Cohen Homes & Estates | Luxury Property Report | Summer 2022

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HOMES & ESTATES

Luxury

Market Commentary by Barry Cohen

While luxury home sales are still outperforming the overall market, and year-to-date values are ahead of year ago levels for the same period, rising interest rates and economic concerns have taken some wind out of the sails of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market.

The softening in the market, characterized by an increase in inventory, a plateau in housing values, and less urgency overall, has given buyers the chance to catch their breath, while sellers are busy adjusting to new market realities. Luxury sales are still ahead of last year’s white hot high-end market, but the percentage increases year-over-year are shrinking, especially at higher price points.

To date, there have been almost 5,000 freehold and condominium sales over $2 million in the GTA, an increase of close to four per cent over the first seven months of 2021. The number of homes that have changed hands over the $3M, $5M, $7.5M and $10 million price points have fallen short of year-ago levels for the same period. However, these levels do not take into account in increase in off-market sales which are substantially up during these covid years.

sales in the Greater Toronto Area

Luxury home sales have outperformed the overall market to date, but rising interest rates will impact homebuying activity in the months ahead

BARRY COHEN, President/Broker Cohen Homes & Estates

Source: Torontomls.net, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Market Watch

Lack of inventory remains a challenge at the top end of the market, particularly in the central core, as buyers are more selective in their pursuit of ownership. To illustrate, a limited number of listings are available within the coveted $2 to $3 million sweet spot, with areas like Leaside reporting just two homes available for sale in that price range in early August. The same holds true for uber-luxe properties, with buyers finding just three properties to choose from over the $10 million price point in Forest Hill and none in Rosedale.

Homebuying patterns remain consistent with those experienced in recent years, with buyers looking to trade up to larger homes or more prestigious neighbourhoods. Many buyers are returning to the 416 area code, from their brief Covid exodus, although inventory levels remain limited in comparison with the 905. We are also seeing an increase of Asian buyers explore the market, while they are on vacation, and looking at moving their money out of China.

Steadily climbing interest rates, inflation, and geo-political concerns continue to impact consumer confidence. Fears of a recession and subsequent market downturn weight heavily, despite unemployment levels hovering at the lowest rate since the 1970s at 4.9 per cent. Mixed messages are creating confusion within markets, underscored by exceptionally volatile stock markets that continue to fluctuate with each federal announcement. The stability that has anchored our market for decades on end has been brought into question. Though I believe the fundamentals of a lack of developable land, listings, and dramatic population growth, remain unchanged and should continue to bode well for the entire market.

In terms of the luxury housing market, the trend we are seeing is a return to more normal market conditions. While the froth is off the top of the market – the underlying market remains relatively stable with buyers and sellers being somewhat undeterred as they are transacting in the same market. Conditions are expected to remain balanced for the foreseeable future. Though some neighbourhoods are shifting to a more buyer-friendly territory, there is still strong demand for the premier pockets of the city, but the market is starved for new product. I have noticed that many newly introduced homes have outperformed their “look-alike” home that was already on the market. I am also seeing a lot of sellers maintain their asking price from months ago, believing the market will shift back by late fall/ early winter. Time will tell if they will be correct.

At times like these, when market conditions are transitioning, the guidance of an experienced realtor can prove invaluable in the purchase or sale of a home. I am proud to say my team and I have successfully guided our clients through five different market corrections. So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling, or if you’re just interested in a more current market evaluation on your existing property, please do not hesitate to reach out. My team and I are always happy to offer our expertise.

Enjoy the rest of your summer,

COHEN

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True elegance & grandeur. 18,276 sq.ft. of living space plus a coach house. Bonus 3rd floor with two bedrooms and a den. The lower level has a staff quarters, kitchen, recreation room, spa & gym. Lush backyard with pool, cabana, terraces & tennis court.

ONE-OF-A-KIND

YORK MILLS ESTATE

Offered at $17,500,000

On 1.3+ acres of ravine vistas with approximately 16,000 sq.ft. of living space with luxurious finishes. Indoor NBA-like professional sports court. No expense spared throughout. Main level in-law suite. Dream backyard with pool, soccer field, bar & kitchen, fire pit & terrace.

