2015 Middle East Report
Syria
BACKGROUND With half of Syria’s people driven from their homes, an economy in ruins, conflicting foreign intervention, and sectarianism at a fever pitch, neither President Bashar al Assad nor any constellation of rebel groups seems able to put a country called Syria back together again; it is almost impossible to envision a realistic and stable state. The Assad government insists it is winning. But can his regime hold out? He lacks the financial resources and manpower to overpower his enemies or buy back rebel towns with economic incentives. Assad’s international allies are hurting from low global oil prices. Most rebel groups remain linked to extremist factions and are divided to the point where they have no alternative government to offer — merely new forms of Islamist-dominated chaos — and are thus unlikely to gain “national” or international support. Additionally, the so-called Islamic State has proven that it is able to expand in some areas of Syria even as it loses territory in Iraq, but perhaps only through the failure of its opponents. When the Algerian Lakhdar Brahimi took on the position of United Nations and Arab League peace envoy in 2012, he warned of the “Somalization” of Syria. Very similar to the violent
overthrow of longtime Somali dictator Siad Barre in 1991, that was not followed by either democracy or a new dictatorship, but by permanent anarchy. Syria may be headed in this direction as warlords gain the upper hand before splintering and starting all over again. SYRIAN CHRISTIANS Until the civil war, Christians made up about a tenth of Syria’s population, or two million people. Up to half belonged to the Orthodox Patriarchal Church of Antioch, the preeminent Christian institution in the country. The second largest church was the Syriac Orthodox Church, while about 125,000 belonged to the Armenian Apostolic Church and about 46,000 people were members of the Church of the East. Catholics numbered some 400,000 people and included 234,000 Melkites, 62,000 Syriacs, 51,000 Maronites, 25,000 Armenians, 12,000 Latins and 15,000 Chaldeans, though this did not include the fluctuating number of Iraqi Chaldeans then seeking refuge in the country. Despite their minority status, Christians have long been among Syria’s elite. And they have been represented in many of the political parties active in the country, including the secular Arab nationalist and socialist movements.