Moody’s: BSP to deliver another rate cut T
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to again cut interest rates in April to boost the local economy amid the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. In its weekly highlights, Moody’s Analytics said the BSP is expected to shave off another 50 basis points from the country’s interest rates this month. Reports showed the Monetary Board has already cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year. The overnight reverse repurchase rate is now at 3.25 percent. “The central bank followed with guidance that the policy rate is likely to be reduced by 50 basis points in April,” Moody’s said. “[Last week] the government announced further support via a $527-million fiscal package.”
PUBLIC-UTILITY vehicle (PUV) drivers, out of work because of the suspension of all forms of public transportation due to the Luzon-wide lockdown, line the street leading to a Land Bank office in Quezon City to receive financial aid from the government. A total of 435,619 PUV drivers are set to receive financial support through the government’s social amelioration program. NONIE REYES
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In the Philippines, Moody’s said the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), which covered the whole of Luzon island, will likely have a heavier toll on the economy. It stressed that Luzon is home to 60 million people or 57 percent of the country’s population. It also accounts for about 70 percent of GDP. Moody’s said many economies in the Asia-Pacific region have increased containment and set aside large stimulus packages to pump-prime the economy. Singapore, for one, has allocated S$60 billion or 12 percent of its GDP. This, Moody’s said, is unprecedented and has exceeded the stimulus package Singapore had during the Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009. Despite these containment measures and stimulus, Moody’s said trade-exposed
economies like Singapore remain threatened by weak global demand. “Recession risks remain for the trade-exposed economy, with weak global demand and mass supply chain disruptions likely to continue for the second half of the year,” Moody’s said. Last week, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said the economy could post zero growth to as low as a contraction of 1 percent this year due to Covid-19.
Previous contractions
THE Philippine economy is no stranger to these low levels of GDP growth rates. The last time GDP contracted was in 1998 and 1991 when full-year GDP both contracted 0.6 percent. Prior to those years, the last time GDP contracted was in 1984 and 1985 at 7.3 percent.
In 1998 there was a severe El Niño and the tailend of the Asian Financial Crisis. In 1991 the economy suffered from the residual effects of the July 1990 earthquake and Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in June 1991. The years 1984 and 1985 were the last two years of the Marcos administration. A few months after the end of 1985, in February 1986, the country had the world’s first bloodless revolution and saw a change in administration. Initial estimates of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said that given the simultaneous adverse effects on the supply and the demand side of the economy, a cumulative loss of P428.7 billion to P1.36 trillion in gross value added using current prices may be expected. This is equivalent
See “Moody’s,” A2
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‘WIDER BUDGET DEFICIT WILL BOOST ECONOMY’ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Tuesday, April 14, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 187
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
SEN. Lawrence Christopher Go, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, BCDA President and CEO Vince Dizon and House Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano lead the inspection on Monday of “We Heal As One” centers at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium in Manila, which will serve as quarantine facilities for Covid-19 patients. ROY DOMINGO
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By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
N economist-lawmaker wants the government to widen its budget deficit up to nearly 8 percent of GDP as the government needs to implement fiscal programs to keep the economy afloat following the impact of Covid-19 pandemic. In his 109-page Philippine National Stimulus Strategy report to be submitted to the Palace, House Committee on Ways and Means Chairman Joey Sarte Salceda said widening the budget deficit to 7.8 percent of GDP would result in a 1.3-percent growth for the economy this year, apparently averting the first contraction of the economy in 18 years. Allowing for a wider budget deficit is also supported by a senior senator and former director general of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). In a text message to the BusinessMirror, Senate President Pro Tempore Ralph Recto said: “We can afford 10 percent GDP deficit for the next two to three years. But we have to act fast. Test, isolate, treat. Allow those who are immune and negative to start working. Slowly allow businesses to operate. Provide longterm interest free loans to MSME [medium small micro enterprises], and reduce taxes.” A budget deficit occurs when expenditures exceed revenues. However, Salceda said the government should maintain its focus on deficit spending until 2022 so that the government could quickly recover from the slump.
