1.2 Road map

in this component. Both the Civil Protection and INAMET collect and use historical data to build a database and to identify disaster impacts and weather anomalies. A national disaster loss database is being implemented. In terms of the knowledge itself however, no detailed hazard maps for floods and droughts are available. Disaster risk is qualitatively assessed, based on past experiences, but is present at all scales. At the local level, community leaders assess the degree of vulnerability based on personal experience. Safe areas are identified at a few sites (in Luanda), based on the local knowledge of Civil Protection officers. The integration of such experience based knowledge is also not done according to a structured procedure.

1.1.3 Monitoring and forecasting

Monitoring and forecasting in Angola is done by the INAMET (weather) and INRH (water resources). The monitoring of hydro-meteorological data, however, has a weak spatial coverage, with only a handful of active automatic stations. Some initiatives are ongoing to expand the national weather and hydrometric network and to meet the minimum density recommended by the WMO. The existing capacities to process real-time data are insufficient to guarantee an operational use of an EWS. Institutional mechanisms to manage real-time monitoring, forecasting and early warning are also not yet in place. Gabinete de Segurança Alimentar (under the Ministry of Agriculture) issues a bulletin every three months with a special focus on food security.

1.1.4 Communication and dissemination

Angola’s communication systems are well organized: procedures and infrastructure are in place which are adequate to communicate, update situational analysis and coordinate civil protection at local and national levels when an event has occurred or is ongoing. INAMET uses various transmission media (radio, phone, newspapers) to disseminate forecasting information to the population. However, this dissemination is not part of a comprehensive civil protection communication strategy. Warning messages are not linked to a contingency plan and they are only generated after an event has occurred. Moreover, there are no mechanisms in place to check whether information reaches the targeted population.

1.1.5 Preparedness and response

Angola conducts public awareness campaigns to inform the population on how to react in the case of emergencies, which contributes to its preparedness. However, specific preparedness plans currently only exist for sparse pilot sites. Actions in these places are based on a situation analysis performed during a disaster event and lessons learned are incorporated into existing plans.

The analysis of the existing system in Angola highlights that the country currently has a good organization, both in terms of roles (Civil Protection and Fire Brigades) and communication procedures (equipment and agreements with media) to respond to natural hazards,

although the response phase starts only during or immediately after the event. Under this lens, it would be advisable to develop Early Warning Systems in order to anticipate the response of the institutions and achieve a more effective reduction of negative impacts.

1.2.1 Recommendations

The well-established disaster management institutional framework represents a solid basis for the implementation of the EWS. The inter-ministerial National Commission of Civil Protection (Comissão Nacional de Protecçāo Civil - CNPC) plays a key role in the coordination of all disaster risk management aspects and should facilitate the coordination during the implementation of multi-sectoral aspects of the EWS. Several aspects must be considered and improved, in order to implement an effective and tailored Early Warning System at the national level:

i) risk knowledge must be strengthened, based on quantitative data and consolidated to support preparedness and warning activities; ii) the existing monitoring network needs to be further implemented and improved, and will benefit from the several ongoing initiatives to install new automated and traditional stations for monitoring-forecasting, although those might not yet be enough to cover fully the territory; iii) no systematic warnings are conveyed to the population and actions are put in place mainly in the occurrence of an adverse event; iv) in the absence of systematic mapping and monitoring, emergency and preparedness plans need to be developed. Archives of historical data related to flood and drought impacts being reorganized to be suitable for incorporation into risk maps; national plans5 have established policies mandating risk assessment, but they have not yet been fully implemented. In order to consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans, a complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping for the whole territory should be developed. This action should ideally be coordinated by the SNPCB, in strong cooperation with other key institutions such as INAMET, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and Water (in particular the National Institute for Water Resources, INRH), Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, and Academia. According to the analysis and the outcomes of stakeholder consultations, the priority of the implementation of the EWS at the national level is to strengthen the monitoring and forecasting system. This includes: • setting-up an adequate monitoring and forecasting service, including increasing automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge), • the training of personnel, • creating 24-hour operational warning centres, • creating fail-safe systems and standardized procedures for issuing warnings.

5 Presidential Decree n. 30/16 approving the Strategic Plan for the prevention and reduction of disaster risk within the framework of the national development plan 2013-2017.

In this process, INAMET is a key player together with SNPCB and INRH. Under the coordination role of SNPCB, dissemination and communication of warnings could also be improved in order to reach the population with impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. The current communication system used in the response phase can be adapted to the warning phase. This objective should be achieved with the support of the Provincial Commissions of Civil Protection, INAMET, Ministry of Agriculture (in particular the Gabinete de Segurança Alimentar), Ministry of Energy and Water (in particular the National Institute for Water Resources-INRH), Ministry of Health and Ministry of Education, Ministry of Social Communication. The same national institutions, and including the Municipal Commissions of Civil Protection should actively engage to design a framework for pre-event activation of emergency plans.

1.2.2 Priorities The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Angola’s national context. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance

Priority 1) Strengthen institutional and legal framework on EWS (this will improve all 4 components)

2) Strengthen risk knowledge Priority Description

An effective Early Warning and Action system needs to be based on a solid institutional framework with a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities among institutions and organizations at different administrative levels. Angola’s national and provincial civil protection commissions have a strong coordination mandate, which should be further operationalized with specific regulations. Operational procedures should be developed for the preparation of multi-hazard warnings, dissemination, and related actions at all administrative levels. Support the institutionalization of the National Early Warning System within the existing legal framework, including common policy on data exchange.

