Basalt to Glenwood Springs
2025 FIRST QUARTER MARKET REPORT
Report
Written By:
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ASPEN | SNOW MA SS
National Overview
ECONOMICS
In terms of the national economy, uncertainty reigns. The Trump administration’s proposed and imposed tariffs have surprised markets with their breadth and depth. Complex data indicators still show a solid economy, but headwinds appear to be building. March retail sales remained solid, rising 1.4% monthover-month, with the auto sector surging 5.3%, building materials up 3.3% (the biggest jump since 2021), and sporting goods gained 2.4%, but the gains were likely because households were front-running tariffs. In the jobs market, the March report showed solid job creation, improvements in the labor force participation rate, and a low unemployment rate of 4.2%. However, there are emerging weaknesses, most notably in wage growth, which suggest that the overall economic situation may not be as robust as it appears, or that consumers will be able to withstand the rising inflation that will accompany tariffs.
“The Fed is, unfortunately, boxed in because tariffs are likely to raise both inflation and unemployment, and their toolbox only allows them to solve one problem at a time. As such, they may have to make a painful choice between...”
The recently announced tariffs, coupled with retaliatory actions from other countries, especially China, are expected to dampen economic growth and, at least in the shortterm, boost inflation. Tariffs act as a tax on consumers, potentially costing the average household anywhere between $2,000 and $4,000 a year, which will significantly reduce household income and, ultimately, real consumer spending. A drop in consumer spending will, along with new policies around immigration, tax policy, and federal program
cuts and layoffs, collectively and substantially impact GDP, leading to weaker growth and increasing the likelihood of a recession. 2025 GDP growth was already expected to decline meaningfully because of a weakening labor market and the runout of the last of stimulus savings, combined with tighter fiscal policy. While a moving target, the latest forecasts for 2025 GDP growth range anywhere between -0.5% and 1.5%, and many economists are now placing the odds of a recession in 2025 at 60% or higher.
Consumer confidence has declined meaningfully, and there are early signs that households are pulling back on spending, especially for discretionary purchases. Americans are more invested in the stock market than they have been at any point in the past, and the recent wild market gyrations have shaken the confidence of many and knocked off trillions of dollars in net worth. Importantly, the wealthy, particularly the top 20% of earners, hold 87% of equities and do a stunning 60% of all spending. If they start to pull back as their portfolios significantly decline, that will have an outsized impact on consumer spending. Additionally, after a significant rise in CEO optimism in the months following the November election, CEO confidence fell 20% in early March compared to January and is now at its lowest level since Spring 2020. Making things worse, forecasts for what conditions will be like in 12 months fell 28% from January and are at their lowest level since November 2012. In combination with uncertainty about tariffs and weakening consumer confidence and demand, there will undoubtedly be delays in investments in new plant and equipment, further weakening growth.
Looking ahead, the situation is complicated by the limited availability of traditional
economic stabilizers. Current fiscal policy is contractionary, with the government focused on cutting spending rather than providing stimulus. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut rates quickly due to concerns about inflation. The uncertainty around the duration and extent of the tariffs further clouds the economic outlook, complicating the Fed’s efforts considerably. Dr. Eisenberg comments: “The Fed is, unfortunately, boxed in because tariffs are likely to raise both inflation and unemployment, and their toolbox only allows them to solve one problem at a time. As such, they may have to make a painful choice between trying to control inflation or address increases in the unemployment rate.”
HOUSING MARKET
The national housing market remains a chronic underachiever (especially in comparison to the early recovery from the pandemic), with new single-family home construction at levels similar to pre-COVID, but multi-family construction is much weaker due to a variety of issues, including oversupply and rising vacancy rates. Existing home sales remain sluggish, at or near record lows, influenced by high interest rates and relatively low inventory. February 2025, existing home sales were down 1.2% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million. The February 2025 median home price of $398,400 was 3.8% higher than last year, and while nationwide inventories of existing homes for sale are rising, they are still below what is considered a healthy number with just 3.5 months’ supply.
“I estimate that sales activity in 2025 will not be less than it was in 2024, if for no other reason than simply because the four million...”
In terms of new construction, there will be an added burden as tariffs, particularly on supplies, appliances, and materials from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, are expected to increase the cost of new home construction. Builders are also likely to face
labor shortages due to tightening immigration policies. The impact will vary depending on the price of the house, with cheaper builds potentially being less affected. The latest homebuilder sentiment index was super-soft at 40 (50 is neutral), and prospective buyer traffic is at 25, a year ago it was 34. Rising inventory of spec homes and steady increases in existing home inventory are all contributing to the decline in builder sentiment.
