Fourth Quarter Market Report | Christie's International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass

Fourth Quarter 2020 Market Report Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Economic Overview Nationally

By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Nationally, the economy is likely to have closed out 2020 with strong Q4 GDP growth of about 4%.

As a result, 2020 GDP is likely to come in at no worse than -3%, a very strong showing given where we were back in the spring. However, the forecast for 21Q1 is substantially more subdued, with growth expected to be no greater than a disappointing 1.5%, due to a combination of colder weather, rising coronavirus caseloads, a slower-than-hoped-for vaccine rollout, and an increase in government-mandated lockdowns. Economic growth should improve over the remaining three quarters of 2021, such that by late this year GDP is back to where it was before the onset of the pandemic. As for employment, it will probably take until mid-to-late 2023 for employment to fully recover. Inflation is likely to remain subdued through at least 2021, and the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates for at least several years. If long-term rates do start to rise, the Fed will probably shift to purchasing more long-term bonds to push them down. Turning our attention to politics, with Democrats controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, albeit with razor-thin majorities on Capitol Hill, expect somewhat higher levels of government spending and some attempt to increase taxes on the wealthy and those with higher incomes. As for the stock market, with low rates prevailing and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500, should have a good year.

“The housing market is expected to remain strong through 2021 due to a combination of favorable demographics, continued low-interest rates, easier access to credit, and a continued lack of new and existing inventory.” That said, existing and new sales are very unlikely to exceed the very strong levels of activity they have exhibited over the last five months. They should, however, be able to maintain or come very close to maintaining that level of activity during the upcoming year. Home prices should continue to rise, but by about half the rate they experienced in 2020. Housing is a bright spot in our recovering economy and should remain so going forward.

“The housing market is expected to remain strong through 2021 due to a combination of favorable demographics...”

Economic Overview Colorado In Colorado, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4% as of 11/2020 and has been stable for the last several months as it dropped from a peak of 12.2% in April, both lower than comparable national levels. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment bottomed out at 79,697 for the week ending 11/21/20 but have steadily risen since and at are 110,035 for the week ended 12/26/20. This mirrors the overall US economy, which appears in the last several months to be temporarily sputtering. As vaccination rates improve, tourism rebounds and fiscal stimulus courses through the economy, unemployment numbers should improve.

“Closed sales across the state are up 16.3%, while active listings of inventory are at all-time lows, and in many areas are well less than half 2019 levels...”

Across the state of Colorado through November, the median sales price of single-family homes rose 8.7%, and condo/townhomes rose 6.6% compared to 2019. Closed sales across the state are up 16.3%, while active listings of inventory are at all-time lows, and in many areas are well less than half 2019 levels.

All indicators point to a continuing sellers’ market across most of the state in 2021.

Aspen

Single Family Homes The median price for single-family homes in Aspen for the calendar year 2020 rose to a staggering all-time high of $9.25 million, up 54% over 2019. Average sale prices jumped by 47% to $11.1 million. The number of sales grew by 81% to 161, and overall sales volume rose 165% to $1.8 billion dollars! The average sold price per square foot jumped from $1,481 in 2019 to $1,840 in 2020.

The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen in 2020 was for $32 million, while in 2019, it was $23 million.

Average days on the market stayed relatively flat at 313, and percent of sold price to original listing price was also virtually unchanged at 92%.

Median Sold Price

$10

$9.25M

Millions

$8

$6.30M

$6 $5.07M

$5.43M

$6.00M

54%

2019 vs 2020

$4 $2 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

47%

2019 vs 2020

Average Sold Price

$11.13M

$12

Fourth Quarter YTD of

$10

Millions

$0

$8

$7.98M $6.45M

$6.59M

$7.59M

$6 $4 $2

Millions/Billions

$2B

Total Dollar Volume

2016

$798M

$1B

$494M

165%

$500M $355M

2016

2017

2018

2019 vs 2020

$675M

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

$1.80B

$1.5B

$0

$0

2020

Average Price Per SQFT $1,840

$2,000

$1,600

$1,500 $1,368

$1,463 $1,481

24%

$1,000

2019 vs 2020

$500 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

1%

2019 vs 2020

91%

92%

93%

91%

92%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 274 2016

351 2017

294 2018

303 2019

3%

313

2019 vs 2020

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

81%

2019 vs 2020

Number of Properties Sold SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

55

100

75

89

161

2018

2019

2016

2017

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

As Good As It Gets Aspen, Colorado

7 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 20,740 SQFT

Aspen Living Defined

Aspen, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 3 HALF BATHROOMS | 10,897 SQFT

Aspen

Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Aspen are also up significantly over 2019, with the median price gaining 44% to $2.6 million and the average sales price up 59% to $3.7 million. The number of properties rose to 185, the highest level of recent memory, and was up 31.0% from last year. Sales volume was up 109% to $692 million, and the average price per square foot rose 21% to $1,899.