Risk awareness among organizations and individuals are the foundation of any Early Warning System and require a sound knowledge of risk. Risk awareness and knowledge requires a multi-level approach, encompassing national organizations, civil societies and the general public. In Angola, the existing risk information is not yet systematically organized, which limits the accessibility and data sharing among stakeholders (institutions, practitioners and the general public). The improvement of disaster loss databases, to include economic losses disaggregated by sectors and provinces, would be key in guaranteeing accessibility and strengthening risk knowledge at the national level. Organization of existing risk knowledge and information into a single national database. A centralized database would serve multiple stakeholders in order to inform decisions and actions along the entire disaster risk management cycle. It should aim to improve accessibility to risk information for both organizations and practitioners. Mainstreaming and integrating existing risk knowledge at the national and sub-national levels among organizations and individuals.

Development of further risk knowledge through risk assessment and mapping. The risk profile for floods and droughts should be downscaled to the local level and extended to other significant risks in the country, such as epidemics. There is a need to develop risk scenarios at local and national scales in order to properly inform emergency planning actions.

Proposed Actions

3) Improve monitoring and forecasting system

INAMET provides services in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is a good cooperation with the Regional Climate Services and new reinforcing initiatives are being implemented with the support of bilateral (e.g. Meteo France International) and multilateral cooperation projects (e.g. FRESAN). The INRH has the responsibility for water resource management, however the capacity for real-time monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions still needs to be strengthened. Strengthening of the real-time monitoring system for both meteorological and hydrological conditions: to be achieved through the installation of new stations and the automation of existing ones. Real-time transmission of data is key for flood monitoring. Traditional stations can be complemented with Open Hardware. INAMET capacities and human resources should be guaranteed to ensure maintenance of the meteo-hydrological network at the national level.

Development of operational hydrological modelling. Hydrological modelling needs to be developed for all main rivers in Angola and can serve multiple purposes including flood and drought forecasting and water management. A flash-flood forecasting system is also required, especially in densely populated urban areas (e.g. Luanda). Integration of existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance due to the lack of in situ data, as in the case of Angola, and they should be considered a starting point in the improvement of the national monitoring and forecasting systems. Integration of remote sensing dataset. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used in meteorological, hydrological, drought monitoring and forecasting. Development of capacities for impact-based forecasting. An impact-based forecasting and warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector and location-specific impacts, considering exposure and possibly vulnerabilities. This would facilitate the identification of mitigation actions for reducing those impacts. Impact-based forecasts should be a joint work of SNPCB, INAMET, INRH and the Ministry of Agriculture. National drought monitoring system that integrates and specializes the input of Regional Climate Centres. National drought monitoring would provide detailed data. The national drought monitoring system can initially rely on satellite and global/regional dataset and can be later enriched by the integration of newly available sensors over time.

4) Further Develop Communication and dissemination

5) Improve Preparedness and capacity response

Dissemination and Communication of warnings are critical before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between the system monitoring phase and its response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach populations at risk, are understood by them, and that can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster. Standardized procedures to also use the current response communication infrastructure for early warning purposes (i.e. to convey warning messages from national to local levels). The existing multiple channel approach should be emphasized and re-adapted to preparedness needs. Depending on the local conditions, warnings can be disseminated through multiple and parallel channels from sms to email, social networks and low-cost broadcasting technology (radio, flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and can be tailored to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the general public. Development of a uniform and integrated communication system for alerting the population (i.e. colour code warning). The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and should clearly identify “who communicates what” . Extreme attention must be given to developing a communication system able to translate complex technical and scientific information into a common language that can be understood by the population. Indigenous knowledge, civil society in general and national and local organizations (schools, youth associations, etc.), can effectively contribute to improve and disseminate risk communication.

Communities need to be ready to respond in case the risk becomes a reality. The response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself in order to reduce its impacts. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions. Community-based emergency planning linked to the national warning. SNPCB should be responsible for providing guidelines for the implementation of emergency plans at the local level. Emergency plans should be designed considering specific local hazard, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach. Practice and exercise (e.g. multiscale field/tabletop exercises). Regular exercises should be planned to test the response capacity of the institutions and population. Public awareness campaigns should be carried out to inform the population about potential impacts, behaviours to be adopted and actions to be taken in case of warnings.

6) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple scales for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-gis platform, with an accessible database would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access information in real-time. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Under this lens, each institution at the regional, national or provincial levels should ideally have access to the same shared open source web-GIS platform, according to their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information used in the risk profile (such as exposure, vulnerability, hazard maps, etc.) may also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant data about monitoring and outlook through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level). Design and implementation of regulations to ensure data accessibility and sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, in order to ensure that data is effectively channelled among institutions.

Integration of risk information and data into a shared platform. Risk information should be incorporated into the shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions. Integration of past event records into the platform. Centralized loss database (e.g. Desinventar) should be connected to the platform. Integration of all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset. Warning messages (bulletins) preparation. Specific technological tools, integrated into the platform, should facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages. Response plan preparation and systematization. A specific module should be dedicated to the activation of the emergency plan and the verification of all predefined actions.