Northeast Pennsylvania Business Journal--01-17

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Business Journal NORTHEAST

$1.50

PENNSYLVANIA

THE REGION’S AWARD-WINNING SOURCE OF BUSINESS NEWS AND INFORMATION

January 2017 VOL. 32 NO. 1

Experts optimistic about year ahead ‘The stock market is resilient and growing’

By Kathy Ruff

Economic Forecast 2017

SEE INSIDE PAGES

Consumer confidence is at pre-recession levels, according to The Conference Board, a global, independent business membership and research association headquartered in New York City and that may mean higher consumer spending in 2017. “By and large it’s going to be the strength of the labor market that’s going to dictate whether consumer confidence remains high,” said Brian Schaitkin, senior economist at The Conference Board. “It was already high before the election. As long as wages are good for most of those in the labor market, that’s going to portend well in terms of consumer confidence. In northeast Pennsylvania, though, you may have more workers who have already been disconnected from the labor market. If their situation does not improve rapidly, then you may see a deterioration in consumer confidence. “ Labor Market According to Schaitkin, the national labor market should remain tight. “What that means is that the number of people looking for work relative to the number of job opportunities that are out there is a fairly favorable condition for workers,” he said. “Right now the jobs report reported 4.6 percent unemployment. That’s the lowest rate we have seen since the Great Recession.” Schaitkin expects historical trends to continue as NEPA unemployment remains above state and national levels. He also sees optimism in the job market as statistics show a higher rate of people who quit jobs and a lower number of people laid off.

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“You’re starting to see that translate broadly from a national perspective into higher wages,” he said. “We have seen wage growth at around 2 ½ percent year over year.” While jobs and wages pick up in the national economy, NEPA will see a continued lag in both, in part because of a substantially lower participation in

the workforce by people aged 25 to 54 than before the Great Recession. “What that indicates is that some people who lost their jobs during the Great Recession were simply unable to find new jobs afterward and have left the labor force,” he said. “When you think about some of the industries that drive Northeast Pennsylvania, think about manufacturing. When manufacturing jobs leave, some people who have those specific skills may have trouble translating those skills into other job opportunities and that can cause them to lose contact with the labor market.” Please see FORECAST, Page 31

TS_CNG/NPBJ/PAGES [B01] | 12/28/16

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Volunteerism promotes wellness

SEE PAGE 26

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