City of Arvada Sales Tax Revenue Report September 2012 Taxes Receipted October 2012 Overview
This month the sales tax report appears quite different. With the adoption of the 2013 Budget and the 10-year plan, we have changed budget assumptions from the original budget. Through September, our sales tax estimates were $41.641 million for 2012. However, to make the appropriations necessary for the future, we increased our assumptions to $43.346 million for 2012. Thus, the remainder of the year, we will begin to analyze collections against this new total.
$5,000,000
Monthly Collections
$4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000
2010
$1,500,000
2011
$1,000,000
2012 2012 Revised Bdget
$500,000
In that light the 2012 receipts are now $0.74% – or $237,000 – above our 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec revised estimate. To date, a total of $32.038 million has been collected for all Funds compared to the budget of $31.801 million expected. Of course, the entire total is allocated to three Funds: General Fund and the two Police Tax Increment Funds. Approximately $204,100 of this total will be allocated to the General Fund. As the graph above illustrates, 2012 September collections (gray bar) are nearly equal to the 2012 Revised Estimate (orange line). The actual collections exceeded our new Revised Estimate in April, June, July, August and now September. The remainder of the months have been exceeding close to the revised estimate. (See Page 4) Another important perspective is to compare it to 2011. The graph above demonstrates our collections are exceeding 2010 and 2011 total collections. Through September of 2012 the total collections of $32.08 million are 5.78% higher than the total collections of $30.286 million for the same time period in 2011. Collections from public utilities and cable TV did impact the sales tax collections, at 13.72% lower in September of 2012 than 2011. (See Page 5) This area is reviewed in some detail in the source of sales taxes. This source comprises approximately 9.5% of the total sales tax revenue; thus, variations in cost or use can impact the City’s total revenue collections in noticable ways. As the remaining portions of the report demonstrate, the general retail portions of our base continue to do well. Again, we have changed the comparative sections of this report to reflect the revised revenue estimates in these three areas. Use tax collections in all three categories continue the same trend as illustrated all year. General Use Tax receipts are significantly lower than our Revised Budget – $551,418 short of the total with three months of collections remaining. We will not achieve the revised budget of $1.448 million. This was lowered during the budget process by $100,000 as Page 7 illustrates.
Total Receipts Through October $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $General 2012 Rev Budget
Auto YTD 2012
Auto Use tax estimates were revised upward to $5.097 million. As of September, a total of $4.149 – or 81.40% –of the revised budget assumption has been collected. We are trending somewhat above the revised estimate and expect to exceed our revised estimate.
Building YTD 2011
Building Use tax receipts reflect actually ten months of receipts, as the City collects them with the issuance of a building permit. As illustrated on Page 7 the original estimate of $1.557 million was increased to $2.283 million. As of October 31, a total of $2.255 – or 98.78% – of budget has been collected. We will be able to exceed this revised estimate, but we do not expect it to be a significant amount above the $2.283 million estimate.
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Sales Tax Receipts Detail
It is important to review the sales tax detail to determine the source of the revenue. First, the following graph provides the allocation of the sales tax to the two areas: General and Public Safety Tax Increment.
Total Receipts Through October $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $2007 Vtr Approved Police Sales Tax $3,984,632 General
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012 Budget
$4,070,742
$3,882,187
$3,915,818
$4,066,446
$4,345,262
$4,312,276
$25,993,165 $26,557,733 $25,317,809 $25,538,111 $26,219,986 $27,692,857 $27,489,170
The graph also provides comparisons through the years 2007 – 2012 Budget. We continue to examine the history from the onset of the Great Recession through today. Clearly, our sales tax receipts surpass our lowest levels of 2008 and 2009. We have now surpassed our highest year of collections in 2008. This graph also illustrates that we have collected more than our Revised Budget Estimates.
Types of Businesses
Page 5 provides detail of the significant number of types of businesses we analyze. For the purposes of this summary, we combine the following areas: Restaurants/Fast Food/and Fast Food Casual; Grocery and Health Food/Specialty; and Public Utilities and Telephone. We also combine Liquor Stores, Drug Stores, Auto Care, Office Supplies and Furniture into “All Others.”
Clothing Stores Restaurants & Fast Foods General Department Grocery/Health Utilities/Telecommunications Retail Hardware Auto Care Drug Stores All Others Total
Jan - Sept 2010 $740,686 $3,288,480 $5,326,754 $5,123,009 $4,905,452 $2,266,578 $1,242,764 $278,901 $6,301,424 $29,474,048
This month we took the opportunity to analyze the utility sales tax receipts. As mentioned, weather has a significant relationship to the actual collections. As the graph shows three months (June-August) have produced very large returns. The remaining six months have all been lower or at 2011 levels.
