three-time rotary club of manila journalism awardee 2006, 2010, 2012
U.N. Media Award 2008
BusinessMirror
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A broader look at today’s business
TfridayNovember 2014 Vol. 10 No. 120 40 Friday, February18, 6, 2015
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2.4% INFLATION IN JANUARY SLOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2013, BUT N.E.D.A. SAYS THREATS TO LOW-INFLATION REGIME REMAIN
El Niño, power woes to kick up prices By Cai U. Ordinario
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P.C.O.S. PROBE
n impending El Niño, or dry spell, and the country’s power woes could cause inflation to accelerate in 2015, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
Neda Director General and Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, however, said the government is aware of these risks, as well as other factors such as the exchange rate and adjustments in the United States monetary policy that could alter the low-inflation regime. “The lingering possibility of El Niño occurrence in the first quarter of 2015 and power woes remain an overhanging concern and must be holistically addressed,” Balisacan said. “Despite the expected monetarypolicy adjustments in the US and the general concerns about the sustainability of growth in emerging economies, the peso is expected to remain relatively stable due to the country’s strong external position and will contribute to stable domestic prices going forward,” Balisacan, however, said. Balisacan added that the favorable outlook on the production of agricultural commodities should further ease local price pressures in the coming months. In January the country’s commodity prices continued to slide and began the new year with a growth of only 2.4 percent, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). This was slower than the 2.7 percent posted in December 2014 and Continued on A2
Retired and incumbent Commission on Elections (Comelec) officials, who inked the P268.8million contract with Smartmatic-Total Information Management Corp. (TIM) for the diagnosis and repair of Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines, convince lawmakers that the transaction was aboveboard and beneficial to the government. Acting Comelec Chairman Christian Robert Lim (left) and former Comelec Chairman Sixto Brillantes Jr. debunked allegations that the deal with Smartmatic was tainted with irregularity, as it was a negotiated contract that did not undergo public bidding. They stressed that the government actually bagged a good deal out of it, saving as much as P60 million from the original contract price proposed by the election solutions provider. Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel Jr., cochairman of the Joint Congressional Oversight Committee on the Automated Election System, seemed to have found justifiable the explanations given by the poll officials. “I think as explained by former Chairman Brillantes, they [Comelec] got a better deal than the original deal terms that they were negotiationg on. As to whether it’s legal, the negotiated contract, let us leave that for the courts to determine,” he said in an interview with reporters after the hearing. Lim backed up the claims made by Brillantes, who have since retired from the Comelec, along with two other Comelec commissioners on Monday, that their decision to seal the contract of Smartmatic went through proper deliberations and was not a result of a haphazard decision. ROY DOMINGO
PROPERTY VALUE IN PHL AMONG HIGHEST By Bianca Cuaresma
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he Philippines suffers from a 21st century affliction known as urban agglomeration, whose practical effect is best shown by the overly congested state of housing in the National Capital Region (NCR), where prices are some of the world’s worst, according to analysts at McKinsey Global Institute. The sheer density of dwellings and other structures in the NCR leads to the rise of real-estate prices
PESO exchange rates n US 44.0530
in the country that are some of the highest among developing countries. The phenomenon known as urban agglomeration is characterized by the tendency of the larger portions of population crowding to take shelter at the center of economic activity, distorting the nation’s demographics in the process. “We find that, in countries where a large share of the population flocks to a single center of economic activity, or to a handful of megacities, housing prices [prove] higher than in countries where economic activity is more dis-
tributed,” the McKinsey study said. Its analysts said that in some developing economies, for example, Indonesia maintains five urban agglomerations, while Vietnam has only two but that the Philippines has one huge lump right here in Metro Manila. “We find that Indonesia’s real-estate prices per square meter are the lowest, while Vietnam’s are higher and the Philippines’s are the highest,” the global management consulting firm said. Its analysts further said the same pattern holds true in the more devel-
oped countries such as in Europe, with Germany having seven such urban agglomerations compared to London, which has only one. The McKinsey research show that Germany has much lower real-estate prices compared to the United Kingdom. While its analysts urge the government to spread the growth areas and build several zones of economic activity outside Metro Manila, McKinsey said having concentrated points of development aren’t all that bad for the economy. See “Property,” A8
‘Jan inflation within range of forecast for policy horizon’
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he moderating path of inflation in January further bolsters the view of a withintarget inflation for this year, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). In a statement, BSP Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. welcomed the slower inflation print for the month, which he attributed to lower price changes in the utilities, gas and transport sectors. “[This] falls within our forecast range and bolsters our view of within-target inflation over our policy horizon,” Tetangco said. “We will continue to monitor developments, particularly in international oil prices and their impact on financial market volatilities and inflation expectations, to see if there is need to make adjustments to our policy levers,” the central bank governor added. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced on Thursday that inflation averaged lower, to 2.4 percent in January from 2.7 percent in December. This was the fifth consecutive month that inflation trended down since September last year, after having peaked at 4.9 percent in June and July. Earlier the central bank said the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), where Tetangco sits as ex-officio member, decided to keep the current inflation target of 2 percent to 4 percent until 2018. With the inflation outlook looking tamer down the line, several economists are of the consensus the central bank will likely keep the so-called policy rates intact where they are in the first half of the year at the very least. The central bank will have its first rate-setting meeting this year on February 12. Bianca Cuaresma
n japan 0.3763 n UK 66.9033 n HK 5.6816 n CHINA 7.0511 n singapore 32.6754 n australia 34.0835 n EU 49.9737 n SAUDI arabia 11.7396 Source: BSP (5 February 2015)