A
Th e
Component Manufacturing dverti$ dverti $ er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
Adverti$$er
December 2020 #12257 Page #84
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Lumber Market Forecast COVID Shipment Delays WILL RISE he global pandemic surge is further exacerbating shipment schedules, lengthening many commodity and specialty items that are weeks behind already. Some truckloads of basic commodity Canadian lumber are just now catching up on two-month delays despite prices falling $500 over that same period. LVL is one of the most current to the list of construction supply shortages along with case goods, appliances, composite decking, plumbing fixtures, and tub/ shower units. It may be notable that these items are not in short supply due to increased demand, rather have extended order files based upon inability to meet production capacity as a function of COVID’s collective distribution disruption. We should expect, with 100% certainty, COVID-related lumber delivery delays this winter.
T
There are a few significant differences in COVID now and last February. We now know the illness was already active this month last year, and 2020’s hindsight gives real time data and 9 months of historical data to project the next three months. Yes, we are closer to a vaccine, however, best-case scenario, it will not be available to housing, construction, and “lumber businesses” even if classified as “essential” and remain open. There will be more and longer delays of supplies for essential businesses, because the fear of-infection factor will be greater between now and March. Of equal fear is the likelihood of civil unrest during the presidential transition of power. Stir in the promise to increase corporate taxes during the first 100 days to pay for economic stimulus of some sort and January could be horrendous from multiple perspectives. The over-looked obvious is job uncertainty and delayed stimulus payments. This fact will encourage savings and paying off newly accumulated debt more so than new spending. Desire for less corporate debt will squelch growth in the new year, including physical inventory like lumber. I’ll say it again, January is going to be hellacious. The most significant difference about this January and last is we know what is coming. As for the COVID vaccine, the comment I hear most from millennials is, “Not taking the first round.”
Everything Oversold, Except Lumber The lumber question for 2021 is, “Will we see a 2020 repeat of a 300% price increase and severe supply disruption?” Let’s deduce.
Continued next page
PHONE: 800-289-5627
Read/Subscribe online at www.componentadvertiser.com
FAX: 800-524-4982