Edmonton (Alta.) - 2001-2007 - Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005-2010 (2005-09)

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EDMONTON SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2005 - 2010

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee

September 2005

Copyright Š 2005 by the City of Edmonton c/o: 3rd Floor, City Hall Sir Winston ChurchillSquare Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in goodfaith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liabilityfrom any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK.........................20

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................1 1 2 IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK ............. 2 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ..........................................

SOCIAL OUTLOOK ................................................

B USINESS SECTOR................................................2 GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR ............ 2 FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS................................3

KEY SOCIAL ISSUES......................................20

Social Implications of DemographicChange..20 Diversity ......................................................... 21 Families..........................................................23 Health.............................................................24 Seniors............................................................26 Education ....................................................... 27

Poverty.............................................................

Child Care................................................

Culture.............................................................31 PART 1: ECONOM IC OUTLOOK ...................... 4 Recreation and Leisure ..................................

UN ITED STA TES ...............................................

4 Safety ..............................................................

CANADA ............................................................

4 APPENDIX II-- Edmonton Employment by Exchange RateExchngeRat......................APPENDIX ................................................... 5 Prime Lending Rate.................... ....................... 5 Industry .................................................................

R e ........................................... eng ENERGY MARKETS ......................................... 6 APPENDIX H - Edmonton Edmonton Gross Domestic A L B E R T A ...........................................................

7 ...................................

Industry by roduct Ew cohn. o. m .. i.. c...G ... r o.............................. .........8.AP EDMONTON................................................

E ND I X.II I.-.Em o nt o n.Ce ns u APPENDIX III - Edmonton Census Eco nomic Growth......................................

Demographics ................................................. 11.......

108 M ro ER AreaC3S A rEa................................................ p olitanOF ...................................................

Pr csn Ma. et.

LabourM arket............................................. 14 Prices.. ........................ ..

MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST Prices ............................................................... 14 14 INTRO DUCTIO N .................................................

4

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS ...................... 16 Upside Risks to the Outlook...........................16 Downside Risks to the Outlook....................... 16

29 300 32 33 36

37 39

COMMITTEE........................39

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

Economic Outlook

has also reported a decline in 2003 and 2004 net migration levels for the Edmonton region (approximately 4,000 people less per year). As a result of these changes, the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) population is now expected to increase by 58,000 over the next five years, reaching 1,066,000 by 2010. The city of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 35,000 reaching 748,000 by 2010. Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is now expected to average 7,000 per year between 2005 to 2010, approximately 2,000 less people per year than previously estimated.

Economic Growth

Housing Market

Edmonton's regional economic growth rate is expected to reach 3.5% in 2005, down from 4.3% in 2004, due to weaker employment growth and softer consumer spending, brought on by tight labour market conditions and surging energy prices that will contribute to higher home heating costs and rising gasoline prices. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, •which slammed into the southeast United States

Despite increased supply brought on by strong construction activity over the past few years, housing starts in the city of Edmonton are now expected to reach 9,100 units in 2005, up 11.5% from 2004, and up nearly 1,900 units from previous estimates for 2005, due to strong year-to-date activity. Housing starts in the city are expected to fall to 6,000 units in 2006 and average 5,500 units

during the late summer months, will also add further

between 2007 and 2010 as the market adjusts to

upward pressure to gasoline prices, as key oil and natural gas refineries were damaged during the storm. Economic growth will average a healthy 2.8% per year between 2006 and 2010 as continued strength in energy and infrastructure investment will be slightly offset by tight labour markets, softening residential construction and softer consumer spending. There are approximately $111 billion of construction projects in Alberta that have either been announced, proposed or are already under construction, of which $14 billion are within the Edmonton region alone.

increased supply brought on by strong construction activity and higher interest rates.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is prepared primarily for use as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's corporate and departmental business plans and budgets, the City's Capital Priorities Plan, and the City's Long Range Financial Plan.

The most significant influence on the region's economic prosperity is its wealth of natural resources (oil, gas and the oil sands). The contribution of the energy industry to the Edmonton region is even more significant if oil prices continue to rise in response to any sign of shortage of energy supply to meet world demand as evidenced recently.

Demographics The results of the 2005 City of Edmonton civic census show that the City of Edmonton's population as of April 1, 2005 is 712,391 — only 4,060 less people than previously estimated. Statistics Canada

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Labour Market Lower net migration and strong employment growth over the past few years have led to a tight labour market in Edmonton, making it hard for employers to fill vacant positions. As such, employment growth is expected to remain flat in 2005, before increasing by 1.3%, or 6,500 positions in 2006. Employment growth will average 6,500 positions per year between 2007 and 2010.

Prices It is anticipated that the Edmonton CMA inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, will average 2.4% in 2005 and 2.5% in 2006 due to rebounding utility prices brought on by continued strength in energy prices, and also due to higher wage settlements, which will translate into higher wage costs for businesses and higher prices for consumers. Higher interest rates will lower the inflation rate slightly to 2.3% in 2007 and average 2% per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 Social Outlook The anticipated increase in Edmonton's population in the forecast period will be centred on the mature and elderly segments of the population, with the number of people over the age of 40 expected to increase by 44,000 compared with an increase of only 14,000 for those below 40. This increase in the aging population could increase the demand for services such as health care, appropriate fitness programs and seniors' housing.

At the other end of the population spectrum, the number of persons in the 10-14 and 15-19 age group categories will fall by 8% (5,200) and 2.3% (1,600) respectively. This decline in the number of youths may begin to have implications for schools, including post-secondary education institutions, and other youth focussed services.

Some of the pressures associated with an aging population in Edmonton will be alleviated by the continued employment growth, which should translate into continued strength in household incomes. The Edmonton CMA recorded a median household income of $67,325 in 2002 — the fourth highest among Canadian CMAs. Increased household income is expected to reduce the number of people living below the poverty line and should help to limit the impacts of a broad range of social issues.

The positive economic outlook for Edmonton should also help attract migrants from other countries which

IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK Business Sector Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: • slightly higher population growth, • continued spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta, • a large supply of relatively low-cost downtown office space, • moderate inflation, and • a strong housing market.

However, during the same period Edmonton businesses must adjust to: • shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations, • increased house prices and rental rates, • increased security and insurance costs as a result of increased concerns over terrorist activities, and • higher energy costs.

Government and the Public Sector Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: • continued strong economic growth in the province, • increased assessment base, • increased spending on education and health care

by the provincial government,

will help contribute to Edmonton's diverse social fabric.

•

infrastructure grant from the Alberta government

and gasoline tax rebates from the federal government.

However, over the same period Edmonton's government and public sector must deal with: • continued municipal infrastructure shortfalls, even after receiving the infrastructure grant and the gasoline tax rebate; • increased demand for municipal services as a result of growth pressures, e.g. roadways, transit, parkland, etc.; • continued demand for government services in the areas of health, education and infrastructure

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 as a result of the aging population and positive net migration; the possibility of the number of potential retirees exceeding the number of first-time labour market entrants; a shortage of affordable housing, and homelessness.

Families and Individuals Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * increased government spending on health and education, and * increased employment and income opportunities as well as higher after-tax incomes despite tempering by high energy prices.

However, Edmontonians must also deal with: * increased property crime rates, and * a continuing wide gap between the haves and have-nots in our society.

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Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 of 2005 compared over the same time frame in 2004.

INTRODUCTION This report provides an economic and social analysis of the current and future changes in the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA - see map in Appendix III) for the years 2005 to 2010. The outlook is used as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's 20062008 corporate and departmental business plans, 2006 departmental operating budgets, the 2006-10 Capital Priorities Plan, and the 2006-2015 Long Range Financial Plan. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses use the forecast for planning purposes.

However, higher energy prices, brought on by rising global oil demand, geo-political instability, and the damage inflicted on key oil and natural gas refineries in the southeast United States by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, will weaken consumer spending and keep the U.S. dollar under pressure during the second half of 2005. Continued concerns over the United States ballooning trade imbalance and rising budget deficit, will also contribute to weaker economic conditions.

As such, it is expected that the United States economy will soften to 3.2% growth in 2006, and average 3% for the remainder of the forecast period, as energy prices soften, and interest rates remain stabilize. .

The City Forecast Committee monitors economic

United States Economic Growth Forecast

and social activities/trends throughout the year. The Committee prepares an outlook report semiannually, in the spring and in the fall.

Change in RealGDP) (Percent

UNITED STATES

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2006

2007

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2010

The United States economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2005, down from 4.4% in 2004, as high energy prices and higher interest rates soften consumer spending. The disruption caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita will also weigh on growth. The economy is expected to soften further to 3.2% in 2006 and average 3% for the remainder

The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in both 2005 and 2006, down from 2.9% in 2004 as continued strength of the Canadian dollar

of the forecastperiod

begins to weigh on non-energy related exports

A 3.4% increase in consumer spending and a 9.5% increase in business investment helped propel the United States economy to a 3.3% annualized economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2005, down slightly from the 3.8% gain in the first quarter.

In response to this strength in economic conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Board in the United States has raised its target for the federal funds borrowing rate five times so far this year for a total increase of 1.25%. Employment growth in the United States has also fared well, with total non-farm payroll employment increasing 2.3% for the first 7 months

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CANADA

during the second half of the year, while high gasoline prices, due to the damage caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, soften consumer spending. Growth will average 2.9% per year for the remainder of the forecast period as exports slowly begin to improve and consumer spending stabilizes.

The Canadian economy grew by an annualized 3.2% during the second quarter of 2005, up from 2.1% in the first quarter, as higher net exports and residential investment more than offset slower growth in consumer spending and business investment. The strength in net exports was unexpected, considering

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Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

the strength in the Canadian dollar, which has averaged $0.81 US for the first 8 months of 2005, up 8% over the same time period in 2004. However, employment in Canada's manufacturing sector fell by 105,900 positions between January and July, showing that the Canadian economy is still vulnerable to the strong Canadian dollar. Higher energy prices, particularly the rising cost of gasoline, began to have an impact on the Canadian economy during the second quarter as consumer spending was revised down from 3.3% to 3%.

It is expected that the Canadian economy will grow by 2.7% this year, down from 2.9% in 2004, as the Canadian dollar weighs on non-energy related exports during the second half of the year, while high gasoline prices and higher home heating costs, due in part to the damage caused by hurricanes and Rita in the Gulf of Mexico, will soften *Katrina consumer spending. Growth will average another 2.7% in 2006 as continued strength in the Canadian dollar hampers exports, while rising interest rates 9 and energy prices weigh on consumer spending.

half of 2005, but higher energy prices, and concerns over the U.S. current account deficit, have kept the U.S. dollar under pressure for most of 2005, which has resulted in continued strength of the Canadian dollar. On a year-to-date basis, the Canadian dollar has averaged $0.81 US. It is expected that the dollar will remain around the $0.80 US to $0.85 US range for the remainder of 2005 and for most of 2006 before settling into an average of around $0.78 US for the remainder of the forecast period, as energy prices begin to soften and the United States economy stabilizes.

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related exports. Growth will average 2.9% per year

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spending and world economic growth stabilizes. _,-.... ,, , .; ,,, <Caniada Economic Growth Forecast

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Keeping growth buoyant will be strength in energy for the remainder of the forecast period as consumer *

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Prime Lending Rate

Prime Lending Rate

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......chn........7The prime lending rate, which is determined by the 1 .

Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate, decreased from an annual average of 4.7% in 2003 to 4% in .9 2,9 . .

2,7 2 2004 as the Bank of Canada attempted to curb the rising Canadian dollar, and improve export 25 performance. Prime lending rates increased by onequarter of a percentage point (25 basis points) in * early September 2005 to 4.5% after remaining constant at 4.25% since October 2004, as the Bank 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 of Canada raised its overnight lending rate in response to a stronger-than-expected second quarter economic growth and international exports. The Bank of Canada has also been hinting at further rate increases for the remainder of this year and in 2006 Exchange Rate 9as it attempts to increase interest rates to more The dramatic appreciation of the Canadian dollar neutral levels, a move that is currently being through 2003 spilled into 2004, rising as high as undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board in the $0.85 US in November as rising energy prices United States. throughout 2004 softened United States employment growth, sending the United States dollar lower. The However, continued strength in the Canadian dollar United States economy has stabilized for the first may soften non-energy related exports during the

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

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latter half of 2005 and into 2006, while rising gasoline and natural gas prices, due in part to the damage caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, may soften consumer spending, which may prohibit the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates aggressively. As such, it is expected that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points to 4.75% before the year end, bringing the 2005 annual average to 4.4%. Interest rates will increase by a further 25 basis points in 2006, bringing the annual average to 5%, with continued strength in the Canadian dollar and weaker consumer spending prohibiting any further rate increases.

