Edmonton (Alta.) - 2001-2007 - Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006-2011 (2006-04)

Edmonton Socio-Economic

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EDMONTON SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2006 - 2011

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee

April 2006

Copyright Q 2006 by the City of Edmonton c/o: 3rd Floor, City Hall Sir Winston Churchill Square Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in good faith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liability from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ..........................................

SOCIAL OUTLOOK ................................................

1 1 2

OF THE OUTLOOK......2 IMPLICATIONS B USINESS SECTOR................................................2 GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR ............

FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS ................................

2 3

INTRODUCTION ................................................. 4 PART 1: EDMONTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ..............................................................

4Safety

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS .................. 4 EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING EDMONTON'S

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK .........................

Industry ............................................................

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APPENDIX H - Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry .............................................

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7 United States/CanadianEconomic Growth ......

Implicationsfor the Edmonton Economy..........8 EDMONTON'S ECONOMIC FORECAST.........9

Economic Growth Rate...............................9..... 9 Demographics................................................

10 Labour M arket ................................................ 11 Housing Market..............................................12 Prices..............................................................16 ...... 17 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS...

Upside Risks to the Outlook...........................17 Downside Risks to the Outlook.......................17

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KEY SOCIAL ISSUES......................................21 Social Implications of DemographicChange..21 Diversity ......................................................... 22 Familiesand Children....................................25 Health.............................................................26 Seniors............................................................29 Education ....................................................... 30 0 Poverty.............................................................32 .ChildCare........................33 Chid Care ....................................................... 33 Culture.............................................................34 and Leisure ................................ 35 Recreation 36 ...................................

36 Safe ty .....................................

Revitalization..................................................38 Drug Use Prevention......................................38

APPENDIX I5 ECONOMY ............................................................ by Employment by Edmonton Employment I - Edmonton Enery Mrkes.....................APPENDIX

Energy Markets ................................................. 5 United States/Canadian Economic Growth ......

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APPENDIX III - Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area...................42 MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST COM M ITTEE ......................................................

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 0migration Teconomic

SU VMMARY EXECUTIVE A S S

This report is prepared primarily for use as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's corporate and departmental business bsies nddearmeta crprae 0dmntn' Plan, Capital Priorities the City's plans and budgets, and the City's Long Range Financial Plan.

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Economic Outlook Economic Growth Growth in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2006, down slightly from 3.5% in 2005, and average a healthy 3% per year for the remainder of the forecast period, as increased investment in energy related projects in the Edmonton region and northern Alberta will help boost non-residential construction Edmonton CMA now has The activity.

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will be hampered somewhat by strong activity in British Columbia as they prepare for the 2010 Olympics.

Labour Market Employment growth in the Edmonton CMA is (8,200 persons) in 2006 expected to rebound to 1.5% expected to rebound to 1.5% (8,200 persons) in 2006 from its drop of 1.4% (8,000 persons) in 2005, and average 1.2% per year for the remainder of the forecast period. The drop in the total number of people employed in 2005 was due to younger aged persons leaving the labour force for economic reasons (i.e. educational pursuits), and also due to tight labour market conditions in the skilled labour market, where labour demand was greater than available labour supply, which made it difficult for employers to fill job vacancies last year.

Housing Market Housing starts in the Edmonton CMA are expected to fall from 13,294 units in 2005 to 12,500 units in

approximately $30 billion of proposed construction

2006. The slight drop in housing starts will come as

projects over the next 10 years - 25% of the provincial total. Economic growth will be constrained from reaching growth levels above 3% due to tight labour market conditions, and rising interest rates which will affect residential construction and consumer spending.

a result of higher home carrying costs brought on by higher interest rates and higher home heating costs, and by a shortage of labour in the residential construction market. However, strong economic conditions will keep annual average housing starts in the Edmonton CMA at a respectable 10,000 per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

region's The most significant influence on the economic prosperity is its wealth of natural resources (oil, gas and the oil sands). The contribution of the energy industry to the Edmonton region is even more significant if oil prices continue to rise in response to any sign of a shortage of energy supply to meet world demand as shown recently.

0 Demographics The Edmonton CMA population is expected to reach 1,029,000 in 2006, and increase by 65,000 to a level of 1,094,000 by 2011, while the city of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 44,000 to a level of 765,000 by 2011. Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is now expected to average 7,500 to 8,000 per year between 2006 to 2011 due to increased inflow of inter-provincial migrants from eastern Canada. Any further increases in net

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Prices The inflation rate is expected to increase 2.5% in 2006 on continued strength in energy prices and further increases in wage settlements, which will translate into higher wage costs for businesses, and higher prices for consumers. Higher interest rates, along with a slight moderation in energy prices, will keep the inflation rate to an average of 2% per year between 2008 and 2011.

The non-residential price index is expected to increase by 6.4% in 2006 and a further 6% in 2007 on the heels of higher contractors selling prices for non-residential construction, due to tight labour market conditions, and also due to higher commodity prices, which will keep the cost of construction materials high.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 IMPLICATIONS OF THE

Social Outlook The anticipated increase in Edmonton's population in the forecast period will be centred around the mature and elderly segments of the population, with the number of people over the age of 40 expected to increase by 37,800 compared with an increase of only 14,600 for those below 40. This increase in the aging population could increase the demand for services such as health care, appropriate fitness programs and senior's housing.

At the other end of the population spectrum, the number of persons in the 10-19 age category will fall by 5,900 persons. This decline in the number of youths may begin to have implications for schools, including post-secondary education institutions, and other youth focussed services, Alleviating some of the pressures associated with an aging population in Edmonton will be the continued strength in employment growth, which should translate into continued strength in household incomes. Edmonton recorded a median household income of $67,325 in 2002 - the fourth highest among Canadian CMAs. The positive economic outlook for Edmonton will also result in positive net-migration levels, with migrants from other countries helping contribute to Edmonton's diverse social fabric.

OUTLOOK Business Sector Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: * slightly higher population growth, * continued spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta, * a large supply of relatively low-cost downtown office space, * moderate inflation, and * a strong housing market.

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However, during the same period Edmonton businesses must adjust to: * shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations, * increased house prices and rental rates, * increased security and insurance costs as a result of increased concerns over terrorist activities, and higher energy costs. higher energy costs.

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Government and the Public Sector Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: * continued strong economic growth in the province, * increased assessment base, and * increased spending on education and health care

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by the provincial government. *

infrastructure grant from the Alberta government and gasoline tax rebates from the federal government.

However,

over the same period Edmonton's

government and public sector must deal with:

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Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

continued municipal infrastructure shortfalls, even after receiving the infrastructure grant and the gasoline tax rebate. continued excess supply of space and a slower increase in real estate prices in the downtown non-residential markets,

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

* increased demand for municipal services as a * result of growth pressures, e.g. roadways, transit, parkland, etc., * continued demand for government services in the areas of health, education and infrastructure as a result of the aging population and positive net migration, * the possibility of the number of potential retirees exceeding the number of first-time labour market entrants, * a shortage of affordable housing, and * homelessness.

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Families and Individuals Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * increased government spending on health and education, and * increased employment and income opportunities well as higher after-tax incomes despite tempering by high energy prices.

However, Edmontonians must also deal with: * a continuing wide gap between the haves and have-nots in our society.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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, - Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 INTRODUCTION This report provides an economic and social analysis of the current and future changes in the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan

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Area (CMA - see map in Appendix III) for the years

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2006 to 2011. The outlook is used as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's 20072007 plans, business departmental 2009 departmental operating budgets, the 2007-11 Capital Priorities Plan, and the 2007-2016 Long Range Financial Plan. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses use the forecast for planning purposes.

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EdIonton's Labour Market

The City Forecast Committee monitors economic and social activities/trends throughout the year. The Committee prepares an outlook report semiannually, in the spring and in the fall.

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PART 1: EDMONTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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Recent Economic Developments The Edmonton CMA has been one of the fastest growing economies in Canada over the past several years, due largely to strong infrastructure and

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institutional investments, and most importantly, a

surge in energy investments, particularly in oil sands developments in northern Alberta. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, oil

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sands investment in Alberta has increased from an

estimated $1.3 billion in 1996 to an estimated $8.5 billion in 2005, on the heels of rising energy prices and lower royalty rates that were introduced by the government of Alberta in the late 1990's. As a

result, a total of 101,000 employment positions, or 11,000 per year, have been created in the Edmonton CMA since the start of the oil sands boom in 1996.

Strong employment growth and low interest rates also strengthened consumer spending, which in turn fuelled strong residential construction activity which added a total of 85,000 new homes in the Edmonton region since 1996.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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As a result, total gross domestic product (GDP) in the Edmonton region increased by 27% since 1996, or an annual average economic growth rate of 3.5%, led by strong growth in the trade, manufacturing and finance, insurance and real estate sectors. Low oil prices in 1999 led to a retraction in economic activity in Edmonton that year, while softer Page

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 employment growth in the goods producing sector (manufacturing, construction, oil and gas sectors) softened consumer spending and kept economic growth at 2.1% in 2003. A strong rebound in construction and manufacturing employment, along with strength in consumer spending and economic spin-offs from investment in northern Alberta, gave Edmonton an estimated economic growth rate of 4.8% in 2004.

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However, keeping economic growth in respectable

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territory in 2005 was a stronger than expected residential construction market, which saw total housing starts in the Edmonton region reach over

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result, the total number of those employed fell in Edmonton in 2005, despite a growing number of jobs and career opportunities in the region. As a result, economic growth softened slightly to an estimated 3.5%. In addition to weaker employment, skyrocketing energy prices, due to strong global demand and hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which slammed into the southeast United States during the late summer months in 2005, contributed to higher gasoline prices and home heating costs, which dampened consumer spending and increased costs during the second half of 2005.

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recent economic boom, and will

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Energy Markets Continued strength in oil and naturalgas prices, due to strong global demand fundamentals and

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However, the strong economic conditions in the Edmonton region have put some pressures on Edmonton's labour market. After adding an explosive 16,000 new employment positions per year between 2001 and 2004 (3% growth rate per year), Edmonton's labour market hit full capacity in 2005, particularly in job markets requiring skilled labour, which made it difficult for employers to fill job vacancies. In addition, strong economic conditions lured younger aged people away from the labour force to pursue additional education, which further tightened labour market conditions. As a Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

energy related

will grow in the Edmonton region. Oil prices are expected to average $57 US per barrel per year, while naturalgas prices are expected to average $8 per gigajoule (GJ) per year. However, with higher energy prices, comes higher gasoline and home heating costs, which could dampen consumer spending.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

World Oil Prices World Oil Prices

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Helped by the release of strategic reserves by the U.S. government and International Energy Agency (IEA)members, world oil prices dropped back from their post-Katrina highs near $70 US per barrel, with the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

averaging between US$58 and US$60 over the last two months of 2005. Nevertheless, the lack of global supply flexibility and the ever-present prospect of further supply disruptions made for an extremely jittery market. A dispute between Russia and the Ukraine over natural gas pricing, a major-." escalation in tensions over the Iranian nuclear program, and supply disruptions in Nigeria arising from increased tribal conflict pushed daily WTI prices back up over $70 US per barrel toward the end of April.

While the relatively warm winter and historically high product prices should ease global demand growth, the development of new, reliable production capacity will take time. The Russian government's increasing taxation and control of its upstream oil industry, formerly regarded as the engine of nonOPEC production, is of particular note here, as recent government reports anticipate annual crude oil production to grow by only 1% or 2% in the coming years, versus the 9% to 11% growth seen from 2002 to 2004. However, when combined with the gradual recovery in the United States Gulf of Mexico production - where 25% of the crude oil capacity remains shut-in - and the impact of renewed investment in OPEC facilities, this should serve to stabilize prices over time, albeit at levels well above historical norms. Thus, the forecast calls

for the WTI price to average above $60 US per barrel in 2006 and 2007, before falling back to the $51 US to $53 range by 2010.

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North American Gas Prices

0 At the outset of the winter of 2005-06, North American natural gas markets were very tight and anxious. Fifty-five percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production, representing 10% of the total United States lower-48 production, remained shut-in due to Storage levels were about hurricane damage. average and the prospect of a long, cold winter drove United States natural gas prices up to record levels. Canadian gas prices, with the appreciating dollar, matched their previous highs, with the AECO price averaging $12.54 per GJ in November 2005.

However, by January, a much warmer than normal winter - January was 27% warmer than normal in the United States - and a significant recovery in Gulf gas production allowed storage volumes to be rebuilt to a safe level for the remaining winter weeks, prompting continental gas prices to fall sharply to pre-Katrina values.

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Even with the eventual return of the remaining shutin Gulf coast gas production, market conditions are sufficiently tight and concerns remain that another hotter than normal summer or punishing hurricane season could push prices sharply higher.

Consequently, the forecast calls for the AECO gas price to average $9.30 per GJ in 2006, easing

gradually to $8.15 in 2008. Beyond that, the rapid development of such unconventional sources of supply as liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and coalbed methane and, later still, the Arctic gas reserves are expected to reduce prices further, to the $7 to $8 range, for the remainder of the forecast period.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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its historical lows of 1% in 2003 to its current level of 4.5%. The new Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bemrnanke, who replaced Alan Greenspan earlier this year, has hinted at further rate increases in 2006 in response to continued strength in energy prices, which could feed into inflation.

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United States/Canadian Economic Growth

Since interest rates are expected to increase, and energy prices are expected to remain strong, consumer spending in the United States, which represents approximately two-thirds of the economy, is expected to soften in 2006, which will bring growth down slightly to 3.2%. Rising interest rates in 2006 will have a dampening effect on business investment in 2007, which will bring economic growth down further to 2.8%, before settling at an annual average of 3% per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

Edmonton home owners have benefited from very low interest rates over the past few years, which have resulted in a very strong housing market and strong consumer spending. However, interest rates have been increasing, as strong economic growth

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in the United States in the past couple of years has resulted in higher energy prices and strong demand

for Canadian exports, which have strengthened the Canadian economy. As such, the Bank of Canada is expected to continue to increase interest rates in 2006 to prevent inflationary pressures in the economy, which could soften residential construction in the Edmonton market, and may slow down consumer spending.

