti $ er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$$er
November 2020 #12256 Page #94
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Lumber Market Forecast
2020 Hindsight
2
020 hindsight. Deduce deeper. Look farther than the end of my nose and keep asking, “What’s next?” I didn’t do that at the beginning of the pandemic. I failed to consider how men specifically would respond to the lockdown. I saw hangout at home, catch up on some honey-do’s and spend more quality time with the family. A break from office problems, just Dad or hubby surrounded by bodies that follow him around every step of the day. “Honey can you come here?” “Can we play Chutes & Ladders again?” Uh-uh...that ain’t gonna work. Dad just gave up his alone time and was literally on lockdown, confined if you will. Sorry ladies. It’s DNA. Look deeper. What’s next? Space, separation. That phenomenon is not over, especially with COVID on the rise, more parents working from home; work and play accommodations are needed. It is just beginning. 2020 was the knee jerk reaction. 2021 will be a planned response... proactive. Another big year for treated lumber, home office and exercise room additions and more square footage. This time around contractor yards, truss plants, treaters, big boxes will not be caught off guard. They will build inventory over the next eight weeks, with a light break at year-end. That said, I believe builders are already in big trouble. For the first time I can remember the housing market is oversold and under supplied. 6–12 months out to break ground at record high prices and 99% assurance that in Q1 2021 every component of a house will cost more is common. There is no extra pool of trained jobsite labor. Housing is maxed out at 1.2–1.3 mm. The delays already in place for windows, appliances, tubs, insulation, wallboard, pick any component... will stall Q1 2021 completions. Yes, housing will boom into Q1 then hit the wall. Not because demand will be squashed, 2% 30-year fixed mortgages will assure that. Rather inability to complete on schedule.
Continued next page
PHONE: 800-289-5627
Read/Subscribe online at www.componentadvertiser.com
FAX: 800-524-4982