Edmonton (Alta.) - 2001-2007 - Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004-2009 (2004-03)

Edmonton Socio-Economic

OUTLOOK 2004- 2009

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EDMONTON SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2004- 2009

Prepared by:

City Forecast Committee March 2004

Copyright Š 2004 by the City of Edmonton Planningand Development Department . c/o: 3 rd Floor,City Hall Sir Winston Churchill Square.

Edmonton, Alberta, Canada TSJ 2R7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in good faith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liabilityfrom any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................

1

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ........................................ 1

SOCIAL OUTLOOK.............................................. 2 IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK.............3 BUSINESS SECTOR ...

............................... 3

GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR....... 3 FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS .......................... 3

INTRO DU CTIO N ..................................................

4

PART 1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.....................4 U N ITED STATES ........................ .......................

4 CANADA ..................................................... 4 Prime Lending Rate ........................................

5 Exchange Rate ...............................................

6

ALBERTA...........................................................

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK ......................... 18 OVERVIEW ....................................................

KEY SOCIAL ISSUES ......................................

18 19 Social Implications of Demographic Change. 19 Families ...................................................... 20 Employment and Incomes..............................21 Household Spending ...................................... 22 The Ageing Population .................................. 22 22 Health..............................................................

Education .....................................................

23 Social Services.............................................23 Housing and Homelessness............................ 24 Crime........ ...................... 24 Recreation and Leisure................................... 25 Gaming.........................................................

25

6

APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by

2002 ...............................................................

6 Growth will continue in 2003 .......................... 6 Oil and Gas.................................................... 6 ....................... 7 Net M igration..........................

EDM ONTON .............................................. 8 Economic growth......................

Demographic changes ...................................... 89 D emographic changes .................................... 9 Employment .....................................

10 Unemployment Rate............................O1 Unepla o yen t Rate........ .. ..................... .10 Inflation .................................

10 B uilding Permits............................................. 11 Non-Residential Construction Price........... 12 Housing Market ....................................... 12 Rental arket ................. K.......................13 .........

13 Rental M Market ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS.... ............13 Upside Risks to the Outlook........................ 13 Downside Risks to the Outlook......................14

Industry ................................................................

26

APPENDIX II - Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry.............................................27 APPENDIX III - Edmonton Census M etropolitan Area ................................................

28

210

APPENDIX IV - Members of City Forecast Com m ittee .............................................................

29

TABLE 1 - Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators...........................15 TABLE 2 - City of Edmonton Population, 2002 2009........................................................................

16 TABLE 3 - Edmonton CMA Population, 2002 -

2009.........................................

17

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

*

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is prepared primarily for use as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's corporate and departmental business plans and budgets, the City's Capital Priorities Plan, and the City's Long Range Financial Plan.

Economic Outlook The economic outlook outlined in this report does not take into consideration the possible impacts of the Kyoto protocol.

United States

compensate for weakness in the beef industry. Continued strength in energy prices, investment in the energy related projects in Alberta, and healthy in-migration, will give the province 3.5% growth in 2005. Growth will moderate slightly between 2006 and 2009, averaging 3.1% over that time period, as decreased production in natural gas will e o as dc ee o tu lead to a slight reduction in energy expos.

Edmonton Edmonton's regional economic growth rate is expected to reach 3.9% in 2004, up from the estimated 3.5% growth rate in 2003, as high energy prices, strong investment in construction projects, healthy in-migration and low interest rates keep consumer spending strong. Growth will remain buoyant in 2005 at 3.7%, and will average 3.3% between 2006 and 2009, on the heels of continued strength in the energy industry.

Employment and Population

Growth in the United States is expected to reach 4% in 2004, up from 3.2% in 2003, primarily due to spill-over Employment in the city will also remain strong, with the effects from the government's aggressive fiscal and anticipated creation of 10,800 jobs in 2004 and 12,500 monetary policy initiatives introduced in 2003. Growth is jobs in 2005. The unemployment unemployment rate will fall slightly slightly to expected to slow to 3.2% in 2005, as interest rates, already 5% in 2004 from 5.1% in 2003, and fall furtherto 4.9% in at historical lows, begin to slowly increase by the end of 2005. A total of 64,800 newjobs are expected to be created 2004, dampening consumer expenditures. Growth is between 2004 and 2009, with the unemployment rate expected to average 3% for the remainder of the forecast falling to 4.7% over the same time time period. period, as global economic conditions remain strong.

Canada

The total population of the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is expected to reach just under 1 million people in 2004, and 707,000 for the of Edmonton. By Growth in Canada is expected to reach 2.8% in 2004, up 2009, it is estimated that the total willCity bejust over I million from 1.7% in 2003, but down from previous estimates of for the Edmonton CMA, and 751,000 for the City. Net the Edmonton CMIA, and 75 1,000 for the City. Net 3.5%, due to weak exports brought on by a strong Canadian .formigration is expected to remain strong for the Edmonton nn grt d et m rain dollar. As such, low Canadian inflation has given the Bank between andperiod.

9,500 migrants annually forecast duration of the 8,500 over theranging of Canada room to lower interest rates in an attempt to CMA, alleviate the dollar's ascent and improve upon exports. A depreciation of the dollar and a subsequent rebound in the export sector will give Canada a 3.2% growth rate in 2005.

Growth will average a healthy 2.9% for the remainder of the forecast period, A rremain Alberta w Growth in Alberta is expected to increase by 4% in 2004, prices, energy led by higher higher energy prices, low low interest interest rates, rates, and and continued ininvestment the energy sector, which will

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Housing Market Despite strong expected growth in 2004, the Edmonton housing market is expected to soften somewhat, but still at historically high levels. Edmonton City and CMA housing starts are expected to fall to 8,1 83 and 11,312 respectively in 2004, as the market adjusts to increased supply brought on by strong construction activity in 2003.

03 ciiyi togcntuto nb rates ruh interest pl Increasing in 2005 will soften the housing market further, bringing total City housing starts down to

Page 1

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 7,109 and CMA starts to 9,826. Over the 2006-2009 forecast period, housing starts in the City are expected to average 6,170 and for the Edmonton CMA around 8,700.

Inflation It is anticipated that the Edmonton CMA inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), will reach 2.7% in 2004, below previous estimates of 3.5%, and lower than the 5.3% witnessed in 2003. A sharp decline in inflation late in 2003 has led to the lower inflation outlook for 2004, as the prices for utilities have come down substantially. Also contributing to the lower inflation outlook for 2004 will be lower natural gas prices, particularly in comparison with those witnessed in the beginning of 2003 where prices were as high as $13.00 per GJ in February.

Rising interest rates by 2005 will push the inflation rate further down to 2.3%, and decline further to 2% by 2009.

Social Outlook Highlights from the Federal Speech from the Throne include: * More funding for health care and child care programs, and improved support for persons with disabilities, * Reinstatement of child protection legislation. * Enhanced initiatives for aboriginals. * Providing a share of gas tax revenue or other revenues, as well as GST relief, for municipalities, * Improvements to the Student Loan Program and Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP).

Highlights from the Alberta Provincial Speech from the Throne include: * An RESP contribution for all children born in 2005 and after. * Increased education funding and compulsory physical education classes for school children. * Organizing a Roundtable on Family Violence and Bullying, along with a promise for financial assistance for victims of family violence. * Funding formulas for local policing to be changed. * More services for seniors and a review of long-term care facilities. * Health and education initiatives for Aboriginals.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Canada's fertility rate has dropped to a new low - 1.49 children for every woman. Recent research has shown thatthis declining fertility rate is also common among many immigrant women. Once they have been in Canada for a few years their fertility drops to about the Canadian average. The decline is not as marked among women who immigrated from Asia and the Middle East.

Canada is now second only to Australia in terms of the proportion of its population that is foreign-born. As many as 46% of first-generation Canadians are from a nonEuropean background, which is a significant change from a few generations ago, when most were from Europe and the United States.

Recent immigrants to Canada have not been as successful at accumulating wealth as those who came to Canada prior to 1976. Over the last twenty years, earnings for immigrant males have dropped, and earnings for immigrant females have not been as great as those for Canadian-born women.

Alberta households have the highest spending levels in Canada.

Expenditures on transportation and communications accounted for much of the increase in recent years. Albertans also report the highest spending on health care.

Lower taxes and increased government transfers have meant higher after-tax incomes for many families. Families with children have as much as $10,000 more, while increases for elderly families average about $3,000 and lone-parent families have about $5,000 more.

The number of reported criminal code offences in Edmonton increased by 6% in 2003, driven largely by an increase in property crime. Violent crime decreased slightly from the previous year.

The amount of money Canadians have spent on gambling increased by over 400% between 1992 and 2002, and slightly over 5% of Canadians either are problem gamblers, or at risk of becoming problem gamblers.

Page 2

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK Business Sector Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: * slightly higher population growth, * strong employment growth, modest increase in wages and salaries, lower income and business taxes, therefore strength in > disposable income growth, > purchasing power growth, > consumer spending, and > demand for housing/rental units, * continued spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta, * moderating energy costs, * a large supply of relatively low-cost downtown office space, * moderate inflation and * a strong housing market.

However, during the same period, Edmonton businesses must adjust to: * shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations, * increased house prices and rental rates, * increased security and insurance costs as a result of increased concerns over terrorist activities, * potentially higher electricity costs, and * increased health care premium costs.

