Afton Chemical presents eMobility: are you on the CASE?

SECTOR FOCUS:

AUTOMOTIVE PCMO

eMobility: are you on the CASE? Adam Banks, Driveline Marketing Manager, Afton Chemical

Your car wakes you on Friday to ask if you’d like a lift to your 9am meeting; after breakfast, it’s waiting outside.

As it expertly negotiates the route you catch up on email, barely noticing as it communicates with other vehicles and traffic systems to blend safety and speed.

Later, it pulls up outside your office as you leave, ready to run you home having already collected your weekly grocery order. You’ve planned a surfing weekend, so next morning a van with roofrack waits outside. You load your board, tell the van which friends to collect, and open your cooler. The weekend begins here.

Connected Connectedness is evident in the traffic alerts we receive from satnavs. Car parks that advertise empty spaces are only steps away from apps directing you straight to a vacant spot. Early examples of ‘platooning’ – fully connected and automated truck convoys – have been trialled in Europe by Scania, DAF and Mercedes. As connectivity encourages ever-smaller distances between platooning vehicles, cooling could become more challenging.

Futurelook Is this an accurate portrayal of 2040 mobility? Vehicle manufacturers acknowledge that the future could involve a quantum shift. Volkswagen claims to be ‘transforming from an automaker into a globally leading mobility provider,’ echoing Daimler’s view that ‘the next 10 years will be more exciting than the last century.’

Despite radical hardware developments at a rapid pace, the lubricants industry will not evaporate overnight. But what we sell, and how, is already evolving in response to eMobility – a global megatrend with a broad scope. It’s not just about electric cars. ‘CASE’ is a great reminder: Connected, Autonomous, Shared/Services and Electric. Each area will shape the lubricants market - and the first green shoots of the future are already visible.

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Autonomous The six levels of autonomy start with zero. Driver assistance is Level 1, seen in self-parking, lane assist and braking assist. Levels 2 and 3 (partial and conditional assistance) are offered by Tesla, for example, but still rely upon an alert driver ready and able to take back control. One driver overstepped the mark in 2018, setting his Tesla to Autopilot on a British motorway before climbing into the passenger seat, earning himself an 18-month driving ban.

Levels 4 and 5 (high and full automation) are the eventual aim, although safety concerns exist following accidents during real-world testing. Ultimately, autonomy could smooth driving cycles and ease demands on lubricants.

Shared Is car ownership still important? Sharing and ride services are growing, including the well-documented rise of Uber worldwide. London’s ‘Boris Bikes’ are echoed in the COUP and Lime eScooter sharing schemes of Paris.

Major automakers are putting weight behind sharing services. BMW’s DriveNow and Daimler’s car2go merged in 2018 to become SHARE NOW, offering car sharing, parking and charging in major European cities. Maximised vehicle use could mean longer driving hours, shortening fluid lifespans.

Electric Electric Vehicle (EV) production and sales are growing; Teslas and Nissan Leafs already abound. EV adoption has been stimulated by improved charging

Figure 1.

infrastructure and incentives, and Norway leads the charge. Norwegian plug-in EV sales hit 49.1% in 2018, outstripping second-placed Sweden’s 8.2%.

European EV sales lagged behind at 2.1%.

Social barriers to EVs are slowly being overcome, although battery and charging limitations remain.

Charging investment is pouring in from energy companies, forecourts and automakers.

Political barriers are harder to gauge; new power stations take decades to approve and build. Significant investment in smart grids to balance power storage and demand is also needed to support widespread EV use. Lubricants for EVs and associated support industries look set to grow.

Pollution pressure Energy for manufacturing and charging batteries must come from somewhere. In countries relying heavily on coal rather than renewable energy, the difference in lifetime CO2 production of EVs versus internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is not as big as one might assume.

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Whatever 2040 looks like, eMobility will naturally evolve fastest within large cities. Denser populations and expensive space give sharing services instant appeal; connected and autonomous driving offers efficiencies; anti-pollution measures are embraced.

Lubricant market opportunities Respected forecasts show lubricant usage growth beyond 2040, with eMobility impacting market size less than factors such as vehicle population growth, sump size and drain interval. 80% of the global car parc will still need traditional oil changes in 2040, but CASE will influence how and what we sell; shaping sales channels, partnerships and desirable lubricant properties.

Maintenance will likely be provided by fewer, larger companies, as responsibility for maintenance shifts from consumers to mobility service providers as a B2B sell. This could generate much larger, consolidated pieces of business for oil marketers to win. This may in turn prompt oil company consolidation, creating larger companies or encouraging those with truly distinctive propositions.

Consumer retail is likely to decline, leaving most vulnerable those companies currently relying heavily on B2C. Actual driving skills may one day become the province of retro enthusiasts. In this environment lubricants promising a better driving experience, or those promoted through motorsport, will find less relevance. Fluids providing lower cost of ownership and increased running time may find greater success.

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Unexpected alliances and partnerships could arise. Future mobility providers might be today’s automakers; hire companies; logistics experts; tech companies; or perhaps an as yet unknown organisation. As Qualcomm points out, ‘self-driving cars and smart traffic management in expanding cities will create new industries we haven’t yet imagined.’

Investing in the future eMobility 2040 is already being shaped by those investing in the right places. Sales, service models and energy sources will evolve – so too must lubricants.

Many of today’s hybrids and EVs use existing engine oils and transmission fluids, but the degree of electrification – how much power comes from the battery – will stretch fluid requirements. Dedicated electrified lubricants are already available.

Future duty cycles for connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles could be unrecognisable, with dramatic rises in operating hours, transformed driving styles and platooning.

Signs are everywhere that our opening short story is more science vision than science fiction. Afton is keeping one eye on the distant future as we work to create tomorrow’s fluids. How on the CASE are you?

LINK www.aftonchemical.com