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The United States economy overcame many hurdles in 2005 and posted a respectable 3.5% economic growth rate, lower than the 4.2% growth rate achieved in 2004, but higher than the 2.7% growth rate in 2003. According to the Conference Board of Canada, last fall's hurricanes cost the United States 300,000 jobs and approximately $100 billion in property damage, which resulted in higher energy prices and a further deterioration of the trade deficit.

However, despite these hurdles, the United States economy was buoyed by growth in employment, a 3.6% increase in consumer spending and a 6% increase in business investment.

0 In response to strong economic growth over the past few years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Board in the United States has raised its federal funds borrowing rate Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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Strong economic growth in the United States over the past few years has also had an impact on the Canadian economy. Rising energy demand in the United States in response to strong economic conditions has contributed to stronger world energy prices, which has helped the Canadian export market and has contributed to robust growth in energy producing provinces, primarily in western Canada.

However, high energy prices and a strong economy has pushed up the value of Canadian dollar, with the exchange rate rising to an annual average of $0.83 US in 2005, up substantially from its level of $0.71 US in 2003. The strong ascent of the Canadian dollar has had a negative impact on the nation's nonenergy export market and its manufacturing sector, where employment has fallen by 8.2% since the end of 2002 - the same time when the Canadian dollar Page

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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began its appreciation. As a result of these factors, the Canadian economy grew by a respectable 2.9% in 2005, the same growth rate that was achieved in

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As with the case in the United States, the Bank of Canada also raised interest rates in response to strong economic conditions in 2005. The average annual prime lending rate reached 4.4% in 2005, up from 4% in 2004, and further rate increases are

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hinted by the Bank of Canada for the remainder of 2006 as the economy approaches full capacity,

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which could trigger inflation. However, continued strength in the Canadian dollar may further weaken its non-energy manufacturing base and impact its non-energy exports, which may prohibit the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates too aggressively

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in 2006. Also compounding the problem could be a

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softer United States economy, which may demand less non-energy related goods and services from Canada. As such, it is expected that the average

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annual prime lending rate in Canada will reach 5.6% in 2006, as compared to 4.4% in 2005, but will settle

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comfortably to an annual average of 5% per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

A softening United States economy, rising interest rates, a strong exchange rate and continued strength

in energy prices will be balanced off with strong energy sector investment and solid energy exports, which will increase Canadian economic growth to 3.1% in 2006, before settling down to an annual average of 2.9% for the remainder of the forecast

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Implications for the Edmonton Economy

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strength in investment activity in and around the Edmonton area; higher energy prices will keep the Canadian dollar strong, which may allocate much needed from weaker economic markets in eastern Canada to the energy rich economies of western Canada; and higher energy prices will entail higher gasoline and home heating costs, which may dampen consumer spending.

City Forecast Committee, April by:2006 Prepared April2006 Prepared by: Cit Forecast Commrttee,

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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Edmonton's Economic Forecast

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The Edmonton regional economy is estimated to have grown 3.5% in 2005, down from 4.8% in 2004, on the heels of weaker employment growth brought on by tight labour market conditions.

Growth is expected to reach 3.2% in 2006 and a further 3% in 2007 and average 2.9% over the' 2008-2011 period on the heels of strong investment activity in and aroundthe Edmonton region, and a rebound in the number of people employed.

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Growth in the Edmonton CMA is expected to improve to 3.2% and grow by a further 3% in 2007, and average a healthy 2.9% for the remainder of the forecast period, as increased investment in energy related projects in the Edmonton region and northern Alberta will help boost non-residential construction activity. Since December 2005, four new oil sands upgraders/refineries totalling approximately $25 to

The Major Projects List, published by Alberta Economic Development, shows that all proposed, and under recently completed announced, construction projects in Alberta total a record $120 billion, with the Fort McMurray (Wood BuffaloCold Lake) area holding the largest proportion with 55%, or $63 billion, followed by the Edmonton

$30 billion have been announced or proposed by

region with 25%, or $30 billion, and Calgary with

various companies to begin construction in the Edmonton region over the next 3 to 5 years (see below for further information). In addition, several new pipelines will be built between Edmonton and Fort McMurray, and Edmonton and the west coast, totalling approximately $4 billion to ship crude oil and petroleum products to new markets in western United States, and overseas to China. Increased netmigration of those aged 20 to 35 from eastern Canada will help ease tightness in labour markets in the forecast period as weak economic conditions in Ontario, brought on by a strong Canadian dollar and high energy prices, will help bring much needed skilled labour to Edmonton's thriving energy and infrastructure markets.

0 Despite all these announcements, economic growth in the forecast period will struggle to reach levels above 3% due to continued tightness in labour markets, and weaker consumer spending brought on by higher interest rates and higher energy prices, which will also soften residential construction activity. Strong economic conditions in British Columbia as they prepare for the 2010 Olympics will keep people from moving into Alberta, and as such, will keep net migration growth at bay in the Edmonton region.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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dmionton Economic Growth (PlIent Chane inRe I(GDP)

13%, or $16 billion. What is interesting is that Edmonton's share of the overall total proposed or announced investment in Alberta has increased from 10% to 13% in early 2005 to its current proportion of 25%.

The following projects will have a significant impact on the Edmonton economy over the next five years: Oil, Gas and Oilsands * $800 million for 'Alberta Heartland' Bitumen upgrader project by BA Energy Inc. in Strathcona County. *

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$2 billion for phases 2 and 3 for the 'Alberta Heartland' Bitumen upgrader project by BA Energy Inc. in Strathcona County. $2.7 billion for the Scotford upgrader expansion by Shell Canada.

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$2.8 billion for the 'Northern Lights' upgrader by Synenco Energy. $1.6 billion for an upgrader by Northwest Upgrading Inc.

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$3.2 billion for phases 2 and 3 for the upgrader by Northwest Upgrading Inc. Page

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An upgrader by Petro-Canada (unknown cost estimate at this time).

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$142 million for the Mazankowski Heart Institute by Capital Health.

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$7 to $8.5 billion upgrader being proposed

by Alberta Energy and a group of large oil companies.

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$192 million for the North Treatment Centre at the Royal Alexandra Hospital by Capital Health.

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$5 billion upgrader by Total Inc.

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$165 million for the Health Innovation Research Centre by the University of Research Centre by the University of Alberta.

* $1.2 billion for conversion to upgrade bitumen by Petro-Canada Oil.

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The results of the 2005 City of Edmonton civic

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$70 million for a learning centre NorQuest College.

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$5.6 billion for various new pipelines between Edmonton and Fort McMurray, and Edmonton and the west coast.

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$250 million for sulphur reduction plants in Strathcona County by Petro-Canada.

Demographics

$250 million for a Sulphur Reduction plant in Strathcona County by Imperial Oil Limited.

census show that the City of Edmonton's population as of April 1, 2005 was 712,391 - a 7% increase from the last official population figure of 666,104 collected in the 2001 federal census. Other significant changes to Edmonton's demographic profile include a reduction of the level of Edmonton

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* $200 million for sulphur reduction plants in Strathcona County by Shell Canada. *

$200 million for a crude oil storage terminal in Strathcona County by Terasen Pipelines Inc.

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$160 million for a hydrogen plant for PetroCanada's refinery feed conversion project

by Air Products Canada Ltd.

Commercial/Retail/Residential *

$95 million for the Citadel Village seniors health care complex in St. Albert.

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$600 million for the Heritage Mall redevelopment to the 'Century Park' mixed use development,

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$135 million for the Centre in the Park retail/commercial development in Strathcona County by various developers,

Infrastructure * $493 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension in southeast Edmonton by Alberta Transportation. *

$600 million to extend the LRT to Heritage Mall

CMA net migration, which, according to Statistics Canada, reached 5,700 in 2003 and 5,800 in 2004, lower than previous estimates of 9,500 in each of 2003 and 2004. However, preliminary migration statistics for Alberta during the second half of 2005 suggest that the numbers for Edmonton may improve considerably for 2005.

The new city of Edmonton population count for 2005, along with changes to historical net migration estimates, will have an impact on both the Edmonton CMA and Edmonton city population forecasts. The Edmonton CMA population is now expected to reach 1,029,000 in 2006, and increase by 65,000 to a

level of 1,094,000 by 2011, while the city of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 44,000 to a level of 765,000 by 2011. Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is now expected to average 7,500 to 8,000 per year between 2006 to 2011 due to increased inflow of inter-provincial migrants from eastern Canada. Any further increases in net migration will be hampered somewhat by strong economic activity in British Columbia as they prepare for the 2010 Olympics, which may reduce people moving into Alberta.

Institutional *

$577 million for the Health Ambulatory Learning Centre.

Sciences

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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for apartments and first-time buyer housing; the large increase in the 50s and 60s age group will support demand for more expensive housing and 'empty nester' or retirement housing, and the high growth in the number of people aged 65

\

1 200 2\

*

,0

and over will increase demand for social and

9 476 7o

health care services.

730

600 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Edmonton (C.M.A.) Population Chang-h)Ag Forecat (211t,2011i) >

30.0

0

The other component of population change, natural increase, is expected to decline as the number of deaths increase and births decline as the population ages.

25.0

The City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA population continues to age. The 2001 Census of

-50

Canada indicates that the median age for the City of Edmonton's population increased from 33.8 in 1996 *

S

to 35.3 in 2001. The median age for the Edmonton CMA is the second youngest (after Calgary) of the country's ten largest urban areas. The number of people aged under 40 in the Edmonton CMA is

0

expected to increase by 24,000 over the forecast

* *

period compared with an increase of 54,000 for people aged 40 and over. The largest increase by 2011 is for people in the 50s age group (27,000 for the CMA).

S S

0

0

S

Our aging population has a direct impact on the size of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and the labour force, which is comprised of people either working or looking for work. As the working age population ages, more people will leave the labour force than enter it.

The population of the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA have broadly similar age profiles, with the CMA having a slightly larger share of people aged under 20 and the City having larger share of young adults and people aged 60 and over, 0 This changing age structure has important implications for various sectors of the economy: *

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

26 9 257 180

200 15.

""0 9

1O"019 20-29" 30-39

40-49 50 - 59 60 69'70 -79

09 1019 2029 3039 4049 5059 6069 70 79

0-

80

Labour Market After eight consecutive years of strong growth in the Edmonton region, the total number of people employed fell by 1.4%, or 8,000 people, in 2005 despite continued strength in overall labour demand. The drop was attributableto a decline in the labourforce, and the inability of several employers to fill vacantjob positionsdue to tight labour market conditionsin the Edmonton region.

Employment growth is expected to rebound by 1.5% in 2006 and average 1.3% peryearfor the remainderof the forecast period.

According to Statistics Canada, total employment in the Edmonton region has increased by a staggering 23% or 100,000 employed persons from 1996 to 2005 as increased investment in oil sands and infrastructure related projects in northern Alberta began to pick up steam. Employment grew by 3% in 2004, giving the Edmonton region its highest average annual level of employment in its history at 554,000 people- the second highest increase among all of Canada's 10 major CMA's, behind only to London, Ontario, which saw a 3.9% increase in Page 11

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

0

employment. As a result of this robust employment growth, Edmonton's unemployment rate has fallen from 8.3% in 1996 to its current level of 4.5%.

After eight consecutive years of strong employment gains, and despite continued growth in labour demand, employment finally took a step back in 2005, falling by 1.4%, or 8,000 employed persons, due to a drop in the number of people in the labour force and tight labour market conditions which made it difficult for employers to fill any job vacancies in Edmonton's skilled labour market. According to Statistics Canada's labour force survey in January 2006, 73% of those who left the labour force in Edmonton did so to return to school, while the remaining 27% left because of an end of a temporary or contract job. This had an impact on Edmonton's service sector economy, as the number of people employed in the accommodation and food services industry fell by 13.7% in 2005. Also, according to Statistics Canada, around 85% of those aged 25 to 44 are currently employed in Edmonton, which has made it difficult for employers to fill any job vacancies from existing labour supply pools in the Edmonton region.

....

.... .~:

Edmonton Labour Market Forecast SEdmonton C A)

-~..

100

..

,,torrid

~

6

.0 .2

39

43

2 °"2006

2007"

.20..06,

.0 2008 200

p009 >

20092

Building Permits

It is expected that the value of building permits in the city of Edmonton will reach $1.8 billion in 2006, $1.5 billion in 2007, and average approximately $1.1 billion each year for the remainder of the forecast period.

Due to low interest rates and a strong economy, the value of building permits in the city of Edmonton reached $1.6 billion in 2004, a 50% increase from 2003, led by a 50% increase in residential permits and a 43% increase in non-residential permits.

Despite increased supply of new residential units over the past few years and a drop in the level of net migration into the Edmonton region, the total city of Edmonton building permits have continued their pace, reaching $2.1 billion in 2005, a 31% increase from 2004, led by a 23% increase in residential permits (50% of total) and a 48% increase

It is expected that the total value of building permits will decline gradually over the forecast period, as higher anticipated interest rates will help soften residential permits, which are still expected to reach a healthy $1 billion in 2006, and average $720

69.

2010

0

<2011

)~

2011

.N,,

employment decrease in 2005 it Despiteinthe Despite the decrease in employment in 2005, it is expected that the total number of people employed will increase by 1.5% in 2006 and average 1.3% per year for the remainder of the forecast period, as an increase in net migration, particularly from those in the 20 to 35 age category from eastern Canada, help fill job vacancies in Edmonton's labour market.

