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Lumber & Housing Market Forecast Don’t End Forget! Year Strategy You Saw it in the Adverti$er
Component Manufacturing dverti$er
December 2019 #11245 Page #92
We have six weeks left in the 2019 season with I expect prices for the remainder of the year to three major holidays inside that window. At a be in a sideways chop. SPF: November will finish minimum, we will lose one week of jobsite on a weaker tone than it began. The next two productivity. Buyers are measuring needs against weeks will be a better buying opportunity than inventory on the ground asBywell as bought ahead. December. Dry Fir: Look for a one week delayed Matt Layman Many states have year-endPublisher, inventory taxes and shadowing of SPF. SYP: Just-in-time trucks will Layman’s Lumber Guide historically reduce stocks over the next six weeks. hold this one up. At the same time, producers' log decks are Canadian SPF will lead the year-end up turn leaned for year-end tepid sales. This balances given its three week delivery time to the south. supply and demand. Mid December shipments will arrive after yearPrice weakness is an indication of buyers' end...inventory tax-free. The last two weeks of inventory reduction, which sets up a new year December will begin to firm in other species. replenishment buy-in. The remainder of the year will be littered with Looking Forward...ML speculation about trade impacts, housing expectations for 2020 and supply / demand relationships.
Lumber Briefs
Lumber & Housing Market Forecast
Year End Strategy Bullometer Most Bullish
LLG's Bullish, Bearish or Neutral Sentiment
100% 75% 50% 25% 25% 50% 75%
Most Bearish
100% Week #
47
48
49
50
51
52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
LLG 2x4#2 Composite (SYP-E, SPF-W, HF GDF) 2018-Current FTP's Forecasted Turning Points: Vertical arrows project times of reversals or accelerations. FTP Wk# 500 450 400 350 300
49
8
13
21
26 29
33
37
44
49
8
13
19
25
29
33
e have six weeks left in the 2019 season with three major holidays inside that window. At a minimum, we will lose one week of jobsite productivity. Buyers are measuring needs against inventory on the ground as well as bought ahead. Many states have year-end inventory taxes and historically reduce stocks over the next six weeks.
W
425
46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
325
At the same time, producers’ log decks are leaned for year-end tepid sales. This balances supply and demand. Layman's Lumber Guide...Matt Layman, Publisher PO Box 905, Belmont, NC 28012
Phone or Text: 336-516-6684 Fax: 888-811-6917 Reprint or distribution is unlawful without permission. Price weakness is an indication of buyers’ inventory reduction, which sets up a new Email: matt@laymansguide.INFO www.laymansguide.INFO TWITTER @Laymansguide year replenishment buy-in.
The remainder of the year will be littered with speculation about trade impacts, housing expectations for 2020, and supply/demand relationships.
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