However, over the same period, Edmonton's government and public sector must deal with: * continued municipal infrastructure shortfalls, . continued excess supply of space and a slower increase in real estate prices in the downtown non-residential markets, * increased demand for municipal services as a result of growth pressures, e.g. roadways, transit, parkland, etc., * continued demand for government services in the areas of health, education and infrastructure as a result of the ageing population and positive net migration, * the number of potential retirees exceeding the number of first-time labour market entrants, * a shortage of affordable housing, and * homelessness.

Families and Individuals Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * increased government spending on health and education, * increased employment and income opportunities as well as higher after-tax incomes, *. further moderation in the extent of poverty.

However, Edmontonians must also deal with: * increased crime rates, and * a continuing wide gap between the haves and havenots in our society.

Government and the Public Sector Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: * continued strong economic growth in the province, * increased assessment base, and * increased spending on education and health care by the provincial government.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 3

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Weak economic activity during the first half of 2003 is responsible for the low interest rates witnessed in the U.S. today. These low rates, along with continued tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the U.S. budget deficit,

INTRODUCTION This report provides an economic and social analysis of the current and future changes in the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA - see for the years 2004 to 2009. The map in Appendix Ill) for the preparation of the reference outlook is used as a City ofEdmonton's2005-2007corporateanddepartmental business plans, 2005 departmental operating budgets, the 2005-09 Capital Priorities Plan, and the 2005-2014 Long Range Financial Plan. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses use the forecast for planning purposes. and social The City Forecast Committee monitors economic activities/trends throughout the year. The Committee prepares an outlook report semi-annually, in the spring and in the fall.

have put the U.S. dollar under pressure in foreign

exchange markets. In his presentation to Congress on February 11, 2004, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan noted that rates will remain low for a little while longer, but will have to increase eventually, perhaps by the latter half of 2004. However, the upcoming November Presidential Election may add uncertainty into the direction of U.S. interest rates, and contribute to continued volatility in the U.S. exchange rate.

Growth in the United States is expected to reach 4% in 2004, 3.2% in 2005, and average 3% over the rest of the forecast period, as higher interest rates in late 2004 and in 2005 soften consumer spending.

Economic Growth Quarterly United States and Canada

mammmummuil0

9

U.S.

8

.Canada

PART 1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK i

3-

The economic outlook outlined in this report does not take into consideration the possible impacts on the economy of the Kyoto protocol.

UNITED STATES The U.S. economy rebounded in the secondhalf of 2003, growing 3.2% for the year. The economy is expected to

3 QI Q2

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 QI Q2 03 Q4 QI Q2 Q3 Q4

2003 2002 2001 2000 Commilta.

Forecast City Statisics Canada.

Depanmen ofCommerc, Sour: U.S.

CANADA

grow at 4% in 2004, 3.2% in 2005 and it is expected to

average 3% between 2006 and 2009.

Growth in the United States reached 3.2% in 2003, due to 8.2% and 4.1% annualised growth rates in the third and fourth quarters respectively. This increase in economic activity during the latter half of 2003 was fuelled primarily by increased personal consumption expenditure, federal defence spending and non-residential business investment, brought on by lower personal income taxes and lower interest rates.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

The Canadian economy grew 1.7% in 2003. Growth will rebound to 2.8% in 2004, lower than previous estimates of 3.5%, due to weak exports brought on by a strong dollar.Growth will rebound to 3.2% in 2005 and average 2.9% for the remainderof theforecastperiod The economy grew 3.8% at annualized rates in the fourth quarter of 2003, up from 1.3% in the third quarter, as exports rebounded. However, the economy grew only 1.7% for the year as a whole as the SARS outbreak, the BSE-related beef export ban, and weak exports brought

Page 4

0

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•• •• •• •

• •

•• • ••

• • •

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 on by a strong Canadian dollar all hindered growth during most of the year. The Canadian beef industry was hit with more bad news in December with the confirmation of a second case of BSE in the Washington area, in which the cow was imported from Alberta.

It is expected that the Canadian economy will expand by 2.8% in 2004, lower than the previous forecast of 3.5%, due to weaker than expected exports brought on by continued strength of the Canadian dollar. However, low Canadian inflation rates have given the Bank of Canada room to lower interest rates in an attempt to control the exchange rate problem, and improve conditions in Canada's export market. These lower interest rates, along with a subsequent weaker Canadian dollar, will flow into 2005 and will help contribute to 3.2% increase in growth.

Growth will average approximately 3% between 2006 and 2009 as strong global economic conditions keep exports healthy.

It is expected that the Bank of Canada will lower its overnight rate further during 2004 to combat the strong Canadian dollar, leading to a subsequent reduction in the prime lending rate to an annual average of 4% for 2004, down from 4.7% in 2003. Improved economic conditions from lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and stronger exports by late 2004 and most of 2005 will lead to an increase in the prime rate by the latter half of 2005, bringing the annual average to 4.2% for that year. The prime rate will average 4% for the remainder of the forecast period.

Prime Lending rate United States and Canada

IMMIIII•1111111 10

9 8 7

6 5

a.

4

3

Economic Growth

2 1 0

United States and Canada IMIMIIIMININI••111111

4 "e- 3 p. 2

,i A

2000

4 2001

1.

2002

#

•

+

2003

Source: Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve Board

O U.S. • Canada S.a

Prime Lending Rate Forecast ImmommummIll

4 g.

.,..,

0

+

4 4

,i :

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

7 6

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistics Canada, City Forecast Committee

5

—

Th

4 3

Prime Lending Rate

2 1

The prime lending rate in Canada increased 0.5 percentage points to 5% between January and April 2003, before easing to 4.5% by the end of the year, averaging 4.7% annually. The prime rate has since decreased a further 25 basis points in 2004 and currently sits at 4.25%. The drop in the prime rate follows the drop in the Bank of Canada's overnight rate from 3% in July 2003 to its current level of 2.5%. This intervention by the Bank of Canada was brought on by low inflationary expectations in the economy and the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar, which has hampered exports and economic growth.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

-

.5,

0 2001 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Bank of Canada, City Forecast Committee

Page 5

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Exchange Rate The Canadian dollar strengthened dramatically through most of 2003, rising from US$0.635 at the beginning of the year to US$0.77 by the end of December, and averaging US$0.71 for the year as a whole. This appreciation is due primarily to wide interest rate differentials between the United States and Canada, weak U.S. growth at the end of 2002 and the beginning of 2003, and strengthening commodity prices. We expect the dollar to average US$0.760 in 2004, US$0.730 in 2005, and average US$0.70 for the remainder of the forecast period.

year-over-year basis in November, and are approximately 4% higher on a year-to-date basis. Despite decreasing by 6.7% in 2003, housing starts remained strong in Alberta, considering that 2002 was the second best annual performance since 1979. However, the Alberta beef industry was hit with more bad news in December with another confirmed case of a cow infected with BSE in the Washington area that was imported from Alberta, which may prolongweakness in theAlberta beef industry further into the future.

Economic Growth Alberta and Edmonton mmmmmhii l

Canada-US Exchange Rate s5

Forecast llmmm

muuuu iii

IAlberta

4

glll

0.78

ll Edmonton 1

3

0.76

3

0.7 0.72 S0.7

1

0.68 X 0.66 S0.64 0.62 0.6

3

0 2001

0.58

2002 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Soume:Statitic Canada. Ciy Forest Commitee

0.56 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source:Bank of Canada, City Forecast Committ.

2004

Growth in Alberta is expected to increase by 4% in 2004, led by higher energy prices, low interest rates, and continued investment in the energy sector. Depreciation Due to high energyprices,growth in theAlberta economy of the Canadian dollar by the latter half of 2004 brought is expectedto reach 4% in 2004, 3.5% in 2005, andaver- on by lower interest rates will also improve non-energy related exports, particularly in manufacturing, which fell age 3.1%for the rest of theforecast period by 9.2% in the third quarter in 2003 compared to the same time period in 2002.

ALBERTA

2003 Despite the export ban levied on Alberta beef by several countries from the single reported case of Mad Cow Disease in May 2003, economic growth is expected to reach 3% in 2003, led primarily by low interest rates, a strong housing sector, and continued investment in the energy sector. Shortages in North American natural gas supplies have led to a 36% increase in active rigs drilling in 2003 from 2002, strengthening conventional energy investment, Low interest rates have also contributed to an increase in consumer spending, as retail sales increased 2.4% on a

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Oil and Gas World oil prices rose sharply in 2003, driven by the war in Iraq, the post-war sabotage of Iraqi pipelines, additional supply disruptions in Venezuela and Nigeria, the pick-up in world oil demand associated with the global economic recovery, and the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar.

Consequently, the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased from an average of US$26.09 per barrel in 2002 to US$31.14 in 2003.

Page 6

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

*Edmonton

Although this was in line with expectations in last October's outlook, the current forecast calls for oil prices throughout the forecast period to remain significantly higher - from US$2 to $5 - than previously expected.

Thus, the WTI price is expected to average US$30.45 in 2004, fall to US$25.90 in 2007, before rising to US$26.25 in 2009.

Much ofthis increase was also anticipated in last October's forecast. Looking forward, the current forecast calls for gas prices to be higher than previously expected, but only by $0.15 to $0.50 per GJ. Consequently, natural gas prices at the AECO storage facility are expected to average Can$5.85 per GJ in 2004, drop to $4.75 in 2007, before rising to $4.95 in 2009.