High wages, particularly in Edmonton's skilled labour market, will also help alleviate labour supply and employment issues. However, a strong B.C.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

0

Housing Market

non-residential permits.

J(.. cin

o.0

economy, as it prepares for the 2010 Olympics, may keep people from moving into Alberta and may keep employment growth at bay.

0

million per year for the remainder of the forecast period - almost identical to the $760 million per year average between 2000 and 2005, and over $350 million per year higher than its historical annual average amount of $360 million. The industrial building permits are expected to increase to $150 million in 2006, up from its record setting year of $127 million in 2005, and average $120 million per year for the remainder of the forecast period, due to year for the remainder of the forecast period, due to higher anticipated the around and and energy projects in in related investments infrastructure re Emt Edmonton region.

Page 12

0

I

Residential Building Permits Forecast

that was reached in 1981. Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA followed suit with 13,294

Edmonton (City)~'. ($"Bions)

starts - the highest since the 17,000 level that was

+

S20 S0a0so

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 ~level

According to the Monthly reached in 1978.

Residential Construction Digest released by Canada

S.0

1 00

and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the

0. 15Mortgage I

ainventory

0500 sao

060

c.0family

040

0.00 <~

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

of completed and unoccupied single housing units for the City of Edmonton at the end of 2005 reached 398 units - 5.2% lower than year end 2004, with 40% of that inventory situated in the city's southwest. Despite the decrease in completed

inventory,

total single homes under

reached 2,450 by 2005 year end - 33% than year end 2004. Completed and

*construction Shigher

unoccupied multi-family homes in the city of *

'c

'

i

reached 924 units by the end of 2005 -

i. ", ....

P:Edmonton .. alilin

Buldng Permits Forecast

*4inventory

down 19% from year end 2004, but total multiple units under construction reached 5,422 units - 15% higher than year end 2004. Approximately 80% of inventory that is currently under construction and of completed inventory in the city of Edmonton are condominiums. With respect to total completed (singles and multiple family homes), the

...

city of Edmonton has 81% of the total available

.

.o0

0,77

a070

060

0

00

a0.50

a.53

052

0

0560%

V

supply in the Edmonton CMA.

6)0 0.00 00

007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Completed and Unoccupied New Multiple FailKN

Housing Starts

5100 40

~2O ~20.20"

1,300

S

0 S

0 0 S

0 0 *

*

0

Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA are expected to fall slightly from near record levels of 13,294 in 2005 to 12,500 in 2006. Housing starts in the city are expected to fall from 9,434 units in 2005 to 9,000 units in 2006. The fall in housing starts will be due to higher home carrying costs, brought on by rising interest rates and home heating costs, and a shortage of labour in the residential construction market. However, strong economic conditions will keep total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA at a respectable 10,000 units per year for the remainder of the forecast period.

1,200 1 100

10

~900 6

200

) _

.

M0 z An

Continued low mortgage rates and strong economic conditions kept the new home market strong in the city of Edmonton in 2005 with 9,434 total housing starts - the largest single year total since the 10,500 Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page 13

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page 13

0 Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 prospective home buyers may be faced with limited Completed and Unoccupied New Single Family Housing "0 Units, SIdmontonCity

options in the resale market, and may therefore have

no choice but to purchase in the new home market.

.

700 650

02003

02004

N 2005

.....

Home Carrying Costs

3400 350

200

prices 20 ya will amortizaionavg. reach 9,000 units in 2006, sidential city of selling Edmonton 10%down

for

40fundamentals, average reon

market, as sales increased by 6%,while listings fell

2%, which brought total active listings to 2,894 by year end 2005, down from the 3,854 level at the end of 2004. Inresponse to strong demand/weak supply

~

i':i

+[

..:

'!

:

As such, itisexpected that total housing starts inthe

13%to $181,432. single family, condominium and row house dwellings reached $193,934, up 8% from 2004.

of the decrease in total housing starts will be slightly lower than the near-record setting total of pas fw eas.Hosig tatsinth Emoto 9,434 in 2005, and average 6,500 units per year

ed 00 while condo prices increased 5% to $220,347, $141,009, and duplex/row house prices increased

the but Edmonton3 years.

Housing starts past per year between 2000 and in 2005, higher units few

Single family home prices increased 9%to

d4o (CM00

of200.Inrspons to strong demCMA fundamentas," -- . si.i. selln ce 13% to$8,3 dwelling reached$19,934,u $14,00 and dupolooo ex/rw husepricsiicresed ,

" ..45+++++ .

+

than the historical annual average of 5,700. The bulk

centered around multiple unit starts, as the market g fmakes brought adjustments reduce building on by strongtoconstruction activityinventory over the

,Demand nd Supply g in ehsale Marketmy ,

45

between 2006 and 2011 -slightly less than the 7,400

will follow a similar path to those in the City, reaching 12,500 units in 2006, 11,100 units in2007, toaHousingFwillasbestarts ftedecreseo n and averaging a respectable 9,000 units per year for t an e ofahe forecast period.

0.

,.

I:++

+10000' ? + +'\1Lu;uuL +' I + 50 ++,+y ... s.... ~601150001 .

............... w Ca(Thousands)a

:#

+

1o

or proposed announced $30thebillion with overover will keep housing next 5in years, projects

0

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

H's0

"

6

i.

....

,'+,+ + Strt F'oi cias

+':

8

-

a

2

.

+

w

l

23 63

A s, .. .

2008

2007

0

ct

.--++....

o

Strong economic conditions in the Edmonton region,

demand strong in both the resale and new home mearkets. However, rising home carrying costs, brought on by rising interest rates and higher home heating costs, could have an impact on new home demand. However, should the number of active listings continue to fall in the resale market,

0

i i e

t

w

2009

2010

2011

toa hui

ea

90

i

..

ut

i

0

0

Page 14

9

:

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 0

home ownership costs, brought on by higher utility costs and mortgage rates. An anticipated increase in

Rental Market

*

net-migration, primarily of those in the 19-24 age

_

The apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton reached 4.5% at the end of 2005 and is expected to decrease further to 3.8% in 2006. The downtown office vacancy rate fell to 7.1% in 2005, and is expected Ito fall further to 6.9% in 2006.

The annual Rental Market Survey by CMHC pegged the apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton at 4.5% in October 2005, down from the 5.3% rate in 2004, as the total number of available apartment units decreased due to reduced rental apartment starts and conversion of apartments to condominiums in 2005 in response to rising inventories over the past few years. According to CMHC, the total completed inventory of rental units stood at 478 units at the end of 2005, 26% lower than year end 2004, while inventory under construction stood at 518 units, 24% lower than year end 2004, after rising for the most part between 2002 and 2004. The total rental unit starts also decreased in 2005, falling 25% from 2004

*

levels,

0 0

Also contributing to reduced vacancies was increased net migration from persons aged 19-24 that moved into the Edmonton region from other areas across the country. Rising vacancy rates between 2001 and 2004 has made it difficult for landlords to increase rental rates, making it more attractive for current prospective renters. .

ndC Unoccupie Rental Unit.

d640

category, will also contribute to increased rental demand. Supply-side forces will also help lower the vacancy rate, as higher utility and construction costs will make it hard for landlords to pass these costs on to their tenants in the form of higher rents, due to already high vacancy rates, which will lead to further reduction in rental unit starts and inventories.

The 25% decline in rental unit starts in 2005 will also lead to fewer completions this year.

Apartment vacancy rates will decline further in 2009 to 3.1%, and remain at that level for the remainder of the forecast period, as landlords begin to increase rental rates in the near term in response to lower vacancy rates and higher demand conditions.

According to the most recent issue of the Market View Update from CB Richard Ellis, office vacancy rates in Edmonton's downtown region fell to 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2005, down from 8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2004, due primarily to increased

leasing activity by all three levels of government, an

influx of new landlords in the financial sector, and strong underlying economic conditions. A total of 168,200 square feet of office space was absorbed in 2005, with 114,400 square feet being absorbed by the financial sector, and the remaining 53,800 square feet being absorbed by the government sector. As a result of these strong demand fundamentals, landlords increased their lease rates in all classes of office buildings, with lease rates now ranging in the $10 to $17 per square foot range in financial class buildings.

nton

nd

Oit

14 0

S440 240

100 03

1

600N

0

apartment vacancy rate will It is expected thatbythe the end of 2006 as renters may decrease to 3.8%

~decrease to 3.8% by the end of 2006 as renters may

'N

'N~

<

"

be deterred from home ownership due to higher Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page 15

0

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

It is expected that vacancy rates in the downtown area are expected to moderate further to 6.9% by the end of this year, and average 6.5% per year for the remainder of the forecast period on the heels of strong demand, and the possibility of additional new office space being created as lease rates continue to rise.

Prices Edmonton's inflation rate is expected to increase to 2.5% in 2006, up from 2.1% in 2005, and average 2% per year for the remainder of the forecast period Edmonton's inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 2.1% in 2005, up from 1% in 2004, due to higher utility and energy costs, gasoline prices, and higher wage settlements. The price per litre of regular gasoline in Edmonton increased from $0.73 in January 2005 to as high as $1.10 in September in response to the impacts of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the United States. Average weekly earnings reached $789.15 in

November 2005

Non-Residential Construction Price The non-residential construction price index, which is reported by Statistics Canada, measures changes in contractors selling prices for new non-residential building construction for commercial, industrial and institutional development. The index is generated by Statistics Canada through surveys of both general and specialized trade contractors, and excludes the cost of land, design and real estate fees.

The non-residential price index has increased 6.9% in 2005, almost similar to the 6.8% increase in 2004, as continued tightness in Edmonton's skilled labour market continued to put upward pressure on contractors selling prices for non-residential building construction. Also contributing to the increase in 2005 was the higher cost of construction materials, brought on by increased international commodity prices for items such as steel and cement over the past few years, as countries, such as India and China, experienced robust economic growth.

dont

~6.5 Edmonton Region Inflation Rate Forecast i~~

0

on Residential Construction Price

6.00

6.0

-

5.0

in Consuer PriceIndex) Change (Annual Average Percentage

0

inConsumer Pce Index) Change nnual Average Percentage

a 6% increase from 2004.

-

0

4 3.5

3.0.

~~3.0 ~

2.5 2

S2006

2007

20

2008 ..........

\"2, 0

2009

22006

200

2011

i

~continue

. '' The inflation rate is expected to increase a further 2.5% in 2006 on continued strength in energy prices and further increases in wage settlements, which will translate into higher wage costs for businesses, and higher prices for consumers. Higher interest rates, along with a slight moderation in energy prices, will keep the inflation rate to an average of 2% per year between 2008 and 2011.

2007

2009:

2010

2011

The non-residential price index is expected to its upward trend in 2006, increasing by 6.4% and a further 6% in 2007 on the heels of continued labour market tightness and strong global economic conditions, which will keep commodity prices strong. Softer world economic growth between 2008 and 2011 will help alleviate commodity prices, which will in turn help lower construction material costs, and bring the nonresidential construction price index down to an annual average of 3.6% over the same time period.

Also helping non-residential construction costs in the near term will be a softening residential

2006City Forecast Committee, Aprilby:

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

2008

Page 16

Page 16

0

0Pr

0

0 0

construction market, which will result in a transfer of skilled labour from the residential labour market to the non-residential labour market, which help alleviate contractors' selling prices, 0

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS Upside Risks to the Outlook Continued geopolitical tensions, unrest in the Middle East, and large climatic events, such as Hurricane Katrina, could disrupt oil supplies further and fuel volatility in world energy markets. This has already resulted in increased energy prices so far this year, which could persist well into the future, keeping energy investment and exports strong for Alberta region.. and the Edmonton and region the Edmonton Better than expected economic growth in the United States for the remainder of this year and into 2005 could also help boost the Edmonton economy, as more goods and services, particularly from the energy sector, are exported to the United States.

In addition, a higher than expected level of net migration into the Edmonton region would benefit

Edmonton's tight labour market situation by providing much needed skilled labour, which would soften construction costsu, and improve help construction costs, hpdsoften

eml

n

employment growth.

Downside to the Risks Outlook increase in energy prices may dampen S A sustained A sustained increase in energy prices may dampen United States and the rest of the world the in growth economy as increased inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers, hampering flip-side, exports. On Canadian and Alberta t ana ma the led stregthnin word eonoy strengthening world economy may lead to an increase in non-OPEC oil supplies to meet increased mrke shre, uttng astrin oil emad, share, onn OEC OPEC market a strain oil demand, putting a such In oil. of price which would drive down the and Alberta the in investment planned case, Alberta in the case, planned investment ' be jeopardised and could sectors Edmonton energy In provncil gvernentrevnuesredced provincial government revenues reduced. In addition, very strong energy prices will ultimately lead to higher gasoline prices, and higher home heating costs, which would erode consumer spending and soften economic growth.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

0

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

l

Recent United States national energy policies are proposing an increase in domestic energy supplies, including the continued development of nuclear and coal-fired power generation. The adoption of this approach would reduce the emphasis on gas-fired generating plants, slow the increase in United States natural gas demand and remove much of the upward If aggressively pressure on recent gas prices. adopted, this policy may lead to a slow down in the current pace of development of North American gas resources, and hamper natural gas development in era Alberta. greenhouse gas A concerted effort to meet the greenhouse gas objectives of the Kyoto protocol through a mandated increase in the reliance on natural gas would increase both its demand and price, and would require expanded drilling programs and pipeline facilities in the province. Whether such a change would increase overall economic activity in Alberta and Edmonton would depend on the extent to which th ad d damaged gt be utr by these and might otherndindustries other climate change provisions. other climate change provisions. that the oil sands sector has There is no question that been e re recent t touin Edmonton's een playing a large role large there areoila sands though Evenand/or economic announced proposed number of boom. projects expected to begin construction in Alberta in forecast period, environmental and labour issues the olhidrilsnsepso.

could hinder oil sands expansion.