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While the International Energy Agency's temporary release of emergency reserves combined with OPEC's recent agreement to increase output if required, and a slowdown in the pace of global demand growth in the face of sharply rising prices have returned world oil prices to their pre-Katrina levels, the absence of spare global refining capacity and the possibility of continued weather-related supply disruptions are expected to keep prices near their current levels over the short run. Thus, the forecast calls for the price for WTI to average $58.10 US in 2005 and $64.20 US in 2006. When

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of the already overstretched United States refining capacity. Currently, 100% of Gulf offshore crude oil production - equalling roughly 25% of total American and 1% of total world output - remains shut-in, while up to 8% of the American refining capacity is expected to remain out-of-service for several months.

2010

compared to our March forecast, this represents an increase of $12.40 and $19.90 per barrel for 2005 and 2006, respectively. Over the longer term, a gradual easing of tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of expanded production in that region should remove some of the risk premium currently embedded in prices, allowing the price for WTI to

fall back to around $51 US per barrel. However, this is still $15 US per barrel above the outlook contained in our March forecast. As such, the current forecast reflects the growing expectation that the days of cheap oil may be behind us.

ENERGY MARKETS Increasedglobal demand and tensions in the Middle East will keep the averageprice per barrel of oil at $57.90 US for 2005 and $63.80 US in

World Oil Prices (uSsbb)

2006. Naturalgas is expected to average $7.85 per

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GJ in 2005 and $8.85 per GJ in 2006.

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Even before hurricane Katrina swept through the Gulf of Mexico, concern over the recent surge in world oil demand and lack of flexibility in shortterm supplies had pushed world oil prices up sharply, with the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaging $64.79 US per barrel in August 2005 - an increase of almost $17 per barrel over the February price reported in our March forecast. The passage of hurricanes Katrina and Rita made a bad situation worse by disrupting offshore production situation worse by disrupting offshore production facilities, a major import terminal, crude and product pipelines and, most importantly, a substantial share

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The outlook for North American natural gas markets hsbcm tanda el rvnb rlne has become strained as well. Driven by a prolonged heat wave in eastern markets and the resulting

September by: City 2005 Forecast Committee,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

increased demand for gas-fired power generation to air-conditioning needs, plus growing concern about the market's ability to simultaneously increase natural gas storage levels in advance of the coming heating season, North American gas prices jumped sharply to around $10 per GJ in mid-August rivalling the record prices seen in the winter months of 2001 and 2003. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted the already tight market, severely curtailing Gulf coast production levels, while damaging major pipelines and gas processing facilities. At present, around 80% of Gulf offshore gas production - representing around 15% of total production in the southern United States - is shut-in.

Although the disruption to American natural gas production is somewhat less substantial than that for oil, the capacity to make up this shortfall from international sources is far more restricted. In addition, the prospect of sustained high oil prices over the foreseeable future and the resulting lack of fuel-switching opportunities have heightened concerns over the absence of a significant new

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ALBERTA Due to high energy prices, growth in the Alberta economy is expected to reach 3.7% in 2005, and average 2.9% for the rest of the forecastperiod.

The Alberta economy grew by 2.7% in 2003 as the

source of North American gas over the medium

SARS outbreak and the BSE-related beef export ban

Consequently, the forecast calls for a term. substantial increase in the outlook for natural gas prices, with the AECO price averaging $7.95 per GJ in 2005 and $9.05 in 2006. This represents increases of $1.40 and $2.55 per GJ for 2005 and 2006, respectively, relative to our March forecast. Over the longer term, the expansion of North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity, allowing for the importation of larger volumes of natural gas, plus the development of such non-conventional gas resources as Alberta's coal bed methane, should ease the pressure on gas prices, allowing the AECO price to ease back to around $7 per GJ towards the end of the forecast.

weighed on the economy, which otherwise experienced strong consumer spending and a robust housing market brought on by strength in the energy sector. Growth rebounded in 2004 to around 3.7% as high energy prices, low interest rates and continued strength in energy and infrastructure investments fuelled strong employment growth and consumer spending.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

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Alberta Natural Gas Prices

So far in 2005, Alberta has continued its strong economic performance, with retail sales growing by 11.7% on a year-to-date basis in June, and exports growing by 8.7% on a year-to-date basis in July.

Employment has also been robust with a 1.7% yearto-date increase in August. High energy prices have also kept the energy sector strong with a 6.8% yearto-date increase in the number of rigs drilling in also have shipments Manufacturing July. strengthened increasing 14% on a year-to-date basis in June. Oil sands investment, which continues to be the cornerstone to Alberta's recent economic expansion, is expected to reach $6 billion in 2005, up from $5.7 billion in 2004. It is also expected that approximately $45 billion in oil sands projects will be completed by 2010. According to Alberta Economic Development, the inventory of total major projects in Alberta that has been planned or Page

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

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currently under way is at $111 billion, with $70 billion belonging to the oil sands industry alone,

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As such, it is expected that the Alberta economy will grow by 3.7% in 2005, before softening to 3.5% in 2006 and 3.2% in 2007, as strong investment and robust export performance will be undermined by tight labour market conditions. Also contributing to

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volume of conventional oil and natural gas exports out of Alberta, as the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board expects conventional energy supplies to fall by an estimated 2% per year in the forecast period.

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Despite strong investment and robust consumer spending in Alberta, tight labour markets brought on by a reduction in total net migration into the province over the past couple of years, along with a structurally fully employed labour market, will make it difficult for employers to fill any vacant positions, particularly in markets requiring skilled labour.

Total net migration in Alberta has fallen from 40,000 in 2001-02 to 24,000 in 2003-04, due primarily to a growing economy in British Columbia, which has 626 capital projects worth $78 billion that have been planned or are already underway so far this year, as preparations for the

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2010 Winter Olympics get underway. With the

economy in British Columbia expected to continue doing well over the next few years, it will be more difficult for Alberta to attract additional labour from British Columbia, which could add to Alberta's

growing tight labour market problem.

Tight labour market conditions, along with increased commodity prices during 2004, have also increased construction costs throughout Alberta and may make some projects uneconomical. Skyrocketing energy prices may benefit both the energy sector and the provincial government treasury, but they will contribute to higher home heating costs and have contributed to rising gasoline prices, which will be further exacerbated by the damage done by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the American southeast.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

The Edmonton regional economy is estimated to have grown at 4.3% in 2004. It is expected to expand by 3.5% in 2005 and 2.8% in 2006 and average 2.9% over the 2007-2010 period.

Strength

in consumer spending and strong construction activity, brought on by economic spinoffs from investment in northern Alberta, gave Edmonton an estimated economic growth rate of 4.3% in 2004.

As with the case for the rest of Alberta, tight labour markets brought on by lower net migration levels and a fully employed labour force, are expected to have a dampening effect on employment growth in Edmonton in 2005 as employers find it difficult to fill job vacancies, particularly in areas requiring skilled labour. In addition to weak employment growth, skyrocketing energy prices will contribute to

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 higher gasoline prices and home heating costs, which will dampen consumer spending and increase production costs during the second half of 2005.

These higher energy prices, coupled with higher international commodity prices and tight labour market conditions, have also increased construction costs. As a result, Edmonton's economic growth rate is expected to reach 3.5% in 2005, lower than the previous estimate of 4%. What will keep growth above 3% will be a stronger than expected residential construction market combined with continued strength in energy related and infrastructure investment.

Growth is expected to moderate to 2.8% in 2006 on the heels of softer residential construction, higher interest rates and higher consumer prices, which will dampen consumer spending further. A new round of energy and infrastructure related investments in and around the Edmonton region will keep growth buoyant. Growth is expected to average a healthy 2.9% for the remainder of the forecast period on the

The following projects will have a significant impact on the Edmonton economy over the next five years: Commercial/Retail/Residential Continued expansion of the $250 million *Continued South Edmonton Common retail complex by Cameron Corp. and Grosvenor International. *

$95 million for the Citadel Village seniors health care complex in St. Albert.

*

$600 million for the Heritage Mall redevelopment to the 'Century Park' mixed use development.

*

$135 million for the Centre in the Park retail/commercial development in Strathcona County by various developers.

Infrastructure * $493 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension in southeast Edmonton by Alberta Transportation.

heels of continued investment in mega-projects in

northern Alberta and the Edmonton region. '

Edmonton Economic Growth ~ inRealGDP).

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$600 million to extend the LRT to Heritage Mall .Institutional

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$450 million for the Health Ambulatory Learning Centre.

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$142 million for the Mazankowski Heart Institute by Capital Health.

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$110 million for the North Treatment Centre at the Royal Alexandra Hospital by Capital Health.

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The Major Projects List, published by Alberta Economic Development shows that all proposed, announced, recently completed and under construction projects in Alberta total a record $111 billion, with the Fort McMurray (Wood BuffaloCold Lake) area holding the largest proportion with 60%, or $66 billion, followed by the Edmonton region with 13%, or $14 billion and Calgary with 11%, or $12.5 billion.

$85 million for hospital and clinic support

building in Strathcona County. * $70 million for a learning centre by NorQuest College.

Oil, Gas and Oil Sands * *

$2.7 billion for the Scotford Upgrader expansion by Shell. $1.2 billion for conversion to upgrade bitumen by Petro-Canada Oil.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

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$200 million for a crude oil storage terminal in Strathcona County by Terasen Pipelines Inc. $160 million for a hydrogen plant for PetroCanada's refinery feed conversion project

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The other component of population change, natural increase, is expected to decline as the number of deaths increase and births decline as the population ages.

Demographics

The city of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA

The results of the 2005 City of. Edmonton civic census show that the City of Edmonton's population as of April 1, 2005 is 712,391 - a 7% increase from the last official population figure of 666,104 collected 2001 federal in thecensus and only 0.5% collected in the 2001 federal census and only 0.5% lower than previous estimates of 716,415 for 2005.

Edmonton's to changes significant Other demographic profile include a reduction of the level of Edmonton CMA net migration, which, according to Statistics Canada, reached 5,200 in 2003 and 5,400 in 2004, lower than previous estimates of 9,500 in each of 2003 and 2004.

to age. The 2001 Census of continues population Canada indicates that the median age for the City of Canada indicates that the median age for the City of Edmonton's population increased from 33.8 in 1996 to 35.3 in 2001. The median age for the Edmonton CMA is the second youngest (after Calgary) of the cutystnlretubnaes h ubro country's ten largest urban areas. The number of people aged under 40 in the Edmonton CMA is

Edmonton's new population count in 2005, along

with lower net migration levels, will have an impact

on both the Edmonton CMA and Edmonton city population forecasts. The Edmonton CMA population is now expected to reach 1,008,000 in 2005, lower than previous estimates of 1,014,000, and is expected to increase by 58,000 reaching 1,066,000 by 2010. The city of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 36,000 reaching 748,000 by 2010. Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is now expected to average 7,000 per year between 2005 to 2010 - approximately per year between 2005 to 2010 - approximately 2,000 less people per year - due to increased economic activity in British Columbia as they prepare for the 2010 Olympics, which will keep people from moving into Alberta.

expected to increase by 14,000 over the forecast period compared with an increase of 44,000 for aged 40 and over. The largest increase by people 2010 is for people in the 50s age group (just over 2010 is for people in the s age group ust over 22,000 for the CMA).

Our aging population has a direct impact on the size of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and

0

0

0

of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and

the labour force, which is comprised of people either working or looking for work. As the working age ages,it.more people will leave the labour population force than enter force than enter it.

The population of the city of Edmonton and the and thprofiles, Edmontonilar The population of thave citbroadly siof wiEdmontonh the CMA havinge broadlyslightlymilar ge pr ofiles, wt eC 2 a iy ag are people aged under 20 and the city having larger share of young adults and people aged 60 and over.

This

changing

age

structure

has

important

_

0

implications for various sectors of the economy

Prepared September by: 2005 Forecast Committee,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

0

Page 10

0ty

Page 10

0

S *

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

the growth in the number of people in the age group between 25 and 34 will increase demand for apartments and first-time home buyer; the large increase in the 50s and 60s age group will support demand for more expensive housing and 'empty nester' or retirement housing, and the high growth in the number of people aged 65 and over will increase demand for social and care services.

