Edmonton (Alta.) - 1987-2000 - Socio-economic forecasts_1998-2003, City of Edmonton (1998-10)

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pared by the City Forecast Committee October 1998

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PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECAST

1998 - 2003 CITY OF EDMONTON

Prepared by City Forecast Committee October 1998

Copyright © 1998 by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department c/o 3 rd Floor, City Hall 1 Sir Winston Churchill Square Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7

The City of Edmonton provides this information in good faith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liability from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

-nPLANNNG 'IL~~EU~5EEWEEDEVELOPMENT

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City ofEdmonton

Jong Huang (Chairman)

K.L. Siu

Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

General Supervisor of Strategic Planning Drainage Services Branch Asset Management & Public Works Department

Dana Oikawa Senior Economic Advisor Edmonton Power

Christina lonescu Cost and Value Analyst Corporate Services Department

Rick Hersack Director of Research Economic Development Edmonton

Rod Keith Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee General Supervisor of Forecasting & Assessment Transportation and Streets Department

Staff Sgt. John Fairweather Planning & Evaluation Services Section Edmonton Police Service

Audra Jones Senior Transportation Engineer Transportation and Streets Department

Susan Ancel Senior Planning Engineer Aqualta

Nila Chowdhury Senior Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Emergency Response Department

Patrick Walters

Economist III Planning and Development Department For more information contact: Jong Huang or Patrick Walters

fax: (403) 496-6028 phone: (403) 496-6068; email:jong.huang@gov.edmonton.ab.ca fax: (403) 496-6028 phone: (403) 496-6070; ab.ca edmonton. email: patrickwalters@gov.

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Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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Q Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton 0

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................... ..................

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....................... 1 Economic Growth .....

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates ........................... 1 1 O il and Gas ..............................................................

2 Labour M arket ..........................................................

Construction Sector...................................................2 2 Population Change ....................................................

Inflation.....................................................................3 Social Forecast..........................................................3

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IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST......................3 S3Youth

Sector .........................................................

Business GEducation

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Government and the Public Sector ........................... 4 ............................... 429 Families and Individuals INTRODUCTION............................................................30

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* PART 1: ECONOMIC FORECAST............................. 5 STATES..........................................................

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CANADA .......................................................................

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ALBERTA.....................................................................8

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EDMONTON............................

SUNITED

Population...............................................................1 SLabour

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Real Estate Market.................................................. 16 ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS................................17 PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST..................................22 ..................... 22 CANADA ........................................ ...................... 23 ALBERTA............................

ALBERTA..............................23 ..... 25 ..................................

EDM ONTON ....

Demographic Changes............................................ 26 Employment and Unemployment...........................27

The Family..............................................................

Unemployment ..................

Education............................................

27 27 28

28 ................................................................

The Volunteer and Not-for-Profit Sector ................ 28 29 Poverty .......................................

Health Services.......................................................30 30 Sci al Services ..................................

Crime and Violence...............................................30 Recreation and Leisure...........................................31 Festivals and Major Events.....................................32 Gaming and Video Lottery Terminals (VLTs) ....... 32 SOCIAL FORECASTRISKS.......................................33 APPENDICES...............................................................34

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................................ ............................ 12 Output .....................................................................

12 13 M arket ........................................................

Inflation................................................................... 14 Construction............................................................ 15

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Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

Appendix I: Northern Alberta Major Projects.......34

Appendix II.Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area M ap .........................................................................

43 43

I2Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

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Interest Rates and Exchange Rates 0

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY *

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Economic Growth

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M The growth in Canada will dip to 3.2% in 1998 from 3.9% in 1997, as the world economy slows. Persistently high interest rates, stemming from instability in the Canadian dollar associated with a depressed world economy and uncertainty over Quebec's future in Canada will reduce growth to 2.5% in 1999.

Economic growth will increase to 3.0% annually from 2000 to 2003 as political stability returns to Canada and the world economy begins a slow recovery, g

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The growth in Alberta will average 3.7% in 1998 down from 7.2% in 1997. Lower oil and commodity prices, precipitated by a slowing of the world economy, will act as a drag on economic growth. However, growth will be stimulated by stronger gas prices, more stable provincial government expenditures, growing labour incomes and increased consumer spending and investment in the energy sectors.

The growth rate will dip to 3.0% in 1999.

Consumer and business confidence will be reduced by relatively high interest rates, depressed stock prices and weaker world demand for natural resources. The growth rate will increase slightly to 3.5% in 2000 and 2001 as work continues on several major heavy oil projects. By 2003, the economic growth rate will average 3.0% as some major construction projects are completed.

The total value of all goods and services produced in the Edmonton economy will grow by 3.7% in 1998 and 3.5% in 1999, down from 5.5% in 1997. Economic growth, over the forecast period, will be propelled by investment activity in northern Alberta.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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The prime rate will average 6.5% in 1998 up from 5.0% in 1997. The continuation of political uncertainty over Quebec's future in Canada and the persistent weakness in resource prices will cause the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates relatively high in order to defend the dollar in 1999. The prime lending rate will average 6.5% in 1999. With the return of political stability to Canada and the resumption of economic growth in the rest of the world in 2000, downward pressure on the dollar will subside. Consequently, the prime rate will average 6.0% in 2000 and remain at that level for the rest of the forecast period.

m The Canadian dollar averaged US$0.72 in 1997 down from US$0.73 in 1996. The dollar has since fallen and will average US$0.67 in 1998, as international commodity markets remain weak. The political uncertainty in 1999 over Quebec's future in Canada and the stagnation in the world economies will continue exert pressure on the Canadian dollar, resulting in a weaker dollar at US$0.66 for the year. With political stability restored and economic growth resuming in the rest of the world by 2000, the currency will gain strength and recover to average US$0.68 in 2000 and US$0.72 by 2003.

Oil and Gas M With world oil prices falling to twelve-year lows in mid-June, OPEC and key non-OPEC producers implemented a second round of production cuts -- bringing announced reductions up to 3.1 million barrels per day. As a result, markets stabilised somewhat, with the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moving in the U.S.$13 to $15 range since July.

Over the near term, the return to a more normal

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cio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

heating season is expected to firm prices this winter, with WTI averaging around U.S.$15 per barrel in 1998 and US$15.25 in 1999.

Beyond that, the forecast anticipates the Asian demand for crude oil to recover slightly in 2000, returning to more normal rates of growth in subsequent years. Assuming that producers adhere to recent production targets over the next two years, WTI prices are expected to recover to around U.S.$16.00 per barrel in 2000, keeping pace with inflation thereafter.

S The expansion of export pipeline capacity later this year is expected to reduce gas-on-gas competition within the province and re-link Canadian natural gas prices to the higher prices available in U.S. markets. This expectation has dominated recent market fluctuations, with the Alberta border price rising from around $1.50 per GJ at the beginning of the year to an average of $1.90 since April. With the completion of the pipelines in November and a return to a more normal heating season this winter, gas prices are expected to rise to well above $2.00 for the remainder of 1998. Given the anticipated addition of the Alliance pipeline in 2000, the forecast calls for these higher prices to be sustained throughout the forecast period, with the Alberta border price averaging around $2.25 per GJ in 1999 and $2.50 per GJ over the 2000 to 2003 period,

government-supported service sector will have below-average growth over the forecast period.

Construction Sector B

The investment in petro-chemicals and energy projects will have a significant impact on the construction sector in Alberta and the Edmonton region. Increased employment and net-migration will boost the demand for housing in the Edmonton region. Housing starts are expected to range between 4,700 and starts are expected to range between 4,700 and 5,200 units per year in the region and 2,800 to 3,200 units in the City over the forecast period.

3,200 units in the City over the forecast period.

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Office space vacancy rates will decline gradually over the forecast period as the economic activity and employment opportunities continue to improve, resulting in higher positive net office absorption rates.

The apartment vacancy rate will decline in the early phase of the forecast as net migration to the region remains strong. Further into the forecast, the apartment vacancy rate will trend upwards as net migration moderates and new apartment units are placed onto the market.

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Population Change m

Labour Market m

The Edmonton labour market is expected to remain strong in response to investment in northern Alberta. Total employment in the region will increase at a rate of 6,600 per year from 482,000 in 1998 to 515,000 in 2003. The unemployment rate will drop from 6.9% in 1997 to 6.0% in 1998 and fluctuate around that rate for the rest of the forecast period.

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The goods-producing industries will experience above-average employment growth whereas the

The population growth will be modest. Net migration for the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) (See Appendix II for Edmonton CMA boundaries) is expected to

range between 6,300 to 9,000 persons per year

over the forecast period. The City will receive about two-thirds of the region's net migration.

Edmonton's population is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.3% per year from 636,100 in 1998 to 679,700 in 2003. The population in the Edmonton CMA will rise from 892,300 in 1998 to 955,900 in 2003. [

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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The population will continue to age. Those under 45 years will account for 65.4% of the total population in 2003, down from 69.6% in

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[ESocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

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Family Employment Tax Credit will result in a decrease in the depth and extent of poverty for some of the working poor with children. These developments may also have some positive impacts on stresses on families, health status, and reduce pressures on some social seirvices.

However, low income will remain a significant issue for a large segment of Edmontonians.

The number of high school graduates is

1996. The population in the 65+ age group is projected to rise to 12.2% in 2003 from 11.0% in 1996.

Inflation o

The inflation rate will range between 2.0% to 2.5% over the forecast period as the economy continues to experience excess capacity.

increasing and a slightly greater proportion than usual may be enrolling in post-secondary education programs because of newly announced Federal Government initiatives.

More of these students are seeking technical training that is closely tied to employment opportunities.

Social Forecast *

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0 mA modest but strategic reinvestment in social programs by the Federal and Provincial governments will continue as the government budget deficits are eliminated, cumulative debt is reduced, and budget surpluses become a reality. After a decrease of $407 million between 1995/96 and 1997/98 in health, social services and education funds from the Canada

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for new and new types of recreational facilities

receive an estimated additional $60 million in 1998/99 and another $62 million in 1999/2000

continues, e.g., skateboard parks, indoor soccer facilities, etc.

from this funding frommechanism. mechanism. this funding

Over the next few years, Edmonton will host several international sporting competitions, and possibly several world championships. The city will realise many benefits because of these events.

A survey conducted in August 1998 found that Edmonton shelter accommodation agencies

were already operating at an average occupancy rate of 99%, and were having to turn many people away. This crowding problem is likely to become worse once cold weather sets in, and would be exacerbated by any major economic downturn.

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Edmontonians are saying that they have less discretionary time for recreation and leisure pursuits. At the same time, however, demand

Health and Social Transfer, Alberta will

A study by the Edmonton Social Planning Council showed that social conditions in Edmonton have improved in some ways but that overall conditions deteriorated between and 1997.

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The growth of the 75+ age group (30%) over

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST Business Sector 9

Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business

community is expected to benefit from:

the forecast period will see increased demand for health services and supportive housing; social isolation may become an issue.

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low inflation,

@ The improved economy, increasing number of jobs, increased Child Tax Benefit and Alberta

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Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

0Prepared

by: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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USocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton *

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a modest recovery in housing construction,

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modest employment and income growth,

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a large supply of relatively low cost downtown office space, diceo swace,* nt w n of modest population growth, and

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increased spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta,

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increased spending by low-income families with children aided by increases in Federal and Provincial benefit programs.

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an uncertain economic environment, ovr te net yarpopulation " hiherinteestrats higher interest rates over the next year,

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changed spending patterns as consumers rebuild their depleted savings, and

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a shrinking market for first time home buyers as well as the move-up home market.

Government and the Public Sector S Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit government and public sector will benefit from:

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rising child welfare case loads, h igher interest rates, higher interest rates, homelessness, an increase in population, with an increasing proportion of seniors and in-migration of trades and technical workers, trades and technical workers, a health care system under some stress due to increased demand coming from population growth, and growth, and families that are placed under greater stress, due to high youth unemployment and cutbacks in services to seniors.

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Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: *

greater employment opportunities,

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some moderation in the depth of poverty for the working poor with children.

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providing more care for aged relatives,

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low inflation, and

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an increasing proportion of youth (15-24)

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improved gas prices.

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potential for more space shortages in high schools and technical schools (e.g., NAIT),

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However, Edmontonians must also deal with:

Simproved prices gas

SHowever, over the same period, the public However, c over wthe same with: sector must deal revenue shortfalls, Smunicipal Smunicipal shortfalls revenue * continued fiscal restraint at the Provincial and Federal Government levels,

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F Families and Individuals

for the economic outlook the improved themprovined io loyhen teica province and the increase in employment opportunities,

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becoming increasingly expensive to maintain given the projected municipal maintain given the projected municipal revenue shortfall,

However, during the same period, Edmonton businesses are likely to face: *

excess supply in the downtown nonresidential markets, an ageing municipal infrastructure that is

not in the labour force,

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a health care system weakened by deep funding cuts, and *

greater stress and fewer supports for families. famnilies.

decline of the percentage of elementary school aged people in the total population,

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Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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aSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton, 0J

prices on world financial markets. These events will combine to reduce consumer and business confidence and the level of economic activity in 1998 and 1999.