The Edmonton region has been experiencing tremendous growth in its construction sector, particularly in the housing market, which is evident by the level of housing starts in the last few years.

However, if the recent housing boom was based on market speculation instead of economic fundamentals, then there is the risk that the housing market softening of aa softening event of the event in the crash in could crash market could economy or reduced net-migration which would which would migration homes. Reduced for net-w reduced slow the demand Reduced migration new homes. for demand the slow would also reduce the level of skilled labour into the Edmonton region, making Edmonton's already tight making Edmonton's already tight region, Edmonton condition even tighter, and would labour market increase construction dampen and dampen further and costs further construction costs increase employment growth.

Page 17

I

S

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Indicator

World Oil Price (US$/bbl) (1) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) (2) Economic Growth Rate (% change)(3) United States Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (%) Exchange Rate(US$/Cdn$)

Forecast Actual/Estimate 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 United States, Canada and Alberta 56.60 61.85 65.20 41.42 56.46 31.14 8.15 8.85 9.30 8.14 6.52 6.31

2009

2010

2011

54.05 7.30

52.45 7.00

51.90 6.90

2.8 2.8 3.2 5.0 0.83

3.0 2.9 3.2 5.0 0.80

3.0 2.9 3.0 5.0 0.80

3.0 2.9 3.0 5.0 0.78

2.7 2.0 3.1 4.7 0.71

2.8 3.2 3.5 4.2 2.8 3.1 2.9* 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.5* 4.3 5.3 5.6 4.4 4.0 0.85 0.86 0.83 0.77 Edmonton Region and City 7.7 7.4 7.5* 5.8 1,042 1,029 1016* 1003* 730 721 712* 705* 3.0 3.2 3.5* 4.8* 563 554 546 554 1.5 1.5 -1.4 2.9 8.3 8.2 -8.0 15.5 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.0

7.5 1,055 739 2.8 570 1.3 7.3 4.1 2.0

7.8 1,068 747 2.7 577 1.2 6.8 3.9 2.0

7.8 1,081 756 2.9 584 1.2 6.9 3.9 2.0

9.3 1,094 765 3.0 591 1.2 7.0 3.9 2.0

3.3 6.5

3.1 6.5

3.1 6.3

3.0 6.3

6,300

5,900

5,900

3,500 2,800 9,000 5,500 3,500

3,500 2,400 8,500 5,500 3,000

3,500 2,400 8,500 5,500 3,000

Net Migration - CMA(000) (4) Population - CMA(000) (5) - City(000) (5) Economic Growth Rate (CMA)(%) Employment (CMA)(000) Employment Growth Rate (%) New Persons Employed (CMA) (000) Unemployment Rate(CMA)(%) Inflation Rate CPI(CMA)(%) Vacancy Rate (%) Apartment (CMA, Oct) Downtown Office (the City, Dec) Housing Starts (Units)

5.3 991* 699* 2.1* 538 2.9 15.1 5.0 5.3 3.4 11.8

5.3 8.6

-Total - Single Family - Multi-Family CMA -Total - Single Family - Multi-Family Value - City ($million) Permit Building Total (6) Residential Commercial Industrial

8,956 3,857 5,099 12,380 6,391 5,989

8,159 4,030 4,129 11,488 6,614 4,874

9,434 5,023 4,411 13,294 7,623 5,671

9,000 4,700 4,300 12,500 7,400 5,100

7,900 4,200 3,700 11,100 6,500 4,600

7,000 3,800 3,200 10,000 6,000 4,000

1,075 693 250 50

1,604 1,057 364 78

2,111 1,302 359 127

1,776 1,056 350 150

1,460 850 300 150

1,280 750 300 120

1,170 650 290 120

1,010 500 280 120

940 500 250 100

75 2.7

96 6.8

313 6.9

210 6.4

150 6.0

100 4.4

100 4.1

100 3.5

80 2.5

City

Institutional Non-Res Construction Price (% change)

4.5 7.1

3.8 6.9

3.5 6.7

* Estimates Sources: Actual/Estimate: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, CB Richard Ellis, Canadian Petroleum Association, Sproule, Alberta Economic Development and The City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department Forecast: City Forecast Committee, April 2006 Notes: 1. World oil prices are for West Texas intermediate crude at Cushing, Oklahoma in U.S. dollars.

2. Natural gas prices are AECO 30-Day Spot Natural Gas Price (Can$S/GJ) 3. The U.S., Canada and Alberta economic growth rates are for real GDP at market price.

4. Numbers are for July 1 of previous year to June 31 of current year.

5. The 2001 figures are post-censal estimates by Statistics Canada, which are different from the actual 2001 Canada Census.

6. Total building permit value contains "other" category at $10 million per year between 2006 to 2011

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page 18

0

• • •• I PM • •• ••

•• •• •• •• •• • •• • •• • •• ••

• • • • •

•• • • •• •

• •

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

I

•

Table 2: City of Edmonton Population Forecast, 2005 - 2011* 2005*

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0 -4

37,487

38,758

39,498

40,107

40,604

41,145

41,728

5-9

39,554

39,455

39,256

39,517

39,828

40,341

41,104

10 - 14

42,613

42,536

41,942

41,367

40,950

40,591

39,975

15 - 19

50,448

48,809

48,851

48,723

48,323

47,753

47,234

20 - 24

67,792

66,825

66,398

66,066

66,341

66,449

66,462

25 - 29

61,997

62,582

64,040

65,065

65,207

65,219

65,056

30 - 34

52,093

53,168

54,629

56,277

58,310

60,317

62,038

35 - 39

52,531

53,064

53,142

53,572

53,991

54,599

55,507

40 -44

57,098

55,839

54,331

52,535

51,233

50,642

50,887

45 - 49

56,565

58,088

58,637

59,067

59,005

58,318

56,731

50 - 54

48,112

50,306

52,114

53,896

55,087

56,138

57,203

55 - 59

36,979

38,856

39,628

40,606

42,386

44,132

45,864

60 -64

26,804

28,074

30,493

32,560

34,407

36,358

38,084

65 - 69

22,866

23,464

24,187

25,174

26,214

27,300

28,656

70 - 74

20,891

20,943

21,012

21,296

21,557

21,970

22,532

75 - 79

17,071

17,753

18,110

18,287

18,383

18,414

18,419

80 - 84

12,131

12,511

12,683

13,069

13,433

13,847

14,266

9,359

10,141

10,857

11,427

11,972

12,479

12,998

721,173

729,808

738,609

747,230

756,013

764,745

85+ Total

712,391

Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, April 2006 * 2005 City of Edmonton Census. Population estimates as of July 1.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page 19

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Table 3: Edmonton CMA Population Forecast, 2006 - 2011* 2005*

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0 -4

57,916

59,071

60,205

61,153

61,948

62,816

63,733

5-9

60,172

59,237

58,947

59,363

59,837

60,643

61,816

10 - 14

66,437

65,714

64,831

63,965

63,355

62,827

61,907

15 - 19

71,477

71,487

71,565

71,344

70,752

69,933

69,226

20 - 24

80,744

80,503

79,973

79,616

79,999

80,147

80,187

25 -29

82,833

85,291

87,344

88,801

89,052

89,101

88,900

30 -34

73,753

75,040

77,146

79,522

82,427

85,303

87,783

35 -39

73,618

73,995

74,177

74,812

75,430

76,270

77,575

40 -44

85,534

83,202

80,960

78,289

76,334

75,480

75,876

45 -49

83,445

85,050

85,877

86,531

86,460

85,475

83,182

50 - 54

70,634

73,467

76,171

78,789

80,574

82,175

83,766

55 -59

58,026

60,682

61,893

63,458

66,240

69,021

71,798

60 -64

40,998

43,046

46,752

50,018

52,919

55,897

58,448

65 - 69

31,982

32,815

33,834

35,243

36,730

38,277

40,204

70 -74

27,648

27,645

27,752

28,134

28,503

29,050

29,813

75 -79

22,411

23,121

23,602

23,846

23,977

24,028

24,042

80 - 84

15,801

16,175

16,405

16,910

17,393

17,936

18,492

85+

12,578

13,530

14,506

15,268

16,006

16,679

17,370

Total

1,016,007

0 0

0

1,029,072 1,041,940 1,055,061 1,067,936 1,081,058 1,094,120

Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, April 2006 *2005 Statistics Canada Post Censal estimate. Population estimates as of July 1.

0

0 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April2006

Page 20

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 every woman of child-bearing age, approaching the rate of 1.4 children reported in many European countries. This compares with a rate of 2.0 children per woman in the United States. Alberta showed a slightly higher number of children at 1.69, and has shown increases in births in four of the last five years.

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK KEYSOCIAL ISSUES

Social Implications of Demographic Change Declining birth rates, smallerfamilies and fewer children will have long term impacts on Edmonton's population, labour force and could have implications for the overall ability to maintainfacilities,programs and services, It is estimated that over the forecast period Edmonton's 0-9 year age group will increase by 7.5%. The 10-14 year age group will decline by 9.4% and the 15-19 age group will decline by 6.4%.

This is consistent with the demographic changes that are happening in Canada as a whole. The national birth rate has declined by about a third

Edmonton's age-specific fertility rate and crude birth rate have been declining similar to the national decline in rates. In 1990, the annual age specific fertility rate in Edmonton was 66.5 live births per 1,000 women age 15-44. By 2003 this had declined to 51.8 per 1,000 women (and this was an increase from 2002 when it was 50.2).

Edmonton's annual crude birth rate (live births per 1,000 population) decreased from 17 in 1990 to 12.0 in 2003. and Fertility Edmonton

-

between 1990 and 2000. The national birth rate

50 .0

0.

Birth Rate per 1,000 Population Canada S...'

-3

12:,6

-

-

-

-

- -

--

-

--

200

00 a9

1, 2 93495979

.

1 203

Cal -MA,

By rBI ve tfs

y

ono g

15

Canada, the closer their fertility rate mirrors the

*SE ?. g "

*

- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -

Immigration of younger families from other regions of the globe is expected to help mitigate the anticipated decline in the younger population and help support programs and services for older people and young children. The lifetime fertility rate of women who immigrated to Canada from 1996 to 2001 was 3.1 births per woman of child-bearing age. However, the longer immigrant women stay in

*> *1.0 13.

-

- - --

00

S-

Rate00xper

----

-------

2005 will remain above the national birth rate but

1,000 Population Canada0

e

r00

70.0

appears to have reached a plateau at 10.5 births per 1,000 population. Locally, the Alberta birth rate declined to 12.2 births per 1,000 population in 2002 and has rebounded slightly to 12.7 in 2004 and 2005. The Capital Health Region rate of 11.9 in

slightly lower than the Alberta rate.

BR -

','young

.uc

As of 2002, the number of children born to Canadian women remained near the all-time low set in 2000. It had risen slightly to 1.5 children for

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Canadian average, particularly if they arrived at a age and received part of their schooling here.

This pattern of decline in fertility is not as marked among women who immigrated from Asia and the Middle East (however, a relatively high proportion of immigrants choosing Edmonton are from these geographic source countries). The decline in

Page

21

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

fertility among immigrant women is significant because natural increase (births minus deaths) has been making a steadily smaller contribution to our population growth for Canada in recent years.

Edmonton's school boards are examining schools in neighbourhoods with declining populations of young children. School closures and amalgamation are intended to enable students to have quality programs with options available. Closure and sale of schools and school sites also frees-up resources to renew existing priority facilities and for construction of new schools in areas of the city that are seeing rapid development and increasing population. Most closed school sites have been retained by the city to provide additional parkland in neighbourhoods. Some closed schools are being converted to community use, for example a health care centre in Cromdale school.

Edmontonians identify as having an Aboriginal background.

0

The City of Edmonton has established an Office of Diversity within its Administration. The Office will help ensure City employment policies are not barriers to the workforce and reflect Edmonton's diverse population. As well, the Office will help ensure that Edmonton's citizens, regardless of background, are able to effectively utilize City programs, facilities and services.

0

*

0

Immigrants

Canada is now second only to Australia in terms of the percentage of its population that was foreignborn. In 2001, 21.8% of Edmontonians were born in other countries.

While only about 2% of immigrants each year select Edmonton as their home, over 19,000

0

Edmontonians had arrived from other countries during the 1996 to 2001 period. Notwithstanding this, the percentage of the Edmonton population this, the percentage of the Edmonton population that was foreign born in 2001 was lower than it was in previous decades.

0

Cromdale Beverly Heights Canora Strathearn Westwood

Year Closed 2004 2001 2001 2001 2004

St. Patrick's

Alberta Avenue

2003

The following were the top sources of immigrants

0

Wellington

Athlone

2005

to Edmonton during the 1996-2001 period.

North Edmonton Bellevue Idylwylde Queen Mary Park Strathearn JH

Balwin Belleview Idylwylde Queen Mary Park Streathearn

2005 2003 2001 2001 2005

Terrace Heights

Terrance Heights

2005

School name

Neighbourhood

Cromdale Elementary Beverly Heights Canora Elementary Strathern Elementary H.A. Gray

<!?.

Prime Immigration Source Countries.'

Edmonton 1996-2001 14%

10%

Diversity

Edmonton's population is increasingly diverse.

Businesses and governments that are not willing l""" to be culturally sensitive may be marginalizing themselves from this growing portion of the population.

