Pub Review: “World Needs to Halve Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2030," Scientists Warn

Publication Review

The World Needs to Halve Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions In the Next Eight Years, Esteemed Group of Scientists Warn — October 2021 The Heat is On: A World of Climate Promises Not Yet Delivered Emissions Gap Report 2021 Publisher: United Nations Environment Programme

By Frank Dexter Brown earthafrica news service The findings are clear, heated even, as the title The Heat is On suggests: “With climate change intensifying and scientists warning that humanity is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, 2021 has been a fraught year for the planet,” a renown global group of scientists report.

Contributors to The Heat is On: A World of Climate Promises Not Yet Delivered (Emissions Gap Report 2021) are explicit in making it obvious what the data show. They write: “National climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate.”

We have less than a decade to get things in order, they say.

The next eight years are the focus, the guide for the next eighty years and beyond.

“To keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius this century—the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement—the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years,” they warn. That is, if we are to slow the dramatic climatic changes already occurring globally that endanger the lives and cultures of billions of people.

Threats due to a range of extreme weather events such as intense rainfall, flooding, and wind-related storms; wildfires, drought and desertification; and the acceleration of melting glaciers resulting in the loss of ice, and rising sea levels.

UNEP scientists write of the Emissions Gap: “The difference from where we will likely be to where we need to be is now well-known as the emissions gap.”

Publication cover photo courtesy of UNEP.

The Heat is On (also referenced here as the Emissions Gap Report or EGR) is the 12th edition in the annual Emissions Gap Report series of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions—particularly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—are predicted to be in 2030 and where they need to be to avert the worst impacts of climate change (see chart and narrative, Figure ES.2/Figure 2.3, page 3 of this article). Emissions Gap Report 2021, released October 26, 2021, just as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 26 was gathering in Glasgow, Scotland, was produced by an international group, including 78 scientists from 44 institutions across 24 countries.

EarthAfrica media’s mission and reporting emphasizes that while the UN conventions and frameworks are significant for all nations, peoples, and cultures to embrace, they are particularly critical for poorer Global South states and communities of color in the Global North.

These nations and communities, which have the smallest CO2 footprints worldwide (the world's 20 richest countries are responsible for three-fourths of all worldwide emissions.), are inordinately impacted by weather extremes (including disproportionately living on the frontline of highly polluting life-threatening industrial production facilities), and the least protected and last targeted for mitigating adaptation and resiliency policies and financing. These scientific findings are crucial; wealthy (Northern) states are obligated to respond. And to preserve our cultures while addressing the climate crisis, we, of color, must be involved in the decision-making. Read on…

Global North Leaders: Lies, Distortions and Haunting Consequences of Not Responding to Warming Caused by Fossil Fuel Use The Emissions Gap annual report is described as an update assessment of the increasing difference as determined by scientists between “estimated future global greenhouse gas emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well-below 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing 1.5 degrees Celsius.”

Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On

1.

Following an unprecedented drop of 5.4 per cent in 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions are bouncing back to pre-COVID levels, and concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere continue to rise.

CO 2

▶ ▶

Despite the large decline in CO 2 the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere grew

(CO 2

to be smaller than the drop in fossil CO 2 emissions. cent reduction in CO 2 Solving the climate problem requires rapid and sustained reductions in emissions.

▶

Figure ES.1.

Global greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO e)

60

The points between the two rates of growth, they write, is “the difference from where we will likely be to where we need to be is now well-known as the emissions gap,” which the first Emissions Gap report research documented in 2019 as increasing more than 1.5 percent every year over the last decade.

50

40

30

20

10

20

F-gases

15

NO

20

20 10

CH

20

20 05

19 90

LULUCF CO

20 00

Fossil CO

19 95

19 80

19 85

19 75

19 70

0

2020 data only available for fossil and LULUCF CO

2.

New mitigation pledges for 2030 show some progress, but their aggregate effect on global

▶ NDCs submitted (from countries accounting for

▶

emissions, have communicated new or updated or updated NDCs communicated to the UNFCCC as well as announcements of new mitigation pledges

contain insufficient detail to assess their impact on emissions relative to the previous NDC (figure

the current NDCs are more transparent.

XVII

Above, an example of the figures, charts and tables that reflect the Emissions Gap data in powerful ways. Here, global greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, 1970–2020 are illustrated. Note the increase since 2015, the year when Paris Agreement goals were established.

(Figure ES.1/Figure 2.1). Courtesy of UNEP.

2

And because the gap is growing, the scientists reported average temperatures were on track to rise by 3.2 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels. “There is a fifty-fifty chance that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next two decades, and unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in GHG emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius [3.6 degrees Fahrenheit] by the end of the century will be beyond reach.” Emissions must be decreased sharply, at more than 7 percent annually to 2030; quickly we must quit burning fossil fuels, especially coal, end deforestation, and make the switch to renewables, among other actions.

