Edmonton (Alta.) - 1987-2000 - Socio-economic forecasts_1997-2002, City of Edmonton (1997-10)

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Prepared by the City Forecast Committee

October 1997

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECAST 1997-2002 CITY OF EDMONTON Prepared by

City Forecast Committee October 1997

Copyright © 1997 by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department c/o 3rd Floor, City Hall 1 Sir Winston Churchill Square Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7

The City of Edmonton provides this information in good faith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liability from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

AND O PLANNING - d~ontonDEVELOPMENT

0 SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton,

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Jong Huang (Chairman) Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

Brian Boles Manager of Planning & Evaluation Community Services Department

Dana Oikawa Senior Economic Advisor Edmonton Power

Steve Friedenthal Social Planner Community Services Department

Rick Hersack Director of Research Economic Development Edmonton

Rod Keith Parks Planner Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee Supervisor of Forecasting Transportation and Streets Department

Staff Sgt. John Fairweather Planning & Evaluation Services Section Edmonton Police Service

Audra Jones Senior Transportation Engineer Transportation and Streets Department

Susan Ancel Director of Planning & Distribution Aqualta

Nila Chowdhury Senior Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Emergency Response Department

Patrick Walters Economist Planning and Development Department

Christina Ionescu Cost and Value Analyst Corporate Services Department

0 For more information contact: Jong Huang

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or Patrick Walters

fax.: (403) 496-6028 phone.: (403) 496-6068; email:jhuang@gov.edmonton.ab.ca fax: (403) 496-6028 phone: (403) 496-6070; email.: pwalters@gov.edmonton.ab.ca

by City ForecastCommittee, October 1997 Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, October 1997

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton TABLE OF CONTENTS

S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Economic Growth Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Oil and Gas

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Labour Market

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Construction Sector Population Change Inflation Social Forecast

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST Business Sector Government and the Public Sector Families and Individuals

Construction Real Estate Market ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS

PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST

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CANADA

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ALBERTA

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EDMONTON

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Demographic Changes Employment and Unemployment Youth Unemployment

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Education

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INTRODUCTION

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Regionalization and Restructuring The Volunteer and Not-for-Profit Sector Poverty

PART 1: ECONOMIC FORECAST

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Health Services

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Social Services and Violence Recreation and Leisure Festivals and Major Events

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SUCrime UNITED STATES CANADA

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ALBERTA

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EDMONTON EDMONTON Population Output Labour Market Inflation

SOCIAL FORECAST RISKS

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0 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

APPENDIXES

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1. Northern Alberta Major Projects 29 33 Map II. Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

E Z Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton another referendum is held in Quebec. The Quebec referendum, along with the rising

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

short-term interest rates in the United States,

Economic Growth m The growth in Canada is expected to rise from 1.5% in 1996 to 3.5% in 1997. Higher interest rates, continued fiscal restraint from Federal and Provincial Governments, and political instability associated with a Quebec provincial election and referendum can be expected to hold growth to 3.0% in 1998 and 2.0% in 1999. Economic growth is expected to rebound to 3.0% annually from 2000 to 2002. g The growth in Alberta is forecast to surge to 4.3% in 1997, in response to low interest rates, more stable provincial government expenditures, firming energy prices, increased exports, growing labour incomes, and increased investment in the energy and resource sectors. The provincial economy will grow at 4.0% in 1998, as construction begins on several major resource projects. By 1999, the growth rate will drop to 3.5%, as

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Oil and Gas

oil prices and lower rates effect higher gproduceinterest a negative on aggregate

Oil prices are expected to decline to around US$20.50 per barrel in 1997 from US$22.01 in 1996 because of weaker world demand and increased world production. Thereafter, a gradual recovery in world oil prices is expected to be interrupted by a much anticipated mild winter heating season in the coming year and the possible development of a major new oil field in the former Soviet Union. Consequently, the current forecast calls for prices to drop slightly in 1998, firm somewhat in 1999, before softening again in 2000 with the assumed introduction of oil. substantial new volumes of non-OPEC

produce a negative effect on aggregate demand.

m The total value of all goods and services produced in the Edmonton economy is expected to grow by 4.3% in 1997 and 4.0% in 1998, up from 2.6% in 1996, as the region benefits from strong investment activity in northern Alberta.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates *

The prime rate remained at 4.75% for the first

three quarters of 1997 and it is anticipated that As it will rise in the final quarter of the year. a result, it is expected to average 4.9% for 1997 and 5.3% for 1998 due to the political uncertainty over the outcome of the provincial election in Quebec. The political uncertainty, that began in 1998, will continue in 1999 as

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

will cause the prime rate to edge up to 6.5% in 1999. By 2000, the forecast assumes that political stability will be restored in Canada.

As a result, the prime rate will decline to 5.5% and then to 5.0% from 2001 to 2002 because the domestic and foreign deficits are erased, providing the Bank of Canada with the ability to lower interest rates.

In 1997, the value of the Canadian dollar is expected to remain at its 1996 level of US$0.73 and increase to US$0.74 in 1998, as the Canadian economy continues to benefit from improvement in its domestic and foreign deficits. However, the political uncertainty over Quebec's future in 1999 will cause the exchange rate to fall to US$0.72. With political stability restored in 2000, the currency is expected to resume its upward trend and average US$0.74 in the year and US$0.75 during 2001 and 2002.

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The continued growth in the Canadian market and the U.S. demand for natural gas is expected to keep gas prices high at around $1.75 per GJ in 1997. Starting in 1998, the expansion of pipeline capacity into Eastern

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton Canada and Midwest U.S. markets should moderate domestic competition in Alberta, resulting in gas prices rising steadily to around $2.15 by 2002.

Labour Market S

The Edmonton labour market is expected to improve significantly in response to strong investment in northern Alberta. Total employment in the region will increase at a rate of 10,500 per year from 454,000 in 1996 to 517,000 in 2002. The unemployment rate to 8.5% in 1996 drop fromintta will continue to5.2%.1 2002.o 5.2% in 2002.

S The goods-producing industries will experience above-average employment growth whereas the government-supported service sector will have below-average growth over the forecast period.

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Construction Sector S Several recently announced investment projects will have a significant impact on the construction sector in Alberta and the Edmonton region. This, together with low interest rates and increased employment will substantially boost housing construction activity in the Edmonton region. Housing starts are expected to range between 4,700 and 5,000 units per year in the region and 2,800 to 3,000 units in the City over the forecast Both apartment and office space vacancy rates will decline gradually over the forecast period as economic activity and employment opportunity continue to improve, resulting in higher positive net migration.

Inflation will range between 2.5% to 3% over the forecast period as the economy continues to experience excess capacity.

Social Forecast M

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for Edmonton C.M.A. boundaries) is expected to rise from -5,600 persons in 1995 to the range of 6,000 to 7,500 persons per year over the forecast period. The City will receive About two-thirds of the region's net migration.

Edmonton's population is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.3% per year from an estimate of 616,300 in 1996 to 665,600 in 2002. The population in the Edmonton C.M.A. will rise from 862,400 in 1996 to 936,100 in 2002.

The population will continue to age. The population group under 45 years will account for 66.1% of total population in dw i 2002, 202 down from 70% in 1996. The population in the 65+ age group is projected to rise to 11.9% in 2002 from 11.1% in 1996.

Inflation [

A modest reinvestment in social programs by the Federal and Provincial governments will occur as the government budget deficits are eliminated, cumulative debt is reduced, and budget surpluses become a reality. After a decrease of $407 million between 1995/96 and 1997/98 in health, social services and education funds from the Canada Health and

Alberta will receive an Social Transfer, additional $60 million in 1998/99 estimated and another $62 million in 1999/2000 from this funding mechanism. this funding mechanism. s

Population Change S The population growth will be modest. Net migration for the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.) (See Appendix II

The growth of the 75+ age group (30%) over the forecast period will see increased demand for health services and supportive housing; social isolation may become an issue. This will occur at the same time as services for seniors are being reduced.

Forecast City19972 October Prepared Committee, by

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 19972

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Q Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton and reduced funding levels could lead to the loss of some services. Volunteer recruitment, training, and ongoing support will become issues for a growing number of agencies.

S The improved economy, increasing number of

jobs, increased Child Tax Benefit, and Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit will result in a decrease in the depth of poverty and possibly the extent of poverty for some of the working poor with children. These developments may also have some positive impacts on stresses on families, health status, and reduce pressures on some social services.

However, poverty will remain a significant issue for a large segment of Edmontonians.

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Building upon the success of Edmonton's major festivals, increasing numbers of smaller, ethno-cultural festivals can be expected.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST Business Sector m

The number of high school graduates is increasing and a slightly greater proportion than usual may be enrolling in post-secondary

Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: * *

low inflation, increased spin-off activity from a number

education programs as a result of newly

of recently announced energy and

announced Federal Government initiatives, More of these students may seek technical training that is closely tied to employment opportunities.

resource-related projects,

ma The reductions in social and health services, resulting from government restructuring and decreased funding, will continue to shift more of the burden of care for seniors and other vulnerable groups to the community and to family members. m The decrease in crime rates, the trend of the 1990s, has slowed. However, people's perceptions of high crime continue to lag behind the reality of major reductions in crime rates. m

Evidenced by a decline in recreation participation rates, Edmontonians are expressing that they have less discretionary time for recreation and leisure pursuits.

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The volunteer sector has a major impact on the Edmonton economy. Trends toward larger organizations may see mergers in some areas

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The priority action by the Federal Government and the Provinces to address youth unemployment may help narrow the increasingly widening gap between the unemployment rate among youth and the rate for the community as a whole.

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by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997 Prepared Preparedby." City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

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a strong recovery in housing construction, improved employment and income growth,

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modest population growth, supported by a major influx of military personnel, and the improvement in employment outlook, and

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increased spending by low-income families with children aided by Federal and Provincial benefit programs.