Despite the “golden handcuff” effect of low rates, there has been a gradual increase in the percentage of households with mortgages over 6%. Ultimately, “life goes on,” and some must move regardless of interest rates because of changes in family size, job relocation, or other personal circumstances. Additionally, some homeowners or households may not necessarily have to move, but they want to, and over time, this pent-up demand builds. As inventories rise and there are more choices, more and more of these on-thefence households will finally decide to take the plunge and move, bumping up market activity.
Lower interest rates will certainly help, but for now, fears of a weakening economy are probably discouraging buying activity. The overall outlook for the housing market in the near term is uncertain, with factors like a very volatile stock market adding to the difficulty in predicting a strong recovery. However, Dr. Eisenberg points out, “I estimate that sales activity in 2025 will not be less than it was in 2024, if for no other reason than simply because the four million seasonally adjusted annualized sales levels we’ve seen the past several years are the absolute lowest possible given normal life circumstances. I agree with most predictions that the Fed will cut rates at least two and possibly three times this year, and I think rate cuts, in combination with slowing price appreciation, will give a small boost to affordability and bring a few more buyers off the sidelines.”
Colorado Overview
HOUSING MARKET
The unemployment rate in Colorado in February was 4.7% compared to 3.9% a year ago and a peak of 11.7% in May 2020. For comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%. Over the last year, Colorado’s unemployment rate has risen similarly to the national rate, which for February was 4.1%. In Pitkin County, the February unemployment rate was 3.1%, it was 3.3% a year ago, and by comparison, preCovid in February 2020, it was 2.7%. Despite relatively high home prices and issues with affordability, Colorado’s population growth rate between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, was just trivially below the U.S. rate of 0.98%, reminding us that Colorado remains a desirable location.
“After a terrific performance in 2021 and 2022, where Colorado was one of the top performers, the market has cooled considerably, and while that is somewhat disappointing...”
Statewide, the median price of a singlefamily home in March 2025 was $584,990, up 1.7% from $575,000 a year ago, while the year-over-year average price gained 5.8% to
$754,030. In the condo/townhome market, the year-over-year median price dipped 3.8% to $409,000, while the average price rose 3.5% to $613,268. For the quarter, closed sales across the state were up a slight 0.9% year-over-year to 7,160, while new listings are up 23.7%. There were 23,213 active listings statewide at the end of March, up 27.1% compared to last year and those listings represent 3.3 months’ supply of inventory, up from 2.6 months at the end of March 2024. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale so far this year is 98.8%, down from 99.2% a year ago, while the average home spent 65 days on the market until sale, up from 58 days during the first quarter of 2024.
Dr. Eisenberg sums up the Colorado market as follows: “After a terrific performance in 2021 and 2022, where Colorado was one of the top performers, the market has cooled considerably, and while that is somewhat disappointing, it is not unexpected, since nothing goes up forever. The silver lining may be that now incomes are starting to rise as price appreciation slows, thus improving affordability. Combined with rising inventories, this opens up opportunities for a new slice of home buyers.”
ASPEN SNOWMASS ECONOMICS
The 25Q1 median price of a single-family home in Aspen was $16.25 million, an impressive 35% gain compared to the first quarter of 2024, while the average price increased 16% to nearly $18.2 million. Aspen townhomes and condominiums had a median price of $3.375 million, up 13.0% from last year, with the average price surging 48% year-over-year to $6.43 million. In Snowmass Village, the year-overyear single-family median price gained 15% to $8.25 million, while the average price rose 33% to just under $10.7 million. Snowmass Village townhomes and condominiums saw gains in median price, rising 24.0% to $2.33 million, while the average price rose 37.0% to nearly $3.375 million. Across the Aspen/Snowmass Village area, closed sales were down 15% compared to last year, but higher prices pushed overall sales volume up 24.0% to just over $685.5 million. Single-family homes in Aspen saw their sold price to original listing price improve from 91% last year to 96% during the first quarter of 2025. Aspen townhomes and condos generally went for 93% of their original listing price (down from 96% last year) while Snowmass Village singlefamily homes stayed at 95% and Snowmass townhomes and condos declined 2% to 95%.
The single-family market in Aspen saw days on
market drop by about a third (to 179 days), while days on market rose everywhere else.
“Housing markets with limited supply have always shown stellar performance over the long run. In Aspen and Snowmass Village, the limited number of existing homes and restrictions on new construction mean supply will remain tight, a near guarantee of...”
The combination of equities performing badly and the IPO market being utterly lifeless are beginning to place some stress on the luxury housing market. A recent WSJ article noted that some high-end properties across the country are returning to the market after buyers reconsidered in the aftermath of the recent stock market turmoil. That said, the Aspen/ Snowmass Village area remains among the most desirable in the country, with year-round amenities and attractions. Dr. Eisenberg says, “Housing markets with limited supply have always shown stellar performance over the long run. In Aspen and Snowmass Village, the limited number of existing homes and restrictions on new construction mean supply will remain tight, a near guarantee of value retention.”