UNRIVALLED OLD COLONY ESTATE

Offered at $19,800,000

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ARCHITECTURALLY SIGNIFICANT ESTATE IN LAWRENCE PARK

OFFERED AT $25,000,000

17,825 sq.ft. of luxury living. Designed and built by Richard Wengle Arch. and Nuvo Custom Homes. An entertainer’s dream rich in features with an unmatched lower level and garage.

SPECTACULAR FOREST HILL ESTATE

Offered at $15,100,000

9,000 sq.ft. of living space by Danieli on a 169 foot deep lot. Finest luxe appointments. Contemporary kitchen with servery. Sleek wine display. Sun-filled coppola with a fireplace. Elevator. Rare loft level. Lush backyard boasts pool with a waterfall wall.

DRAMATIC LIMESTONE ESTATE ON MAGNA GOLF COURSE | Offered at $12,800,000

Nestled at cul-de-sac’s end in most sought after exclusive gated community of Adena Meadows. Builder’s own on over 1 acre of pristine land backing onto a lush ravine with the premiere Magna Golf Course in the back drop. 20,323+ sq.ft. of luxury living space intended for entertaining on a grand level.

LUXURIOUS EQUESTRIAN ESTATE IN KING CITY | Offered at $20,000,000

76 secluded acres at cul-de-sac’s end with panoramic views. Contemporary designer residence with private suites and magnificent interiors. State-of-the-art stables and service buildings. Pond, trails, tennis & bocci court, indoor & outdoor pools, hot tub, cabana, sauna, wet bar & terrace.

The Greater Toronto Area’s Top Luxury Markets

Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, St. Andrews-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow (C12)

While demand for properties priced under $5 million in both the Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, St. AndrewWindfields-Hoggs Hollow area slowed in 2022, the number of sales over the $5 million price point experienced solid growth during the same time frame. Domestic buyers were largely behind the push for uber-luxe properties, with most opting for opulent homes situated on sprawling lot sizes in the prestigious Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills neighbourhood.

Collectively, the number of homes sold over $5 million year-to-date rose 10 per cent, climbing to 43 sales, in comparison with the 39 recorded in the first half of 2021. Greater selection, combined with larger homes and lot sizes, continue to play a role in the uptick in activity. There are seven homes currently listed for sale in St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow between the $2 and $3 million price point. Eleven properties are available for sale over $10 million, including a $27 million estate with almost 20,000 sq. ft. of living space in the Bridle Path, represented by our firm.

Average prices in the area continue to report strong gains year-over-year, with the price of luxury product up 21 per cent in the Bridle Path-Sunnybrook ($6,304,689) and 11 per cent in St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow ($4,065,072). Average listing days on market for single-detached homes remains relatively low for C12 (which is comprised of the Bridle Path-Sunnybrook and St. Andrew-Windfields-Hoggs Hollow), sitting at five in July.

SOLD | 56 Aldershot Crescent

Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills

Average Sold Price 2022 $6,304,689

Average Sold Price 2021 $5,230,209 21% Year-over-year

St.

Hollow

Average Sold Price 2022 $4,065,072

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,671,423 11% Year-over-year

Andrews-Windfields-Hoggs

CUSTOM WINDFIELDS RESIDENCE Offered at $6,380,000

GATED FIFESHIRE ESTATE Offered at $7,888,100

SOLD | 52 Beaverhall Drive SOLD | 78 Bannatyne drive SOLD | 16 Elkpath Avenue

10,000 SF HOGGS HOLLOW ESTATE BACKING ONTO THE RIVER Offered at $12,998,000

Forest Hill South, Humewood-Cedarvale (C03)

Homebuying activity in the Forest Hill South and HumewoodCedarvale communities continued to be fueled by young families between January and July, with strong demand overall reported in the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s C03 district. Inventory levels remained relatively low throughout the first seven months of 2022, contributing to a significant uptick in housing values year-over-year, especially in the more affordable HumewoodCedarvale neighbourhood where average price (for luxury product over $2 million) now sits at $2,938,381.