The consequences of not doing so will indeed be disastrous as extreme weather catastrophes have escalated globally (see infographics chart, page 5): overwhelming heat can be linked to historic rainfall and wind events—hurricanes, tornadoes, typhoons, cyclones, monsoons—causing flash floods, mudslides and other weatherrelated disasters to inundate and pound neighborhoods and entire communities in regions globally; while severe dryness and wildfires have swept through regions as well; and this is simultaneous to historic deficits of rain, resulting in harsh droughts, failing agriculture, food shortages and famine across many regions; and ocean temperatures are increasing precipitously, with oceans growing more acidic, and coral reefs —“the Amazons of the sea”— bleaching/dying, as sea life is endangered, even becoming extinct.

Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On

Figure ES.2.

▶

New or updated NDC with lower 2030 emissions than prior NDC

New or updated NDC with equal or higher 2030 emissions than prior NDC

No new or updated NDC submitted

New or updated NDC not comparable to prior NDC

Of the countries that have submitted new or

terms of sector and gas coverage. The share of new

Throughout the World, the Heat is Indeed On

South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United 2

e compared

2

▶

The aggregate impact of the new or updated NDCs unconditional NDCs are estimated to lead to a total

e, bringing

As in year’s past, Emissions Gap Report 2021 serves as a powerful companion to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)—UN officials warned it was a “code red for humanity.” AR6 (the series features some of the world’s leading climate research) was released months earlier than The XVIII Emissions Gap report, and before the release of the Stockholm E nv i ro n m e n t I n s t i t u t e ’s ( S E I ) The pledges of governments to nationally determined contributions of Production Gap: 2021 Report (subtitled new or updated 2030 greenhouse gas emissions (as illustrated here) relative to previous nationally determined contributions is a significant Gover nments’ Planned Fossil Fuel aspect of the Paris Agreement, and what can better lead to a needed, Production Remains Dangerously Out of more equitable reduction in emissions. (Figure ES.2/Figure 2.3).

Sync with Paris Agreement Limits). These Courtesy of UNEP. t h re e t re n d s a n d d at a - d r i ve n publications are climate crisis must-reads.

2

2

equivalent (GtCO 2 e), compared

enhanced pledges that result in annual reductions 2

2 e resulting from other factors, including lower projections of international aviation and shipping emissions, and adjustments of countries that are projected to overachieve their NDC targets. If the announced

▶

communicated them to the UNFCCC.

▶

The largest reductions come from the United Argentina and Canada (submitted) and China and

Korea are also included, this aggregate reduction 2 e. The impact of

and Indonesia) have submitted NDC targets, which are assessed not to lead to additional reduction

Taking a closer look at the G20 members, the combined impact of submitted NDCs and

that improves upon its previous NDC, but still does

2

e compared with

In AR6, IPCC scientists warn more strongly than in its earlier assessment reports that immediate global action to alter highly polluting human behavior and activities is needed to mitigate what is increasingly becoming urgent for all species on Earth: “…Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850,” they warn.

3

Similarly, SEI’s Production Gap: 2021 Report “highlights the tension between the importance that governments have traditionally attached to fossil fuels and a harmful effect of fossil fuel production and trade: global warming,” and says that “government plans for fossil fuel production are still far more in line with worsening climate disasters than they are with internationally agreed temperature limits.” (see Figure ES.1/Figure 2.1, page 2) Most significantly, it must be noted that equally noteworthy and among the finest features of all three reports are the infographics and the computer modeling and projected scenarios based on the scientific data and trends. This includes the graphic charts, tables, figures, lists and photography that illustrate the scientific content. These brilliantly rendered design elements help to “visualize the data” in ways that make the science more accessible to broad audiences (see infographic samplings presented in each earthAfrica publication review). Then imagine if such content were to be distributed and posted throughout the world—in classrooms, libraries, meeting halls, houses of faith, science laboratories, governmental institutions, newsrooms—to serve as everyday reminders of what must be done collectively to protect the Earth. Imagine…

[Editor’s note: Along with this article, see “IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on the Climate Crisis Makes Urgent Plea to the World Through A ‘Code Red for Humanity’,” and “Government Plans For Fossil Fuel Production Are Still Far More In Line With Worsening Climate Disasters Than They Are With Internationally Agreed Temperature Limits, Production Gap: 2021 Report”—Baobab Publisher Publications issuu (click on baobab diaspora visions project/publisher publications-Issuu).]

Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On

▶

Acknowledging these caveats, a continuation of the new or updated unconditional NDCs and pledge announcements is estimated to limit warming to

announced pledges, further lower these temperature

a continuation of current policies, which are on a linear path towards reaching longer-term netzero targets. ▶

The full implementation of the net-zero pledges, in addition to new or updated unconditional NDCs and

Figure 5.4 Figure ES.7. and high-carbon initiatives (bottom) Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America & the Caribbean

Clean energy

Northern America

Oceania

(4.1%)

Clean R&D

(1.6%)

Clean transport

Lowcarbon measures

(3.3%)

Energy efficiency Natural infrastructure Armed forces

(2.2%) (3.8%) (0.8%)

Traditional transport

(9.2%)

Traditional energy

(1.6%)

0

50

100

150

200

Highcarbon measures

US$250 bn

Note:

8.

conditionalities attached to short-term business

rescue and recovery spending to stimulate the economy while fostering a low-carbon transformation has been missed in most countries so far. Poor and vulnerable countries are being left behind.

set out to accelerate the low-carbon transition

investment. Green reinforcement initiatives deliver long-term support to the projects and sectors

▶ ▶

The Heat is On (Emissions Gap Report 2021) was not only issued just as the UN COP26 was convening in Glasgow, but as what at the time were potentially monumental legislative proposals with environmental/sustainable development elements that were being debated in the U.S. Congress. It is a document, with the two companion research publications, that presents scientific and economic data that might have/should have been persuasive in the legislative push for greater use of renewable resources to combat the climate crisis and stimulate the economy. Indeed, the Emissions Gap Report builds on the evidence compiled by IPCC scientists in AR6. Of this moment in world history, EGR says: “COP26 is charged with the growing urgency of accelerating global ambition and action on both mitigation and adaptation.”

embed new economic trajectories into long-term has incentivized decarbonization through green

pandemic

m a n ag e m e nt ,

and

h e al t h - c a re

XXVI

The potential transformative nature of increased global recovery spending on renewable energy is noted. Here, post COVID-19 scenarios for global spending as at May 2021 across sectors by region (US$ billion). (Figure ES.7/Figure 5.4).

Courtesy of UNEP.

4

This period coincides, they write, “with an important milestone in the five-year ambition-raising cycle of the Paris Agreement, whereby countries were requested to submit new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that represent a progression compared with previous NDCs before COP26.

There is therefore a special focus both in the international discussions and in this year’s Emissions Gap Report on the ambition level in the new and updated NDCs.”

Net-zero, Carbon Neutrality and Climate Neutrality: Specification Needed for Policy Clarity Yes, throughout the world the heat is indeed on, and the Emissions Gap Report points out about this critical juncture in time, how so many political leaders and governments have forsaken their responsibilities. As the September 2021 version of the NDC Synthesis Report, published by the UNFCCC, illustrates (and as described in the EGR: “[T]he new and updated NDCs are Last Call for Climate Action insufficient to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This Emissions Gap Report confirms the findings of the UNFCCC report. It expands the analysis to consider new or updated NDCs and mitigation pledges that have been announced for 2030 and assesses the impacts of these on global emissions, the emissions gap and projected g l o b a l w a r m i n g at t h e e n d o f t h e century.” (see Figure ES.1/Figure 2.1, page 4) POLICYMA KE RS CA N HELP CLOSE THE GA P

Emissions Gap for 2030 70

GtCO2 e

New pledges lower global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 7.5% compared to prior pledges. To get on track to 2°C, a 30% reduction is needed, whereas a 55% reduction is needed to get on track to 1.5°C.

ario s scen 60 licie 0 po 201 o cenari ies s al NDCs olic 50 tion nt p Uncondi nal NDCs rre ditio Cu Con

11-13 GtCO2e

25-28 GtCO2e

ing 20 rsu pu nt

1

Paris Ag ree m e

Pa r

Emissions Gap

40

elow ell-b tw en em 30 re Ag

2°C

is

°C .5

Emissions reduction potential

12.5 Energy

for 2030

˜37 GtCO2e

6.7

Agriculture & waste

5.4

Industry

5.3

Forests & NBS

4.7 1.9

Transport Buildings

Why is 1.5°C important?

Hundreds of years from now

4°C

This deception of “insufficiently adjusted NDCs” is tackled when the EGR team reviews “net-zero pledges” and assesses “trends in and robustness of these goals, including whether 2030 commitments set countries on a clear path towards their longer-term net-zero pledges.” EGR “provides an in-depth assessment of the net-zero pledges that an increasing number of countries are committing to, including whether 2030 plans set countries on a clear path towards their longer-term net-zero pledges.”