In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive home sold this year was $18.3 million compared to $14.4 million the year before.

Average days on the market for condos/townhomes rose slightly to 252, and the percent of sold price to original list price was flat at 95%.

$3.0

Median Sold Price $2.63M

Millions

$2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.28M

$1.55M $1.58M

$1.82M

44%

2019 vs 2020

$1.0 $0.5 $0.0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Average Sold Price

2020

2019 vs 2020

$3.5 $3.0

Millions

59%

$3.74M

$4.0

Fourth Quarter YTD of

$2.5 $2.0

$2.00M

$2.25M

$2.67M

$2.35M

$1.5 $1.0 $0.5

$800

Total Dollar Volume

$692M

$700

Millions

$600 $500 $400 $300

$394M $376M $268M

$331M

$100 2016

2017

2018

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2019

2020

2017

2016

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

109%

2019 vs 2020

$200 $0

$0.0

2020

Average Price Per SQFT

$2,000 $1,500

$1,231

$1,370

$1,899

$1,520 $1,573

21%

$1,000

2019 vs 2020

$500 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

0%

2019 vs 2020

94%

95%

94%

95%

95%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 250 2016

232 2017

289

237

2018

2019

6%

252

2019 vs 2020

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

31%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

134

175

141

141

185

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Residences at the Little Nell Aspen, Colorado

4 BEDROOMS SHARED OWNERSHIP | MINIMUM OF 6 WEEKS PER YEAR

Monarch on the Park

Aspen, Colorado

3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,429 SQFT

Snowmass Village Single Family Homes

In Snowmass Village, median sales prices of single-family homes were largely unchanged at $3.7 million, although average prices gained 8% and rose to $4.3 million. Sales rose smartly from 49 in 2019 to 69 in 2020, and dollar volume rose by 52% to almost $300 million. Average sold price per square foot rose 7% to $977.

The most expensive single-family home sold in 2020 in Snowmass Village sold for just over $14.6 million. By comparison, the most expensive single-family home sold during 2019 was for $14.3 million.

Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village plummeted from 383 in 2019 to 252 in 2020 and percent sold price to original list price rose from 91% in 2019 to 94% in 2020.

Median Sold Price

$3.60M $3.66M

$4.0

$3.31M $3.5 $2.55M $2.60M

Millions

$3.0 $2.5

2%

2019 vs 2020

$2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

8%

2019 vs 2020

Total Dollar Volume

$299M

$300

Millions

$250

$150M $142M $134M $150

$50 2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

$4.34M

$3.31M $3.13M

$3 $2 $1 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2019 vs 2020

$100

$0

$4

$4.03M

$3.94M

52%

$198M

$200

Average Sold Price

$5

Millions

$0.0

2020

$1,000

Average Price Per SQFT $911

$881

$775

$800

$977

$758

7%

$600

2019 vs 2020

$400 $200 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

3%

2019 vs 2020

92%

92%

92%

91%

94%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 327

336 2016

2017

302

383

2018

2019

34%

252

2019 vs 2020

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

41%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

38

43

43

49

69

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Snowmass Village Gem - Sold Snowmass Village, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,579 SQFT

Pine Crest Ski-In, Ski-Out Snowmass Village, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,500 SQFT

Snowmass Village

Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices in Snowmass Village increased significantly, with median prices up 16% to $885,000 and average sales prices up 29% to $1.4 million. The number of sales increased 54% to 197, while sales volume doubled to $278 million.

The average price per square foot rose 7% to $844.

In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive property went for $7.9 million this year, compared to $6.1 million last year.

Average days on the market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village declined from 271 in 2019 to 237 in 2020, while sold price to original listing price was unchanged. $1M $800 $600

Median Sold Price $666K $628K $601K

$765K

$885K

16%

2019 vs 2020

$400 $200 $0

2016

2017

2019

2018

Average Sold Price

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

$1.41M

$1.5M

29%

2019 vs 2020

$1.2M $900K

$916K $921K $869K

$600K $300K $0

2016

Total Dollar Volume $278M

$300

99%

Millions

$250 $200

$136M $140M

$150 $100 $81M

2019 vs 2020

$97M

$50 $0

2016

2017

2018

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2019

2020

$1.09M

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

Average Price Per SQFT $1,000 $800

$635

$634

$689

$791

$844

7%

$600

2019 vs 2020

$400 $200 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fourth Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

0%

2019 vs 2020

93%

95%

96%

96%

96%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 368 2016

377 2017

271

239

2019

2018

13%

237

2019 vs 2020

2020

Fourth Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

54%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

88

105

156

128

197

2019

2020

2016

2017

2018 Fourth Quarter YTD of

One Snowmass - Luxury Rental Snowmass Village, Colorado

3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,000 SQFT

Lumin Penthouse - Luxury Rental Snowmass Village, Colorado

4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,165 SQFT

Lifestyle. Luxury. Legacy.

520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com