Third Quarter Market Report 2021 | Christie's International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass

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SU M M IT

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SUMMIT COLORADO THIRD QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Nationally

By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Despite early hopes for a spectacular Q3, cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19 began to rise throughout July and August and economic projections progressively worsened. We are likely to end up with 21Q3 GDP growth of around 3%, which is quite disappointing compared to the 7% we initially forecast. Some of the pent-up demand for consumer spending that we were unable to satisfy in 21Q3 will shift forward into 21Q4, so all is not lost. I expect that 21Q4 GDP growth will be around 5%, supported by continuing job growth and pent-up demand. We are also hopefully seeing something of an “end” to the pandemic phase of covid, and while it will undoubtedly remain an ongoing public health concern, with a full 57% of the population vaccinated and a considerable number with at least some level of natural immunity due to prior exposure, the chances of a wintertime surge again this year look unlikely. Overall, for 2021 I expect GDP growth to come in around 5%, well above our pre-covid trend of around 2-2.25%. Looking even further into the future, GDP growth for 2022 and 2023 will continue to slow toward normal, such that by the end of 2023, we should be back around 2-2.25%.

“A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown.”

Job growth, while solid, is uninspiring but is likely to improve as covid numbers steadily recede. I expect to see monthly job growth, on average, of about 350,000 jobs per month through the end of 2022. Inflation remains a real problem, although there are signs that we may have seen the peak. Still, since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified and the term “ephemeral” may be more applicable. Supply chain bottlenecks continue to be complicated and widespread, and “just-in-time” supply chain management has become “just-in-case” hoarding. The trajectory of inflation now appears to be higher for longer than we previously anticipated.

In terms of Federal Reserve Bank actions, expansionary monetary policy will begin coming to an end as early as November of this year, and no later than January of 2022, when the Fed begins to taper its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The tapering process will presumably end in either Q2 or Q3 of 2022, and sometime after that, the Fed will begin raising interest rates, which could be as early as late 2022, conditioned on prevailing inflationary pressures. Similarly, fiscal policy is now quite contractionary, and starting in 21Q2, began reducing GDP by about 2.5%/annum, the most contractionary stance in decades. This is likely to last at least another 12 months.

A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown.

Relatedly, two large spending bills are being negotiated, along with the next iteration of the debt ceiling debate.

The stock market has, at least so far, taken things in stride, aided by solid earnings. Regardless of what is ultimately negotiated in terms of spending and tax increases, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the markets, as the contours of a deal are becoming increasingly clearer.

Nationally, the housing market continues to do very well and is unquestionably strong. That said, we may be seeing some slight signs of slowing as inventories finally begin to rise just a bit. This is more indicative of a market that is settling into a normal, healthy pattern instead of the frenetic pace we saw in the last half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Year-over-year metrics are suffering simply in comparison to the overheated market we experienced last summer and fall. Prices will remain strong, although likely with slower price appreciation going forward.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado

Unemployment in Colorado hit a peak of 12.1% in April 2020 and has since declined to 5.9% as of 08/2021, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 28,661 for the week ending 09/25/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 188,027 for the week ended 6/6/20, have generally declined since, and with the expiration of federal benefits, are at just 121 for the week ending 9/18/21. In Pitkin County, the May unemployment rate of 9.1% is, unsurprisingly, still elevated compared to May 2019’s 5.9%. The August 2021 unemployment rate is 4.7%, compared to 2.2% in August 2019, indicative of a shrinking unemployment rate gap as conditions slowly improve. These elevated unemployment rates belie the real problems many employers continue to face in recruiting and retaining employees.

“Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year...”

Statewide, the September 2021 median price of a single-family home of $520,000 was 15.6% higher than September 2020, while the average price of $664,428 was 8.2% more than last year. In the condo/ townhome market, the median price compared to last year rose 11.6% to $385,000, while the average price rose 6.1% to $526,311. Through September 2021, closed sales across the state are up 7.6%, and new listings are virtually flat compared to 2020. Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year, now represent a full month’s supply of inventory, still far below the national level of 2.6 months.

The percentage of list price received at sale is 101.3%, slightly off this summer’s highs, and days-onmarket is 27, down from 44 at this point last year.

