Quarterly Report Germany II/2019

QII-2019 QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY

Back to growth without industry Services make up for decreasing industrial value added

▪

The German economy started off the year 2019 with solid growth.

Gross domestic product increased by 0.4 percent in the first quarter 2019 after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment, allaying fears of recession for now following the 0.2 percent drop in the third and stagnation in the fourth quarter 2018.

▪

Global economic risks are immense. A disorderly Brexit and massive disputes in international trade policy are unsettling investors around the world and already curbing global trade growth considerably.

▪

Despite increased global economic risks, corporate investment activity is still pointing up. In early 2019, plant and equipment investment continued to rise (up 2.3 percent year-on-year). Investment in buildings was up by 5.3 percent year-on-year, investment in other assets dropped slightly (down 0.1 percent).

▪

Private consumption up by only 1.1 percent year-on-year despite steep increase in employment and, in part, considerable wage increases. Public consumption increased by 1.4 percent year-on-year.

▪

The real export of goods and services increased by 1.5 percent in the first quarter. Real imports increased by 4.1 percent overall. Net exports pulled down GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points.

▪

We expect overall economic growth to grow by one percent in real terms in 2019. Calendar adjustment this year will be negligible.

Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Content The German economy......................................................................................................................... 3 First quarter 2019 unexpectedly strong ................................................................................................. 3 Above-average growth in exports to main trading partners .................................................................. 4 Labour market: employment levels continue to rise .............................................................................. 6 Industry ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Incoming orders for industry very sluggish at start of year ................................................................... 7 Industrial production weighed down by one-time factors at start of year .............................................. 8 Business sentiment has not been so weak since 2014 ...................................................................... 10 Capacity utilisation dropping but still above average .......................................................................... 10 Outlook ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Sources .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Imprint ................................................................................................................................................ 13 Basic data for national accounts ..................................................................................................... 14

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

The German economy First quarter 2019 unexpectedly strong The German economy seems to have got off to a good start this year. In the first quarter 2019, real GDP increased by 0.4 percent over the previous quarter following price, calendar and seasonal adjustment, after stagnating in the fourth and dropping 0.2 percent in the third quarter 2018. The unexpectedly strong performance has allayed fears of recession for the time being. The recovery is only minimal though, with economic output increasing by a mere 0.6 percent year-on-year. After calendar adjustment, first quarter growth was at 0.7 percent which is only just higher than in the last quarter 2018.

Growth in real GDP in percent 4

3 2.2

2.2 2

1.4 1

0

-1 I

II

III

IV

I

2016 change over previous year quarter

II

III 2017

IV

I

II

III 2018

change over previous quarter

IV

I

II

III

IV

2019 change over previous year

Source: Federal Statistical Office

On the output side, Germany’s economic output was generated by a workforce of 44.9 million. That is 481,000 people or 1.1 percent more than in the first quarter last year. The majority of new jobs was created in public services, education and healthcare (up 189,000 workers) and – despite decreased value added – the manufacturing sector (up 132,000). The number of jobs in retail, transport and hospitality rose by 81,000 and in the construction industry by 43,000. The number of people working in financial and insurance services dropped by 11,000 and in business services by 7,000. Price adjusted gross value added increased in almost all sectors of the economy compared to the previous year. The steepest rise by far, at 4.6 percent, was recorded by the construction industry on account of the good weather conditions. The information and communication sector also registered solid growth, going up 3.1 percent. Retail, transport and hospitality and public services both grew at a more moderate pace, climbing 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent respectively. Manufacturing was the only sector to record a decrease in growth. Although only down by 0.6 percentage points this time, it is the sector’s third consecutive quarter with negative growth.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

On the expenditure side of GDP, year-on-year growth resulted mainly from domestic activity. In the first quarter 2019, private consumption expenditure increased by 1.1 percent following price adjustment. Consumers mainly increased their spending on hotel and catering services and furniture and household goods. State consumption expenditure increased slightly more, going up by 1.4 percent.

