Publication Review: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on the Climate Crisis Makes Urgent Plea

Publication Review IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on the Climate Crisis Makes Urgent Plea to the World Through A ‘Code Red for Humanity’

By Frank Dexter Brown earthAfrica news service

October 2021: Scientists have warned for decades about changing weather conditions leading to a climate crisis. Indeed, consider March 2013: Scientific research published in the journal Science disclosed that global temperatures were warmer than at any point in the last 4,000 years, and warned wide-ranging extreme weather emergencies related to a climate crisis and global warming could become normal. Less than 10 years later, extreme weather events are unquestionably more pervasive.

And while scientists historically have been cautious not to attribute the intensifying conditions to human behavior, their warnings are now more forceful and direct: Human activities are undoubtedly endangering all life on Earth.

Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis

With the August 2021 release of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), IPCC scientists warned more strongly than in its earlier assessment reports that immediate global action to alter highly polluting human behavior and activities is needed to mitigate what is increasingly becoming more urgent for all living species on the planet. UN officials said of the scientists, who represent nations worldwide, that they produced a report that serves as a “code red for humanity.”

In AR6, the scientists conclude that essentially the rise in global average temperatures since the industrial revolution of the 1800s is due to the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests. Such activities have resulted in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, forming a heat trap in the atmosphere. In fact, they report Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the WGI the planet has already witnessed an increase of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperatures of approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial age, due to human behavior and activities—mainly IPCC scientists write: “It is unequivocal that human influence has through the utilization of oil, gas, and coal for warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.” The cover art reflects varied energy purposes. “It is unequivocal that the AR6 emphasis on the interactive atlas that visualizes and simulates human influence has warmed the atmosphere, climate crisis dangers. Publication cover photo courtesy of the UN IPCC. ocean and land,” they write. “Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. …Observed increases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities. …Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850.”

The release and relevance of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is timely as global extreme weather trends continue at increasing rates, as potentially monumental legislative proposals with environmental/sustainable development elements are debated in the U.S. Congress, and as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 26 is preparing to open in Glasgow, Scotland.

And while the IPCC’s scientific summary is important for all nations to study and embrace, it is particularly noteworthy for Global South states, and communities of color in the Global North. These nations and communities, which generally have the smallest CO2 footprint worldwide, are inordinately impacted by weather extremes (including dangers arising from harsh weather events affecting those disproportionately living on the frontline of highly polluting health-threatening industrial production and waste disposal facilities). These people are normally the least protected and last targeted for mitigating adaptation and resiliency policies and financing. For them, these scientific findings are crucial, and wealthy states are obligated to respond. Read on…

Staying Below 1.5 Degrees Celsius of Warming:

A Key to Survival One of the IPCC’s most significant findings warns that even if nations immediately begin to sharply cut emissions, total global warming is still likely to rise to around 1.5 dominated by past and future CO emissions degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrialization levels. This fact is troubling as scientists have for more than a decade predicted (including in the Fifth Assessment Report) that at 1.5 degrees of warming, global dangers increase considerably. In AR6, they go even further than before by stating that within the next two decades a hotter future above 1.5 degrees Celsius is essentially guaranteed, and the consequences are almost assuredly guaranteed to be deadly as well.

For instance, the scientists project that within decades some 1 billion people may suffer through more frequent lifethreatening heat waves. Globally, hundreds of millions can be expected to face water shortages because of droughts.

Many regions will experience widespread flash flooding, oftentimes resulting in deadly landslides due to sudden torrential downpours. Coral reefs, which are called the “Amazon of the sea” because of how they sustain an abundance of sea life, will suffer coral bleaching, and die en masse. Similarly, worldwide, other ecosystems and habitats and their animal life and plant life can be expected to be devastated, and in many cases, made extinct.

Such heat-related events are already occurring, of course.