*

0 *

* *health

that the total value of building permits will decline to $1.3 billion in 2006 and $900 million in 2007, as the housing market makes adjustments to increased supply brought on by strong construction activity over the past few years and to higher interest rates.

Building permits will average a respectable $700 million per year between 2007 and 2010 on the heels of continued strength in the energy sector -- -- Building Permit Forecast

Edmonton

(C.M.A.) Populati on

Change-by-Age Forec-- (20W-201)

2.00

(Thousands)

1 80

30.0

1.60 1.01300

25.0

22 7

o12

20.0

1.00 10.0

-5.0

30

7.4

10

0.6

0.0

;0.20 00

0 .00 2005

-5.0 0 -9

0900

10 19 20 29 30 39 40 -49 50 -59 60 69 70 -79

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

80+~'

Housing Starts

_

Building Permits

*

0

Housing Market

0*

It is expected that the value of building permits will reach $1.8 billion in 2005, $900 million in 2006, and million for the remaindaverage average approximately approximately $850 $850 milon for the r

0

Due to low interest rates and a strong economy, the value of building permits in the city of Edmonton _ reached $1.4 billion in 2004, a 29% increase from 2003, led by a 20% increase in residential permits 0and a 43% increase in non-residential permits.

increased supply of new residential units 0Despite 0 over the past few years and a drop in the level of net 0 migration into the Edmonton region, total city of Edmonton building permits have continued their * torrid pace, increasing 46% for the first 8 months of 0 this year (47% increase for residential and 44% * increase for non-residential), and are expected to reach $1.8 billion for 2005 - $600 million higher * than previous estimates of $1.2 billion. It is expected

*

Housing starts in the city are expected to reach 9,100 units in 2005 before falling to 6,000 units in 2006, and average a respectable 5,500 units per year for the remainder of the forecast period. ro n rate ote e Cot Continued low mortgage rates and strong employment growth kept the housing market strong in the city of Edmonton in 2004 with 8,159 total housing starts. Even though this represents a 9% drop from total levels in 2003, 2004 was one of the strongest in history. Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA followed suit with 11,488 starts - a 7.2% decline from 2003 but still the seventh highest total since 1970. Despite the drop in total housing starts, single-unit starts increased in both Edmonton and the region in 2004.

Strength was also evident in Edmonton's resale home market, as over 70 records were broken in 2004, including total sales in a given year (20,110 units worth $3.7 billion), according to the Edmonton Real Estate Board. As such, average home selling prices reached $202,711 by 2004 year-end, up 5.9% from the 2003 year-end value of $191,336.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee,September 2005

Page 11

repared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 11

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

The strength in Edmonton's housing market in 2004 has spilled over into 2005, as the average home selling price in the resale market increased 7.7% to $193,215 in August on a year-over-year basis. The sales-to-active-listings ratio has also strengthened to 47.1% in August 2005, up from 32.2% in August 2004, as sales increased 26.1%, while the number of active listings fell by 14%.

The new home market has also experienced robust growth so far in 2005. Total city of Edmonton, housing starts increased by 27% for the first 7 months of this year compared over the same time period in 2004. Single unit starts have risen 32% while multiple unit starts increased by 22%.

However, inventory levels have also increased dramatically. According to the Monthly Residential Construction Digest released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the inventory of completed and unoccupied single family housing units for the city of Edmonton in July 2005 were up 3% from July 2004 and 22% from July 2003. The inventory of completed and unoccupied multiple family housing units were up 87% from July 2004 and 65% from July 2003, led primarily by a 435% year-over-year increase in the level of condominium units. Completed and unoccupied rental units, on the other hand, have fallen by 37% between January and July of this year, and are down 15% from July 2003. .

.in

Completed and Unoccupied News Single Family Housing Units

Coipted

*

dUccupied New Mtiple Family

'.Housing Unitis Edmonton City 02002

020 02004 82005

1oo 9 7 600 500

400 JahFeb

1Apr Ma.r

MayV

Ju' un

Jul.

Sour- C,nodaMortgage and Ho-sng CorporMioon

---As such, it is expected that total city of Edmonton housing starts will reach 9,100 units in 2005, an increase of 11.5% from 2004, and 1,900 units higher than the previous estimate of 7,200 for 2005, due to strong year-to-date construction activity. Housing starts will fall to 6,000 units in 2006 as the market adjusts to increased supply levels brought on by strong construction activity over the past couple of years. Rising interest rates, along with the rising cost of building materials, such as cement and lumber, will also help contribute to the overall decline in starts. Total housing starts are expected to average a respectable 5,500 units per year between 2007 and 2010 as a strong energy sector keeps residential construction buoyant. Total housing starts for the Edmonton CMA will follow a similar path to those the City, reaching 12,500 units in 2005 before

0

falling to 8,500 units in 2006.

Edmonton City 0 2002 0 2003

500

02004

E2005

Apr

May

450

400 350

3000 250

150.

100 -

Jan,

Feb

Mar

Jun

Jul

Corporetion Mortgage and Housing Source: Caonada

0 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 12

*1I

,'

N

has falle'bby 37% between January and July of this year, and is down 15% from July 2003. Apartment vacancy rates are expected to moderate further to

,

Edmonton Housing Starts Forecast

0Edmonton n(dTtous.nds)

(C.IA.) and Edmonton (City)

4.8% in 2006 and to 4.3% in 2007, before settling in

.

13.0 .15

3.5% by 2010, as the market makes further

,Nat

2. 0

adjustments to reduce inventory levels, and higher

10.0

p

98.0

anticipated interest rates and home heating costs keep renters away from home ownership.

9

8.

According to the most recent issue of the Market

50

2005 ,

2o06 S200

2009 20o0B 20o07 20 2008 2007

2010~ 201 %

S.in * Rental Market *

S

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

The apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton reached 5.3% by the end of 2004 and is expected to decrease slightly to 5% by the end of this year and 4.8% by the end of 2006. The downtown office vacancy rate

View Update from CB Richard Ellis, office vacancy

rates in Edmonton's downtown region fell to 8.2% the second quarter of 2005, down from 8.6% in the first quarter, due primarily to a drop in the financial sector vacancy rate. It is expected that vacancy rates in the downtown area are expected to moderate further to 7.7% by the end of this year, and average 7.5% for the remainder of the forecast period.

Coni petedand Unoccupied Rental Units

in 2004 fell to 8.6% and is expected to decline

Edmonton City,

further to 7.7% by the end of this year.

02002 02003 02004 lil2005'

The annual Rental Market Survey by CMHC pegged the apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton at 5.3% in October 2004, the highest since 1996. This is up

640

from the 3.4% rate in 2003 and the 1.7% rate in

340

2002. The 1.9 percentage point increase in 2004 the second largest amongst all Canada's CMAs - is

240

440

140

attributable to the significant increase in the construction of rental units over the past few years

-4into

40 M.rt :S-ou-: Soe Conad. anaFeb

\

0

0

Edmonton (Citv )

(Percent)

t rtn 0Ap'

14.0 '12.0

energy prices will keep renters away from home

10.0

ownership. These higher energy prices will also

0

*N

so s.

contribute to higher operating costs for landlords, who will find it difficult to pass these higher costs on to their tenants in the form of higher rents, due to already high vacancy rates in the region. This will lead to a reduction in construction activity in the multi-unit market, which, according to CMHC's Monthly Residential Construction Digest, has

,

Vacancy Rate Forecast =,:

It is expected that the apartment vacancy rate will decrease slightly to 5% by the end of 2005 as higher Shome prices, higher mortgage rates and higher * anticipated home heating costs brought on by higher

S

a tAprMayudHongCoalon o

and low mortgage rates, which have lured renters home ownership.

0

l

Co andldHosnMar

o

4.0

20 N

0.0.,:

2005 ) 2006

0, 0

200

.

2008

;2007N

.2009

2010 ,'

, ,

0

27

:

already taken effect, as the inventory of completed and unoccupied rental units in the city of Edmonton Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 13

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

Labour Market Employment growth in the Edmonton region is expected to remainflat in 2005, after increasing

3% in 2004. Employment growth will reboundto 1.3% 6,500innew2006, positions, or and average

....

Edmonton Labour Market Forecast.

Edmonton (C.M.A.) Createdwlobs N N,... ew JlobsCre'ated - Edmno

80

n (C.M.A.) :%

,

(Thousands)

~ ONew JtCrrated (0-,) Unemploy-An Rate %

8.O

.5

1.2% per year between 2007 and 2010. The

7.0

unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 4.7% this year and average 4.7%for the remainder5 of the forecastperiod.

6.

F1

6.

6

4

s: 4.0

According to Statistics Canada, total employment in

3o

the Edmonton region increased by 3% in 2004 to

556,300, or a gain of 16,400 new positions. The 3% growth in employment was the second largest annual increase among Canada's 10 major regions, with London growing the strongest at 4.3%. Calgary grew by 14,800 positions, or 2.5% - the fourth largest growth rate among Canadian regions. Edmonton has now outperformed Calgary in employment growth for the past three years. Edmonton's unemployment rate tfell astfrom e5% inears2003Edmnto 4.8% in 2004.unemplyment

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Prices The Edmonton region inflation rate is expected to increase to 2.4% in 2005 and 2.5% in 2006, due to

increase to 2.4% in 2005 and 2.5% in 2006, due to

rising utility prices and higher wage settlements.

Inflation is expected to average 2% per yearfor the remainderof the forecast period.

Despite Edmonton's recent strong economic growth, employment in the Edmonton CMA has actually fallen by 1.1% for the first seven months of this year compared over the same time period in 2004, according to the most recent edition of the Labour Force Statistics by Statistics Canada. The weak employment figures could be attributable to Edmonton's tight labour market, which, according to Statistics Canada, currently employs over 80% of those aged 25 to 44, making it difficult for employers to fill job vacancies. Also compounding the tight labour market condition in Edmonton is a lower level of net migration into the region, which is

Edmonton's inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 1% in 2004 from 5.3% in 2003 due to lower natural gas prices, particularly in comparison to those witnessed in early 2003, and to lower home heating costs, as both the 2000 Energy Rate Rider and 2001 Shortfall Collection Rate Rider were eliminated from consumer electricity bills at the beginning of 2004.

Also contributing to lower home heating costs were natural gas rebates that were issued by the government of Alberta under the Natural Gas Price Protection Act (NGPPA) for periods of high natural

now expected to reach 6,900 people in 2005, lower

gas prices during the winter months.

than the previous estimate of 9,000 people. than estimate the previous of 9,000 people.

As a result of weak year-to-date employment, it is expected that employment growth will remain flat in 2005 before increasing 1.3%, or 6,500 new positions in 2006 in response to increased activity in the energy sector and a slight increase in net migration.

Employment growth in the region will average 1.2%, or 6,500 positions per year for the remainder of the forecast period, lower than the 8,000 per year in previous estimates, due to a lower net migration forecast, and tighter labour market conditions. The unemployment rate will hover around 4.7% in the forecast period.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

0

0

0

The inflation rate is expected to increase to 2.4% in 2005 and by a further 2.5% in 2006, due largely in part to rebounding utility prices brought on by continued strength in energy prices, and also in part to higher wage settlements, which will translate into higher wage costs for businesses, and higher prices for consumers. Higher interest rates, along with a slight moderation in energy prices, will keep the inflation rate to an average of 2% per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

Page 14

0

* F Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

I

construction sector and help alleviate contractors'

,7 Edmnton Region Inflati

selling prices for their services.

Rate Fo e

Change in Consumer PriceIndex) , (Annual Average Percentage 3.5

IEdmonton Non-Residential Construction Price

30

(Anual Average Percentage Chage inConsumer Pice Index)

0

23

7 025

10

is rpo2d

06

2007Sti 2008

47.0

~35

2009

,

2010

0

~Non-Residential Construction Price

0

.'&

3

30

2005

0

~y

50

2000

<'

2007

M

2008

2009

2010

'

The non-residential construction price index, which isreported by Statistics Canada, measures changes in contractors' selling prices for new non-residential building construction for commercial, industrial and institutional development. The index is generated by Statistics Canada through surveys of both general and specialized trade contractors, and excludes the cost of land, design and real estate fees.

The non-residential price index has increased 6.8% in 2004, up from 2.7% in 2003, due to Edmonton's tight labour market and shortage of skilled labour, particularly in the trades sector, which increased contractors' selling prices. Also contributing to the increase in 2004 was the higher cost of construction materials, brought on by increased international commodity prices for items such as steel and cement, as countries, such as India and China, experienced robust economic growth.