BRECKENRIDGE

535 Delaware Drive, Breckenridge 6 BEDROOMS | 6 BATHROOMS | 4,683 SF

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

35%

$1,680,000

2020 vs

$1,607,106

2020 vs

2021

Avg Sold Price per SF

$633

2020 vs

86

37%

$445,000

2021

52%

2020 vs

2021 Lowest Price Sale

$484

$350,349,062

$2,166,348

Avg Days on Market

31%

53%

$535,087,874

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

41

218

2021

13%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

30%

$1,297,000

Total Dollar Volume

143%

$17,000,000

247

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$690,000

$770,000

2020 vs

$840,198

2020 vs

2021

Avg Sold Price per SF

28%

$833

2020 vs

55

2021

4%

$239,188

2021

47%

2020 vs

$231,054,557

$949,295

Avg Days on Market

Lowest Price Sale

$650

30%

13%

$299,977,260

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

275

29

2021

15%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

12%

Total Dollar Volume

16%

$3,631,500

316

2021

KEYSTONE

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$1,400,000

29%

$1,820,000

2020 vs

$1,483,786

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

$514

2020 vs

86

17% $725,000

2020 vs

2021

53%

2020 vs

2021 Lowest Price Sale

$403

$31,159,500

$1,912,780

Avg Days on Market

28%

53%

$47,819,501

2021

Number of Properties Sold

21

40

2021

19%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

30%

Total Dollar Volume

55% $4,025,000

25

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

15%

$630,000

2020 vs

$592,436

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

$661

2020 vs

70

2021

11% $250,000

$150,074,484

2020 vs

2021

2021

Number of Properties Sold

40%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$526

$90,050,324

$679,070

Avg Days on Market

26%

67%

42

152

2021

45%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

15%

$549,000

Total Dollar Volume

116% $2,810,000

221

2021

COPPER MOUNTAIN

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$3,300,000

20%

$3,850,000

2020 vs

$3,200,000

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

2020 vs

$605

2021

43% $3,850,000

$3,850,000

98%

2020 vs

$9,600,000

2021

Avg Days on Market

166

Lowest Price Sale

$608

0%

60%

2020 vs

$3,850,000

2021

Number of Properties Sold

4

3

2021

67%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

17%

Total Dollar Volume

7% $3,850,000

1

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

21%

$720,000

2020 vs

$604,670

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

2020 vs

$721

83

2021

70% $167,000

$30,233,478

2021

2020 vs

$62,399,542

2021

Number of Properties Sold

83%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$600

$734,112

Avg Days on Market

20%

106%

14

50

2021

70%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

29%

$557,500

Total Dollar Volume

15% $2,095,000

85

2021

SILVERTHORNE/DILLON

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

18%

20%

$1,165,876

$1,314,340

2020 vs

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

$513

2020 vs

58

2021

21% $620,000

$160,890,937

2021

2020 vs

$242,070,650

2021

Number of Properties Sold

59%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$403

$1,399,252

Avg Days on Market

27%

50%

24

138

2021

25%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

$1,117,553

Total Dollar Volume

32% $3,800,000

173

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

22%

$544,680

$635,000

2020 vs

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

52

$553

2020 vs

2021

19% $221,066

2020 vs

2021

$237,416,040

2021

Number of Properties Sold

54%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$434

$186,825,295

$663,173

Avg Days on Market

27%

27%

343

24

4%

2020 vs

2021 Highest Price Sale

29%

$491,000

Total Dollar Volume

20% $1,680,000

358

2021

FRISCO

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

34%

$1,297,322

$1,737,500

2020 vs

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

26%

$664

2020 vs

41

2021

75% $1,120,000

$28,541,080

$1,949,458

2020 vs

2021

Avg Days on Market

$46,787,000

2021

Number of Properties Sold

76%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$526

64%

50%

10

22

2021

9%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

$1,297,500

Total Dollar Volume

61% $3,300,000

24

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$624,500

2020 vs

20%

$801,500

$718,410

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

2020 vs

$671

34

2021

25% $261,178

$82,617,105

2021

$105,439,099

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

74%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$549

$864,255

Avg Days on Market

22%

28%

9

115

2021

6%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

28%

Total Dollar Volume

23% $2,085,000

122

2021

PARK COUNTY

3207 High Creek Road, Fairplay 4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 3,686 SF

Single Family Homes Average Sold Price

29%

$398,000

$408,520

$515,000

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

37%

$332

2020 vs

82

98% $144,900

$91,100,003

$120,487,268

2020 vs

2021

2021

Number of Properties Sold

66%

2020 vs

2021

32%

$542,735

Avg Days on Market

Lowest Price Sale

$243

33%

2020 vs

2021

Total Dollar Volume

28

223

2021

0%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

Median Sold Price

18% $1,350,000

222

2021

Condo/Townhomes Average Sold Price

72%

$258,000

$258,000

$445,000

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SF

19%

$248

2020 vs

0

43% $369,000

$258,000

$2,988,000

2020 vs

2021

2021

Number of Properties Sold

122%

2020 vs

2021

1058%

$597,600

Avg Days on Market

Lowest Price Sale

$208

132%

2020 vs

2021

Total Dollar Volume

122

1

2021

400%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

Median Sold Price

326% $1,100,000

5

2021

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