The rationale for this upward shift in the forecast is based on anumber of factors. First, world oil demand has finally broken out of the doldrums, led by a strong U.S. recovery and the emergence of China as a growing economic power.

Second, last fall's signing of a 5-year oil and gas cooperation agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia signals an effort by the world's two largest oil producers to manage world oil prices in their mutual interests. Third, evidence of increased terrorist activity within Saudi Arabia raises a concern about possible supply disruptions in the Saudi kingdom. Fourth, concerns about the possible

Alberta Natural Gas Prices

m $7.00oo $6.00

5.-

$4.00 $3.00

$0.00

in OPEC control over global production, appear to have so

(US$/bbl) IlllmmWiill s35 so 25

-

20

-

-making

mom m

-

$1.00oo

OPEC, and the consequent reduction

World Oil Prices

-

$2.00

the consequent reduction andfrom of Iraq OPEC, departure

receded.

(Cdn$/GJ) gIii

m•

. ..

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.c omo.

In this case, the stronger oil price outlook, tighter US environmental regulations and declining production levels in Alberta contribute to the increased forecast for natural gas prices. In particular, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board's (AEUB) recent decision to shut-in gas pools that come into contact with bitumen deposits has already shut down 40 per cent ofthe gas production in northeast Alberta, the supply situation even tighter.

mNet

Migration

5

S2001 2002 2003 242005 2006 2007 2008 2009 So-

City

Commil

Strength in the Alberta economy over the last several years

has brought approximately 211,000 people to the province between 1997 to 2002. Total net interprovincial migration

Early in 2003, a cold snap, coupled with a record monthly storage withdrawal, drove the AECO gas price up as high as Can$13 per GJ towards the end of February, as the market recognized the inability of current supplies to keep pace with demand. Although prices did ease throughout the remainder of the year, high oil prices limited fuelswitching opportunities, keeping gas prices above those levels justified by the fundamentals. For the year as a whole, the AECO price rose even more sharply than oil prices, increasing from an average of Can$3.83 per GJ in 2002 to $6.31 in 2003.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

is estimated to have reached 40,000 in 2002, an 18% increase from 2001.

Migration is expected to fall slightly in 2003 to 35,200, but still remain at high levels when compared to historical values. It is estimated that migration will remain around 35,000 in 2004, and average 31,000 peryear between 2005 and 2009, as stronger growth in the rest of Canada reduces the need for people to move to Alberta for employment.

Page 7

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Commercial/Retail

Net Migration (*) Forecast

*

Continued expansion of the $250 million South Edmonton Common retail complex by Cameron and Grosvenor International.

*

$100 million for the Shivam Park Auto Mall and Shopping Centre in Sherwood Park by Shivam Developments.

Alberta, Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Edmonton (City)

SCorp.

45,000

40,000 40,000 35s,ooo 30,000 -

~e

.

25,000 20,000 -

Commercial/Retail and Residential

15,000ooo 10,000 -

-

s,000oo

*

Residential

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

*

Economic growth The Edmonton region is estimated to have grown at 3.5% in 2003. It is expected to continue to expand at a solid 3.9% in 2004, 3.7% in 2005, and average 3.3% over the 2006-2009periodL The strength in both consumer spending and the activity in the housing market in 2002 spilled into 2003, giving the Edmonton regional economy an estimated growth rate of 3.5%. Strong energy prices and a strengthening U.S. economy in the second half of 2003 also fuelled economic growth, as the region's economy continued to benefit from economic spin-offs from investment in northern Alberta.

The Major Projects List, published by Alberta Economic Development, shows that all proposed, announced, recently completed and under construction projects in northern

Alberta total $71 billion, or 86% of the total value of major projects in all of Alberta.

Investment activity in northern Alberta, along with investment initiatives around the Edmonton region, will lead to both strong employment and migration, which will add to the total customer base and keep consumer spending strong in the forecast period. Growth in the Edmonton region is expected to increase 3.9% in 2004, 3.7% in 2005, and average 3.3% between 2006 and 2009.

The following projects will have a significant impact on the Edmonton economy over the next five years:

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

development

by

Qualico

Developments.

Source:Statistica Canada, Cily of Edmonton Planning & oDevelopmentDepartmont LNumbers are for July of previousyear to June 31 of currentyear

EDMONTON

$250 million for Station Lands Commercial

$120 million for the Centre in the Park retail/ commercial development by various developers.

Infrastructure *

*

*

$210 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension to Calgary Trail by Alberta Transportation.

Transportation. $270 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension in south east Edmonton. $100 million to extend the LRT to the Jubilee Auditorium by the City of Edmonton.

*

$638 million to extend the LRT from the Jubilee Auditorium to Heritage Mall by the City of Edmonton.

Institutional *

$142 million for the Alberta Heart Institute by Capital Health.

*

$97 million for the Tower Wing at the Royal Alexandra Hospital by Capital Health.

*

$165 million for the Health Innovation Research Centre by the University of Alberta.

Oil, Gas and Oilsands Bitumen Heartland' Bitumen for 'Alberta 'Alberta Heartland' $600 million million for * $600 Inc. in Strathcona Energy by BA project Upgrader Strathcona Upgrader project by BA Energy County. $220 million for Strathcona refinery upgrades by Imperial Oil. * $1.2 billion for conversion to upgrade bitumen by $1.2 billion for conversion to upgrade bitumen by Petro-Canada Oil.

*

Page 8

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 2), while the population of the Edmonton CMA is expected to increase by 69,000 reaching 1.069 million (Table 3).

Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is expected to range between 8,500 to 9,500 between 2004 to 2009.

Summary of Major Projects ($ millions) Sector

Northern Alberta Alberta

Agriculture and Related Chemicals and Petroleums

Commercial/Retail Commercial/Retail and Residential Forestry and Related Infrastructure Institutional Manufacturing Mining

Oil, Gas and Oilsands Other Industrial Pipeline Power Residential

Telecommunications Tourism/Recreation Total

Total

176

181

38

38

1,405 777 431 4,507 2,607

1,975 1,096 431 8,132 4,353

59 40

102 40

52,773

53,046

44 1,746 2,672 700

69 1,807 4,986 1,305

300 2,697 70,972

300 4,243 82,104

Sources: Alberta Economic Development, January 2004 STotals may not add up due to rounding

$600 Million for Genesee Power Plant Phase 3 (490MW) in Leduc County by EPCOR Utilities Inc. *din $200 million for a subdivision in Spruce Grove

by Signature Developments.

Tourism/Recreation

.

*

$145 million expansion of West Edmonton Mall.

*

$250 million for the new Provincial Museum by the Western Canadian Museum Foundation.

Demographic changes The City of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 44,000 by 2009, reaching just over 750,000 (see Table

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

increase and births decline as the population ages.

Population Forecast Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Edmonton (City) l mmul l hill 1200oo 1000oo soo 60oo

C400 200oo

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Canada. Cty Forecast Commitee So...: Statisics

The City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA population

Residential *

increase, is expected to decline as the number of deaths

continues to age. The 2001 Census of Canada indicates

Power *

The other component of population change, natural

that the median age for the City of Edmonton's population increased from 33.8 in 1996 to 35.3 in 2001. The median age for the Edmonton CMA is the second youngest (after Calgary) of the country's ten largest urban areas. The number of people aged under 40 in the Edmonton CMA is expected to increase by 18,000 over the forecast period compared with an increase of 51,000 for people aged 40 and over. The largest increase by 2009 is for people aged the 50s age group (just over 26,000 for the CMA).

Our aging population has a direct impact on the size of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and the labour force, which is comprised of people either working or looking for work. As the working age population ages, more people will leave the labour force than enter it.

The population of the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA have broadly similar age profiles, with the CMA having a slightly larger share of people aged under 20 and the City having larger share of young adults and people aged 60 and over.

Page 9

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Unemployment Rate

Edmonton (C.M.A.) Population Change by Age Forecast (2004-2009)

mmmm

III

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in the Edmonton region in 2003 was 5.1%. It is expected tofall to 5.0% in 2004, 4.9% in 2005, and average 4.8% for the rest of the forecast period

30,000 25,000 15,000

20,000

•the

1o,ooo 5,000ooo _ ._

*

0-

... ooo

-

ss

'continue

Cn... as.C., Fo..ca....

Comm,a.

Continued strong employment growth and migration kept

unemployment rate in the Edmonton region at 5.1% in 2003, the same rate that was witnessed in 2002. Healthy employment growth and slightly weakening migration will to keep the unemployment rate low in the forecast period, reaching 5.0% in 2004, 4.9% in 2005, and averaging 4.8% for the 2006-2009 period.

This changing age structure has important implications for various sectors of the economy:

Labour Market Forecast Edmonton (C.M.A.)

ingmmmaill

* the growth in the number of people in the age group between 25 and 34 will increase demand for apartments and first-time buyer housing; * the large increase in the 50s and 60s age group will support demand for more expensive housing and 'empty nester' or retirement housing, and * the high growth in the number of people aged 65 and over will increase demand for social and health care services.

Employment

-

620o 600

5

5 40 00 500-4.

48o

440-

460 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Soue. SlatisltiesCanada, City Forea

s.2 -s.1 -s -4.9 4.

4.