Many sales are now pushing into higher price points, with 31 properties changing hands over $3 million in Forest Hill (compared to 29 during the same period in 2021), including four over the $7.5 million price point. Seven sales were posted over $3 million in Humewood-Cedarvale between January and July, almost double the number of sales during the same period in 2021.

Just three homes were listed for sale between $2 and $3 million in the Humewood-Cedarvale area at press time, which should serve to keep prices stable for the foreseeable future. At the top end of the market, uber-luxe buyers have little to choose from, with just three homes available for sale over $10 million in Forest Hill South, including 157 Forest Hill Rd., listed for sale at $12,995,000.

Hill South

An across-the-board shortage of homes listed for sale at virtually every price point continues to hamper sales activity in the Rosedale, Moore Park area. To date, just 67 homes have sold over the $2 million price point, down 20 per cent from the 84 properties sold during the same period one year ago. Average price has remained stable, climbing one per cent over year-ago levels to $3,967,703 in the first seven months of 2022, compared to $3,947,554 during the same period in 2021.

Seven properties, including two semi-detached homes and two duplexes, are currently listed for sale between $2 and $3 million – and just two are available at the top end of the market, both with a price-tag hovering at $8 million.

Prospective buyers are biding their time, waiting for the right property to come on-stream, but inventory has failed to materialize thus far in most core areas, as sellers choose to hold on to their homes longer.

Rosedale, Moore Park

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,967,703

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,947,554

1% Year-over-year

Rosedale, Moore Park (C09)

SOLD | 247 Forest Hill Road Represented the buyer

SPADINA ESTATE Offered at $4,995,000

BUILDER’S OWN FOREST HILL CUSTOM Offered at $12,995,000

SOUTH ROSEDALE OPPORTUNITY Offered at $6,500,000

Yonge-St. Clair, Casa Loma, Annex (C02)

While Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) C02 district, comprised of Annex, Casa Loma, and Yonge-St. Clair, experienced a moderate decline in sales over $2 million to date collectively, the Annex managed to buck the trend with a two per cent uptick in sales over $2 million year-over-year. Sales at $3 million plus were particularly brisk in the Annex, with 28 properties sold between January and July, up from 17 during the same period in 2021.

Luxury housing values have climbed in all three neighbourhoods, with the greatest increase occurring in Casa Loma where prices are up 35 per cent over year-ago levels at $4,365,750 (over the $2 million price point). With three properties selling over $7.5 million, and just 20 sales overall in the first half of 2022, average price has likely skewed higher because of the increase in uber-luxe sales. Average price is up 12 per cent in the Annex year-to-date, rising to $3,466,232, while values have climbed four per cent to $3,349,260 in Yonge-St. Clair.

Strong demand, coupled with a low supply of properties listed for sale at luxury price points, created exceptional pressure on the market earlier in the year. While there has been a nominal influx of new homes listed for sale, most have been scooped up within a relatively short period of time. TRREB Market Watch reported average listing days on market for single-detached homes in C02 at 11 in July.

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,349,260

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,218,980 4% Year-over-year

SOLD | 222.5 Albany Avenue

3/4 ACRES IN CASA LOMA Offered at $25,000,000

10,500 SF BY R. WENGLE, J.DOUGLAS & JTF HOMES Offered at $13,990,000

Casa Loma

January 1st - July 31st, 2022 vs. same period in 2021

Average Sold Price 2022 $4,365,750

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,225,009

35% Year-over-year

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,466,232

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,093,729

12% Year-over-year

Consistent demand for properties within the Leaside area held relatively steady throughout the first seven months of 2022, with sales falling just short of strong 2021 levels. Sixty homes have changed hands to date, with many of those sales now edging into higher price points. Luxury sales are up 38 per cent over $3 million (29 versus 21) year-to-date, for example, while three homes moved over the $5 million price point, compared to two during the same period one year ago.

Prices have also climbed in tandem, increasing 10 per cent between January and July of 2022. Values have risen to $3,184,964 to date, up from $2,894,163 during the same period in 2021.

Homebuying activity is expected to remain strong throughout the remainder of the year as young families continue to seek out single-detached properties at somewhat affordable price points. There are two properties available for sale between $2 and $3 million in Leaside at present, which should help to keep prices fairly stable in the months ahead.