0-

0

.,

0 0

Edmonton is a diverse city. Fifteen percent of Edmontonians are visible minorities; 21.8% of the population in 2001 had immigrated to Canada some time during their lives. More than 4% of

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page 22

0

* I

Prime Immigrant Source Countries of Immigrants to Edmonton 1996-2001 Numbe Percent Country of Origin r of Total* India 2410 12.5% China 2335 12.1% Philippines 2240 11.6% Hong Kong 800 4.1% Viet Nam 570 3.0% Ukraine 520 2.7% United States 500 2.6% Korea, South 445 2.3% 420 2.2% Yugoslavia Pakistan 415 2.1% Bosnia and 410 2.1% 0

*

0 *

two official languages, (2001 Census of Canada).

immigration with the governments of Alberta and

period 1996 to 2001 were of working age (25-64).

On average, immigrants tend to have higher levels of education than people born in Canada, and adult immigrants are much more likely to seek additional education once they arrive. Notwithstanding their educational achievements, recent immigrants are more likely to work in low-paying or non-skilled jobs, and are more likely to be unemployed than native-born Canadians. On the whole, recent immigrants, aged 25-54, earn on average only 63% of their Canadian-born counterparts.

Those recent immigrants, working in the 29 (many "high industries (many that Syindustries "high tech" tech" industries), industries), thatof S employ slightly more than half of all immigrants, earn 67.6% as much as their Canadian counterparts.

-Edmonton, recent immigrants had a rate of 76.1%, compared to 84% for Edmontonians. Their unemployment rate was higher (5.9%, versus 4.1% for others). Also, 21.2%

0In *employment

Sother

*of

immigrants (all peiods of immigration) to had low incomes, similar to the general population, whereas 40.6% of recent immigrants

5Edmonton *

*

0

Immigrants to Canada choose Edmonton and Calgary for the same general reasons but in different proportions. The largest group, 38% of immigrants sampled, chose Edmonton for economic opportunity; 24% for family and friends; 19% for educational opportunities and 19% for Edmonton's quality of Life. Immigrants surveyed indicated the best thing about living in Edmonton is quality of life (41%), Educational opportunities (31%); and economic opportunities (28%).

It is noteworthy that over 40% of recent immigrants to both Canada as a whole and to Edmonton have come from south, south-east and east Asia. Many have different language backgrounds and over 11,000 recent immigrants to Edmonton had knowledge of neither English nor French, Canada's The-

*

(1996-2001) had incomes below the Statistics Canada Low Income Cutoff.

Immigration and settlement issues are of interest to many in Edmonton and are one of Edmonton City Council's Special Initiatives for 2005-2007. The City will seek ways to increase the numbers of newcomers to Canada who settle in Edmonton's supportive and receptive community. Council will hold a round table on the reception and settlement of newcomers with key stakeholders. Council will explore the possibility of an agreement on

The majority of immigrants to Canada during the

0

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

Canada. As well, they will explore ways to attract and retain immigrants to our city.

The City will support this special initiative with supporting programs that attract immigrants and enhance their effective integration. The City will facilitate an immigrant forum to discuss concerns about social and economic integration. As well, they will collaborate with community groups to develop a vibrant international marketplace.

The University of Alberta is the seat of the Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and integration. This institution is aiding the City of Edmonton and the Government of Canada in Canada in examining ways to attract and retain immigrants to Edmonton. The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated that Alberta will develop a new strategy to increase awareness of Alberta as a destination of choice for skilled immigrants. The Speech also indicated that the provincial government will expand immigrant settlement services and language training, and make it easier servicesgrndtsanguageperiningfandmmakeattonasie for foreign-trained professionals to work in Alberta.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

23

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

23

6

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

a

1

40

is widely believed that the Aboriginal population is undercounted in the Census of Canada.

SAboriginal People

young, Aboriginal communities Edmonton's growing in number and becoming betterare educated.

Aboriginal peoples in Edmonton are diverse within growing in number and becoming better educated.thmevsadicueNrhA rcnIdas themselves and include North Amecan Indians They are a group that could have an even greater (themselves of diverse cultural and linguistic on and make impact our economy and life insignificant our city, contributions cbackgrounds)to (44%), Metis (52%) and a smaller number of Inuit (1%). Metis people are overrepresented in Edmonton when compared to their under-represented in are people Aboriginal in Canada among p uproportion ad as a in e o people Ao ar are Aboriginal oth There Edmonton when compared with the province as a whole. also other groupings based on whole (4.6% of Edmonton's population and 5.3% historic, cultural and legal issues. Edmonton is a population as Aboriginal). of Alberta'sidentify population identify population Aboriginal). as has magnet for many Aboriginal people looking for of Albweverta's, Edmonton's Aboriginal However, employment, housing, education and services.

Some Aboriginal people move back and forth to the grown substantially during the 1996 to 2001 period.

City from reserves and other communities Edmonton has the second largest number of Aboriginal people of major Canadian cities, after surrounding the city or from Northern Alberta. surrounding the city or from Northern Alberta.

Winnipeg. .

Edmonton's Aboriginal people are facing many many are facing people relate Aboriginal Edmonton's Some As part of City Council's Special Initiatives on challenges. of these to income challenges. Some of these relate to income Aboriginal Issues, the City has been working with people in the Edmonton CMA earn (Aboriginal Aboriginalto communities Edmonton's only 77% as much as do other Albertans), poverty to develop develop an communities Edmonton's Aboriginal "accord", which will provide direction as to how ( % a h o oe lan omn (15% of the low income population of many the City will interact with Aboriginal peoples both disruption, neighbourhoods a lna, family sutn ur is Aboriginal), sb as an employer and as a service provider. The City substance and culture and language, of discrimination, subjugation low employment and alcohol abuse, has established an Edmonton Aboriginal Accord h uemployment Office, in cooperation with the City of Edmonton high unemployment levels.

Aboriginal Urban Affairs Committee, to work with Aboriginal community leaders to further actions in The Aboriginal community is young and growing this regard. An inclusive Edmonton Urban rapidly. In 2001, 31.3% of the Aboriginal Aboriginal Dialogue process was undertaken in the population was under the age of 15 years compared latter part of 2005. More than 1,600 Aboriginal and to 19.7% for the general population. On the other non-Aboriginal people participated. hand, only 2.8% of Edmonton's Aboriginal communities are over age 65 compared to 11.6% of In 1996, the federal census indicated that there were the general population.

25,285 people in Edmonton who identified as The Aboriginal labour force participation rate Aboriginal. The 2001 Census indicated that there

were over 30,000 who identified as Aboriginal (an

(66%) is approaching that of the City as a whole

increase of over 20%). Projections indicate that the Aboriginal population in Edmonton could reach 44,000 - 47,000 by 2017 (an increase of about 45%). If the Aboriginal population of Edmonton grows at the rate it grew between 1996 and 2001, an urban Aboriginal population in the order of 55,000 can be anticipated.

(70%). The unemployment rate for Aboriginal people was more than twice as high as that of the general population in 2001 (14% vs. 6%). Also, almost 44% of Edmonton's Aboriginal people have low incomes (Statistics Canada Low Income Cut Off).

As well, the census found that there were over 40,215 Edmontonians who indicated they had Aboriginal origins (ancestry) whether or not they identified as being Aboriginal (this larger group overlaps with those who identify as Aboriginal). It

Most Aboriginal people in Western Canada work in the service sector as does the general population (74.1% of Aboriginal workers; 75.6% of nonAboriginal workers). Aboriginal youth are having a more difficult time with employment; 26.6% of Aboriginal

youth

Aprilby: 2006City Forecast Committee,

Prepared by: CiyV Forecast Committee, April 2006

in

western

Canada

were

Page

24

Page

24

0

0

0

0 0 0

0Pr

0

0

SEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 unemployed compared to 17.1% of non-Aboriginal youth. Aboriginal people in Alberta have a higher lower rate, participation force labour unemployment and higher employment rates than those in the other western provinces. Improved educational attainment, self employment (6.31% of Aboriginal people are self-employed) and increasing numbers of Aboriginal businesses (27% of Aboriginal businesses are located in Edmonton and area) bode well for improved employment rates and higher incomes in the future.

S

*

Visible Minorities

The visible minority population in the Edmonton CMA has increased in the last ten years due in large part to an inflow of immigrants. Of the 44,900 immigrants who arrived in Canada in the 1990s and who settled in Edmonton, 71% were also visible minorities in 2001.

minorities in Edmonton included South Asians (29,100), Filipinos (14,200), and Blacks (14,100).

24.7% of Edmonton's visible minority population have low incomes, a much higher rate than the general population,

Families and Children Canadians are waiting longer to marry. Commonlaw relationshipsand other family forms are more common. There is no one form of traditional family that applies to all Edmontonians. This will have additional impacts on employment benefits and family benefits and services.

People with visible minority backgrounds contribute much to the richness of Edmonton

Somewhat out-of-step with the nation-wide trend, the number of marriages in Alberta increased by 3% between 2001 and 2004 (Canada as a whole showed a small decline). However, a more pronounced trend is for people to choose a over common-law arrangement/relationship marriage, particularly as a first union or following

adding to the diversity and vibrancy of cultural,

break-up of a previous marriage.

religious, arts, leisure and other opportunities in our city.

Visible minorities accounted for 15% of the Edmonton region's 927,000 residents in 2001, up from 14% in 1996 and 13% in 1991. Edmonton had the fifth highest proportion of visible minorities among census metropolitan areas, behind Vancouver, Toronto, Abbotsford and Calgary.

*

I

About 20% of the City of Edmonton population were visible minorities in 2001. The proportion in 2001 was well above the national level of 13% and the Alberta provincial level of 11%. Every fifth person in the city of Edmonton was of a visible minority background.

About 4% or less of the population in the surrounding municipalities within the Edmonton CMA was comprised of visible minorities, The Edmonton CMA had about 41,300 Chinese residents, making it the fifth highest population of Chinese in the country. More than one in five Chinese people living in Edmonton immigrated in the past ten years. Other large groups of visible

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

*Prepared

by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

42.6% of Canadian men and 53.3% of Canadian women aged 20-29 years selected a common-law relationship as their first union. The percentage selecting common-law relationships as their first union decreases with age.

People are also waiting longer to marry. The average age of brides in 1981 was 26.2 years; by 2001 it had risen by more than 5 years to 31.9 years. The average age of marriage for males also increased. Coincident with this, the average age of a mother at birth of a first child also increases and people are having fewer children. People are also getting divorced at a later age.

The 2001 Census of Canada also found that 0.5% of Edmonton families are same-sex couples. Recent changes to the Federal Marriage Act will likely have little impact on the number of these families but may have positive impacts on their stability.

Stability is an important factor affecting families, especially children. Even before the actual marital break up, young children of parents heading for divorce tend to develop mental health problems more frequently than those whose parents are not Page

25

Page 25

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

I

breaking up. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth found that children whose parents eventually divorce show higher levels of depression, as well as higher levels of anti-social behaviour, than children whose parents remain married. Between 1999 and 2002 the

Seectd Family Types

Edmonton, 2001

number of divorces in Alberta had been slowly rising (7,931 divorces in 1999; 8,291 in 2002).

However, the latest information available for 2003 indicates that the number has dropped almost to the

.

278%

20

10%

.

1999 level. The national trend is similar. In 2001, 9.3% of Edmontonians over the age of 20 years

Marrled

Married

Couples

Couple.

(Wth (No Chldren) Childen)

were divorced.

\O.

Council's special initiative to make Edmonton a more child friendly city will be furthered by contacting child friendly cities around the world; Edmonton will apply to become a Child Friendly City and develop a process and strategy for implementation. A report card on Edmonton's progress in this regard will be developed. Council has also approved full funding for "access to recreation for low income families". This latter initiative will make recreational and selected cultural opportunities more available to families with very limited finances. Families First Edmonton will help determine whether a constellation of services, including recreation provision for children, will support families and increase their capacity.

La a irtdisability.

Marriage and Common-Law as First Unions ,nnnedianWomen, 2001",' ' ,;< C nadian Wome

2001

EMarriage

,

Common, Common

LawCNo Law(wh

L.on

Parents

Children) Chlldren)

oc4su, cnk

0 0

Health

0 The government of Alberta has conducted a review of its Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program. Its aim was "to identify ways to renew AISH so it better meets the needs of people receiving AISH, while ensuring the program is affordable and remains available to Albertans who need it."

In March, 2006, as announced in the Speech from the Throne, the benefit rates for AISH recipients increase to $1,000 per month.

In 2001, 15.8% of Canadians had some limitation to their activities due to physical or mental The percent of Albertans with a disability was very close to the national average, at 16%, while the percent of Edmontonians with a

disability was above the national average at 17.6%.

DCommon .aw

0

Disability increases with age. About 6.5% of S------

---------------

.

---

---

.

- --

---

0.

I.0

,

- -n

Edmontonians with a disability are under 15 years

- -

of age, while more than 15% are in each of the age

-

groups greater than 44 years of age. An aging population will likely mean more people with disabilities. Accessibility to facilities, services and

--

-

0.2

S

---

-

nbusinesses

will become even more important.

canada lel1 1 ,!

0

0 0 Prepredby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page 26

0

0

0

*

of insufed services with some form of private delivery and private-sector insurance for these costs. The third-way package, Alberta's New Health Policy, will include: putting patients at the center, * promoting flexibility in scope of practice of health professionals, * implementing new compensation models, strengthening inter-regional collaboration, * reshaping the role of hospitals,

Disailt Disability Rates byAg,21 2 Edmonton U Alberta

5â&#x20AC;˘*

1415-24 24

35-

454

564

6574

establishing parameters for publicly funded

75

years. years yearsyearsyearsyearsyearsyears ra.n

S

S

S

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

Pov ro ct

health services, *

creating

long-term

sustainability

and

More than 82% of those over the age of 65 had at least one chronic illness (many have more than one chronic illness) and about 50% had a disability. At age 65, Edmontonians can expect to live an additional 13.8 years. Unfortunately, only three of these years will be disability free.

