DELTA URBANIZATION The mathematical relationships of delta cities
Cali Nellis & Carlos Paz | Professor LaRaine Papa Montgomery | Winter 2013
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URBA STUDIO II | DELTA URBANIZATION: The mathematical relationships of thriving cities | Cali Nellis & Carlos Paz
CONTENTS 4 INTRODUCTION 6 INTRINSIC COMMONALITIES & MATHEMATICAL RELATIONSHIPS OF THREE DELTA CITIES 11 CASE STUDIES: URBAN WATER RELATIONSHIPS 14 NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA: INFRASTRUCTURE AND DISASTER RESPONSE 22 SITE CONDITIONS: THE UPPER NINTH WARD 24 SITE PERCEPTIONS: THE UPPER NINTH WARD 26 SUGGESTED ADAPTATION FOR THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS 30 SUGGESTED ADAPTATION FOR THE UPPER NINTH WARD 32 PHASE ONE, 2013 - 2018 36 PHASE TWO, 2018 - 2038 38 PHASE THREE, 2038-2078 45 SUMMATION
INTRODUCTION “The task is to prepare the landscape for still uncertain future changes, and create points of departure for that in the here and now... It is essential to exploit the ‘latent talent’ of the landscape: to enlarge upon the physical structure and layeredness of the land, to make use of the temporal dynamic that lies hidden in the landscape, to investigate the ‘maximum carrying capacity’ for new programmes and to reveal and reinforce the latent spatiality of the landscape.” Frits Palmboom, Palmbout Urban Landscapes, Drawing the Ground Cover: Harold Fisk map of the Mississippi Alluvial Basin and rendering Louisiana aerial
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URBA STUDIO II | DELTA URBANIZATION: The mathematical relationships of thriving cities | Cali Nellis & Carlos Paz
Future changes are less uncertain in urbanized deltas. The water is rising and the severity of storms is increasing.
Photo: NWS Lt Commander Mark Moran
INTRINSIC COMMONALITIES New Orleans, in the Mississippi River delta, Alexandria, in the Nile River delta, and Shanghai, in the Yangtze River delta, are the largest cities in their respective deltas. Each city is bound by a limit on its size and population; each contains 12% of the delta population within 7% of the land area of the delta.
Pd = Total Delta Population Pc = Total City Population
Ad = Total Delta Land Area Ac = Total City Land Area
Pc = 0.12(Pd )
Ac = 0.07(Pd )
Pc = 12%
Pd = 88%
Ac = 07%
Ad = 93%
A1 = Largest city ranked by land area 6
URBA STUDIO II | DELTA URBANIZATION: The mathematical 1050 relationships of thriving cities | Cali Nellis & Carlos PazA1 =
New Orleans Alexandria
A1 = Largest city ranked by land area A1 = New Orleans Alexandria
1050 Pd = 88%
Ad = 93%
350
1 2 3 4 5 A1 = Largest city ranked by land area P1 = Largest city ranked by population 1050 8 mil
6
350 1 mil
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 P1 = Largest city ranked by population D1 = City ranked highest in population density 8 mil 45,000
1 mil 7,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 D1 = City ranked highest in population density
A1 = New Orleans P1 = Memphis Alexandria Cairo where: P1 New Orleans, P3 ≈ 2 Alexandria, P3 �
P1 2
P1 = Memphis D1 =Cairo Minneapolis Cairo where: P1 where: New Orleans, P3 ≈ D 2 New Orleans, D6 = 1 6.3 P1 Alexandria, P3 � D 21 Alexandria, D3 = 10.9
45,000 D1 = Minneapolis These two delta cities exhibit unsustainable urban growth, expanding Cairo the urbanized area at a rate disproportionate to the population growth, where: D harming an already fragile ecosystem. New Orleans, D6 = 1 6.3 Shanghai exhibits a more sustainable growth pattern: D1 7,000 Alexandria, D3 = P 10.9 A
Our hypothesis is that this limit exists largely due to the ecological systems in place in major river deltas, where political and social limits are vast different between these three cities.
MATHEMATICAL REL ATIONSHIPS Demographic: [P] population of the city (c) or delta (d) [D] population density of the city Topographic: [A] land area of the city (c) or delta (d) [E] elevation in feet
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Economic: [B] situational benefit [R] risk of flooding [I] probability of inundation [V] value of investment Responsive: [H] height of flood walls/levees built [C] total cost of rebuilding
URBA STUDIO II | DELTA URBANIZATION: The mathematical relationships of thriving cities | Cali Nellis & Carlos Paz
The D= R= H= C=
conditions that relate these factors: P/A IxV ( V x |E| ) / C RxM
The principle that leads to the siting of cities in fragile environments: B>R The relationship that ought to exist in order to live with regard for the ecological forces at work in deltaic cities, where the land area of the city should be greater than the land area occupied by residents at the given population density: AC > PC / D
CASE STUDIES: Urban Water Relationships
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Historically, humanity has sought water when siting new cities. We need water to survive and develop thriving habitats. As many cities grew, their relationships with this life force seemed to harden as humanity struggled with keeping the water out of the city.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert Einstein
“We as a human race are responsive in nature; we wait until something happens and then we take action... History does not repeat itself, humans are making the same mistake over and over again.” Earl Blumenauer, Water Wars, 2009
12 URBA STUDIO II | DELTA URBANIZATION: The mathematical relationships of thriving cities | Cali Nellis & Carlos Paz
Photo: NWS Lt Commander Mark Moran
NEW ORLEANS
Photo: Glyn Lewis
ALEXANDRIA
Photo: AFP / Getty Images
SHANGHAI
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NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA
EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURES TOPOGRAPHIC TRANSPORTATION HISTORIC GREEN WATER REMOVAL
0
0
2000
4000
2000
4000
STUDIO SITE
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0
2000
4000
0
2000
4000
0
2000
4000
THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF DISPL ACEMENT The transportation and historic infrastructures of New Orleans identify the lowest parts of the city as the newest land development. This is the back-swamp, the undesirable land at the lowest topographies that is typically inhabited by residents of low socioeconomic status. These are the people who’ve been unable to return.
