Recovery falters at start of year | Strong growth expected in second half of the year 18/06/2021
Demand for capital goods only increased slightly in the first quarter 2021, going up 1.8 percent compared to the fourth quarter 2020. Year on year, orders were up by a notable 13 percent. Orders from domestic companies increased by 11.6 percent compared to last year and were thus slightly less dynamic than orders from abroad, which rose by 13.8 percent. Consumer goods producers only received a marginal 0.3 percent more orders in the first quarter 2021 than in the previous quarter. Year on year, orders were only up by 1.7 percent. While demand from within Germany dropped by 3.23 percent, orders from abroad were up by five percent compared to the same period last year. The recent steep rise in incoming orders has filled order books substantially. According to figures from the ifo Institute, orders in hand in manufacturing reached 3.5 production months at the start of the second quarter 2021, thus outperforming the record so far from the first half of 2018. The backlog of orders for producers of intermediates increased by 0.6 production months to 3.1 production months. Capital goods producers have orders in hand amounting to 4.4 production months, while orders among consumer goods producers remain at two months. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the backlog of orders in manufacturing increased in March 2021 for the tenth month in a row. Domestic orders in hand increased by 1.9 percent, while orders in hand from abroad increased by 1.2 percent. This means that more than one year after the start of the pandemic, the backlog of orders is 8.3 percent higher following seasonal and calendar adjustment than before restrictions were introduced in February 2020. Industrial production stalls in April In April, production in manufacturing dipped 0.6 percent compared to the previous month following seasonal and calendar adjustment and according to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical
Production, manufacturing 110
20
13.9
15 10
6.4
100
5 0 -0.2 -0.8
90
-5 -10 -15
80
-20 -25
70
-30 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Change over previous year, two-month-comparison, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office
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