INTRODUCTION T m This report provides a forecast of major economic and social indicators for the years 1998 to 2003. The forecast is used as a reference for the preparation of the 1999-2003 Capital Priorities Plan and the 1999 Operating Budget. Civic departments could use this document for preparing departmental business plans or strategic plans. In addition, other public agencies, citizens, and businesses could use the forecast for planning purposes. m

The forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will grow at 3.2% in 1998 and slow to 2.4% in 1999. It will rebound to 3.0% in 2000, as the United States enters a presidential election.

With the end of the election, the U.S. economic growth is expected to trend downwards to its long-term growth rate of 2.0% by 2003.

CANADA CANADA

The City Forecast Committee undertakes monitoring and forecasting economic and social activities throughout the year. The forecast report is prepared semi-annually, one

The Canadianeconomy is expected to grow at 3.2% in 1998, 2.5% in 1999 and 3.0% annually from 2000 to 2003.

inthe spring and the other in the fall.

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During this period, the labour market experienced healthy employment and wage

PART 1: ECONOMIC

gains. The combination of employment and wage gains and relatively low interest rates

FORECAST

boosted consumer and business spending on interest-sensitive items such as cars, industrial plant and equipment. This created a boom for imported goods and contributed to a severe deterioration in Canada's international current account.

UNITED STATES The U.S. economy will grow at 3.2% in 1998, slow to 2.4% in 1999 and 2.0% by 2003. m

After an extended period of expansion, the U.S. economy showed considerable strength as it grew by 3.8% in 1997. Despite the unemployment rate hovering below 5.0%, inflation remains modest.

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The continued expansion of the U.S. economy collapse isthreatened byisthe Asian the Asian of bythe collapse of thethreatened economies, the slowing of the South American economies, the implosion of the Russian economy and the significant deflation of stock

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The Canadian economy grew by 3.5% in 1997.

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The forecast assumes that the Canadian economic growth will average 3.2% in 1998 in response to the slower growth in the U.S., Asia, and emerging economies and higher domestic interest rates. Consumer and business confidence would be reduced as these groups adjust to relatively high interest rates, depressed stock prices, a weaker world demand for commodities and reduced profit margins.

Modest employment and wage increase will Modest employment and wage increase will support consumer spending and housing activity in the domestic economy. Consumer

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1gSocio-Economic

Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

spending will grow at a reduced rate but will not contract.

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The forecast assumes that the Quebec elections in November 1998 will result in short-term political instability in Canada and cause international money markets to place a higher premium on investing here. In addition, it assumes that the world economies will begin their economic recovery around 2000. These events will cause investors to continue to seek safe haven in the US treasury markets and thus maintain interest at relatively high ~The levels iteret 199.Highshot-tem inrates 198 nd in 1998 and 1999. High short-term interest rates and reduced wealth, from lower stock prices, will reduce consumer and business confidence. Thus, the economic growth will fall to 2.5% in 1999.

S The forecast assumes that political stability in Canada will be restored and economic growth in the world economy will begin a slow recovery by 2000. With the return of political stability, investor confidence in the Canadian economy will be partially restored and the run on the Canadian dollar will moderate. With interest rates at lower levels again, businesses and consumers will restructure their debts at reduced rates. This will lower interest costs and increase personal disposable incomes. As a result, sales of interest sensitive items such as cars and homes would benefit. In addition, will be boosted by increased domestic demand will be boosted by increased domestic demand

government spending, as governments that

have controlled their finances, would re-invest in the economy. Thus, Canadian economic growth is expected to average 3.0% annually for the rest of the forecast period. Over the forecast period, the Canadian economy will grow at a faster rate than the U.S. economy because of the Canadian economy's greater reserve of unused capacity.

Economic Growth mu.s.

IMCanada

3.5 3 2

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0 95

96

97

98

99

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2

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Source: Statstcs Canada, City Forecast Committee

The prime lending rate will average 6.5% 6.5% in 1998, up from 5.0% in 1997. The sharp increase in the prime lending rate resulted from the Bank of Canada's fight against inflation in the early part of 1998. As the Canadian dollar came under attack in international markets in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 1998, the Bank of Canada's emphasis shifted from fighting inflation to defending the dollar. In both instances, the Bank of Canada increased its bank rate. Consequently, the prime lending rate rose from 4.75% in September 1997 to 7.5% in September 1998. However as the economy weakened in the 3 rd quarter of 1998, the Bank of Canada's strategy shifted to stimulating economic growth by lowering its bank rate. As a result, the prime lending rate declined from 7.5% in September 1998 to 7.0% in October 1998.

The combination of political uncertainty over

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Quebec's future in Canada, depressed commodity prices and the instability on world financial markets will encourage the flight of capital to the U.S. treasury market. These developments will cause the Bank of Canada to maintain short-term interest rates at a relatively high level to defend the dollar in 1998 and 1999. The prime lending rate will therefore average 6.5% in 1999, despite a relatively weak

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economy. With the return of political stability, the prime rate is expected to decline to 6.0% in

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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ZoSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

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2000 and remain at that level for the rest of the

Commodity Prices & Canadian Dollar

forecast period.

'30..0730

Prime Lending Rate

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0 0.72

12-

-0.M2 .0.715

120115-

.0.

710 -0.705

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110.

8

0.700

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5 -

B

-980 08

96 Jul96 Ocd96 .Iar97 AO-97 597 O 97 J."S98 A -9

an

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Raw Mattal Price ndhe

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.Exchange Rate (U.S.S/Can)

Source: Statdrsc Canada

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0 95

96

97

98

99

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2

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Source; Bank of Canada. City Forecast Committe

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The Canadian dollar averaged US$0.72 in 1997, down from US$0.73 in 1996 and 1995.

The Canadian dollar came under relentless attack on international currency markets in 1998. This arose from two events: the Asian economic crisis and the sharp decline in world commodity prices. The Asian economic crisis panicked foreign investors into seeking safe haven status in the U.S. Treasury market.

Investors sold the Canadian dollar in preference to the U.S. dollar. The collapse of the Asian economies resulted in a significant reduction in their demand for imports. This created an excess supply of commodities on world markets and thus forced commodity prices downward. Lower commodity prices resulted in a worsening of the Canadian current account balance. The current account shifted from a $1.6 billion surplus in the third quarter of 1996 to a $3.9 billion deficit by the first quarter of 1998 as the strong economic growth in 1997

lead to increased spending on imports by the

The dollar will average US$0.67 in 1998 as commodity prices remain soft on international markets and foreign capital flee Canada in response to political uncertainty over Quebec's future in Canada. Continuing crisis in

international markets will cause the exchange rate to fall to US$0.66 in 1999. With political stability restored and economic growth resumed in the world economy in 2000, the currency will strengthen and recover to average US$0.68 in 2000 and US$0.72 by 2003.

Canadian Dollar 0.74 0.73

-0.72 S2o0.71 0.70

0.69

4 .

0.68

0.67 0.66 0.65 95 96 97 98 99

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Source: Bank of Canada, City Forecast Committee

consumer and business sectors.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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IUSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton government expenditures, growing labour incomes and increased consumer spending and investment in the energy sectors.

ALBERTA Alberta will grow above the national average. The economy will grow at 3.7% in 1998, 3.0% in 1999, 3.5% annually from 2000 to 2001, 3.2% in 2002 and3.0% in2003.

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Economic Growth Alberta & Edmontonn

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The provincial economy grew at an unsustainable rate of 7.2% in 1997, up from 2.5% in 1996. The economy gathered momentum in 1997 as growth fostered growth.

Employment increases created labour shortages in several sectors resulting in upward pressure on wage rates. The combination of increased employment and higher wage settlements resulted in improved labour incomes. Growing labour incomes and relatively low interest rates contributed to improved consumer confidence, which stimulated retail and housing sales and increases in business generated further spending further rated g aind and spending. This created further growth attracted more migrants to Alberta.

The economic expansion will also be led by consumer and business spending. The goodsproducing sectors and the private serviceproducing sectors will experience above governmentthewill while growth average supported service sector grow below the supported sector will service grow below the provincial average. The forecast assumes that the worst of the provincial cuts are over. As a

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A lberta n

MEdmonton

2 0 -2 95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

3

Source:Statistics Canada,City Forecast Committee

By 2000, some construction projects will be completed or nearing completion and thus, completed or nearing completion and thus, lower interest rates and the concomitant increase in consumption will slightly offset the reduction in non-residential construction. As a result, the economy will grow at 3.5% in 20002001, 3.2% in 2002 and 3.0% in 2003. Alberta will grow above the national average for the entire forecast period, despite lower oil prices a

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With world oil prices falling to twelve-year lows in mid-June, OPEC and key non-OPEC producers announced a second round of production cuts -- bringing targetted reductions

result, government restraint will not retard economic growth.

to 3.1 million barrels per day. As a result,

The economic growth will average 3.7% in

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to the

1998 as construction continues on several major resource projects, and consumer spending strengthens in response to improved job prospects and growing labour incomes. By 1999, the growth rate will drop to 3.0%. Lower oil and commodity prices, precipitated by a slowing of the world economy, along with high interest rates will act as a drag on economic growth. However, growth will be stimulated by stronger gas prices, more stable provincial

US$14 to $16 range in recent weeks. Over the near term, the return to a more normal heating season should maintain prices this winter, with WTI averaging around US$15 per barrel for 1998 and US$15.25 in 1999. Beyond that, continued weakness in the global demand for oil in 1999 is expected to give way to more normal rates of growth in subsequent years.

Assuming that producers are largely successful in keeping production in line with demand,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

markets stabilised somewhat, with the price for

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I aSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton WTI prices are expected to recover to around US$16.00 per barrel in 2000, keeping pace with inflation thereafter.

Alberta Natural Gas Price

G.

2.5 2-

World Oil Prices

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1 1.5

(US$1Barrel)

25-

0.5

20 '

Jg0

0

12615

0610

95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

3

Source: Alberta Enegryl City Forecast Committee

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. .1 1 115.

.

0 95

*

0 * * * 0

a

96

1 0 97 98 99 source: city Forecast Committee

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Alberta Economic Development estimates the total value of major projects, worth $2 million

The expansion of export pipeline capacity later this year is expected to reduce gas-on-gas competition within the province and link

or more, that are planned, underway, or have been recently completed to be $44.5 billion, as at March 1998, up from $37.7 billion in October 1997. The following are some major resource-related projects that are proposed or

Canadian natural gas prices once again to the

under construction (See Appendix I for the

higher prices available in U.S. markets. This expectation has dominated recent market fluctuations, with prices at the Alberta Energy Company storage facility rising from around $1.50 per GJ at the beginning of the year to an average of $1.90 since April. With the completion of the pipeline expansions in November and a return to a more normal heating season this winter, gas prices are expected to rise well above $2.00 for the remainder of 1998. Given the anticipated addition of the Alliance pipeline in 2000, the forecast calls for these higher prices to be sustained throughout the forecast period, with the Alberta border price rising to $2.25 per GJ in 1999 and $2.50 over the 2000 to 2003 period.

complete list of major projects for Northern Alberta). These projects will have a significant impact on economic activity in Alberta and the Edmonton region:

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

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Gulf Canada Resources plans to spend $1.1 billion to develop an in-situ bitumen project at Surmont. Construction will last from 1999 to 2005.

Shell Canada plans to spend $375 million to build a 500 km pipeline. Construction could begin in 2000. As well, Shell Canada plans to spend $1 billion on the development of a mine and extraction plant in the Fort McMurray area. Construction will commence in 1998 and finish in 2002.

Shell plans to spend another $1.8 billion to build an upgrader at its oil refinery at Scotford. Construction is expected to begin in 1999. The Scotford project should create 2,000 jobs during construction and 200 jobs during operation.

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton SSuncor plans to spend $2.0 billion to almost

2001 and 2003. The forecast assumes that the Alberta unemployment rate will remain below the Canadian rate for the entire forecast period.

triple heavy oil production at its Fort McMurray area plant by 2002. It should create 5,000 to 6,000 direct and indirect jobs over the expansion period. Suncor also plans to spend $320 million to expand its Fort McMurray refinery. Construction should last from 1997 to 1999. Suncor will also begin work on its new Steepbank mine.

Net Migration Alberta 40 35, 30

25 20

is - 10.5,

* Syncrude expects to spend $6.1 billion between 1996 and 2007 on oil sands development at Fort McMurray.

Canadian Natural Resources plans to spend

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aturl ResurcesplanStousend: * Candian

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$800 million on an in-situ bitumen project at Beartrap and Charlotte Lakes.

Construction will happen between 1997 and 2002.