However, during the same period, Edmonton businesses are likely to face: * higher interest rates over the next few years, and *

consumers may decide to rebuild their depleted savings rather than continue to spend.

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. Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton some moderation in the depth of poverty

Government and the Public Sector

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m Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: * the improved economic outlook for the province and the increase in employment opportunities, * low inflation, and

However,Edmontonians must also deal with: However Edmontonians must also deal with: * providing more care for aged relatives,

* stabilized oil prices and gradually improved gas prices,

for the working poor with children.

* * *

potential for more space shortages in high schools, and technical schools (NAIT) a health care system weakened by deep funding cuts, and greater stress and fewer supports for families.

S However, over the same period, the public sector must deal with: * continued fiscal restraint at the Provincial and Federal Government levels, * funding for education that grows at less than the rate of inflation, * a health care system weakened by cuts and consolidations, * municipal revenue shortfalls, *

modest increase in population, with an increasing proportion of seniors,

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families that are placed under greater stress, due to high youth unemployment and cutbacks in services to seniors,

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rising child welfare case loads, higher interest rates, and

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an ageing municipal infrastructure that is

becoming increasingly expensive to maintain.

Families and Individuals

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S Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * greater employment opportunities, * continued relatively low interest rates for purchases of homes or other major items, and

Prepared by. City Forecast Committee, October 1997

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton tighter monetary stance by the U.S. Federal

INTRODUCTION

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mi This report provides a forecast of major economic and social indicators for the years 1997 to 2002. The forecast could be used as a reference for the preparation of the 1998-2002 Capital Priorities Plan and the 1998 Operating Budget. Civic departments could use this document for preparing departmental business plans or strategic plans. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses could the forecast for planning purposes. ma The City Forecast Committee undertakes monitoring and forecasting activities throughout the year. The forecast report is prepared semi-annually, one in the spring and the other in the fall.

PART 1: ECONOMIC FORECAST

UNITED STATES *

The U.S. economy will grow at 3.5% in 1997, slow to 2.5% in 1998 and reboundto 3.0% annually [from 1999 to the end of the forecast

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moreyears SAfter of expansion, the than six After more than six years of expansion, the U.S. economy continues to show considerable as it grew by 4.0% in the first quarter 3.5% in the second quarter of 1997.

Despite the unemployment rate hovering 5.0%, inflation remains modest. around 0 However, as the U.S. economy presses against its capacity by exhibiting strong growth, inflationary pressures are likely to be ignited.

The forecast assumes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will move to raise short-term interest rates towards the end of 1997. As a result, the economy will slow in 1998 in response to a by.: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

Reserve.

Reserve. m

The forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will grow at 3.5% in 1997 and slow to 2.5% in 1998. It is expected to rebound to 3.0% annually from 1999 to the end of the forecast period as short-term interest rates fall.

CANADA The Canadian economy is expected to grow at 3.5% in 1997, 3.0% in 1998, 2.0% in 1999 and 3.0% annuallyfor the rest of the forecast.

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The Canadian economy grew by 3.4% in the first quarter and 3.7% in second quarter of 1997. During this period, the labour market experienced healthy job gains. Despite the economy's strong employment gains, the

unemployment rate remains around 9.0%, as former discouraged workers encouraged by the hope of finding jobs, returns back to the work force., The combination of strong employment gains and relatively low interest rates have boosted consumer and business confidence. Consequently, consumer and business spending on interest sensitive items such as cars, housing, plant, and equipment was very strong. The Canadian economic growth is expected to average 3.5% in 1997.

The forecast assumes that there will be a provincial election in Quebec in 1998. This will result in short term political instability in Canada and cause international money markets to place a higher premium on investing here. Higher short term interest and rates demand and aggregate demand reduce aggregate should reduce rates should result in economic growth falling to 3.0% in 1998. Assuming that a Parti Quebecois government is elected in Quebec, the instability will persist into 1999 as another referendum is held to determine that province's fate in Canada. As a result,

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of 1997. However, the Bank of Canada's concern over the economy's rapid expansion has prompted it to raise the bank rate by 25 percentage points, in early October 1997, as a pre-emptive strike against the outbreak of future inflation. The chartered banks have responded by increasing the prime rate by 50 percentage points to 5.25%. As a result, the lending rate is expected to average 4.9% in 1997. The prime rate is expected to increase slightly to 5.3% in 1998 as the Bank of Canada tightens the money supply in response to rising short-term interest rates in the United States and political instability in Canada. The continuation of political uncertainty over Quebec's future in Canada will cause the Bank of Canada to further raise short-term interest rates to defend the dollar in 1999. The prime lending rate will therefore average 6.5% in 1999. With the return of political stability, the prime rate is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2000 and then to 5.0% from 2001 to the end of the forecast period.

The short-term rates will be kept low towards the end of the forecast as the domestic and0 foreign deficits are erased and the demand for bonds to finance government operations is lessened. The Bank of Canada will thus be able to set a monetary policy independent of p the United States. thUitd--aes

economic growth will slow further to 2.0% in 1999.

Economic Growth

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Assuming Quebec does not separate, with the return of political stability in 2000, investor confidence in the Canadian economy is restored and the run on the Canadian dollar is ceased. With interest rates at relatively low levels again, businesses and consumers can be expected to restructure their debts at reduced rates. This should reduce business costs and increase personal disposable incomes. As a result, sales of interest sensitive items such as cars and homes would benefit. In addition, aggregate domestic demand will be boosted by increased government spending, as governments that have controlled their finances, would re-invest in the economy.

Thus, Canadian economic growth is expected to rebound to average 3.0% annually for the rest of the forecast period. The growth profile for the Canadian economy will resemble that

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

Prime Lending Rate

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of the U.S. since the economy will continue to

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be dependent on exports to the United States.

Canada's remarkable performances at lowering inflation, and cutting its foreign and domestic deficits have combined to make Canada an attractive place to invest. As a result, the Canadian dollar appreciated during 1996 and provided the Bank of Canada with the ability to ease monetary conditions. Thus, the prime rate was lowered to 6.1% in 1996 from 8.7% in 1995. The prime lending rate remained at 4.75% for the first three quarters

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Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

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The Canadian dollar averaged US$0.733 in 1996, up slightly from US$0.729 in 1995.

The exchange rate appreciated sharply during the period September 1996 to November

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton stabilizing provincial government expenditures, firming energy prices, affordable house prices, increased exports, and strong investment in the energy and resources sectors. The goods-producing sectors and the private service-producing sectors will experience above average growth while the government supported service sector will grow below the provincial average. The forecast assumes that the worst of the provincial cuts are over. As a result, government restraint will not retard economic growth.

1996, rising from US$0.73 to US$0.75 as foreign investors were impressed by Canada's strong economic fundamentals. The sharp increase in the exchange rate provided the 0 Bank of Canada with the ability to further cut short-term rates. The forecast calls for the dollar to average US$0.73 in 1997 and US$0.74 in 1998 as the economy continues to benefit from improvement in its domestic and foreign deficits. However, the political uncertainty in 1999 over Quebec's future in Canada will cause the exchange rate to fall to US$0.72. With political stability restored in 2000, the currency gains strength and in 2000 and US$0.75 in *2001-2002.5 averages US$0.74

Economic Growth Alberta & Edmonton IIAlberta

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ALBERTA

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The Alberta economy will grow at 4.3% in 1997, in 1998, 3.5% annually from 1999 to 2001 and 3.2% in 2002.

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as construction begins on several major

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Economic growth will average 4.0% in 1998

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The provincial economy grew at 2.5% in 1996, up from 2.3% in 1995. Economic growth, in Alberta, is expected to increase to 4.3% in 1997. This represents an upward revision of the City's April 1997 forecast. The economic expansion is expected to be driven by improved consumer and business confidence in response to increased labour incomes, relatively low interest rates, October 1997 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, Prepared by." City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

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resource projects and consumer spending strengthens in response to improved job prospects and growing labour incomes. By 1999, the growth rate will drop to 3.5% as higher interest rates produce a negative effect on aggregate demand. By 2000, some projects are completed or nearing completion and thus, lower interest rates and the concomitant increase in consumption will merely offset the reduction in non-residential construction. As a result, the economy will grow at 3.5% in 2000-2001 and 3.2% in 2002.

On the negative side, Alberta's personal saving rate has dropped almost in half since 1985. As a result, consumer spending will be restrained as individuals attempt to rebuild their savings or reduce their debts.

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Q Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton a Alberta Savings Rate 20

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Severe winter heating requirements, a revitalized western U.S. export market and the re-building of depleted Alberta storage levels have eased gas-on-gas competition in the province over the past 8 to 10 months. As a the price for Alberta natural gas has strengthened relative to last year and is to average around $1.75 per GJ for 1997.

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Natural Gas Prices

Faced with some supply disruptions in the Atlantic Basin, world oil markets remained balanced through the summer months with strong U.S. gasoline demand offsetting the prospect of renewed Iraqi exports. With the end of the U.S. driving season and the arrival of Iraqi crude at U.S. Gulf ports, markets and prices should soften during the fall with West Texas Intermediate averaging around U.S.$20.50 per barrel for 1997. Thereafter, a gradual recovery in world oil prices is expected to be interrupted by a much anticipated mild winter heating season in the coming year and the possible development of a major new oil field in the former Soviet Union. Consequently, the current forecast calls for prices to drop slightly to U.S.$20.00 in 1998, firm somewhat in 1999, before softening again in 2000 with the assumed introduction of substantial new volumes of non-OPEC oil.

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Over the coming year, continued growth in North American industrial demand and the addition of expanded pipeline capacity to the Eastern and Midwest markets should provide the setting for further increases in Alberta gas prices over the medium term. However,this continued rise may be postponed one year due to the unusually small heating requirements associated with the El Nino effect expected for the winter of 1997/98. Therefore, the forecast calls for natural gas prices to remain around $1.75 per GJ in 1998, before rising

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steadily to around $2.15 by 2002.

