Edmonton (Alta.) - 1986-Unknown - Residential staging information 1987 (1987 06)

RESIDENTIAL STAGING INFORMATION

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Forecasting Group Long Range Planning Branch June 1987

RESIDENTIAL STAGING INFORMATION

Corporate Forecasting Group m0tORAND

BUILDING

Long Range Planning Branch June 1987

TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ii

List of Tables ........................................................

List of Maps

iii

..........................................................

PURPOSE ...........................................................

1

METHODOLOGY .....................................................

1

Basic Approach

.............................................

......................................................

1

Demand .....................................................

2

Supply

3

FINDINGS ............................................................

Total City Land Supply .........................................

3

Sector Land Supply ............................................

3

Serviced Single Family Lot Supply

5

...............................

Present and Future Servicing Considerations

CONCLUSIONS

I1

1

.......................................................

......................

5

7

List of Tables Table I

Page

City of Edmonton Housing Starts Actual and Forecast by Year ...................................

Table 2

City of Edmonton Housing Starts Actual and Forecast by Year and by City Sector ..................

Table 3

2

9

1986 Potential Dwelling Units by City Sectors .....................

10

Table 4 1987 Potential Dwelling Units by City Sectors .....................

11

Table 5 Potential Dwelling Units Northeast Sector ........................

12

Table 6 Potential Dwelling Units North Sector ............................

13

Table 7 Potential Dwelling Units Southeast Sector ........................

14

Table 8 Potential DwellingUnits Southwest Sector ..........................

15

Table 9 Potential Dwelling Units West Sector

16

............................

Table 10 Inventory of Subdivided and Serviced Lots in Years Using Actual 1986 and Forecasted 1987 and 1987-1991 Annual Absorption Rates

ii

....................

17

List of Maps

Map 1 City Sectors

4

Map 2 City of Edmonton Residential Area Structure Plan Areas, January 1, 1987

111

8

RESIDENTIAL STAGING INFORMATION PURPOSE The purpose of compiling updated staging information is to identify and evaluate the supply and demand of residential land for potential dwelling units in suburban Area Structure Plan (ASP) areas of Edmonton. The staging information is updated on a semi-annual basis (June, December) to reflect actual development activity and forecasts of demand and servicing.

METHODOLOGY Basic Approach The methodology involves determining the supply of 'residential land, by dwelling type, in various stages of approval for ASPs in five city sectors and a forecast of demand (measured by housing starts) by dwelling type by year in each sector. The inventory, measured in years, is calculated by dividing the residential land supply

by actual and forecasted housing demand (by dwelling type in each city sector).

Supply The supply component is calculated by totalling four elements: (i) vacant, serviced lots; (ii) vacant subdivided lots (unserviced); (iii) raw land in approved ASPs; and, (iv) potential dwelling units (pdu) in Council authorized ASPs. The vacant, serviced lots are lots in ASPs which have underground servicing completed and are found in registered subdivision plans. The 'vacant subdivided lots are also included in the inventory supply because they are found in registered subdivisions but do not have any servicing completed.

The total of these two lot

types constitutes the available dwelling units in registered subdivision plans.

The total raw land is calculated from approved ASP Plans and adjusted yearly when additional land is brought into the development process by subdivision and servicing activity. The remainder of the raw land is multiplied by a factor of 17.5 pdu per hectare to calculate the potential available dwelling units. This number was used because it represents the present market conditions for development capacity for single family lots as identified by the Planning Implementation Branch.

The number of potential dwelling units in authorized ASPs considers those ASPs which have had authorization by Council. If the ASP plan states the potential dwelling units, then the actual figures are used; if not, then the 17.5 pdu per hectare is applied. However, authorization does not imply that Council approval of the ASP is automatic. Therefore, lands in authorized ASPs are always shown separately.

Demand The demand component is calculated by applying actual building starts for a specific year or an estimated housing start forecast for future years (Tables 1 and 2). The 1986, 1987 and 1987 to 1991 rates are based on the annual "Housing Market Report, 1987" prepared by the Planning and Building Department. The actual and estimated future servicing activity is also included and is based on discussions with the Land Development Section; these figures are consolidated in the "SocioEconomic Forecasts, 1987 - 1992 City of Edmonton" prepared by the City Forecast Committee.