Photo: Still Here, Joseph Rodriguez
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Total Population 484,674
343,829
Population Density
6,180 26,840
4,337
Vacant Housing Units
47,738
Average Household Size 2.5 2.4 35.5
Median Age
37.2
New Orleans has lost 25% of its population since Hurricane Katrina. The number of vacant homes has doubled. Families with children have needed to choose to remain in distant cities where school and healthcare systems remained intact.
THE IMPACT IN THE UPPER NINTH WARD The demographic shift in the Upper Ninth Ward, the neighborhoods of St Claude and Bywater, reflects the shift at the city scale.
population 2000
population 2010
vacant homes 2000
vacant homes 2010
16,817
10,157
1,242
2,468
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EDUCATION not thriving
HOUSING
POVERTY thriving
SITE CONDITIONS
LOCATION
TOPOGRAPHY
BLIGHTED PROPERTIES
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BLIGHTED ROADS
COMMUNITY PLACES
PERMEABLE SURFACE
SITE PERCEPTIONS
PORTRAIT
EDGE
URBAN FABRIC
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SUGGESTED ADAPTATION The structure of the city needs to change, to reorient itself to natural systems. Our proposal to achieve this reorientation is to apply a rank-size distribution to the city, divided into square-mile units, giving water and permeable surfaces the top two ranking spots, above urban fabric.
NORMAL RANK SIZE DISTRIBUTION X 1 = Largest in a set X 2 = Second largest in a set X 3 = Third largest in a set ... Xn
X2 =
X1 2
X3 =
X1 3
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EXISTING PROPOSAL Water, X 1 = 136 sq miles Permeable, X 2 = 68 sq miles Urban, X 3 = 46 sq miles
SUGGESTED ADAPTATION 0
2000
4000
At the city scale, marsh and wetlands should be introduced as a single system, located where most appropriate: in the lowest topographies and to serve as an ecological, protective barrier to the city.
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This change in the green infrastructure of the city will ease revitalization and maintenance costs. In the wake of Hurricane Katrina,
$125 billion federal $120.5 billion philanthropic $30 billion insurance dollars have been spent on repairing damage incurred.
SUGGESTED ADAPTATION: Upper Ninth Ward At the site scale, new infrastructure must be added to make land at higher elevations above sea level more desirable for residents of all income levels. Blight in the district:
2,468 vacant homes 6,660 net population loss
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Additions to the neighborhood should include
Schools Community centers Evacuation route access Grocer y & Commercial Public Housing
UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE ONE 2013 - 2018 I>C
Vacant properties in the northmost zone of the site remain vacant, where the probability of inundation outweighs the costs that would be incurred in redevelopment.
BUILT
ADDED
POPULATION
TOTAL PROPERTIES NOT REDEVELOPED: 0 OF 2,468 VACANT
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SITE AERIAL
MASTER PLAN
UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE ONE 2013 - 2018 Water introduced during phase one is at an inlet pond in the north-east quadrant of the site, where the north canal is opened to the Industrial Canal; much of the character of the northern half of the ward remains intact.
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UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE TWO 2018 - 2038 I>B
Blight in the district is the result of the probability of inundation being greater than the benefit of rebuilding. The adaptation introduces swales in residential blocks to alleviate blight and generate water ownership. BUILT
ADDED
POPULATION
TOTAL PROPERTIES NOT REDEVELOPED: 838 OF 2,468 VACANT
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SITE AERIAL
MASTER PLAN
UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE TWO 2018-2038 Water introduced during phase two is in the form of bioswales running through residential blocks, which facilitate the flow of water downward through the topography, creating more marsh land in the north. New public housing built is 5-family structures based on the shotgun typology.
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UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE THREE 2038-2078 R>B
The founding principle of the city will have inverted by the end of this phase, and the risk of flooding will outweigh the benefit of the city’s location. The only way to mitigate this is to live with the water.
BUILT
ADDED
POPULATION
TOTAL PROPERTIES NOT REDEVELOPED: 1752 OF 2,468 VACANT
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SITE AERIAL
MASTER PLAN
UPPER NINTH WARD, PHASE THREE 2038-2078 Water introduced during phase three is in the character of the marsh that now occupies the northern portion of the site. The wetlands become a destination where city residents engage and explore the water.
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The proposal invites residents to reconnect with water, encourages an adaptive land use strateg y to alleviate blight in the city and promotes a sustainable relationship with the natural systems that humanity must engage. Delta cities must seek this balance to remain relevant on the global scale, or else perish by the impact of the nature being kept out of the city.