4.5

Committee

The Edmonton region is expected to create 10,800 new jobs in 2004, 12,500 in 2005 and average 10,300 per year over the 2006-09 period.

Inflation

Total employment in 2003 for the Edmonton CMA reached

moderate to 2.3% in 2005 and average 2.1% between

537,000 with the creation of 14,600 net newjobs, primarily in the services producing sector, which represents 94% of this increase.

2006-2009.

High energy prices and strong investment in mega-projects in northern Alberta and the Edmonton region will keep employment growth reasonably strong in the forecast period. Employment growth in the Edmonton CMA is expected to be 10,800 in 2004, 12,500 in 2005, and average 10,300 in the 2006-2009 period. A total of 64,800 new jobs will be created between 2004 and 2009.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

The Edmonton region inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% in 2004, down from 5.3% in 2003. We expect it to

Edmonton's inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has decreased from its high levels in the beginning of 2003. Inflation was 7.6% in January, rising to 9.1% in March, before moderatingto 1.3% in December, averaging 5.3% for the year as a whole. The variability and high rates witnessed at the beginning of 2003 were attributable to high utility prices, particularly for natural gas and electricity.

Page 10

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Because the inflation rate has fallen dramatically since the middle of 2003, we expect that inflation for the Edmonton region will average 2.7% in 2004, well below our previous estimate of 3.5% in the Fall Outlook.

Contributing to the lower inflation outlook for 2004 will be lower natural gas prices, particularly in comparison with those witnessed in the beginning of 2003, where prices for natural gas were as high as $13 per GJ. Rising interest rates by 2005 will push the inflation rate further down to 2.3%, and decline further to 2% by 2009.

Inflation Rate Edmonton (C.M.A.)

Building Permits In 2003, the value of Edmonton City building permits moderated slightly from the previous year by 5.9% to $1.075 billion. It is expected that the value of building permits will fall further in 2004 to $1.026 billion, and remain relatively stable thereafterat an average level of $1.01 billion between 2005-2009.

The value of building permits fell 5.9% to $1.075 billion in 2003, due to a slight weakening in the single unit housing market. Commercial sector building permits decreased by 17%, while the value of residential sector permits decreased by 2.7%.

mimuumMIII

12

*

Building Permits Edmonton (City)

-6mmmiumuniii

2U

140-

0

2002

2000

2001

2002

21)W3

a

A

60" 2003

40

Canada Souce: Stliszks

20 .0

J

F

Mi

A

NI

J

J

A

S;

0

N

D

Inflation Rate Forecast Edmonton (C.M.A.) EE l 0EIII

*II 6 5

*a 2

- tO * 0increased 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Plang and Developm

A slight weakening of the housing market in 2004 will see building permits falling slightly from their 2003 levels to value of $1.03 billion. Building permits are expected to remain steady at an average level of $1.01 billion between 2005 and 2009 as interest rates slowly rise and the housing market softens. Permits will increase slightly by 2009 as investment in oil sands related projects in the Fort McMurray and Edmonton regions add some strength

to the City's housing market.

C Soure:Statilic Canada. Ciy Fo

So-

rest Commilo0

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 11

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Building Permit Forecast Edmonton (City)

nImMllul

ill

oo

employment growth contributed to a strong Edmonton housing market in 2003. Total Edmonton City housing starts increased from 8,822 in 2002 to 8,956 units in 2003, while EdmontonCMA housing starts fell slightly to 12,380 from 12,582 units in 2002.

1000 600 =600

5-Year Mortgage Rate

400

I

200___________EEE 0 16

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

14 12

Souna: Planning end Development.Cily ForecastConmmi0llr

Non-Residential Construction Price

6

4'

2"

.

Due to continued strength in energy industry development in northern Alberta and various project investment initiatives in the Edmonton region, the non-residential

Sou..

BankOf Canada

building construction cost index will increase from 2.7% in 2003 to 3.5% in 2004 and 3% in 2005, before settling

Housing Starts

down to 1.6% by 2009.

Edmonton (C.M.A.)

immmmmml Edmonton's Non-Residential Price Construction IlllWWWllll

1800

0,A

1600 in

. 1400 ooo

s

800 -

~400-

600

~200)

3

o 2

211011)

20011

20112

2003

Source: SIaisl cs Canada

Average single-detached house prices also increased

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SC

.

s..atcsCnada, Cily F..rcas. Commlae

Housing Market Housing Market

Housing starts remainedstrong in 2003, reaching12,380 in the Edmonton region and 8,956 in the City. We expect housing starts in the City to be 8,183 in 2004 and 7,109 in 2005, and averageapproximately 6,170 between 2006 and 2009.

Continued low mortgage rates, strong net migration and

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

substantially in 2003, increasing by 10.8%, double the general rate of inflation.

Housing starts for the City are expected to soften in the

forecast period, but still remain at historically high levels, due to continued economic growth. Edmonton City housing starts are expected to fall to 8,183 in 2004, as the market adjusts to increased supply brought on by strong construction activity in 2003. Increasing interest rates in 2005 will soften the housing market further, bringing total City housing starts down to 7,109. Over the 2006-2009 forecast period, housing starts in the City are expected to average 6,170 and for the Edmonton CMA around 8,700.

Page 12

*

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Housing Starts Forecast Edmonton (City) and Edmonton (C.M.A.)

*

mmimammlli

14,000

oCity

12,ooo000

S8,000 6,000

'

pleted rental units, which increase the need for landlords to offer incentives, will keep these rental price increases at a moderate level.

The downtown office vacancy rate decreased to 11.8% in 2003 from 12.3% in 2002. Vacancy rates are expected to moderate further to 11.3% in 2004, 11.1% in 2005, and average 9.5% between 2006 and 2009.

4,000 2,000

0

Vacancy rate Forecast

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Edmonton (City) Source.

C.MH.C.,CityForecast Committee 12

Rental Market

,EApartment 10office space

10~

8 6

The apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton averaged

3.4% in 2003 and is expected to decrease slightly to 3% in 2004 and 2005. The downtown office vacancy rate in 2003 was 11.8% and is expected to decrease slightly

to 11.3% in 2004 and 11.1% in 2005.

The annual Rental Market Survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) pegs the apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton at 3.4% in December 2003. This is up from the 1.7% rate in 2002 and the 0.9% rate in 2001.

The 1.7 percentage point increase in 2003, the largest amongst all Canada's CMA's, can be attributable to the significant increase in the construction of rental units and low mortgage rates, which have lured renters into home ownership.

It is expected that the apartment vacancy rate will decrease slightly to 3% for both 2004 and 2005, as strong employment growth and net migration will keep the demand for rental units healthy. However, the increased supply in rental units, brought on by increased construction activity in 2002 and 2003, will keep the vacancy rate at higher levels compared to those witnessed between 1998 and 2002.

After two consecutive years of large increases in average rental rates, rents moderated in 2003, rising by 2.2%, compared to 7.7% in the previous year. The CMHC is expecting rents to increase in 2004, as higher priced units come on-stream and landlords deal with high utility, insurance and repair costs. Increased competition from newly con-

Prepared by. City Forecast Committee, March 2004

C

4 2

0 .

2001 2002

2003 2004

2005 2006 2007 2008

2009

Source: C.M.H.C., CityForecast Committee

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS Upside the Outlook Outlook to the Risks to Upside Risks Continued tensions in the middle east, brought on by the aftermath of the war on Iraq by the United States and threats of continued terrorism, could disrupt oil supplies and fuel volatility in world energy markets. This may translate into higher energy prices, which would benefit overall economic activity in Alberta. Also, a quick resolution to the Mad Cow Crisis could also prove beneficial to Alberta's Agriculture industry.

In addition, further depreciation of the Canadian dollar, more than what is suggested in this forecast, will increase exports and economic growth in the national and regional economy.

Page 13

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Downside Risks to the Outlook A sustained increase in energy prices may dampen growth in the United States and the rest of the world economy as increased inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers, hampering Canadian and Alberta exports. On the flip-side, a strengthening world economy may lead to an increase in non-OPEC oil supplies to meet increased oil demand, putting a strain on OPEC market share, which would drive down the price of oil. In such a case, planned investment in the Alberta energy sector could be jeopardised and provincial government revenues reduced.