Citing his estimates, Salceda said the government needs to widen its budget deficit to 7.4 percent of GDP by 2021 and 5.2 percent of GDP by 2022. These would be way above the economic managers’ projections in December last year at 3.2 percent for the said years. This, the lawmaker said, would result in economic growth of 4.5 percent and 6.0 percent of GDP, respectively. Should the government decide to minimize its deficit this year, Salceda estimates that the economy would indeed contract by 0.3 percent this year even if they widen the budget to 5.8 percent of GDP. By 2021, he said a 5-percent deficit-to-GDP ratio would yield an economic growth of only 2.5 percent, while a 3.5-percent deficit-toGDP ratio would result in growth of 5.5 percent by 2022. “Given the choice between spending measures and tax relief, spending is preferable,” he said. “Spending can boost GDP, and therefore arrest the decline in revenue; tax cuts are hard to roll back,” Salceda added.
Special hearing
MEANWHILE, Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano said the lower chamber
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will hold a special hearing on Tuesday to tackle the fiscal stimulus plan to help the government deal with the impact of Covid-19. In an FB live session, Cayetano said the House Economic Stimulus Response Package Cluster will lead the hearing, which will be conducted through a video conferencing platform. “We will have a modified hearing with our economic stimulus cluster. The executives would talk first, then our three lawmakers, Rep. Joey Salceda, Rep. Sharon Garin and Rep. Stella Quimbo would present their proposals,” Cayetano said. Salceda is a co-chairman of the House Economic Stimulus Response Package Cluster. Salceda is proposing a P169.9billion “Filipino Families First” stimulus plan to encourage families and businesses to comply with public health measures and to speed up economic recovery after the crisis. He also proposed to President Duterte a P45-billion wage subsidy scheme to cover 5.98 million workers for small and medium enterprises, sole entrepreneurs and freelancers affected by the implementation of the six-week ECQ. Quimbo’s proposal, meanwhile, seeks to allocate P108 billion for a fiscal stimulus package to cushion the pandemic’s impact on the economy. Under the proposed Economic Rescue Plan for Covid-19, the fiscal stimulus package shall be broken down as follows: P43 billion for assistance and promotion of the tourism sector, P15 billion for unemployment assistance, and P50 billion for assistance for business, particularly micro, small, and medium enterprises, which includes loan packages and subsidies. With a report from Butch Fernandez
PHL PURSUING P8-B G2G RICE IMPORTS FOR STABLE SUPPLY
A WORKER, wearing a protective mask, carries sacks of rice at Muñoz Market in Quezon City. AP/AARON FAVILA
By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
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HE Philippines will push through with its P8-billion 300,000-metric ton rice importation via government-to-government (G2G) transaction to ensure the country has sufficient stockpile amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said the budget for the importation has been approved and will be handled by the Department of Trade and Industry’s Philippine
International Trading Corp. (PITC). The idea for the G2G rice importation came from the DA and the National Food Authority (NFA), Dar added. Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said the budget for the rice importation is P8 billion, while details of the G2G transaction are still being finalized. Dar said the DA and the NFA are providing technical advice to the PITC regarding the G2G importation since the NFA has been involved with rice importation, especially G2G, prior to
deregulation of the rice industry. “The budget for the importation has been approved and has been given to DTI-PITC. They will lead the G2G arrangement. We had a meeting last week, PITC [is] now leading the G2G discussions,” Dar said in a virtual press conference on Monday. According to Dar, there are various available rice suppliers in the world market today despite the reported export suspension by certain exporters like Vietnam. “There’s a lot of supply. We have
See “Rice,” A2
n JAPAN 0.4670 n UK 63.1354 n HK 6.5320 n CHINA 7.1960 n SINGAPORE 35.8122 n AUSTRALIA 32.1678 n EU 55.4277 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4722
Source: BSP (April 13, 2020)