The non-residential price index has increased 7.3% for the first half of 2005 when compared over the same time period in 2004, and is on pace to reaching 6.7% for the year as a whole, due to continued tight labour market conditions in Edmonton and strong commodity prices in international markets. Softer world economic growth in 2006 will help alleviate commodity prices, which will in turn help lower construction material costs, and bring the nonresidential construction price index down to 3.4% in 2006 and 3% in 2007. Also helping non-residential construction costs in the near term will be a softening residential construction market, which will help free up some labour for the non-residential Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 15

I

_

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS

Upside Risks to the Outlook Continued geopolitical tensions and large climatic events, such as hurricane Katrina, could disrupt oil supplies further and fuel volatility in world energy markets. This has already resulted in increased energy prices so far this year, which could persist well into the future, keeping energy investment and exports strong for Alberta and the Edmonton region.

including the continued development of nuclear and coal-fired power generation. The adoption of this approach would reduce the emphasis on gas-fired generating plants, slow the increase in United States natural gas demand and remove much of the upward pressure on recent gas prices. If aggressively adopted, this policy may lead to a slow down in the current pace of development of North American gas resources, and hamper natural gas development in lresources, and hamper natural gas development inta.

Alberta.

A concerted effort to meet the greenhouse gas objectives of the Kyoto protocol through a mandated increase in the reliance on natural gas would increase increase both its demand and price, and would require expanded drilling programs and pipeline

Better than expected growth in the United than expected Better economic States for the remainder of this year and into 2006 could also help boost the Edmonton economy, as more goods and services, particularly from the energy sector, are exported to the United States.

facilities in the province. Whether such a change would increase overall economic activity Alberta nintwih t eenon would would and Edmonton depend on the extent to which the bby these aand d e damaged mg be nte o other industries might other climate imtechange h provisions. e

thana expected level of net In addition, a Inhigher addition, migration into the Edmonton region would benefit Edmonton's tight labour market situation by needed skilled labour, which would providing muchlpsodng ou wi sild muchn lo, help soften construction costs, and improve employment growth.

There is no question that the oil sands sector has been playing a large role in Edmonton's recent been playing a large role in Edmonton's recent economic boom. Even thoughannounced there areoila sands large number of proposed and/or

Downside to the Risks Outlook A sustained increase in energy prices may dampen increase A sustained growth in the United States and the rest of the world economy as economy increased as inflation erodes the hampering of consumers, power purchasing pow er of consumers, hampering Canadian and Alberta exports. On the flip-side, a

0

projects expected to begin construction in Alberta in the forecast period, environmental and labour issues could hinder oil sands expansion.

The Edmonton region has been experiencing tremendous growth in its construction sector, is evident market, housing particularly by the level inofthe housing starts in thewhich last few years. by the level of housing starts in the last few years.

However, if the recent housing boom was based on market speculation instead of economic f theeooi nta. spclto make the risk that housing

fundamentals, then there is

market could crash in the event of a softening market could crash in the event of a softening an t an led to ma lead eonoy may word economy strengthening stregthnin world economy or reduced which would0 migration homes. Reduced for newnet-migration slow the demand increase in non-OPEC oil supplies to meet increased midgration Reduced homes. new for demand slow mrke shre, uttng astrin oil emad, oil demand, putting a strain onn OEC OPEC market share, wouldthe also reduce the level of skilled labour into the Edmonton region, making Edmonton's already tight which would drive down the price of oil. In such a region, making Edmonton's already tight anddmonton Alberta the in investment case, planned case plnnedinvstmnt i th Albrtaand labour market condition even tighter, and would labour market condition even tighter and would Edmonton energy sectors could be jeopardised and reduced. In provincial construction In increase revenues reduced. provincial government government revenues growth. costs further and dampen employment addition, very strong energy prices will ultimately employment growth. lead to higher gasoline prices, and higher home heating costs, which would erode consumer spending and soften economic growth.

0

Recent American national energy policies are proposing an increase in domestic energy supplies, 2005 Forecast Committee, September by: City 2005 epared September Prepared by: City Forecast Committee,

Page 16 Page

0

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Indicator

Actual/Estimate 2003 2002

2004 .

2005

Forecast 2007 2006

2008

2009

2010

United States, Canada and Alberta World Oil Price (US$/bbl) (1) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) (2) Economic Growth Rate (% change)(3) United States Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (%)

0

Exchange Rate(US$/Cdn$)

26.09 3.83

31.14 6.31

41.42 6.52

1.9 3.4 2.4

3.0 2.0 2.7 4.70

4.4 2.9 3.7 4.00

4.21 0.637

0 Net Migration - CMA(000) (4) Population - CMA(000) (5) - City(000) (5) Rate (CMA)(%) Growth Economic Employment (CMA)(000) Employment Growth Rate (%) New Jobs Created (CMA) (000) Unemployment Rate(CMA)(%) Inflation Rate CPI(CMA)(%) Vacancy Rate (%)

Apartment (CMA, Oct) Downtown Office (the City, Dec) Housing Starts (Units)

59.80 8.50

53.60 7.60

51.10 7.30

51.10 7.10

3.6 2.7 3.7 4.40

3.2 2.7 3.5 5.00

3.0 2.9 3.2 5.00

3.0 2.9

3.0 2.9

3.0 5.00

3.0 2.9 3.0 5.00

3.0 5.00

0.810

0.810

0.790

0.780

0.780

0.780

6.9 1,008 712 3.5

7.1 1,020 720 2.8

6.9 1,031 727 2.9

6.8 1,043 735 2.9

7.2 1,054 741 2.9

7.0 1,066 748 2.7

540 3.2 17 5.0 5.3

556 3.0 16 4.8 1.0

556 0.0 0 4.7 2.4

563 1.3 6.5 4.8 2.5

570 1.2 7.0 4.7 2.3

577 1.2 7.0 4.7 2.0

583 1.0 6.5 4.7 2.0

589 1.0 5.5 4.8 2.0

1.7

3.4

5.3

5.0

4.8

4.3

4.0

3.7

3.5

12.3

11.8

8.6

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.3

8,822

8,956

8,159

9,100

6,000

5,800

5,500

5,300

5,200

4,158

3,857

4,030

4,800

3,400

3,200

3,000

3,000

2,900

- Multi-Family -Total - Single Family

4,664 12,582 6,861

5,099 12,380 6,391

4,129 11,488 6,614

4,300 12,500 7,100

2,600 8,500 5,200

2,600 8,300 5,100

2,500 8,100 5,000

2,400 7,900 4,900

2,300 7,700 4,800

3,100 3,300 3,200 5,400 4,874 5,989 5,721 - Multi-Family Building Permit Value - City ($million) 1,142 1,075 1,381 1,800 1,300 900 800 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.8 6.7 2.7 2.1 Non-Res Construction Price (% change) * Estimates Sources: Actual/Estimate: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, CB Richard Ellis, Petroleum Association, Alberta Economic Development and The City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department Forecast: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

3,000

2,900

700 2.4

600 2.0

CMA

0Canadian

523 3.2 16 5.2 2.9

64.20 9.05

- Single Family

City

0

12.9 967* 686* 6.0*

0.770 0.714 Edmonton 5.3 5.4 995* 985* 707* 698* 4.3* 5.9*

58.10 7.95

-Total

4Notes:

05.

1. World oil prices are for West Texas intermediate crude at Cushing, Oklahoma in U.S. dollars.

2. Natural gas prices are AECO 30-Day Spot Natural Gas Price (Can$/GJ) 3. The U.S., Canada and Alberta economic growth rates are for real GDP at market price.

4. Numbers are for July 1 of previous year to June 31 of current year.

The 2001 figures are post-censal estimates by Statistics Canada, which are different from the actual 2001 Canada Census.

0

0I

0I 0

*

0l

Prepared 2005 September 2005 Committee, September by: City City Forecast ForecastCommittee, Prepardby:

Page Page 17 17

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

40 Table 2: City of Edmonton Population Forecast, 2005 - 2010 2005*

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0-4

37,487

40,151

40,414

40,843

41,158

41,535

5-9

39,554

37,646

37,705

37,792

37,760

37,924

10 - 14

42,613

40,684

39,648

38,879

38,200

37,780

15 - 19

50,448

46,159

46,103

45,952

45,412

44,694

20 -24

67,792

61,543

61,677

61,408

61,281

61,385

25 -29

61,997

63,656

64,349

65,751

66,615

67,323

30 - 34

52,093

56,070

57,442

58,402

59,325

60,226

35 -39

52,531

51,840

51,769

52,225

52,419

52,902

40 -44

57,098

55,657

54,137

52,374

51,100

50,636

45 - 49

56,565

58,081

58,190

58,376

57,896

56,939

50 -54

48,112

49,608

51,421

53,040

54,024

54,687

55 - 59

36,979

39,950

40,627

41,743

43,522

45,336

60 -64

26,804

30,485

32,960

35,139

36,949

38,898

65 - 69

22,866

24,890

25,671

26,728

27,796

28,876

70 - 74

20,891

21,757

21,906

22,230

22,493

22,914

75-79

17,071

18,086

18,431

18,701

18,804

18,870

80 -84

12,131

12,795

12,944

13,253

13,587

13,941

85+

9,359

10,941

11,607

12,164

12,644

13,132

712,391

720,000

727,000

735,000

740,987

748,000

Total

Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, September 2005 *2005 Census. Population estimates as of July 1.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 18

0

I

Table 3: Edmonton CMA Population Forecast, 2005 - 2010*

* *

S20

0 S45 S50

S60

*

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0 -4

57,117

58,206

58,670

59,355

59,978

60,668

5 -9

58,852

57,578

57,752

57,935

58,038

58,423

10 - 14

65,128

64,052

62,515

61,370

60,459

59,933

15 - 19

70,021

70,220

70,232

70,039

69,384

68,412

-24

78,333

79,096

79,351

79,080

79,148

79,475

25 -29

80,141

81,089

82,084

83,959

85,310

86,421

30 -34

75,144

76,647

78,643

80,053

81,559

82,990

35 -39

74,336

74,652

74,668

75,402

75,896

76,763

40 -44

83,952

81,759

79,644

77,130

75,460

74,944

- 49

83,892

84,962

85,249

85,611

85,145

83,933

-54

71,216

74,389

77,245

79,780

81,500

82,701

55 - 59

57,914

60,457

61,577

63,355

66,243

69,171

- 64

41,174

43,216

46,840

50,015

52,696

55,560

65 - 69

32,423

33,313

34,407

35,870

37,409

38,943

70 -74

27,806

27,966

28,198

28,643

29,066

29,676

75 -79

22,134

22,802

23,273

23,632

23,827

23,966

80 - 84

15,640

16,035

16,251

16,657

17,124

17,615

85+

12,778

13,560

14,403

15,113

15,759

16,408

STotal *

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

1,008,000 1,020,000 1,031,000 1,043,000 1,054,000 1,066,000

Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, September 2005 *Population estimates as of July 1.

0

*

eparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 19

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 19

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

I

number of children at 1.69, and has shown increases in births in four of the last five years.

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK KEY SOCIAL ISSUES

Social Implications of Demographic Change Declining birth rates, smaller families and fewer children will have long term impacts on Edmonton's population, labour force and could have implicationsfor the overall ability to maintain facilities,programsand services.

Edmonton's age-specific fertility rate and crude birth rate (live births per 1,000 population) have been declining similar to the national decline. In 1990, the annual age specific fertility rate in Edmonton was 66.5 live births per 1,000 women age 15-44. By 2003, this had declined to 51.8 per 1,000 women (and this was an increase from 2002 when it was 50.2). The annual crude birth rate decreased from 17 in 1990 to 12.0 in 2003). .

Edmonton

It is estimated that over the forecast period Edmonton's 0-9 year age group will increase by 3%.

The 10-14 year age group will decline by 8% and the 15-19 age group will decline by 2.3%. This is

8.

40.0

20.0 ---

1o

Birth PopulationCanada Rate per 1,000

16.0 ----------------------------:,- - -, 16.0-- - - - - -5,

13. - - - - - - - 12.0

11.0

-

- - - - -- .

.

-

-

-fertility

.

.,

- - - -11.0 -- - -- - - -- - - -- -

'"

-

-.1

--------------------.mirrors

Sorce:S tistcs

I

I

II

1

-

--

-

..

.0.. .

