3.2 Road map

3.1.5 Preparedness and response

UR Tanzania has integrated disaster risk reduction education into its education system, helping create more awareness among youth and increasing the country’s preparedness to disasters. That being said, most of the population does not have the technical capability to translate and understand warnings messages correctly or react appropriately. Education and awareness campaigns attempts through television and radio programmes have tried to rectify this, but it remains an important issue to be addressed. Related to this is the absence of preparedness plans for the majority of district councils. Initiatives have been made in pilot sites to link the severity of the warning issued to appropriate actions, yet these have not been implemented throughout the country.

The analysis of the existing system in UR Tanzania highlights well established roles and responsibilities and a good knowledge of the main weather related hazards in the country. The Authorities are well trusted and they recognize the crucial value of the ‘last-mile connectivity’ in warning communication. Warning messages are clearly linked to response actions with increasing detail as they move to local level, but there is lack of contingency planning.

3.2.1 Recommendations

From an organizational and institutional point of view, UR Tanzania’s present road map builds on a solid basis. All institutions involved in the EWS phases are committed to their mandate and some resources (human and budgetary) are recognized by the government in support of the institutions’ respective mandates. However, improvements are necessary in all the four components of the EWS. This is particularly the case for the implementation of the prevention and preparedness tools foreseen in the legislation. Emergency plans foreseen by the law to be at any level do not show the same level of implementation across the country. Dar es Salaam initiative started with funding from Regional Commissioner's Office in 2011 and letter from PMO 2012-14 which involved development of DARMAERT EPRP and establishment of EOC and cureently support from WB has been on review of the DarMAERT EPRP, training and municipal level EPRP is at initial stage. Also between 2011 to 2018 there have been capacity building in 20 districts which have Emergency Preparedness and Response plans. It is recommended to focus on the completion of the municipals Emergency plans for all district councils, using already existing experience. Risk knowledge, in its quantitative aspect, is not fully considered in the preparedness actions and in the preparation of emergency plans and therefore, it is recommended to consider this quantitative aspect when developing the emergency plans. Warning messages are only loosely connected with impact scenario descriptions, which results in actions recommended to the population being too general. A closer connection between

the severity of the forecasted event, its impact and the actions recommended at different levels, from the civil protection system, down to the population should be sought. The available risk knowledge is sparse and insufficiently consolidated to support preparedness and warning activities and its dissemination could be improved. UR Tanzania has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. Archives of historical data related to flood and droughts, as well as for other hazards, are being updated and plans to incorporate them into risk maps exist. This is clearly reflected in the newly developed national DRR strategy under adoption. The country should also complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping for the whole territory to identify threats and potential consequences and consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans. Based on the institution responsible for this task is the PMO-DMD which coordinate the other institutions involved and who can provide scientific and technical support to the risk assessment process. UR Tanzania should aim at improving the monitoring and forecasting services by increasing the use of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge) and initiating advancements in the technological and scientific tools in support of the monitoring and forecast system. UR Tanzania should aim at improving the operational capacity of the EOC that should provide a 365/24/7 service implementing fail-safe systems and standardized procedures for the issuing of warnings. The responsibility should fall once again on PMO-DMD, in collaboration with TMA and MoW, in support of the multi-level system. Initiatives have been established to strengthen the coordination between PMO-DMD, TMA and MoW in data exchange during emergencies. However, such initiatives only reached a certain level of implementation and should be continued to consolidate a sustainable result. Operational hydrology is a mandate of MoW and activities have commenced at pilot sites. However, the process is in its early stages; it should be considered as a priority action. Dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved, under the coordination role of PMO, in order to be able to reach populations with timely, impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. The hierarchical organization in place is the perfect vehicle for these messages, but improvements are needed in the means used for communication and in the connection between messages, the expected scenario and the related action.

3.2.2 Priorities

The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering UR Tanzania’s national context and the stakeholder consultations’ outcomes. The priorities listed below are not meant to be in order of importance.