Gross fixed capital formation rose for the fourth consecutive year, this time by 3.3 percent. Investment in construction registered the biggest rise, going up by 5.3 percent. Residential buildings (up five percent) was not the only sector to record solid growth. Investment in non-residential construction increased even more, rising 5.8 percent mainly on account of more public civil engineering activities (mainly road construction). Investment in plant and equipment registered a slightly more moderate increase than in the previous two years, growing by only 2.3 percent. For the first time since 2013, investment in other assets dropped (patents; licences), though only by 0.1 percent. Domestic expenditure increased overall by 1.6 percent. Real exports of goods and services rose by 1.5 percent in the first quarter, with both goods and services increasing equally. Real imports increased by 4.1 percent overall. The amount of goods imported from abroad grew considerably more than services imported from abroad.

All in all, net exports shaved 0.9 percentage points off GDP growth.

Above-average growth in exports to main trading partners In the first quarter 2019, exports of goods and services increased by a total of 8.3 billion euros or 2.5 percent compared to the previous year according to preliminary figures (country-specific seasonally adjusted data not available). The strongest growth in nominal terms was mainly seen in exports to countries outside the European Union. Exports to China grew by 1.44 billion euros or 6.5 percent, to the United States by just over one billion euros or 3.6 percent, and to Japan by nine percent (up 451 million). Exports to the British Virgin Islands in the Caribbean surged up by 426 million euros. German exports to EU countries outside the euro area also increased considerably. Exports to the United Kingdom grew by 1.19 billion euros (up 5.5 percent) despite the impending Brexit, to Poland by 580 million euros (up 3.8 percent), and to Hungary by 531 million euros (up 8.2 percent). Within the euro area, demand from both Austria (up 795 million) and France (up 795 million euros) increased substantially. Demand from Turkey dropped due to the country’s economic crisis, falling 942 million euros (down 17.2 percent). Exports to Saudi Arabia dropped by almost one quarter (down 391 million euros). The decrease in exports to Ireland of 31.5 percent or 846 million euros can probably be attributed to the renewed rise in exports to the United Kingdom.

In the first quarter 2019, German imports increased by a total of 13.2 billion euros or 4.9 percent compared to the previous year. The strongest growth in nominal terms was in trade with the United States, with imports from the country going up by 2.13 billion euros (up 13.7 percent). Imports from Ireland increased by slightly more than one half, rocketing up by 1.53 billion euros. Unusal for the Visegrad Four, only Poland managed an above-average increase in its exports to Germany (up 1.22 billion or 9.2 percent). Imports from Poland overtook imports from Italy for the first time. Imports from euro partner countries increased at normal levels, with those from the Netherlands up 4.2 percent, from France up 5.6 percent, from Austria up 6.1 percent and from Belgium up 4.2 percent. Imports from China (up 1.18 billion euros or 4.5 percent) and South Korea (up 523 million euros or 21.2 percent) also increased considerably. Imports from Switzerland and the United Kingdom increased by 453 million and 415 million euros respectively in nominal terms. Despite marginal price movements, imports dropped tangibly in terms of value from commodity exporters such as Kazakhstan (down 431 million euros or 37.6 percent) and Norway (down 1.05 billion euros or 24.6 percent).

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

German exports and imports in Q1 2019 in selected countries Year-on-year change increase (+) or decrease (-) in exports in million euros