Jan - Sept 2011 $765,672 $3,403,654 $5,599,948 $5,188,569 $4,821,878 $2,173,732 $1,292,259 $299,009 $6,752,499 $30,297,220 $800,000 $700,000
Jan - Sept 2012 $766,471 $3,705,953 $5,896,033 $5,832,443 $4,851,941 $2,356,335 $1,358,839 $295,522 $6,974,579 $32,038,116
% Change 2011/2012 0.10% 8.88% 5.29% 12.41% 0.62% 8.40% 5.15% -1.17% 3.29% 5.75%
The table on the left includes rebates and late fees; thus, the total tax collections. Also, these numbers have been adjusted to “smooth” the collections from one major business. This business makes 13 payments, and the payment has already been made, but historically, it usually is paid in the July/August payments. Thus, these numbers do not match the Oracle receipts.
Monthly Utility Revenue Types
$600,000 $500,000 2009
$400,000
2010
$300,000
2011
$200,000
2012
$100,000 $-
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Information by Location
The following is a compilation of area shopping centers. Page 6 provides additional information. Jan - Sep '09 80th/Sheridan/Wadsworth 64th Eastside/Sheridan/Wadsworth 88th/Wadsworth 64th Westside/Ward/Indiana/McIntyre City Center/Olde Town
2011/2012 % Change $3,983,743 16.34% $1,213,762 2.04% $ 552,474 24.97% $3,673,977 5.97% $9,659,688 7.00%
Jan - Sep '10 Jan - Sep '11 Jan - Sep '12
$3,570,325 $1,201,028 $3,325,924 $8,703,649
$3,517,233 $1,146,897 $ 389,541 $3,304,898 $8,869,811
$3,424,262 $1,189,503 $ 442,099 $3,467,089 $9,027,367
2011-2012 $ Change $559,481 $ 24,259 $110,375 $206,888 $632,321
As illustrated, all areas of the City presented are increasing. Olde Town and City Center generate 30.15% of our total collections in 2012. The special analysis reviewed this month is the growth of sales tax receipts in the Olde Town area. The graph here clearly demonstrates that each month this year, the $90,000 monthly collections are significantly higher than Olde Town Monthly in any past month. For the $80,000 year, total receipts are Sales Tax Collections 13% higher than 20122. $70,000 As the graph shows, 2011 was a particularly $60,000 good year. These taxes do not include the new Arvada Tavern or Fuzzy 2009 Taco openings. They do, $50,000 however, include the other retail and food $40,000 proprietorships. 2010 $30,000
2011
$20,000
2012
$10,000 $-
Use Taxes
There are three types of use taxes: General, Auto and Building. The first two are collected one month in arrears; this means we have only eight months’ worth of collections. Building Use Tax is collected here at the City with the issuance of a building permit; thus the following graph provides nine Monthly Use Tax Collection Through September months’ of information. The graph provides information for six years. $10,000,000 As stated in the introduction, the only $9,000,000 concern is General Use tax. We have $8,000,000 $7,000,000 fallen to pre-Great Recession levels. $6,000,000 Businesses pay this tax when they are $5,000,000 adding interior things to their buildings $4,000,000 $3,000,000 (shelves, etc.) or for supplies for which $2,000,000 they have not paid tax. Generally, $1,000,000 $one would see this as an indicator of 12 Revised Jan - Sept '07 Jan - Sept '08 Jan - Sept '09 Jan - Sept '10 Jan - Sept '11 Jan - Sept '12 Bdgt increasing business. This is somewhat General $870,753 $1,186,406 $1,017,092 $1,044,437 $1,174,106 $896,582 $1,448,000 a concern. Auto
$4,155,295
$3,911,586
$3,445,996
$3,415,874
$3,773,067
$4,149,217
$5,097,294
Bldg
$1,590,294
$1,537,575
$1,859,803
$1,772,175
$1,845,416
$2,255,493
$2,283,308
Summary
After nine months of receipts, and assuming there will not be a fiscal meltdown due to external forces, the estimates to the end of the year continue to assume we will meet our budgeted estimates in every category except General Use tax. Obviously, we will have other revenues to offset the budget shortfalls in this category. Please call with any questions.
Happy Thanksgiving!!