As earthAfrica news service reported in late-August/ Here, with this chart IPCC scientists pinpoint how future early-September 2021, it was the historically warm Gulf of emissions impact future warming, and show the prognosis Mexico waters that helped fuel the category 4 storm of continued increases over time in carbon emissions, Hurricane Ida as it slammed into Louisiana with sustained including rises in methane, nitrous, and sulfur dioxide winds of 150 miles an hour, knocking out power and emissions. Chart courtesy of the United Nations IPCC. dumping heavy rains on New Orleans, and long after landfall doing the same and even worse in multiple areas further north statewide, and then into mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states. Rivers, streams, and other waterways overflowed causing historic flooding in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, resulting in some cases, in drowning deaths, and hundreds of millions of dollars in homeowner, business and governmental infrastructure damages and losses. It marked another severely tragic 2021 global weather-related event.

Approved Version

Summary for Policymakers

IPCC AR6 WGI

geographical patterns of many variables can be identified at a given level of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of timing when the global warming level is reached. {1.6, Box 4.1, 4.3, 4.6, 7.5, 9.2, 9.6, Cross-Chapter Box 11.1, Cross-Section Box TS.1}

Carbon dioxide (GtCO /yr)

non

GHGs

Methane (MtCH /yr)

140

800

120

SSP3-7.0

600

SSP5-8.5

SSP5-8.5

400

200 0 2015

100

SSP3-7.0

80

SSP2-4.5 SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9

2050

2100

Nitrous oxide (MtN O/yr)

SSP3-7.0

20

60

SSP5-8.5 SSP2-4.5 SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9

10

0 2015

40

2050

2100

20

SSP2-4.5

Sulfur dioxide (MtSO /yr)

120

0

SSP1-2.6

80

SSP1-1.9

-20

2015

2050

SSP3-7.0

40

2100

0 2015

2050

2100

SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 SSP1-1.9 SSP1-2.6

emissions

ºC)

ºC

ºC

ºC

ºC

ºC

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

-1

-1

Total

CO Non-CO Aerosols GHGs land use

-1

Total

CO Non-CO Aerosols GHGs Land use

0

-1

Total

CO Non-CO Aerosols GHGs Land use

CO

-1

Total

CO Non-CO Aerosols GHGs Land use

Total

CO Non-CO Aerosols GHGs Land use

non-CO GHGs and cooling from changes in aerosols and land use

Total pages:

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The AR6 report is indeed timely as extreme weather catastrophes like those in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida have been increasingly common worldwide this year and reflect the conditions described in the report.

Elsewhere in the U.S., unprecedented downpours beyond the Ida devastation led to flash floods in North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and Alabama; historic flooding inundated Belgium, Germany and elsewhere in Europe; overwhelming rainfall and mudslides pounded Bangladesh, India and China, and elsewhere in Asia, and similarly in Central America; powerful typhoons hit the Philippines and other small island nations; severe drought and wildfires swept through California and other western states, Canada’s west and in parts of Europe such as Greece; and unusual deficits of rain, brought harsh droughts and food shortages across much of Africa.

Of such disasters the scientists write: “Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and in particular, their attribution to human influence has strengthened since AR5. …” [AR5 helped to set the tone and influence the 2015 Paris COP 21 negotiations].

The IPCC scientists emphasize the global increase in precipitation and heavy rainstorms has been particularly significant: “Globally averaged precipitation over land has likely [throughout this article, such italicized emphasis used within the quoted excerpts from the scientists’ writing are style choices directly from the report] increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s (medium confidence). It is likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed precipitation changes since the mid-20th century, and extremely likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed changes in near-surface ocean salinity.” The scientists add, “Mid-latitude storm tracks have likely shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends (medium confidence). For the Southern Hemisphere, human influence very likely contributed to the poleward shift of the closely related extratropical jet in austral summer.”

The evidence is clear: Heat waves have become significantly hotter since 1950 (with nine of the 10 hottest years on record occurring over the past decade) and last longer in much of the world. Wildfire weather has worsened across multiple regions.