Priority 1) Consolidate risk knowledge

2) Improve the monitoring and forecasting system Priority Description

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. A wealth of information on risk is currently available but it requires more systematic organisation by the national authorities. Hence, practitioners and the general public continue to have limited access to relevant risk information. The understanding of risk is foundational to any Early Warning System. Awareness should further be high among organizations and individuals who are part of the EWS. The country level quantitative risk profile for floods and droughts developed by DMD-PMO in partnership with the CIMA Foundation and UNDRR is a solid basis of scientific information on disaster risk. Its results are relevant for multiple stakeholders and their use should be emphasised. The by-products of the risk profile provide important inputs for other types of analysis depending on the need of other DRR stakeholders. Continue to fine tune existing and develop new risk knowledge (risk assessment and mapping). The risk profile for flood and drought risk is a solid basis, but it does not cover other key hazards for UR Tanzania. The risk profile should be downscaled at the local level. There is a need to develop risk scenarios at the local and national scales to inform emergency planning that should fully integrate Early Warnings and Action.

Organize existing risk knowledge and information into a single national database that can serve as a risk information clearing house and can be used by multiple stakeholders to inform decisions and actions across the full disaster risk management cycle. It would aim to improve the accessibility of risk information for both the organizations and the practitioners. This unique central standardized repository for risk information (in digital open source GIS format), accessible to all relevant institutions, would improve the use of produced risk knowledge. This initiative should be connected with the provisions in the e-Government Act, 2019.

Mainstream and raise awareness of existing risk knowledge at the national and sub-national level for organizations and for individuals. Promote the use of risk information for mitigation (flood and drought) in plans and policy tools, (e.g. in the emergency plans for the identification of evacuation zones and safe shelters (for floods).

Monitor local government authorities achievement on the integration of the risk knowledge in preparedness and response plan.

The Tanzania Meteorological Authority has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is good cooperation with Regional Climate Services and new initiatives are being implemented in the framework of the Global Environmental Fund. The Ministry of Water has the responsibility for water resource management, however the capacity for monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions is at its starting point and needs to be strengthened. Develop capacities for impact based Early Warnings. An impact-based Forecast and Warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector and location- specific impacts and facilitates the identification of mitigation actions for reducing those impacts. Impact-based forecasts must be a joint work of TMA, MoW and PMO.

Improve systematic and real-time data and information sharing among institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during emergencies. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange. The pilot demonstration using the platform MyDewetra showed the added value of using open web-GIS platforms for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 5). The technological tool needs to be complemented by a data exchange procedure among different organizations at both the national and international level.

Proposed Actions

2) Improve the monitoring and forecasting system

Strengthen the real-time monitoring system , including for transboundary monitoring, for both meteorological and hydrological conditions by automating existing stations and through additional installation of new automated stations. Real-time transmission of data is also key for flood monitoring. Open hardware stations can be a valid solution for disaster management. They can be adapted to the needs of the different sites; they do not require a maintenance fee; maintenance can be handled directly by the owner (i.e. staff of national or local organizations properly trained).

Develop operational hydrological modelling. Operational hydrology is a younger discipline than operational meteorology and climatology and is less developed. The Ministry of Water within the framework of the project “Strengthening Climate Information and Early Warning Systems in UR Tanzania for Climate Resilient Development and Adaptation to Climate Change” developed hydrologic operational models in two pilot basins. The effort needs to be consolidated in order to be sustainable and expanded to the other part of the Tanzanian river basins. It is recommended that the MoW invest in human resources dedicated to this task. The hydrological modelling will be fed by the TMA forecasts and observation data, meaning that TMA and MoW will need to cooperate even more closely than they are cooperating currently.

Develop operational hydrological modelling for all main rivers in UR Tanzania under the responsibility of MoW to inform both flood and drought forecasts. There is also a need to develop a Flash Floods forecasting system. Flash Floods forecasting is a joint responsibility of TMA and MoW.

Improve tools for the delivery of user-specific weather and climate information.

Integrate existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance for complementing existing automatic stations in UR Tanzania, as in many countries in Africa.