increase (+) or decrease (-) in imports

in %

in million euros

China

23 551

+ 1 442

+

6.5

USA

Great Britain

22 726

+ 1 188

+

5.5

USA

29 128

+ 1 003

+

Austria

16 837

+

795

France

27 929

+

Poland

15 978

Hungary Japan

in %

17 654

+ 2 127

+ 13.7

Ireland

4 331

+ 1 531

+ 54.7

3.6

Poland

14 573

+ 1 223

+

9.2

+

5.0

China

27 150

+ 1 181

+

4.5

645

+

2.4

Netherlands

25 981

+ 1 055

+

4.2

+

580

+

3.8

France

17 071

+

912

+

5.6

7 039

+

531

+

8.2

Finland

2 717

+

787

+ 40.8

5 438

+

451

+

9.0

Austria

11 195

+

640

+

428

+

426

+23 381.0

South Korea

2 990

+

523

+ 21.2

Spain

11 694

+

385

+

3.4

Belgium

11 850

+

475

+

Switzerland

13 984

+

374

+

2.8

South Africa

2 099

+

474

+ 29.1

Switzerland

11 714

+

453

+

4.0

Great Britain

9 541

+

415

+

4.5

716

-

431

-

37.6

3 205

- 1 045

-

24.6

281 100

+ 13 224

+

4.9

British Virgin Islands

Saudi Arabia

1 222

-

391

-

24.3

Sweden

6 414

-

421

-

6.2

Ireland

1 842

-

846

-

31.5

Kazakhstan

Turkey

4 520

-

942

-

17.2

Norway

+ 8 316

+

2.5

Total

336 195

Total

6.1

4.2

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Labour market: employment levels continue to rise According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in employment increased to 45.11 million in April 2019, thus exceeding the 45 million mark for the first time this year. That means around 484,000 more people (or 1.1 percent) were gainfully employed compared to April last year. Jobs subject to social security contributions accounted for the majority of the increase. A total of 33.31 million people were in such employment in March 2018 (latest available data) according to the latest projections by the German Federal Employment Agency. This represents a year-on-year increase of 646,000 people or two percent. The number of people in full employment subject to social security contributions increased by 1.5 percent or 359,000 over the previous year with part-time employment subject to social security contributions going up by 3.1 percent or 287,000. Job numbers increased in almost all economic sectors year-on-year. The largest increase in employment in absolute terms was recorded in the metal, electrical and steel industry (up 90,100 jobs or 2.0 percent). The workforce also increased in skilled corporate services, going up 89,600 or 3.6 percent, in the construction sector by 68,900 (up 3.8 percent) and in nursing and social services by 61,100 (up 2.6 percent). Employment levels dropped substantially in temporary employment agency work (down 87,700 or 10.5 percent), and marginally in financial and insurance services (down 6,500 or 0.7 percent).

German labour market* 34

4 Unemployed persons (right axis)

33

3 32 31

2

30

Employed persons covered by social security (left axis) 1

29 28 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2 0 2019

Difference in the number of workers making social security contributions from the same month last year (right axis)

*seasonally adjusted in million Source: Federal Employment Agency

Other forms of employment mostly declined compared to one year previously. The number of selfemployed including contributing family members went down by 70,000 or 1.7 percent to 4.17 million in the first quarter of 2019. The number of people exclusively in marginal employment also dropped, going down by 109,000 or 2.3 percent to 4.55 million in March according to preliminary figures from the Federal Employment Agency. In May 2019, the number of unemployed individuals was 2.23 million.

This represents a decrease of 154,900 people without employment year-on-year. The unemployment rate as calculated by the Federal Employment Agency dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared to last year, down to 4.9 percent. This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 3.2 percent according to the ILO definition.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Industry Incoming orders for industry very sluggish at start of year In March 2019, incoming orders for German industry increased by 0.6 percent over the previous month after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment, following a drop of four percent in February. The positive result was due to the above-average level of large incoming orders received from the euro area. Without these, incoming orders would have been down by 1.9 percent. Overall, orders from abroad were up by 4.2 percent (euro area up 8.6 percent, countries outside the euro area up 1.4 percent). Domestic orders were down 4.2 percent on the previous month.

New orders, manufacturing 114

10

112

8

110

6

108

4

106 2 0.5

104

0 102 -1.3

100

-1.0

-2 -4

98

-4.1 -6

96 94

-8 2016

2017

2018

2019

Change over previous year, two-month-average, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office

With the data available for March, the first quarter results for 2019 are now complete and show a drop in incoming orders of 4.1 percent compared to the previous quarter. Domestic demand was down by 2.6 percent. Orders from abroad were down by 5.2 percent. Year-on-year, demand was down by as much as 5.9 percent, due above all to the weak level of foreign demand (down 7.5 percent). Domestic demand was 3.7 percent lower than the previous year.