Dow Chemical Canada plans to spend $328 million to expand its ethylene and polyethylene plants at Fort Saskatchewan.

Construction will last from 1997 to 1999.

Nova and Union Carbide plan to invest $825 million to expand the existing ethylene production complex at Joffre. In addition, Union Carbide plans to build a $270 million polyethylene plant at Prentiss (near Joffre) over the next four years. These two projects are expected to create 900 construction jobs and 230 permanent jobs.

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last until 2000.

The net migration to Alberta from other

provinces and countries was estimated at 38,000 persons annually in 1997, up from 18,000 in 1996. Net migration should fall to 35,000 annually between 1998 and 2000. As the pace of economic activity slackens, net migration will fall to 25,000 annually between

2 1 97 98 99 0 Statistics canada, city Forecast Committee Commitee

tasics Canada

3

City Forcast

EDMONTON

0

The Edmonton economy will benefit from strong inAlberta. non-residentialconstruction activity in growth northern northernAlberta. m

0

Economic Development Edmonton's data on proposed and planned Northern Alberta Major Projects shows planned spending at $42 billion, up from $39 billion in April 1998. The listed projects represents roughly 84% of the value of all major projects planned for the province of Alberta. If this investment occurs, the Edmonton region should enjoy a healthy economic growth over the forecast period.

Nova plans to spend $400 million on another ethylene derivatives plant at Joffre.

Work is expected to commence in 1998 and

96

z

In addition to the investment projects in the energy and forestry sectors, as mentioned in the preceding section, the following construction

projects will have significant impact on the

Edmonton economy over the next five years: * *

The City of Edmonton is spending $300 million to upgrade its sewer system.

TransAlta Enterprises will spend $73 million to build a garbage composter plant at Clover Bar over the next three years. This

10 Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

10

0 DSocio-Economic

0 Sand

project will generate 400 construction jobs 50 permanent jobs.

0 The consolidation of all scheduled passenger flights at the Edmonton International Airport and construction of the

expected to decline relative to the rest of Canada as labour market conditions improve in the province. The net migration to Edmonton will increase to 5,700 in 1999 and 2000, as the construction on the Scotford refinery proceeds.

terminal is expected to increase traffic from.

1.9 million passengers to about 2.7 million at the airport. The construction of the airport will cost $170 million to $250 million over

in 2000, of the the completion With will of refinery Edmonton to the City net migration net migration to the City of Edmonton will decline as job opportunities are reduced. The net Edmonton will will net migration migration to to the the City City of of Edmonton total 4,100 annually between 2001 and the end of the forecast period. d rio he et The net migration to the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) was estimated at 9,500 persons in 1997, dramatically up from 9,500 persons in 1997, dramatically up from 500 in 1996. Net migration will drop slightly to 8,800 in 1998 and rebound to 9,000 in 1999

International Airport and construction of the

* 0*~

Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of EdmontonI

~~

*.

the next five years.

SCamrose Development Ltd. is building a $250 million retail complex on a 300 acre site at 23 Avenue and Calgary Trail, starting site at 23 Avenue and Calgary Trail, starting in 1997. About 3,500 construction jobs will

0

*

be created over the next five years.

and 2000. With the decline in employment opportunities, net migration will fall to 6,300 annually from 2001 to 2003. (See Appendix II

* Christenson Developments plans to spend $40 million on the construction of a townhouse complex in the downtown.

*

*

Construction will last from 1998 to 2001.

for the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

Cambridge Shopping Centres Ltd. is spending $13 million to improve Southgate Mall.

boundaries).

Edmonton Net Migration

CAE Aviation was awarded a $135 million contract by the Canadian Department of National Defence for avionics updates of C130 Hercules aircraft.

.G

MO0

3 -6

* The City of Edmonton will spend

approximately $50 million in the next seven years to upgrade the Gold Bar wastewater plant to the tertiary treatment level.

0

Population

0

Edmonton's population is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.3% peryearfrom an estimate of 636,100 in 1998 to 679,700 in 2003.

S *

a

The net migration to the City of Edmonton will total 5,300 persons in 1998, down from 5,700 in 1997. Over the forecast period, the regional and provincial unemployment rates are

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

City and C.M.A.

9 6 3

ICMacity

-s! II

-9

-12

95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

-3

Source: Statistics Canada. City Forecast Committee

a

Edmonton's population declined from 627,000 in 1993 to 616,300 in 1996 as negative net migration exceeded positive natural increase.

However, the expected positive net migration will result in population growth over the next five years. Edmonton's population will increase by 1.3% per year from 616,300 in 1996 to 636,100 in 1998 and 679,700 in 2003.

11

I

Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of EdmontonI

Socio-Economic

o

The population in the Edmonton CMA will also rise by 1.4% a year from 862,600 in 1996 to 892,300 in 1998 and 955,900 in 2003.

25

Population Distribution by Age City of Edmonton

20-

E1996 20003

__15.

Edmonton Population

10

City and C.M.A. 000

5

1000 M rU

0 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

80

Source: Statistics Canada. City Forecast Committee

600

S400 I-

200 93 95

96 97 98

99

0

1

Output

iy

00 2

3

Source: Staistics Canada, City Forecast Committee

The economy of the Edmonton CMA will grow at 3.7% in 1998, 3.5% in 1999, 3.7% in 2000 and

3.0% in 2003. m

The average age of the City's population will continue to climb as the "baby boomers" (those born between 1947 and 1967) age. Those in the under 45 age group are expected to account for 65.4% of the population by 2003, down from 69.6% in 1996. The changing age composition will have important implications for the real estate market, since the percentage of the population in the 25-34 age group (first time home buyers) and the 35-44 age group (move up market) are expected to fall. The total number of individuals in the 25-44 age groups are expected to decline in both absolute and relative terms. The share of the population

g

m

Alberta and Edmonton economies are heavily dependent on the export of commodities. As a result, falling commodity prices stemming from weak demand will result in declining revenues for the provincial government and Alberta exporters. This will have direct implications for business cash flows and investment.

The Edmonton economy grew by 5.5% in 1997 up from -0.5% in 1996 as it benefited from strong investment in northern Alberta. The forecast assumes that the Edmonton region will continue to function as the refining and service

aged 15-24 (labour market entrants) is expected

centre for the oil and gas industry in Alberta.

to be 15.5% by 2003, up from 14.2% in 1996.

The population share in the 0-14 age group (elementary and junior high schools) is expected to decline from 20.6% in 1996 to 18.6% by 2003. Finally, the percentage of individuals in the 65+ age group (retirees) is projected to grow to 12.2% in 2003 from 11.0% in 1996.

For example, as of 1997, the Edmonton region had over 93% of Alberta's refining capacity.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The economic growth in Edmonton will moderate in 1998 from the 1997 pace as lower oil prices and higher interest rates negatively affect some marginal oil projects. However, this will be counterbalanced by investment in natural gas, heavy oil and petro-chemicals.

Economic growth will be further stimulated by the reversal of the 5% wage roll back on

0

0

12

0 0

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton Alberta's public sector salaries. Economic growth will continue for the rest of the forecast period as construction continues on several projects in northern Alberta. Total employment will increase, resulting in an increase in the region's total wage bill. This will support spending in different sectors of the economy such as the housing and retail trade.

m

The total value of all goods and services in the Edmonton CMA economy will grow by 3.7% in 1998, 3.5% in 1999 and 3.7% in 2000, down from 5.5% in 1997. Economic growth in the region will be slightly higher than the provincial average of 3.0% in 1999 and 3.5% in 2000 as the region benefits from construction of the Scotford refinery, which is situated within its borders. With the end of construction in Scotford, the region is expected to grow at the same rate as the province,

administration (2.1%), other primary (17.7%), and community, business and personal services (18.8%) will grow below the overall growth rate and their share of total output should decline.

Labour Market The unemployment rate will average 6.0% in 1998, andaround5.9% between 1999 and 2003.

E

(17.6%). Industry divisions experiencing negative growth were public administration (-

Economic growth should fall to 3.5% in 2001 and 3.0% in 2003.

18.4%), construction (-15.6%), and finance, insurance and real estate (-15.4%). The employment in the public administration division fell from 38,000 in 1991 to 31,000 in This was caused mainly by a significant drop (9,400 persons) in provincial and local administration employment.

Share of Total Output -Edmonton C.M.A. 25 20.

E

o1997.

1997 2003 ]

10 .

0.

Ag OP Ma Co

Tn Td

Fi

Edmonton CMA's economic recovery was broadly based as six out of the nine industry divisions experienced positive employment growth. The total employment grew by 11.5% between 1991 and 1997. The fastest growing industry divisions were other primary (100%), agriculture (100%), manufacturing (35.1%) and community, business and personal services

Se

Pa

Source: Statistics Canada. city Forecast Committee

Edmonton in aThe total output will region will Edmonton region the output in the SThe total increase by 23.3% between 1997 and 2003.

Transportation (32%), finance, insurance and real estate (31.9%) and manufacturing (27.6%) will produce above average growth rates. As a result, these industry divisions will experience an increase in their share of total output over the forecast period. In contrast, public

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The total employment in the Edmonton CMA was estimated at 476,000 persons in 1997, an increase of 22,000 over the 1996 estimate.

Employment growth for the first seven months of 1998 was 9,300 persons, down from 19,100 for the same 1997 period. The slowing of employment growth in the region underscores the significance of the resource sector to the region's economic health.

13

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton z

The employment growth in the region will track that in the province. The goods-producing industries will experience above-average growth rates whereas the government supported service sector will grow below

g

The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.0% in 1998, down from 6.9% in 1997 and

Employment Edmonton C.M.A.

520 so00

480

!average.

,80 o 460

4 420 420

95

9

96

97

9

98

928.5%

99

0

1

2

3

Source: Statistics Canada, City Forecast Committee

z

M

The forecast calls for employment to grow by 6,000 persons to 482,000 in 1998, as the region benefits from investment in northern Alberta.

By 1999, total employment will average 490,000 persons and this will increase to 515,000 persons by 2003.

The forecast expects total employment in the Edmonton region to increase by 8.2% from 1997 to 2003. Agriculture (19.8%), manufacturing (19.1%), trade (17.2%) and construction (14.2%) will have above average growth rates. Consequently, these industry divisions will increase their share of total employment over the forecast period. The remaining industry divisions should grow below the regional average and should suffer a decline in their share of total employment.

Share of Total Employment Edmonton C.M.A. 40.5 _30.5-

in 1996. As job opportunities improve in the region, individuals who had given up looking for work will be attracted back to the labour market. As a result, the forecast expects the unemployment rate to fall slowly to 5.8% in 1999 and remain at that rate until 2000 before rising to 6.0% from 2001 and 2003.

Unemployment Rate Edmonton C.M.A

9

6-

0 0.

95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

3

Source: Statistics Canada, City Forecast Committee

Inflation

The inflation rate will rangebetween 1.2% and 01991

2.5% over the forecast.

M1997

02003

20.s 10.

0.5 .5 Ag OP Ma Co Tn Td Fi Se Pa Source: Statistics Canada. City Forecast Committe

M_ Edmonton's inflation rate was estimated at 1.8% in 1997, down from 2.2% in 1996. It averaged 0.77% for the first nine months of 1998 compared to 1.78% for the same period in 1997. This is a significant deviation from our April 1998 forecast of 2.0%. The lower

than forecasted inflation rate was caused by the

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

14

I

Soci-Economic Forecast,: 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton Edmonton region. Increased employment and net-migration will boost the demand for residential and non-residential space. The construction activity in the industrial sector will continue in 1998 as the inventory of industrial space remains relatively low. In addition, a significant amount of industrial space is obsolete and in need of upgrading.

The re-sale housing market moved to a greater degree of balance in 1997, as the sales/listing ratio reached 57.9% from 50% in 1996 and

unanticipated weakness in world commodity prices which translated into lower prices for consumer goods and services. It is expected that capacity pressures will partly negate the softness in commodity prices in 1999 and beyond. In addition, as retailers and wholesalers restock depleted inventories, the inflationary impact of the devalued Canadian dollar will be felt.

*

0 *

S

40.9% in 1995. The number of re-sale homes sold in 1997 increased by 12.5% to 13,016 units, as buyers took advantage of low interest rates and affordable house prices. Because of the greater degree of balance in the market, the

Inflation Rate Edmonton C.M.A.

--

0

2.5 2

*

t 1.s

*.average

residential price increased to $111,545 in 1997 from $109,042 in 1996.

0.5 0

95 96 97 98 99

0

1

2

3

Building Permits

Source: Statistics Canada, city Forecast committee

.Low High

City of Edmonton 750-

z

The inflation rate will average 1.2% in 1998, 2.0% in 1999 and 2.5% in 2000 and 2001 as the labour and other markets tighten. With the economy growing at a slower rate towards the end of the forecast period, the inflation rate will moderate to 2.0% annually in 2002 and 2003.