Evidence of observed changes in weather extremes and resulting The frequency of extreme ocean heat has emergencies, in particular IPCC’s citing of human influence, has doubled since the 1980s. As a result of the strengthened since AR5, as have calls for continued adaptation to the warming, the scientists report that in recent climate crisis. Publication cover photo courtesy of the UN IPCC. years, researchers have also been able to draw clear links between global warming and specific severe weather events, and they reference how many of the deadly new temperature extremes the world has seen “would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. …”

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Hazards Surmount as Warning Escalates And as global temperatures keep rising, the report notes, so will the hazards. Consider that in the past, in most regions dangerous heat waves would have occurred just once every 50 years. That has greatly changed, and similar heat waves, in general, they write, can be expected every 10 years. At 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, those heat waves can be expected to be much hotter and intense, and occur more frequently, every 5 years or so. At 4 degrees of warming, such heat waves can be expected to occur almost every year.

Further, due to warming, including of the oceans, and the melting of the Artic, Greenland, and Antarctica ice sheets, IPCC scientists report that the most recent research and data show that ocean levels have risen 8 inches on average over the past century, and the rate of increase has doubled since 2006.

With every increment of global warming, changes get larger

a) Annual mean temperature change (°C) at 1 °C global warming

1 °C global warming

Simulated change at 1 °C global warming

Simulated change at 2 °C global warming

Simulated change at 4 °C global warming

is generally larger over land than over the Across most regions, observed and

b) Annual mean temperature change (°C) Simulated change at

global warming

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 Change (°C)

Warmer

And when sea level rise is fully taken into consideration, at 1.5 degrees of warming the scientists warn that by the end of the century, ocean levels can be expected to rise another 1 to 2 feet, resulting in coastal areas globally suffering constant flooding at rates higher than ever before.

Particularly troubling, they warn, if temperatures keep increasing, it is even possible that the steadily degrading ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland might continue to experience reductions in ice that by 2200 could result in sea-level rise by three feet.

Specifically, AR6 reports: “Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019 (about 40% in September and about 10% in March).”

Additionally, they write that there has been no significant trend in Antarctic sea ice area from 1979 to 2020 due to regionally opposing trends and large internal variability. And they cite that “human influence very likely contributed to the decrease in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover since 1950. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet over the past two decades.”

But, they note, “there is only limited evidence, with medium agreement, of human influence on the Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.”

Also significant are these additional findings: “In 2011–2020, annual average Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest level since at least 1850 (high confidence).

Late summer Arctic sea ice area was Measuring changes in global warming—observed and simulated— smaller than at any time in at least the past 1000 based on regional temperature, soil moisture and precipitation is a years (medium confidence).

The global nature of glacier significant dataset. Scenario mapping chart courtesy of the UN IPCC. retreat, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.” And they continue, “Additional warming is projected to further amplify permafrost thawing, and loss of seasonal snow cover, of land ice and of Arctic sea ice (high confidence).

The Arctic is likely to be practically sea ice free in September at least once before 2050 under the five illustrative scenarios considered in this report, with more frequent occurrences for higher warming levels. …”

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As noted, the summary makes these devastating trends clearer and more explicit than ever before. Some 195 governments accepted the findings, which are based on more than 14,000 studies—one of the IPCC’s most extensive reports on rapidly changing climate conditions. And while IPCC reports are normally appreciated and shared at COP and other environmental meetings, because of the sobering warnings, this year’s research can be expected to be even more frequently cited by the delegates and global climate crisis activists gathered inside and outside of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP 26 meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, from late-October through mid-November.

COP 26: Cries for ‘Action Now’; The Fate of the World Awaits As nations prepared for COP 26 following the cancellation of last year’s meeting because of the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic, the current policies of the major polluting countries remained far off-track from achieving their expressed targets and commitments made at the Paris COP 21 in 2015, as too many nations neglected to adhere to their promises, especially as related to equity due to Global South nations whose carbon footprint has been minimal historically. [Editor’s note: In particular, this includes the nations responsible for most of the greenhouse gas emissions—the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, Japan, and Canada; the U.S. is the largest emitter historically, and is responsible for the largest amount of CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere; China, as it became the leading manufacturer of the world’s consumer goods and industrial products, overtook the U.S. in 2006 as the world’s largest annual emitter. India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Iran, while only becoming large polluters over recent decades, also have large, struggling, lower-income populations. Still, all nations, no matter their circumstances, must commit to changing behavior and activities, NOW! This is the message we must take from the science.]