0 A provincially-appointed task force on long term

flexible funding options, * expanding system capacity, * paying for choice and access while protecting the public system, and * deriving economic benefits from health services and research.

Some concern exists on the part of public health care advocates and political opponents of the government that the new policy will lead to a two-

care made a series of recommendations to improve

tier health system where ability to pay will

the level of care and quality of life of residents in Alberta long-term care facilities. These recommendations are being considered by the provincial government.

determine access to services.

The Government of Alberta is ready to implement the remaining recommendations of the Premier's Advisory Council on Health (the Mazankowski * Report). Initial steps will include: * encouraging regional health authorities to be more innovative, * expanding Alberta's Electronic Health Record to make more patient information available to health professionals across regional health authority boundaries by 2008, * creating an expert panel to review new and emerging health services for possible funding, and *public * introducing a school curriculum on wellness next year to begin making Albertans the healthiest people in Canada.

The Alberta Government has consulted with Albertans about the concept of a "third way" to provide health care. This will involve re-definition

Some healthcare initiatives being implemented by Capital Health in the Edmonton area include: * "The Alberta Hip and Knee Replacement project" that makes these joint replacement surgeries more accessible with shorter wait times. * Primary Care Networks from a team of health care providers. * Support for regional mental health plan priorities including targeting special populations.

The government is also investing an additional $500 million over three years (beginning 2005/06) in the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research.

Canada has one of the longest life expectancies in the world - 79.5 years for both sexes (77 years for males and 82 years for females) at birth. Life expectancy varies considerably within Canada and the remote, northern areas of the country have significantly lower life expectancies than the national rate. Edmonton (Capital Health Region)

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

27

by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

27

*Prepared

F

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

life expectancy at birth is 79.9 years for both sexes (77.4 years males and 82.4 years females) and is longer than the national rate and longer than the provincial rate (79.5 years both sexes). The gap between the national life expectancy rate at age 65 is even greater. The Edmonton rate is 19.5 additional years while the national rate is only 18.8 additional years. The gap between the Edmonton rate at age 65 years and the provincial rate is smaller.

Life Expectancy 2001 Expectancy- at birth Canada Alberta Calgary HR Capital HR Expectancy at age 65 Canada Alberta Calgary HR Capital HR

Both Sexes

Males

Females

Years 79.5 79.5 80.2 79.9

Years 77 77.1 78.1 77.4

Years 82 82 82.4 82.4

18.8 19.2 19.3 19.5

17 17.4 17.8 17.6

20.5 20.8 20.8 21.3

Edmontonians are generally healthy. Over 61% of those living in the Capital Health Region self-rated their health as excellent or very good during the five year period 1995-2000. This is just slightly below the five-year average for all Albertans of 63.1%.

risk of coronary artery disease, osteoporosis, stroke, high blood pressure, colon cancer and Type 2 diabetes.

The Canadian Community Health Survey conducted by Statistics Canada in 2003 found that most Edmontonians are aware of the value of being physically active. They realize that exercise is important to maintaining good health, and they often are aware of what they should be doing to obtain health benefits. Almost 56.3% of Edmontonians (Capital Health Region) report they are physically active or moderately active. Males are more active than females (56.3% of males report being physically active or moderately active in contrast to 47.7% of females). As well, Edmontonians are more active than the country as a whole (50.3% of Canadians report being physically active or moderately active). However, Calgarians and other Albertans are more active than Edmontonians (57.3% and 54% of Calgarians and Albertans report being physically active or moderately active, respectively). 43.9% of Edmontonians report being physically inactive.

A survey conducted for Active Edmonton in 2003 also indicated that as many as 36% of the population have no intention of changing their activity patterns soon and 52% said they planned some increase in their physical activity within the next six months. People tend to become less physically active as they get older.

In 2003, 82.1% of people in the Capital Health

Council's Special Initiatives on "Sports, Recreation Opportunities" and the "Capital Health Partnership" support the Active Edmonton program and the

Region had contact with a medical doctor in the

plans for improved facilities, trails and parks will

past year (slightly above the provincial and national rates). 8.9% had contact with a health professional about mental health in the past 12 months (slightly higher than the provincial rate) and 62.7% had contact with a dental professional during the past year (slightly lower than the provincial and national rates).

encourage Edmontonians to be active and help keep Edmonton an attractive City.

Edmontonians need to be encouraged to be more active. Inactivity leads to chronic health problems and a lesser quality of life. Physical activity and proper nutrition are keys to good health. Lack of regular physical activity puts people at increased

0 0

0

The City will also help ensure civic facilities and public transit support health investments. Public health emergency plans will be formulated. Other partnerships in the health arena will be developed to help Edmontonians have healthy and long lives.

Capital Health Authority, with the City as a partner, is evaluating the use of thrombolytics ("clot busters") in the treatment of heart attack patients in efforts to save lives and reduce the impact of attacks.

0 0 Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

28

0l

* 0

*

0

* S * S

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 * It has recently been estimated that 50% of the United States population is overweight or obese, Canadians are not far behind their American cousins. 15% of Canadians (age 20+) were found to be obese in a 2002 report. Edmontonians have the same rate of obesity as all Canadians. A disturbing fact is that almost one-third of children aged 2-11 are overweight (29% of boys; 27% of girls in 2000/01) and about half of them would be considered obese. These rates had tripled over the previous fifteen years for boys and doubled for girls. A high obesity rate, a high smoking rate, and a high depression rate were the strongest predictors of a low disability free life expectancy. Obesity is associated with additional social and personal problems for children.

In May 2003, the City of Edmonton in collaboration with over 35 community and governmental organizations (e.g. Capital Health, Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues, Sport Council, Health Canada) initiated Active

Edmonton (www.activedmonton.ca) to increase and S S

0 *

improve physical activity in Edmonton. Active Edmonton has monthly events, challenge contests, promotional symposiums, and workshops campaign, research and evaluation (to track participation levels, awareness and barriers), Active Edmonton Resource Guide, an information line (448-4555), weekly fit tips on A Channel and a web site. This year's focus area is children and youth.

Beginning in May 2005, the focus will be on the workplace. Active Edmonton is scheduled for completion in 2008. Edmonton's Mayor Stephen Mandel is the honorary chair of Active Edmonton.

The Active Edmonton model is being examined for potential use across Canada.

0 *

0

Seniors *

0

The aging population poses challenges for our youth oriented society. More programs and services are being designed with seniors in mind.

Alberta has the youngest population of the provinces, 10.4% of Albertans were 65 years of age

or over in 2001. This compares to 13% for Canada as a whole. 11.7% of Edmontonians, slightly higher than the rate for the province, were over the age of 65 in 2001 (11.5% in 2005). However, their numbers are growing rapidly. In the ten year period 1991 to 2001, the number of seniors in Edmonton increased by 51% while the total population increased by only 8%. By 2010 it is expected that Edmonton will have over 97,000 people, 13% of the population 65 years of age or over. By 2046 it is expected that one out of four Canadians will be over the age of 65 years.

Council's Special Seniors Issues Initiative will enhance services and opportunities for the growing seniors' population. The City will improve its knowledge base and continue liaison and partnerships with relevant agencies. Council will also: implement Seniors Friendly training for * City staff, conduct forums for the City to ready itself * for the growing seniors population, and e

help ensure equitable services for seniors.

The City will also: * develop a blueprint for action for senior's services, Seniors' Edmonton the * support agencies, other Coordinating Council and and expand City operated Senior Centres. * Adequate retirement income is a major factor in the well-being of older people. Canadians with incomes below $20,000 were much more likely to state that they had no plans to retire than persons with an income $40,000 or greater. Retirement plans were also greatly influenced by whether or not the individual had a private (or employment) pension plan. Recent immigrants (arriving since 1980) were much more likely (47%) to have no fixed retirement plans and were also more concerned (45%) about the adequacy of their financial preparations for retirement.

Consideration to reduce benefits for seniors because many seniors appear to be affluent, may be misguided. A large group of Edmonton seniors,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

29

by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

Page

29

*Prepared

S 17

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

primarily older women, have low incomes and are dependent upon government transfer payments.

The Government of Alberta appointed MLA Task Force to gather input on proposed health service and accommodation standards for continuing care, mostly for Alberta seniors, has made a number of recommendations to improve the level and standard of care as well as improve the quality of life of residents of long term care facilities. .

During the 2000 income year, 20.5% of Edmonton seniors (age 65+) had incomes below the Statistics Canada low income cutoff. This is the largest percent with low income of any adult age group and closely reflects the percent of the total population with low income. It is important to note that older women (and women in general) have higher rates of low income/poverty than do men.

For the 75-84 year age group, 11.7% of men have low incomes while 25.4% of women, more than twice the rate of men, have low incomes. At the 85+ age group, the difference is much more dramatic; 31.8% of women have low incomes while only a small number of men have low incomes.

Edmonton City Council approved a property tax rebate in 2005 of $39 for older homeowners who have low incomes and are receiving the Alberta Seniors Benefit. While the rebate is a relatively small amount it reflects the average increase in property taxes for 2005. The rebate shows the City of Edmonton's concern for older people who are on fixed incomes and have few financial resources.

Education Rising tuition fees at Alberta's post secondary I educational institutions pose barriers that keep lower income individuals from improving their incomes and quality of life through the means of higher educational attainment.

In 2005, the provincial government, as part of its Centennial Celebration introduced a new grant for newborn Albertans. The grant provides newborn Albertans with $500 for future education. The grant will make available $500 towards a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) for every child born to or adopted by Alberta residents in 2005 and after.

Three subsequent grants of $100 each will be available to children attending school in Alberta at ages 8, 8, 11 and 14, starting starting in in 2013.

2013. A A child child will will not not have to receive previous grants in order to qualify for subsequent grants. This grant should provide some relief for increases in tuition at Alberta's post secondary institutions.

increasing the level of financial benefit for low-

The percentage of men with a university degree

income seniors.

exceeds that of women with a university degree. In 1971, 6.6% of Canadian men had a university degree and 3.5% of Canadian women had a university degree. Not only has the number and university degree. Not only has the number and percentage of Canadians with a university degree grown but the gender gap in higher education is also narrowing. In 1996 14.3% of Canadian men and 12.3% of women had a university degree.

In Edmonton, the gap appears to be wider than in Canada as a whole. In Edmonton, 22% of men and 15% of women age 20-64 in 2001, had a university

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

0

Edmontonians like to think of themselves as being part of a "smart" city. Indeed, the percentage of Edmontonians (age 15+) with a university degree has increased from 15.6% in 1996 to 17.5% in 2001. The educational attainment of parents is a good indicator or predictor of the educational attainment of children. Each additional year of parental education increases the likelihood of university attendance for children by as much as five percentage points.

The federal government has stated that it is

The provincial government is in the early stages reexamining its benefits to seniors. On March 2, 2005, the Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated expanded to would be that seniors benefits be expanded to include include benefits would dental and optical needs along with help to cover annual increases in the education portion of property taxes.

0

Page

30

0

0

0 S

0

certificate, diploma or degree. This is in contrast 21.2% males and 21.9% females having university certificate, diploma or degree on national basis. Currently, enrolment of women university exceeds that of men.

0 Tuition University Selected Programs 2001-02

*

'

2001-02 Selected Programs ($) 2002-03 $6000 OArtstuition [ Science tuition (5)2002-3

00 --- ---5--ss,s5

0

4,M0 s00o . ssoo

---

--

-

-

-

$,o

S

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

I

to a a in

The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated that the provincial government will again cover the cost of tuition increases at public

'

E Commerce tuition2002-03 2002-G3 Graduate tuition ($)

-- r-

*

three years. The new space will increase to 30,000 by the end of the next six years, and to 60,000 by 2020.

A $3 billion endowment by the Alberta government for innovative programs at Alberta post-secondary institutions.

post-secondary institutions, and will develop a new

- u-----

...........

-tuition -- --_ _---education -----

$2,500

policy. The government will also increase in areas of skill shortages by increasing grant support for specific programs. This includes partnering with Aboriginal groups and industry on new training projects for Aboriginal people.

$2,o000

0

.... $1,000 BC " u . oc: Qlit of Canadian C. 6

S..k . .

200 Fo aRelationships" .

..

has among highest post-secondary Alberta the has tuition fees of the provinces. Alberta education the highest tuition in science and commerce and

the highest tuition in science and commerce and second highest in arts. This has made it difficult for some Albertans, including some Edmontonians, toan improve their educational attainment.

As part of Alberta's Centennial celebrations, Premier Klein announced that tuition in Alberta post-secondary schools will remain at the same levels for 2005-06 as they were in 2004-05. Other policy initiatives include: * A new strategy help ensure that money is is SA newto strategy

0 *

*

* *

*

m * *

not a barrier to students undertaking postsecondary education and training in Alberta post-secondary schools.

A new series of provincial scholarships and fellowships for graduate students at Alberta universities.

An additional 15,000 apprenticeship and post-secondary institution spaces will be created in Alberta institutions over the next three years and expanded to 30,000 at the end of the next six years. The number of spaces will increase to 60,000 by 2020.

An additional 15,000 apprenticeship and post-secondary institution spaces will be created in Alberta institutions over the next

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Edmonton City Council's special "Post-Secondary initiative will enhance relationships post-secondary and area Edmonton with educational institutions. The City will work to help institutions to attract new professors and strategize key initiatives. Partnerships will be furthered in the

and of children, youth study of areas and study leadership, of leadership, areas research betweenyouth the ofgapchildren, and reducing families, aie and practice.

Nationally,

elementary and secondary

school

enrolments had declined by 1.6% between fiscal on total spending However, total 2004/05. However, 1996/97 and 2004/05.

