First Quarter Market Report 2021 | Christie's International Real Estate Summit Colorado

—

SU M M IT

CO LO R A D O —

SUMMIT COLORADO FIRST QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Nationally

By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is likely to exceed 6%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3.

By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a still remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023. As for the stock market, with low interest rates likely to prevail for some time and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500, should have a good year.

While the Federal Reserve has revised their 2021 forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, they have barely modified their 2022/23 forecasts. This means the Fed very much thinks the latest stimulus monies will lead to a short-term boost to the economy but nothing more. They are essentially looking through this short-term growth and any corresponding inflationary effects. As such, they remain strongly wedded to their existing inflation-fighting plans and do not anticipate raising short term rates before 2023 and are unlikely to commence their tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022.

While consumer spending data in February was disappointing due to the combination of unusually harsh weather, the gap between stimulus packages, and payback for very strong growth in prior months, consumer spending will undoubtedly improve in March. Relatedly, job growth is clearly turning the corner. After a slight decline in employment in December, job creation has steadily improved and topped 900,000 in March, and over the rest of this year, the economy should easily create between 500,000 and a million new jobs a month. Despite this unusually strong employment growth, the unemployment rate will be hard pressed to decline by more than one percentage point as more people will be drawn to the increasingly vibrant job market. As a result, it will be important to focus more on job creation rather than the slowly declining monthly unemployment rate. The housing sector continues to look good and construction activity will likely rise by a modest 5-6% pace over 2020 given the many capacity constraints (labor and input prices).

“By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023.”

Legislatively, the long-awaited-for “hard” infrastructure bill is now moving to center stage and will shortly be accompanied by a “soft” infrastructure bill. Despite bipartisan agreement on the need for improvements to the nation’s “hard” infrastructure including highways, bridges, broadband, and infrastructure, these bills will be narrowly passed along strictly partisan lines due to disagreements about the size of the bills and how to pay for them. The passage must occur prior to Thanksgiving, and unlike the several stimulus packages, this legislative effort will boost economic activity over an extended period of between five and eight years.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado

In Colorado, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.6% as of 02/2021 (compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%). Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20, (compared to a pre-pandemic level 21,956) and are now at 82,157 for the week ended 03/27/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 104,713 for the week ended 4/18/20, have generally declined since, and are at 50,535 for the week ending 3/13/21. With increasing vaccination rates and improvements in the wider national economy, unemployment numbers should continue to improve.

“For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low...”

Statewide, the March 2021 median price of a single-family home rose to $485,000, a 14.4% gain over March 2020, while the median sales price of a townhome or condo rose to $362,500, a 9.8% gain over last March. For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low 6,732, a nearly 70% decline over the same period as last year and represents just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory.

BRECKENRIDGE

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$1,289,250

15%

$1,563,500

2020 vs

$1,583,894

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$575

2020 vs

2021

5%

$445,000

$1,827,651

$63,355,769

2021

Avg Days on Market

103

2020 vs

$118,797,300

2021

Number of Properties Sold

38%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$492

17%

88%

64

40

2021

63%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

21%

Total Dollar Volume

15%

$5,295,000

65

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$640,000

12%

$752,500

2020 vs

$771,765

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$735

2020 vs

2021

10% $267,000

$862,129

$60,969,420

2021

Avg Days on Market

58

2020 vs

$72,418,877

2021

Number of Properties Sold

10%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$659

11%

19%

52

79

2021

6%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

18%

Total Dollar Volume

31%

$3,300,000

84

2021

KEYSTONE

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$1,075,000

96%

$1,710,000

2020 vs

$1,104,000

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$557

2020 vs

2021

42% $880,000

$2,161,667

$5,552,000

2021

Avg Days on Market

111

$12,970,000

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

50%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$338

65%

134%

56

5

2021

20%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

59%

Total Dollar Volume

168% $4,025,000

6

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

2%

8%

2020 vs

$470,000

$510,204

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

2020 vs

$613

2021

0%

$250,000

$548,884

$13,775,500

2021

Avg Days on Market

115

2020 vs

$34,579,712

2021

Number of Properties Sold

17%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$555

10%

151%

96

27

2021

133%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

$480,000

Total Dollar Volume

57%

$1,370,000

63

2021

COPPER MOUNTAIN

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

Total Dollar Volume

1%

1%

1%

$3,850,000

2020 vs

$3,795,000

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

2020 vs

$605

2021

1%

$3,850,000

$3,795,000

2021

Avg Days on Market

189

2020 vs

$3,850,000

2021

Number of Properties Sold

98%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$563

7%

$3,850,000

4

1

2021

0%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

$3,795,000

1%

$3,850,000

1

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$495,000

44%

$637,561

2020 vs

$504,450

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$711

2020 vs

2021

9%

$326,000

$728,405

$6,053,400

2021

Avg Days on Market

90

$18,938,521

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

92%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$594

20%

213%

7

12

2021

117%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

29%

Total Dollar Volume

183% $2,095,000

26

2021

SILVERTHORNE/DILLON

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$1,265,000

28%

$1,344,840

2020 vs

$1,102,477

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$476

2020 vs

2021

20%

$650,000

$1,412,733

$27,561,926

2021

Avg Days on Market

66

2020 vs

$55,096,593

2021

Number of Properties Sold

65%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$400

19%

100%

23

25

2021

56%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

6%

Total Dollar Volume

47%

$3,090,000

39

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$452,250

19%

$560,000

2020 vs

$519,103

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

2020 vs

$476

2021

43% $265,000

$616,340

$25,955,174

2021

Avg Days on Market

68

2020 vs

$54,237,932

2021

Number of Properties Sold

31%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$449

6%

109%

47

50

2021

76%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

24%

Total Dollar Volume

23%

$1,250,000

88

2021

FRISCO

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$970,000

110%

$1,900,000

2020 vs

$970,000

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$711

2020 vs

2021

88%

$1,200,000

$2,035,000

$1,940,000

2021

Avg Days on Market

11

$10,175,000

2020 vs

2021

Number of Properties Sold

64%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$492

44%

424%

4

2

2021

150%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

96%

Total Dollar Volume

154%

$3,300,000

5

2021

Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

Total Dollar Volume

2%

5%

3%

$787,000

2020 vs

$838,185

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$591

2020 vs

2021

17% $261,178

$19,278,246

2021

Avg Days on Market

32

2020 vs

$19,908,628

2021

Number of Properties Sold

78%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$533

11%

$796,345

7

23

2021

9%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

$799,000

44%

$1,899,000

25

2021

PARK COUNTY

Single Family Homes Median Sold Price

Average Sold Price

$375,000

19%

$442,125

2020 vs

$395,602

2021

2020 vs

Avg Sold Price per SQFT

$280

2020 vs

2021

10%

$159,900

$470,361

$20,175,700

2021

Avg Days on Market

116

2020 vs

$19,755,173

2021

Number of Properties Sold

56%

2020 vs Lowest Price Sale

$224

25%

2%

51

51

2021

18%

2020 vs Highest Price Sale

18%

Total Dollar Volume

47%

$1,035,000

42

2021

LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 323 N. Main Street Breckenridge • 970.344.9002 Info@ChristiesSummitCORE.com • ChristiesRealEstate.com