Recent U.S. National Energy Policies are proposing an increase in domestic energy supplies, including the continued development of nuclear and coal-fired power generation. The adoption of this approach would reduce the emphasis on gas-fired generating plants, slow the A concerted effort to meet the greenhouse gas objectives of the Kyoto protocol through a mandated increase in the reliance on natural gas would increase both its demand and price, and would require expanded drilling programs and pipeline facilities in the province. Whether such a change would increase overall economic activity inAlberta and Edmonton would depend on the extent to which other industries might be damaged by these and other climate change provisions.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, March 2004

Page 14

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Actual/Estimate Indicator

I

Forecast

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 United States, Canada and Alberta 25.94 26.09 31.14 30.45 27.40 5.91 3.83 6.31 5.85 5.30

2006

2007

2008

2009

25.95 4.85

25.90 4.75

26.00 4.85

26.25 4.95

0.3 1.9 1.2 5.81 0.646 33.8

2.4 3.3 3.2 4.21 0.637 40.0

3.0 3.0 3.0 4.00 0.700 30.3

Net Migration - CMA(000) (4)

7.9

12.5

- City(000) (4) Population - CMA(000) (5) - City(000) (5)

4.3

World Oil Price (US$/bbl) (1) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) (2) Economic Growth Rate (% change)(3) United States Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (%) Exchange Rate(US$/Cdn$) Net Migration (Alberta) (000) (4)

3.2 1.7 3.0* 4.70 0.714 35.2*

4.0 2.8 4.0 4.00 0.760 35.2

3.2 3.2 3.5 4.20 0.730 33.3

3.0 2.8 3.3 4.20 0.720 30.2

3.0 2.8 3.0 4.20 0.720 30.4

3.0 3.0 3.2 4.00 0.700 30.3

9.5*

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.6

6.7*

6.7

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.5

6.7

954

967

985*

1,000

1,013

1,028

1,041

1,055

1,069

678

686

698*

707

716

725

734

742

751

1.9* 505 4.9 2.2

3.5* 522 5.1 2.9

3.5* 537 5.1 5.3

3.9 548 5.0 2.7

3.7 560 4.9 2.3

3.2 568 5.0 2.3

3.3 579 4.7 2.1

3.4 591 4.7 2.1

3.2 602 4.7 2.0

0.9 11.4

1.7 12.3

3.4 11.8

3.0 11.3

3.0 11.1

2.8 9.6

2.9 9.5

2.9 9.5

2.7 9.2

4,811 2,815

8,822 4,158

8,956 3,857

8,183 3,633

7,109 3,485

6,316 3,389

6,081 3,391

6,117 3,426

6,148 3,436

Edmonton

Economic Growth Rate (CMA)(%) Employment (CMA)(000) Unemployment Rate(CMA)(%) Inflation Rate CPI(CMA)(%) Vacancy Rate (%) Apartment (CMA, Oct) Downtown Office (the City, Dec) Housing Starts (Units) City -Total - Single Family - Multi-Family

CMA

-Total - Single Family - Multi-Family Building Permit Value -City ($million) Non-Res Construction Price (% change)

9.5

1,996

4,664

5,099

4,550

3,625

2,928

2,689

2,692

2,711

7,855 4,959 2,896 905 3.2

12,582 6,861 5,721 1,142 2.1

12,380 6,391 5,989 1,075 2.7

11,312 5,995 5,318 1,026 3.5

9,826 5,675 4,151 1,015 3.0

8,859 5,548 3,311 1,015 2.3

8,652 5,594 3,059 1,014 2.0

8,717 5,655 3,063 1,009 1.9

8,751 5,671 3,080 1,017 1.6

SEstimates

Sources: Actual/Estimate: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, CB Richard Ellis, Canadian Petroleum Association, Alberta Economic Development and The City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department Forecast: City Forecast Committee, March 2004 Notes: 1.World oil prices are for West Texas intermediate crude at Cushing, Oklahoma inU.S. dollars.

2.Natural gas prices are AECO 30-Day Spot Natural Gas Price (Can$/GJ) 3.The U.S., Canada and Alberta economic growth rates are for real GDP at market price.

4.Numbers are for July 1of previous year to June 31 of current year.

5.The 2001 figures are post-censal estimates by Statistics Canada, which are different from the actual 2001 Canada Census.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 15

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Table 2: City of Edmonton Population, 2002 - 2009 0 -4

2002 38,883

2003 39,188

2004 39,333

2005 39,611

2006 40,356

2007 40,761

2008 41,258

2009 41,739

5 -9

40,236

39,639

39,106

38,767

37,922

38,021

38,109

38,194

10 - 14

42,717

42,717

42,352

41,676

40,983

40,027

39,278

38,723

15 - 19

46,172

46,203

46,336

46,393

46,498

46,544

46,423

46,033

20 - 24

57,336

59,290

60,533

61,396

61,995

62,267

62,038

62,117

25 -29

59,397

60,902

62,228

63,368

64,123

64,964

66,425

67,524

30 - 34

53,342

54,201

54,687

55,359

56,482

57,992

59,001

60,135

35 - 39

54,955

53,406

52,327

51,999

52,221

52,264

52,761

53,135

40 -44

58,252

58,657

58,403

57,582

56,066

54,655

52,912

51,798

45 - 49

53,734

55,628

56,901

57,782

58,507

58,746

58,975

58,687

50 - 54

42,417

43,731

45,786

47,856

49,973

51,913

53,584

54,762

55 - 59

32,341

34,585

36,494

38,534

40,243

41,016

42,171

44,117

60 - 64

25,733

26,876

28,080

29,268

30,709

33,275

35,500

37,454

65-69

23,100

23,512

23,893

24,411

25,073

25,917

27,002

28,178

70 -74

21,088

21,460

21,664

21,796

21,917

22,115

22,458

22,803

75 - 79

18,015

18,352

18,887

19,440

20,022

20,389

20,748

20,997

80 -84

10,193

10,995

11,592

12,080

12,380

12,682

12,850

13,189

85+

7,948

8,316

8,669

9,129

9,727

10,323

10,974

11,474

Total

685,859 697,657 707,271 716,450 725,197 733,869 742,467 751,059

Prepared by City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, March 2004

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 16

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Table 3: Edmonton CMA Population, 2002 - 2009 0-4

2002 56,062

2003 56,640

2004 56,957

2005 57,462

2006 58,651

2007 59,266

60,040

2009 60,806

5-9

61,138

60,340

59,626

59,207

58,019

58,272

58,605

58,839

10-14

66,783

66,912

66,461

65,521

64,543

63,149

62,079

61,294

15 -19

69,736

69,896

70,215

70,444

70,757

70,945

70,848

70,342

20- 24

73,224

75,867

77,573

78,806

79,701

80,156

79,993

80,241

25 - 29

75,124

77,183

79,030

80,624

81,710

82,917

84,929

86,488

30- 34

72,460

73,766

74,557

75,597

77,234

79,441

80,977

82,685

35- 39

78,677

76,589

75,151

74,784

75,224

75,426

76,273

76,944

40 - 44

84,985

85,728

85,511

84,458

82,385

80,452

78,021

76,502

45-49

78,055

80,958

82,961

84,398

85,613

86,114

86,600

86,321

50 - 54

63,206

65,259

68,433

71,645

74,959

78,029

80,702

82,626

55 - 59

48,629

52,121

55,096

58,264

60,920

62,202

64,087

67,157

60 - 64

36,219

37,909

39,679

41,422

43,547

47,316

50,593

53,424

65 -69

30,698

31,302

31,869

32,619

33,568

34,756

36,284

37,925

70 -74

26,926

27,447

27,759

27,974

28,180

28,484

28,974

29,467

75-79

20,332

20,920

21,583

22,268

22,977

23,509

23,905

24,156

80 - 84

13,657

14,514

15,245

15,734

16,158

16,416

16,849

17,360

85+

10,992

11,516

12,062

12,855

13,664

14,549

15,288

15,977

Total

2 0 08

966,903 984,866 999,769 1,014,082 1,027,812 1,041,399 1,055,047 1,068,554

Prepared by City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, March, 2004

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 17

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK OVERVIEW The February 2, 2004 Federal Speech from the Throne introduced several initiatives that may affect Edmonton's social outlook:

A New Deal for Municipalities: * Discussions towards providing a share of gas tax revenues or alternate measures to achieve the same goals. * Full relief from the Goods and Service Tax for municipalities.

Helping Communities Help Themselves: * A broader range of programs to support agencies involved in social entrepreneurship. * Continued efforts on the Voluntary Sector Initiative, to strengthen not-for-profit organizations and promote volunteerism.

*

Culture: * Review of arts and culture policies and federal cultural institutions. * Improved. resources to support minority language communities. communities.

Persons with Disabilities: * Improved education and workplace supports and accommodation for people with disabilities. * Tax changes for persons with disabilities and fami-

Education: * Alberta Centennial Education Savings Plan - every Alberta child born during and after 2005 will receive $500 towards a Registered Education Savings

Health Care: to transfers to health-care transfers in health-care $2 billion billion in additional $2 An additional * SAn territories. provinces and provinces territories. and

A Canada Public Health Agency to address both national and global disease control and emergency Education: response. * Improvements to the Canada Student Loans Pro* Changes to the Canada Health Protection Act. gram. * Health promotion to reduce the incidence of avoid* New incentives for Registered Education Savings able disease.

Plans.

Plans.

Chilren' Isses: Encouragements for adult education and training.

Children's Issues: Encouragements for adult education and training. * Accelerated initiatives to provide quality child care. to speed integration of immigrant Improvements the Earlywokrinourokoce * pilot Understanding * Expansion of the Early of the pilot Understanding Expansion workforce. our into workers Years program - which helps identify children with learning problems - to at least 100 communities.

The Alberta Speech from the Throne(February 17, 2004) * Reinstatement of child protection legislation and a promised a number of changes that will complement those strategy to protect children from Internet abuse. in the Federal speech:

lies with disabled members.

Aboriginals: * Improved governance for First Nations communities (reserves), and establishment of a Centre for First Nations Government. * Renewed efforts on the Aboriginal Human Resources Development Strategy. * Expansion of the Urban Aboriginal Strategy. * Discussions on M6tis issues. * Establishment of a Cabinet Committee on Aboriginal Affairs.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Plan. * * *

*

Increased funding for school boards and class size guidelines.

A mandatory program of daily physical activity for all students.