Report Prepared By: Victoria A. Runkle Finance Director
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
THROUGH YTD
Sales/Receipts* Jan/Feb Feb/Mar Mar/Apr Apr/May May/June June/July July/Aug Aug/Sept Sept/Oct Oct/Nov Nov/Dec Dec/Jan
x 100000
4
Jan/Feb
Feb/Mar
Mar/Apr
Apr/May
2012 Actual
$ 4,345,262
$ 27,692,857
Total All Funds 2012 Budget $ 3,237,444 $ 3,113,773 $ 3,484,930 $ 3,288,598 $ 3,441,555 $ 3,580,323 $ 3,348,276 $ 3,584,647 $ 3,470,971 $ 3,321,166 $ 3,348,459 $ 4,421,613
May/June
June/July
11/13/2012
$
July/Aug
Aug/Sept
31,801,446
Sept/Oct
Oct/Nov
2011 Actual
$ 30,286,432
Nov/Dec
0.74%
Dec/Jan
5.78%
Total All Funds Total All Funds 2012 Actual 2012 vs 2011 2012 REVISED Budget 2011 Actual 012 REVISED Bud Actual $ 3,370,005 $ 3,106,192 -2.72% 5.54% $ 3,241,270 $ 3,058,870 -0.52% 5.41% $ 3,627,624 $ 3,426,845 -0.12% 5.73% $ 3,423,254 $ 3,308,172 0.88% 4.39% $ 3,582,474 $ 3,308,917 -1.15% 7.03% $ 3,726,924 $ 3,593,524 3.20% 7.03% $ 3,485,375 $ 3,353,428 1.60% 5.60% $ 3,731,425 $ 3,630,085 4.43% 7.35% $ 3,613,094 $ 3,500,400 0.56% 3.80% $ 3,457,155 $ 3,296,150 $ 3,485,566 $ 3,338,263 $ 4,602,662 $ 4,559,375
2012 Budget
32,038,119 $ 30,550,517
Police TI & T2 Total All Funds Fund 21,22 2012 Actual $ 444,046 3,278,198 $ 437,859 3,224,491 $ 492,679 3,623,236 $ 467,944 3,453,296 $ 479,735 3,541,401 $ 522,200 3,846,267 $ 479,415 3,541,160 $ 528,082 3,896,819 $ 493,303 3,633,252 0 0 0
General/Sales Funds 01/26 $ 2,834,152 $ 2,786,632 $ 3,130,557 $ 2,985,352 $ 3,061,666 $ 3,324,067 $ 3,061,745 $ 3,368,737 $ 3,139,949
ALL SALES TAX BY CATEGORY SEPTEMBER 2012 SALES / OCTOBER 2012 RECEIPTS AS OF NOVEMBER 8, 2012
September 2012
TOTAL
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Clothing Stores Fast Food Rests. Fast Casual Restaurants General Dept. Stores Grocery Chain Stores Health/Specialty Foods Public Utilities, Cable TV Restaurant / Lounges Retail Hardware Tele Equip/Service Liquor Stores Drug Stores/Pharmacies Auto Care / Leasing Office Sups./Equiq./Computer Furn./Appliance/Flooring All Others
Source of Sales Tax
Thousands
5 $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 3,633,251
Sep-12 99,907 148,506 57,698 609,592 644,417 20,050 281,023 206,117 252,096 220,677 93,266 30,241 168,430 71,597 103,271 626,364
Sep-12
$ 3,500,400
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Sep-11
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
YTD-2011
32,038,116 $
Total Sales YTD YTD-2012 766,471 1,255,157 535,435 5,896,033 5,681,805 150,638 2,896,558 1,915,361 2,356,335 1,955,383 820,776 295,522 1,358,839 586,810 746,878 4,820,116
YTD-2012
3.80%
Total Sales Total Sales % Chg. Sep-11 Sep 12-11 98,777 1.14% 144,695 2.63% 49,193 17.29% 597,959 1.95% 572,153 12.63% 16,183 23.89% 325,715 -13.72% 207,881 -0.85% 229,997 9.61% 213,302 3.46% 86,366 7.99% 31,379 -3.62% 153,470 9.75% 71,180 0.59% 98,962 4.35% 603,187 3.84% 30,297,220
1,953 391 78 16 3 1 0 0 0 0
5.75%
Total Sales YTD Total Sales YTD % YTD-2011 YTD 12-11 765,672 0.10% 1,183,702 6.04% 453,219 18.14% 5,599,948 5.29% 5,051,206 12.48% 137,363 9.66% 2,968,274 -2.42% 1,766,733 8.41% 2,173,732 8.40% 1,853,604 5.49% 742,171 10.59% 299,009 -1.17% 1,292,259 5.15% 631,537 -7.08% 679,776 9.87% 4,699,015 2.58%
