QIV-2021 QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY
Exports much lower than expected BDI downwardly adjusts GDP growth forecast for the year to just 2.5 percent
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German GDP will only get back to pre-crisis levels in 2022. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.7 percent compared to the previous quarter following price, calendar and seasonal adjustment. Fourth quarter GDP would have to exceed third quarter GDP by 1.1 percent to reach pre-crisis levels, which is not on the cards.
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Industry order books are full, but production is still sluggish. Shortages of supplies, which have kept production levels down over the spring and autumn, show no sign of improving any time soon.
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Supply bottlenecks in the automotive industry are curbing “made in Germany” exports. The BDI no longer expects the export of goods and services to grow 8.5 percent this year but by only eight percent in real terms. This would reduce the contribution to GDP of net exports from 1.2 percentage points down to 0.8 percentage points.
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GDP growth forecast adjusted on account of weaker-than-expected exports and strong imports. We now forecast overall economic output in 2021 to expand by only 2.5 percent in real terms (down from 3.0 percent).