Improved funding for post-secondary education, expanded degree-granting programs at more institutions, and the Campus Alberta Quality Council to review all degree programs.

Enhanced apprenticeship programs, as well as incentives to encourage immigration of skilled workers.

Page 18

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Families and Children: * A provincial Roundtable on Family Violence and Bullying, as well as funding to assist people trying to escape family violence. * Stronger protection for children from Internet abuses and child prostitution, as well as a more unified approach to occurrences of child abuse.

Policing:

funding formulas for local policing Improved

Persons with Disabilities: * Better co-ordination of efforts to assist persons with disabilities and to promote positive attitudes and awareness.

Seniors: * A plan to prepare for the implications of our ageing population, as well as additional funds for services for seniors. * Processes to review long-term care facilities, Aboriginals: * Economic development, education and health initiatives aimed at Aboriginals. * New and improved programs for diabetes screening and other health Aboriginals. andissues issues otherfacing facing health Aboriginals.

Health Care: * Improved access to primary health care providers and support for community-based health care services. * A Health Quality Council to monitor performance of our health care system.

Infrastructure: * Continued investment in community infrastructure through the Centennial Capital Plan.

KEY SOCIAL ISSUES Social Implications of Demographic Change Edmonton's population continues to age. The demand for services such as health care will continue to increase.

group will remain flat. This decline in the number of youths will begin to have implications for schools and other agencies providing services to this group.

At the other end of the population spectrum, the 75+ age group in Edmonton is expected to increase by about 18% (8,600). The increase will largely occur in the older, central areas of the City and a high proportion of this age group is women living alone. The demand for services such as health care, exercise programs, seniors housing, and aids to daily living will continue to increase.

By 2000, Canada's fertility rate had dropped to an all-time low of 1.49 children for every woman, approaching the rate of 1.4 reported in many European countries. This compares with a rate of 2.1 children per woman in the United States. The fertility rate of women who immigrated to Canada between 1996 to 2001 was 3.1. Interestingly, the longer immigrant women stay in Canada, the closer their fertility rate approaches the Canadian average, particularly if they arrived at a young age and received part of their schooling here. This pattern of decline is not as marked among women who immigrated from Asia and the Middle East.

The decline in fertility among immigrant women is significant, because natural increase (births minus deaths) has been making a steadily smaller contribution to our population growth for Canada in recent years.

Interprovincial migration across Canada rose by 8% in 2001/2002, over the year previous. Among the provinces, Alberta and Ontario had the highest rates of in-migration, at 13 per 1,000 population. Edmonton showed an increase over the in-migration of 2000/2001, from 8.4 to 13 per 1,000 population. Edmonton placed fifth among CMAs, after Toronto (21.7), Calgary (17.7), Oshawa (16.9) and Vancouver (13.4).

Financial incentives are probably strong forces behind this movement. Interprovincial migrants who came to Alberta had a median income of only 82% of the provincial median income. income.

It isestimated that over the forecast period in the Edmonton CMA, the 0-9 group will increase by 2.6% (3,000). The 10-14 age group will fall by 8%(5,100) and the 15-19 age Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 19

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Sources of Population Growth Edmonton vs. Calgary, 1997-2002

ini u Natural Increase Interprovlnclal migration

Ii

mlnternatlonal mgration

Mlntraprovlnclal

migration

40

~residents the country has recorded since 1931.

Significantly, 46% of these new Canadians are from a nonEuropean background. This contrasts with third-generation

2

0

country. This is the highest proportion of foreign-born

63% of whom report their background as British, French or Canadian.

50so |Canadians,

S30

In 2002, close to a quarter of Canadian residents over the age of 15 (23%) reported they were born outside the

-

First-generation Canadians often become involved with or cultural organizations relating to their

mnoo _IClayMAethnic

_

Edmonton

CMA

CalgaryCMA

background. By the third generation in Canada they are much more likely to report themselves as Canadian.

2003 Source: Statt s Canada,

Young people (aged 15 to 29) represented more than half of Edmonton's gain from 1996 to 2001, due to the healthy economic situation here, and the fact that Alberta's

The majority of foreign immigrants to Canada during the period 1996 to 2001 were of working age (25 to 64). Most (69%) of the children who immigrated to Canada went to

unemployment rate has often been as much as two

three major centres -

percentage points below the national average over the period. Elsewhere in Canada, particularly in large metropolitan centres like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, seniors are leaving the cities for smaller cities or rural areas. This was not the case for Edmonton, however, where net increases were seen for all age groups.

Research has shown that while these immigrant children are at an initial disadvantage in terms of academic achievement, they soon catch up to or even surpass children of Canadian-born parents.

Canada isnow second only to Australia interms of percentage of its population that was foreign-born.

Migration from other countries continues to contribute to Edmonton's increasingly ethnically diverse population.

Seventy-one percent of the almost 45,000 international immigrants to the Edmonton CMA during the 1990s were members of a visible minority; 58% of the newcomers came from Asia. The Edmonton CMA now has the fifth highest proportion (15%) of visible minorities among Canadian census metropolitan areas. The following lists the top sources of foreign immigration to Edmonton during the 1990s.

Country of Origin Philippines

% of Total 12.4

Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.

In 2001, 17.8% of Edmonton CMA's population consisted of immigrants. The figure for Calgary was 20.9%; the national figure was 18.6%.

Families The number ofmarriages inAlberta declined by 3.5% in 2001.

Paralleling a Canada-wide trend, the number of marriages in Alberta in 2001 declined by 3.5% from 2000 (Canada as a whole showed a 6.8% decline). This reflects a longterm trend - people choosing common-law relationships over marriage, particularly following break-up of a previous marriage.

India People's Republic of China Hong Kong

10.1 10.0 6.1

People are also waiting longer to marry. The average age of brides in 1981 was 26.2 years; by 2001 it had risen to

Vietnam

5.1 4.0 3.8 3.4 2.1

31.9. The average age of marriage for males also increased.

Poland United Kingdom

United States Bosnia and Herzegovina Lebanon All others

2.1 40.9

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

The 2001 Census of Canada has provided some new insights into living arrangements among seniors. The following chart provides statistics for Alberta.

Page 20

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Living Arrangements of Seniors (65+) Alberta, 2001

MM E Alone

uMEl

EWith childrenlothers UWith spouse only

iill

Ilnstitulons

70 60

While knowledge work positions pay higher wages, the comparative level of wages compared to other occupations has not increased significantly over the last thirty years.

-

In 1996, a higher proportion of men (19%) than women (11%) worked in knowledge positions, although the proportion for females is growing faster than for males.

50

40

Immigrant families who have come to Canada in recent

S30

10o

years have not been nearly as successful at accumulating wealth as their counterparts who immigrated prior to 1976.

20

o

LFamilies Males

Females

Aboriginal children are much more likely than nonAboriginal children to be living separate from one or both of their parents. Only about 50% of Aboriginal children living in Canada's CMAs live with both parents, versus almost 83% for non-Aboriginals. Just under 5% of Aboriginal children in large urban areas do not live with even one of their parents, staying instead with a relative or non-relative.

Employment and Incomes

who arrived before 1976 have a greater median wealth than comparable Canadian-born families; more recent arrivals have a lower median wealth than Canadianborn families. This holds true for families with children, as well as lone-parent families and unattached individuals.

Between 1980 and 2000, earnings of immigrant males working full-time, full-year dropped by 7%, in spite of significant increases in their educational levels. Earnings for Canadian males in the same situation rose by 7%.

Young Canadian-born men aged 25-29 also suffered a drop in earnings of 10%. Over the same period, earnings of Canadian-born women rose by 19%, as compared to only 13% for immigrant women, even though the educational

Employment and income conditions in Alberta have shown good improvement over the last few years, in con-

attainments of the immigrant women showed greater improvement. These gaps are more pronounced among prime

trast to much of the rest of Canada.

working age workers and may be linked to their foreign work experience.

Among the provinces, Alberta has shown the steadiest employment growth over the longest period. For ten consecutive years employment has grown by more than 2%.

The number of food bank users in Edmonton has been declining for the last few years, although demand increased again in 2002 and 2003'.

Median household incomes are above the Canadian level ($60,025 in 2001). Edmonton recorded a median household income of $67,325, and Calgary was somewhat higher at $70,110. The two cities ranked fourth and third

Average Monthly Food Edmonton Bank Useton

respectively among Canadian CMAs, after Toronto and Ottawa-Gatineau.

3s 30 25

There has been considerable discussion in recent years about the shift to "knowledge work", but in fact, this trend has been growing since the early 70s. In 1971, about 14% of Canadian workers were doing high-knowledge work; by 2001 the proportionhad grown to 25%. This reflects a continued increase in the importance of skills, knowledge

and human capital in a wide range of industries.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

a

1peons

.pes

-

20 15

-

E C 1 5M

z 0

, 0

1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

So

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 2003 Edmonton Gleaners Assocation

Based on the first II months of2003.

Page 21

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Household Spending At $67,730, the average Alberta household spends more than other Canadian households.

Albertans hold the Canadian record for household spending - the average household spent $67,730 in 2002, as compared to the national average of $60,090.

