EDITORIAL

Beats a Poke in the Eye

lltHAT WITH ALL the dreary news, UU economic and otherwise, to which we have all been subjected of late, we thought a linle bit of tempered optimism was in order. The crepe hang:ers of fhe Gloom and Doom School are currently having their heyday. But, dismal as the news seems some davs. the world is not coming to an end. Honest-, gang.

The source of the followins bit of relatively encouraging news is the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a sobersided group not known for giddy enthusiasm. They say in their annual report:

"Yet withal, the West seems certain to get through 1980 with less damage than the national economy, perhaps with only a modest dip in its growth rate. The structure of the regional economy is in its favor, since it exhibits a smaller concentration of cyclical industries such as autos, and a greater concentration of relatively recession-proof indus- tries such as trade and services. Another plus is the likelihood of a continued boom in the key aerospace-manufacturing industry. That industry holds a bulging orderbook full of new business from the world's airlines and also from the Pentagon, which is boosting its spending in real terms for the first time in a decade. The strensth of overseas demand for the region's farri products and hightechnology products, especially in the fastgrowing Pacific Basin countries, also should provide underpinning for the Western economy. The overall look, then, is for a slowdown but not a maior recession durine 1980."

In some y"ears, such a forec-ast might not have brought forth anything more than a frown, but during the current period, a minor slowdown sounds like a sood deal. Something akin to the parablJ of the one-eyed man being king in the valley of the blind.

Their measured optimism is also a good balance during a time when really good news is all too scarce.