550 C

550

350 a 15 0 .

-so.

95

As a result, the region's inflation rate will

96

97

.

.

.

98

99

0

1

2

3

Source: Planning &Development City Forecast Committee

remain within the Bank of Canada's inflation

target range of 1%to 3%.

[ S Construction Construction The recovery in the construction sector will continue in 1998 andfor the rest of the forecast 0 0period period 0 i

0 *

0

The investment in petro-chemicals and energy projects will have a strong impact on the construction sector in Alberta and the

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

The building permit values increased to $547 million in 1997 from $407 million in 1996. The building permit values will range between $550 and 1999. As in 1998 $650 million and and the are completed projects construction and the growthed comic growth, projects region the economic slowerarecon achieves region astruction growth in the demand for building space will moderate. The building permits values will fall within the range of $500 to $600 million by 2000 and remain at that level for the rest of the forecast period.

15

I.Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City ofEdmonton 0 S

Real Estate Market

The Edmonton's housing starts totalled 3,015 units in 1997, up by 55.2% from 1996 but well below the 1993 level of 4,235 units. With an improvement in building permit activity, positive net migration and a stronger labour market, housing starts should increase to 3,200 units in 1998. As economic activity slows, net migration to the region will slow. As a result, the demand for housing accommodation will fall. Housing starts will decline to 3,000 units annually from 1999 to 2001 and drop to 2,800 units annually for 2002 and 2003.

The apartment vacancy rate will average 2.0% in 1998 andfall to 1.5% in 1999 and 2000 and then climb to 2.5% in 2003. The downtown office space vacancy rate will average 14% in 1998 andfall to 13% by 2003.

S The total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA was 4,962 units in 1997, up 1,324 units from 1996. The forecast expects housing starts to total 5,200 units in 1998 and 1999 and decrease to 4,900 units annually by 2000 and 2001. By 2002 and 2003, total housing starts will decrease to 4,700 units annually.

9

The apartment vacancy rate averaged 4.6% in October 1997, down from 7.6% in 1996 and 10.2% in 1995. The reduction in the vacancy rate is attributable to strong positive net migration and the conversion of apartments to condominiums.

g

Edmonton's apartment vacancy rate will average 2.0% in 1998 and fall to 1.5% annually from 1999 to 2000 as Edmonton experiences improved labour market conditions and positive net migration. With the reduced net migration to the region and construction of new apartments, the apartment vacancy rate will climb to 2.0% in 2001 and 2.5% in 2002 and

Housing Starts si2003.

Housing Strs City & C.M.A.

6000.

I,,.\I MM

m

6000

nmarket

0sooo 4000

S20001000 o 95

96 97 98 99 0 1 2 Source: CMHC, City Forecast Committee

3

In the non-residential market, construction activity was concentrated in the industrial sector, where the average vacancy rate was 5.3% in 1997 down from 6.5% in 1996. This activity was driven by strong demand for warehousing space by firms active in northern Alberta.

i

2003.

The vacancy rate in the downtown office declined to 14.8% in 1997 from 16.9% in 1996. This resulted from a positive change in the amount of office space absorbed, the first in six years. In addition, the Centennial Building and One Thornton Court were removed from the office space inventory.

0

The downtown office market will be affected by the conversion of current office space to other uses as owners attempt to add value to their properties. It is also expected that space will be released to the market as public and private sector leases expire. This will place upward pressure on the office space vacancy rate in the short run.

0

I

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

0

16

.

ISocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

The following are some of the other risks to the forecast.

Office Space Absorption City of Edmonton

300 .200

Downside risks to theforecast

S100

0 100.

S-200 0

-300N.

91

92

93

94

95

97

96

Source: Colliers Macaualay Nicolls

m

The forecast calls for the downtown vacancy rate to fall to 14.0% by December 1998 and then decline continuously to 13.0% by 2002 and 2003. Office space vacancy rates will decline over the forecast period as economic activity and employment opportunities continue to improve resulting in higher positive net absorption rates.

The downside risks to the forecast have increased significantly since the April 1998 forecast. The recession in most Asian economies has deepened, the Russian economy has imploded, economic activity in several South American countries is slowing, international capital markets have experienced major corrections, and short term interest rates in Canada are now higher than a year ago.

M An economic recession in the U.S. will result in a sharp reduction in the volume of Canadian exports, since the U.S. is Canada's major trading partner. If this occurs, the Canadian economy will follow the U.S. into recession. m

Vacancy Rate City of Edmonton IApartment

Office Space

18

is1 -121

95

96

97

98

99

0

1

2

delayed recovery in the global demand for oil could weaken oil prices further or keep them at current levels over a prolonged period. In either case, planned investment in the energy sector could be significantly curtailed and provincial government revenues reduced.

Under these circumstances, economic activity in Alberta and Edmonton could be much slower.

3

Source: CMHC, City Forecast Committee

ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS The resolution of issues relating to the Kyoto Agreement on Global Greenhouse Gas Reductions and the Year 2000 computer bug may impact the economic growth. The current evidence is not clear as to the direction and magnitude of these impacts.

As a result, the forecast is unable to provide precise estimates of these risks.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The forecast assumes that the worst of the public and private sector restructuring is over.

If these organisations continue to restructure, the forecast should be revised downwards.

A breakdown in producer discipline or a

@

The Canadian forecast assumes that interest rates will stay relatively stable over the forecast period. This assumption could be changed by the events: following events: the following * continued political uncertainty over the future of Quebec,

17

aso,

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton *

a much lower than forecast Canadian dollar, and

Any or a combination of these events will exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar and thus force the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates. Interest rates higher than those forecast will curtail economic activity and result in a lower growth rate. *

Alberta's personal saving rate has dropped by almost half since 1985. In addition, a prolonged slump of equity prices on the stock markets will cause individuals to feel poorer.

The combination of these events will result in consumers restraining their spending as they attempt to rebuild their savings or reduce their debts. The forecast will have to be revised downwards if a prolonged slump continue on equity markets.

0

growth and local employment will be higher than forecast.

If the anticipated oil sands and other resourcesrelated projects proceed earlier than expected, economic growth in Alberta and Edmonton over the next five years will be higher than the forecast.

M A much higher than forecast Canadian dollar 9

will allow the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates further than forecast.

0

0

Alberta Savings Rate 20

15-

5

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 Source: Alberta treasury

0 Upside risks to the forecast. s

The unexpected increases in provincial revenues may allow the Alberta government more fiscal room to reduce provincial taxes or increase spending, or a combination of both. If this scenario materialises, Alberta economic

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

18

0

IQSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton 0 Table 1

-

Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators

0 *

Indicator

*

World Oil Price (U.S. $1Barrel) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($1G.J) Economic Growth Rate (%) U.S.A. Canada Alberta

SPrime

Lending Rate (%) Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Can$) Net Migration (Alberta) (000)

S

0-

0

0

0

0 0 0

2002

2003

15.25 2.25

16.00 2.50

16.50 2.50

17.00 2.50

17.50 2.50

3.8 3.5 7.2

2.4 2.5 3.0

3.0 3.0 3.5

2.5 3.0 3.5

2.0 3.0 3.2

5.0 0.72 39.4

6.5 0.67 35.0

6.5 0.66 35.0

6.0 0.68 35.0

6.0 0.70 25.0

6.0 0.71 25.0

2.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 0.72 25.0

22.01 1.54

20.60 1.87

2.0 1.9 2.3

2.8 1.6 2.5

8.7 0.73 18.3

6.1 0.73 19.6

Edmonton (5.6) (11.0)

0.5 (3.3)

9.5 5.7

8.8 5.3

9.0 5.7

9.0 5.7

6.3 4.1

6.3 4.1

6.3 4.1

Population - C.M.A. (000) - City (000)

856 615

862 616

878 626

892 636

907 646

921 656

933 664

Economic Growth Rate (%) Employment (C.M.A.) Unemployment Rate (C.M.A.)(%)

2.7 453 8.9

(0.5) 454 8.5

5.5 476 6.9

3.7 482 6.0

3.5 490 5.8

3.5 503

956 680 3.0 515

Inflation Rate- CPI (C.M.A.) (%) Vacancy Rate (City) (%) Apartment (Oct)

2.0

2.2

1.8

1.2

2.0

3.7 497 5.8 2.5

944 672 3.2 509

6.0 2.5

6.0 2.0

6.0 2.0

Net Migration - C.M.A.(000) - City (000)

0

1999

15.00 1.90 III 3.2 3.2 3.7

18.40 1.25

*

*

1998

Forecast 2000 2001

U.S.A., Canada and Alberta

0 *

Actual 1995 1996 1997

10.2

7.6

4.6

2.0

1.5

1.5

2.0

16.3

16.9

14.8

14.0

13.5

13.5

13.5

2.5 13.0

2.5 13.0

1,893

1,935

3,015

3,200

3,000

3,000

3,000

2,800

2,800

Single Family - Multi-Family

1,130 763

1,421 514

1,945 1,070

1,900 1,300

1,900 1,100

1,900 1,100

1,900 1,100

1,900 900

1,900 900

C.M.A. - Total - Single Family

3,082 2,159

3,638 2,944

4,962 3,685

5,200 3,800

4,900 3,700

4,900 3,700

4,900 3,700

4,700 3,700

923

694

1,277

371

407

547

1,400 550 6501

1,200 550 650

1,200 500 600

1,200 500 600

1,000 500 600

4,700 3,700 1,000 500 600

Downtown Office (Dec) Housing Starts (Units) City - Total

- Multi-Family Building Permit Value - Low -(City) ($million) - High

Sources: 1. 1996-97 actual: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Inc., Canadian Petroleum Association, and Edmonton Planning and Development Dept.

2. 1998 - 2003 forecasts: City Forecast Committee, October 1998.

Notes:1. World oil prices are for West Texas intermediate crude at Chicago in U. S.dollars.

2. Natural gas prices are Alberta average market prices in Canadian dollars 3. The changes from the April 1998 forecast are bolded.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee,October 1998 0Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

19 19

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

Table 2 Population Forecast, 1998 - 2003: City of Edmonton 1-IV

1-T17

1MRS

EIEgE

ZUUU

ZUU1

ZUUZ

zUU3

0

actual 0-4

42,045

41,738

41,672

41,651

42,058

42,290

42,404

42,631

5-9

43,035

43,227

43,098

42,838

42,086

10-14

41,725

42,485

42,660

42,951

43,331

41,182 43,428

40,721 43,506

40,534 43,292

15-19

39,635

41,278

43,597

45,804

47,379

48,579

49,243

49,351

20-24

47,320

48,358

49,000

49,816

50,997

52,153

53,627

55,822

25-29

51,335

51,073

51,191

51,484

51,787

52,114

52,882

53,319

30-34

56,290

54,825

52,631

50,791

49,813

49,362

48,856

48,782

35-39

57,235

57,617

58,224

58,279

57,755

56,142

54,527

52,233

40-44

50,040

52,244

54,089

55,561

56,582

57,574

57,856

58,384

45-49

40,985

41,891

50-54

29,905

32,079

43,135 34,072

45,192 35,903

47,327 37,970

49,313 39,973

51,422 40,816

53,191 42,003

55-59

25,370

25,789

26,422

27,195

27,952

28,782

30,846

60-64

23,665

23,446

23,373

23,245

23,301

23,504

23,871

32,743 24,447

65-69

22,060

22,313

22,489

22,416

22,192

21,884

21,662

21,580

70-74

18,230

18,672

19,180

19,816

20,390

20,878

21,087

21,229

75-79

12,645

13,634

14,424

15,140

15,567

16,085

16,454

16,879

80-84

8,335

8,963

9,503

9,917

10,571

11,262

12,093

12,752

85+

6,450

6,845

7,333

7,990

8,716

9,341

9,940

10,526

Total

616,305

626,477

636,096

645,989

655,775

663,844

671,813

679,699

5,700 4,472

5,300 4,319

5,700 4,193

5,700 4,086

4,100 3,969

4,100 3,869

4,100 3,786

Net-Migration Natural Increase

0

Prepared by: Planning and Development Department, The City of Edmonton, April 1998 Source: 1996 Canada Census. City Forecast Committee for net-migration