Among the main groups of industrial goods, producers of intermediate goods recorded 3.1 percent less incoming orders than in the previous month. The drop year-on-year was even bigger at 6.6 percent. Domestic demand was down by 2.9 percent compared to the previous year, while foreign demand recorded a slightly more pronounced decrease of 3.2 percent.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Demand for capital goods in the first quarter 2019 was down by 5.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, following an increase in orders in the final quarter of 2018. Year-on-year, the result was also well into negative territory at minus 5.9 percent. Down 2.6 percent, orders from domestic companies did not decrease to the same extent as orders for capital goods from foreign companies, which dropped 6.8 percent. While domestic demand was only slightly lower than the previous year, orders from abroad were down a whopping 8.5 percent year-on-year.

Consumption goods producers received 0.2 percent more orders in the first quarter 2019 compared to the previous quarter, following a steep drop in the final quarter of 2018 however. While demand from within Germany dropped 0.5 percent, orders from abroad turned up, increasing by 0.7 percent. Yearon-year, orders were down by 3.2 percent, largely on account of the very weak demand from abroad.

Incoming orders for industry have been trending sideways since the middle of 2018. While a slight increase was recorded in the final quarter last year compared to the previous quarter, orders really took a slide at the turn of the year 2018/2019, going down steeply across all main industrial groups. It is surprising that this trend has not yet affected the order backlog. According to the ifo Institute, companies in the manufacturing sector had an order backlog of 3.3 production months, both at the start of the second quarter 2019 and at the start of the year. Producers of intermediate goods reported a minimal drop in their order backlog of 0.2 production months. The order backlog of capital goods producers remained unchanged while consumer goods producers recorded a slight rise. The data from the Federal Statistical Office on order backlogs show a similar picture. Overall, the order backlog in March 2019 across manufacturing was at the same level as last year at an average of 5.8 production months. In the middle of 2018, the order backlog had dropped to only 5.6 months. In these statistics too, only producers of intermediate goods showed a reduction in their order backlog.

Industrial production weighed down by one-time factors at start of year According to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical Office, output in the production sector increased by 0.5 percent in March 2019 compared to the previous month after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment, following an increase of 0.4 percent in February. The latest figures show a rise of 0.3 percent in energy production. Construction activity also increased. Industry increased production by 0.3 percent. Among the main industrial groups, producers of consumer goods increased their production by 1.1 percent. Production of intermediate goods grew by 0.4 percent, while capital goods production stagnated.

The March figures now available complete the results for the first quarter 2019. The production sector recorded a decrease of 0.5 percent over the fourth quarter 2018. That corresponds to a drop of 0.9 percent year-on-year.

While energy production increased over the previous quarter (up 1.1 percent), it dropped year-onyear (down 2.4 percent). On account of the mild weather conditions, construction activity was up nine percent on last year, with the primary construction industry even managing a twelve percent increase. Industrial production declined for the third quarter in a row, though this time only by 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, however, industrial production was down by as much as 2.2 percent. Among the main groups of industrial goods, the production of capital goods was 1.8 percent lower than the same period last year. Intermediate goods producers registered a decrease in production of two percent while consumer goods producers reported a more pronounced drop of 3.7 percent.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Production development in the manufacturing industry year on year change in percent 2017 2018 2018 2019 year Q3 Q4 Q1 original value calendar adjusted

compared to previous period in percent 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar seasonally and calendar adjusted

Production

2.7

0.9

-0.2

-2.0

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

0.5

-0.1

0.4

0.5

Industry

2.9

1.1

-0.3

-2.2

-2.2

-1.4

-1.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

0.3

Intermediate goods

3.5

0.6

-0.7

-2.6

-2.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.4

Capital goods

2.9

0.9

-1.6

-1.8

-1.8

-2.7

0.4

0.0

-1.1

0.9

0.0

Consumer goods

1.9

2.9

4.5

-2.1

-3.7

0.7

-6.0

-0.1

1.8

-1.5

1.1

Energy

-0.1

-1.5

0.9

-4.6

-2.4

1.5

-3.6

1.1

2.3

-3.7

0.3

Construction industry

2.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.1

9.0

0.4

0.7

3.9

0.3

4.0

1.0

Construction industry proper

5.2

7.7

5.3

7.2

12.0

0.5

0.1

4.0

-1.4

8.8

0.0

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations

Industrial production at the beginning of 2019 has kept up with the levels recorded in the fourth quarter 2018. As the fourth quarter 2018 was the weakest throughout that year, production levels will need to increase substantially in the further course of the year for a positive annual result. In view of the weak level of incoming orders, this kind of upturn is not yet on the horizon.

