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October 2017 #10219 Page #73
Lumber Briefs LAYMAN'S LUMBER MARKET BRIEF By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
COMPONENT PLANTS EDITION September Has Surged Matt Layman, Publisher 2017 nowOctober, the october ovation
September Has Surged; Now the October Ovation ToSoput things intotruss perspective. Over for the the pastOctober 15 Perhaps the most important question in our how can the plant prepare years, SYP 2x4#2 has exceeded this week's price lumber industry is..."What's next?" Ovation? Begin by expecting the trend shown on the times. highest $442 inthe2004 ($42 how out. canThe the plantwas prepare for October Ovation? erhaps the most question in our lumberThat industry just We are in the heatimportant of the September Surge. FTPfour toSoplay It truss has been a very reliable tool for us higher.) Canadian SPF 2004 by expecting the trendonce, shownalso on the FTP@ to $470 play out. It is: soon “What’s will benext?” coming to an end, but the clock doesn't in Begin the past, worthy of only trust going forward. higher.) Dryreliable Hempositioning Fir, $465 ($35 of trust has been ainventory very toolditto...once, for us is in crucial the past, standWe still. Lord willing...the sun will rise That tomorrow. Lumber inworthy October. are in the heat of the September Surge. will soon be ($85 higher). Green Doug Fir...Zero...2004 was $20 So, the question What should we going forward. Regardless of recent housing data and how it is being coming to an end, is, but"What's the clock next?" doesn’t stand still. Lord willing, lower at $460. expect and how do we prepare for it? interpreted, month positioning is excellent is forcrucial lumberin October. Lumberthis inventory the sun will rise tomorrow. So, the question is, “What’s next?” 7/16 OSB (I have more data) over the past 25 This has been an incredible year. It has delivered demand. Builders be scrambling floors, Regardless of recentwill housing data and howto it isget being interpreted, What should we expect and how do we prepare for it? years, has exceeded this week's price of $335 only on our forecast of extreme VOLATILITY. walls and roofs installed before late fall's shorter, this month is excellent for lumber demand. Builders will be Thisthe haslumber been anmarket's incredibleradical year. Itbehavior, has delivered 2003 $380 2004 @roofs $400. Despite the on our twice; colder days@ arrive, andwalls, certainly before winter scrambling to get floors, and installed before late fall’s forecast of extreme VOLATILITY. lumberhas market’s weather. From historically high prices, the lumber market FTP, Forecasted Time and PriceDespite chart, the (below) shorter, colder days arrive, and certainly before winter weather. radical the Forecasted Time and Price chart (FTP)has aWhat history 2004will high water its been ourbehavior, GPS to keep us on track. weofdodeclining. not knowAt is that if winter continue What we next do trend. noteleven know isweeks ifjobsites winter its recent shown here shows has beenus ourwhat GPS is to coming keep us on track. over the SYPwill fellcontinue $45; SPF The FTP next. That is the mark, recent warming If so, will remain busy. warming trend. If so, jobsites will remain busy. If not, the normal $155; Dry Hem Fir collapsed $175; Green will The Ovation...the FTP shows us what is coming That is the October dropped October grand finale'.next. Currently, If not, the normal November inventory reductions November inventory reductions will soften the market. Doug Fir eroded $185. Ovation...the grand finale. Currently, buyers are adding buyers are adding inventory to prepare for the inventory soften the market. continued to rally three moreOvation. weeks Give after That later,now now is the the October yourself a to prepare for the October Ovation...the last push before shorter, OSB October Ovation...the last push before shorter, That is is later, is October Ovation. Give lumber up to $435, then fellit $200 infinish hand foraapeak, remarkable Let’s finish offLet's with a bang.it off colder, less less productive jobsite daysdays arrive.arrive. Some may mistake thisthe colder, productive jobsite Some yourself hand for a year. remarkable year. as anmistake overreaction recent so. The hurricanes seven weeks. may thistoasthean overhurricanes. reaction Not to the recent with a bang. Think on that as you prepare for the Looking Forward ...ml September Surge. My play would be tolumber cover SYP added momentum to the forecasted trend. added hurricanes. Not so. The hurricanes •Layman's Lumber Guide bi-weekly market through mid October. Everything else, just fill in the momentum to the forecasted trend. forecasts and buying strategies are available by A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Layman’s Lumber What’s next? Continued upwards price movement with gaps and give it some room. Guide, the weekly forecasts(matt@laymansguide.org) and buying advisories that help What's next? Continued upwards price subscription. smaller weekly gains. Momentum will slow, but direction will monthly component manufacturers save 336-516-6684 money on lumber purchases every movement with smaller weekly gains. Momentum will [www.laymansguide.org] not reverse. day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or Looking Forward ...ml slow, but direction will not reverse.
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matt@laymansguide.org.
Composite (2x4's #2 SYP-E, SPF-W, Dry Hem Fir, Green Doug Fir.) Past 6 months-Current vs. (FTP) Forecasted Time & Price Vertical arrows project time-major turning weeks. Black squares forecast price direction.
Green Zone=Increasing Demand #02-30 Red Zone = Decreasing Demand Weeks #31-01 Yellow Zone=Daylight Savings Weeks #11 Through Week #44.
460 440 420 400 380 360 340
51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
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