


I am pleased to present the IPS Rebates Cost Outlook with projections that will help you navigate your 2023 budget.
As you know, the global supply chain is still recovering from COVID-19 and many core items remain in short supply. This report identifies the Top 8 Supply Chain Challenges and explains the key inflation drivers for Food & Beverage. A high-level summary of expected inflation in key purchasing categories and suggestions to help mitigate price increases is included to help support your planning and bid process for the 22-23 school year.
Forecasting in such a dynamic environment continues to be challenging. As always, we are committed to keeping you informed and providing leading-edge solutions to help you successfully manage your school’s food operation.
We thank you, our valued members, for your feedback, flexibility, and trust in IPS Rebates as we navigate this unprecedented environment and continue to be faced with supply chain challenges.
Finally, I want to thank the IPS Rebates team for their expertise and dedication . Their passion for our members’ success is genuinely inspirational!
Best regards,
Suzanne Kirch Suzanne Kirch, Executive Vice President IPS RebatesQUESTIONS?
Please contact Customer Service at ips@ipsrebates.com or contact your sales account manager.
04 Executive Summary
Top 8 Supply Chain Challenges
High-Level Inflation Overview by Category
Commodity 101: Key Inflation Drivers for Food & Beverage (and Beyond)
10 United States
Economic Outlook
Commodities Short & Long-Term Outlook
17 Additional Resources & Sources
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Disclaimer: Predicting the future carries a certain amount of risk. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the information presented here is predictive and not intended to be taken as fact. This material is furnished for informational purposes only, is subject to change without notice, and should not be construed as a commitment by IPS Rebates or our suppliers. While IPS Rebates has made every effort to supply complete and accurate information, IPS Rebates assumes no responsibility or liability for errors or inaccuracies that may appear herein. IPS Rebates 2023
The following is a summary of the particularly impactful market forces affecting commodities, and updates to be aware of:
In the U.S. inflation continues to run at 40-year highs. We anticipate inflation will continue to run 5 to 10%+, which is more than double the historical average.
Energy prices have been volatile, with recent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices ranging from ~$95/barrel to ~$125/ barrel. The increase has been driven by lower supply and increasing demand, with the volatility being driven by concerns of a recession. North American energy prices are expected to remain high and volatile. To reduce costs, customers can enroll in demand response programs and revisit efficiency projects, as the payback may have changed. Also, managing energy supply contracts in advance of expiration can help to identify and take advantage of short-term price decreases in the market.
While spot outages will continue, product availability is more stable now than it has been for several months. This is the result of manufacturers rationalizing their product offerings and making progress in catching up with the high demand from the last several months. Continue to communicate your needs as often and as far in advance as possible with distributors.
Weather plays an important role in the price of agricultural products, which affects food and animal feed prices. The cool spring delayed the planting season, and now, many parts of the U.S. are experiencing a drought, which could unfavorably impact crop yields.
HIGH PRODUCT DEMAND
We continue to monitor the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. The impact to our business has been increased prices and volatility on key commodities, namely: oil, wheat, corn and cooking oil. We do not expect a short-supply situation in North America as a result of the conflict.
Many commodities experiencing price increases have higher-thanexpected demand including energy, seafood, beef, cooking oil, coffee and to-go packaging. Retail business has remained strong, and foodservice has been strong since last spring, creating challenges in building safety stock in many categories.
The labor market is still very tight, with unemployment remaining at historical lows. Manufacturers and distributors now have a more stable workforce. However, absenteeism and COVID-19 outbreaks can still cause disruption at plants, distribution centers, ports and to the transportation networks.
U.S. national average freight rates remain at historically elevated levels. Supply chain bottlenecks (backlogs at ports), high fuel costs and driver shortages are expected to continue to impact freight rates in 2023.
Lead times from overseas will remain long; plan for 20- to 28-week lead times on textiles and equipment, and even longer (40 weeks) for mowers and carts.
For budgeting and planning purposes, the following is a high-level summary of expected inflation in key purchasing categories and suggestions to help mitigate price increases. While these estimates are intended to provide budgeting guidance on broad categories, some specific items will experience higher or lower price changes than indicated below.
Food & Beverage
Expect mid to high single-digit inflation in the food and beverage category in 2023 as raw input costs remain high in most categories. The threat of a potential recession may put some downward pressure on prices toward the middle of 2023.
Expect continued disruptions across the industry and inflation of 5% to15% in 2023. Prices across the entire disposables category have increased due to labor shortages, continued high demand for F&B to-go packaging and freight challenges. These impacts have put price pressure on resins, paper, all fiber products and pulp.