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

20

0

0 lSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

Table 3 Population Forecast, 1998 - 2003: Edmonton CMA 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

actual

*

*

0-4

59,695

58,275

57,255

56,489

56,396

56,247

56,702

57,319

5-9

64,595

64,695

64,345

63,579

62,256

60,474

58,747

57,479

10-14

64,820

65,651

65,720

66,019

66,243

66,252

66,120

65,584

15-19

60,490

63,181

66,327

69,057

71,019

72,421

73,064

72,991

20-24

61,240

63,959

66,371

68,985

71,813

74,032

76,403

79,311

25-29

64,810

64,629

65,093

65,941

67,096

68,422

70,606

72,604

30-34

76,020

73,573

70,328

67,679

66,222

65,564

64,885

64,937

35-39

81,210

81,656

82,096

81,624

80,257

77,519

74,764

71,286

40-44

72,440

75,344

77,871

79,782

81,194

82,413

82,655

82,931

45-49

61,335

62,341

63,741

66,511

69,310

72,053

74,787

77,175

50-54

44,815

48,674

52,004

54,757

57,751

60,306

61,207

62,512

55-59

35,610

36,743

38,327

40,063

41,735

43,482

47,139

50,300

60-64

31,355

31,406

31,705

32,008

32,599

33,411

34,412

35,854

65-69

27,985

28,536

28,948

29,144

29,136

29,083

29,081

29,316

70-74

22,635

23,171

23,859

24,661

25,491

26,215

26,674

27,012

75-79 80-84

15,555

16,820

17,821

18,752

19,290

19,917

20,358

20,930

10,135

10,867

11,549

12,040

12,867

13,745

14,804

15,638

85+ Total

7,825 862,570

8,306 877,828

8,892 892,250

9,673 906,765

10,524 921,198

11,277 932,835

11,985 944,394

12,718 955,898

Net-Migration

9,500

8,800

9,000

9,000

6,300

6,300

6,300

Natural Increase

5,758

5,622

5,515

5,433

5,337

5,259

5,204

Prepared: Planning and Development Department, The City of Edmonton, April 1998 Source: 1996 Census Canada. City Forecast Committee for net-migration

0 *

Preparedby City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

21

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

21

I

aSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton Canada Health & Social Transfer

PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST 1,00

1,I

to Alberta gRe-investment Cash Transfer No" ~g Cah Transfer

900

CANADA

800

Modest but strategic re-investment in social programs will continue over the forecast period as andgovernments remain are controlledugt.WieSource: the deficits .omtetoblne

96197

98/99

97198

99100

Year

Services Source: Alberta Alberta Family and Social Services

committed to balanced budgets. While improvements will be seen, Canadians will not see a return to the level offunding and service provision of the early 1990s.

m

S Employment in Canada has risen by 1.9% this year, although much of the increase in September was in part-time employment. Fulltime employment is up 1.2% since December of 19971. Overall, however, the unemployment rate is unchanged at 8.3%.

More than half of the job growth in September went to youths between 15 and 20 years of age.

This is the third consecutive monthly increase.

Among adult females, employment is up 2.1% since the start of the year, but employment among adult men has increased by only 0.8% in the same period. and Health aThe CanadaSThe Transfer Social Transfer and Social Canada Health to the transfers financial (CHST) provides provinces for health, post-secondary education, and social services. Due to Federal restraint

Child Tax Benefit. Families on welfare will not benefit until they are off welfare, as the

program is also intended to encourage people

programs, CHST transfers to Alberta in 1997/98 have been reduced by an estimated $407 million from what the province received CHST 1997/98, in1995/96. Beyond payments CHST payments Beyond 1997/98, in 1995/96. to the province are expected to rise by an estimated $60 million in 1998/99 and by another $62 million in 1999/2000, as the Federal Government commits to invest half of the budgetary surpluses in services.

The federal-provincial arrangement to increase the Child Tax Benefit to low-income families with children indicates both a trend to improve working relationships with other levels of government as well as a commitment to reduce child poverty. The annual increase in the Child Tax Benefit will be $850 million per year nationally with another $850 million to be added over the next two years. However, how the additional $850 million will be allocated is unclear. Actual payments began in 1998. An estimate of the annual benefit going directly to Alberta low-income families with children is $85 million in 1998 and $170 million by 2000.

Families with incomes below $20,921 will receive an annual increase of up to $405 per year for the first child and $330 for each additional child. Families with incomes above $25,921 will not receive an increase in their

to seek work. Under the agreement, provinces will divert welfare savings into other programs o enetdifamilies. ee low-income InAbrati.a and services benefiting reinvested in low0 this hasa been ies InncAlberta ewoi income working families.

E

The Canada Millennium Scholarship project will begin in 2000, and will pay an average of $3,000 per year to 5,000 low and middle income post-secondary students in Edmonton.

ttp//www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/981009/d981009.htm

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

22

0

QSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton, m

0

m

0

0 0 *

The increase in the Child Care Expense deduction will translate into a sizeable saving for many middle-income families with children.

Where are Canadians spending their money? A study recently released by Statistics Canada 2 showed that in 1996, households put 41% of their expenditures towards services, as compared to 36% in 1986. The biggest growth areas were on communication services (cable TV, Internet and cellular phones) and in finance and real estate services (increased housing purchase costs and mutual and retirement funds). Average spending on goods was down by 13.9% between 1986 and 1996.

Canadians spent 10% less on dining out, and a third less on alcoholic beverages in licensed premises, but spent 19% more on amusement and recreation and 15% more attending live

Alberta unemployment rate had been below 6% since April 1997.

The Government of Alberta has just announced an immediate infusion of an additional $61.3

g

million to Regional Health Authorities 4 . This was done largely to address additional costs resulting from population growth in the last few months, and to cover key life-saving procedures provided for all Albertans through Edmonton and Calgary health facilities. The Capital Health Region, which includes Edmonton, will get an additional $22.8 million, of which $2 million will go to academic health centres. Calgary will get $26.7 million more.

Applied degree programs, which were introduced as demonstration projects in 1994, will become an ongoing part of Alberta's college and technical institutions program. The Government has invited public colleges and

g

performances. The amount spent on games of

technical institutions to get actively involved in

chance was up substantially, by 56% to $344 per household in 1996.

providing these programs. These study programs differ from traditional degree programs in that they include work experience activities, and employers are involved in the design, delivery and funding of the work experience portion of the studies. This initiative should have a direct, positive effect on employment, particularly for youth and young adults, although it will take some time for the effects of the new programs to be felt.

The 1998 Provincial Budget called for additional investment in education totalling $380 million over three years. This is an increase of about 13% over 1997. A further spending increase of about $60 million to support education in the public and separate schools will be offset by reductions in debenture interest and Ministry operations.

ALBERTA

S *

*

Human service policies, processes,and outcomes will continue to be influenced by redefinedfunding arrangements, regionalization, re-definition of the role of government, and increased accountability, As at thefederal level, modest but strategic reinvestment will occur.

mabout Figures just released by Statistics Canada3 Sindicated that employment in Alberta changed little in September after increasing by 14,000 in August. The unemployment rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 6.2%, however, because more people had entered the workforce in the province. Before this change, the

m

*

z

_increase

S

2Service Indicatorsfor

the second quarter of 1998

The Provincial government announced an in the Family and Community Support Services funding. Edmonton's share will be up

3

*http//www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/981009/d981009.htm Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

0

4

http://www.gov.ab.ca/pab/can/199810/6862.html

23

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton -

16.5% over 1997. However, even the expected increased allocation in 1999 will still be less than the allocation in 1993. n

FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SUPPORT SERVICES FUNDING

and a boost of $4 million to the previously-announced funding for early intervention programs for children.

The province is decreasing operating subsidies

to child care facilities and is countering this move with increases in child care subsidies to families. While the net amount of child care expenditures may be the same, this may cause some difficulties for child care facility

9

a 0 =7.

Eoperators.

6

ri

Supports for Independence (welfare) is budgeted to be reduced by 10.6% from 97/98 to 98/99. This may reflect decreases in caseload due to improved employment opportunities in the province. However, for the 8,000 who remain Edmonton families with children on Supports for Independence, no increases in benefits were announced.

g

Given the increased provincial Family Employment Tax Credit, federal Child Tax Benefit, provincial Health Plan for Children in Low-Income Families, federal Child Care Expense deduction, and provincial child care subsidy increase for low-income parents, the working poor with children will gain significantly over the forecast period. Middleincome families will likely not gain, on average, as the federal child care expense deduction will be outweighed by the removal of the operating allowance provided to day care businesses, which had benefited all families

4

5 93

94

95

96

97

98

99

Year Source: Alberta Family andSocial Services.

S The Alberta Health Plan for Children in LowIncome Families, a reinvestment of savings from not passing on the Federal Child Tax Benefit to families on welfare, will provide prescription, dental, optical and ambulance coverage of approximately $12 million across the province in 1998 and $19 million in 1999.

Coverage will be provided to families with incomes below approximately $20,000 that are not already on a supplemental health plan through their work or government assistance.

The coverage may include up to 80% of prescriptions and dental work.

Other Provincial initiatives announced in or prior to the budget include:

-

receiving child care.

an additional $1 million to women's

shelters in the province, Child Welfare support increased by $20 million, - Handicapped Children's Services will have an increase of $6.5 million, - $19 million more for programs for adults with developmental disabilities, - a 4% increase in funding for the Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped, -

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

g

While some of the major indicators of need, such as the unemployment rate, will perform more positively over the forecast period, Edmonton will continue to reflect a consistently lower level of socio-economic status and an older population than Calgary.

Thus, the proportion of people accessing health and social services will be higher for Edmonton.

24

*Socio-Economnc Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton 0 0 *

* 0

*

Many of the provincial granting agencies have been amalgamated, but at the same time, the of grant funds available has dropped amount 0 ~100overall. The Community Lottery Boards (CLBs) are now in place to distribute revenues from gaming. Edmonton's share is estimated at $11.2 million per year.

Social Health Index 101 99 98 96 9695 94 93 92

0

0

EDMONTON a

*

0 *

* *

A study recently released by the Edmonton Social Planning Council examined fifteen different social factors to assess changes in Edmonton's social health since 19935. The index showed that social conditions in Edmonton have improved in some ways but that overall, conditions deteriorated by about 4.85% between 1993 (the baseline, assigned a value of 100.0) and 19976. vl

93

*

*

*

* 0 *

The percentage of Edmonton families living at or below the Low Income Cutoff dropped considerably, from 19.0% in 1993 to 12 .9 %p in 1997.

9 Property crime dropped from 10,354 per 100,000 in 1993 to 8,199 per 100,000 in 1997.

Violent crime went from 1,723 per 100,000 in 1993 to 1,379 per 100,000 in 1997, although most of the change occurred between 1993 and 1994 and change has been very gradual since.

0

95

96

97

The teen birth rate, measured as the rate per 1,000 females between ages 15 and 19, dropped from 29.7 in 1993 to 25.2 P in 1997.

The proportion of single parent households in the population has fluctuated between a low of9.4% to a high of 10.8% since 1993.

It was at 9 9 %P in 1997.

The suicide rate had been dropping since 1993 (21.9 per 100,000), but showed a sharp increase min1996 (20.8 per 100,000). It dropped slightly in 1997, to 20.4 P per 100,000.

What has improved? *

94

Source: Edmonton Social Planning Council

*

The incidence of sexually-transmitted disease has fluctuated somewhat since 1993 (when there were 431 cases per 100,000) but is generally declining (4 0 2 P cases per 100,000 in 1997)

*

Life expectancy for Edmontonians has been steadily improving - from 77.58 years in 1993 to 78.24 years in 1997.

Edmontonians have one of the highest life expectancies in the world. The rate for Edmonton men is fifth highest in the world and the rate for women is sixth highest.

What has deteriorated since 1993?

SReports of domestic violence declined in

9

s Edmonton Social Planning Council. 1998. Edmonton Facts No. 5, October 1998. Edmonton, Alberta.

6 Many of the 1997 figures are projections. These are noted by p.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

0

the years after 1993 (285 reports per 100,000), but increased sharply in 1997 (to 350 reports per 100,000).

25

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton 19,450 or 27% over the next five years, by which time they will form 14% of the population. This increase will likely have implications for that portion of the age group that needs to find new employment and for the specific health services used by this group.

Social issues will include coping with the stresses of finding new employment, caring for

Personal bankruptcies are up drasticallyfrom 2.2 per 1,000 population in 1993 to 6.11 P per 1,000 in 1997. * In 1997 the use of the Food Bank (30,658

*

*

*

levels, to 1995 back dropped 100,000) per it was in 1993 than still higher but was but waspstiher t.

(19,622 per 100,000).

The number of crisis support calls increased from a low of 691 per 100,000 in 1993 to over 1,000 per 100,000 in 1994, and has remained at approximately the same level since. level since.

ageing parents, and helping to meet needs of adult children not in the workforce.

1

The Child Welfare caseloads have climbed steadily since 1993, from 433 per 100,000 to 654 P per 100,000 in 1997.

SThe proportion of babies born with low

* Tho proorton baies orndaily

steadily also has birth-weight as3, a5 oincreased inm ofincras births tot. 6.5% iIsolation 5.6% from since 1993,binhei 1993 1997. deaths (i.e., SThe number of premature srsin, t cr 7 thosereage those that occur before age 75) is rising steadily, from 315 per 100,000 population in 1993 to 347 " per 100,000 in 1997.

