Third Quarter Market Report 2021 | Christie's International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass

ASPEN

| SNOWMASS

ASPEN & SNOWMASS THIRD QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Nationally

By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Despite early hopes for a spectacular Q3, cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19 began to rise throughout July and August and economic projections progressively worsened. We are likely to end up with 21Q3 GDP growth of around 3%, which is quite disappointing compared to the 7% we initially forecast. Some of the pent-up demand for consumer spending that we were unable to satisfy in 21Q3 will shift forward into 21Q4, so all is not lost. I expect that 21Q4 GDP growth will be around 5%, supported by continuing job growth and pent-up demand. We are also hopefully seeing something of an “end” to the pandemic phase of covid, and while it will undoubtedly remain an ongoing public health concern, with a full 57% of the population vaccinated and a considerable number with at least some level of natural immunity due to prior exposure, the chances of a wintertime surge again this year look unlikely. Overall, for 2021 I expect GDP growth to come in around 5%, well above our pre-covid trend of around 2-2.25%. Looking even further into the future, GDP growth for 2022 and 2023 will continue to slow toward normal, such that by the end of 2023, we should be back around 2-2.25%.

“A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown.”

Job growth, while solid, is uninspiring but is likely to improve as covid numbers steadily recede. I expect to see monthly job growth, on average, of about 350,000 jobs per month through the end of 2022. Inflation remains a real problem, although there are signs that we may have seen the peak. Still, since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified and the term “ephemeral” may be more applicable. Supply chain bottlenecks continue to be complicated and widespread, and “just-in-time” supply chain management has become “just-in-case” hoarding. The trajectory of inflation now appears to be higher for longer than we previously anticipated.

In terms of Federal Reserve Bank actions, expansionary monetary policy will begin coming to an end as early as November of this year, and no later than January of 2022, when the Fed begins to taper its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The tapering process will presumably end in either Q2 or Q3 of 2022, and sometime after that, the Fed will begin raising interest rates, which could be as early as late 2022, conditioned on prevailing inflationary pressures. Similarly, fiscal policy is now quite contractionary, and starting in 21Q2, began reducing GDP by about 2.5%/annum, the most contractionary stance in decades. This is likely to last at least another 12 months.

A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown.

Relatedly, two large spending bills are being negotiated, along with the next iteration of the debt ceiling debate.

The stock market has, at least so far, taken things in stride, aided by solid earnings. Regardless of what is ultimately negotiated in terms of spending and tax increases, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the markets, as the contours of a deal are becoming increasingly clearer.

Nationally, the housing market continues to do very well and is unquestionably strong. That said, we may be seeing some slight signs of slowing as inventories finally begin to rise just a bit. This is more indicative of a market that is settling into a normal, healthy pattern instead of the frenetic pace we saw in the last half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Year-over-year metrics are suffering simply in comparison to the overheated market we experienced last summer and fall. Prices will remain strong, although likely with slower price appreciation going forward.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado

Unemployment in Colorado hit a peak of 12.1% in April 2020 and has since declined to 5.9% as of 08/2021, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 28,661 for the week ending 09/25/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 188,027 for the week ended 6/6/20, have generally declined since, and with the expiration of federal benefits, are at just 121 for the week ending 9/18/21. In Pitkin County, the May unemployment rate of 9.1% is, unsurprisingly, still elevated compared to May 2019’s 5.9%. The August 2021 unemployment rate is 4.7%, compared to 2.2% in August 2019, indicative of a shrinking unemployment rate gap as conditions slowly improve. These elevated unemployment rates belie the real problems many employers continue to face in recruiting and retaining employees.

“Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year...”

Statewide, the September 2021 median price of a single-family home of $520,000 was 15.6% higher than September 2020, while the average price of $664,428 was 8.2% more than last year. In the condo/ townhome market, the median price compared to last year rose 11.6% to $385,000, while the average price rose 6.1% to $526,311. Through September 2021, closed sales across the state are up 7.6%, and new listings are virtually flat compared to 2020. Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year, now represent a full month’s supply of inventory, still far below the national level of 2.6 months.

The percentage of list price received at sale is 101.3%, slightly off this summer’s highs, and days-onmarket is 27, down from 44 at this point last year.