Simulated change at

global warming

-40

Simulated change at 2 °C global warming

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Simulated change at 4 °C global warming

40

Change (%)

Drier

Across warming levels, changes in soil moisture largely follow changes in

Simulated change at

global warming

-1.5

Shortsighted, inequitable, unsustainable failings by governments, corporations, and industries must end as the scientists warn: “Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.”

The scientists add that if efforts to keep levels at 1.5 degrees Celsius are unsuccessful, global average temperatures will continue rising—increasing possibly by 2 degrees, 3 degrees or even 4 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels. …[Editor’s note: As of 2021, it appears temperatures will indeed continue to rise because of the unwillingness of global governmental and business leaders to embrace the actions needed to immediately and rapidly reduce and end atmospheric-accumulating CO2 emissions.]

Simulated change at 2 °C global warming

-1.0 Drier

-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

Simulated change at 4 °C global warming

1.5

of interannual variability)

Emissions per region—observed and simulated—as tied to precipitation. Note: review the data re: monsoon regions and then consider the harsh impacts on and dangers for Global South nations. Scenario mapping chart courtesy of the UN IPCC.

The report describes how each of the dangers intensify with additional degrees of warming, such as ever more heat waves and worsening droughts; heavy precipitation and flash floods; increased ocean salinity and accelerating sea-level rise that could threaten the existence of some island nations. And they opine, even at 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, “There will be an increasing occurrence of some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record with additional global warming.”

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Most significantly, as referenced, AR6 leaves no doubt that humans overwhelmingly are responsible for global warming. Changes in climate to date, the scientists write, have little parallel in human history, and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, they say, have not been this high in at least 2 million years. Indeed, they warn, “The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years. …Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years (high confidence). Temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent multi-century warm period, around 6500 years ago. …”

Summary for Policymakers

(CID) is projected

Ocean salinity

Ocean acidity

Ocean acidity

(light shade)

NUMBER OF OPEN OCEAN

Hail

Mean wind speed

Landslide

Cold spell

NUMBER OF

(b) where each (dark shade) or medium

with high

COASTAL

or

Permafrost

(a) and to

IPCC AR6 WGI

Coastal erosion

Approved Version

Regions with high Regions with medium Regions with high Regions with medium

with 2°C global warming compared to a similar

SPM-

Total pages:

We Must Change Now and Build an Equitable, Just and More Sustainable World As concerned civic leaders and activists worldwide consider the fate of our planet and of all living species, especially the very vulnerable future of the Global South and the world’s poorest citizens, in general, particularly those of small island states, take note of these words of the IPCC scientists: “Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in the mid- to long-term at global scale, particularly over South and Southeast Asia, East Asia and West Africa apart from the far west Sahel (high confidence). …”

Finally, it’s important to keep in mind these additional words in the IPCC’s report findings and summary—a summary which, as mentioned, is called a “Code Red for Humanity”: “Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. …”

If we properly embrace the IPCC’s “cry out,” humanity can undoubtedly slow and lessen some impacts by preventing the planet from over-heating— and can do so sustainably, and in an equitable and just way. While the scientists don’t directly comment in this publication on specific policy prescriptions tied to the science, the messages from AR6s’ detailed, fact-based findings are evident: we must act now; immediately. The solutions include what global environmental activists demand—“leaving fossil fuels in the ground” or, as they also say, “leave the oil in the soil”—thereby restricting the amount of carbon accumulation that is endangering the planet.

Further, we must push, advocate, demand the leading emitting governments, corporations, and industries right now make available to Global South nations, and Global North communities of color (and all Earth’s poor), the financing, technology (and alternative “green” jobs) needed for emergency mitigation adaptation and resiliency efforts. Thus, the world would do what is necessary to better ensure warming is restricted to 1.5 Celsius, as the scientists say is required—thereby saving Earth, while simultaneously creating a new global green economy that prioritizes the needs of the world’s poorest citizens, particularly those of color.

Climate impacts (drivers) and weather changes—heat & cold, wet & dry, wind, snow & ice, open ocean, coastal areas, and other variables and elements—on ecosystems and “ways of life” in multiple regions can be better analyzed when accessing and viewing the IPCC’s interactive atlas as connected with the weather conditions and measurements visualized in charts such as this color-coded bar graph. Chart courtesy of the UN IPCC.

