5.3 Road map

a connection with existing leading academic bodies already involved in education in the DRR context and tailor courses at different levels so that they can transfer the necessary knowledge to maintain and help evolve the system that will be put in place. The envisaged system is articulated on different levels, from continental to regional and national to local, and should receive coordinated support by different stakeholders that have developed consolidated experience and capacity in Africa in the DRM context such as the different UN Agencies, the International Organizations and governments outside the African Union. Important partnerships need to be facilitated in order to enhance South-South and NorthSouth cooperation.

Based on the considerations above, a road map has been designed taking into consideration information provided during official gap analysis missions undertaken by UNDRR and CIMA (AUC, IGAD, SADC, Angola, Ethiopia, UR Tanzania Zambia, ACMAD) and during the multistakeholder consultation meeting organized in January 2020.

The partners envisaged for the implementation of this road map, through activities to develop or strengthen existing systems include:

1. African Union Commission

2. ACMAD

3. Regional Economic Communities

4. Member States

The road map is composed of nine activities described below. Its implementation is enabled and supported by open source technology; myDEWETRA has been tested and designated is a possible technological choice. How myDEWETRA can support the road map is described in the concluding paragraph of this session. The Road Map is envisaged to be implemented over a mid-term time horizon.

Activity Activity 0 –Coordination and Management

Activity 1 - Natural Hazard Early Warning and Preparedness Baseline Financing Mechanism Including Legal Framework and Institutional Assessment

Activity 2 –Continental Coordination Function Activity Description

This activity encompasses the administrative and financial management, as well the project quality assurance. Efficient management procedures and managerial bodies will be established to ensure the success of the project as a whole. Other objectives of this activity relate to the monitoring of the overall project progress and the quality of the results, the coordination of work and information flow between activities, as well as the organization of the kick-off meeting and periodical internal meetings. EXPECTED RESULT

Financial Management and Reporting, Project Management and Internal Reporting INDICATORS

Meetings and reports are timely compiled and available KEY DELIVERABLES

Financial Reports, Project Management Reports

The aim of this activity is to build a baseline for the project that focuses on the current setup of AUC and the key regional and national actors in respect to natural hazard early warning and preparedness. The activity will analyse both the legal and the institutional aspects, identifying current roles and responsibilities as determined by the law and the by-laws or by common practice. It will identify strengths and gaps that will be the focus of the road map itself. The analysis will also lead to the identification of possible financial sustainability mechanisms for the overall system. EXPECTED RESULT

Identification of strengths and weaknesses in the present continental and regional EWS INDICATORS

Establishment of a natural hazard early warning and preparedness baseline

KEY DELIVERABLES

Natural hazard early warning and preparedness baseline report, community of practice to ensure legal and institutional arrangements and the involvement of the key stakeholders at the continental and regional level (network established), financial mechanism identified.

The baseline established in activity 1 is an essential step in designing the coordination function inside AUC and in relation to the RECs and the MS. This coordination function will be assisted by the technical operation room that will be implemented during other activities within the project. The coordination function will include an internal reorganization in AUC of the already existing resources that already have a role in the EWS against natural hazards, as well as the establishment of roles, responsibilities, resources and functions between AUC, REC-RCCs, MS and the international partners. The coordination role includes a coordination mechanism for improving the exchange of information among continental, regional and national authorities and the development of a harmonized system for warnings at the continental level for informing decision makers and international communities on ongoing and up-coming hazards. EXPECTED RESULT

Key roles, actions and resources determined at the continental level

INDICATORS

Implementation plan for the identified coordination mechanism

KEY DELIVERABLES

AUC coordination policy designed and related financing mechanism identified on the basis of the analysis in Activity 1

Activity Outcomes

Activity 3 – Set up of the continental operation room

Activity 4 –Continental overview of risk

The aim is to create a physical operation room (the African coordination centre) in support of a situation room (the Africa situation room) that will be responsible for the decisions on possible actions from the continental to the national level.

AUC will be equipped with a 24/7 situation room to facilitate exchange, monitoring and analysis of DRR data and information through an open source platform similar to the My Dewetra platform*, developed by the Italian Civil Protection and the CIMA Research Foundation and endorsed by WMO and African stakeholders. This activity will also design a system of interrelated operation rooms: the African Situation Room, the African Coordination Centre, the Regional Situation rooms connected to the African Coordination Centre. ToRs for equipment, software and personnel recruitment will be developed. This will be supported by targeted missions in the AUC and the RECs by international and local experts that will closely follow the operation room setup. Equipment will

be procured and deployed as well as and the connections between the continental level (AUC & ACMAD), the regional situation rooms (IGAD-ICPAC, SADC-CSC and others) will be established.

*MyDewetra was officially requested by the African Union Commission through a letter from the Chair of the African Union, sent to the Italian Prime Minister. EXPECTED RESULT

The physical room is activated, and the communication mechanism is active

INDICATORS

Continental Operation Room and related system established

KEY DELIVERABLES

The African Situation Room, the African Coordination Centre, the Regional Situation Rooms are established and connected, and the relevant staff trained.