S

The "baby-boomers", currently in their 40s and 50s, are becoming the overriding demographic group of interest over the long-term. However, from a social and economic perspective this age group is not considered as vulnerable as others are. At the same time, this group needs to be considered due to its sheer numbers and the fact that the older component of the group may experience significant stresses over the forecast period. The 45 to 55 age group, currently comprising just over 12% of Edmonton's population, will increase by

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The 75+ age group in the population will grow by about 9,000 or 30% during the forecast period. The increase will occur largely in the central area of the city. A high proportion of this age group will be women living alone. The demand for services such as health care, exercise programs, seniors housing, and aids to significantly. increase significantly. will increase living will daily living and conflicts with adult children and other caregivers may affect this group.

The 15 - 19 age group will increase by over 7,000 or 13%, resulting in increased challenges for secondary schools, increases in some types of property crimes, and demand for young offender services. The population increases for this age group will occur primarily in Mill Woods and the west area of the city. An

Demographic Changes The increase in the 75+ and 15-19 year age groups will be the most significantdemographictrend during the forecast period

0

services in demand for recreational increase will become services and prease in demand for recreational evident. evident. d

The 0 - 9 age group will decline by more than

1,000 or 1.3% during the forecast period.

However, increasing employment opportunities and incentives to work programs will result in a significant number of mothers entering the workforce, placing upward pressure on child care services. The proportion of mothers in the workforce is already greater than the proportion of working women who are not caring for children. The employment trend will outweigh the demographic trend with respect to child care services over the forecast period.

26

0

0

I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

0

0

The net migration is forecast to remain positive. In-migrants will generally be young and the increase will create some additional demand for housing, child care, and other human services, 0 Employment and Unemployment

come without benefits and job security.

Therefore, a significant group of employed Edmontonians will not enjoy the security that others will experience. This group will encounter stresses due to the insecurity and lack of benefits. A significant segment will shift between employment, training and employment programs, and short-term periods on welfare.

Further economic prosperity will enhance the wellbeing of many Edmontonians.

9

* Sthose

Positive social impacts will come from decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and low mortgage rates. This environment will result in increased financial independence, improved health status for those Edmontonians obtaining full-time jobs with benefits, and successful with small business ventures, Therefore, demand for some elements of social services may be reduced.

The Family TeFm The number of reported cases offamily disputes are up significantly in Edmonton, although reported child abuse has declined i

actually down from previous years (695 cases actually down from previous years (695 cases

.

M The limited gains in wage settlements may not keep pace with the projected 2.0% to 2.5% annual inflation rate and inflation may remain below the level at which income tax categories are indexed. Therefore, middle-income Edmontonians, who do not gain from the Federal Child Tax Benefit increase or the Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit, may continue to see a reduction in spending power.

As well, while Employment Insurance premiums have decreased slightly, Canada Pension Plan premiums have increased significantly. The decreases in the former will be more than off-set by the increase in the latter. g More people will be working from home with the assistance of information technology.

Greater use of technology, supported by new Federal Government initiatives, will spill over into areas such as home schooling and other aspects of education and commerce. m

Many new jobs are, and will be, "non-standard" (self-employment, part-time, short-term) and

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

S

In general, although the number of reported family disputes is up for Edmonton (3,411 reported cases in 1996, 5,357 in 1997), the numbers of reported child abuse cases are

z

reported in 1996, 543 in 1997).

Alberta's 19 women's shelters, 2 second stage housing facilities and 8 rural family violence prevention centres admitted 5,212 women with 6,232 children during 19977. This number is down slightly from the 5,410 women and 6,293 children accommodated in 1996. Eighty-nine percent of these women and 68% of the children had suffered psychological abuse; 72% of the women and 16% of the children had been physically mistreated. Other abuses reported were financial abuse, abuse or threats of abuse to children, neglect (in the case of children), and sexual abuse. Many of those admitted reported more than one type of abuse.

Youth Unemployment The proposed government actions to address youth unemployment may help stabiise the widening gap

7 http://www.gov.ab.ca/pab/acn/199808/6619.html

27

,Socio-Economic

Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

between the rates ofyouth employment and adult employment a

the amount of time they are able to donate has dropped somewhat m

Albertans still lead the nation in active volunteer work. Just over 40% of Albertans volunteer their time, compared with the national rate of 31%. Across Canada, about 31% of the total population aged 15 and over volunteered their time, an increase from the rate of 27% estimated in 1987. The average volunteer contributed 149 hours during the year, down from 191 hours in 1987. A small core group of the population did the bulk of the donating and volunteering. One-third of all volunteers accounted for 81% of total volunteer hours. One major finding was the extent of volunteering among young people aged 15 to 24. In 1997, an estimated 33% of youth in that age group were volunteers, almost double the proportion of 18% a decade earlier. These young volunteers, however, contributed fewer hours than their counterparts 10 years ago.

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of unemployed young volunteers aged 15 to 24 believed that their volunteer effort would increase their chances of finding a job.

s

A pilot program in applied studies at colleges and technical institutions has very recently been made an ongoing part of Alberta's educational system. These programs include significant work experience sessions and are

The willingness to volunteer appears to increase with levels of income and education, and is greatest in the 30 to 44 year age group, particularly in households with school children.

Volunteers with higher household incomes generally contribute less time than those with

made possible through direct involvement of

lower incomes. Seniors with considerable

prospective employers in design, operation and funding of the studies.

disposable time are less likely to do volunteer work than younger adults. Those seniors who

The youth unemployment rate (15-24 age group) has been significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate in recent year.

Figures released by Statistics Canada 8 show marked improvement in youth employment during September 1998. Initiatives such as the applied studies program education should bring further improvement. An interesting manifestation is that many youth are volunteering their time, in the hope this will create job opportunities for themselves in the volunteer and not for profit sector (see below),

Education The improving economy and increasing job opportunities is fuelling the demand for training more closely tied to employment opportunities. g

m

The number of high school graduates will continue to increase as the 15-19 age group and the number of out-of-province and foreign students increase.

Not-for-Profit Sector The andVolunteer Albertans and Edmontonians, continue to

volunteer their time to help others. Although the numbers ofpeople volunteering are holding steady,

do, however, are more active in terms of the amount of time they commit to volunteer work.

The pending retirement of large numbers of baby boomers could have a positive affect on

volunteerism.

http//www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/981009/d981009.ht m Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

28

I

aSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton Poverty

decreasing unemployment rate, will directly

The percentage of low-incomefamilies and children in Edmonton will continue to be higher thanfor Alberta as a whole. While the extent of poverty is high in Edmonton, it will decline over theforecastperiod,

working poor families with children who are not on welfare. One quarter of Edmonton (CMA) children live in families with incomes below the low-income cut-offs. This rate may decrease somewhat during the forecast period, given the historically close association between the unemployment rate and the poverty rate.

g

help reduce the depth and extent of poverty for

In August of 1998, the Edmonton Community Services Department conducted a survey of Edmonton shelter agencies providing accommodations in the City. 912 of the 925

Incidence of Children Under 18 Years inLow Income Families

30%

emergency and transitional shelter beds available were occupied, for an average

25% 20% .

occupancy rate of 99%. The vast majority of

15s%anada

these facilities reported that they were

10% /0

operating at 100% capacity, and were having to turn many people away. It is probable that these facilities will be much more stressed once cold weather sets in. Homelessness on this

scale is an increasing problem across Canada.

A major contributor is the shortage of

alternative supportive and independent living options. options

CgaryCMA CMA oEdmonton

0 81

86

Year 91

95

Source: Statistics Canada Note: The City ofEdmonton makes up 71% ofthe

Edmonton CMA, the incidencefor the City alone would

be significantly higher as the CMA contains a number of more affluent communities.

and lower * Increased employment unemployment rates could also see the number rates could over-crowding m In Edmonton, the woen wasithunemployment or ingl problem seltrs mostextemeat most extreme at shelters for single women with

* * Sare

rate or without children, where the occupancyithmore amiies wa 0 I I%.Ageciessering was 111%. Agencies serving families with children have long waiting lists. Those agencies serving the many other homeless Edmontonians - youth, single men, seniors and those with drug and alcohol problems all effectively at or over capacity, and the full force of winter has not yet been felt. The

of food bank users level off (food bank usage

more than doubled between 1991 and 1996). than doubled between 1991 and 1996).

Food Bank Users City of Edmonton 150

00 Adults

upcoming months will undoubtedly see

9 *

ongoing problems in this area. Edmonton's current modest population growth will place more demand on the housing supply, thereby putting additional pressure on vulnerable members of the population.

sochildren 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Source: Edmonton Gleaners Association

m The Child Tax Benefit increase and the Family Employment Tax Credit, along with a

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

29

I:Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton Health Services

Social Services

The reinvestment of additionalfunds in health care offers some promise that concerns in this area may be reduced

Municipal social services are no longer as widely available and will increasingly be targeted to those most in need

s

9

9

Over the forecast period, the health care system can expect increased demand from specific populations, such as the 75+ age group and Aboriginal people. These groups, as well as low-income individuals and families, have relatively poor health status and high health care use.

The recent funding increases, especially due to the new Regional Health Authority funding model (1997), the increases to Canada Health and Social Transfer, and the pressures to increase funding will make delivery of health services more manageable for the Capital Health Authority. This may be offset Health Authority. This may be offsetboards. somewhat by recent pressures from doctors for higher remuneration.

m

m

Government to decrease the Day Care

Government to decrease the Day Care Operating Allowance in 1998 and eliminate it in 1999 may not affect demand from lowincome families as the Day Care Subsidy to low-income parents will be increased a similar

The downsizing of provincial institutions has meant that more mentally ill persons are living and being treated in the community. Many are being forced to live in inadequate or marginal inner city housing and this has created

amount for children of most ages. However, ou f ile o ot ags ow those families who do not qualify for the subsidy likely toose seek alternate lent oelkl usd.~lbwill be more

additional pressures on human services in the community, as evidenced by the information on earlier, rates presented shelter occupancy shelter rates occupancy presented earlier m

The City has recently announced plans to start licensing group and foster homes. Many foster parents may re-evaluate their participation in

The Capital Region Children's Services Authority will take responsibility for child welfare. Under this new agency, which includes Edmonton, St. Albert and Strathcona County, some child welfare related services will move to community agencies under contract to the Authority. The region has been experiencing an increase in child welfare monthly cases. The increasing numbers may be tempered over the forecast period due to increased employment resulting in reduced family stress. Some growing pains may be expected, as the Authority adjusts to its new role within the context of existing agencies and boards.

The proposed policy changes by the Alberta

child care, possibly placing children at greater risk.

Crime and Violence

the program, if they are forced to comply with []

expensive licensing requirements.

The current short supply living supportive living of supportive supply of current short SThe and group homes for vulnerable populations (e.g., frail elderly, mentally ill, disabled

individuals, abused children, and troubled dresdnued bby local t group teens) will need to bewndiidall, addressed groups

teens) will ene ddn ereseblcas provincial agencies during the forecast and period, period.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

The demographic and economic trends will create ofcinaatity conditions which are likely to slow the current rate of criminal activity. [

Recently released data from Statistics Canada

indicated that the national murder rate in 1997 fell to its lowest level since 1969. The forecast calls for the reductions in crime in the City of Edmonton to continue in almost all kinds of 30

0

I

m

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton' crime from the levels reported during the first part of the 1990s. This is a trend mirrored across Canada and correlates with the ageing of the population. However, reported crime rates increased slightly in 1997, and reductions over the forecast period will not be as significant as they have been.

The citizen surveys conducted by the Edmonton Police Service in 1994 and 1996 indicate a stabilisation of the perceived level of neighbourhood crime. Additionally, respondents in 1996 indicated that they felt

safer and reported a slight drop in avoidance a slight drop in avoidancem safer and reported from 1994. behaviours

intensive care giving, without respite, may increase violence within the family. The impact of an ageing population will also need to be considered in family violence initiatives.

Recreation and Leisure While people are not able to recreate as much as in previousyears, the needfor health-givingand ulfdling leisure activities is becoming ever more important Leisure activities and opportunities to enjoy natureplay an importantpreventativerole in relationto health and socialissues especially in light of the increasedpressures on the health and socialsupport systems.

SCriminal Offences

m

Property Persons

70

60 a

,

_one

1996. Albertans had the highest participation

E 40.

at 89%. The economic benefit of naturerelated activities was immense. Across Canada, people spent an estimated $11 billion nature-related activities, an average of $550 per participant. These expenses represented about 2% of total household spending in 1996.

._rate,

0

20._ 1 93

-on 94

95

96

97

SYear m

Forty-nine percent of Edmontonians expressed that they had less free time for recreation and leisure pursuits in 1996 than they did in 1991.