Glenwood Springs
Our Property Collection
$25,500,000
$15,000,000 CUSTOM HOME
5 BEDS | 5F, 1H BATHS | 5,174 SF 750 S STARWOOD ROAD, ASPEN 60 Starwood in Aspen
Mountain Contemporary
$12,500,000 MINS TO ASPEN CORE
4 BEDS | 4F, 1H BATHS | 4,182 SF 566 RACE STREET, ASPEN
$8,500,000 CLASSIC MOUNTAIN DESIGN
5 BEDS | 4F, 1H BATHS | 4,328 SF 1614 FARAWAY ROAD, SMV Ridge Run Snowmass Ski Home
Downtown Aspen Gem
$6,125,000 WALK TO EVERYTHING
4 BEDS | 3 BATHS | 1,523 SF 100 E DEAN STREET 1B, ASPEN
Beautiful Durant Condo
$5,850,000 FLOOR-TO-CEILING WINDOWS
3 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 1,100 SF 728 S GALENA STREET 101-B, ASPEN
$4,950,000 STUNNING VIEWS OF ASPEN
3 BEDS | 2 FULL, 1 HALF BATHS | 1,522 SF 503 W MAIN STREET B202, ASPEN Luxury in Aspen at Christiana
3 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 992 SF 124 E DURANT AVENUE 6, ASPEN Walk to Town, Gondola & LIFT 1A
$4,385,000 VIEWS OF ASPEN MOUNTAIN
$4,200,000 BREATHTAKING VIEWS
4 BEDS | 3F, 1H BATHS | 3,342 SF 35 STARLIT LANE, SNOWMASS Capitol Creek Living
4 BEDS | 3F, 1H BATHS | 2,220 SF 144 W HOMESTEAD DRIVE, BASALT New Construction Basalt Living
$3,995,000 OLD TOWN NEIGHBORHOOD
$3,595,000 VIEWS OF VILLAGE EXPRESS
2 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 990 SF 610 S WEST END ST. K103, ASPEN 660 Perfectly Positioned Gant
$3,595,000 VIEWS OF VILLAGE EXPRESS
4 BEDS | 4 BATHS | 1,544 SF 400 WOOD ROAD 1207, SMV 660 Beautiful Crestwood Condo
$3,150,000 SHORT WALK TO GONDOLA Downtown Aspen Condo
2 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 940 SF 731 S MILL STREET 2C, ASPEN
$3,000,000 CLOSE TO THE GONDOLA
4 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 1,200 SF CAPITOL PEAK 3210, SNOWMASS VILLAGE Snowmass Base Village Condo
$2,395,000 HALF DUPLEX
3 BEDS | 2F, 1H BATHS | 2,245 SF 211 MEADOW RANCH DRIVE D5A, SMV 0 Meadow Ranch Opportunity
$2,835,000 4 BLOCKS TO GONDOLA
2 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 698 SF 940 WATERS AVENUE #201, ASPEN Aspen Core Condo - Silver Glo
$2,250,000 ON THE 16TH HOLE 4 BEDS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHS | 2,609 SF 75 BUFFALO LANE, CARBONDALE Updated Aspen Glen Home
Rare Mixed-Use Townhouse
$1,995,000 OFFICE AND APARTMENT
2 BEDS | 3 BATHS | 1,457 SF | 3 PARKING 319 AABC UNIT C & D, ASPEN
Discover Mountain Luxury Living
$1,740,000 SKI-IN, SKI-OUT
2 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 757 SF 130 WOOD ROAD 505 & 507, SMV
Luxurious King-Sized Studio
$870,000 VICEROY, SKI-IN, SKI-OUT
STUDIO | 1 BATH | 376 SF VICEROY #507, SNOWMASS VILLAGE
W Sky Residences in Aspen
$725,000 IN THE HEART OF ASPEN
3 BEDS | 3F, 1H BATHS | 1,993 SF
SKY RESIDENCES & LODGE F8-9, ASPEN
Top of the Village Summit 202
$1,925,000 SNOWMASS SKI AREA
2 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 1,080 SF 855 CARRIAGE WAY SUMMIT 202, SMV
Mountain Luxury Living
$870,000 VICEROY, SKI-IN, SKI-OUT
STUDIO | 1 BATH | 381 SF VICEROY #505, SNOWMASS VILLAGE
$725,000 IN THE HEART OF ASPEN
3 BEDS | 3F, 1H BATHS | 1,993 SF
SKY RESIDENCES & LODGE F8-10, ASPEN W Sky Residences in Aspen
$699,000 MT SOPRIS VIEWS Rustic Charm and Comfort
3 BEDS | 2 BATHS | 1,464 SF 4698 COUNTY ROAD 154, GWS