Summit Colorado
2025 FIRST QUARTER MARKET REPORT
Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
National Overview
ECONOMICS
In terms of the national economy, uncertainty reigns. The Trump administration’s proposed and imposed tariffs have surprised markets with their breadth and depth. Complex data indicators still show a solid economy, but headwinds appear to be building. March retail sales remained solid, rising 1.4% monthover-month, with the auto sector surging 5.3%, building materials up 3.3% (the biggest jump since 2021), and sporting goods gained 2.4%, but the gains were likely because households were front-running tariffs. In the jobs market, the March report showed solid job creation, improvements in the labor force participation rate, and a low unemployment rate of 4.2%. However, there are emerging weaknesses, most notably in wage growth, which suggest that the overall economic situation may not be as robust as it appears, or that consumers will be able to withstand the rising inflation that will accompany tariffs.
“The Fed is, unfortunately, boxed in because tariffs are likely to raise both inflation and unemployment, and their toolbox only allows them to solve one problem at a time. As such, they may have to make a painful choice between...”
The recently announced tariffs, coupled with retaliatory actions from other countries, especially China, are expected to dampen economic growth and, at least in the shortterm, boost inflation. Tariffs act as a tax on consumers, potentially costing the average household anywhere between $2,000 and $4,000 a year, which will significantly reduce household income and, ultimately, real consumer spending. A drop in consumer spending will, along with new policies around immigration, tax policy, and federal program
cuts and layoffs, collectively and substantially impact GDP, leading to weaker growth and increasing the likelihood of a recession. 2025 GDP growth was already expected to decline meaningfully because of a weakening labor market and the runout of the last of stimulus savings, combined with tighter fiscal policy. While a moving target, the latest forecasts for 2025 GDP growth range anywhere between -0.5% and 1.5%, and many economists are now placing the odds of a recession in 2025 at 60% or higher.
Consumer confidence has declined meaningfully, and there are early signs that households are pulling back on spending, especially for discretionary purchases. Americans are more invested in the stock market than they have been at any point in the past, and the recent wild market gyrations have shaken the confidence of many and knocked off trillions of dollars in net worth. Importantly, the wealthy, particularly the top 20% of earners, hold 87% of equities and do a stunning 60% of all spending. If they start to pull back as their portfolios significantly decline, that will have an outsized impact on consumer spending. Additionally, after a significant rise in CEO optimism in the months following the November election, CEO confidence fell 20% in early March compared to January and is now at its lowest level since Spring 2020. Making things worse, forecasts for what conditions will be like in 12 months fell 28% from January and are at their lowest level since November 2012. In combination with uncertainty about tariffs and weakening consumer confidence and demand, there will undoubtedly be delays in investments in new plant and equipment, further weakening growth.
Looking ahead, the situation is complicated by the limited availability of traditional
economic stabilizers. Current fiscal policy is contractionary, with the government focused on cutting spending rather than providing stimulus. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut rates quickly due to concerns about inflation. The uncertainty around the duration and extent of the tariffs further clouds the economic outlook, complicating the Fed’s efforts considerably. Dr. Eisenberg comments: “The Fed is, unfortunately, boxed in because tariffs are likely to raise both inflation and unemployment, and their toolbox only allows them to solve one problem at a time. As such, they may have to make a painful choice between trying to control inflation or address increases in the unemployment rate.”
HOUSING MARKET
The national housing market remains a chronic underachiever (especially in comparison to the early recovery from the pandemic), with new single-family home construction at levels similar to pre-COVID, but multi-family construction is much weaker due to a variety of issues, including oversupply and rising vacancy rates. Existing home sales remain sluggish, at or near record lows, influenced by high interest rates and relatively low inventory. February 2025, existing home sales were down 1.2% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million. The February 2025 median home price of $398,400 was 3.8% higher than last year, and while nationwide inventories of existing homes for sale are rising, they are still below what is considered a healthy number with just 3.5 months’ supply.
“I estimate that sales activity in 2025 will not be less than it was in 2024, if for no other reason than simply because the four million...”
In terms of new construction, there will be an added burden as tariffs, particularly on supplies, appliances, and materials from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, are expected to increase the cost of new home construction. Builders are also likely to face
labor shortages due to tightening immigration policies. The impact will vary depending on the price of the house, with cheaper builds potentially being less affected. The latest homebuilder sentiment index was super-soft at 40 (50 is neutral), and prospective buyer traffic is at 25, a year ago it was 34. Rising inventory of spec homes and steady increases in existing home inventory are all contributing to the decline in builder sentiment.
Despite the “golden handcuff” effect of low rates, there has been a gradual increase in the percentage of households with mortgages over 6%. Ultimately, “life goes on,” and some must move regardless of interest rates because of changes in family size, job relocation, or other personal circumstances. Additionally, some homeowners or households may not necessarily have to move, but they want to, and over time, this pent-up demand builds. As inventories rise and there are more choices, more and more of these on-thefence households will finally decide to take the plunge and move, bumping up market activity.