Aspen and Snowmass Village Single-family home prices in Aspen rose about 10% over last year and Snowmass Village single-family home prices were up by 35%. In contrast, condo/townhome prices in Aspen declined by about 25%, while in Snowmass Village, townhome and condominium prices were virtually unchanged from last year.

Through September, the total number of residential properties sold throughout the Aspen/Snowmass Village area was up 44% over last year, and the total dollar volume sold during that period increased by 26% to nearly $2.3 billion. Inventories remain very tight, with just 73 single-family homes and 37 condos and townhomes available at the end of the quarter.

The desirability of the Aspen/Snowmass Village area, especially given the newly found flexibility that many work-from-home arrangements provide, is easy to see in the market data through September.

Long-term and newly minted residents know why Conde Nast recently named Aspen the “Best Small City in America.”

ASPEN

Single Family Homes The median price for single-family homes in Aspen through September 2021 rose to $9.9 million, up 10% over the same period of 2020. The average sale price of $12.2 million was a 9% gain over 2020.

While the number of sales was nearly flat at 102, overall dollar volume increased by 15% to $1.25 million. The average sold price per square foot rose from $1,839 in 2020 to $2,049 in 2021.

On September 30, 2021, there were 60 single-family homes on the market, compared to 131 at the same point last year, a 54% decline.

The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen so far in 2021 was for $72.5 million, compared to $32 million in 2020.

Average days on market fell from 310 to 257, while the percentage of sold price to original listing price rose from 91% last year to 95% this year.

Median Sold Price $9.07M

$10

Million

$8

$6.25M

$6

$5.45M

$9.94M

10%

$6.10M

2020 vs 2021

$4 $2 $0

Average Sold Price 2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

$15

Third Quarter YTD of

2020 vs 2021

Total Dollar Volume $1.5B

Million

$625M

$600

$377M

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

$7.71M

$3 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

2020 vs 2021

Third Quarter YTD of

$6.73M

$12.25M

$6

15%

$486M

$300 $0

$9 $8.02M

$1.25M $1.08M

$1.2B $900

Million

9%

$11.26M

$12

2021

$2,500 $2,000

Average Price Per Square Foot $1,583 $1,588

$1,500

$1,839

$2,049

11%

$1,469

$1,000

2020 vs 2021

$500 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

4% 2020 vs 2021

92%

93%

91%

91%

95%

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 345 2017

262

321

2018

2019

310 2020

17% 257

2020 vs 2021

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

6% 2020 vs 2021

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

78

56

63

96

102

2017

2018

2019 Third Quarter YTD of

2020

2021

AS GOOD AS IT GETS

Aspen, Colorado

7 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 20,740 SF

STARWOOD SOLITUDE

Aspen, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 8 BATHROOMS | 7,903 SF

ASPEN

Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condominium prices in Aspen were down over 2020, with the median sale price declining 26% to $1.9 million while the average price was down 25% to $2.8 million.

The number of properties sold increased from 120 in 2020 to 178 through September this year. Sales volume of $503.5 million was up from $451.8 million last year, while average price per square foot rose 6% to $1,954.

Condo and townhome inventories were down 83% from last September with just 19 units on the market.

In the Aspen condo/townhome market, the most expensive unit sold so far this year was for $36.5 million, far more than last year’s record of $18.3 million.

Average days on market for condos/townhomes declined by almost half from 269 to 148, and percent of sold price to original list price increased from 95% to 97%.