Adjust menu items, downsize items/portions, be flexible with protein and produce choices, and/or adjust menu prices as needed to best manage food costs.
Communicate with distribution for available alternatives.
Expect inflation to continue in the 5% to 10% range. Persistent shortages of raw materials, freight, and components have resulted in significant cost increases for the capital equipment and smallwares industry. Supply chain disruptions are likely to continue in 2023. Due to these challenges, product lead times will continue to be impacted resulting in delivery times later than 20 weeks in some cases. Plan for additional increases of 3% to 5% in 2023.
Expect inflation to be in the 4% to 6% range (based on contractual safeguards).
Consider value engineering opportunities on large scale renovations. Plan project and replenishment purchases well in advance to avoid disruptions to your operations. Otherwise, consider postponing capital improvements until the market normalizes.
Adjust shipping modes (overnight to two-day saver) and institute controls on office supply orders.
Plan for inflation in the 6% to 12% increase range in 2023. Purchase private label products, if available, to offset the increase.
For more detail, please see the category-level forecasts by geography.
This overview presents a high-level view of the key commodities that have far-reaching impacts in the supply chain. In understanding their current and projected states, we can better predict how the food and beverage industry will be affected.
We are seeing very high prices in corn and soybeans, which are two key drivers in the food and beverage industry, affecting everything from proteins to dairy to eggs. Additionally, energy costs are having a significant impact throughout the industry, impacting productions and transportation costs. Our findings indicate that inflation may slow but will remain well above historical levels well in 2023.
Throughout North America, we expect to see continued inflation. While the United States is projected to see inflation rates of 5% to 10+%, in Mexico rates could rise to 8% or more.
Factors that will drive pricing in 2023 include ongoing international conflict, commodity prices, weather, biofuel production, worker wages, energy, policy and regulation and ongoing supply chain issues.
Rising costs of corn and soybeans will affect the following areas:
• Proteins (feed for beef, pork and poultry; soy-based meat alternatives)
•Dairy and eggs (feed for cattle and poultry)
•Edible oils (for nearly all food preparation)
•Delivery costs (fossil fuel costs are at all-time highs and mandates for biofuels drive the corn and soybean prices higher)
The impact of the corn market on the food and beverage industry can’t be understated. It impacts cooking oil, as well as feed prices for beef, dairy and poultry. Corn is mandated for use in biofuels, which creates additional demand for corn, driving prices up.
Poor weather conditions, particularly in Brazil, are driving up the global demand for U.S.-grown soybeans, leading to 10-year highs in price. Because soybeans are a primary feed for pork and poultry, those commodity areas are likely to be affected as well.
Global disruptions, including ongoing trade negotiations with China, the war in Ukraine and limited shipping out of the Black Sea region; high fuel prices; and a colder, wetter planting season are compounding inflationary pressures on the corn market. Biofuels made with corn are also growing in demand as traditional gasoline and diesel prices rise.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), corn inventories are low and the yield for future crops are still uncertain.
Soy-based products are becoming a staple in U.S. diets with 40% of consumers preferring plant-based foods that taste like traditional counterparts, like plantbased beef or milk. The overall increase in global demand for vegetable oil is another key driver of soybean prices.
A key ingredient for all food preparation is edible oils. Specifically, plantbased oils. The edible oils market trades as a category, driven by soy.
Weather and increasing demand for biofuels made from plantbased oils are putting pressure on this market and driving prices higher.
Due to unfavorable U.S. crop conditions for wheat (as reported by the USDA) and, in turn, increased wheat prices, expect an approximate 8% to 12% increase for bakery items in the short term.
Globally, oilseed production is projected to be up approximately 8% from 2021/22. Sunflower seed oil output is expected to decline due to the war in Ukraine, but overall global oilseed crush volume may see an increase of as much as 17.74 million tons. Specifically, global canola production is expected to experience significant recovery. However, with the entire edible oils market being directly linked to soybeans, which are at an all-time high, there won’t be relief in the edible oils market in the foreseeable future.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, along with poor spring planting weather in the U.S., has hard red winter wheat futures trading nearly 35% higher than last year. While the situation in Ukraine remains unstable, early predictions are that there might be more wheat exports than originally forecasted. Though, that will not be enough to offset a significant increase in pricing.