91 2 9

94999

9

00 '0

92

0

,

HeafthAt.ory

rat livebirthsper 1.000populion Fertiiyrate

e birth per.1,0D0

menage 15-44

population and help support programs and services for older people and young children. The life time rate of women who immigrated to Canada from 1996 to 2001 was 3.1 births per woman of child-bearing age. However, the longer immigrant

women stay in Canada, the closer their fertility rate

10.0

I

-

Immigration of younger families from other regions of the globe is an approach that is expected to help mitigate the anticipated decline in the younger

Birth Rate per 1,000 Population Canada

14.0 --.- - -..

-

- -- - - - -- - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - -

- - -

0.0 . . 't

-.

: --------

30.0 - -

swe:,,

-

--

50o.0

follow, but remain above the national birth rate.

-

- - --

60.0-

Locally, the decline in the birth rate will tend to

..--- - -,-13 --- - -

Rate - --Fertility Crude Birth Rate - -----

70.0--..-.

rate has declined by about a third between 1990 and 2000. Further declines are expected nationally.

.

7---

7--

80o.

consistent with the demographic changes that are happening in Canada as a whole. The national birth

.

,-*

Birth and Fertility Rates9

2

.can

As of 2002, the number of children born to Canadian women remained near the all-time low set in 2000. It had risen slightly to 1.5 children for every woman of child-bearing age, approaching the rate of 1.4 children reported in many European countries. This compares with a rate of 2.0 children per woman in the United States. Alberta showed a slightly higher

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

the Canadian average, particularly if they

arrived at a young age and received part of their schooling here. This pattern of decline in fertility is not as marked among women who immigrated from

Asia and the Middle East (however, a relatively high proportion of immigrants choosing Edmonton are of these geographic sources). The decline in fertility among immigrant women is significant, because natural increase (births minus deaths) has been making a steadily smaller contribution to our population growth for Canada in recent years.

Page 20

0 0

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S Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 S *

*

Edmonton's school boards are examining schools in neighbourhoods with declining populations of young children. School closures and amalgamation are intended to enable students to have quality programs with options available. Closures and sale also freeup resources to renew existing priority facilities and for new schools in areas of the city that are seeing development and increasing population. Some closed schools are being converted to community use including affordable housing for lower income citizens.

S6

Diversity

0 *

Edmonton's population is increasingly diverse.

Businesses and governments that are not willing to be culturally sensitive may be marginalizing themselves from this growing portion of the

*

population.

0 *

Edmonton is a diverse city. Fifteen per cent of Edmontonians are visible minorities; in Edmonton 21.8% of the population in 2001 had immigrated to Canada some time during their lives. More than 4% of Edmontonians identify as having an Aboriginal background.

*

* 0

S

The City of Edmonton has established an Office of Diversity within its Administration. The Office will help to ensure City employment policies are not barriers to the workforce and reflect Edmonton's diverse diverse population. population. As As well, well, the the Office Office will will help help that Edmonton's citizens, regardless of ensure background, background, are are able able to to effectively effectively utilize utilize City City S programs, facilities and services. *

0 0 * * 0 *

Immigrants 0

Canada is now second only to Australia in terms of the percentage of its population that was foreignborn. Twenty one per cent of Edmontonians were born in other countries.

0 While only 2% of immigrants select Edmonton as their home, over 19,000 Edmontonians had arrived from other countries during the 1996 to 2001 period.

Notwithstanding this, the per cent of the Edmonton population that was foreign born in 2001 was lower than in previous decades.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

0

The following were the top sources of immigrants to Edmonton during the 1996-2001 period.

Countries Imigration Source Countries Pi Prime immigration Edmonton,

,,

199&-2001

14

10o 8.

2'

SOU

Sss

Caada

...

.

...

India ia Philippines Hong Kong Viet Nam Ukraine United States Korea, South Korea, South Yugslavia Pakistan Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzeovina

2410 2 2240 800 570 520

12.5% 12.% 11.6% 4.1% 3.0% 2.7%

500 445 445

2.6% 2.3% 2.3%

42 415 410 410

2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 21%

It is noteworthy that over 40% of recent immigrants have come from south, south-east and east Asia.

Many have different language backgrounds and over 30,000 recent immigrants had knowledge of neither English nor French, Canada's two official languages in 2001.

The majority of immigrants to Canada during the period 1996 to 2001 were of working age (25-64).

On average, immigrants tend to have higher levels of education than people born in Canada and adult immigrants are much more likely to seek additional education once they arrive. Notwithstanding their educational achievements, recent immigrants are more likely to work in low-paying or non-skilled jobs, and are more likely to be unemployed than native-born Canadians. On the whole, recent

Page 21

0 0

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

immigrants, aged 25-54, earn on average only 63% of their Canadian-born counterparts.

Those recent immigrants, working in the 29 industries (many "high tech" industries), that employ slightly more than half of all immigrants, earn 67.6% as much as their Canadian counterparts.

In Edmonton, recent immigrants had an employment rate of 76.1%, compared to 84% for other Edmontonians. Their unemployment rate was also higher (5.9%, versus 4.1% for others). Also, 21.2% of immigrants (all periods of immigration) to Edmonton had low incomes, similar to the general population, whereas 40.6% of recent immigrants (1996-2001) had incomes below the Statistics Canada low income cut off.

Immigration and Settlement issues are of interest to many in Edmonton and are one of Edmonton City Council's Special Initiatives for 2005-2007. The City will seek ways to increase the numbers of newcomers to Canada who settle in Edmonton's supportive and receptive community. Council will hold a round table on reception and settlement of newcomers with key stakeholders. Council will explore the possibility of an agreement on immigration with the governments of Alberta and Canada and explore ways to attract and retain immigrants.

The City will support this special initiative by supporting programs that attract immigrants and their effective integration. The City will facilitate an immigrant forum to discuss concerns about social and economic integration and collaborate with

community groups to develop a vibrant international marketplace.

Aboriginal People yung, Edmonton's Aboriginal communities are young, growing in number and becoming better educated.

They are a group that could have an even greater impact on and make significant contributions to our economy and life in our city.

Alberta's population identify as Aboriginal).

However, Edmonton's Aboriginal population has grown substantially during the 1996 to 2001 period.

Edmonton has the second largest number of Aboriginal people of Canadian cities after Winnipeg.

As part of City Council's Special Initiatives on Aboriginal Issues, the City has been working with Edmonton's Aboriginal communities to develop an "accord" which will provide direction as to how the City will interact with Aboriginal peoples both as an employer and as a service provider. The City has established an Edmonton Aboriginal Accord Office, in cooperation with the City of Edmonton Aboriginal Urban Affairs Committee, to work with Aboriginal community leaders to further actions in this regard.

In 1996, the federal census indicated that there were 25,285 people in Edmonton who identified as Aboriginal. The 2001 Census indicated that there were over 30,000 who identified as Aboriginal (an increase of over 20%). Projections indicate that the Aboriginal identity population in Edmonton could reach 44,000 by 2017 (an increase of about 45%).

As well, the census found that there were over 40,215 Edmontonians who indicated they had Aboriginal origins (ancestry) whether or not they identified as being Aboriginal (this larger group overlaps with those who identify as Aboriginal). It is widely believed that the Aboriginal population is undercounted in the Census of Canada.

Aboriginal peoples in Edmonton are diverse within themselves and include North American Indians themselves of diverse cultural and linguistic

backgrounds) (44%), Metis (52%) and a smaller backgrounds) (44%), Metis (52%) and a smaller number of Inuit (1%).

Metis people are overrepresented in Edmonton when compared to their proportion in Canada as a whole. There are also other groupings based on historic, cultural and legal issues. Edmonton is a magnet for many Aboriginal people looking for employment, housing, education and services. Some Aboriginal people move back and forth to the City from reserves and other communities surrounding the city or from Northern Alberta.

Aboriginal people are under-represented in Edmonton when compared with the province as a whole (4.6% of Edmonton's population and 5.3% of

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

-

0 0

0 0 0 0

0

0

0

Page 22

I

Edmonton's Aboriginal people are facing- many challenges. Some of these relate to poverty, family disruption, subjugation of culture and language, substance and alcohol abuse, discrimination, and low employment and high unemployment levels,

* * *

S * *

* 0 *

The Aboriginal community is young and growing rapidly. In 2001, 31.3% of the Aboriginal population was under age 15 compared to 19.7% for the general population. On the other hand, only 2.8% of Edmonton's Aboriginal communities are over age 65 compared to 11.6% of the general population.

The Aboriginal labour force participation rate (66%) is approaching that of the City as a whole (70%).

The unemployment rate for Aboriginal people was more than twice as high as that of the general population in 2001 (14% as opposed to 6%). Also, almost 44% of Edmonton's Aboriginal people have low incomes (Statistics Canada Low Income Cut Off).

Aboriginal people in western Canada work in ~Most Mpopulation

the service sector as does the general population non(74.1% of non75.6% of workers; 75.6% Aboriginal workers; of Aboriginal (74.1% of Aboriginal workers). Aboriginal youth are having a time with employment as 26.6% of more difficult boreigincut * i inw western st entCan 2 were Canada ~Aboriginal youth a l Cn-A w you nloy 1% ubne th unemployed compared to 17.1% of non-Aboriginal Aboriginal people in Alberta have higher 0youth. labour force participation rate, lower unemployment 0 * and higher employment rates than those in the other western provinces. Improved educational attainment 0 and increasing numbers of Aboriginal businesses bode well for improved employment rates and higher incomes in the future, h SVisible

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

Minorities

The visible minority population in the Edmonton CMA has increased in the last ten years due in large part to an inflow of immigrants. Of the 44,900 immigrants who arrived in Canada in the 1990s and who settled in Edmonton, 71% were also visible minorities in 2001.

People with visible minority backgrounds contribute much to the richness of Edmonton adding to the diversity and vibrancy of cultural, religious, arts, leisure and other opportunities in our City.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

-.

Visible minorities accounted for 15% of the Edmonton region's 927,000 residents in 2001, up from 14% in 1996 and 13% in 1991. Edmonton had the fifth highest proportion of visible minorities behind areas, metropolitan census among Vancouver, Toronto, Abbotsford and Calgary.

About 20% of the City of Edmonton population were visible minorities in 2001. The proportion in 2001 was well above the national level of 13% and the Alberta provincial level of 11%. Every fifth person visible of aa visible was of Edmonton was of Edmonton city of the city in the person in minority background.

About 4% or less of the population in the other municipalities within the Edmonton census metropolitan area was comprised of visible minorities.

The Edmonton census metropolitan area had about 41,300 Chinese residents, making it the fifth highest of Chinese in the country. More than one

in five Chinese living in Edmonton immigrated in

nEmno mirtdi i ieCieelvn the past ten years. Other large groups of visible minorities in Edmonton included South Asians (29,100), Filipinos (14,200), and Blacks (14,100).

Of Edmonton's visible minority population, 24.7% have low incomes, a much higher rate than the general population.

Families Canadians are waiting longer to marry. Commonlaw relationshipsand other family forms are more common. There is no one form of traditionalfamily that applies to all Edmontonians. This will have additional impacts on employment benefits and family benefits and services.

Paralleling a Canada-wide trend, the number of marriages in Alberta in 2001 declined by 3.5% from 2000 (Canada as a whole showed a 6.8% decline).

This reflects a long-term trend - people choosing a over common-low arrangement/relationship following or union marriage, particularly as a first break up of a previous marriage.

Forty three per cent of Canadian men and 53.3% of Canadian women age 20-29 years selected a

Page 23

0 Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

0

common-law relationship as their first union. The percentage selecting common-law relationships as their first union decreases with age.

People are also waiting longer to marry. The average age of brides in 1981 was 26.2 years; by 2001 it had risen by more than 5 years to 31.9 years. The average age of marriage for males also increased, Coincident with this, the average age of birth of a first child also increases and people are having fewer children. People are also getting divorced at a later age.

The 2001 Census of Canada also found that 0.5% of Edmonton families are same-sex couples. Recent changes to the Federal Marriage Act will likely have little impact on the number of these families but may have positive impacts on their stability, Ft U n Marriagean aCommonL Marriage and Common-Law as First Unions UMarriage oCommon Law -7-

--

--

--

--

-

--

--

- -

:.:

---

- -----------

m .....-- ...-

10

.

0°.0

-

-

4population

U

U

60-80 Va...

50-s Year.

o.

--

-

- -

0.4

-

0.0 40.49 Year.

30 39 Years

The government of Alberta has conducted a review of its Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program. Its aim was "to identify ways to renew AISH so it better meets the needs of people receiving AISH, while ensuring the program is affordable and remains available to Albertans who need it."