Leaside (C11) Leaside

Average Sold Price 2022

$3,184,964

Average Sold Price 2021 $2,894,163

10% Year-over-year

SOLD | 69 Donegall Drive

Bedford Park, Lawrence Park, Lytton Park, Forest Hill North (C04)

Despite some softening in the TRREB’s C04 district -- Bedford Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park North and South, and Forest Hill North --the area remains a popular destination for home buyers looking for a slightly smaller, more affordable product than the neighbourhoods further south. Days on market for detached listings in the area were at 15 in July, according to TRREB MarketWatch.

More than 100 freehold properties, including singledetached and semi-detached homes, were sold in the first seven months of 2022 in Bedford ParkNortown, while 55 moved in the Lawrence Park North area. Average prices were up over year-ago levels across the board in C04, hovering at close to $2.8 million in Lawrence Park North, just over $3 million in Forest Hill North, more than $3.2 million in Bedford Park, and almost $3.7 in Lawrence Park South.

Inventory remains tight in the area, with Forest Hill North and Lawrence Park South reporting a single-digit number of homes currently listed for sale between $2 and $3 million. Bedford Park-Nortown and Lawrence Park North offer the greatest selection of freehold properties at present, with 11 and 10 homes listed for sale, respectively.

Bedford Park-Nortown

January

Lawrence Park North

Park South

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,671,263

Average Sold Price 2021 $3,416,914 7% Year-over-year

Forest Hill North

Average Sold Price 2022 $3,004,752

Average Sold Price 2021 $2,959,501 2% Year-over-year

NEW LYTTON PARK CUSTOM Offered at $5,995,000

SOLD | 348 Briar Hill Avenue Offered at $4,498,000

SOLD | 69 Dunblaine Avenue

A TRUE MASTERPIECE ON SHERWOOD PARK RAVINE Offered at $9,980,000

STRIKING LYTTON PARK MASTERPIECE Offered at $7,990,000

Banbury-Don Mills (C13)

While strong demand for properties has outpaced supply in Banbury-Don Mills in recent years, more balanced market conditions have emerged between March and July with the upswing in the Bank of Canada overnight lending rate. Housing sales over the $2 million price point in the area, typically popular with young families looking for greater value, have declined approximately 30 per cent in the first seven months of the year, compared to the same period in 2021.

Average price has climbed four per cent year-overyear, based on 47 sales over $2 million between January and July, with values currently sitting at $3,295,695. Four sales occurred over the $5 million price point, likely contributing to the uptick in price.

Seven properties are available for sale between $2 to $3 million in Banbury-Don Mills at present. With buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude, it will likely take a slowdown in interest rate hikes for activity to regain momentum.

$3,153,841 4%

PALATIAL 10,000 SF STATE-OF-THE-ART LUXURY ESTATE Offered

$10,900,000

Condominium apartments and townhomes in the Greater Toronto Area continue to post solid gains after plummeting to their lowest sales levels in more than a decade in 2020. One hundred and sixty-two properties changed hands in the first seven months of 2022, falling just short of the 167 sales that occurred during the same period in 2021. During the same timeframe, robust activity propelled sales at the $3 million plus price point up 21 per cent to 57 units, up from 47 between January and July of 2021. Values are on par with year-ago levels, currently sitting at just under $3 million.

While inventory levels for condominium units and townhomes are ample over the $2 million price point in the Greater Toronto Area, tighter conditions can be found along the waterfront, with C08 (Waterfront Communities, Cabbagetown, Church-Yonge Corridor) at 19.

Empty nesters and retirees, as well as young professionals, continue to represent the lion’s share of condo purchasers. The trend is expected to continue in the coming years, especially as the downsizing trend continues throughout the GTA.

Luxury Condominiums (GTA) Luxury Condominiums

January 1st - July 31st, 2022 vs. same period in 2021

Average Sold Price 2022 $2,951,885

Average Sold Price 2021 $2,948,335 0% Year-over-year

ICONIC YORKVILLE SUITE Offered at $9,500,000

RARELY OFFERED PENTHOUSE Offered at $2,695,000

ELEGANCE & LUXURY IN THE EXCLUSIVE HAZELTON HOTEL Offered at $9,990,000

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