Figure 3. The implementation concept

monitoring phase especially in a system that needs to work smoothly across multiple levels, from the continental to the regional, and the national to the local levels. • Figure 3 details the workflow of implementation of the system by identifying the four pillars of action that contribute to the overall system and that provide essential information to be consulted by the coordination operation room. The thematic components that need to be developed in parallel to one another and in connection with all the other initiatives include Risk Knowledge, Monitoring and Forecasting; Dissemination & Communication,

Preparedness & Response, including raising public awareness.

AUC DREA African Union Commission and Meteorology Unit DRR Unit DPA Department for Political Affairs

DSA AUC Department for Social Affairs

PSD Department for Peace and Security

ACMAD

RECS DRR

African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development

Regional Economic Communities Disaster Risk Reduction Unit

RECS CC

Regional Economic Communities Climate Centres

NDRMA National Disaster Risk Management Agencies NHMS National Hydro Meteorological Services

AUC DREA

AUC DREA AUC DREA AUC DREA ACMAD RECS DRR RECS CC

DRMA NHMS ACMAD DRMA NHMS DPA DSA PSD RECS DRR DRMA UN System, International Organizations and Governments

Figure 3. Implementation Concept for the Establishment of the Supranational Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in Africa for Early Action and Transboundary Risk

1. Risk knowledge is essential to determine the right scenarios to be addressed in the preparation phase and to assess the capacity to respond to the different possible scenario realizations. Important investments have already been made in developing national risk profiles. Country level probabilistic risk profiles are a strong asset when applied in support of a continental EWS. They need continuous improvement in order to be ready for use for multiple related applications. Quantitative risk profiles provide a measure of the risk, highlighting areas with high concentrations of potentially affected people, or at risk of physical and economic damages to infrastructures. Fully probabilistic risk profiles analyse all possible flood and drought loss scenarios. These scenarios, eventually used to produce the risk curve, can also be used as a basis for emergency planning. The scenarios, identified for the probabilistic risk assessment, provide a unique reference for understanding the

overall impact, its distribution in space and across sectors; they constitute an essential guidance to set up effective emergency plans that include citizen participation. The challenge resides in properly selecting, sharing and presenting the results of the studies to ensure their use in decision making and in the context of preparedness and response. 2. Monitoring and forecasting is a critical asset for the implementation of EWS. Without forecasting and monitoring capabilities, it is impossible to trigger timely actions to prevent or mitigate impacts of the forecasted event, as well as it would be impossible to manage emergency response. Associated tools require high levels of investments, including in monitoring stations. The overall investment needs to be assessed accurately and jointly with the GFCS investments at the AUC and REC level. It would be preferable to invest in new open and sustainable solutions, professionally tested in an operational environment and compliant with the envisaged international standards. 3. Dissemination and communication is essential for an effective EWS. This is intended as internal to the institutional system and external to the civil society organisation who are an active part of the system in the prevention, preparedness and response phase.

Technology is helpful in this case, but most important is the standardization of the messages in relation to the actions which they need to trigger. 4. In this respect the preparedness and response phases are the core of the EWS. Here, the link between the expected scenarios, the warnings and the actions to be taken in the field is clearly established and normed through the emergency plans preparation. The expression “Emergency Plans” (EP) here refers to plans to be established institutionally at different levels that address the information to be produced, to the way and timeliness for its exchange and to the actions tied to each communication. Exercises and drills are seen as an integral part of the EP implementation.

The above pillars need to be addressed in terms of their legal and institutional basis, as well as receive a constant and attentive capacity development able to target each component. Strategic importance is to be placed in the capacity development of organizations and their personnel. This is considered crucial for the ownership and the long-term sustainability of the results. A capacity building component will be directed to provide the necessary competences to the institutional actors participating in the four pillars described above. This will be addressed with dedicated workshops, exchanges of experts (North-South and South-South) and onthe-job training of the staff involved in operation rooms. A mechanism for the exchange of personnel in a working environment will be established so that staff from the national, regional and continental level can rotate to work side by side in operations, enabling the development of a common culture and an environment enhancing cooperating. This however is not deemed to be sufficient to support the program in the long term. Appropriate curricula need to be produced in Africa to feed into the system in the near future at different levels: operations, actionable research, assistance. It is therefore strategic to establish