Median Sold Price $3.0

$2.58M

Million

$2.5 $2.0

$1.50M $1.58M

26%

$1.91M

$1.85M

$1.5

2020 vs 2021

$1.0

Average Sold Price

$0.5 $0.0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

$3.76M

$4

Third Quarter YTD of

2020 vs 2021

Total Dollar Volume $600

$452M

$500

Million

$400

$311M

$300

$265M

$2.19M

$1 $0

2017

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

2021

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

2020 vs 2021

$100

$2.20M

$2

11%

$240M

$2.83M

$2.77M

$504M

$200

$0

Million

25%

$3

2021

Average Price Per Square Foot $1,850

$2,000 $1,500

$1,954

$1,527 $1,580

$1,377

6%

$1,000

2020 vs 2021

$500 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

2% 2020 vs 2021

95%

94%

95%

95%

97%

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market

241 2017

309 2018

222

269

2019

2020

148 2021

45% 2020 vs 2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

48%

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

142

96

109

120

178

2020

2021

2020 vs 2021 2017

2018

2019 Third Quarter YTD of

MONARCH ON THE PARK

Aspen, Colorado

3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,429 SF

CONVENIENCE OF IN-TOWN LIVING

Aspen, Colorado

LUXURY RENTAL 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 1,901 SF

SNOWMASS VILLAGE

Single Family Homes

In Snowmass Village, the median sale price of single-family homes of $4.8 million was 35% more than last year. Average price rose by 37% to $5.3 million. Average price per square foot increased 34% to $1,239.

Closed sales increased by 60% to 56 and dollar volume more than doubled to $298 million.

There are just 13 single-family homes for sale in Snowmass Village at the end of September, down from 39 last September.

The most expensive single-family home sold this past six months in Snowmass Village was for $12.5 million (compared to last year’s record of nearly $8.1 million).

Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village declined from 239 days last year to 193 days so far this year. Percent of sold price to original list price increased from 93% in 2020 to 97% through September.

Median Sold Price $4.84M

$5

$3.59M

Million

$4

35%

$2.72M $2.69M $3 $2.57M $2

2020 vs 2021

$1 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

Average Sold Price

2021

$6

Third Quarter YTD of

2020 vs 2021

Total Dollar Volume

$299M

$300

$5

Million

37%

$5.33M

$4 $3.42M $3.52M $3 $2 $1 $0

2017

Million

$200

$100

$89M

$111M

119%

$138M $136M

2020 vs 2020

$50 $0

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

$250

$150

$3.95M $3.90M

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

2021

2021

Average Price Per Square Foot $1,500

$1,239

$1,200 $900

$783

$764

$901

$923

34%

$600

2020 vs 2021

$300 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

4% 2020 vs 2021

92%

92%

91%

93%

97%

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market

297

347 2017

2018

353

239

2019

2020

193 2021

19% 2020 vs 2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

60%

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

26

34

35

35

56

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2020 vs 2021

Third Quarter YTD of

BRUSH CREEK RANCH

Snowmass Village, Colorado

102 ACRES INCLUDING 3 LOTS | 6 BEDROOMS | 6 BATHROOMS | 3,616 SF

EDGEWOOD RETREAT

Snowmass Village, Colorado

LUXURY RENTAL 4 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 4,893 SF

SNOWMASS VILLAGE

Condos and Townhomes

Condo and townhome prices in Snowmass Village remain nearly flat, with a median price of $845,000 and an average price of $1.3 million. Sales increased from 113 to 188, and sales volume similarly increased by 66% to $245.3 million.

The average price per square foot rose from $805 to $932.

At the end of September, there were 18 townhome or condo units on the market in Snowmass Village, compared to 93 last September.

In the Snowmass Village condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold for $9 million, compared to last year’s high of $5.3 million.

Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village through September declined from 262 in 2020 to 151, while the percentage of sold price to original list price rose from 94% last year to 98% this year.

Median Sold Price Hundred Thousand

$1M

$835K $845K

$800 $600

$699K $561K

1%

$508K

$400

2020 vs 2021

$200 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

Average Sold Price

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

$1.5M $1.2M

0%

Million

$200

$148M

$150 $100

$71M

$75M

$600 $300 $0

2017

2020 vs 2021 2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

2021

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

66%

$95M

$50 $0

$720K

$245M

$250

$1.01M

$958M

$900

2020 vs 2021

Total Dollar Volume

$1.31M $1.30M

2021

Average Price Per Square Foot $932

$1,000 $800

$765 $622

$805

16%

$640

$600 $400

2020 vs 2021

$200 $0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

4% 2020 vs 2021

95%

95%

96%

94%

98%

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market

367 2017

256

214 2018

262

2019

2020

151 2021

42% 2020 vs 2021

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

66%

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

74

104

94

113

188

2020

2021

2020 vs 2021 2017

2018

2019 Third Quarter YTD of

BASE VILLAGE PENTHOUSE

Snowmass Village, Colorado

LUXURY RENTAL 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,000 SF

LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com