Lower interest rates will certainly help, but for now, fears of a weakening economy are probably discouraging buying activity. The overall outlook for the housing market in the near term is uncertain, with factors like a very volatile stock market adding to the difficulty in predicting a strong recovery. However, Dr. Eisenberg points out, “I estimate that sales activity in 2025 will not be less than it was in 2024, if for no other reason than simply because the four million seasonally adjusted annualized sales levels we’ve seen the past several years are the absolute lowest possible given normal life circumstances. I agree with most predictions that the Fed will cut rates at least two and possibly three times this year, and I think rate cuts, in combination with slowing price appreciation, will give a small boost to affordability and bring a few more buyers off the sidelines.”
Colorado Overview
HOUSING MARKET
The unemployment rate in Colorado in February was 4.7% compared to 3.9% a year ago and a peak of 11.7% in May 2020. For comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%. Over the last year, Colorado’s unemployment rate has risen similarly to the national rate, which for February was 4.1%. In Pitkin County, the February unemployment rate was 3.1%, it was 3.3% a year ago, and by comparison, preCovid in February 2020, it was 2.7%. Despite relatively high home prices and issues with affordability, Colorado’s population growth rate between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, was just trivially below the U.S. rate of 0.98%, reminding us that Colorado remains a desirable location.
“After a terrific performance in 2021 and 2022, where Colorado was one of the top performers, the market has cooled considerably, and while that is somewhat disappointing...”
Statewide, the median price of a singlefamily home in March 2025 was $584,990, up 1.7% from $575,000 a year ago, while the year-over-year average price gained 5.8% to
$754,030. In the condo/townhome market, the year-over-year median price dipped 3.8% to $409,000, while the average price rose 3.5% to $613,268. For the quarter, closed sales across the state were up a slight 0.9% year-over-year to 7,160, while new listings are up 23.7%. There were 23,213 active listings statewide at the end of March, up 27.1% compared to last year and those listings represent 3.3 months’ supply of inventory, up from 2.6 months at the end of March 2024. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale so far this year is 98.8%, down from 99.2% a year ago, while the average home spent 65 days on the market until sale, up from 58 days during the first quarter of 2024.
Dr. Eisenberg sums up the Colorado market as follows: “After a terrific performance in 2021 and 2022, where Colorado was one of the top performers, the market has cooled considerably, and while that is somewhat disappointing, it is not unexpected, since nothing goes up forever. The silver lining may be that now incomes are starting to rise as price appreciation slows, thus improving affordability. Combined with rising inventories, this opens up opportunities for a new slice of home buyers.”
Frisco/Copper Mountain
Park County
Peak View Subdivision, 6 Lots, Fairplay
Property Collection
303 High Meadow Drive, Dillon
7 BD | 8 BA | 13,765 SF Offered for $18,000,000
132 N Gold Flake Terrace, Breckenridge
6 BD | 8 BA | 7,446 SF Offered for $11,790,000
27 Boulder Circle, Breckenridge
6 BD | 8 BA | 5,260 SF Offered for $6,995,000
59 Gold Run Road, Breckenridge
5 BD | 6 BA | 5,880 SF Offered for $4,400,000
Ideally Situated in Breckenridge
$3,350,000 TRAIL ACCESS FROM THE DECK
5
Highlands at Breckenridge Lot
$1,950,000
$2,399,000
$1,025,000
2 Blocks to Frisco Main Street
$769,000 ROYAL MTN VIEWS
2 BEDS | 2F BATHS | 960 SF 200 GRANITE STREET, #202, FRISCO
Updated Ski Retreat
$750,000 PRIME LOCATION TO TOWN
2 BEDS | 2F BATHS | 780 SF 1173 SKI HILL ROAD, I-125, BRECKENRIDGE
Custom Features Built-in
$715,000 NO SHORT TERM RENTAL CAPS
2 BEDS | 1F BATHS | 956 SF 907 BOBCAT LANE, FAIRPLAY
Charming Alma Home
Flying Dutchman Retreat
$645,000 CLOSE TO KEYSTONE RESORT
2 BEDS | 1F BATHS | 735 SF 1977 SODA RIDGE ROAD, #1201, KEYSTONE
Tiger Run Resort
$525,000 CHARMING CHALET
2 BEDS | 1F BATHS | 1,008 SF 85 REVETT DRIVE, #99, BRECKENRIDGE
$685,000 CENTRAL TO YOUR ADVENTURES
2 BEDS | 1F BATHS | 1,460 SF 29 S OAK STREET, ALMA
Charming & Cozy Home
$545,000 VALLEY OF THE SUN
2 BEDS | 1F BATHS | 1,008 SF 2784 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FAIRPLAY
Indian Mountain Escape
$475,000 SPRAWLING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
3 BEDS | 2F BATHS | 2,088 SF 306 SHOSHONE DRIVE, COMO
Peak View Subdivision
6 LOTS AVAILABLE STARTING AT $225,000
LOTS STARTING AT 5 AC PLATTE RIVER DRIVE, FAIRPLAY
Lower Valley of the Sun
Perfect Building Site
$224,000 WELL TREED & IDEAL LOCATION
6 ACRES
1047 LUMBERJACK ROAD, FAIRPLAY
$295,000 QUIET AREA, READY TO BUILD
9.5 ACRES
122 ARTS PIKE, FAIRPLAY
Level Building Site
$26,000 OWN YOUR PIECE OF PARADISE
2.10 ACRES
83 PELICAN PLACE, COMO