Actual housing starts for 1986 are used and broken down by housing type based on the city-wide percentages (Table 1).

Table 1 CITY OF EDMONTON HOUSING STARTS ACTUAL AND FORECAST BY YEAR

Average Annual Forecast

Housing

Type

SS GRM APT TOTAL

19861

%

19872

%

19882

%

1,813

95

2,100

95

2,200

92

2,700

87

90 7

4.5

50

2.5

100

4

200

6.5

.5

50

2.5

100

4

200

6.5

1,910

100

2,200

100

2,400

100

3,100

1989-19912

%

100

Note:

SS - Singles, semi's; GRM - Ground Related Multiples; APT - Apartments.

Sources:

1 2

Actual Data - CMHC housing starts for 1986.

Forecast Data - Corporate Forecasting Group, Planning and Building Department Forecast Starts 1987-1991.

The number of housing starts for each city sector (except the Inner City) are calculated the same way for 1987 and 1988 (Table 2). The average annual forecast is used for 1989 to 1991. When the five year absorption rate is calculated, a total from 1987 to 1991 is taken and then divided into the total lot inventory for 1986,

2

1987 and 1987 to 1991. A second calculation using the five year absorption rate is completed, but this time is divided into vacant, serviced subdivided land to determine how long the land supply will last at the forecasted absorption rates.

FINDINGS Total City Land Supply The city has a supply of 139,544 potential residential units for year end 1986, comprised of 76,196 single family pdu, 27,382 potential ground related multiples and 35,966 potential apartment units. A forecast for year end 1987 shows that these figures will drop by 2,000 lots for single family units and 100 lots in ground related multiples (Table 3 and Table 4). (See Tables 5 to 9 for each sector).

When the 1986 absorption rates (Table 2, p.9) for each housing type are applied, the total land supply is capable of accommodating residential development in excess of 20 years. This figure meets the GMP required target inventory of a ten year supply (GMP, Charts 5.5, "Residential Land Supply Target", p. 5.20(a), and 5.6

"Staging Criteria", p. 5.20(b)).

Sector Land Supply The total inventory of potential units in approved and authorized ASPs is sufficient for all dwelling types in all City sectors to meet the GMP land supply target of a 5 year inventory. (GMP, Chart 5.5, "Residential Land Supply Targets", p. 5.20(a)).

However, the inventory of subdivided and serviced land for all residential types in each city sector shows a slightly different picture. The total supply of subdivided, serviced residential land in the Northeast and Southeast sectors are in excess of 20 years, but the other sectors each show less than an eight year supply (Table 10, p.17). The West has 7.6 year supply followed by the Southwest sector with a 6.5 year supply and the North sector with only a 2.5 year supply (Table 10, p.17).

When the 1986 city-wide inventory is forecast to the end of 1987, using forecasted 1987 starts and servicing (Tables 5 to 9), the supply of subdivided and serviced land in the North sector drops to 1.5 years, the Southwest sector drops to 5.3 years and the West to a 6.1 year supply. The other remaining sectors would stay high at a 20+ year supply (Table 10). With the exception of the North sector, the inventory (GMP, of subdivided land in all sectors exceed the GMP target of 2 years.

Chart 5.5 "Residential Land Supply Targets", p. 5.20(a)).

3

MAP 1

CITY SECTORS

I

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.IaINORTIEAST

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NORTH

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CITY

!WEST

Ig1]

1111 !lurlU

Il

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SOURCE: General Municipal Plan Map 5.1I 4

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III

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Ii

Serviced Single Family Lot Supply

The supply of vacant, serviced subdivided single family lots to year end 1986 varies considerably across the city sectors. Specifically, the Southeast has a 6.6 year supply, the Northeast has a 2.7 year supply followed by the Southwest with a 2.1 year supply, the West with a 1.6 year supply and the North sector with a 1.2 year supply (Table 10).