1996/97 spending on and secondary schools has public elementary increased by 11.3% in 2004 constant dollars. In Alberta enrolment has increased by 0.8% during this period while expenditures on elementary and secondary education have increased by 32.9%.

Alberta spending per pupil has grown by 31.9% peri rt se during this same period.

A total of 31,335 secondary students graduated from Alberta schools in 2002/03, up 17.8% from 1997/98. Alberta had the lowest graduation rate among the provinces where only two-thirds of youth graduated from high school in 2002/03. On a brighter note, the graduation rate in Alberta is improving while in many of the other provinces it is deteriorating.

Page 31

I

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 .

Ae Hha

t

Rate Alberta High School Graduation Schoolminimum

C

a

75%

d

a

September 1, 2005. The provincial government estimates that about 11,000 Albertans earn minimum wage. wage.

..

bsn

of Low Income e

wIncidence

whc

65%s I'''? pt65%

Edmonton, 2001

.l

.

2001

20,

182,

55%

... ontbe .... eiso 50%5 199798

o

Suc:Statisacs

2000/01

ihyuhfo 2001/02

0

.,4...

cos

2002/03h%

CanadaDabl

rvnil

deeopY

0

5%~

taeyt

inres

hig

The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from themet Throne indicated that the Alberta government will

whc0nrae

S Cenadae

odlst

rm$.0prhu

Alberta

Soue ba serty

poc

Edtmonton Edmonton' Cagary CMA

.T

hold a series of roundtables with youth from across

the province. These will help to better understand why students leave school early. A high school will include teens, symposium, completion which parents, business leaders and educators, will help schlo c Poverty soeefo

o

t$7.00 inc srate durng hefrstalffthdecdethee ae mnytoo hag rovneed Poeof trategfutoe iresed

While the economy has significantly improved

The improved economy in Canada and especially infrom

hEffective March 1, 2006 Alberta has the sixth rate wage of the provinces (prior minimum ihest t 2 Aea d th les um ag) increased from $5.90 per hour for adults to which per hour. While this is a significant increase, work have towge)IC would one child parent a single meetmu lwesto hapter 2065Alberwith 72.45 hours per week to meet the income threshold the low income cut off (pretax LICO) to no longer be considered poor. This is an improvement

before the inimcrease in minimum wage when it

Albeduring the first halfeduced othenumbdecade, there are ofmany

people in it. o the Govern mental and17.2% sincwho have not benefitedd-1990s. soci

ety e

Hourly Minimumn Wage by Province,

ffortsneed to be furthis had beenreucted

low-incomesS75 living (CMA) Edmontonians theregion.aining justsmain than with rathernsive poverty reducing Edmontonians (CMA) living with low-incomes of the 17.2% CanadaS In 1996, the mid-1990s. since the Statistics below incomes population in and especially Canada ratein onomy improved hademont The of numAlberta's Premier, Rcentage On FAlbertahas reduced the to 12. 1%. In the City of Edmonton, poverty or low-

so

8

$

,

7...... 60

swo 200

"4"

Febrry

s.

o

ilt

r

$

Statistics thein Canada s belonfirmed and it wancome population hannounced

Adequate, appropriate and affordable shelter is very ome cutoff. In 2001, thisrone that the 2005-06 2, 200low-inc5 in a climate like thatCity sYet, important of Edmonton, in or lowan increase provincial budget would include poverty 3e webs ieOnrao Labour Prepardby:ibyLrmImtegaArn web of renter renter households (37.7% 40,615 in 2001, from thcrease $5.90 it is in wagore than minimum extensive irta's 'N Abincome On February 7, 2005 Alberta's Premier, RalphSoreMcboLocad households) spent more than 30% of their gross in the March effect (2001).took ofconfirmed 18.620% wase an cityandrateit was The announced KleinEdmonto$7.00,

2, 2005 Speech from the Throne that the 2005-06 provincial budget would include an increase in Alberta's minimum wage. The increase from $5.90 to $7.00, an increase of 18.6% took effect

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April2006

S

Adequate, appropriate and affordable shelter is very important in a climate like that of Edmonton. Yet, in 2001, 40,615 renter households (37.7% of renter households) spent more than 30% of their gross

Page 3

0 S

SEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 income on shelter (CMHC standard for affordable shelter costs). As well, 2192 Edmontonians did not have a permanent residence in 2004. Edmonton * City Council's special initiative on affordable housing, "Cornerstones: Edmonton's Plan for Affordable Housing" is to increase the supply of affordable housing units by 2,500 in five years. The 0newly, January 2 3 rd, elected federal government has indicated a $200 million (nationally) tax credit for low income housing for provinces and municipalities. The lack of commitment to capital funding, on the part of the new government, could impact the success of Council's affordable housing initiative.

support. or subsidy to children in low-income families who are between the ages of six and twelve. Approximately 2,100 Edmonton children in low-income families receive municipal subsidy for out of school care per month.

The City's services to the children of Edmonton are based on the international UNICEF-supported "child friendly" secretariat key indicators.

Edmonton City Council's Special Initiative on a "Child Friendly City" includes: * *

The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated that the provincial government will increase financial assistance through "Alberta Works" (formerly Supports for Independence)to people who cannot work, either due to multiple barriers or medical conditions that keep them from being able to find or keep employment,

Child Care Most children now receive some form of preschool child care. The quality of that care can have a significant impact on children's development and later life.

* * * * * *

S

S

In 2000/01, 53% of Canadian children ages six months to five years of age were in non-parental child care. This had increased from 42% in 1994/05. 25% of these were enrolled in daycare, up from 20% ten years earlier. While Alberta had the lowest provincial rate of child care among the provinces, 45.7% (tied with British Columbia) were enrolled in child care. Children from single-parent families were more likely to be enrolled in child care than children from two-parent families.

Children in households with incomes below LICO were less likely to be enrolled in child care than children from higher income (equal to or above LICO), 37.3% and 57.1%, respectively. Urban children are more likely to be enrolled in child care than are their rural counterparts.

*

While the above information relates to children under age six, Alberta municipalities may provide

S

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

I

*

* *

improving advocacy for children internally and externally with partners, understanding and benchmarking City services for children, determining barriers to services and potential funding from other orders of government to address these, developing pilot projects, and developing a corporate children's services framework.

In the October 5, 2004 Speech from the Throne, the federal government proposed building a "national child care program" based on four key principles: quality, universality, accessibility, and development. The proposed program would help provinces provide a child care program for children up to age six. The federal government indicates a commitment of $5 billion over a five-year period.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador have signed agreements in principle with the federal government regarding funding for child care.

On July 7, 2005, the governments of Canada and Alberta signed an Agreement in Principle called "Moving Forward on Early Learning and Child Care." The agreement paves the way for $70.4 million in new money to flow to Alberta to fund child care in 2005, approximately $65.7 million in $116,8 million in 2007/08; $117.3 2006/07, million in 2008/09 and $117.9 million in 2009/10.

Special considerations agreement include:

for the Alberta-Canada

Page 33

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 *

*

Early learning and child care programs and services include private and public providers, for children under age six.

Services will meet standards established

and monitored by Alberta.

SInvestment can include

capital

and

* Investment can include

capital

and

operating funding, fee subsidies, wage professional training, enhancements, development and support, quality assurance and parent information and referral.

0

City of Edmont6on Out-of-School Care 2005 (orole 2002

_2001

2006 (prolect

203

2004

ted)

ed

S

Number children

per

month

2081

2078

2109

2198

2078

2100

$5.60

$6.40

$6.6 7

$6.3 0

$6.20

$6.20

$203.2

$218.1

$232

$230

$232.

.00

.32

29

Annual

Financial

forcation Subsidies $millions

Average monthly subsidy

Federal investment in pre-school child care in Alberta will free up dollars currently invested by new federal program..r The child care in the Alberta government elected on January d indicat ed in its

per child $

0

8

$22000

The provincial government has expanded its role in 23 election platform the reallocation of child care assessing child care centres to include out-of-school electionies to permit choie reallocation child care ofinthrough an care centres. The City of Edmonton has reached an monies to permit choice in child care through anagemnwihCldarSrvcsnRgon6t agreement with Child Care Services in Region 6 to allowance scheme. At the present time it is unclear how

this will,

if at all,

impact the planned

take primary responsibility for assessing the quality

howifat hiswill al, mpac th planedof improvements to the provincial child care program.

approved out-of-school care centres in the City of approved out-of-school care centres in the City

In Alberta the provincial government assumed responsibility for subsidies for child care for lowincome families with children of pre-school age.

Municipalities continue to provide subsidies for out-of-school care for school age children where this is a municipal priority.

standards. The two orders of government, provincial and municipal, will continue to monitor the situation in the Edmonton region

Alberta cities are attempting to influence the provincial government to increase funding for care for school age children. Federal Child Care program dollars flowing to Alberta for pre-school age children, free up the provincial dollars already

Culture and the arts are vital integral parts of society. Supportfor the arts,for all Edmontonians regardless of income or background, could offer creative ways to bring diverse elements of our society together.

invested.

Extending the program to school age children (age

The arts and culture are a vital, creative part of the community and play a major role in keeping our

6-12) would not have a major impact on the Federal

quality of life high.

funding if the same criteria are used for program access. Combined, the cities of Edmonton Calgary and Red Deer invest approximately $10 million per year on out-of-school care.

of Edmonton and ensuring they meet the City's

Culture Culture

Total government spending (nationally) on culture has been increasing over time and now totals over $7 billion per year. Per capita government spending on culture in Alberta was $160 in 2002-03 (composed of $51 federal, $56 provincial and $53 municipal). This was the lowest total per capita spending of the provinces primarily because of lower provincial spending. Despite this, the arts sector in Alberta added over $150 million to the GPP (Gross Provincial Product) and employed more than 3,500 Albertans full time.

2006 City Forecast Committee, Aprilby:

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page

34

0

00Pr

Page 34

0

*

I0

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

Edmonton City Council's Special Initiative on Edmonton Arts projects an enhanced profile for the arts community through a partnership with the City of Edmonton. City Council will support the Edmonton Arts Council and help develop an overall vision for the arts community through a Cultural Plan. * The arts will be better represented in Edmonton promotional materials and efforts. An "arts zone" will be considered for the 118 Avenue area as part of neighbourhood revitalization. The City will also support cultural and arts festivals, develop new facilities in high priority areas and plan for maintenance and sustainability of major downtown arts facilities. The City will also continue to make city property available for arts venues and events,

* . *

* * * * 0 *

0 *

The City of Edmonton spending on culture has been increasing steadily over the last five years to where it now totals over $42 million. Between 2001 and 2006 Edmonton's municipal expenditures on culture increased by over 40 percent.

Investment

inCulture*

City of Edmonton (SOCOs) s45,000 $ 39 756 N(pools)

&

.o,

0

$3009'-

4

$25'000

S200 I *02001

s

2002

m

9 *

0 *

0

2004

2005

2006

,an on(lakes,

Doo rrt Irjudecapital

0Recreation

2003

erpe

\-

op-

- O *n Edmonton 93.4% 56.9%

.

Alberta 93.0% 56%

55.9%

54.1%

Golf

38.6%

44.9%

Aerobics/Fitness/Aquasiz e/Yoga Weight Training Jogging/Running

45.9%

43.9%

35.2% 36.1%

36.1% 35.6%

Swimming

31.5%

32.6%

Ice Skating

33.1%

29.6%

In-line skating

18.6%

20.9%

..

235,000

50

-

Te

Bicycling Swimming

-*

Council's Special Initiatives on Sports, Recreation Opportunities and Capital Health Partnership supports the Active Edmonton program and implementation of plans for improved facilities, trails and parks to encourage Edmontonians to be active, stay fit and healthy and help keep Edmonton an attractive City.

Activity Walking for Pleasure

-\ 0

recently Alberta Community Development ;. ",published the results of the 2004 Alberta Recreation Survey. 3,217 Alberta Households completed the survey. 28.2% of these were in Edmonton. In terms of exercise oriented recreation, Edmontonians and Albertans as a whole varied little in their preferences. As well, there were only small differences in Edmontonians and all Albertans with regard to creative/cultural activities. The largest difference was in visiting museums or art galleries.

Social Passive activities had the largest differences especially with regard to picnicking in the countryside.

,;urs

-

ponds) nds

rivers,

_

and Leisure

The need for health-giving and fulfilling leisure activities is more and more important as we are becoming increasingly obese. Leisure activities and opportunities to enjoy nature play an importantpreventive role in relationto health and social issues especially in light of the increased pressures on the health and social support systems.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee,April 2006

Page 35

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

Page 35

17

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 u a Actviie Pati Activity

-

M

*

Attending a fair or festival Doing a craft or hobby Attending a sports event as spectator Visiting a museum, art

.

-.

.

-

Edmonto n 64.1%

* .

Alberta 56.7%

62.5%

63.8%

58.8%

60.0%

54.4%

50.9%

53.5%

51.9%

gallery Attending live theatre FIn Pacticipty A Alberta Edmonton Activity G Ardening 71o 7 % 72.1% 71.6% Gardening '9 53.0% 51.3% Playing video, computer or electronic

games Attending educational courses Picnicking (within a city) Picnicking (in the countryside)

45.8%

43.3%

38.8%

38.0%

28.3%

37.3%

"takeover". Grants are anticipated to continue until a final disposition of ground ambulance service in Alberta is determined.

0

In Edmonton, seniors are three times as likely to use emergency medical services as the general population. Those people 85 years and older have ambulance utilization rates seven times higher than does the general population. Large increases in the senior population will likely occur in the older, central areas of the city. A high proportion of this population will be women living alone. The increasing number of seniors along with the increasing sprawl of the city could place additional pressures on emergency services such as Emergency Medical Services.