Based on increasing demand for U.S. exports of natural gas, prices through the summer for both natural gas and electricity are expected to rise by approximately 8%. The higher demand for energy in the long term will lead to additional production, but the higher production levels will not keep pace with demand, which will increase prices in North America by a forecasted ~27% for natural gas and ~14% for electricity.
The diesel fuel price for over-the-road delivery fleets has increased significantly in 2022, more than doubling since June 2021. Alternatives, like rail transportation, are effective for moving some products, but most food and beverage inventory is transported on diesel-fueled trucks.
Local delivery systems are affected by gasoline prices, which have seen an increase of nearly 50% since June 2021.
Finally, extreme weather conditions impact the energy markets as well. Major heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and other severe weather events add stress to an already-burdened industry. Parts of the U.S. West, South, and Midwest will likely be impacted by this extreme weather.
• The U.S. economy opened 2022 with a sharper than expected contraction as lower levels of investment outweighed strong household spending. Gross domestic product (GDP) for |the January-March quarter declined at an annualized rate of 1.6% according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% despite surging inflation levels.
• With inflation showing no signs of abating, the Federal Reserve responded aggressively in June by announcing its largest interest rate increase since 1994. In addition to raising the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, officials raised their year-end interest rate projection by 150 basis points to 3.4%. Growth projections were also cut sharply to below 2% for 2022 with further slowing expected in 2023 as federal policy aims to cut excess demand.
• U.S. consumer sentiment slid to an all-time low in June as current and future views on the economy and personal finances dropped sharply due to inflationary pressures. The University of Michigan reported that its sentiment index plunged to 50 from a revised reading of 58.4 in May. Nearly half of survey participants affirmed inflation had negatively impacted their lifestyles. One-year inflation expectations remained stable from a month earlier at a 40-year high.
• The manufacturing sector reported considerable slowing in activity during June. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped more than expected to 53 from a reading of 56.1 in May. New orders and employment indicators showed declines in activity. Price indicators tracking production inputs fell for a third consecutive month.
Tenderloin: 6%-9% ▲
Ribeye: 8%-11% ▲
Striploin: 1%-2% ▲
Ground/burgers: 2%-6% ▲
SHORT TERM: Prices will continue to increase due to the rising price of feed, freight and cost of skilled labor.
BEEF
Tenderloin: 2%-4% ▲
Ribeye: 2%-5% ▲
Strip loin: 2%-5% ▲
Ground/burgers: 3%-8% ▲
3%-6% ▼
POULTRY
LONG TERM: Prices will continue to increase as the weight of cattle decreases and demand remains high along with higher feed prices and rising labor costs due to lack of skilled cutters. No additional beef supply is expected to help drive down industry-wide prices.
SHORT TERM: Overall, chicken prices are expected to drop as decreased demand (due to high prices) starts impacting select chicken cuts. Expect continued supply interruptions and availability of boneless breasts and tenders as industry demand has focused primarily on the front half of the bird.
LONG TERM: After decreasing in the back half of 2022, we expect prices will start to increase again in 2023 due to misaligned demand and consumers’ focus on the front half of the bird. Supply interruptions and low availability are expected to continue with boneless breasts, tenders, diced cooked chicken and specialty-sized cuts (airline, leg quarters). Customers should be flexible with poultry menu options.
SHORT TERM: Pork prices are expected to increase as consistently high feed, freight, demand, and labor costs impact the pork industry.
LONG TERM: Pork prices are expected to be volatile with likely increases in the beginning of 2023. The pork industry also awaits a Supreme Court decision regarding Proposition 12 in California, which is creating uncertainty in the market. Expect future pork prices to differ from normal seasonal pattern, reflecting industry wide increases in feed, freight, and supply which impacts industry wide demand.
Short term refers to the expectation for the rest of 2022 relative to current prices. Long term refers to the expectation for calendar year 2023 relative to current prices.
SHORT TERM: 6%-8% ▼
▼
Pasteurized Crabmeat: Pricing is expected to come off of historic highs as inventory levels improve worldwide.
Shrimp: Pricing is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly as we approach the main production season. Farmed Atlantic Salmon: Expect favorable supply. Prices are expected to decline, and inventories are expected to improve as more fish are being harvested.
LONG TERM:
Pasteurized Crabmeat: As COVID-19 demand eases, inventories are strong. Expect producers to lower pricing to move product.
Shrimp: Expect favorable pricing and sufficient supply for all sizes.
Farmed Atlantic Salmon: Improved inventory levels are anticipated with a decrease in price over prior year levels.