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Elements of the Sixth Assessment Report: The Methods for Sharing Facts, Data, and Geographical Mapping earthAfrica news service

October 2021: The following is excerpted from the publication’s introduction: AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, and supplemental material. The new report is part of the sixth major assessment of climate science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was created in 1988. A second report connected with the sixth assessment, is set to be released in 2022, and will detail how climate change might affect aspects of human society, such as coastal cities, farms or health care systems. A third report, also expected in 2022, will explore more fully strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt global warming.

“The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.” …

Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers

[Regarding the Full Report] “The thirteen chapters of the Working Group I provide an assessment of the current evidence on the physical science of climate change, knowledge evaluation gained from observations, re-analyses, paleoclimate archives and climate model simulations, as well as physical, chemical, and biological climate processes.” …

Working Group I contribution to the “The Summary for Policymakers Sixth Assessment Report of the WGI Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SPM) is the approved version from the 14th session of Working Group I [the primary group of scientists] and 54th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) provides a high-level summary of Change. ... The SPM provides a high-level the full report, which provides an understanding of the current state of the summary of the understanding of the climate. Publication cover photo courtesy of the UN IPCC. current state of the climate, including how it is changing and the role of human influence, and the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant to regions and sectors, and limiting human-induced climate change.” …

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Technical Summary The Technical Summary (TS) is “designed to bridge between the comprehensive assessment of the Working Group I Chapters and its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from the Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and atlas and provides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of evidence. …”

Sixth Assessment Report

8/10/21, 1:50 PM

Sixth Assessment Report

IPCC Home

AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

Past climate reports have focused mainly on large-scale global changes, which has made it difficult for countries and businesses to take specific steps to protect people and property. To help with such planning, the IPCC released an interactive atlas showing how different countries could be transformed as global temperatures rise. …

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations.

Interactive Atlas Disclaimer: The Summary for Policymakers The Interactive Atlas “allows for a flexible spatial and temporal (SPM) is the approved version from the 14th session of Working Group I and 54th Session of analysis of both data-driven climate change information and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment findings in the report. It includes two components: and remains subject to final copy-editing and layout.

The Regional Information component provides access to climate change The Technical Summary (TS), the full Report information (variables and Every tonne of CO emissions adds to global warming derived indices) from the main The introductory content, and the related publication datasets used in summary, fact sheets, interactive atlas, and SPM dat the report; the a access provide a comprehensive catalogue record.

Introduction page courtesy of the UN IPCC. Regional Synthesis component allows the exploration of key synthesized assessments building on multiple lines of evidence across the reference regions. …” https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

Approved Version

Summary for Policymakers

IPCC AR6 WGI

Global surface temperature increase since 1850-1900 ( C)

emissions (GtCO

C 3

SSP5-8.5

The near

2.5

SSP3-7.0

CO emissions and global warming scenarios

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SSP2-4.5

SSP1-2.6

SSP1-1.9

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Historical global warming

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emissions since 1850

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1000

2000

3000

4000

4500 GtCO

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SSP1-1.9 SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5

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PROJECTIONS

2040

2030

emissions between 1850 and 2019

2020 2019

2000

1950

1900

1850

HISTORICAL

CO across scenarios, and determine how much warming we will experience

Regional Fact Sheets

“Regional fact sheets are an outreach product fully traceable to the chapters, the report’s technical summary and the Interactive Atlas.

They constitute an entry point for regionalized information in the AR6 Working Group I report. …”

emissions between 2020 and 2050

Data Access Data for SPM figures is available from the following weblink: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/ ae4f1eb6fce24adcb92ddca1a7838a5c

SPM-

Total pages:

Tracking the increase of CO2 emissions and the growth of global warming and such documented proof as presented in this chart, is useful in understanding crisis conditions. Chart courtesy of the UN IPCC.

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Click on ‘Datasets’ under Related Records to view the catalogue records for each SPM figure and to access the corresponding data. The Abstract field of these catalogue records contains detailed information about the data, including how it should be cited. The data is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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