World Oil Prices 25

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The following are some major resource

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(See Appendix I for the complete list of major projects for Northern Alberta).

These projects will have a significant impact economic activity in Alberta and the Edmonton region:

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Imperial Oil plans to spend $1.3 billion to expand its in-situ operation at Cold Lake between 1996 and 2000.

P Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

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SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton * *

Nova plans to spend $400 million on another ethylene derivatives plant at Joffre.

Work is expected to commence in 1998 and last until 2000.

Alberta BioClean Fuels plans to spend $685 million on the construction of an automotive fuel additive plant in Strathcona County. Construction is expected to last from 1997 to 1999.

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Shell Canada plans to spend $375 million to build a 500 km pipeline. Construction could begin in 2000. As well, Shell Canada plans to spend $1 billion on the development of a mine and extraction plant in the Fort McMurray area. Construction will commence in 1998 and finish in 2002.

Shell plans to spend another $1.8 billion to build an upgrader at its oil refinery at Scotford. Construction is expected to begin in 1999. The project should create 2,000 jobs during construction and 200 jobs during operation.

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AT Plastics Inc. plans to spend $120 million to expand its Edmonton polymers plant. Construction will be completed in 1998. The expansion will create 50 to 200 construction jobs. When completed, the plant will employ 40 additional full-time workers and increase its production by 70%.

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Diashowa-Marubeni International Ltd. proposes to invest $900 million to

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* Suncor plans to spend $2.2 billion to almost triple heavy oil production at its Fort McMurray area plant by 2002. It should create 5,000 to 6,000 direct and indirect jobs over the expansion period.

Suncor also plans to spend $700 million in 1997 to expand its Fort McMurray refinery

construct a lightweight coated paper mill with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons.

with two new $300 million vessels, Suncor will also begin work on its new

This project is expected to create 300 direct jobs and 2,000 person-years of employment during construction. They are also planning to upgrade their High Level sawmill for value added lumber production and a wood chipping facility to process coniferous pulp logs.

Steepbank mine. Once completed, the estimated employment the plant expansion and the Steepbank mine are 350 and 1,040 person-years, respectively, * Syncrude expects to spend $2 billion over

the next ten years on oil sands development.

* * Grande Paper Alberta plans to construct a $900 million pulp and paper mill in the Grande area. Prairie SDow Chemical Canada plans to spend

$200 million to expand its ethylene plant at Fort Saskatchewan, which could create 400 to 500 construction jobs.

SNova and Union Carbide plan to invest

$825 million expanding the existing ethylene production complex at Joffre; Union Carbide plans to build a $270 million polyethylene plant (near Joffre) at Prentiss over the next four years. These two projects are expected to create 900 construction jobs and 230 permanent jobs.

1997 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October

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Broken Hill Properties plans to build a $750 million diamond mine in the North West Territories. The mine should create 1,000 construction jobs and 830 permanent jobs over the mine's 25 year life span.

Net migration to Alberta from other provinces and countries is expected to average 30,000 persons annually in 1997 and 1998, up from 18,000 in 1996. As the pace of job creation slackens, net migration should fall to 28,000 in 1999 and trend downwards to 24,000 by 2002. The forecast assumes that the Alberta unemployment rate will remain below the Canadian rate for the entire forecast period.

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton ,

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* The consolidation of all scheduled

passenger flights at the Edmonton International Airport and construction of the terminal in 1997 is expected to increase from 1.9 million passengers to about 2.7 million at the airport. The construction of the airport will cost $170 million to $250 million over the next five years.

Net Migration Alberta

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Camrose Development Ltd. plans to build a $250 million retail complex on a 300 acre site at 23 Avenue and Calgary Trail, starting in 1997. About 3,500 construction jobs will be created over the next five years.

EDMONTON

SA multi-use $18 million building complex The Edmonton economy will benefit from strong growth in non-residential construction activity in northern Alberta.

is being built by Remington Development Corp. in a west Edmonton industrial park between 181 Street and 184 Street.

S In addition to the investment projects in the energy and forestry sectors, as mentioned in the preceding section, the following construction projects will have significant impact on the Edmonton economy over the

Carlson Projects North has started building a warehouse distribution centre in the west end of Edmonton. About 50 construction jobs will be created. They are also constructing a $2.3 million hotel complex,

next five years: * TransAlta Enterprises will spend $73 million to build a garbage composter plant at Clover Bar over the next three years.

This project will generate 400 construction jobs and 50 permanent jobs. *

The provincial government and the City will spend about $70 million in 1996-98 to

extend Anthony Henday Drive from Stony Plain Road to Yellowhead Trail and Whitemud Drive from 17th Street to Highway #14. * The move of 3,500 military personnel and their families to Edmonton Garrison from Calgary and Chilliwack will be facilitated by $100 million for construction at the base. The Edmonton Garrison is expected to have an annual economic impact of $500 million in the region.

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in Sherwood Park.

Fonorola and Ledcor Industries will be hiring 90 workers based in Edmonton to lay a fibre optic network from Edmonton to Toronto along the CNR tracks The project will cost $120 million.

Cambridge Shopping Centres Ltd. is planning to spend $8 million to improve

Southgate Mall and another $2 million to renovate Heritage Mall.

Dorsett Hotels and Resorts International plans to spend $22 million to convert the Cambridge Building on Jasper Avenue into a 183 room Radisson Plaza hotel.

The Federal/Provincial Municipal Infrastructure Program has been extended for one more year. The City is estimated to get $25 million for public works which will create 400 jobs in 1997-98.

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Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

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CAE Aviation was awarded a $135 million contract by the Canadian Department of National Defence for avionics updates of C130 Hercules aircraft.

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Edmonton's population declined from 627,000 in 1993 to 616,300 in 1996 as negative net migration exceeded positive natural increase. However, the expected positive net migration will result in population growth over the next five years. Edmonton's population will increase by 1.3% per year from an estimate of 616,300 in 1996 to 625,500 in 1997 and 665,600 in 2002.

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Population in the Edmonton C.M.A. will also by 1.1% a year from 862,400 in 1996 to 875,700 in 1997 and 936,100 in 2002.

Population Edmonton's population is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.3%peryearfrom an estimate of 616,300 in 1996 to 665,600 in 2002.

*

Trise g The net migration to the City of Edmonton 1996 up was estimated at -3,300 persons in from -11,000 in 1995 and -12,000 in 1994.

Over the forecast period, the regional and provincial unemployment rates are expected to decline relative to the rest of Canada as labour market conditions improve in the province. In addition, continued fiscal restraint in the rest of Canada will combine with improved Alberta labour market

Edmonton Population City and C.M.A. 1000 s800 r-600.

V 00 40

0

conditions to attract job seekers from other provinces to Alberta and the Edmonton region. Net migration to Edmonton is forecast to total 4,500 annually from 1997 to 1998 and decrease to 3,500 by the end of the forecast period, S

Similarly, net migration for the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.) is expected to average 7,500 persons annually from 1997 to 1998 and decline to 6,000 persons by the end of the forecast. (See Appendix II for the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area boundaries.)

S6

31 C.M.A. Icity

-12 0

94

95

96

97

98

Year

99

0

1

2

0

0 *

0 0

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Year

m

0

1

2

The average age of the City's population will continue to climb as the "baby boomers" (those born between 1947 and 1967) age. The population in the under 45 age group is expected to account for 66.1% of the population by 2002 down from 70.0% in 1996. The changing demographic composition will have important implications for the real estate market, since the percentage of the population in the 25-34 age group (first time home buyers) and the 35-44 age group (move up market) are expected to fall. The total number of individuals in the 25-44 years age groups are expected to decline in both

Et Edmonton Net Migration and C.M.A. 9City

03 S-3

Cty

200

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

absolute and relative terms. The share of the population aged 15-24 (labour market entrants) is expected to be 14.9% by 2002, up from 14.2% in 1996. The population share in the 0-14 age group (elementary school) is expected to decline from 20.4% in 1996 to 19% by 2002. Finally, the percentage of

I

~Socio-Economic

Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton economy is expected to grow by 4.3% in 1997 and 4.0% in 1998, up from 2.6% in 1996. As the construction projects move towards completion, economic growth is expected to fall to 3.5% in 1999 and 3.0% in 2002.

individuals in the 65+ age group (retirees) is projected to grow to 11.9% in 2002 from 11.1% in 1996.

25

Population Distribution City of Edmonton 0215 E992002

20

Labour Market The unemployment rate will average 7.1% in 1997, 6.4% in 1998, and 5.2% in 2002.

a- 0

s 0-14 15-24 25-34 3544 45-54

The total employment in the Edmonton C.M.A. was estimated at 454,000 persons in 1996, an increase of 1,000 over the 1995 estimate. The forecast calls for employment to grow by 19,000 persons to 473,000 in 1997, as the region benefits from strong investment in northern Alberta. By 1998, total employment will average 490,000 persons and this will 2002. to 517,000 increase to by 2002. persons by 517,000 persons

ss-64 6s5+

Age Group

Output

Output

The Edmonton C.M.A. will grow at 4.3% in 1997, 1999 and 4.0% in 1998, 3.5% 0 and3. between 002.increase 2001 in annually 2001, and 3.0% in 2002. m

a

a

The employment growth in the region will track that in the province. The goods producing industries will experience aboveaverage growth rates whereas the government supported service sector will grow below average.