Integration of remote sensing datasets. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used in meteorological and hydrological monitoring and forecasting.

3) Further develop communication and dissemination

The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach populations at risk, are understood by them, and will enable them to act, thereby reducing the impact of a disaster. Develop a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population. An activity on Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) compliance is ongoing and should be strengthened. The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios. It should clearly target different categories of the population with different needs during emergencies. Extreme attention should be given to the development of a communication system able to translate a complex technical and scientific information into simple language so as to make sure that the information is understood by the entire population. Civil societies and national and local organizations (school, youth associations, etc.) can effectively contribute to improving communication and complement it with local knowledge. The improvement of the warning communication system should also include the elaboration of actions that verify that warnings have been received. This can be fulfilled in a formal agreement with the media (private sector) along the lines of collaborations already existing in UR Tanzania.

Adopt multiple channels of communication. There are many available technologies that can serve as reliable communication channels, however in community and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results in transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS to emails, and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (Flags, boards, whistles and megaphones). These can further be adapted to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the general population.

Develop automated systems for issuing warnings for events which have a short time frame. Although the capillarity of the waring communication mechanism in UR Tanzania is remarkable, improvements should be sought in the timeliness for receiving messages that nowadays relies heavily on formal written communications at many levels of the chain.

Raise awareness of communities about the different communication systems and channels available so as to increase the efficiency of EWS related actions.

Strengthen interagency protocols for data exchange and improve the consistency of the current warning language, in order to ameliorate the circulation of information among the key institutions.

4) Improve preparedness and response capacity

Communities need to be ready to respond in case risk becomes a reality. In order to reduce the impact of disasters, response actions should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions. Develop emergency plans for the whole country based on risk information so as to define scenarios for possible severities linked and link these to mitigation strategies (e.g. evacuation) and targeted warnings (based on severity). This development should be overseen by DMD-PMO. Emergency plans should be designed considering specific local hazards, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach and integrate Early Warning and Action systems for both slow and sudden disasters (floods, flash floods, droughts, etc.)

Country risk profiles should form the basis for the preparation of emergency plans.

Design and hold regular exercises and drills (e.g. multiscale field/table-top exercises) to test the response capacity of the institutions and of the population. The drills should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors, as well as the efficiency of equipment and its redundancy.

Carry out public awareness campaigns to inform the citizens about potential impacts, behaviours and actions to be taken in case of warnings. The public awareness campaigns should be developed in partnership with the communities they aim to reach.

To enhance the effectiveness of emergency plans, reinforce the already available education and awareness campaigns, instructing people how to distinguish between different warning severities: specifically how to respond according to the different types of warnings and alerts.

5) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform, with an accessible database - with relevant and up-to-date information on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, as well as, importantly, relevant results layers from different types of complementary risk assessments - would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access and analyse information in real-time. The MyDewetra Platform established in UR Tanzania as part of a pilot project, could be a starting point and should be integrated with other initiatives under the coordination of PMO. Modern technologies offer practical solutions to improve data exchange, foster systematic and real-time data/information sharing among different institutions. Institutions at the regional, national and provincial level would greatly benefit from access to the same, shared web-GIS platform, supporting their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data used for the production of risk profiles as well as their actual results can be used in real-time to assess the impacts of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant monitoring and outlook data through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, local level). Creation of a shared platform for the integration of risk information. Risk information should be incorporated in a shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions. In creating the platform, a strong and functional connection should be established with the NSDI (National Spatial Data infrastructure) envisaged in the e-Government Act, 2019. The platform should form an integrated system with the governmental data sharing platform and should be able to pull all important data information from the NSDI.

Design and implement regulations to ensure data accessibility and sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, to ensure that data is effectively channelled among institutions. This is envisaged by law in the e-Government Act, 2019.

Integration records about past disaster events into the platform. Centralized disaster loss databases (e.g. DesInventar) should be connected to the platform.

Integrate all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset.

Prepare warning messages (bulletins) making use of specialised functions made available and integrated into the platform, which can facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages.