Third Quarter Market Report | Christie's International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass

Third Quarter 2020 Market Report Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Economic Overview Nationally

By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

After a strong start to 2020, the sudden arrival of the novel coronavirus in early March drove the US economy into a sharp and brief but very deep recession. Extremely aggressive monetary and fiscal policies coming from Washington, DC, prevented a much worse outcome. By May or June, the shortest recession in US history was over, and the economic recovery we are currently experiencing began. While the 31.3% drop in annualized GDP in 20Q2 was the largest decline in GDP since at least the Great Depression, annualized growth in 20Q3 will come at 25% and possibly 30%, making it the best quarter ever. However, growth is now noticeably slowing, and additional fiscal stimulus seems unlikely until after the presidential inauguration and a new Congress is sworn in. As a result, 20Q4 growth will be at most 10%, and it will take until late 2021 for GDP to return to where it was before the pandemic arrived, and early 2023 before the same can be said for employment. As for the elections, during 20Q3 Democratic nominee, Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump was remarkably stable, and he currently has a solid edge heading into election day.

Sales were remarkably strong in the housing market through midMarch but then collapsed as lockdowns were imposed, with sales bottoming in early April. Since then, sales have staged a remarkable recovery no matter how measured. The combination of rock-bottom interest rates, pent up demand from before the pandemic, from the lockdown period, and oddly enough, from the novel coronavirus itself have pushed existing sales, new home sales, and pending sales well above their pre-pandemic levels and shows no sign of weakening. Moreover, with inventories very tight, house prices look to continue rising. In short, the housing sector is one of the very few enjoying a true V-shape recovery.

“Since then sales have staged a remarkable recovery no matter how measured.�

Economic Overview Colorado Aspen remains under a “Safer at Home” public health order, which requires all persons two years and older to wear a face-covering outside of their home and generally limits informal gathering sizes to 10 people or less. Across the State of Colorado, the rate of spread remains relatively low. However, the State recently issued new guidelines for the winter ski season, which continues to emphasize social distancing and masks. Importantly, many tourism-based businesses are modifying cancellation policies to not pressure customers into traveling if they are sick. Many communities, including Aspen, continue to explore ways to facilitate outdoor dining by erecting tents and covering and heating patios.

“Statewide, single -family homes’ median sales prices rose 12.5% over last September and are up 7.5% yearto-date.”

The Colorado unemployment rate had been essentially flat at 2.5% from October 2019 to February 2020, the lowest level in recent memory, but even in March, the impacts of Covid-19 were meaningfully felt as the rate ticked up to 5.2%. It peaked out in April at 12.2%, and as of August is at 6.7%. Statewide, continuing claims for unemployment skyrocketed from 21,956 in mid-March and peaked in midMay at 265,499. They have since slowly declined and for the week ended September 26 were 127,012, half of what we saw at peak. First-time claims for unemployment are three times pre-Covid levels but down significantly from their April highs.

Statewide, single-family homes’ median sales prices rose 12.5% over last September and are up 7.5% year-to-date. Closed sales of single-family homes in September were up 30% to nearly 10,000, while active listings are down more than 50% compared to last year. There were clear indications in this summer’s real estate activity that some urban dwellers with available resources have been leaving the cities and buying in resort areas like Aspen and Snowmass Village. As Pitkin County begins to consider regulations that may reduce the maximum size of houses and other regulations to slow growth, existing homes in the area will continue to gain in desirability and price.

Aspen

Single Family Homes For January - September of 2020, there have been 96 sales of single-family homes (compared to 63 at this point last year), with a median sales price just over $9 million, up from $6.1 million for the same period last year, a staggering 49% increase! Average sale prices for the same period rose from $7.7 million in 2019 to $11.3 million in 2020, a 46% increase.

Overall sales volume more than doubled from nearly $486 million to more than $1.08 billion.

The most expensive single-family home sold so far this year was for $32 million, while through Q3 2019 the most expensive home sold for $23 million.

Average days on market for single-family homes decreased from 321 days in 2019 to 310 for 2020.

$10

Median Sold Price

$9.07M

Millions

$8 $6 $5.31M

$6.25M

$5.45M

$6.10M

49%

2019 vs 2020

$4 $2 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

46%

2019 vs 2020

Average Sold Price

$11.26M

$12

Third Quarter YTD of

$10

Millions

$0

$8

$8.02M $6.47M

$6.73M

$7.71M

$6 $4 $2

$1.2B

Total Dollar Volume

Millions

$800

$625M

$600

$200 $0

2016

$377M

123%

$486M

2019 vs 2020

$220M

2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

$1.08B

$1.0B

$400

$0

2020

Average Price Per SQFT $1,839

$2,000 $1,500 $1,420

$1,583 $1,588

$1,469

25%

$1,000

2019 vs 2020

$500 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

% Sold Price to Original List Price

0%

2019 vs 2020

91%

92%

93%

91%

91%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 242

345

262

321

310

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3%

2019 vs 2020

Third Quarter YTD of

52%

2019 vs 2020

Number of Properties Sold SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

34

78

56

63

96

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Great West End Family Home Aspen, Colorado

4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 4,833 SQFT LISTED BY: TONY DILUCIA 970.379.4275 AND NICK LINCOLN 970.379.5064

Sophisticated Mountain Contemporary

Aspen, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 3 HALF BATHROOMS | 7,856 SQFT LISTED BY: COLTER SMITH 970.309.2000

Aspen

Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Aspen are also up significantly over last year for the 118 properties which closed so far this year (compared to 109 properties last year). Median sales price rose from $1.85 million to $2.64 million (a 43% gain), while average prices rose by 73% to more than $3.8 million. Sales volume was up by 87% to $449 million.