Activity in the goods and private serviceproducing sectors will be supported by energy and forestry developments. In addition, the transfer of 3,500 military personnel to the Canadian Forces Base Edmonton will add further stimulus to the local economy. The forecast assumes that the Edmonton region will continue to function as the refining and service centre for the oil and gas industry in Alberta. For example, as of 1997, the

520

Edmonton region had over 93% of Alberta's refining capacity.

s00 5 480

The economy will gather momentum in 1997 and continue for the rest of the forecast period as construction begins on several projects in northern Alberta. Total employment will increase, resulting in an increase in the region's total wage bill. Increasing labour incomes will stimulate spending in different sectors of the economy such as housing and retail trade. Consequently, the total value of all goods and services in the Edmonton

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

Edmonton C.M.A.

on

E

0

) 460

o 440

420 40oo 94

95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

Year a

The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7.1% in 1997, down from 8.5% in 1996 and 8.9% in 1995 As job opportunities improve in the region, individuals who had given up

12

SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton addition, a stronger Canadian dollar should keep imported inflation low. Therefore, Edmonton's inflation will rise to average 2.7% in 1997 from 2.2% in 1996. The rate is expected to increase to 3.0% in 1998 and 1999 before declining to 2.5% by 2002. As a result, the region's inflation rate remains within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%.

looking for work will be attracted back to the labour market. As a result, the forecast expects the unemployment rate to fall slowly over the forecast as employment growth gradually outstrips labour force growth. The unemployment rate should slip to 5.2% by 2002.

Unemployment Rate Edmonton C.M.A

12

Construction

10.

8-

The recovery in the construction sector will continue in 1997 andfor the rest of the forecast period

8 4.

2.

O, 94

95 96

98

97

99

0

2

1

Year

inflation Inflation *3.5%

The inflation rate will range between 2.5% and over the forecastpouaingotrelednalre 3.5% over the forecast

3

Inflation Rate - CPI Edmonton C.M.A.

32.5-

-2 1.s I.1 0.5 S5 94 95

m

96 97 Year 9

1

Over the forecast period, The economy is expected to experience positive growth.

However, this growth will not cause undue inflationary pressures because the economy will continue to experience excess capacity. In

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

z

During 1995 and 1996, the construction activity in Edmonton was restrained by excess supply in both residential and non-residential markets. High levels of housing construction in 1993 coupled with weak demand stemming

from relatively high interest rates, lagging low growth,inand incomeresulted employment a large population growth inventory of unsold houses. As interest rates and house prices fell in 1996, home ownership became very affordable and as a result, the sales to listing ratio for re-sale housing increased to 49% in 1996 from 38% in 1995.

The number of re-sale homes sold in 1996 increased by 30.2% to 11,566 units, as buyers took advantage of low interest rates and affordable house prices. In 1997, the arrival of the final batch of military personnel at CFB Edmonton should add to the demand for offbase civilian housing.

The building permit values increased to $407 million in 1996 from $371 million in 1995.

This reversed a four year trend of declining permit values. The building permit values for the first nine months of 1997 totalled $398.6 million up from $288.4 million for the same period 1996. The forecast calls for building permit values to range between $500 and $600

13

I

~Socio-Economic

Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

million in 1997 and remain in that range for the rest of the forecast period.

Starts Housing City & C.M.A.

FIt7A

0

6000

400 500C 400 300 4 200 100 09

03001000.

0 94 95

98 Year

9

40001000 2000.

94 95 96 97

a

500

soow1 NHigh

Building Permits City of Edmonton

99

0

1

2

_earactivity

Edmonton's housing starts totalled 1,935 units in 1996, up 42 units from 1995 but well below the 1993 level of 4,235 units. The increase in building activity in 1996 stopped a three-year deildinest ain uin p a decline in housing starts. With an improvement in building permit activity, low interest rates, positive net migration and a stronger labour market, housing starts should increase to 2,800 units in 1997 and 3,000 in 1998. Housing starts will fall to 2,800 units in 1999 as short-term rates are increased by the omatpoitca o too combat Cnaa political Canada Bank ofBan uncertainty over the future of Quebec in Canada. With lower interest rates, total housing starts should increase to 3,000 units annually in 2000 and 2001. By the end of the forecast period, total housing starts fall to 2,800 units as the region experiences slower economic growth.

.

C.M.A. Edmonton Total housing starts in the up 556 in 1996, units in 3,638 was9was 3,638 units 1996, up 556 units units from from 1995. The forecast expects housing starts to

total 4,700 in 1997 and 5,000 units in 1998 and decrease to 4,800 units annually by 1999 as interest rates increase. By 2000 and 2001, total housing starts will increase to 5,000 annually and then 2002decline to 4,700 units by 2002.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

m

96

97

98 99 Year

0

1

2

In the non-residential market, construction was concentrated in the industrial sector, where the average vacancy rate was 6.5% in 1996 up from 6.2% in 1995. This activity was driven by strong demand for warehousing space by firms active in northern Alberta. Construction activity in the industrial sector should continue in 1997 as the inventory of industrial space remains relatively low. In addition, a significant amount of industrial space is obsolete and in applies to the need of upgrading. The same institutional sector where the Edmonton Public School Board reports that it requires Public School Board reports that it requires about $100 million to upgrade its ageing schools. In addition, the Edmonton Catholic School Board expects to spend $9 million expects to spend $9 million School next few years to renovate its theBoard over over the next few years to renovate its schools. schools.

Real Estate Market Real Estate Market -The apartment vacancy rate will average 5.5% in 1997 andfall to 3. 0% by 2002. The downtown office space vacancy rate will average 16.5% in 1997 andfall to 13% by 2002.

The apartment vacancy rate averaged 7.6% in

October 1996, down from 10.2% in 1995 and 8.9% in 1994. This stops a six-year trend of rising vacancy rates. The reduction in the vacancy rate is attributable to positive net

14

Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton ,Socio-Economic

.

0 Smarket

migration and the conversion of apartments to condominiums, apartment vacancy rate is SEdmonton's 5.5% in 1997 forecast to average 5.5% 1997 and and trend trend Edmonton as downwards to 3.0% by 2002 experiences improved labour market conditions and positive net migration.

The vacancy rate in the downtown office increased marginally to 16.9% from 16.3% in 1995. In 1996, the downtown office market benefited from provincial economic growth as the number of businesses in this area increased from 2,093 to 2,238. However, this growth was not enough to completely offset the negative effects of public and private sector restructuring on the office market. Consequently, the office market experienced its sixth consecutive year of negative absorption.

*.4

18

*

0

Apartment fice Space

15 .12

9

a6.

3 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2

Year

are downside risks to the forecast

,There

The forecast assumes that the worst of the public and private sector restructuring is over.

If these organizations continue to restructure the forecast should be revised downwards.

92

93

94

95

96

Year

m

Vacancy Rate City of Edmonton

City of Edmonton

(&-12 -16 S 20 -24 -28, -28 91

*

The forecast calls for the downtown vacancy rate to fall to 16.5% by December 1997 and then decline continuously to 13.0% by 2002 as the rtsdowntown experiences positive absorption rates.

ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS

Office Space Absorption o

a

The downtown office market will be affected by the possible conversion of current office space to other uses as owners attempt to add value to their properties. The expected conversion of the Centennial Building to a senior citizens condominium and the planned conversion of the Cambridge Building to a hotel are examples of this. It is also expected that space will be released to the market as public sector leases expire. This should place upward pressure on the vacancy rate in the short term.

m

If world oil prices fall far below US$18 over the forecast period, the planned investment in the energy sector will be significantly curtailed and provincial government budget revenues will be reduced. As a result, economic activity in Alberta and Edmonton will be slower.

The Canadian forecast assumes that interest rates will stay relatively stable over the forecast period. This assumption could be changed by the following events: * *

fear of higher inflation rates in the U.S.; continued political uncertainty over the future of Quebec;

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

15

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

1

I. m

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, *

a much lower than forecast Canadian dollar; and

*

a higher than forecast federal budget deficit.

I

City of Edmonton

Any or a combination of these events will exert pressure on the Canadian dollar and thus force the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates. Higher than the forecast interest rates will curtail economic activity and result in a lower growth rate.

There are upside risks to the forecast g

Unexpected increases in provincial revenues may allow the Alberta government more fiscal room to reduce provincial taxes or increase spending or a combination of both. If this scenario materializes, Alberta economic growth and local employment will be higher than the forecast.

m

If the anticipated oil sand and other resourcesrelated projects proceed earlier than expected, economic growth in Alberta and Edmonton over the next five years will be higher than the forecast.

s

A much higher than forecast Canadian dollar which will allow the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates further than forecast.

0

0 0 0 P

0

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

16

0

0Lm

I

Socio-Economic Forecast,1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Forecast

Actual

Indicator

S

World Oil Price (U.S. $1Barrel) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($1G.J) S * *

0

1997

1994

1999

2000

2001

2002

U.S.A., Canada and Alberta

17.10

18.40

22.01

20.50

20.00

20.30

20.00

20.50

21.00

1.72

1.25

1.54

1.75

1.75

1.85

1.95

2.05

2.15

3.5

2.0

4.6 4.4

2.2 2.3

2.8 1.5 2.5

3.5, 3.5 4.3,

2.5 3.0 4.0

3.0 2.0 3.5

3.0 3.0 3.5

3.0 3.0 3.5

6.9 0.73

8.7 0.73

6.1 0.73

4.9 0.73

5.3 0.74

6.5 0.72

5.5 0.74

5.0

5.0

0.75

0.75 24.0

Economic Growth Rate (%) U.S.A. Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (%) Exchange Rate (U.S.$1Can$) Net Migration (Alberta) (000)

3.0 3.0 3.2

6.0

18.3

18.0

30.0

30.0

28.0

26.0

24.0

(6.9)

(5.6)

0.5

7.5

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

- City (000)

(12.0)

(11.0)

(3.3)

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

6.0 3.5

Population - C.M.A. (000) - City (000)

855 621

856 615

862 616

876 625

889 634

901 643

913 651

925 658

936 665

Edmonton

*

S

1998

Net Migration - C.M.A.(000)

Economic Growth Rate (%)

N.A.

N.A.