3°C

Impacts for 2100

2°C

1.5°C

More frequent and extreme droughts

10 months average drought 97% more burned area in wildfires

4 months average drought 62% more burned area in wildfires

2 months average drought 41% more burned area in wildfires

I MPA CTS O N D RO UG H T A N D W I LD F I RE S

High levels of food insecurity, development path reversed

Local fish species go extinct

Agriculture yields fall rapidly

Wheat, rice, maize and soybean production suffers

I MPA CTS ON FOOD

470-760 million people at risk; sea level rise of nearly 9 meters

Near-complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet; sea level rise of 7+ meters

Fewer opportunities for infrastructure adaptation; sea level rise of 56cm

Rising sea levels displace 46 million people; sea level rise of 48cm

I MPA CTS O N C OA S TS

Half of all plant and animal species face local extinction

Marine ecosystems may collapse

Virtually all coral reef lost

Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent

I MPA CTS O N NA TU RE

High emissions scenario

Very high climate risk level

Moderate emissions scenario

Low emissions scenario

Possible adaptation to reduce risk

Possible adaptation to reduce risk

High climate risk level

Adaptation Gap

Possible adaptation to reduce risk

Moderate climate risk level

Undetectable climate risk level Sources: UNEP (2017, 2021) Emissions Gap Report, (2021) Adaptation Gap Report, SEI (2021) Production Gap Report, IPCC (2021) Sixth Assessment Report. © 2021 United Nations Environment Programme

UNEP inforgraphics are a powerful method for disseminating information. Here, UNEP designers illustrate the dangers of not reducing emissions by 2030. While this chart is not featured in the digital publication, it can be found online.

Posters, flyers, etc. of this chart should be distributed globally, immediately. Courtesy of UNEP.

The researchers continue: “Net-Zero emissions is a state where the sum of all anthropogenic emissions and removals is zero.

Net-zero emissions targets are being defined in a variety of ways—the most important aspect from a global geophysical perspective being whether they cover all GHGs or carbon dioxide (CO2) only. Net-zero GHG emissions are achieved when total aggregate GHG emissions are achieved when total aggregate GHG emissions over a given period are equal to an equivalent amount of aggregate GHG removal (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2021b) Net-Zero CO2 emissions are defined similarly but for (CO2) only.

“Other terms such as ‘carbon neutrality’ and ‘climate neutrality’ are often used interchangeably for net-zero (CO2) and net-zero GHG emissions, respectively. However, as their meaning can differ depending on context and language, furthering specification is needed to avoid ambiguity.”

5

So, in closing, let’s be clear: in language that minimizes and falsifies the climate crisis, global fossil-fuel production forces have continued to straight-jacket the world—obligating all on Earth to suffer more pervasive and disastrous weather events.

As such, earthAfrica media believes the Emissions Gap Report series can be a useful tool in the attempt o hold global leaders accountable. This is especially true for Global South nations, and people of color, in general, including those living in predominately communities of color in the Global North—since almost all are disproportionately affected by the expanding production and emissions gaps, and must mobilize to receive governmental, banking, nonprofit and/or global agency adaptation and resilience mitigation policy commitments and funding support.

Ultimately, as we are shown the catastrophic consequences of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius limits, while Global South nations, people of color, and in general, the world’s poorest citizens, who have been among the world’s least polluters—annually and historically—must be aware of how we disproportionately will be affected by the growing production and emissions gaps and will bear the brunt of weather-related repercussions. If we respond, this research is designed to help us avoid such dire consequences.

The Takeaway The Heat is On Major Conclusions • “To keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years.” (Emissions Gap Report, Chapter 1) • “There is a fifty-fifty chance that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next two decades, and unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in GHG emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century will be beyond reach.” (Chapter 1) • “[T]he new and updated NDCs are insufficient to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This Emissions Gap Report confirms the findings of the UNFCCC report. It expands the analysis to consider new or updated NDCs and mitigation pledges that have been announced for 2030 and assesses the impacts of these on global emissions, the emissions gap and projected global warming at the end of the century.” (Chapter 1) • [P]rogress towards achieving the Cancun Pledges (at the 2010 Cancun COP 16, nation’s agreed to: create a green climate fund, technology mechanisms, adaptation policies, forest management, and faststart financing prioritized for vulnerable developing nations) has not yet been assessed by the Emissions Gap Report due to uncertainty around 2020 emissions as a result of of the 2019 pandemic.

Assessments are expected with the 2022 report. (Chapter 2) • Collectively, G20 members are projected to fall short of their new or updated unconditional NDCs and other announced mitigation pledges to 2030. (Chapter 2) • For 1.5 degrees (CO2), emissions must reach net zero around 2050, with GHG emissions reaching net zero 15-20 years later. A delay of 15-20 years in either net-zero CO2 or net-zero GHGs implies limiting warming to 2 degrees C rather than 1.5 degrees C. (Chapter 3) • Mapping Opportunities for Change—Outlook: The report presents opportunities for how to reduce the emissions gap, including addressing methane, the second largest greenhouse gas emission, and gauging how to advance with article 6 of the Paris Agreement regarding cooperative approaches and market mechanisms. Many countries have included market mechanisms in their NDC implementation plans and are waiting for those mechanisms to be globally accepted/adopted. (Chapter 6)

6