In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive condo sold this year was for $18.3 million compared to $6.85 million for the same period in 2019.

In contrast to the single-family home market, condo/townhome days on market rose from 222 to 270.

$3.0

Median Sold Price

$2.64M

Millions

$2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.27M

$1.50M $1.58M

$1.85M

43%

2019 vs 2020

$1.0 $0.5 $0.0

2017

2016

2018

2019

2020

$3.5

$2.76M

$3.0

Millions

2019 vs 2020

$3.81M

$4.0

Third Quarter YTD of

73%

Average Sold Price $2.20M

$2.5 $2.04M $2.19M $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5

$500

Total Dollar Volume

Millions

$200

$311M $206M

$265M

2016

2017

2018

Third Quarter YTD of

2019

2019 vs 2020 2020

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

87%

$240M

$100 $0

2016

$449M

$400 $300

$0.0

2020

Average Price Per SQFT

$2,000 $1,500 $1,270

$1,377

$1,847

$1,527 $1,580

17%

$1,000

2019 vs 2020

$500 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

0%

2019 vs 2020

95%

95%

94%

95%

95%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 226

241

309

222

270

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

22%

2019 vs 2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

8%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

101

142

96

109

118

2016

2017

2019

2020

2018 Third Quarter YTD of

Residences at the Little Nell Aspen, Colorado

3 AND 4 BEDROOMS SHARED OWNERSHIP | MINIMUM OF 6 WEEKS PER YEAR LISTED BY: HALDEMAN BANNER TEAM 970.510.0037

Walk to Everything

Aspen, Colorado

2 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 1,637 SQFT LISTED BY: JONATHAN FEINBERG 970.379.3405

Snowmass Village Single Family Homes

For January through September in Snowmass Village, the median sales price of single-family homes gained 33%, rising from $2.69 million to $3.59 million, although the average sales price was nearly flat at $3.9 million.

Single-family sales in Snowmass Village were flat at 35, and sales volume of single-family was virtually flat at $138 million.

The most expensive single-family home sold so far this year in Snowmass Village sold for just over $8 million. By comparison, the most expensive single-family home sold at this point last year was for $15.6 million.

Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village during January-September declined from 353 in 2019 to 239 in 2020 $4.0 $3.5

Median Sold Price

$3.59M

$3.39M $2.57M $2.73M $2.69M

Millions

$3.0 $2.5

33%

2019 vs 2020

$2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

1%

2019 vs 2020 $150

Total Dollar Volume $129M

$120

Millions

$138M $136M

$4.04M $3.42M $3.25M

$30 2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

$3.95M $3.89M

$3 $2 $1 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2019 vs 2020

$60

$0

$4

Average Sold Price

1%

$111M $89M

$90

$5

Millions

$0.0

2020

$1,000

Average Price Per SQFT

$903

$783

$800

$901

$923

$764

2%

$600

2019 vs 2020

$400 $200 $0

2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

3%

2019 vs 2020

92%

92%

93%

90%

93%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 323

347

2016

2017

297

353

239

2018

2019

2020

32%

2019 vs 2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

0%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

32

26

34

35

35

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Snowmass Village Gem Snowmass Village, Colorado

3 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 1,915 SQFT LISTED BY: JOSHUA LANDIS 970.948.9485

Pine Crest Ski-In, Ski-Out Snowmass Village, Colorado

5 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,500 SQFT RENTAL FEATURED BY: PJ BORY 970.319.2178

Snowmass Village

Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices increased significantly, with median prices up 19% to $835,000 and average sales prices up 30% to $1.31 million.

The number of condo/townhome sales rose from 94 to 113 and sales volume rose 56% to $147.9 million. The most expensive property went for $5.25 million this year, compared to $6.1 million last year. Average days on market increased from 256 to 262.

Median Sold Price

$1,000 $800

$835K $695K

$600

$699K $561K

19%

$508K

$400

2019 vs 2020

$200 $0

2016

2017

2019

2018

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Sold Price

$1,500

30%

2019 vs 2020

$1,200

$1.31M

$900

$720K

$600 $300 $0

2016

$148M

Millions

$120

$60

56%

$95M

$90

$53M

$71M

$75M

2017

2018

2019 vs 2020

$30 $0

2016

Third Quarter YTD of

2019

2020

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

Total Dollar Volume $150

$1.01M

$950K $958K

2020

Average Price Per SQFT $1,000 $800

$642

$622

$600

$640

$765

$805

2019 vs 2020

$400 $200 $0

5%

2016

2017

2018

2019

Third Quarter YTD of

2020

% Sold Price to Original List Price

1%

2019 vs 2020

93%

95%

95%

95%

94%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Average Days on Market 385

367

214

256

262

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2%

2019 vs 2020

Third Quarter YTD of

Number of Properties Sold

20%

2019 vs 2020

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

56

74

104

94

113

2016

2017

2018 Third Quarter YTD of

2019

2020

Capitol Peak Lodge

Snowmass Village, Colorado 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 1,487 SQFT LISTED BY: PJ BORY 970.319.2178

Ski-In, Ski-Out Snowmass Village Snowmass Village, Colorado

2 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,285 SQFT LISTED BY: PJ BORY 970.319.2178