2.6

4.3

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.0

439

453

454

473

490

500

507

512

517

10.4 1.6

8.9 2.0

8.5

7.1

6.4

5.9

5.6

5.4

5.2

2.2

2.7

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.5

Apartment (Oct) Downtown Office (Dec) Housing Starts (Units)

8.9 17.3

10.2 16.3

7.6 16.9

5.5 16.5

5.0 15.5

4.5 14.5

4.0 14.0

3.5 13.5

3.0 13.0

- Total - Single Family

3,151

1,893

1,935

2,800

3,000

2,800

3,000

3,000

2,800

1,690

1,130

1,421

2,000

2,100

2,000

2,100

2,100

2,000

- Multi-Family

1,461

763

514

800

900

800

900

900

800

5,006

3,082

3,638

4,700

5,000

4,800

5,000

5,000

4,700

3,225 1,781

2,159 923

2,944 694

3,700 1,000

3,900 1,100

3,800 1,000

3,900 1,100

3,900 1,100

3,700 1,000

407

500 600

500 600

500 600

500 600

500 600

500 600

Employment (C.M.A.) Unemployment Rate (C.M.A.) (%) Inflation Rate - CPI (C.M.A.) (%) Vacancy Rate (City) (%)

City

C.M.A. - Total - Single Family - Multi-Family Building Permit Value - Low -(City) ($million) - High

443

371

Sources: 1. 1994-96 actual: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Inc., Canadian Petroleum Association, and Edmonton Planning and Development Dept.

2. 1997 - 2002 forecasts: City Forecast Committee, October 1997.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

17

Table 2 Population Forecast, 1994 - 2002: City of Edmonton Age

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

actual 0-4

47,045

45,610

43,862

42,729

42,601

43,035

42,778

42,656

42,596

42,594

5-9

44,412

43,227

42,574

42,244

42,583

42,244

42,423

42,173,

41,709

41,483

10-14

39,730

40,494

40,396

40,798

41,228

41,403

41,488

42,106

42,387

42,650

15-19

38,992

'38,287

38,774

40,069

41,587

43,328

45,007

45,797

46,611

46,982

20-24

55,804

52,786

49,754

47,391

47,168

46,945

47,505

49,026

50,723

52,144

25-29

60,367

56,006

53,157

52,532

53,523

54,156

53,567

52,621

51,131

50,750

30-34

64,305

62,126

58,920

55,641

53,540

51,551

49,938

49,745

50,356

51,182

35-39

58,171

58,708

58,622

59,330

59,469

59,359

58,960

57,574

55,194

53,000

40-44

45,399

47,162

48,810

50,806

53,141

55,414

57,056

58,105,

59,364

59,434

45-49

35,556

36,686

38,395

40,118

41,409

42,952

45,357

47,660

49,956

52,213

50-54

27,921

28,543

28,899

29,767

31,645

33,510

35,063

37,171

39,060

40,292

55-59

24,705

24,449

24,465

24,666

25,186

25,967

26,922

27,596

28,591

30,378

60-64

23,954

23,338

22,595,

22,080

22,005

22,098

22,181

22,498

22,827

23,295

65-69

21,049

21,340

21,540

21,692

21,585

21,414

21,114

20,691

20,350

20,266

70-74

16,449

17,461

18,074

18,650

18,993

19,400

19,805

20,134

20,348

20,240

75-79

10,952

11,243

11,718

12,509

13,451

14,295

15,236

15,834

16,362

16,647

80-84

6,966

7,557

8,164

8,673

9,192

9,640

9,928

10,371

11,059

11,851

85+

5,222

5,666

6,153

6,674

7,148

7,673

8,335

9,029

9,642

10,201

626,999

620,693

614,871

616,369

625,454

634,384

642,662

650,789

658,265

665,599

Total

Net-Migration Natural Increase

(12,000)

(11,000)

(3,300)

4,500

4,500

4,000

4,000

3,500

3,500

5,694

5,178

4,798

4,585

4,430

4,278

4,127

3,976

3,834

1997 Prepared by: Planning and Development Departrnent, The City of Edmonton, October Committee for net-migration population.

City Forecast for 1993 base Edmonton Census Source: 1993 City of Note: 1996 population are adjusted to match 1996 Census of Canada data.

Prepared by. City Forecast Committee, October 1997

18

Table 3 Population Forecast, 1994 - 2002: Edmonton C.M.A. Age

1991

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

actual 0-4

66,830

61,081

58,533

56,399

56,363

56,406

56,557

56,831

57,226

57,718

5-9

65,570

64,125

63,153

62,623

61,734"

60,945

59,551

58,183

56,567

56,395

10-14

58,720

62,008

62,539

63,287

63,571

63,383

63,742

63,784

63,734

62,738

15 -19

57,780

60,627

61,694

62,637

64,246

66,205

67,761

69,039

70,097

70,261

20-24

69,075

66,974

65,473

65,480

67,446

69,429

71,597

73,589

74,906

76,331

25-29

80,290

69,125

67,037

67,648

68,931

69,889

70,411

70,609

71,370

73,098

30-34

85,180

80,742

77,080

72,825

69,879

67,313

65,797

65,804

67,388

68,447

35-39

75,135

80,801

81,042

81,208

81;354

80,732

79,356

77,149

73,614

70,537

40-"

63,200

67,774

70,129

72,944

75;595

78,427

80,131

81,288

81,912

81,961

45-49

46,705

55,887

58,402

60,890

61,975,

63,543

66,365

69,229

72,269

74,821

50-54

37,340

41,441

42,906

44,637

48,392,

51,499

54,296

57,099

59,688

60,713

55-59

33,015

33,799

34,365

35,173

36,436

38,088

39,710

41,383

43,174

46,768

60-64

29,900

30,096

29,883

29,991

30,151 ,

30,685

31,261

32,030

32,899

34,056

65-69

25,020

26,253

26,648

26,936

27,262

27,404

27,523

27,532

27,723

27,845

70-74

18,330

21,857

22,463

23,017

23,341

23,854

24,335

24,823

25,147

25,415

75-79

13,230

14,484

15,107

15,947

17,126

18,125

19,083

19,664

20,171

20,437

80-84

8,225

10,160

10,870

11,589

12,136

12,537

12,716

13,283

14,016

15,006

85+

6,370

7,928

8,564

9,151

9,761

10,432

11,287

12,125

12,902

13,524

839,915

855,160

855,888.

862,383

875,700

888,896

901,478

913,445

924,805

936,073

( 5,604)

500

7,500

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

6,000

5,995

5,817

5,696

5,582

5,467

5,360

5,268

Total

Net-Migration

Natural Increase

(6,854)

6,332

Prepared by: Planning and Development Department, The City of Edmonton, October 1997 Source: 1991 Census of Canada for 1991 base population. Statistics Canada for net-migration 1992-1995.

City Forecast Committee for net-migration forecast for 1996-2002.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1997

19

Alberta receives $347 million less in 1998/99 than in 1995/96.

PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST

i

CANADA Modest re-investment in social programs will occur over the forecast period as the federal deficit is brought under control and governments remain committed to balanced budgets. It is quite unlikely Canadians will see a return to the level offunding and serv ice provision of the early 1990s.

Canada Health & Social Transfer to Alberta

1 , 1 00

M Re-investment â– Cash Transfer

~ 1 ,000 0 E 40 Soo

i

soo 96197

97198

98/99

99100

Year

o

While re-investment will occur and increased employment will provide significant benefits to Canadians, government cutbacks and displacement of human services to the volunteer sector and family members is creating additional demands and stress.

Workplace stress, reduction in family

The Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), which provides financial transfers to the provinces for health, post-secondary education and social services, was reduced by $2.5 billion for the current fiscal year, 1997/98. Alberta will receive an estimated $407 million less from the CHST in 1997/98 than it did in 1995/96. Beyond 1997/98 the decrease in transfers to the provinces will level off as the Federal Government commits to invest half of budgetary surpluses in services and bring CHST payments to the provinces to $12.5 billion annually. Alberta will receive an estimated additional $60 million in 1998/99 and another $62 million in 1999/2000 for cumulative re-investment of $122 million. The net effect will be that

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1997

The Federal-provincial arrangement to increase the Child Tax Benefit to low-income families with children indicates both a trend to improve working relationships with other levels of government as well as a commitment to reduce child poverty. The annual increase in the Child Tax Benefit will be $850 million per year nationally with another $850 million to be added over future years. Actual payments will not occur until mid-1998. An estimate of the annual benefit going directly to Alberta low-income families with children is $85 million. Families with incomes below $20,921 will receive an annual increase of up to $405 per year for the first child and $330 for each additional child. Families with incomes above $25,921 will not receive an increase in their Child Tax Benefit. Families on welfare will not receive an increase until leaving welfare as the program is also intended as an incentive to work initiative.

However, under the agreement, provinces will divert welfare savings into other programs and services benefiting low-income families.

spending power, and problems balancing home and work are becoming more evident.

Over the forecast period these trends are

likely to become better documented and quantified. o

Canada has repeatedly been ranked as the most "liveable" country by United Nations organizations. However, the standard of living dropped from second highest among 13 industrialized nations in 1989 to 7th in 1996.

20

I ASocio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton, *

ALBERTA The human service policies, processes, and joutcomes will continue to be influenced by new re-definition of the role of funding arrangements, and increased accountability. As at t the federal level, modest re-investment will occur.

*

m

The reductions in funding of human services in Alberta, which result from the re-definition of the role of government, public support for strong fiscal management, and the impact of fund reductions at the federal level, may be lessened to some degree as re-investment at both the provincial and federal levels begins to occur. Spending dollars wisely and

M

Seniors (65+ age group) Supports for Independence (Welfare) Cases 1996/97* Welfare Cases rate 1996/97* Child Unemployment adjusted)** rate6.0% seasonally loyment Un(Sept/97 (Sept/97 seasonally adjusted)

0

19,187 : 12,765 3,700: 2,645 6.5% 6.0% 6.5%

Canada.Others are as noted

and agencies. of governments overriding goals of governments and agencies.

The priorities set at the September 1997 Economic Growth Summit, hosted by the

a

billion government surplus, will result in modest re-investment in the human services.

