three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business
n Sunday, June 28, 2015 Vol. 10 No. 262
Slow GDP growth seen to continue T By Bianca Cuaresma
week ahead
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW
Peso
n Previous week: The local currency traded largely in the lower band of the 45 territory in the previous week. The peso started trading at 45.05 to a dollar on Monday, proceeding to decrease in value on Tuesday at 45.1 to a dollar. On Wednesday the peso hit 45.125 to a dollar and further depreciated at 45.135 to a dollar on Thursday. The peso ended the week with a slight depreciation to 45.085 to a dollar. The total traded value during the week is at $2.72 billion, while the average value of the peso during the week is at 45.099 to a dollar. n Week ahead: Markets are still keen on the expected data release from the US next week. The peso is still expected to trade within the range in the lower band of the 45 territory, with the bias depending on the results of the economic data from the world’s largest economy.
May 2015 domestic liquidity
Tuesday, June 30 n April M3: Cash circulating in the local economy broadly maintained its pace to a high single-digit growth at the end of April this year, the central bank reported last month. Domestic liquidity—broadly measured as M3—grew by 9 percent in April this year. This is a slightly faster growth from the revised 8.7-percent expansion seen in the previous month. In absolute terms, money supply in the country hit P7.6 trillion as of the start of the second quarter this year. n May M3: The central bank, with its unchanged monetary policy, was able to lower the liquidity growth to more normalized rates and sustain this level. In the recent monetary-policy decision, the Bangko Sentral described the liquidity in the country as “ample” to support local growth. Bianca Cuaresma
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With $21T, China’s savers are set to change the world
HE weakness in the growth of the economy in the first three months of the year may continue until the end of the second quarter, as exports and government spending—the main factors behind the deceleration of growth in the first quarter of the year—are expected to continue up to the second half of the year.
In separate research notes, economists of international private banks forecast persistent weaknesses in exports and government spending in the recent and coming months. JPMorgan chief economist Sin Beng Ong said in a research commentary that the country must watch the slowdown in exports more closely, particularly its impact on domestic demand. “More broadly, the recent
economic narrative in the Philippines presumes that the lift in exports should engender a positive income effect that percolates into domestic demand, especially investment. While this narrative still holds, the decline in exports in the first quarter of 2015 has been larger than expected. Thus, there is some risk that this external slowdown could affect nonconstruction investment,” Ong said.
“At this point, the slowdown in growth appears to be specific to the external sector, though, there is some risk that this could spill over into domestic demand. The risks to growth remain modestly tilted to the downside,” the JPMorgan analyst added. In a separate research note, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. economist Trinh Nguyen said government See “GDP Growth,” A2
PHL still has time to brace for AEC By Roderick L. Abad
W
ITH a few months before the commencement of the integration of the economies of all the 10 member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in December, the Philippines still has time to prepare, so as not to lag behind its peers once the market becomes open to all the players within the region. Collaboration among all concerned, including the state and the private sector, is what 2015 Asian Marketing Leadership Summit Overall Chairman Donald Patrick L. Lim called for to strengthen further the country’s competitiveness. “So, I think, all stakeholder groups—the government, academe and industry—have to really just go all-out there,” he said. “We have to
PESO exchange rates n US 45.1430
work together.” Lim conceded, though, that the entrepreneurs themselves, and even big industries, like the manufacturing and agriculture, among others, are not fully ready for the upcoming Asean Economic Community (AEC). “As for my personal assessment—though I don’t have the numbers to back it up—I don’t think a lot of entrepreneurs today are prepared [for that],” he said, while citing that micro, small and medium enterprises comprise around 96 percent of the registered businesses in the country to date. “And if you look at, for example, our manufacturing and agriculture sectors, I also don’t think they are,” he added. While their ideas and quality of products or services they provide are on a par with their counterparts abroad, it has been noted that small-
By Enda Curran & Jeff Kearns | Bloomberg
H
ONG KONG—Few events will be as significant for the world in the next 15 years as China opening its capital borders, a shift that economists and regulators across the world are now starting to grapple with. With China’s leadership aiming to scale back the role of investment in the domestic economy, the nation’s surfeit of savings—de-
posits currently stand at $21 trillion —will increasingly need to be deployed overseas. That’s also becoming easier, as Premier Li Keqiang relaxes capital-flow regulations. The consequences ultimately could rival the transformation wrought by the Communist nation’s fusion with the global trading system, capped by its 2001 World Trade Organization entry. That stage saw goods made cheaper across the world, boosting the purchasing Continued on A2
See “AEC,” A2
n japan 0.3653 n UK 71.0777 n HK 5.8238 n CHINA 7.2701 n singapore 33.6261 n australia 34.9892 n EU 50.5827 n SAUDI arabia 12.0385 Source: BSP (26 June 2015)