0

2004, there were 7,620 responses to fire alarms, structural fires and non-structural fires. This is a 3% increase over the previous year when there were 7,392 responses.

7,392 responses.

2003 Cause

The provincial government's stated intention to assume responsibility for ground ambulance service across Alberta, including in Edmonton,

Deliberately Set

has been postponed. However, no new target date

cooking oil, grease,

for transferhas been set. Fundingfor this service was to be channeled through the regional health authorities, and through the Capital Health Authority for the Edmonton region.

The transfer would have enabled the City of Edmonton to utilize the $25 million savings

Smokers Materials

The province stated that the costs were more than anticipated.Ambulance transfer will not happen in 2005 but may occur laterin the forecast period.

The provincial government provided grants to municipalities in lieu of the ambulance

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

0 0

The number of fires in the City of Edmonton has varied little over the past three years. 1635 structural fires occurred in 2003, and 1523 in 2004.

The leading causes of residential fires are relatively stable. The five most common causes of residential fires, where there were investigations as to cause, are listed in the table.

Safety

realizedin other priority areas.

0

204 number

Overheated cooking oil,

62

grease, wax

55

Deliberately set

Overheated

58 52

Combustible placed too close to heat of Ignorance haar

number

Cause

37

S31

31

53 Combustible Placed Heat too Close tO to ker'st Matoeal ' M tra hce45t Mechanical/ , electrical. faiurhazard e/rialfunctio [n-=unclassfied "1 n - unclassed

4

45

15

15

With respect to crime, overall, there has been a decrease over the past year. Generally speaking Edmonton is a safer city than it was a year ago.

Violent crime in Edmonton has been steadily

Page 36

_

0

0

i

I9

S

decreasing over the past number of years despite a small number of high profile violent crimes. In 1998 there were 7,651 violent crimes in the City of Edmonton. By 2004, despite a larger population there were only 6,718 violent crimes in the city. As a rate per 1,000 population this decreased from 12.1/1,000 population in 1998 to 9.5/1,000 in 2004.

Violent crime also decreased a further 6% during the first half of 2005, continuing the downward trend.

0

* * *

0

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 -i

*0 Violent Crime Rates per 1,000 Population

youths aged twelve to seventeen committed 7,111 crimes and by 2005 this had decreased to 4,907, a decrease of 31% during the period. Youth violent crime charges, decreased by 10.5% for 2005 when compared with 2004.

Property crime, on the other hand, has increased in Edmonton over the same period of time. Property crime increased from 40,436 incidents in 1998 to 54,898 incidents in 2004, an increase of 36%.

However, for the first half of 2005 property crime is down 4% over the same period in 2004. It is too early to determine whether the tide is changing.

Edmonton N

14 '

'

'

"

.

5

121

13

108

10 8

165

Property Crimes

10 6

Edmonton

101

9

&0,000 ' "

o

.

52763

5\0,000 6

*

dce sdda atcl y.......

rep rt Chil s~~~ 3

ha

1999

1d99

2M

201 0

2002

20

2004.

pons

ie re Sour e Edmonaion Po Sw

40 43

4 30,000 30,000

\

2000

1P99

200

women

are particularly

address issues of family violence. In 2004, 4,401

t

a

b364

391

cases were referred to the Spousal Violence

C

~.4~i~):29'

246

Intervention Teams.

'"

;

200

100

The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the indicated that provincial government will

7Throne 20

'

1998 Sc

2003

consisting of Police and Social Workers to h Teams

soo 440

3,00

2002

Edmonton has Spousal Violence Intervention

S..o

*

2001

vulnerable to domestic violence. The City of

Roice

ChridAuse Reports to Edmonton Police Service

Pi400

.b ...

P eoercE eChild Poce Souio Edmonton a(although Canadian research reveals that 7% of people in marital, common-law current or previous in the violence relationships experienced relationship. In Alberta in 2004, 7% of men and 10% of women (the highest percent of the Provinces), experienced family violence in the past five years. Immigrant

SCl As

.. ,:

>

.

199p8

S

41,045

20r 1e.

0

abuse reports have decreased dramaticallyh not child welfare cases). In 1998 there were 440 child abuse cases referred to Edmonton Police Service. By 2005, the number of incidents had declined by over 49% to only 227. As a rate per 1,000 population the rate declined from 0.69/1,000 population in 1998 to 0.32/1,000 in 2005.

3 .9097

39 ,

Ernono

1999

2000

2001

'.

2002

2003

2004

P--v'

strengthen legislation to protect people from family

violence by broadening the definition of family violence to include stalking, widening the scope of who is protected and clarifying the conditions for

Charges in relation to young have also dramatically decreased over the period 1998 to 2005. In 1998

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2006

0

protection orders. The province granting will also emergency launch

a multi-disciplinary team of police

Page

37

I

I

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

officers, legal advisors and other experts who will respond quickly and effectively to high-risk family violence and stalking cases. The team will assess threats and reduce risks with the goal of preventing serious injury and death.

Disputes among neighbours that are reported to Police, an indicator of social cohesion, were down over this period. There were 760 reports in 1998.

The number of reports had decreased almost every year to 575 in 2004. Edmonton's population was slightly more stable in 2001 than it was in 1996. In 2001 approximately 19.3% of Edmontonians had a different address than the previous year in contrast to 20.4% in 1996. In 2001 50.4% of Edmontonians lived at a different address than they had five years previously compared to 51.0% in 1996.

Revitalization Between 2001 and 2005, of the 250 residential neighbourhoods listed, 132 neighbourhoods lost population (a population loss totalling 25,410). 118 Edmonton neighbourhoods gained population (totalling 80,064 people) during this period inmigration, natural increase and movement from other neighbourhoods.

Higher than average crime rates, rates of low income, child welfare cases, use of hospital emergency room services and other indicators of community well being are characteristic of some neighbourhoods in need of revitalization.

Drug Use Prevention Use of drugs is a problem in many of Canada's cities. A 1997 survey of 200 senior elected municipal officials, police representatives, First and members Council Tribal Nations representatives of the federal-provincial-territorial working group on crime prevention, perceived drug offences to be the most serious crime and disorder problem in their communities. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities initiated a series of pilot projects across Canada to look at developing municipal drug strategies.

In Edmonton, charges by Police for violations of the federal Controlled Substance Act have been relatively stable.

0

The range in number of charges varied slightly from a high of 1,693 (in 2002) to a low of 1,478 (in 2001). For the first half of 2005, drug charges had decreased by 17% when compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

Nevertheless, drugs are seen by many in our community as potentially affecting a significant group of Edmontonians, especially youth and being a cause of related crime.

0

Violations ofFederal Controlled Substance Act Enton 2,000 1,693

1,6 1692

1,0D

163

Edmonton City Council's Special initiative on

Neighbourhood Revitalization includes renewal of physical infrastructure, community engagement, alternative mobility modes, and target areas social,

00

recreational, economic and environmental concern

using a community building model. Existing city resources will be targeted and brought to bear to support support revitalization revitalization of of these these neighbourhoods neighbourhoods when needed.

The neighbourhoods for considered for such efforts, and as modelsbeing considered for such efforts, and as models for future revitalization areas, are those along the in18other Aenuecorrdorenforcement the 118 Avenue corridor.S

2 n

P

200

Se

2002

2003

2004 A..

In November 2003, then Mayor Bill Smith met with representatives from a number of local oa ubro rpeettvsfo organizations involved in prevention, treatment and enforcement aspects aspects of of illicit illicit drugs.

These early early drugs. These workshops were held with expert representatives from provincial, municipal, school Board, Health Authority and voluntary organizations to identify

April by:2006 City Forecast Committee, Prepared Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, April 2Q06

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

the extent of the problem of illicit drugs being used in Edmonton, and impacts of drug abuse.

Workshop participants agreed that greater collaboration could be achieved between their respective organizations and that a coordinated Community Drug Strategy that targeted young people (to 24 years of age) with emphasis on The alcohol and illicit drugs was needed. coordinated drug strategy was tentatively to be completed in fall of 2005 with implementation beginning later in the year.

:

Edmonton City Council, as part of its special initiative "Mayor's Drug Strategy," will participate in developing a comprehensive and coordinated drug strategy and implementation plan with other community partners (AADAC, Health Canada, Alberta Learning, Edmonton Public Schools, Edmonton Catholic Schools, and Edmonton Police Service). Special elements of this strategy include a concerted effort to educate citizens about this problem and enlist them in identifying marijuana grow-ops. The provincial government has also

made it more difficult for local manufacturers to obtain the main ingredient in production of crystal methamphetamine. This latter initiative should help reduce the use of this illicit drug.

*

The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated that Alberta will introduce legislation, first in Canada, to specifically define a drug-endangered child and make it clear that such a child is the victim of abuse.

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry Employment by Industry - Edmonton C.M.A. (thousands) Industry

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Total

431

431

424

431

445

445

469

477

484

491

508

523

538

554

546

Goods-Producing Sector

81

83

81

84

94

91

97

100

111

101

108

121

121

126

122

Agriculture

3

3

4

3

9

6

8

8

7

5

2

3

5

5

3

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil &Gas

8

8

7

9

11

12

14

15

10

10

12

11

13

12

15

Utilities

4

6

6

5

4

5

4

3

3

5

4

5

5

6

6

Construction

30

29

27

26

28

32

27

31

36

34

42

47

48

51

51

Manufacturing

35

38

37

41

42

37

45

44

55

47

48

55

50

52

47

350

349

344

348

351

353

372

377

374

390

400

402

417

428

424

Trade

79

74

74

76

76

74

77

75

76

85

84

81

87

91

96

Transportation and Warehousing

23

22

22

22

23

25

27

25

25

30

30

28

30

30

30

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

29

30

28

27

27

24

27

30

29

29

31

31

27

31

31

19

20

22

26

22

26

29

29

33

33

36

37

35

36

38

Business; building and other support services

11

13

13

11

15

15

16

17

16

16

13

18

24

20

19

Educational Services

36

37

36

31

34

32

33

31

37

35

43

41

39

41

42

Health Care and Social Assistance

49

46

44

50

47

51

48

55

53

52

53

55

55

61

56

Information, Culture and Recreation

19

19

20

23

25

23

21

28

23

21

21

22

22

24

24

Accommodation and Food Services

26

27

28

26

29

30

32

31

30

35

35

36

37

39

34

Other Services Public Administration

22 38

23 37

25 33

22 33

26 28

25 29

31 31

28

26 27

28 26

25

25 29

28 33

24

26

31

29

Services-Producing Sector

28

29

Prepared by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, February 2006 Source: Statistics Canada

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, April 2006

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

APPENDIX H - Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry Real Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices by Industry, Edmonton C.M.A. (1) Millions of Chained (1997) Dollars

(2)(3)

2000 1999 1998 221 250 241 Agriculture 2588 2701 3510 Other Primary 4246 4443 3838 Manufacturing 2500 2387 2342 Construction 1122 899 902 Utilities 2087 1688 1804 Warehousing Transportation & 3599 3171 3263 Trade 6784 6282 6837 FIRE 2226 2067 2066 & Mgmt.

Prof. Tech.

885 779 785 Services & Food Accom.

1588 1524 1320 Services Education 1716 1648 1654 Health & Welfare Services 2414 2233 2293 Other Services 2081 1987 1788 Government Services 34055 32058 32643 GDP at Basic Prices 1513 1559 1834 Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies 35568 33617 34477 GDP at Market Prices 5.8% -2.5% 5.5% Edmonton Growth Rate (%) 6.1% 1.4% 5.3% Alberta Growth Rate (%) Prepared by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, February 2006 Source: Statistics Canada Notes: (1) GDP at Market Prices is obtained by adding Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies to GDP at Basic Prices.

(2) Preliminary Estimates - Subject to Revision (3) GDP by industry estimates based on Statistics Canada information, which is only available to 1998 under the North American Industry Classification (NAICS) Industry

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee,April 2006

2001 89 2181 4106 3199 907 2164 3805 7454 2235 953 1906 1908 2339 2294 35542 1467 37009 4.0% 1.7%

2002 92 2324 4645 3306 781 2030 3984 7906 2643 997 1869 2008 2479 2129 37191 1737 38929 5.2% 2.5%

2003 169 2584 4511 3339 968 2360 4324 7038 2904 1000 1901 2023 2674 2343 38136 1620 39756 2.1% 3.1%

2004 189 2447 4829 3475 1098 2283 4676 8234 2689 975 1998 2125 2618 2343 39978 1698 41676 4.8% 4.3%

Page 41

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

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Appendix III..'

Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area city

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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011

MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST COMMITTEE

Jong Huang (Chairperson) Chief Economist Planning and Development Department

K.L. Siu Director, Infrastructure Planning Asset Management & Public Works Department

Paul Tsounis Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

Stan Dilworth City Assessor Planning and Development Department

Dana Oikawa Manager, Economic and Load Forecasting EPCOR Corporate

Linda Chan Manager, Regulatory and Capital Assets EPCOR Water Services

Terry Dew Director, Knowledge Management Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

Steven Friedenthal Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee Director, Evaluation & Monitoring Transportation and Streets Department

Angela Muhlenfeld Analyst Edmonton Police Services

Robert Higgins Planner II Planning & Development Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Community and Emergency Services Department

Nila Chowdhury Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Christina Ionescu Economist Corporate Services Department

Gord Dodd Director, Fleet Support Asset Management and Public Works

I For more economic information, please contact:

S

Jong Huang

(780) 496-6068

jong.huang@edmonton.ca

Paul Tsounis

(780) 496-6070

paul.tsounis@edmonton.ca

0For more social information, please contact: *

*

Steven Friedenthal

(780) 496-4782

Ail 2006 Preared Committee, April Forecast Committee City Forecast by: City Prepared b:

Steve.Friedenthal@edmonton.ca