Production, manufacturing

110

8

108

6

106 4 104 2 102

0.3 0

100

-0.1 -1.4

98

-1.1

-2

96

-4 2016

2017

2018

2019

Change over previous year, two-month-comparison, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office

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Business sentiment has not been so weak since 2014 In May 2019, the ifo business climate index for Germany dropped to its lowest level since November 2014. Although business prospects for the next six months did not fall further, the current situation was rated 2.8 index points lower, its biggest drop since April 2013. Among the individual sectors, sentiment among service providers is considerably more downcast. The current business situation deteriorated substantially. The next six months were also viewed with less optimism. Business sentiment in wholesale and retail has also worsened.

Business expectations for the next six month

ifo Business-Cycle Clock German manufacturing* Boom

Upswing 25 Jan 2014

Jan 2011

Jan 2018

15 Jan 2017

Jan 2010 5

Jan 2016 Jan 2015

-5

May 2019

-15

-25

Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Downswing

Recession -30

-20

-10

* Balances seasonally adjusted

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Assesment of current business situation

Source: ifo Institut

The drop was caused by a downturn in wholesale. In contrast, retailers were considerably more satisfied with current business and also upwardly adjusted their prospects for the next six months. In the primary building industry, the business climate index recorded its third consecutive rise. Companies in the sector were considerably more optimistic about current business and also slightly raised their expectations for the months ahead. In May business sentiment in manufacturing was down for the ninth consecutive time, though only slightly. Companies in the sector are considerably less pleased with current business. Prospects for the next six months, however, took an unexpected and considerable turn for the better. Export prospects for industry clouded over slightly, as they had already in April.

Capacity utilisation dropping but still above average The weaker trend in production seen since the second half of 2018 has lowered capacity utilisation.

The capacity utilisation rate in manufacturing dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 85.4 percent at the beginning of the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. This was the fifth drop in a row.

Compared to the previous year, capacity utilisation is down by as much as 2.4 percentage points.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Production capacities are still utilised 1.9 percentage points more than the average over the last ten years. Excluding food and tobacco processing, industrial capacity utilisation was at 85.6 percent.

Outlook While fears of recession dominated the picture at the turn of the year 2018/2019, with many research institutes and international organisations such as the OECD and the European Commission downwardly revising their forecasts, the data on GDP published in May still came as a surprise. Despite rising risks, with the tariff disputes between the United States and China, the still disorderly Brexit and the termination of the nuclear accord with Iran by the United States, Germany increased its economic output in the first quarter 2019 by 0.4 percent over the previous quarter. Economic growth in the four other major EU member states was also surprisingly high. Economic output in the United Kingdom increased for the third quarter in a row, with economic growth outpacing that of Germany. Even Italy reported a growth of 0.2 percent for the first quarter 2019, possibly marking an end to the recession there. Economic sentiment in the euro area has also taken an unexpected and tangible turn for the better. The Economic Sentiment Indicator measured by the European Commission recorded its first increase in May following ten months of decline. Sentiment improved in industry and among service providers and consumers.

BDI forecast for 2018/19: Change in real economic output over the previous year in percent Actual figures 2018

BDI 2019

Federal Government 2019

European Commission 2019

GDP, real

1.4

1.0

0.5

0.5

Consumption

1.0

1.5

-

-

- Private Consumption

1.0

1.5

1.2

1.1

- Public Consumption

1.0

1.6

2.0

2.0

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.3

- Machinery and Equipment

4.2

2.5

2.0

2.1

- Construction

2.4

3.5

2.7

-

- Other

0.4

0.0

1.4

-

Exports

2.0

1.5

2.0

1.1

Imports

3.3

2.8

3.8

2.9

Net Exports, Economic Output

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

Investment

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Government (April 2019) European Commission (May 2019), own calculations

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

The uncertainties affecting foreign trade have not been banished but have also only materialised in part. We are therefore sticking to our forecast (Quarterly Report I / 2019) for foreign trade. In line with our spring forecast, we still expect the export of goods and services to increase by 1.5 percent in real terms. The same applies to our estimate for imports. While the flatter increase in exports will result in a lower level of imported intermediates, the demand for consumer and capital goods within Germany should remain stable, increasing imports by 2.8 percent. In sum, we expect net exports to bring down growth by 0.4 percentage points.