When the 1986 inventory for vacant serviced subdivided single family lots is forecasted to the end of 1987, the West (1.4 year), the Southwest (1.2 year) and the North (0.5 year) sectors all fall to less than a 1.5 year supply. The Southeast decreases to a 5.2 year supply and the Northeast increased to a 5.0 year supply (Table 10). The Northeast supply increased due to increased servicing activity in 1987.

The GMP suggests as a target that there should be a 1.5 year inventory of serviced lots for each dwelling type in each sector. (GMP, Chart 5.5 "Residential Land Supply Targets", p. 5.20(a)). The inventory of serviced single family lots in all

sectors except the Southeast and Northeast could be below the GMP target by the end of 1987, depending on servicing and development activity.

When the 1986 inventory is forecasted using the average annual forecast absorption rates for 1987-1991, the results show that the total housing lots in the North (1.2 years), Southwest (4.2 years), and the West (4.8 years) sectors would have less than a 5 year supply. This forecast also shows that the vacant serviced subdivided single family lot supply for the North (0.4 year), Southwest (1.0 year), and West (1.1 year), all drop to around or less than a one year supply (Table 10).

Present and Future Servicing Considerations

Some of the reasons for declining lot supplies are discussed in this section, as well as ways to overcome any potential future shortages.

North Sector The North sector in Table 10 shows the largest decrease in inventory for single family lots than any other city sector. In the Lake District single family lot supplies will fall to less than one year by the end of 1987. In order to bring more lots onto the market and maintain an available supply a number of servicing issues must be resolved. One of the major problems is the need to develop a larger

5

sanitary sewer and water line from 91 Street east to 66 Street and then into Pilot Sound. At present, the City is negotiating with the Province on costs and to decide whether the sanitary sewer line can go north and connect to the regional system.

For this reason, no new lots have been brought on in the Lake District because of the insufficient capacity to handle the increased servicing demands. Until this major issue is resolved, the Lake District area will continue to have its serviced single family lot supply reduced.

In the Palisades, there are plans to construct a sanitary sewer extension in 1987 along 127 Street to 137 Avenue. The present delays are caused by the need for a $1 million extension to build a pumping station to accommodate the sanitary sewer extension. A temporary solution has been to allow present servicing to go through When this servicing expansion is completed, the the Castle Downs station.

Palisades will be able to bring more lots onto the market.

Northeast Sector The Northeast sector also shows declining levels of serviced, single family lots.

The development area of Pilot Sound at present could proceed, but the activity is dependent on extending sewer connections to the main extension from the Lake District. There are no major servicing constraints in Clareview at the present.

Most of the land in this area is controlled by one land owner and requires a development proposal before serviced lots will be brought onto the market.

Southeast Sector Further development of single family lots in the Meadows area is linked to financing arrangements under the Revolving Trunk Fund. The past high interest rates and carrying costs still apply to the servicing of new lots. Therefore, a lot cannot be brought onto the market at a competitive price because of extra costs associated with the Trunk Fund.

However, there are no physical problems to

development if the financial aspects can be resolved. The present trunk lines are sufficient to carry increased servicing demand and could connect to the present lateral service lines if required.

Southwest Sector At present, the Kaskitayo area has no servicing problems. Both sanitary sewer and water lines are adequate to meet any immediate demands.

It appears that financing problems could arise in the future since there will be a need for a

6

sanitary sewer line to connect the Twin Brooks area as development proceeds.

Basically, the problem is that a developer has to start a project indicating the access roadways in order that servicing (specifically, an upgraded access road, front-ending of sanitary sewer lift station) can follow the proposed designs.

The Riverbend area has sufficient servicing capacity for 5 to 10 years of development.

West Sector The Grange area in the West sector has no immediate future servicing problems because of an apparent lack of interest to develop in this area, but the DonsdaleLessard area will need a sanitary sewer extension in the near future (2-3 years).

The Lewis Farms area is still in the planning stages and may not have any development for several years. A major issue to bring servicing into the Lewis Farms area is the high cost of erossing the RDA. CONCLUSIONS

The 1986 residential staging information shows a paradox: there is a surplus of residential lots in the city overall, but potential shortages of vacant, serviced single family lots below the GMP target levels could be evident in all City sectors except the Southeast and Northeast by the end of 1987.