Canada-wide, expenditures on housing and food remained largely unchanged, but there were increases in the areas of transportation (a 14% increase in spending on new vehicles, I % on fuel and operating costs, 16% on vehicle insurance) and communications (mostly cellular communications, Internet and satellite TV services). In 2002, over 64% of Canadian homes reported owning a

income of $40,000 or greater. Retirement plans were also greatly influenced by whether or not the individual had a private pension plan. Recent immigrants (arriving since 1980) were much more likely (47%) to have no fixed retirement plans and were also more concerned (45%) about the adequacy of their financial preparations for retirement.

Among recent retirees, 53% said they were about as well off as before retirement, 13% said their situation had improved, and 34% said they were worse off financially than before retirement.

Percentage of Population Over 65 Edmonton CMA, 2001

computer. Only 55% of households had one in 2000.

I

Edmnonn

Albertans reported the highest expenditures on health care ($1,990, versus the national average of $1,590).

Leduc Leduc County FortSask.tchewan

Canadian households in the lowest 20% in terms of household income had to allocate over 51% of their expenditures towards food, shelter and clothing, whereas those in the top 20% put only 28% of household income into the necessities of life.

ParklandCounty St,.

A.ort

/0

Srathcona County Sturgeon County

SrGo counti Spruce Grove .

.

0_ 0

Source: Stafistics Canada, 2003

20

2

4

8 6 Percent

10

12

14

The Ageing Population We know our population is ageing, although Alberta has

While there has been a lot of discussion about labour shortages brought on by waves of Baby Boomer retirebeginning to appear than many Canadians ments, it isments, beginning it is to appear than many Canadians near retirement age are not yet ready to do so.

the youngest population of all the provinces - 10.4% of Albertans are over 65; the average for Canada is 13%.

Aletnarovr6;hevrgefrCadis1% Within the CMA, Edmonton has the oldest population, as shown by the previous chart.

Since the late 1970s the average retirement age has been decreasing from about 65 to 61.

Health

We have heard a lot in recent years about the large numbers of Baby Boomers who will be retiring imminently, and the problems this will create in the labour market. Recent research from the Statistics Canada General Social Survey, however, reveals that as many as one-third of Canadians in their late 40s and 50s do not feel financially prepared for retirement. Almost one-third (31%) of non-retired Canadians aged 45 to 59 said they did not know when they would retire, or did not intend to retire. Canadians with incomes below $20,000 were much more likely to state that they had no plans to retire than persons with an

Mental health problems accountfor a significantand growingproportion of disabilities.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

As a follow-up to the 2001 Census, Statistics Canada conducted a survey of Canadians who had indicated on the census that they had some form of disability. For 2 Canada as a whole, 12.4% of the population reported having activity limitations. Alberta was very close to the national average, at 12.5%; other provinces ranged from 8.4% to 17.1%.

Page 22

*

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Disability Rates by Age •Canada, 2001 Canada,

2001

Education

Euai

Alberta schools will get a much-needed boost from the

additionalfunding promised in the Alberta Speech

oo100

from the Throne.

80

aThe

number of full-time teachers in Alberta dropped 1.5% from 1996 to 2001, although student enrolment increased

60

by 10.3%. The student:teacher ratio dropped by 0.6% because of a large increase in the number of part-time

40 20

teachers.

0

so

ot 14

0ocoraI blicsCan, d. 2002

15to64

65to74

75 and over

As shown in the chart above, the disability rate increases significantly with age, and rises sharply for the elderly (over 75). This adds further impetus to the concerns discussed earlier about rising health costs associated with our aging population. Females are more likely to report being disabled (13.3%) than are males (11.5%), except in the under 15 age group. Aboriginal persons are also 1.5 times more likely to reportwith chronic health conditions and to report recent problems depression. toproblems report recent with depression.

Sas

While younger Aboriginals living off-reserve are as likely to report they are in good or excellent health as all Canadians of the same age (69% compared to 71%), the gap is greater for older Aboriginals. 41% of Aboriginal women aged 55-64 reported being in only fair or poor health on the 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey. The

comparable figure for all Canadian women in the same age group is only 19%.

Chronic complaints such as arthritis and rheumatism are almost twice common almostas as twice common among among non-reserve non-reserve adult

adult Aboriginals as in the general population. High blood

pressure, asthma and diabetes are also more common among non-reserve Aboriginals. The proportion of adult non-reserve Ariginas

rportin od t non-reserve North American Indians reporting diabetes also rose from 5.3% in 1991 to 8.3% in 2001. The problem is even greater among older Aboriginal women, where as many as one in four report problems with diabetes (as compared to one in ten for all Canadian women of similar age). age).

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Educational attainment levels among young Aboriginals

have improved, although there are still a number of significant obstacles preventing many from continuing in school.

Social Services Increased government transfers and lower taxes have Increased government transfers and lower taxes have meant higher after-tax incomes for many families.

After-tax After-tax incomes incomes for for most most Canadian Canadian family family types types increased over the twenty years beginning in 1981, mainly a result of increased government transfers and lower taxes.

Families with children children found themselves with almost Families almost $10,000 more. Elderly individuals and families had about $3,000 more, while lone-parent families had almost $5,000 more after taxes. The latter improvement meant that the port f l ear ent el i e of lone-parent families below the low income proportion cut-off dropped to a record low of 28.6%.

Government transfers (including E.I., Old Age Security/ Income Supplements, C.P.P., social assistance, etc.) contributed of the the total total community community income income of of contributed 10.8% 10.8% of Edmonton in 1998. This compares to a high of 15.3% in E

Sudbury and a low of 6.4% in Halton, Ontario. The average for Canada is 12.8%. Edmonton is more or less in the middle of the range for the 18 cities reporting.

Although child welfare caseloads in the Edmonton area are are not for the the provprovthey are not rising rising as as fast fast as as for are increasing, increasing, they ince as a whole.

Page 23

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 Crime Average Monthly Child Welfare Caseloads

Ma'Mowe Capital Region and Alberta

m im u iii EMaMowe Capital Region 0 Alberta

6 r

There were 94,379 reported criminal code offences in 2003, up 6% from 2002. The overall increase in crime was driven by an 11% increase in property crime which reached a 5year high of 51,677 offences in 2003.

* a P

,

Property Crime

SI 20 1999 0 Source:M'Mowe CapitalRegion Children2 ervices Authority

Total criminalcode offences in Edmonton increased 6% in 2003.

2001

Housing and Homelessness The shortageof affordablehousingin Edmonton remains at an acute level.

An analysis done in February 2003 identified a number of factors combining to worsen the already poor rental and housing low-income Edmonton. in Edmonton. situation in housing situation low-income The construction of rental housing has been slow. As well, the existing stock has been eroded through demolition or the conversion to condominiums .6,500 units were lost between 1997 and 2000. A growing population, particularly the influx of out-of-province workers has boosted demands and rental rates have risen. Because landlords have a greater choice in tenants, many low-

income and special needs households have been unable to find suitable or affordable housing. The waiting lists for social housing have increased from about 300 to 4,300 households over the past five years.

The main contributors to the 11% increase in property crime include: include: crime

Theft, which increased 12% (2,943) to a total of 26,960 offences. Theft From Auto accounted for more than half (13,551) of all thefts in 2003.

Motor Vehicle Theft, which continued a 5-year trend and increased 21% (1,472) to a total of 8,579 offences.

Break and Enter offences, which increased 6% (507) 6% (507) increasedaccounted whichbreak-ins offences, andofEnter Break Residential 8,683. to a total to a total of 8,683. Residential break-ins accounted for the largest proportion (42%) of Break and Enter offences.

Rate of Property Crime and Violent Crime Edmonton

I

EE .IP*per m

c

r

ime R

°t a

v

ioent c rim °R ateb

9,000 8,9000 ,90

7,000

________________________

. 6,000

:00

-

2,0o00

1,000 9

The total number of homeless persons counted in October 2002 (1,915) was up 65% from the previous count in

1999

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

sou rce: EdmontonPoliceService,2004

September 2000; almost two-thirds of those counted were absolute homeless, meaning that they had no permanent place to reside. The number of homeless children under 15 more than doubled between 1999 (112) and 2002 (267).

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 24

*Edmonton

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

Violent Crime

Recreation and Leisure

Violent crime decreased by 1%(97) to 7,192 offences in 2003. The reduction in violent crime is due to decreases in Non Sexual Assault (-211, 4%), Sexual Assault (-92, 16%), Other Sexual Offences (-58, 49%), Homicide (-7, 29%), and Attempted Murder (-5, 63%). Robbery increased by 21% (276) in 2003. Although there was an overall decrease in violent crime in 2003, itis still up 2% (148) from a five-year low of 7,044 in 1999.

Edmontonians are aware of the value of a physically active lifestyle, and they see our city as being a supportive environmentfor active recreation. Unfortunately, a significantproportion of Edmontonians is not as active as they should be, and many have no intention ofchanging their activity patterns.

Traffic Collisions

A baseline recreational activity survey done in Edmonton in November of 2003 forActive Edmonton found that most Edmontonians are aware of the value of being physically active. They realize that exercise is important to maintaining good health, and they often are aware of what they should be doing to obtain those health benefits. Unfortunately, as many as 36% of the population have no intention ofchanging their activity patterns soon; 52% said they planned some increase in their physical activity within the next six months.

Traffic collisions were down 7% (-2,360) to 29,971 in

Almost 60% of Edmontonians report they take part in no

2003. The decrease was driven by an 18% (-1,508) drop

regular vigorous physical activity and 34% say they do

in non-fatal injury collisions and a 4% (-862) drop in property damage collisions. Fatal collisions increased from 20 in 2002 to 30 in 2003.