Alberta re-investment may go beyond the expected increase in CHST cash transfers, and programat transfers, training employment Child Tax Benefit increases the Federal Federal the at Child Tax Benefit increases Government. This has become evident by the recent announcement of a $110 million reinvestment in Education and Health.

*

7.8%

Sources: Figuresfor single parentfamilies, education level, income, and seniors arefrom the 1991 Census of *

a

The Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit (1997) will increase income for low-income and middle-income working families with children. The credit amount depends on employment earnings and overall income per family. The maximum credit is $250 per year for one child and $500 per year for two or more children, and will double in 1998.

a

While some of the major indicators of need, such as the unemployment rate, will perform more positively over the forecast period, Edmonton will continue to reflect a consistently lower level of socio-economic status than Calgary. Thus the proportion of

The disparities between the two cities will be

better addressed as funding formulae

Alberta Government, and an anticipated $1.2

0

9.4% :

For Alberta Familyand Social Services regionsthat are largerthan the cities. ** Statistics Canada,Labour Force Survey

forming effective partnerships will be

*

people accessing health and social services will be higher for Edmonton.

Socio-economic Edmonton / Calarnomic Factors: Socio-Need 16.2% : 13.2% Single-Parent Families 8.7% : 4.3% than Grade 9 Education Sgovernment, Less 19.0% : 17.0% Low-Income families

development continues to shift from strict per capita models for regional health services, regional services to children, and preventive social services. a

Many of the provincial granting agencies have been amalgamated, but at the same time, the amount of grant funds available has dropped overall.

a

The Community Lottery Boards (CLBs) are being developed to determine which community organizations will share in some revenues from gambling currently going into provincial coffers. Municipalities will not have access to these funds. $11 million per year is expected to be available to community groups in Edmonton's CLB region.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1997

21

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

2

I

~Socio-Economic

recreational services and preventive social services will become evident.

EDMONTON Demographic Changes The increases in the 75+ and 15-19 year age groups will be the most significant demographic trends during the forecast period m The "baby-boomers", currently in their 40s and 50s, will become the overriding demographic group of interest over the longterm, however this age group is not considered to be as vulnerable as others from a social and economic perspective. At the same time, this group needs to be considered due to its sheer numbers and the fact that the older component of the group may experience significant stresses over the forecast period, The 45 to 55 year age group will increase by 19,450 or 27% over the next five years. This increase will likely have implications for that

m

portion of the age group that needs to find new employment and for the specific health services used by this group. Social issues will include coping with the stresses of finding new employment, caring for ageing parents, and helping to meet needs of adult children not in the workforce.

The 75+ age group in the population will grow by about 9,000 or 30% during the forecast period. A high proportion of this age group will be women living alone. The demand for services for this age group, such

as health care, exercise programs, seniors

S

I

Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

housing, and aids to daily living will increase significantly. Isolation and conflicts with adult children may be additional social issues facing this group.

The 15 - 19 age group will increase by over 7,000 or 13%, resulting in increased challenges for secondary schools and may also result in an increase in some types of property crimes, and demand for young offender services. An increase in demand for

The 0 - 9 age group will decline by more than 1,000 or 1.3% during the forecast period.

This will ease pressure on day care and outof-school care. However, increasing employment opportunities and incentives to work programs will result in a significant number of mothers entering the workforce, placing upward pressure on child care services. The employment trend will far outweigh the demographic trend over the forecast period. m Net-migration is forecast to remain positive.

In-migrants are generally young, and the increase will create some additional demand for housing, child care services, and other human services. g

0

Employment and Unemployment _

The well-being of many Edmontonians will be enhanced by the current and projected positive economic environment m Positive social impacts will derive from a decreasing unemployment rate, increasing employment, low inflation, and lower mortgage rates. This environment will result in increased financial independence, improved health status, and empowerment for those Edmontonians obtaining full-time jobs with benefits and those successful with small

business ventures. Therefore, the utilization of some elements of social services may be reduced. m The limited gains in wage settlements will not keep pace with the projected 2.7% to 3% annual inflation rate, and inflation may remain below the level at which income tax categories are indexed. Therefore, middle income Edmontonians, who do not gain from the Federal Child Tax Benefit increase or the Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit may

0

0 0

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

22

9

0

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton continue to see a reduction in spending power. while Employment Insurance As well, ~Group, premiums have decreased slightly, Canada Pension Plan premiums are being increased significantly. The decreases in the former will be more than off-set by increases in the latter.

More people will be working from home with high technology assistance. Greater use of technology, supported by new Federal Government initiatives, will spill over into areas such as home schooling and other aspects of education and commerce.

_a --

Employment Rates for Selected Age Rates for Selected Employment Edmonton C.M.A. Age 70 65

I 60 5

I

standard" (self-employment, part-time, short-

89

88

87

0

Many new jobs are, and will be, "non-

CMA -AgEdmonton

90

I

:

91 92 Year Year

93

94

96

95

Note: The employment rate represents the number of persons employed in an age group as a percent of the population in the age group.

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Cat. 71-001.

term) and come without benefits and job security. Therefore, a significant group of employed Edmontonians will not enjoy the security that others will experience. This group will encounter stresses due to the insecurity and lack of benefits. A significant

20 is

segment of them will shift between

0

Unemployment Rates for Selected Age Goup, Edmonton C.M.A. 124 Age Group

employment, training and employment programs, and short-term periods on welfare.

CMA WEdmonton I C::

-87

Youth Unemployment

0

I

I a

88

89

90

9,1

92

93

94

96

95

The proposed government action to address youth unemployment may help stabilize the widening gap between the rates ofyouth employment and adult employment.

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Cat. 71-001.

a

The demandfor technical training,more closely tied to employment opportunitiesthan university education, is beingfuelled by the improving economy and increasingjob opportunities.

The youth unemployment rate (15-24 age group) has traditionally been higher than, and sometimes double, the overall unemployment rate. The gap between the two groups has been widening, especially in relation to the employment rate (the percent of those in the age group who are employed). The priority action announced by the Federal Government in the September 22 Throne Speech, including increases to student loans, job forecasting, and transition to work programs, may have some positive impacts on reducing the youth unemployment rate over the forecast period.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

Education

m

m

Increasing post-secondary tuition fees have been impacting enrolment, but the impacts may be somewhat moderated by recently announced federal student initiatives.

The programs of a technical nature, more closely geared to employment, are being seen by more students as the educational alternative of choice. This is placing

23

0

0

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton meeting health and social needs, creating more stress on the family.

increasing pressure on enrolments in these programs. m

The number of high school graduates will continue to increase as the 15-19 age group and the number of out-of-province and foreign students increase. There is considerable and by by industry for retraining demand in multi-year Some students individuals. progrindividuals. Some pstudeponing completi-yng their programs are postponing completing their education as they are finding employment in their field, made possible by the buoyant economy.

The Volunteer and Not-for-Profit Sector The not-for-profit sector is a significant component ofEdmonton's economy. The many Thre many economy. volunteeron's organizationsin sector are the volunteer in the organizations becoming increasingly overextendedfinancially and are having difficulty attracting and supporting their volunteers. x

Regionalization and Restructuring The Government of Alberta will continue to shf responsibilitinue to shiftn operationalmentofAlberta will an services to local boards ofareas sopeverational several areas of services to local boards and authorities.

Alberta leads North America in per capita participation in volunteer activities.

Edmonton's volunteer and not-for-profit sector has a direct financial impact on the local economy. The social service element alone has an impact of over $500 million in transactions and a $130 million payroll (1994). Coupled with other volunteer areas the recreation, and culture, including sports, plays in the voluntary sector the role in significant role sector plays aa significant

0_

may result in of services S The regionalization n ddrssngloalvoluntary an nceaedfleibliy Edmonton economy. local addressing in an increased flexibility Edmonton economy. problems. However, as restructuring can have m Volunteerism is an important component of major impacts on traditional funding and social life, both as a satisfying pastime and as service delivery patterns, regionalization is an essential supplement to the operation of also pressuring municipalities to play a role of most not-for-profit groups and agencies. monitoring and, through elected officials, Willingness to volunteer appears to increase voicing concerns when necessary. with levels of income and education, and is g the funding of the Services greatest in the 30 to 44 year age group, r] A major issue for particularly in households with school allocation fund be will to Children Regions with school inhouseholds particularly with considerableof funds Seniors or adjustment and the reimbursement reipintsmigateacrsschildren. whe sevic disposable time are less likely to do volunteer when service recipients migrate across

work than younger adults. Those seniors who do, however, are more active in terms of the

regional boundaries. Another issue will be

reconciling the match between need as estimated by the fund allocation model and the actual utilization patterns. A related issue will be the re-defining of need and reprioritization of needs that will take place with a new form of administration and 18 regions across the province, S There will continue to be a shift in service responsibilities to the community, families, and individuals. In particular, women will be required to shoulder more of the burden for

amount of time they commit to volunteer work. s

m

The large service systems, such as health and education, are competing for individual dollars, increasing donations and corporate financial pressures on smaller volunteer fiagencial pressures on smaller volunteer agencies.

The smaller volunteer agencies/organizations will likely have to fine tune their fund raising

0 9

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

24

24

0 0 0

I

*

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton to specific target groups. To ensure their viability, many will have to become more effective marketers of their services. Mergers and loss of some services to the community can be expected.

0 *

between the unemployment rate and the poverty rate.

Increased employment and lower unemployment rates could also see the number of food bank users level off (food bank usage more than doubled between 1991 and 1996).

a

The down-loading by all three levels of government and regional authorities, decreasing grants, increased competition for charitable dollars, and uncertainty as to the future of revenues from gaming are having impactsu200 impacts on volunteer organizations.

a

Edmonton Food Bank 250

="

in

Poverty

3

.c

The percentage of low-income families and children in Edmonton will continue to be higher than for Alberta as a whole. While the extent of to poverty is high in Edmonton it should begin level off over the forecast period Incidence of Children Under 18 Years in Low 25%

10%

so

aEdmontongary CMA

89

.