While the domestic economy is still on track for further growth, we believe that small corrections in our forecasts are now necessary. Although employment levels continue to rise, they are rising much slower than in the two previous years. In conjunction with the high wage increases agreed last year, this should lead to a stable increase in disposable income. However, private consumption expenditure in the first quarter was well below our estimates so that we now anticipate an increase of only 1.5 percent. While consumer sentiment as measured by the research institute GfK remains at a high level, it is slightly lower than this time last year. Above all, economic expectations of consumers have deteriorated as well as the willingness to make larger purchases. State consumption expenditure for the year is likely to be slightly low than expected so far, with an increase of 1.6 percent now on the cards.

Despite the increased global economic risks, corporate investment activity is still trending positively.

We expect investment patterns of companies to be less cyclical than in former years despite the unusually high capacity utilisation rates. Investments made now are likely to be based on longer term investment plans which are now being put into action. We therefore still expect investment in plant and equipment to increase by 2.5 percent over the previous year in real terms. In construction investment we need to upwardly revise our forecast somewhat. On account of the favourable weather conditions, building activity was much more buoyant than anticipated. As the need and demand for residential housing and public infrastructure remains high, we expect rebound effects in the further course of the year to be minimal. We now anticipate a 3.5 percent increase in construction investment.

Investment in other assets (software, research and development) actually dropped at the start of the year. We no longer expect to see growth here for the year overall. As these corrections cancel each other out we are still anticipating gross fixed capital formation to increase by 2.6 percent compared to the previous year.

All in all, GDP in 2019 should increase by one percent in real terms over the previous year. No calendar adjustment will be necessary this year.

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Sources BDI (2019). Quarterly Report Germany I / 2019. Economic Outlook for 2019: domestically strong but externally weak | German economic output to increase by only 1.2 percent. 20 March. Berlin.

Imprint Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V. (BDI) Breite Straße 29 10178 Berlin T: +49 30 2028-0 www.bdi.eu Author Thomas Hüne T: +49 30 2028-1592 t.huene@bdi.eu Editorial / Graphics Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch T: +49 30 2028-1591 k.deutsch@bdi.eu Marta Gancarek T: +49 30 2028-1588 m.gancarek@bdi.eu

This Quarterly Report Germany is a translation based on „Quartalsbericht II / 2019“ as of 6 June 2019.

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Back to growth without industry | Services make up for decreasing industrial value added 13/06/2019

Basic data for national accounts GDP (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) Change over previous period in percent 2018 2017

2019

2018

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

1.7

1.0

0.1

0.4

-0.2

0.5

0.8

- Private Consumption

1.8

1.0

0.2

0.3

-0.1

0.3

1.2

- Public Consumption

1.6

1.0

-0.3

0.7

-0.3

1.3

-0.3

2.9

2.6

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.8

1.1

- Machinery and Equipment

3.7

4.2

2.2

0.3

0.0

0.7

1.2

- Construction

2.9

2.4

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.9

- Other

1.3

0.4

-0.5

0.3

0.2

0.5

-1.1

Domestic Demand

2.0

1.9

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.0

0.2

Exports

4.6

2.0

-0.2

0.8

-0.9

0.6

1.0

Imports

4.8

3.3

-0.3

1.5

1.3

0.7

0.7

Total

2.2

1.4

0.4

0.5

-0.2

0.0

0.4

Consumption

Investment

Contribution to growth (in percentage points) Consumption

1.2

0.7

0.1

0.3

-0.1

0.4

0.6

- Private Consumption

0.9

0.5

0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.6

- Public Consumption

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.3

-0.1

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

- Machinery and Equipment

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

- Construction

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

- Other

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Change in stocks

0.1

0.6

0.1

0.3

0.8

-0.6

-0.6

Domestic Demand

1.9

1.8

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.0

0.2

Net exports

0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.2

-0,9

0.0

0.2

Investment

Source: Destatis

14