Risk profiles have been developed for at least 24 countries in Africa following a similar methodology (Probabilistic Risk Profiles). They hold key information for the management of disasters, as they identify hotspots and scenarios that can be linked to unfolding events in order to determine the possible upcoming impacts. This activity intends to keep on developing and updating such risk profiles and use them for two main purposes:

● To develop a continental risk atlas that can be used to guide continental strategies in relation to natural hazards informing also the financial mechanism at continental level;

● To link the topical scenarios identified by the profiles with actions on the field during upcoming events or during events already unfolding. EXPECTED RESULT

Mechanism for risk profiles development and update established in all African countries. Methodology for their use designed and established.

INDICATORS

Number of profiles developed/updated/used

KEY DELIVERABLES

Overview of risk document / African Risk report

Activity 5 –Monitoring and forecasting capability enhancement

Activity 6 –Dissemination and communication

The aim is to further develop the relevant institutions’ capacities for the monitoring and forecasting of natural hazards and their impacts with a special focus on displaced populations. Specifically, capacity development activities will target continental, regional and national organizations to envisage the development of new operational tools for monitoring and forecasting of extreme hazard events (mainly flood, storms, wildfires and droughts) in Africa. This will be done in partnership with continental and regional centres (ACMAD and RECs). The operational tools will be operated by trained staff and used for the daily operation of the Emergency Coordination Platform.

Strengthening impact-based flood monitoring and forecasting capabilities is a key objective of this activity and this will be achieved by implementing a probabilistic hydrological forecasting system and flash flood forecasting system at the regional scale where deemed relevant. Through intensive training courses, capacity will be developed in the RECs for the implementation and maintenance of the system. Selected staff from RCCs will be hosted in internationally recognised operational centres and will collaborate on the implementation of the regional operational hydrometeorological model that will be used for the bulletin production.

A similar activity will be developed for the forest fire forecasting system. EXPECTED RESULT

Models for forecast and monitoring implemented and tested on historical events

INDICATORS

Model runs available daily to the operation room.

KEY DELIVERABLES

Monitoring and forecasting data and models accessible for staff members of the Operation room. SOPs for hazards monitoring, forecasting and scenarios development, including assessment of potential impacts.

SoPs will be agreed by all relevant stakeholders for the production and dissemination of targeted information to institutions and populations, including through the setup of IT applications for weather-related impact bulletins. Assistance to operators will be given to ensure that they are properly trained in the bulletin production and the use of IT systems in support of such an activity. Awareness campaigns will also be designed and implemented so that the bulletins can be received by the institutions and the population in an effective way. For the dissemination for the bulletins and warning messages, specific focus will be given to broadcast tools on smart mobile devices. EXPECTED RESULT

SoPs are established and used with the support of IT platforms

INDICATORS

Bulletins are produced and disseminated on a regular basis

KEY DELIVERABLES

SoPs for dissemination and communication are established, public awareness campaigns are designed (in cooperation with AUC, RECs and MS), media Training, AFRICA-Alert

Activity 7 –Linking warnings to actions

Activity 8 –Capacity building and development

Standard Operating Procedure for the African Situation Room, Coordination Centre and Regional rooms will be developed and tested. The SoPs will determine actions flowing from the continental to the regional and national level, in case of dangerous events approaching and unfolding. SoPs will be agreed upon by the AUC and all key actors in the system with the support of international experts, and formalized in a technical document endorsed at the ministerial level by Hydro-Met and DRR-DRM authorities. EXPECTED RESULT

The SoPs for the situation room and the coordination centre are developed and applied regularly INDICATORS

SoPs developed KEY DELIVERABLES

SoPs linked with the institutional actions and procedures across levels, links to the National emergency plans established

Capacity development is considered crucial for the long-term sustainability of the outputs/results. A capacity building component will be directed to provide the necessary competences to the institutional actors participating in the project. This will be addressed with dedicated workshops, exchanges of experts (North-South and South-South) and on-the-job training of the staff involved in the operation room. A mechanism for the exchange of personnel in a working environment will be established so that staff from the national, regional and continental levels will rotate to work in the operation rooms. The AUC training centre will be set-up in support of the dedicated capacity building component linked to the operation room. The AUC Training centre education program will be designed. The education program will encompass formations on bulletin preparation, the coordination room procedures and SoPs, as well as the situation awareness preparation. The program will take advantage of already existing initiatives and meetings such as the Regional Climate Outlook Forums. Training of Trainers (ToT) for the AUC training centre to AUC and RECs staff that will become the reference training people. Training material will be prepared connected to the ToT as well as the preparation of courses and course delivery. This, however, is not deemed to be sufficient to support the program in the long term. Appropriate curricula need to be produced in Africa to feed into the system in the near future at different levels: operations, actionable research, assistance. It is therefore strategic to establish a connection with existing leading academic bodies already involved in education in DRR and tailor courses at different levels so that they can transfer the necessary knowledge to maintain and help evolve the system that will be put in place. EXPECTED RESULT

Capacity building in EWS at the continental level is established to support the system of operation rooms created and to ultimately reduce risk deriving from natural hazards on the African continent.

INDICATORS

AUC Training centre established; Training programs established and delivered; Academic specialized Curricula developed with the African academic network.

KEY DELIVERABLES

AUC Training centre; AUC Training programs; Academic specialized curricula developed with the African academic network.