Feelings of time constraint are likely to continue.

m

What are Edmontonians' favourite recreational activities? Walking for pleasure has consistently taken the #1 spot since the Alberta Recreation Survey started in 1981. Bicycling has held its popularity, but other previously more popular activities (visiting museums, dancing, crafts, spectator sports, gardening and camping) have all declined in popularity, leaving biking in the #2 slot. People have become busier, and the cost of participation has become more important. Low-cost health-

Source: Edmonton PoliceService i

The proportion of the population in the 12-24 age group is projected to increase 9% by the end of the forecast period. Since this age group is more crime prone than other age groupings, crime rates may rise accordingly.

m] Seniors, the fastest growing age group, are generally more fearful of crime than are others in the general population. Efforts directed at reducing the fear of crime will need to consider this demographic trend. z

A recent survey of 87,000 Canadians found that nearly 20 million people, or about 85% of the population aged 15 and over, participated in or more nature-related activities during

Because of an aging population, more elderly people will be cared for by, or will be living with their adult children. Stresses caused by

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

31

I

I2Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton promoting activities that people can do spontaneously have remained popular. More expensive activities, or activities that have to be planned in advance or require greater time commitments have dropped in popularity.

Ageing of the population is probably also a factor influencing people's choice of activities.

g

Leisure Activities

g

The growth in the number of festivals and events is placing a strain on primary event locations like William Hawrelak Park, Sir Winston Churchill Square and Dr. Wilbert McIntyre Park in Strathcona. The demand for these venues cannot be completely accommodated and therefore other sites like Rundle and Coronation parks are being used.

Large events attract huge volumes of people and are very positive for the City. At the same time, however, these sites become temporarily unavailable for casual use and often sustain long-lasting damage due to the high attendance.

z

Organised runs and walks continue to be very popular both as fund-raisers for charities and as healthy recreation activities.

Festivals and Major Events _ Edmntnsnceasngitpofles ____ Edmonton is increasing its profile as a venue for major cultural, sporting, and music events

1

Over the next few years, Edmonton will host several international sporting competitions, and

0 0

a new opportunity for sponsorship and exposure. The variety and high quality of Edmonton's festivals and events presents many choices for businesses. Event producers have to work harder than ever to maintain and expand their sponsorship base.

%of Leisure Activities

% of Households Walking for pleasure Participating Walking for pleasure 89.16% 61.71% Bicycling 55.71% Attending sports events, etc.

55.59% Crafts, etc.

53.63% Visiting a museum, etc.

53.29% Swimming in pools 50.87% Gardening 47.52% etc.video games, laying Paing vc game 43.6% Ovemight camping 43.60% 43.37% Picnicking in City Source: Alberta Recreation Survey

Championships. The tremendous effort of these volunteers is what has made our bids successful and Edmonton will realise many benefits because of these events.

As the number of festivals and events continues to rise, the competition for sponsors is becoming more intense. Each Each new new event event brings brings

0

Gaming and Video Lottery Terminals (VLTs)

possibly several world championships.

Volunteer groups have been successful in bringing the 1999 Labatt Brier, the 1999 Canadian Triathlon Championships, the 2001 World Triathlon Championships, the 1999 World Tae Kwon Do Championships, the 2000 World Youth AAA Baseball Championships as well as World Cup swimming events to Edmonton. Other groups are bidding on the 2001 World Track and Field Championships and the 2002 World Swimming

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

Concerns about the impacts of gambling on individuals, families, and the community as a whole have grown significantly over the last few years. Notwithstanding, a large majority ofAlberta communities have just voted to retain VLTs.

*

The majority of Alberta communities that held referenda on elimination of video lottery terminals voted to retain VLTs. Provincial

32

0

[ZoSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton

l

Government reaction to these votes is still forthcoming.

i

$1.37 billion was played in legal gaming in Edmonton in 1997/98, including lotteries, charitable casinos, bingo, raffles, horse racing, pull tickets, and video lottery terminals.

SAbout i

there may be unforeseen needs or issues that will be significant. m The economic elements identified in the social forecast are subject to the risks identified for the economic forecast.

m About $1.7 billion was wagered in VLTs. In 1995-96, net revenues to the Provincial Government (after prizes and commissions) were $431 million. m While jobs are created through gaming, it is unclear how many of these are new jobs and how many are transferred from other industries as individuals make choices as to where their leisure dollars are spent.

Total Gaming inAlberta 3500

3000 2500

* 2000 .

1500 S1000

500 o

n 89

,

, 91

, 93 Year

, 95

97

Source.: Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission

SOCIAL FORECAST RISKS g

While the "baby boomer" population will show the greatest demographic change, the forecast does not view this age group as a vulnerable population over the next five years. However,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

0

33

SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1998

2003, City ofEdmonton

-

Appendix I: Northern Alberta Major Projects Value

Company

Description

Location

($millions)

Auriculture & Related 36.0 Wanham

AgraFibre Industries Alberta Pool Alberta Wheat Pool Alta Goldboard Ltd Alta-Kor Inc Baconsfield Farms Ltd

Grain Terminal

6.8 Red Deer Area 120.0 Thorhild

Grain Elevator Strawboard Plant

6.0 Edmonton 100.0 Edmonton Area

Instant Noodle Plant Hog Breeding Farm and Processing Facility

11.0 Rycroft

Soup Plant - installing additional equipment Grain Terminal

10.0 Westlock 12.2 Forestburg

Strawboard Plant Strawboard Mill

5.0 Edmonton

Canyon Creek Food Company Ltd Cargill Ltd Compak Canada Ltd Compak Forestburg Inc

140.0 Killam

Fieldboard International Ltd

Fibreboard Plant(Fescue)

7.0 Rycroft

Strawboard Mill

Fletcher's Fine Foods Ltd

23.5 Red Deer

Hog Plant Expansion

Minerva Animal Health Corp TransAlta Enterprises United Grain Growers

30.0 Edmonton Area 73.0 Edmonton (Clover Bar) 7.0 Rycroft

Manufacturing Facility For Pet Skin-Care Products Composter Grain Terminal

7.2 Strathcona County

Winter Gardens Sub total

Greenhouse

694.7

Mining Broken Hill Propertles(BHP)

800.0 Northwest Territories

Diamond mine

Cardinal River Coals Ltd

250.0 Hinton

Cheviot Open-Pit Coal Mine

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

34

••• • • •• •• • •• • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• ••• •• •• • • • City of Edmonton

Socio-Economic Forecast,

Description

Location

Value

Company

(Smi!lions) 5.5

Smoky River Coat Ltd Sub total

North of Grande Cache

New Mine

1,050.0

011/Gas/011sands Alberta Energy Company

200.0 Cold Lake/Foster Creek

SAGD Pilot Plant Expansion

Frog Lake

Increased Bitumen Production

300.0

Wabasca Area

In Situ Bitumen Production

Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd

175.0

Primrose/Wolf Lake

In Situ Bitumen Production

Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd

500.0

Primrose/Wolf Lake

Heavy Oil Development Expansion

Alberta Energy Company Amber Energy Inc

12.0

Amoco Canada & Alberta Natural Gas Co

100.0

Empress

Natural gas liquids extraction plant

'Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd

100.0

Brintnell

Increased In Situ Bitumen Production

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd

800.0

Beartrap and Charlotte Lakes In Situ Bitumen Production

Canadian Occidental Petroleum

66.0 West of Rainbow Lake

Development of Hay River Oilfield and Pipeline Construction

Crestar Energy

3.5

Czar

Oilfield Battery - Pilot Project

Crestar Energy

5.0

Hayter

Oilfield Battery

Elk Point Resources

8.0

Saddle Hills

Sour Gas Plant and Pipeline

Surmont

SAGD Bitumen Commercial Project

Lloydminster

Upgrader Expansion

Gulf Canada Resources Ltd

1,100.0

Husky Oil Ltd

500.0

Imperial Oil Ltd

450.0 Cold Lake

Imperial Oil Ltd

40.0 Cold Lake

Imperial Oil Ltd

17.0

Edmonton

Refinery Upgrade

Japan Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd

26.0

Hangingstone

Phase I: SAGD Bitumen Pilot Plant

Japan Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd

45.0

Hangingstone

Phase II: SAGD Bitumen Pilot Plant

Japan Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd

129.0

Hangingstone

Phase III: SAGD Bitumen Production

Koch Exploration Canada Ltd

200.0 Elk Point

Koch Exploration Canada Ltd

1,000.0

Fort Hills

Heavy Oil Plant Expansion (Phases 11-13) In Situ Development Production

In Situ Bitumen Production Oilsands Mining and Extraction Plant

Mobil Oil Canada Ltd

100.0

Cold Lake

In Situ Bitumen Plant

Mobil Oil Canada Ltd

1,000.0

Kearl Lake

Oilsands Mine & Extraction Plant

Mobil Oil Canada Ltd

1,800.0

Kearl Lake

Bitumen Upgrader

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

35

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1998 - 2003, Company

Value

City of Edmonton.

Location

Description

($millions) Murphy Oil

157.0 Lindbergh 40.0 Cold Lake

Norcen Energy Resources

In Situ Bitumen Development In Situ Bitumen Pilot Plant In Situ Bitumen Commercial Production Gas Compressor Station

Norcen Energy Resources Nova Gas Transmission

400.0 Provost/Lindbergh 32.0 Beaverdodge

Novagas Clearinghouse Ltd Numac Energy Inc

25.0 Zama Lake 57.0 Manatokan Lake

Gas Processing Plant

Pan Canadian Petroleum Ltd

75.0 Christina Lake

Phase 1:SAGD Bitumen Production

Pan Canadian Petroleum Ltd

300.0 Christina Lake

Phase Il/Ill: SAGD Bitumen Production

Pan Canadian Petroleum Ltd Petro Canada

100.0 Elk Point 12.0 Edmonton

In Situ Bitumen Project Refinery Upgrade

Petro Canada Ranger Oil Ltd

250.0 MacKay River 225.0 Lindbergh

SAGD Bitumen Production In Situ Bitumen Production Expansion

In Situ Bitumen Pilot Project

Bitumen Upgrader

Shell Canada Ltd

1,800.0 Strathcona County

Shell Canada Ltd Shell Canada Ltd/BHP Minerals Canada Ltd

120.0 Peace River

In situ oilsands plant expansion

1,000.0 Muskeg River

Oilsands Mining/Extraction Plant

Suncor Energy

360.0 Fort McMurray

Steepbank Mine Project

Suncor Energy

320.0 Fort McMurray

Fixed Plant Expansion

Suncor Energy

190.0 Fort McMurray

Project Millennium Preliminary

Suncor Energy

2,000.0 Fort McMurray

Oilsands Plant Expansion

Suncor Energy

100.0 Primrose/Burnt Lake

In Situ Bitumen Commercial Plant

Suncor Energy/Novagas Canada Ltd

164.0 Fort McMurray

Natural Gas Liquids/Olefins Extraction

Syncrude Canada Ltd

500.0 Fort McMurray

Northmine/Debottlenecking I

Syncrude Canada Ltd

800.0 Fort McMurray

Aurora Mine - Train 1/Debottlenecking II

Syncrude Canada Ltd

800.0 Fort McMurray

Aurora Mine - Train II/Debottlenecking III

Syncrude Canada Ltd

1,000.0 Fort McMurray

Continuous Improvement

Syncrude Canada Ltd

3,000.0 Fort McMurray

Upgrader Expansion

Talisman Energy Inc Texaco Sub total

17.2 Edson

Gas Plant Expansion

35.0 Frog Lake

In Situ Bitumen Pilot Plant

22,555.7

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

36

Description

Location

Value

Company

($millions) Forestry & Related Alberta Pacific Forest Industries Inc

900.0 Athabasca 65.0 Boyle

Crestbrook Forest Industries

High Level

Footner Forest Products Ltd

150.0

Grande Alberta Paper Ltd

900.0 Grande Prairie 30.0

Slave Lake Pulp Corporation Tolko Industries Ltd Weyerhaeuser Canada

Slave Lake

48.0 High Prairie 110.0 Slave Lake Sub total

Paper Mill Laminated Veneer Lumber Mill OSB Plant Light Weight Coated Paper Mill Pulp Capacity Expansion Hardwood Veneer Line and Plywood Mill Mill Modernization

2,203.0

Manufacturing Alberta Recovery Technologies AltaSteel Ltd

5.0 Lacombe

Tire Recycling Plant

5.0 Edmonton

Plant Modernization

27.0 Nisku

Fiberex Glass Corp

Continuous Glass Thread Plant

IntelliGene Expressions Inc

4.0 Edmonton

Biopharmaceutical Plant

IPEX Inc Kitec Manufacturing

9.0 Edmonton 5.7 Edmonton

PVC Pipe Manufacturing Plant Manufacturing Facility/Warehouse/Office Space

Miza Pharmaceuticals Inc Proflex Pipe Corp ThermicEdge Corporation

35.0 Edmonton 12.0 Edmonton 8.0 Edmonton

ThermicEdge Corporation

8.0 Edmonton 4.5

Westaim Corporation Sub total ChemicallPetro-Chemlcal Agrium Inc Air Liquide Canada Inc