0

On May 1, 2005, as announced in the Speech from the Throne, the benefit rates for AISH recipients increased to $950 per month. Effective March 2006, the benefit rate will increase further to $1,000 per month.

0

In 2001, 15.8% of Canadians had some activity limitation due to physical or mental disability.

Alberta was very close to the national average, at 16%, while Edmonton was above the national 17.6%. average at

Canadian Women, 2001

1 2

Health

17.6%.

Disability increases with age. About 6.5% of Edmontonians with a disability are under 15 years of age, while more than 15% are in each of the age groups greater than 44 years of age. An aging will likely mean more people with disabilities. Accessibility to facilities, services and businesses will become even more important.

- . ....-.â&#x20AC;˘...

20-29 Year-

Source: Statistics Canada

Disability Rates by Age, 2001 O Edmonton lAlberta

S20%

Selected Family Types Edmonton, 2001

...

10%

60% 60%50-41.8%

5%

40%-

. %

27.8%

30%

2.18

%

.3'% >0-14

yearn year

7

20%

1524 ~25-34 yeara

35-44 45-54 year.

years

55-64 years

65-74 7S+ years

years

4 a

10%

Source Urban Poverty Project CCSD0 2004

1o% Married Couples

Married Couples

(No

(With

Children) Children)

Common Common Lone Law(No Law(with Parents.

Children)

N

'

.

Children)

Canada Source:2001Censusof Canada.Statistics -"

.

-

..

-

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

More than 82% of those over the age of 65 had at least one chronic illness and about 50% had a

disability. At age 65, Edmontonians can expect to live an additional 13.8 years. Unfortunately, only three of these years will be disability free.

Page 24

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0 Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

li

0

.

S The Government of Alberta is ready to implement the remaining recommendations of the Premier's Advisory Council on Health (the Mazankowski Report). Initial steps will include: * encouraging regional health authorities to be more innovative, * expanding Alberta's Electronic Health Record to make more patient information available to health professionals across regional health authority boundaries by 2008, * creating an expert panel to review new and emerging health services for possible public funding, and * introducing a school curriculum on wellness next year to begin making Albertans the healthiest people in Canada.

* S *

0 *

0

The Alberta Government is developing and consulting with Albertans about the concept of a "third way" to provide health care. This will involve re-definition of insured services with some form of

significantly lower life expectancies than the national rate. Edmonton (Capital Health Region) life expectancy at birth is 79.9 years for both sexes (77.4 years males and 82.4 years females) and is longer than the national rate and longer than the provincial rate (79.5 years both sexes). The gap between the national life expectancy rate at age 65 is even greater. The Edmonton rate is 19.5 years while the national rate is only 18.8 years. The gap between the Edmonton rate and the provincial rate is smaller.

Life E pctancy 2001 Male Both s Sexes Year Expectancy s Years at birth 77 79.5 ,Canada 79.5 77.1 Alberta 80.2 78.1 Calgary HR Capital Health 79.9 77.4

_

_

Females Years 82 82 82.4 82.4

Expectancy at age 65

private delivery and private-sector insurance for

Canada

18.8

17

20.5

these costs. The concept will be further developed.

The third-way package will include: * an overall health policy,

Alberta Calgary HR ,, ,,

19.2 19.3

17.4 17.8

20.8 20.8

Ca ital Health

19.5

17.6

21.3

an overall health policy,

* improved access and efficiency, *Swellness wellness and and injury injury prevention, prevention, * children'st health priority, Simproved access to mental health services, * an electronic health record, expansion of primary health care, controlling drug costs and increasing 0 Scoverage, * improving quality of long term care, * increasing the supply of health care providers, and S * addressing the needs of rural communities.

Edmontonians are generally healthy. Over 61% of those living in the Capital Health Region self-rated their health as excellent or very good during the five year period 1995-2000. This is just slightly below the five-year average for all Albertans of 63.1%.

The government will also invest an additional $500 million over three years (beginning 2005/06) in the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research.

In 2003, 82.1% of people in the Capital Health Region had contact with a medical doctor in the past year (slightly above the provincial and national rates). 8.9% had contact with a health professional about mental health in the past 12 months (slightly higher than the provincial rate) and 62.7% had contact with a dental professional during the past year (slightly lower than the provincial and national rates).

5

Canada has one of the longest life expectancies in the world - 79.5 years for both sexes (77 years for males and 82 years for females) at birth. Life expectancy varies considerably within Canada and remote, northern areas of the country have

Edmontonians need to be encouraged to be more active. Inactivity leads to chronic health problems and a lesser quality of life. Physical activity and proper nutrition are keys to good health. Lack of regular physical activity puts people at increased risk

i

epared by: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005 Prepared by: Cit Forecast Committee, September 2005

* * * i 0 *

Page 25 Page 25

S

0

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

of coronary artery disease, osteoporosis, stroke, high blood pressure, colon cancer and Type 2 diabetes.

The Canadian Community Health Survey conducted

by Statistics Canada in 2003 found that most Edmontonians are aware of the value of being physically active. They realize that exercise is important to maintaining good health, and they often are aware of what they should be doing to obtain health benefits. Almost 56.3% of Edmontonians (Capital Health Region) report they are physically active or moderately active. Males are more active than females (56.3% of males report being physically active or moderately active in contrast to 47.7% of females). As well, Edmontonians are more active than the country as a whole (50.3% of Canadians report being physically active or moderately active). However, Calgarians and other Albertans are more active than Edmontonians (57.3% and 54% of Calgarians and Albertans report being physically active or moderately active, respectively). 43.9% of Edmontonians report being physically inactive.

A survey conducted for Active Edmonton in 2003 also indicated that as many as 36% of the population have no intention of changing their activity patterns soon and 52% said they planned some increase in their physical activity within the next six months.

People tend to become less physically active as they get older.

Council's Special Initiatives on "Sports, Recreation Opportunities" and "Capital Health Partnership" support the Active Edmonton program and plans for improved facilities, trails and parks to encourage

2002 report. Edmontonians have the same rate of obesity as all Canadians. A disturbing fact is that almost one-third of children aged 2-11 are overweight (29% of boys; 27% of girls in 2000/01) and about half of them would be considered obese.

These rates had tripled over the previous fifteen years for boys and doubled for girls. A high obesity rate, a high smoking rate, and a high depression rate were the strongest predictors of a low disability free life expectancy. Obesity is associated with additional social and personal problems for children.

In May 2003 the City of Edmonton in collaboration with over 35 community and governmental organizations (e.g. Capital Health, Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues, Sport Council, Health Canada) initiated Active Edmonton (www.activedmonton.ca) to increase and improve physical activity in Edmonton. Active Edmonton has monthly events, challenge contests, workshops and symposiums, promotional campaign, research and evaluation (to track participation levels, awareness and barriers), Active Edmonton Resource Guide, an information line (448-4555), weekly fit tips on A Channel and a web site. This year's focus area is children and youth. Beginning in May 2005 the focus will be on the workplace. Edmonton's Mayor Stephen Mandel is honourary chair of Active Edmonton. The Active Edmonton model is being examined for potential use across Canada.

The aging population poses challenges for our

youth oriented society. More programsand services '

an attractive city.

are being designed with seniors in mind.

The City will also help ensure civic facilities and public transit support health investments. Public health emergency plans will be formulated. Other partnerships in the health arena (e.g. public access defibrillation) will be developed to help Edmontonians have healthy and long lives.

Alberta has the youngest population of the provinces, 10.4% of Albertans were 65 years of age or over in 2001. This compares reto 13% for Canada as slightly higher higher Edmontonians, slightly 11.7% of of Edmontonians, as aa whole. whole. 11.7% than the rate for the province, were over the age of 65 in 2001. However, their numbers are growing rapidly. In the ten year period 1991 to 2001, the number of seniors in Edmonton increased by 51% while the total population increased by only 8%. By5 By while the total

Prepared September by: City 2005Forecast Committee,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

0

Seniors

Edmontonians to be active and help keep Edmonton

It has recently been estimated that 50% of the United States population overweight or obese.

15 of fr Amricn bhindther cosin.Canadians areis ot are not far behind their American cousins. 15% of Canadians (age 20+) were found to be obese in a

0

0 Page 26

Page 26

I

*

2046 it is expected that one out of four Canadians will be over the age of 65 years.

*

0

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

Council's Special Seniors Issues Initiative will enhance services and opportunities for the growing seniors' population. The City will improve its knowledge base and continue liaison and partnerships with relevant agencies. Council will also: * implement Seniors Friendly training for City staff, * conduct forums for the City to ready itself for the growing seniors population, and * help ensure equitable services for seniors; The City will also: * develop a blueprint for action for senior's services, Seniors' Edmonton the * support Coordinating Council and other agencies, and * expand City operated Senior Centres.

Adequate retirement income is a major factor in the

with low income. It is important to note that older women (and women in general) have higher rates of low income/poverty than do men. For the 75-84 year age group, 11.7% of men have low incomes while 25.4% of women, more than twice the rate of men, have low incomes. At the 85+ age group, the difference is much more dramatic; 31.8% of women have low incomes while only a small number of men have low incomes.

Edmonton City Council has recently approved a property tax rebate of $39 for older homeowners who have low incomes and are receiving benefits from the Alberta Seniors Benefit. While the rebate is a relatively small amount, it reflects the average increase in property taxes for 2005. The rebate shows the City of Edmonton's concern for older people who are on fixed incomes and have few financial resources.

The federal government has stated that it is increasing the level of financial benefit for lowincome seniors.

well-being of older people. Canadians with incomes below $20,000 were much more likely to state that they had no plans to retire than persons with an income $40,000 or greater. Retirement plans were also greatly influenced by whether or not the individual had a private (or employment) pension plan. Recent immigrants (arriving since 1980) were much more likely (47%) to have no fixed retirement plans and were also more concerned (45%) about the adequacy of their financial preparations for retirement.

Consideration to reduce benefits for seniors because many seniors appear to be affluent, may be misguided. A large group of Edmonton seniors, primarily older women, have low incomes, The Government of Alberta has appointed an MLA Task Force to gather input on proposed health service and accommodation standards for continuing care, mostly for Alberta seniors.

During the 2000 income year, 20.5% of Edmonton seniors (age 65+) had incomes below the Statistics Canada low income cut off. This is the largest per cent with low income of any adult age group and closely reflects the per cent of the total population

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

The provincial government is in the early stages reexamining its benefits to seniors. On March 2, 2005, the Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated that seniors benefits would be expanded to include dental and optical needs along with help to cover annual increases in the education portion of property taxes.

Education Rising tuition fees at Alberta's post secondary educational institutions pose barriers that keep lower income individuals from improving their incomes and quality of life through the means of higher educationalattainment.

Edmontonians like to think of themselves as being part of a "smart" city. Indeed, the percentage of Edmontonians (age 15+) with a university degree has increased from 15.6% in 1996 to 17.5% in 2001.

The educational attainment of parents is a good indicator or predictor of the educational attainment of children. Each additional year of parental education increases the likelihood of university attendance for children by as much as five percentage points.

Page 27

1[

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 I0

University Tuition 2001-02 Selected Programs

In 2005, the provincial government will be introducing a new grant for newborn Albertans. The grant provides newborn Albertans with $500 for

$6,00

future education. The grant will make available $500

ss,5oo

towards a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) for every child born to or adopted by Alberta residents in 2005 and after.

Three subsequent grants of $100 each will be available to children attending school in Alberta at ages 8, 11 and 14, starting in 2013. A child will not have to receive previous grants in order to qualify for subsequent grants. This grant should provide

0 Artstuition($)2002-03

OCommenrcetuition($)2002-03

0 Science tuition ($) 2002-03

MGraduate tuition ($) 2002-03

$5ss,oo $4,

-

($)2002-03

- - - - -- - - -- - -

$4,o -

---

so

-

--

$3,000 $2500

- -

0

oo $$1,500 $100 o.. ont.

NS M. A s BC Source: Quality ofLife InCanadian Communities. 2004. FCM

Sa,

for increases in tuition at Alberta's post reliefinstitutions. some secondary secondary institutions.

celebrations, As part of Alberta's Centennial As part of Alberta's Centennial celebrations, Premier Klein announced that tuition in Alberta

0

The percentage of men with a university degree exceeds that of women with a university degree. In 1971, 6.6% of Canadian men had a university degree and 3.5% of Canadian women had a university degree. Not only has the number and percentage of Canadians with a university degree grown but the gender gap in higher education is also narrowing. In 1996, 14.3% of Canadian men and 12.3% of women had a university degree.

post-secondary schools will remain at the same levels for 2005-06 as they were in 2004-05. Other policy initiatives include:

0

In Edmonton, the gap appears to be wider than in Canada as a whole. In Edmonton, 22% of men and 15% of women age 20-64 in 2001, had a university certificate, diploma or degree. This is in contrast to 21.2% males and 21.9% females having a university certificate, diploma or degree on a national basis.