3%-6% ▲
EGGS
SHORT TERM: Prices will continue to remain high – particularly for processed eggs – due to supply challenges, elevated corn and soy prices, and the residual impact as the industry recovers from the Avian Flu epidemic. Prices for cage-free eggs will remain at the higher end of the increase until supply is sufficient to fill demand (particularly as more states move to control how laying chickens are raised).
2%-3% ▼
3%-6% ▲
SHORT TERM: As dairy suppliers build inventories for anticipated holiday demand, and input costs remain high, prices are expected to continue to increase for butter, cheese, and fluid milk. The largest influence of unfavorable costs is the output of raw milk per cow which has experienced a steady decline in 2022.
LONG TERM: Corn and soy inventories are at all-time lows and will keep egg pricing elevated. We are, however, starting to see encouraging U.S. crop reports that are putting downward pressure on corn and soy, which will help lower egg pricing in 2023. Egg pricing will likely remain volatile due to corn and soy volatility, increased demand for cage-free eggs, the war in Ukraine and fears of a U.S. recession. For additional information about upcoming states that have legislation regarding cage-free eggs, follow this link. DAIRY
LONG TERM: Expected pressure of exports for all packaged dairy products – specifically cheese, butter, and non-fat dry milk powder – will drive lower inventories across the dairy category as we enter the first half of 2023. This will continue to put pressure on a category already dealing with elevated production and transportation costs.
Short term refers to the expectation for the rest of 2022 relative to current prices. Long term refers to the expectation for calendar year 2023 relative to current prices.
2% ▲
SHORT TERM: Through July, the market will be pricing in cold weather concerns in Brazil. Without a frost event in Brazil (which would impact the 2023/24 crop), fundamentals begin to be set up for an oversupplied market in 2023 and 2024 which should begin to put downward pressure on prices in Q4. A strong dollar and possible recession should eventually hurt commodity prices overall. Consider brewing a smaller batch to reduce waste (e.g., a half gallon instead of a gallon brew). 4%-6% ▼
LONG TERM: Barring a frost event in Brazil or a major upside demand surprise, coffee will move to a production surplus in 2023 and a more bearish scenario. The macro environment should dampen demand and put pressure on prices as we move through the first half of next year. More traditional metrics like U.S. Dollar strength and emerging market currencies will have a larger impact on coffee.
4%-7% ▲
SHORT TERM: Global soybean prices are still at historic highs, and inventory is at all-time lows, as such, the oil markets will remain inflated. The supply of global vegetable oil continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine, export regulations, and government policy that is driving increased biodiesel fuel demand.
2%-4% ▼
LONG TERM: We’re optimistic that soybean oil production will stabilize in 2023. Early indicators show the fall U.S. crop report is positive; however, the edible oils market will continue to be volatile. Factors contributing to the volatility include higher interest rates, intermittent support for biofuels and the Northern Hemisphere climate and crop conditions that will influence the ability to restore low corn and soy crop inventories. Macroeconomic influences may put downward pressure on commodity prices and vegetable oil demand.
5%-10% ▲
SHORT TERM: The large annual crops (apples, garlic, potatoes, and onions) are not on track for a good season. Apple crops are expected to be one of the lightest on record due to cold weather this spring. Potatoes are running several weeks behind schedule and onions are already projected to be at least 20% lighter than last season. Garlic is feeling pressure from labor shortages and increased demand.
5%-10% ▲
LONG TERM: The same inflationary pressures that other categories are feeling (labor, fuel, packaging) will continue to push produce pricing upwards. Other potential impacts remain the same as previous years, and severe weather events could cause the outlook to change drastically with little-to-no notice.
8%-12% ▲
SHORT TERM: Global supply concerns with the war in Ukraine, “Europe’s Bread Basket” region, are impacting global wheat markets. U.S. crop conditions were unfavorable for the winter wheat crop and harvest. U.S. spring wheat planting was delayed due to wet/cool conditions with 49% currently planted (versus 83% for the five-year average pace). Wheat commodities expected to remain volatile
LONG TERM: Currently, hard red winter wheat KC futures are averaging 35% higher than prior year. Domestic wheat crop conditions and delayed spring planting due to weather are expected to unfavorably impact future supply. Ukraine’s wheat export situation remains uncertain; however, global markets are anticipating more supply exported than initially expected.
5%-10% ▲
SHORT TERM: The largest drivers to any additional cost increases will be freight, the cost of labor and raw materials like pulp, towel tissue fiber products and resins. Paperboard continues to be at relatively high prices, increasing the cost to produce. 15%-20% ▲
LONG TERM: Unprecedented demand, ongoing labor shortages, and continued logistical challenges, both globally and domestically, have resulted in the industry experiencing supply disruptions across the entire category of products. The impact of high energy costs will continue in 2023.