.

91

93

Year

96

95

Health Services

g

86

Year91

Year

95

The City of Edmonton makes up 71% of the

Note:

9 The Child Tax Benefit increase and the Family Employment Tax Credit, along with a decreasing unemployment rate will directly help reduce the depth and extent of poverty for working poor families with children not on welfare. One quarter of Edmonton (CMA) children live in families with incomes below the low-income cut-offs. This rate may decrease somewhat during the forecast period, given the historically close association

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

Over the forecast period, the health care system can expect increased demand from specific populations such as seniors over 75 years of age and Aboriginal people. These groups, as well as low-income individuals and o

s, a

elaloo

i

al

s and

families, have relatively poor health status and

significantly higher as the CMA contains a number of more Saffluent communities.

0 0

87

Source: Edmonton Gleaners Association

SEdmonton CMA, the incidence for the City alone would be

*

.

.

85

a

81

*

-

o

DEdmnton CMA

5%.

*

100-

Iagr DCanada M

15%

a

150

The reinvestment of additionalfunds in health care offers some promise that concerns in this area may be reduced

2s*-

20% 25%

0

/ oo=o1 '

Income Families

30%

010%

Child. ih..d-otal

200

P~~

high health care utilization.

g

a

The recent funding increases, especially due to the new Regional Health Authority funding model (1997) and the proposed increases to CHST announced in the 1997 Throne Speech, should cascade to the regional health authorities and make delivery of health services more manageable for the Capital Health Authority.

The downsizing of provincial institutions will see more mentally ill persons living and being treated in the community. Many may be

25

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton forced to live in inadequate or marginal inner city housing and this could create additional pressures on human services in the community. Additional support services will be needed to make this a smooth transition.

S

The current short supply of supportive living and group homes for vulnerable populations (e.g., frail elderly, mentally ill, disabled individuals, abused children, and troubled teens) will need to be addressed by local groups and provincial agencies during the forecast period. Conflicts with homeowners over specific locations of group homes may become an issue.

Z

9

employment resulting in reduced family stress.

Increasingly, social and related services will become more accountable as funding bodies move toward evaluation of programs, improved information systems, and strategic, outcome-based funding.

The proposed policy changes by the Alberta Government to decrease the Day Care Operating Allowance in 1998 and eliminate it in 1999, may not affect demand from lowincome families as the Day Care Subsidy to low-income parents will be increased a similar amount for children of most ages.

Social Services

Crime and Violence

Municipal revenue shortfalls for social services will result in City Council and Administration readdressing priorities.

The demographic and economic trends will create conditions which are likely to slow the current decrease in reported criminal activity. Fear of could continue to decrease as people realize crime the decrease in crime.

S The new Provincial policies do not permit municipalities to access the Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), as had been permitted with the previous Canada Assistance Plan. This has resulted in shortfalls in revenues for municipal social services programs and necessitated a re-examination of the services provided.

S

I

The municipal social services are no longer as universally available and will increasingly be targeted to those most in need.

of the Edmpopulation, 1990'partnerships betweeng

SThe Capital Region (including Edmonton, St.

Strathcona County) and Stratheona Albert and Children's County) Children's Services Authority will be implemented and to child welfare related services will move community agencies under contract to the Authority. The region has experienced a 12.3% increase in child welfare monthly cases (June 1996 - 3,543 cases; June 1997 - 3,980 cases). This increase is slightly greater than the 11.4% increase experienced provincewide. Increasing numbers may be tempered over the forecast period due to increased Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

Reductions in crime will continue in almost all kinds of crime (Criminal Code offences fell 40% between 1991 and 1996, while crimes against persons fell 36% in the same period). This is a trend mirrored across Canada and correlates with the ageing of the population. However, reductions over the forecast period will not be as significant as they have been during the first part of the 1990's. Ageing of the population,

Police

between the Edmonton Police partnerships Service and community groups will continue to help reduce crime. m

The citizen surveys conducted in 1994 and 1996 indicate the perceived level of neighbourhood crime has stabilized. These findings may indicate that the connection between falling crime rates and the fear of crime is subject to a time lag. People first detect change, then notice that it is sustained enough to be significant to them.

26

I0

*

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

SThe proportion of the population in the more crime prone 10-24 age group is projected to increase 9% by the end of the forecast period, A portion of these young people who face reduced opportunities to satisfy their material and social needs may become involved in crime.

*

g

S San

0

Seniors are more fearful of crime than is the general population, particularly in relation to personal victimization. Efforts directed at reducing fear of crime will need to take this demographic trend into account. family structure due to As a result As asomewhat ~iof changing increase in the elderly population, more older people will be cared for by, or living with, their adult children. Stresses caused by intensive care giving, without reprieve or relief, may result in increases in elder abuse.

m

non-mechanised outdoor and nature pursuits, and golf are on the upswing, Creative and cultural activities are holding relatively constant, as are downhill skiing and hobbies and snowboarding and more passive declined activities. Camping has spectator declined has spectator activities. Camping while hunting,

in popularity,

fishing, and ATV/4-wheel drive activities are down more substantially. g

Some recreation activities are showing a decline in popularity of over 20% over the last fifteen years (including dancing, rollerskating, racquetball, visiting museums, boating, skating-but not hockey, jogging, overnight camping, and crafts). Those leisure activities showing an increase in participation rates are golfing, playing video games, and bicycling. Edmonton trends closely parallel those for the entire province. Changes in participation rates and activity preferences can be linked to ageing of the population, but this does not fully explain the changes seen from 1981 to 1996.

m

The factors that prevent people from participating in recreational and leisure pursuits over the last fifteen years include cost (admissions/charges and cost of equipment/supplies), family and work commitments. In 1981, work commitments, lack of opportunity, and facility overcrowding were the most important barriers.

g

In 1996, fee reductions for City recreation facilities were issued to 6,645 individuals and 58 groups, indicating a considerable need for low cost or free leisure experiences. Increases in the number of fee reduction requests are expected as people become more aware of its

Recreation and Leisure While people are not able to recreate as much as in previous years, the needfor health-giving and fulfilling leisure activities is becoming ever more important as our lives get busier and more stressfuL This is especially so in light of increased pressures on the health and social support systems. The challenge for recreation providers will be to make the most effective use of resources to provide the opportunities that citizens can use and that contribute to the public good expressed that they had S49% of Edmontonians

free time for recreation aned that they hadisure 49%less 1991. and leisuren ime for recreation lepursuitsfree t pursuits in 1996 than they did in 1991.

Feelings of time constraint are likely to continue, g

The reasons people participate in leisure and recreational activities have remained relatively constant over the last fifteen years.

The highest-ranked reasons in 1996 were: for pleasure, relaxation, physical health or exercise, doing something different from

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

0

work, and enjoyment of nature. Competing, showing accomplishments to others, and getting away from the family ranked relatively low.

The trends in favourite activities among Edmontonians show a strong increase in team sports. Individual exercise-oriented activities,

27

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton availability. However, increased employment and disposable income should temper this increase,

Festivals and Major Events Edmonton is increasing its profile as a venue for major cultural, sporting, and music events increase its profile its profile increase aEdmonton will continue to as a venue for major national and international sporting and cultural events (e.g., the U2 concert, the return visit of the Rolling Stones, opening of the Winspear Centre, hosting the Grey Cup). m

A new Winter Festival made its debut in 1997.

While the number and magnitude of existing major festivals will maintain their present status, an increase in single-community-based cultural festivals is a trend to be watched.

[

More ethno-cultural groups will be presenting their own cultural celebrations to the total community, e.g., Cari-West, Giovanni Caboto Day. This increase has been spurred on by the Business Revitalization Zones (BRZs) in an attempt to establish unique characteristics of specific areas and the cultural experiences available in them.

and provincial levels of government. Many of the re-investment strategies will be coordinated and may be difficult to ascribe to one or the other level of government. What is certain is there will be sustained economic growth over the forecast period and therefore increased government revenue. The question of re-investment will be one of degree only.

The economic elements identified in the social forecast are subject to the risks identified for the economic forecast.

SOCIAL FORECAST RISKS S While the "baby boomer" population will show the greatest demographic change, the forecast does not view this age group as a vulnerable population over the next five years.

However, there may be unforeseen needs or issues that will be significant.

S The Federal Throne Speech was lacking in specific dollar amounts in a number of areas.

The Alberta Economic Growth Summit achieved consensus on priorities. However it is too early to know the extent of reinvestment that will occur by both the federal

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

28

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton

APPENDIXES I. Northern Alberta Major Projects Location

Description

2.5

Morinville

Pet food manufacturing plant

10.0

Forestburg

Minerva Animal Health Corp.

30.0

Edmonton area

Straw processing plant Manufacturing facility for pet skin care products

TransAlta Enterprises

73.0

Clover Bar

Composter

750.0

Northwest Territories

Diamond mine

224.0

Hinton

Surface mine and processing plant

250.0

Grande Cache

Coal mine

Value

Company

($millions) Agriculture & Related Champion Feed Services Ltd. Compak Forestburg Inc.

115.5

Sub total

Mining Broken Hill Properties(BHP) Cardinal River Coals Ltd.

.

Luscar Ltd.

Sub total

1,224.0

Oil/Gas/Oilsands Alberta Energy Company

13.0

Cold Lake/Foster Creek

In situ oilsands pilot project

Alberta Energy Company

200.0

Cold Lake/Foster Creek

Commercial in situ oilsands plant

Alberta Energy Company

400.0

Northem Alberta

Drilling activities

Wabasca

In situ oilsands

500.0

Primrose/Wolf Lake

Heavy oil development expansion

100.0

Wabasca

Property development

Cold Lake

In situ pilot oilsands plant

Amber Energy Inc. Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. BlackRock Ventures Inc.

28.0

8.0

Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd.

69.0

Hangingstone

Experimental oilsands plant

Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd.