11/13/2012
Thousands
ALL SALES TAX BY CATEGORY SEPTEMBER 2012 SALES / OCTOBER 2012 RECEIPTS AS OF NOVEMBER 8, 2012
Year-to-Date
ALL SALES TAX BY CATEGORY SEPTEMBER 2012 SALES / OCTOBER 2012 RECEIPTS AS OF NOVEMBER 8, 2012 Sep-12 Sales Tax
Area
Sep-11 Sales Tax
% Change Aug 12-11
2012 YTD Sales Tax
11/13/2012
2011 YTD Sales Tax
% Change YTD 12-11
64th & Indiana
$
70,145
$
36,156
94.01% $
456,027
$
326,159
39.82%
64th & McIntyre
$
199,123
$
200,845
-0.86% $
1,749,302
$
1,689,878
3.52%
64th & Sheridan
$
113,025
$
112,913
0.10% $
1,025,077
$
1,013,310
1.16%
64th & Wadsworth
$
21,050
$
18,238
15.42% $
188,685
$
176,193
7.09%
64th & Ward
$
165,890
$
161,760
2.55% $
1,468,648
$
1,451,052
1.21%
77th & Wadsworth
$
71,807
$
66,757
7.56% $
552,108
$
529,940
4.18%
80th & Sheridan
$
121,464
$
118,622
2.40% $
1,053,374
$
1,041,271
1.16%
80th & Wadsworth
$
329,611
$
282,974
16.48% $
2,930,369
$
2,382,991
22.97%
88th & Wadsworth
$
66,870
$
60,158
11.16% $
552,474
$
442,099
24.97%
City Center
$
960,684
$
943,325
1.84% $
9,125,432
$
8,556,390
6.65%
Olde Town
$
58,495
$
52,332
11.78% $
534,256
$
470,977
13.44%
AURA / Ralston Fields
$
11,880
$
11,462
3.64% $
98,501
$
101,532
-2.99%
AURA / Triangle
$
194,337
$
187,216
3.80% $
1,732,750
$
1,684,002
2.89%
TOTAL
$
2,384,381
$ 2,252,759
9.23% $
21,467,003
$
19,865,794
8.26%
64th Wadsworth/Sheridan
$
134,075
$
131,151
2.23% $
1,213,762
$
1,189,503
2.04%
80th Wadsworth/Sheridan
$
522,882
$
468,353
11.64% $
4,535,850
$
3,954,203
14.71%
64th Ward/Indiana/McIntyre
$
435,158
$
398,761
9.13% $
3,673,977
$
3,467,089
5.97%
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ALL SALES TAX BY CATEGORY SEPTEMBER 2012 SALES / OCTOBER 2012 RECEIPTS AS OF NOVEMBER 8, 2012
11/13/2012
Fund 01, 21, 22
YTD Revenue
Use Tax Admissions Auto Use Building Use Franchise Fee - Utility 41801 Franchise Fee - Cable 41803 Franchise Fee - Tele. HUTF TOTAL
$ $ $ $
Original Budget 2012
REVISED 2012 BUDGET
1,548,000 179,597 4,881,500 1,557,700
$ $ $ $
1,448,000 179,597 5,097,294 2,283,308
$
3,274,000
$
3,209,000 $
$ $ $
1,075,000 190,000 3,940,000
$ $ $
1,075,000 $ 190,000 $ 3,940,000 $
$
16,645,797
$
17,422,199
$ $ $ $
Use Tax
Admissions Auto Use
Building Use
896,582 135,311 4,149,217 2,255,493
1,174,106 115,043 3,773,067 1,845,416
61.92% 75.34% 81.40% 98.78%
$ $ $ $
(551,418) (44,286) (948,077) (27,815)
1,909,538 $
2,005,782
59.51% $
(1,299,462)
802,175 $ 148,598 $ 2,893,419 $
762,251 155,681 2,901,162
74.62% $ 78.21% $ 73.63% $ $ 75.71% $
(272,825) (41,402) (1,046,581) (4,231,866)
$ 13,190,333
YTD 2012
$4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $-
YTD 2012
$ $ $ $
YTD % 2012 Revised Revised to Budget to Actual Dollar YTD 2011 Actual Difference
$ 12,732,508
YTD 2011
Franchise Franchise Franchise Fee - Utility Fee - Cable Fee - Tele. 41801 41803
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HUTF
Finance Department • 8001 Ralston Road • Arvada, Colorado 80002 (720) 898-7120 • www.arvada.org
Contributors: Patrick Brown, Revenue Manager Carol Larimer, Financial Systems Analyst
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