Currently, enrolment of women in university exceeds that of men.

*

*

*

*

A new strategy to help ensure that money is not a barrier to students undertaking postsecondary education and training in Alberta post-secondary schools.

A new series of provincial scholarships and fellowships for graduate students at Alberta universities.

An additional 15,000 apprenticeship and post-secondary institution spaces will be created in Alberta institutions over the next three years and expanded to 30,000 at the end of the next six years. The number of spaces will increase to 60,000 by 2020.

An additional 15,000 apprenticeship and post-secondary institution spaces will be

Alberta has among the highest post-secondary

created in Alberta institutions over the next

education tuition fees of the provinces. Alberta has the highest tuition in science and commerce and second highest in arts. This has made it difficult for some Albertans, including some Edmontonians, to improve their educational attainment,

three years. The new space will increase to 30,000 by the end of the next six years, and to 60,000 by 2020.

A $3 billion endowment by the Alberta government for innovative programs at Alberta post-secondary institutions.

*

0 0

0

Edmonton City Council's special "Post-Secondary Relationships" initiative will enhance relationships with Edmonton and area post-secondary educational institutions. The City will work to help institutions to attract new professors and strategize key initiatives. Partnerships will be furthered in the areas

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 28

is

0

10 Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

*

of leadership, study of children, youth and families, and reducing the gap between research and practice.

population had incomes below the Statistics Canada low-income cut off. In 2001, this had been reduced to 12.1%. In the City of Edmonton, poverty or lowincome is more extensive than it is in the region. The Edmonton city rate was 20% (2001).

Nationally, elementary and secondary school enrolments had declined by 1.6% between fiscal 1996/97 and 2004/05. However, total spending on public elementary and secondary schools has increased by 11.3% in 2004 constant dollars. In

idence of Low Income Inc=,

this period' while expenditures on elementary and secondary education have increased by 32.9%.

Alberta spending per pupil has grown by 31.9%2 during this same period.

High School Graduation Rate

-30%

"

\

.25% 0

65%

65 9%

1.9%

0 75%Source

667%

,0 .

1.

Canada

70%

k

Incnce of Low Income

Alberta, enrolment has increased by 0.8% during

*Alberta

I

Alberta

Edmonton

Edmonton CMA

Calgary

CCSD,2004 UrbanPoverty Project,

65

632

60%

On February 7, 2005, Alberta's Premier, Ralph

55s

Klein announced and was confirmed in the March 2,

2005 Speech from the Throne that the 2005-06

-.

404

19971/98

.Sou:

StabsteC

2000/01

2001/02.

2002/03

.. -nd-Dy

provincial budget would include an increase in Alberta's minimum wage. The increase from $5.90 to $7.00, an increase of 18.6% took effect September

1, 2005. The provincial government estimates that about 11,000 Albertans earn minimum wage.

S *

* *

A total of 31,335 secondary students graduated from Alberta schools in 2002/03, up 17.8% from 1997/98.

Alberta had the lowest graduation rate among the provinces with only two-thirds of youth graduated from high school in 2002/03. On a brighter note, the graduation rate in Alberta is improving. In many of the other provinces it is deteriorating.

Poverty

S * *

While the economy has significantly improved during the first half of the decade, there are many who have not benefited. Governmental and other society efforts need to be further directed at reducing poverty rather than just maintaining people in it.

As of September 1, 2005 Alberta had the third highest minimum wage rate of the provinces (prior to this Alberta had the lowest minimum wage), which increased from $5.90 per hour for adults to $7.00 per hour. While this is a significant increase, a single parent with one child would have to work 72.45 hours per week to meet the income threshold of the low income cut off (pre-tax) to be considered not poor. This is an improvement from before the increase in minimum wage when it took 80.65 hours per week to meet the low income cut off threshold.

The improved economy in Canada and especially in Alberta has reduced the number and percentage of Edmontonians (CMA) living with low-incomes since the mid-1990s. In 1996, 17.2% of the

*

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 29

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 29

S

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 i0 Council's Special Initiative on a "Child Friendly City" includes:

N

.

improving advocacy for children internally

Hourly Minimum Wage by Province, 2001

and externally with partners, understanding and benchmarking

S*

services for children,

SBOa

*

$7l $6

*

SI I

City

*

[ ,I

determining barriers to services and potential funding from other orders of government to address these, developing pilot projects, and developing a corporate children's services framework.

Saskatchewan Labour -Source

Child Care some form of pre-school receive Most children now chilt ity chare. ot Q are of heThe child care. Quality of that care can have a

significant impact on children's development and later life.

In 2000/01, 53% of Canadian children ages six months to five years of age were in non-parental child care. This had increased from 42% in 1994/05.

25% of these were enrolled in day care, up from 20% ten years earlier. While Alberta had the lowest provincial rate of child care among the provinces, 45.7% (tied with British Columbia) were enrolled in child care. Children from single-parent families were more likely to be enrolled in child care than children from two-parent families. Children in households with incomes below the low income cut off were less likely to be enrolled in child care than children from higher income (equal to or above the low income cut off), 37.3% and 57.1%, respectively.

In the October 5, 2004 Speech from the Throne, the federal government proposed building a "national child care program" based on four key principles: quality, universality, accessibility, and development. proposed program would help provinces provide a child care program for children up to age six. The federal government indicates a commitment of $5 billion over a five year period.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador have signed agreements in principle with the Federal government regarding funding for child care.

Special considerations for the Alberta-Canada

child care than are their rural counterparts.

agreement include: and child care programs * that early learning and services include private and public providers, for children under age six; for children under age six; *providers, * that services will standards established Alberta; and monitored by meet c le c ite * that investment can include capital and g a ninude f oatin wage subsidies, fee operating funding, enhancements, training, professional and support, quality assurance development ra re and pent and parent information and referral.

The City's services to the children of Edmonton ared based on the international UNICEF-supported "child friendly" secretariat key indicators. Edmonton City

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

0

On July 7, 2005, the governments of Canada and Alberta signed an Agreement in Principle called "Moving Forward on Early Learning and Child Care." The agreement paves the way for $70.4 million in new money to flow to Alberta to fund child care in 2005, approximately $65.7 million in 2006/07, $116.8 million in 2007/08, $117.3 million in 2008/09 and $117.9 million in 2009/10.

Urban children are more likely to be enrolled in While the above information relates to children under age six, Alberta municipalities may provide support support or or subsidy subsidy to to children children in in low-income low-income families who are between the ages of six and twelve, Approximately 2,100 Edmonton children in low-a income families receive municipal subsidy for out of school care per month

0

0

Page 30

0

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 Si

I

Federal investment in pre-school child ..care in Alberta will free up dollars currently invested by Alberta in the child care program.

In Alberta, the provincial government assumed responsibility for subsidies for child care for lowincome families with children of pre-school age.

Municipalities continue to provide subsidies for outof-school care for school age children where this is a municipal priority, Alberta cities are attempting to influence the Government of Alberta to increase funding for care for school age children. Federal National Child Care program dollars flowing to Alberta for pre-school age children, free up provincial dollars already invested, Extending the program to school age children (age 6-12) would not have a major impact on the federal funding if the same criteria are used for program access. Combined, the cities of Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer invest approximately $10 million per year on out-of-school care. oE 2001 fnlh

0

2081

am

u 2=0

M

2M

e

2078

2109

2100

2122

,n

Culture Culture and the arts are vital integral parts of society. Supportfor the arts,for all Edmontonians regardless of income or background, could offer creative ways to bring diverse elements of our society together.

The arts and culture are a vital, creative part of the community and play a major role in keeping our quality of life high.

Total government spending (nationally) on culture has been increasing over time and now totals over $7 billion per year. Per capita government spending on culture in Alberta was $160 in 2002-03 (composed of $51 federal, $56 provincial and $53 municipal).

This was the lowest total per capita spending of the provinces primarily because of lower provincial spending. Despite this, the arts sector in Alberta added over $150 million to the GPP (Gross Provincial Product) and employed more than 3,500 Albertans full-time.

Edmonton City Council's Special Initiative on Edmonton Arts projects an enhanced profile for the arts community through a partnership with the City of Edmonton. City Council will support the Edmonton Arts Council and help develop an overall

vision for the arts community.

!Financial

0Alociion for

$5.6million

Subsides

$64million $.67million

$44million $ .44million

A n

, _ 203.20

$218.18

$2320

$23500

$225.00

The Government of Alberta has expanded its role in assessing child-care centres to include out-of-school care centres. The City of Edmonton will examine its role in the assessment of out-of-school care centres and determine if it should remain in the assessment business or leave this to the provincial government,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

The arts will be better represented in Edmonton promotional materials and efforts. An "arts zone" will be considered for the 118 Avenue area as part of neighbourhood revitalization. The City will also support cultural and arts festivals, develop new facilities in high priority areas and plan for maintenance and sustainability of major downtown arts facilities.

The City of Edmonton spending on culture has been increasing steadily over the last five years to where it now totals over $36 million. Between 2001 and 2005 Edmonton's municipal expenditures on culture increased by almost 32 per cent.

Page 31

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 Expenditures on Culture c City of Edmonton ($1300'8)

$oi5 :0 6 0 539,758

$40,000

. $38,770

$33 9c5

$35,000

$32,187 $30,169

$30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 2001

2002

2003

.

. 2004

.

2005 â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘

Source: City of Edmonton 'Does not include capital expenditure's

Recreation and Leisure The need for health-giving and fulfilling leisure activities is more and more important as we are becoming increasingly obese. Leisure activities and opportunities to enjoy nature play an important preventive role in relation to health and social issues especially in light of the increased pressures on the health and social support systems.

Alberta Community Development recently published the results of the 2004 Alberta Recreation Survey.

3,217 Alberta Households completed the survey.

28.2% of these were in Edmonton. In terms of exercise oriented recreation, Edmontonians and Albertans as a whole varied little in their preferences. As well, there were only small differences in Edmontonians and all Albertans with regard to creative/cultural activities. The largest difference was in visiting museums or art galleries.

Social Passive activities had the largest differences

especially with regard to picnicking in the countryside.

Council's Special Initiatives on Sports, Recreation Opportunities and Capital Health Partnership supports the Active Edmonton program and implementation of plans for improved facilities, trails and parks to encourage Edmontonians to be active, stay fit and healthy and help keep Edmonton an attractive City.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Ten Most Popular Exercise Oriented Activities Participating Households 2004(%) Edmonton Alberta Activity Walking for Pleasure 93.4% 93.0% Bicycling 56.9% 56% Swimming 55.9% 54.1% _pools) Golf 38.6% 44.9% Aerobics/Fitness/Aquasiz 45.9% 43.9% eNoga Weight Training 35.2% 36.1% Jogging/Running 36.1% 35.6% Swimming 31.5% 32.6% (lakes, rivers, ponds) Ice Skating 33.1% 29.6% In-line skating 18.6% 20.9%

Five Most Popular Creative/Cultural Activities Participatbig Households % Activity Edmonton Alberta Attending a fair or 64.1% 56.7% festival Doing a craft or 62.5% 63.8% hobby Attending a 58.8% 60.0% sports event as spectator Visiting a museum, art 54.4% 50.9% , gallery Attending live theatre 53.5% 51.9%

Five Most Popular Social/Passive Activities

Participating Households % Activi Gardening Playing video, computer or electronic games Attending educational courses Picnickin within a ci Picnicking (in the count side

Edmonton

Alberta

71.6% 51.3%

72.1% 53.0%

45.8%

43.3%

38.8% 28.3%

38.0% 37.3%

Page 32

0 1

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 2004

2003

Safety

number

Cause Deliberately Set

*

0 S

The provincial government's stated intention to assume responsibility for ground ambulance service across Alberta, including in Edmonton, has been temporarilypostponed beyond 2005. Funding for this service was to be channelled through the regional health authorities, and through the Capital Health Authority for the Edmonton region.

The transfer would have enabled the City of Edmonton to utilize the $25 million savings in other priority areas.

0realized

0

The province stated that the costs were more than anticipated. Ambulance transfer will not happen in 2005 but may occur later in the forecast period.

