Smaller Cities In A Shrinking World: Building a sustainable future against the odds
Alan Mallach
Source: IHME
DECLINE
Slowing growth, some decline by 2050
Decline or slow growth depending on level of immigration
The shape of the demographic future
Declining population
Continued growth beyond 2050
Eastern Europe
North America and Western Europe
Russia East Asia
Africa and Middle East Latin America and Caribbean
South and Southeast Asia
Australia and New Zealand
This is not just about the Global North
Fertility rates in the Global South 1960-2018
Fertility rates in large countries 1960-2021
The US is headed in the same direction
and we’re not happy about it
negative population growth by 2030-2035 (without immigration)
negative population growth by 2045-2050 (with 1 million/year net immigration)
US Population over 65 and under 5
Projected population change by age group in the United States 2022 to 2060 (000) +23 million people over 75 -9 million people 0 to 19
Migration is the wild card in future populations
City Suburbs
Small
Many parts of the United States are already losing population (Population change by county 2000 to 2016)
Internal migration
Parts of Florida are already losing population
County-level population change 2017-2022
Shrinking cities 2020-2023
The dominant internal migration trend is from periphery to center
Net migration by prefecture in Japan in 2016
Source: Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan; analysis by author
Climate change will affect everyone
Desertification
Effect on GDP
The global order is unraveling
The world is deglobalizing
Even before the pandemic, the pace of expansion in globalization was slowing. […] The collective impact of these trends is forcing a profound reflection on the way places and firms interact with globalization, and, in this shifting landscape, the types of levers available to attract flows of investment and people to achieve resilient territorial development.
OECD (2023)
Internal migration
Globalization, seen in recent decades as unstoppable a force as gravity, is clearly evolving in unpredictable ways. The move away from an integrated world economy is accelerating.
NEW YORK TIMES (2023)
Large City
Today, "slowbalization" appears to be moving towards deglobalization. Recent disruptions to global value chains […] have prompted governments and corporations to reconsider external dependencies. They are looking closer to home and to trusted partners for more resilient growth models.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (2023)
What does all this mean?
Slower population growth
Aging population
Reduced productivity
Reduced consumption
Climate change
Environmental crises
Geopolitical conflict
Economic instability
Reduced economic growth
Reduced capital investment
Resource hoarding
Increased geographic concentration
Increased inequality
Impact on cities
Smaller, peripheral cities and regions will be hit
MEGACITIES
Peoria, IL Small cities and the globalization trap
Peoria’s high-quality farmland is devoted to producing corn and soybeans for the global market
Virtually everything Peoria consumes is imported from the global market
Peoria’s urban economy depends on Caterpillar’s production for the global market
Peoria
More and more cities will become shrinking
Large
City
cities
Internal migration
Shrinkage is not just a number
Environmental effects
Economic effects
Demographic effects
Fiscal effects
Vacant land and buildings
Reduced retail and service activity Excess infrastructure
Loss of economic opportunities
Disinvestment
Deteriorating public realm
Declining property values Increased poverty
Increased elderly population
Declining child and working-age population
Housing supply/demand mismatch
Brain drain
Reduced tax revenues
Declining municipal services
Excess public facilities
Is this the inevitable endgame?
Escaping the trap
Local food system
Distributed manufacturing
SUSTAINABLE CITY
Distributed energy supply
Remote and Hybrid work options
Networked educational opportunities AgingFriendly City
Networked health care system
Arts Green city
Environmental framework
Tree farm in Detroit
Urban agriculture in Chicago
DIY Park and garden in Riga Latvia
CSO overflow Water Park in Goria Maggiore Italy
Economic framework
Localized renewable energy systems
Localized manufacturing systems
Remote work
Service framework
Age-friendly community
Remote and hybrid healthcare
Remote and hybrid learning
Civic and social framework
Vibrant public realm
Civic participation and inclusive governance
Strong neighborhoods
Can we get there? THE CHALLENGE
Dissatisfaction with existing conditions
Adaptive leadership BUILDING
Human capital
Strong institutions
SUSTAINABLE SHRINKING CITY/REGION
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