SHORT TERM: While we have seen fill rates improve since the beginning of 2022, supply chain challenges will still permeate the marketplace in the short term. We have seen significant cost increases of up to 10% for smallware and tabletop manufacturers and 20% for some heavy equipment manufacturers in the first half of 2022. Inflationary pressures with fuel, labor and raw materials still drive these increases and will continue to impact this category. We are actively mitigating midyear price increases and we expect to see these requests begin to taper off as the year progresses. 8%-15% ▲
5%-10% ▲
LONG TERM: The market will see industry-wide price increases in the capital equipment and kitchen supplies categories continue in 2023. We believe these increases will be nominal in comparison to what we have experienced over the past 18 months contingent upon fuel and supply chain irregularities beginning to subside.
Short term refers to the expectation for the rest of 2022 relative to current prices. Long term refers to the expectation for calendar year 2023 relative to current prices.
8%-15% ▲
OS&E
6%-12% ▲
SHORT TERM: Currently, we are seeing between 10% and 40% increases on raw materials such as resin and other plastics. Freight continues to be an issue, particularly out of China with container costs still ranging from $15,000 to over $20,000. Fuel is also impacting the cost of freight, which is passed through to the customer via price increases. Port closures in China throughout 2022 continue to have an unfavorable impact on the supply chain.
LONG TERM: The market will remain volatile in 2023. The volume of containers available and the shortage of trucking in the U.S. are long-term issues that will take time to resolve. Pricing on raw materials will also remain volatile in 2023.
Linen & Terry: 3%-10% ▲
Uniforms: 2%-13% ▲
Linen & Terry: 3%-8% ▲
Uniforms: 2%-10% ▲
SHORT TERM: Cotlook “A” index is pricing was fluctuating between 1.59 and 1.69 per pound for May/June 2022. Cotton prices are expected to remain volatile in the coming months. The Northern Hemisphere growing season still has months that can make or break the size of the crop. The fourth-quarter cotton price is set to be lower than current levels but higher than last year during the same timeframe.
LONG TERM: Potential remains for cotton prices to make another run higher during the next couple of months and in 2023. The reason for the run-up is related to concerns about the West Texas cotton area and the current drought conditions. During the past several weeks, rain has fallen across the West Texas region, providing a break in the hot, dry weather. Once the fall harvest is complete, we will have more insight in 2023 cotton pricing.
Short term refers to the expectation for the rest of 2022 relative to current prices. Long term refers to the expectation for calendar year 2023 relative to current prices.
~8% ▲
Gas: ~27% ▲
Electricity: ~14% ▲
0%-2% ▲
6%-8% ▲
SHORT TERM: Based on growing demand for natural gas exports, North American natural gas prices and electricity prices are expected to increase by ~8%
LONG TERM: Energy usage is expected to increase, but higher production levels will not keep pace. North American natural gas prices should increase by ~27%, and electricity prices should increase by ~14%.
SHORT TERM: Upside risk of a short-term pricing adjustment depending on chemical commodities and fuel costs.
LONG TERM: Beginning in January 2023, customers will experience a 6% to 8% increase.
Short term refers to the expectation for the rest of 2022 relative to current prices. Long term refers to the expectation for calendar year 2023 relative to current prices.
The latest information on key topics impacting the supply chain including procurement best practices, food trends, and more.
An overview of affected categories along with actions and implications to help you prepare and adjust operations accordingly.
Resources and guidance including best practices, cost inflation outlook, and other information to help improve operations.
Sources for Commodity 101 and Economies include, but are not limited to: Chicago Board of Trade ; US Energy Information Administration https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=103900
https://doi.org/10.4060/cb1993en
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/u-s-regulator-sees-summer-natural-gas-demand-outpacing-supply-driving-prices-higher/
RTRS News Wires via Refinitiv Eikon
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ac2981ddd4994b5fb1fbe1a412c668fd
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/us-consumer-confidence-june-2020.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Commercial-Crude-Oil-Stocks-Hit-Record-High.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Production-Falls-To-Three-Decade-Low.html
https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/monterrey/2022/07/07/jesus-garza-el-super-dolar/
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/economia/Inflacion-en-Mexico-acelera-a-7.99-durante-junio-presionan-los-precios-de-alimentos-20220707-0018.html