The provincial government is giving consideration to providing grants to municipalities in lieu of the ambulance "takeover". This may be in the order of the amount initially considered for ambulance funding.

_ *

In Edmonton, seniors are three times as likely to use emergency medical services as the general

_

number

cooking oil, grease,wax

62

55

Deliberately set

grea,

Orhe

Cause Overheated

g s1 58 Smoker's Materials

Lwax

52

Combustible Placed too Close toHeat

45

Smokers Material

Combustible

placed toolose to

heat Ignorance of

45

37 Mechanical/! electrical

hazard

failure/malfunction

15

-unclassitied

31

With respect to crime, overall, the trend over the past several years has been toward fewer crimes with lower rates of crime per population. Generally speaking, Edmonton is a safer city than it was several years ago. Violent crime in Edmonton has been decreasing despite a small number of high profile violent crimes. In 1998, there were 7,651

violent crimes in the City of Edmonton. By 2004, despite a larger population there were only 6,718

population. Those 85 years and older have ambulance utilization rates seven times higher than does the general population. Large increases in the senior population will likely occur in the older, central areas of the city. A high proportion of this population will be women living alone.

violent crimes in the city. As a rate per 1,000 12.1/1,000 population this decreased from population in 1998 to 9.5/1,000 in 2004. Violent crime also decreased a further 6% during the first half of 2005, continuing the downward trend.

In 2004, there were 7,620 responses to fire alarms,

Violent Crime Ratesper 1,000 Population

structural fires and non-structural fires. This is a 3%

dmonton

increase over the previous year when there were

14..

7,392 responses.

12

The number of fires in the City of Edmonton has varied little over the past three years. 1,635 structural fires occurred in 2003, and 1523 in 2004.

The leading causes of residential fires are relatively

.

0.6

110

111 10

e

9 6 4

stable. The five most common causes of residential

fires, where there were investigations as to cause, are listed in the following table.

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Soure: EdmontonPoliceService .

Child abuse reports have decreased dramatically (although not child welfare cases). In 1998, there were 440 child abuse cases referred to Edmonton Police Service. By 2004, the number of incidents had declined by over 44% to only 246. As a rate per

0

*Prepared

by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 33

IU

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

1,000 population the rate declined from 0.69/1,000 population in 1998 to 0.35/1,000 in 2004.

,

Property Crimes Edmonton 60,00 0

Child Abuse Reports to Edmonton Police Service

54,898

.

\><.

7

50so,ooo

40,000

41,045

,

40,436

0

600 i

440

5So

"

:'

S

"

39

40036

220+';

...

+

'

++"i+

30,000

,000 oo 10,000

293 2246

300

1998

200

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

PoliceService Source:Edmonton

100 0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: EdmontonPoliceService

Crimes committed by young people have also dramatically decreased over the period 1998 to 2004. In 1998, youths aged twelve to seventeen committed 7,111 crimes and by 2004 this had decreased to 5,458, a decrease of over 23% during the period. As a rate per 1,000 population (aged ten to nineteen), the decrease is also dramatic as it declined from 83.2 per 1,000 to 61.5 per 1,000. A further decrease is shown for the first half of 2005, a 23% decrease from the same period in the previous year. Violent crime by youth decreased by 21% during the first half of 2005, when compared with the first half of 2004.

Property crime, on the other hand, has increased in Edmonton over the same period of time. Property crime increased from 40,436 incidents in 1998 to 54,898 incidents in 2004, an increase of 36%.

Disputes among neighbours that are reported to

Police, an indicator of social cohesion, are down over this period. There were 760 reports in 1998.

The number of reports had decreased almost every year to 575 in 2004. Edmonton's population was slightly more stable in 2001 than it was in 1996. In 2001, approximately 19.3% of Edmontonians had a different address than the previous year in contrast to 20.4% in 1996. In 2001, 50.4% of Edmontonians lived at a different address than they had five years previously compared to 51.0% in 1996.

0

Edmonton City Council's Special initiative on Neighbourhood Revitalization includes renewal of physical infrastructure, community engagement, alternative mobility modes, and targets areas' social, recreational, economic and environmental concern using a community building model.

0

Use of drugs is a problem in many of Canada's cities. A 1997 survey of 200 senior elected

0 0

However, for the first half of 2005 property crime is

municipal officials, police representatives, First

down 4% over the same period in 2004. It is too early to determine whether the tide is changing.

Nations Tribal Council members and representatives of the federal-provincial-territorial working group on crime prevention, perceived drug offences to be the most serious crime and disorder problem in their of Canadian communities. The Federation Municipalities initiated a series of pilot projects across Canada to look at developing municipal drug strategies.

In Edmonton, charges by Police for violations of the federal Controlled Substance Act have been relatively stable.

September by: City 2005 Forecast Committee,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

0

0

I

0

0 0

Page 34

0Pr 0 0

Page 34

0

0

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010 Violations of Federal Controlled Subistance Act .

Edmonton 2200

2:000 1,800

1,656

1.693

1,692

1,Q66

1,400 0

1,20 1,000

400 200

S1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source:Edmonton PoliceServiee

The range in number of charges varied slightly from a high of 1,693 (in 2002) to a low of 1,478 (in 2001). For the first half of 2005, drug charges had decreased by 17% when compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

Nevertheless, drugs are seen by many in our community as potentially affecting a significant group of Edmontonians, especially youth and being

a cause of related crime.

In November 2003, then Mayor Bill Smith met with representatives from a number of local organizations involved in prevention, treatment and enforcement aspects of illicit drugs. These early workshops were held with expert representatives from provincial, municipal, school Board, Health Authority and voluntary organizations to identify the extent of the problem of illicit drugs being used in Edmonton, and impacts of drug abuse. Workshop participants agreed that greater collaboration could be achieved between their respective organizations and that a coordinated Community Drug Strategy that targeted young people (to 24 years of age) with emphasis on The alcohol and illicit drugs was needed. coordinated drug strategy is tentatively to be completed in fall of 2005 with implementation beginning later in the year. Edmonton City Council, as part of its special initiative "Mayor's Drug Strategy," will participate in developing a comprehensive and coordinated drug strategy and implementation plan with other community partners (AADAC, Health Canada, Alberta Learning, Edmonton Public Schools, Edmonton Catholic Schools, and Edmonton Police Service).

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

0

Page 35

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry Employment by Industry - Edmonton C.M.A. (thousand) Industry Total

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

431

431

424

431

444

444

468

476

483

491

507

523

540

556

81

.83

81

84

94

92

97

101

111

101

107

120

121

127

Agriculture

3

3

4

3

9

6

8

8

7

5

2

3

5

5

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas

8

8

7

9

11

12

14

15

10

10

11

11

13

12

Utilities

Goods-Producing Sector

4

6

6

5

4

5

3

3

3

5

4

5

5

6

Construction

30

29

27

26

28

32

27

31

36

35

42

46

48

52

Manufacturing

35

38

37

41

42

37

45

44

56

46

48

55

49

52

Services-Producing Sector

350

348

343

347

350

352

371

375

372

390

400

403

419

430

Trade

79

74

74

76

76

75

78

76

76

85

84

81

87

89

Transportation and Warehousing Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

23

22

21

21

23

25

26

25

25

31

31

28

31

30

29

30

28

27

27

24

27

30

28

29

31

31

27

31

19

20

22

26

22

26

29

30

33

33

35

37

36

37

11

13

13

11

15

15

16

17

16

16

13

18

24

20

36

37

36

31

34

31

33

30

37

35

43

41

39

41

Health Care and Social Assistance

49

46

44

49

45

50

48

54

53

52

53

55

54

61

Information, Culture and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services

19

19

19

23

25

23

21

28

22

21

21

22

22

25

27

28

28

27

29

30

32

31

29

35

36

36

37

40

Other Services Public Administration

22 38

23 37

25 33

23 33

26 28

25 29

31 30

28 27

26 27

28 26

25 29

25 29

29 33

25 31

Business; building and other support services Educational Services

Prepared by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, February 2005 Source: Statistics Canada

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 36

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

APPENDIX HI - Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry Real Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices by Industry, Edmonton C.M.A.(1) Millions of Chained (1997) Dollars (2) ($Millions) Industry Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas Utilities Construction Manufacturing Total Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Renting & Leasing and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Public Administration Other Services GDP at Basic Prices Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies GDP at Market Prices Edmonton Growth Rate (%) Alberta Growth Rate (%)

1992 2,581 966 1,580 2,660 2,467 4,T79 737 1,497 1,754 235 688 1,982 715

1993 2,646 944 1,711 2,804 2,655 4,810 862 1,399 1,655 254 737 1,904 778

1994 3,254 932 1,651 3,374 2,966 4,945 1,078 1,248 1,855 296 686 1,997 689

1995 5,601 808 1,682 3,337 2,782 5,131 980 1,359 1,654 291 763 1,767 769

1996 4,780 995 1,913 3,254 2,816 4,946 1,080 1,272 1,694 276 781 1,759 722

1997 5,740 885 2,012 4,037 3,376 5,667 1,380 1,375 1,506 252 815 1,847 2,704

1998 6,018 870 2,351 3,857 3,322 6,391 1,467 1,312 1,657 277 794 1,754 2,584

1999 5,076 908 2,398 4,466 3,221 5,592 1,576 .1,525 1,674 248 778 1,993 2,634

2000 4,662 1,136 2,537 4,315 3,632 6,362 1,579 1,568 1,685 236 913 2,050 3,057

2001 3,326 862 3,234 4,205 3,763 6,658 1,653 1,797 1,888 238 983 2,197 2,867

2002 3,476 745 3,262 4,507 4,032 7,654 1,911 1,784 2,032 251 1,009 2,194 2,845

2003 4,622 962 3,285 4,260 4,356 7,599 1,977 1,727 2,049 249 1,011 2,375 3,335

22,639

23,159

24,971

26,924

26,288

31,596

32,654

32,090

33,731

33,671

35,703

37,806

1,585

2,084

1,998

2,423

2,366

1,580

1,306

1,284

1,349

673

714

756

24,224

25,243

26,968

29,347

28,654

33,176

33,960

33,373

35,080

34,345

36,417

38,562

1.8 0.9

4.2 7.2

6.8 6.2

8.8 3.1

(2.4) 2.0

15.8 6.8

2.4 5.3

(1.7) 1.4

5.1 6.1

(2.1) 1.6

6.0 2.4

5.9 2.7

Prepared by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, February 2005 Source: Statistics Canada Notes: (1) GDP at Market Prices is obtained by adding Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies to GDP at Basic Prices.

(2) Preliminary Estimates - Subject to Revision

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

Page 37

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • lb • • • lb lb • • • • • • • • • • • • Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

Appendix III Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area City

Primary Highway

0 U - - - - -

stt

• • r••■•

gal

11

ter

41;

goon CoUnty

"

Secondary Highway

Accord

Town

•

■■■•

Railway

Village

County Boundary

Urban Service Area Boundary

I

Fort

Elstaluittihewan

5 ,r-

StthcOna-

5T.—; CzsC.,

;

C ounty

Lee

A

6

r-

tti •

...a9P2tor :Await

15Eloreptal

•1

County

!

.1

L.r 0_ -

on

.

dmotrton

_.

— I— •

10 kilometres

11.0.1.1.0 NC COILONIONT

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 2005

Page 38

I

2

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2005 - 2010

MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST COMMITTEE Jong Huang (Chairperson) Chief Economist Planning and Development Department

K.L. Siu Director, Infrastructure Planning Asset Management & Public Works Department

Paul Tsounis Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

Stan Dilworth City Assessor Planning and Development Department

Dana Oikawa Manager, Economic and Load Forecasting EPCOR Corporate

Linda Chan Manager, Capital-Revenues and Rates EPCOR Water Services

Terry Dew Director, Knowledge Management Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

Steven Friedenthal Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee Director, Evaluation & Monitoring

Angela Muhlenfeld Management Science Analyst

Transportation and Streets Department

Edmonton Police Services

Robert Higgins Planner II Planning & Development Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Community Services Department

* *

Nila Chowdhury Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Christina Ionescu Economist Corporate Services Department

* *

Gord Dodd Director, Fleet Support Asset Management and Public Works

*

S For more economic information, please contact: Jong Huang

(780) 496-6068

jong.huang@edmonton.ca

Paul Tsounis

(780) 496-6070

paul.tsounis@edmonton.ca

For more social information, please contact: Steven Friedenthal

(780) 496-4782

Steve.Friedenthal@edmonton.ca

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 2005

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