126.0

Hangingstone

Commercial in situ oilsands plant

Olds

Gas plant expansion

Canadian 88 Energy Corporation

20.0

CS Resources Ltd.

250.0

Christina Lake

ELAN Energy Inc.

225.0

Lindbergh

In situ oilsands development Oilsands in situ production expansion

Saddle Hills

Sour gas plant and pipeline

Elk Point Resources

8.0

Gulf Canada Resources Ltd

15.0

Surmont

SAGD bitumen pilot project

Gulf Canada Resources Ltd

200.0

Surmont

Imperial Oil Ltd.

440.0

Cold Lake

In situ oilsands commercial project Heavy oil plant expansion (Phases 11-13)

Imperial Oil Ltd.

300.0

Cold Lake Leming Lake

Heavy oil expansion (Phases 14-15) In situ development production

Koch Exploration Canada Ltd.

250.0

Bonnyville area

In situ oilsands

Mobil Oil Canada

100.0

Cold Lake

In situ oilsands plant

Imperial Oil Ltd.

40.0

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

29

0

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton Value

Company

Location

Description

Lindbergh Cold Lake Manatokan

In situ oilsands development In situ oilsands development In situ oilsands Conventional oil and gas development

($millions) 157.0 40.0 57.0

Murphy Oil Norcen Energy Resources Numac Energy Inc. Pan Canadian Pan Canadian Shell Canada Ltd.

190.0 30.0 1,800.0

Shell Canada Ltd. Shell Canada Ltd. Suncor Energy Suncor Energy Suncor Energy Suncor Energy Suncor Energy Syncrude Canada Ltd. Syncrude Canada Ltd.

1,000.0 120.0 360.0 320.0 2,200.0 22.0

Syncrude Canada Ltd. Texaco Sub total

Alberta Elk Point/Provost Edmonton (Scotford Refine) Fort McMurray area Peace River

Heavy oil development Development of bitumen upgrader

I

Oilsands mine and extraction plant In situ oilsands production/plant expansion

Fort McMurray Fort McMurray Fort McMurray

Steepbank mine project Fixed plant expansion oil sands expansion - Project Millennium

100.0 500.0

Primrose/Bumt Lake Primrose/Burnt Lake Fort McMurray

800.0 800.0 35.0

Fort McMurray Fort McMurray Frog Lake

In situ oilsands project In situ oilsands pilot plant Northmine Aurora Mine - Train I Aurora Mine - Train II In situ oilsands plant expansion

11,823.0

Forestry & Related Fibreboard plant Paper mill

Agra-Fibre Industries Alberta Pacific Forest Industries

20.0

Wanham

700.0

Athabasca

Alta Goldboard Ltd.

150.0

Thorhild

Daishowa-Marubeni InternationalLtd. Daishowa-Marubeni InternationalLtd.

900.0

Peace River

Strawboard plant Light weight coated paper mill

155.0

High Lever/La Crete area

OSB plant/sawmill

Grande Alberta Paper

900.0

Grande Prairie

Pulp and light weight coated paper mill

Slave Lake Pulp Corp (West Fraser

200.0

Slave Lake

Chemi thermo mechanical pulp mill expansion

65.0

High Prairie

Hardwood veneer mill

5.0 10.0 5.0

Lacombe Edmonton Edmonton

Tire recycling plant Manufacturing facility Plant modernization

10.0 25.0

Wetaskiwin Edmonton Fort Saskatchewan

Battery recycling plant Drug research, manufacturing and packing plant Bum dressings plant

685.0

Strathcona County

Gasoline additive plant

25.0

Strathcona County

MTBE plant debottlenecking

Timber) Tolko Industries Sub total

3,090.0

Manufacturing Alberta Recovery Technologies All-Weather Windows AltaSteel Ltd. Global Aener-cology Corp.

Miza Pharmaceuticals Inc.

4.5

Westaim Corp.

Sub total

0

59.5

Chemical/Petro-Chemical Alberta Bioclean Fuels Alberta Envirofuels

II

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 199730

30 0 0

e

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1997 - 2002, City of Edmonton Value

Company

*

0

Location

Description

($millions) 120.0

Edmonton

Copolymer plant expansion

0

AT Plastics Inc. Borden Chemical Inc.

14.0

Edmonton

Resin plan expansion

0

CE Alberta BioClean Ltd.

535.0

Strathcona County

MTBE/ETBE plant

Dow Chemical Canada Inc.

355.0

Fort Saskatchewan

Plant expansion

NOVA

395.0

Prentiss

Polyethylene plant

NOVA and Union Carbide

825.0

Joffre

Ethylene plant

Edmonton

Drug manufacturing facility

Fort Saskatchewan

Ethylene glycol plant

Prentiss

Polyethylene plant

Raylo Chemicals Shell Chem Cda/Mitsubishi Chem Corp Union Carbide Sub total

0

32.0 350.0 316.0 3,652.0

Other Industrial Inland Cement

16.0

Edmonton

Upgrade to plant

Newalta Corp.

5.0

Elk Point

Oilfield waste processing plant

TransAlta Utilities Corporation

12.0

Wabamun

Water treatment plant

Ceapro Developments Inc.

50.0

Edmonton

Agrium Inc.

70.0

Redwater/Kapuskasing

Oat Fractionation Facility Modifications to fertilizer plant/phosphate deposit

Agrium Inc.

3.5

Fort Saskatchewan

Metal refinery expansion

Fort St John to Chicago

Natural gas pipeline

Elk Point to Hardisty

Oil pipeline

40.0

Dunvegan to Judy Creek

IPL Energy Inc.

325.0

Fort McMurray/Hardisty

Natural gas pipeline Oil pipeline expansion

Nova Gas Transmission

500.0

Throughout Alberta

1997 pipeline system expansion

Novagas Clearinghouse

225.0

Alberta to BC

Pipeline expansion

LaGlace to Valleyview

Oil pipeline expansion

375.0

Scotford/Fort McMurray

Oil pipeline expansion

263.0

Various locations

Mainline improvements

Sub total

0

Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Ltd. Partnership

3,400.0

ELAN Energy/Gibson Petroleum

400.0

Federated Pipelines Ltd.

30.0

Peace Pipe Line Ltd. Shell Canada Ltd. TransCanada Pipelines Sub total

5,558.0

Ledcor Industries/FonorolaInc/CNR Telus Corp.

Sub total

120.0

Vanc/EdmToronto

Fibre optic cable network

60.0

Edmonton/Calgary

Fibre optic network

Edmonton

Outlets

0

0

156.5

Telecommunications

180.0

0

Commercial/Retail 15.0

0

Burger King Restaurants Cambridge Shopping Centers Ltd.

2.0

Heritage Mall, Edm

Renovations

Cambridge Shopping Centers Ltd. Camrose Development Ltd.

8.0

Southgate Mall, Edm

Renovations

250.0

Edmonton

Retail complex

4.0

Edmonton

Retail stores

Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

31

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 199 7 - 2002, City of Edmonton Value

Location

Description

($millions) 3.0 50.0 20.0 15.0 6.0

Grande Prairie Grande Prairie Edmonton Edmonton Sherwood Park

Retail stores Commerciaresidential development Retail store Belmont town centre Grocery store

Edmonton Edmonton Sherwood Park

Industrial park Retail centre Strathcona travel centre

22.0

Edmonton

Radisson Plaza Hotel

41.5 6.0 9.0 10.0

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

Francis Winspear Centre Twin arenas Greenwood Inn Galaxyland Hotel

14.0 102.5

Edmonton

Family recreation Centers

200.0 5.3 6.5 4.2

Leduc Lamont Edmonton Spirit River

International airport terminal modifications Addition Northeast community health centre Renovations

150.0 30.0 26.0

Edmonton Wainwright Drumheller

Edmonton Garrison upgrades/expansion CFB upgradesexpansion Hospital

12.0

Slave Lake

Health complex

Peace Regional Health Authority

27.0

Peace River

Health centre

Province of AB/City of Edmonton

70.0

Edmonton

Whitemud Drive extension

30.0 55.0 616.0

Edmonton Edmonton

Headquarters Holyrood Gardens residential development

Company Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. Gateway Regional Centre Home Depot Canada Inc. Lauring Group Real Canadian Superstore Remington Development Corp.

Springwood Developments Ltd. Trizen Equities Sub total Tourism/Recreation Dorsett Hotels &Resorts Intl of Hong Kong

Edmonton Concert Hall Foundation Kinsmen Club/City of Edmonton True North Properties Ltd. West Edmonton Mall YMCA/City of Edmonton Sub total Infrastructure Edmonton Regional Airport Authority Archer Memorial Hospital Capital Health Authority Central Peace Community Health Centre Canadian Dept. of National Defence Canadian Dept. of National Defence Drumheller Regional Health Care Centre

Keeweetinok Lakes Regional Health

Authority

Royal Canadian Mounted Police Westcorp Inc. Sub total Total Projects

18.0 10.0 9.5 410.5

I

IA

0 0

26,987.5

Prepared by: Economic Development Edmonton, October 1997

0

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1997

32

Appendix II. Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area N -

IV.p. of

F-I

City

Primary Highway

Town

F-I

REDWATER

38

geonI

Stu

Secondary Highway

&

BON ACCORD

Railway MORINVILLE

Hamlet

S

County / M.D./ I.D. Boundary

GI

ONS 22 T

t

L 1Lake

ftCounty DM

*is

w mn

PRUC GROVE

IGoPLAINk

'

SHER PARK

TO

601X

OOD

t

Parkland County

"

2-

cheavenBEAUMONT DEVON

8

Restur

ratcona

WLake

lake

:

2----

192

Data Division

C Data Acquislton Branch .t.

T..portsun endUtu.-'!

LEDUC

County of

Led c

Map compiled by:

Information Services Section

Planning & Development Departmeat

A

M

ehCi o Edmonto dicam any labil ty fr the ue ofthin map.

THECITYOF cmontonlMM m

ELOPMENT ND DEV00

....

w

OLF

10

25 kilometres

50