While the number of family disputes increased 3% (184)

not even get moderately vigorous activity on a regular basis. A significant proportion of our population does not get enough exercise to maintain good health. Our society could well be facing continued intensification in problems such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Coupled with the ageing of our population, the costs in terms of health care, lost productivity and strain on families could become

to a total of 6,052 in 2003, the incidence of child abuse

overwhelming.

Traffic Crime Traffic crime decreased by 3% (-147) to a five-year low of 4,539 offences in 2003. The reduction in traffic crime is due to a 7% (-116) decrease in Impaired Driving offences and a 6% (-73) decrease in offences ofDriving With a Blood Alcohol Exceeding 80 Milligrams.

Family Disputes and Child Abuse Family and Child Disputes Abuse

decreased 28% from 366 occurrences in 2002 to 264 occurrences in 2003.

Gaming Spending on gambling across Canada rose by over

Family Disputes and Child Abuse

Edmonton llllll

/lllm *Child

Abuse

400% during the ten-year period 1992-2002.

Slightly over 5% of Canadians are problem gamblers or are at risk of becoming problem gamblers. Risks are higher for men, Aboriginals and those with less education. The

FamilyDisputes,

7,000

o0o

risks also increase if people gamble frequently, or if they

5oo,000

tend to play VLTs.

0

4,000 o 3,000

Spending on games of chance rose by 418% between 1992

E2,000

S1.000 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

and 2002, and increased by almost 18% over 2001, to an average of $310 per Canadian household.

Source: Edmonton Police Service, 2004

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 25

SEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry Employment by Industry - Edmonton C.M.A. (thousand) Industry

1990

Total

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

424

428

429

422

429

441

441

466

475

483

489

505

522

537

80

81

83

81

84

94

91

96

100

110

101

109

120

121

Agriculture

4

3

3

4

3

10

6

8

8

7

5

2

3

5

Forestry, Fishing, Mning, Oil & Gas

7

8

8

6

8

11

12

14

15

10

10

12

11

14

Utilities

5

4

6

6

5

4

5

3

3

4

5

4

5

5

Construction

29

30

29

27

26

28

31

27

31

35

35

42

46

47

Manufacturing

35

35

38

37

41

41

37

44

44

55

47

50

55

50

344

348

346

341

345

347

350

370

375

373

388

396

402

416

Trade

77

78

74

74

76

76

74

77

76

77

85

83

82

88

Transportation and Warehousing

23

23

22

21

22

23

26

27

25

24

30

31

27

29

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing

28

29

30

28

27

27

23

26

29

28

29

31

31

27

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

21

19

20

22

26

21

26

29

30

33

32

35

37

36

13

11

13

13

12

15

15

17

17

15

16

14

19

24

Educational Services

33

35

37

36

31

34

31

33

30

37

34

40

39

39

Health Care and Social Assistance

43

49

45

43

50

46

51

48

54

54

50

52

56

54

Information, Culture and Recreation

20

18

19

20

23

24

22

21

28

22

20

20

21

21

A~commodation and Food Services

28

27

28

28

26

28

29

32

31

30

36

37

37

37

Other Services

21

22

23

25

22

26

25

31

28

26

29

26

24

27

Public Administration

37

38

37

32

33

27

28

30

27

27

26

28

29

34

Goods-Producing Sector

Services-Producing Sector

Management of Companies & Administrative & Other Support Services

Prepared bythe City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, January 2004 Source: Statistics Canada

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

000000000000

Page 26

0000IPO**00000000000000000000*00

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009

APPEMIX II- Edionon Goss [omestic Product by Industry

Real Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices by Inlustlry, Edmonton C.IVLA Mllions of Industry Agriculture Forestry, Fishing, Mning, (1 &Gas Manufacturing Corsruction Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Trade Finance, Ins rance, Feal Estate and Leasing Business Service Public Adrrinistration Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Akorrodation and Food Services Other Sevices 3 GDP at Basic Prices Indirect Taxes Less Subsides GDP at Mariat Prices EdTirnton GrfowtuMh Rate (%) Alberta Growth Rate (%)

iChained (1997) Dollars ($Mllicns)

)

1990

1991

192

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

86 1,496 2,491 1,926 1,217 794 2,555

78 1,776 2,593 1,808 1,345 736 2,468

61 1,795 2,688 1,573 1,449 951 2,439

103 1,537 2,818 1,693 1,469 952 2,633

91 2,114 3,391 1,633 1,491 928 2,926

287 2,762 3,343 1,669 1,548 801 2,754

172 2,839 3,177 1,886 1,628 992 2,795

226 3,197 4,000 1,971 1,855 894 3,330

242 3,524 3,788 2,352 1,809 899 3,250

249 2,689 4,370 2,374 1,692 949 3,129

189 2,646

4,542 1,305 2,010 1,274 1,621 795 939

4,560 1,163 1,995 1,318 1,861 695 909

4,879 1,153 1,973 1,486 1,734 685 951

4,826 1,332 1,888 1,381 1,627 732 1,02D

5,160 1,508 1,985 1,239 1,834 672 .970

5,111 1,507 1,744 1,353 1,646 757 1,050

4,822 1,609 1,744 1,257 1,688 764 994

5,658 1,945 1,827 1,365 1,494 807 1,146

6,721 2,057 1,736 1,327 1,637 800 1,088

23,052

23,306

23,817

24,009

25,942

26,334

26,367

29,716

2,845

2,639

2,613

3,220

3,210

3,321

3,019

25,897

25,945

26,430

27,229

29,152

29,654

(0.1) 0.7

0.2 0.7

1.9 1.3

3.0 7.4

7.1 6.2

1.7 4.1

2000

2001

202

2,290 2,051 1,215 3,716

94 2,431 3,968 2,830 2,(23 925 3,937

90 2,437 4,186 3,124 1,835 810 4,089

6,136 2,071 1,926 1,484 1,661 820 1,044

6826 2,252 1,930 1,497 1,555 972 1,117

7,165 2,74 2,148 1,729 1,675 1,047 1,017

7,546 2,660 2,126 1,686 1,727 1,027 1,013

31,230

30,594

32,073

33,263

34,355

3,125

3,683

3,491

3,579

3,078

3,239

29,387

32,841

34,913

34,085

35,651

36,341

37,595

(0.9) 1.3

11.8 7.2

3 3.4

4.6 6.9

1.9 1.2

3.5 3.2

(2.4) 0.7

3,816

Prepared bythe Ctyof Edmodnton Planning and De eopniert Departnt, January204 Source: Statistics Canada and Aberta Rnance Nctes (1) Prelinrrinary Esirmates - Subject to Revision Upxated gruoth rates for Edmnoton and Aberta vere dtained from Alberta RFnar 2002 Provincial Ecormic Accoints, Which were released after the corrpletion of the Edtrnton Socio-Ecnorric Cutlook (Octdober 203).

(2) his includes: Professional, Scientific and Techd-nical ServinAces & bnagerrmet of Corrpanies and Adninistrative and Other Stpport Senrvices (3) This includes- Oher Services & Inforntetion, Culture and PRecreation

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

Page 27

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 -

Appendix III

I

Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

-

ci-

CyPrimary

..

.

-

.... Stugeon

"ewae 38Redwate

tu. on Co nty

Highway

riSecondary Highway Railwayon

C Town

Acord Bruderhe"

Mornvll *

Village

RalwayALEXANDER County Boundary

Villae

N

n

L__-

Lgal

..

134

Gi bons

A5

2

Urban Service Area Boundary

tchewa

"~,Smo

"" .

.

SPlain

W

-2

.

.

b.-

_

WARANILIr

stony

*"

S rathcon I

h

1 .a

G'ove Gk

.................................................

I

Edoton

,Co

yCounty

I.R. 133A

.

-

St. Albert

v

TO

373

5_

onmParkland

Edmon

L

Par

ntermational .

'' Warur

ama

Cal

60

Airport

R.15

ake

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, March 2004

a-epta 0

25

r

b,Leduc

County

'1 2m

(E#dmonton Prep e by:D ioP

e

Leduc

kilonetres

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2004 - 2009 APPENDIX IV

Jong Huang (Chairperson) Chief Economist Planning and Development Department

K.L. Siu Director of Infrastructure Planning Asset Management & Public Works Department

Paul Tsounis Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

Stan Dilworth City Assessor Planning and Development Department

Dana Oikawa Forecast Manager EPCOR Power Generation

Linda Chan Manager, Capital-Revenues and Rates EPCOR Water Services

Terry Dew Director of Knowledge Management

Rod Keith Strategic Planning Officer

Economic Development Edmonton

Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee Director, Evaluation & Monitoring Transportation and Streets Department

Staff Sgt. Dean Albrecht Planning & Evaluation Services Section Edmonton Police Services

Robert Higgins Planner II Planning & Development Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Emergency Response Department

Nila Chowdhury Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Christina Ionescu Economist Corporate Services Department

For more economic information, please contact: Jong Huang (780) 496-6068 Paul Tsounis

(780) 496-6070

For more social information, please contact: Rod Keith (780) 496-4782

Prepared by. City Forecast Committee, March 2004

jong.huang@edmonton.ca paul.tsounis@edmonton.ca

rod.keith@edmonton.ca

Page 29