Fort Saskatchewan

Drug Research, Manufacturing and Packing Plant Composite Pipe Plant Ceramic Technology Plant Ceramic Materials Plant and Head Office Burn Dressings Plant

123.2 15.0 Sturgeon County

Fertilizer Plant Upgrade

70.0 Strathcona County

Air Separation Plant

Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd

650.0 Strathcona County 250.0 Joffre

MTBE/ETBE Plant Linear Alpha Olefins Plant

AT Plastics Inc

145.0 Edmonton

Copolymer Plant Expansion

Alberta BioClean Fuels Inc

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

37

Forecast, 1998 - 2003, City of Edmonton s Socio-Economic Company

Value

Location

Description

($mllions) Dow Chemical Canada Inc

188.0 Fort Saskatchewan

Ethylene Plant Expansion

Dow Chemical Canada Inc

140.0 Fort Saskatchewan

3" Production Unit to Polyethylene Plant

NOVA Chemicals NOVA Chemicals/Union Carbide

395.0 Joffre 825.0 Joffre

Polyethylene Plant Ethylene Plant

Novagas Canada

100.0 Sturgeon County

Fractionator Plant

Novagas Canada/Suncor Energy Praxair

164.0 Fort McMurray 25.0 Fort Saskatchewan

Gas Extraction Plant/Fractionation Tower Oxygen Producing Plant Expansion

Shell Chemicals Canada

375.0 Strathcona County

Ethylene Glycol Plant

316.0 Prentiss

Polyethylene Plant

Union Carbide Sub total

3,658.0

Other Industrial AltaSteel Ltd

14.0 Edmonton

Anadime Corp

Facility Expansion

5.5 Fox Creek/Cold Lake/Elk

Oilfield Processing and Disposal Plants

Point

Big Horn Cement Inc

100.0 Rocky Mountain House

Cement Plant

City of Edmonton

10.0 Edmonton

Materials Recycling Facility

Garneau Inc

10.0 Camrose

Pipecoating Plant

Newalta Corp

5.0 Lloydminster

Oilfield Waste Processing Plant

Ultrasonic Industrial Services

6.5 Peace River

Silica Sand Processing Plant

Viridian Inc

3.5 Fort Saskatchewan

Metal Refinery Expansion

Sub total

154.5

Pipelines AEC Pipelines Ltd

220.0 Fort McMurray to Edmonton

Alberta Energy Company/Husky Oil Ltd

400.0 Fort McMurray to Hardisty

Alliance Pipeline Ltd Partnership

3,700.0 Fort St John to Chicago

Federated Pipelines Ltd

40.0 Dunvegan to Judy Creek

Imperial Oil/Amoco Canada/Koch Oil Co IPL Energy Inc Nova Gas Transmission Ltd

250.0 Cold Lake to Hardisty 650.0 Alberta to Chicago ($875.0) 32.0 Beaverlodge

Capacity Expansion 'Alberta Oil Sands Pipeline' Heavy Oil Pipeline "Lakeland Pipelines" Natural Gas Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline Bitumen and Dilvent Pipelines 'ThickSilver Project' Pipeline expansion Gas Pipeline

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

0 ** •0 9 ** 0 **

**

** 0100)

38

0)) 0 40 0 0 *

0 0) 0) 4

Description

Location

Value

Company

($mllllons) 210.0 Throughout Alberta

Nova Gas Transmission Ltd

1,400.0 Throughout Alberta 40.0 Fort McMurray to Buffalo Lake 40.0 Buffalo Lake to Fort

Nova Gas Transmission Ltd Nova Pipeline Ventures Nova Pipeline Ventures Limited Partnership

Mainline Looping and Modifications Pipeline Capacity Addition Natural Gas Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline

McMurray

Novagas Clearinghouse Peace Pipe Line Ltd Shell Canada Ltd

Pipeline Expansion

225.0 Alberta to BC 30.0 LaGlace to Valleyview

Oil Pipeline Expansion

375.0 Muskeg River to Scotford

Bitumen Pipeline 'Corridor Pipeline'

Refinery

TransCanada Pipelines Ltd TransCanada Pipelines Ltd Wild Rose Pipeline Inc Sub total

877.0 Alberta to Central Canada 263.0 Various Locations

Nexus Pipeline Expansion Mainline Improvements

475.0 Fort McMurray to Hardisty

Heavy Oil 'Athabasca' Pipeline

9,227.0

Telecommunications 120.0 Vanc/Edm/Toronto

Ledcor Industries/Fonorola Inc/CNR

60.0 Edmonton/Calgary

Telus Corp Sub total

Fibre Optic Cable Network Fibre Optic Network

180.0

Power 6.0 Fort McMurray

Alberta Power

Transmission Facilities

CU Power International

35.0 Grande Prairie Area

Power Generating Plant

CU Power International

50.0 Primrose Lake

Power Co-generation Plant

Nova Chemicals

285.0 Joffre

Cogeneration Power Plant

TransAlta Energy Corp/Air Liquide

100.0 Fort Saskatchewan

Cogeneration Power Plant

Sub total

476.0

CommerciallRetail Burger King Restaurants Cambridge Shopping Centers Ltd Camrose Development Ltd Cdn Real Estate Investment Tr/Springwood Dev

15.0 Edmonton

Outlets

13.2 Edmonton

Renovations - Southgate Mall

250.0 Edmonton 13.8 St Albert/Medicine Hat

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

Retail complex Retail Centres (2)

39

Company

Value

Location

Description

($millions) Centrefund Realty Corp.

7.0 Sherwood Park

Strathcona Station Shopping Centre Expansion

Chapters Inc

4.5 Edmonton

Retail Book Stores (2)

CIBC

8.5 Edmonton

Bank Outlet Upgrade

115.0 Edmonton

Delcon Development Group Ltd. Edmonton Kenworth Ltd

3.8 Edmonton

Enterprise Bowlen Inc.

40.0 Edmonton 4.5 Edmonton

Finning International

20.0 Edmonton

Home Depot Canada Inc. ICC Construction Concepts

3.6 Sherwood Park

Lauring Group

15.0 Edmonton

Shopping Centre/Motel Namao Centre New Offices and Sales Building Port Alberta - Redeveopment of Hudson Bay Bldg Building Renovations Retail Store Business Park (3 Phases) Belmont Town Center

Lehndorff-Tandem Developments Revy Home & Garden Centres

6.0 Edmonton 7.0 Edmonton

Great Canadian Superstore Hardware Store (CapilanolYellowhead)

Staples Office Supply

3.5 Sherwood Park

New Store

Wal-mart

5.0 Fort McMurray

Retail Store

Wal-mart

4.0 Grande Prairie

Retail Store

Wal-mart

5.5 Sherwood Park

Retail Store

Westfair Properties

5.0 Leduc

ExtraFoods Grocery Store

Zellers

4.0 Edmonton/Sherwood Park

Addition to Stores (2)

Sub total

553.9

TourismlRecreation AMC Theatres of Canada

40.0 Edmonton

Theatre Complex

Canadian Pacific Ltd

50.0 Jasper

Jasper Park Lodge Re-Development

Chateau Canmore Resort Inc City of Edmonton

6.0 Edmonton 15.0 Edmonton

Regency Hotel Upgrade Convention Centre Expansion

4.0 Edmonton

Renaissance Hotel Upgrades

Coast Hotels and Resorts Dorsett Hotels & Resorts Intl of Hong Kong

22.0 Edmonton

Radisson Plaza Hotel

Edmonton Space and Science Centre

15.0 Edmonton

Expansion and Renovation, Four Galleries

Famous Players Inc

19.0 Edmonton

Movie Screens, Game Centre & Food Court

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

40

Value

Company

Description

Location

($mlllions) 10.0 Edmonton

Global Country Foundation

3.7 Edmonton

Highgate Hotel Holdings

Canadian Country Music Hall of Honor Coast Terrace Inn Renovations

Londonderry Neighbourhood inn

15.0 Edmonton

Renovations

MC2 Developments

12.0 Edmonton

P.R. Developments Ltd

15.0 Nisku

Conversion of One Thornton Court Office Tower Royal Inn Airport Centre

5.0 Slave Lake

Peace Valley Inns

Motel/Smitty's Restaurant

Playdium Entertainment Corp Royop Hospitality

10.0 Edmonton 5.0 Nisku

Multimedia Interactive Entertainment Complex Super 8 Motel

Sandman Hotels Sheraton Grande

10.0 Grande Prairie

Hotel

7.5 Edmonton 200.0 County of Thorhild 12.6 Strathcona County

Summerside Resorts Trizen Equities Ltd.

12.0 Sylvan Lake

Trizen Equities Ltd.

Renovations Long Lake Theme Park Travel Centre Convention Hotel & Recreation Leisure Mall Greenwood Inn Expansion

True North Properties

8.0 Edmonton

West Edmonton Mall West Edmonton Mall

15.0 Edmonton

Galaxyland Hotel

20.0

Famous Players Theatre and IMAX Renovations Hotel, Restaurant & Pub

14.0 Edmonton

Family Recreation Centers

Edmonton 4.0 Edmonton 5.0 Grande Prairie

Westin Hotel Will Inn Ltd YMCA/City of Edmonton Sub total

554.8

Residential 40.0 Edmonton

Christenson Developments

Townhouses -'Rail Town'

Holiday Retirement Corporation

4.5 Red Deer

Seniors Retirement Residence

Omega Developments Inc

3.5 Edmonton

Conversion of YWCA Building to Seniors Housing

5.3 Sherwood Park

Strathcona Seniors Lodge

Pioneer Housing Federation Sub total

53.3

Infrastructurellnstitutional Alberta Education

4.2 Edmonton

Preparedby. City ForecastCommittee, October 1998

ME Lazerte High School - Modernization

41

Socio--Economk Forecast .1998: 2003 City of Edmonton .

Company

Value

Location

Description ,

($mIllIons) Alberta Education

4.7 —Edmonton

Alberta Education

7.5 Grande Prairie

Alberta Education

6.0 High River

Alberta Education

3.6 St Albert

Elementary School - Community: Dorchester

Alberta Public Works, Supply & Services

4.2 - Spirit River

Central Peace Community Health Centre Renovations

Alberta Transportation & Utilities

8.0 Edmonton

Highway 14 Interchange At Whitemud Drive

Archer Memorial Hospital

5.3 Lamont

Addition

—

18.0 Edmonton

Canadian National Railways

100.0 Edmonton to Ontario

Canadian National Railways Capital Health Authority

6.5 Edmonton

Capital Health Authority

26.0 Edmonton

St Joseph High School - Modernization/Addition New Junior High School

Northeast Community Health Centre U of A Children's Health Centre Renovations

300.0 Edmonton 10.0 Edmonton

Belvedere LRT Station Upgrade

City of Edmonton

70.0 Edmonton

Anthony Henday Drive New Public Works Building

5.0 Cold Lake

Fitness, Sports and Recreation Complex

12.0 Slave Lake

Keeweetinok Lakes Regional Health Authority

Sewer System Upgrade

4.3 St Albert 200.0 Leduc

Edmonton Regional Airport Authority

8.9 Lamont

Lamont Health Care Centre

4.0 Edmonton

Renovations and Addition

Norwood Facility

8.1

Dr. Angus McGugan Pavilion Addition/Alterations

Peace Regional Health Authority

27.0 Peace River

Health Centre

Royal Canadian Mounted Police

30.0 Edmonton

Headquarters

Suncor Inc

25.0 Fort McMurray Area

Bridge to Steepbank Mine

5.0 Edmonton

University of Alberta

15.6 Edmonton Sub total

Total Projects

_

Health Complex

Newman Theological College/St Joseph Seminary

University of Alberta

_

International Airport Terminal Modifications

Lakeland Regional Health Authority

Edmonton

_

Railway Upgrade

City of Edmonton

Defense Construction Canada

_

Intermodal Terminal

City of Edmonton

City of St Albert

_

- New Holy Spirit Academy

_ _ _

_

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Centre Facilities Renewal and Upgrading

918.9

42,303.0

Prepared by: Economic Development Edmonton, July 6, 1998

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 1998

42

• • •• •• • • •• ••• • • • ••• • ••• •• •• • • • • •• •• •• •• •• ••

LEGAJ.

Appendix II Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

F-1 F-1

.

geOn

L-

Primary Highway

city

Secondary Highway Railway

..

Town

N

ACCORD MORINVILLE

Village

..

.

County Boundary

f

IoNS 2M

Urban Service Area Boundary

2

n

Edoton

sT.

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w~~nnium

,

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SHERIoTR0

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-

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County . aketcensonBEAUMONT Ste DEVON

CAMA

is

so

Ed Into CM

A] Al

ona 4Now

ep

r_

LEDUC

._ : Leduc Map Data Current aa of June 29, 1998

Warbug

C Ounty 2

S~en0

10 kilometres

25