When the 1987 housing absorption rates are applied and the limited amounts of new housing servicing activity are added, the results indicate more than a 20 year supply for each housing type in the city.

Single family lots compose 54% of the

overall supply, ground related multiples make up 20% and apartment units make up 26%.of the total city-wide inventory. (Table 4, p.11).

There could be a potential shortage of serviced single family lots by the end of 1987 in the North, West and Southwest sectors. Even though this may be the situation, factors such as cost constraints hinder new development until the source and rates of funding are resolved. As well, both developers and the municipal and provincial governments must resolve some of their present issues concerning priority areas of development and the design layouts for major sewer connections to different areas of the city. All of these factors contribute in determining the level of present and future lot supplies.

Semi-annual monitoring will be undertaken by the Long Range Planning Branch to assess the situation. If you have any questions about the report, please call Ed Egyedy at 428-3572.

7

MAP 2

CITY OF EDMONTON RESIDENTIAL AREA STRUCTURE PLAN AREAS JANUARY 1, 1985

II II

i'

U

CASTLE DOWNS

EXTENSION

E

RLAKE

DISTRICT

.

THE PALISADES STLE DOWNS

PILCTSOUND "

II

!I• RIVERAVN

I I

7

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TEEAW

AVC

ELE ~ HEIGHTSam~

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MLED

$TIN BROOKS

II

8

Table 2 CITY OF EDMONTON HOUSING STARTS ACTUAL AND FORECAST

BY YEAR AND BY CITY SECTOR

I

Housing Type

19861

Average

19872

19882

19892

19902

19912

80 0 0 80

46 2 2 50

41 2 2 45

51 2 2 55

54 3 3 60

59 3 3 65

49 3 3 .55

478 0 0 478

504 13 13 530

534 23 23 580

596 37 37 670

626 47 47 720

694 61 61 816

591 36 36 663

247 0 0 247

280 5 5 290

286 12 12 310

325 20 20 365

340 25 25 390

376 33 33 442

320 20 20 360

435 90 0 525

560 15 15 590

598 26 26 650

671 42 42 755

704 53 53 810

780 69 69 918

661 42 42 745

SS

456

542

575

650

678

752

640

GRM APT TOTAL

0 0 456

14 14 570

25 25 625

40 40 730

51 51 780

66 66 884

39 39 718

Annual Forecast 1987-1991

NORTHEAST SS GRM APT TOTAL NORTH SS GRM APT TOTAL SOUTHEAST SS GRM APT TOTAL SOUTHWEST SS GRM APT TOTAL WEST

Note: Sources:

SS-Singles, Semi's; GRM-Ground Related Multiples; APT-Apartments I Actual Data - CMHC housing starts for 1986 2 Forecast Data - Corporate Forecasting Group, Planning and Building Department Forecast Starts 1987-1991.

9

m

so

-m

m

-m

ml

a

.-

Table 3 POTENTIAL DUELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR (Measured to end of December 31,1986) CITY SECTOR

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED TOTAL APT GRM SS

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) TOTAL APT GRM SS

RAN LAND INAPPROVED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRN SS

SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRN

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS TOTAL APT GRM SS

NORTHEAST

214

1,240

1,073

2,527

0

0

0

0

6,886

2,308

2,297

11,491

0

0

0

0

7,100

3,548

3,370

14,018

NORTH

576

290

314

1,180

0

0

0

0

16,183

8,044

7,478

31,705

0

0

0

0

16,759

8,334

7,792

32,885

SOUTHEAST

1,611

1,369

6,580

9,560

0

0

0

0

10,370

3,473

3,473

17,316

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

17,658

6,095

10,600

34,353

SOUTHWEST

931

895

1,606

3,432

0

0

0

0

4,506

1,369

1,619

7,494

9,910

885

3,191

13,986

15,347

3,149

6,416

24,912

6,256 19,332 4,835 27,171 5,260 17,076 2,720 590 590 1,540 0 0 0 0 3,485 2,363 406 716 WEST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 1986 76,196 27,382 8,573 48,634 7,398 32,663 39,485 15,784 15,457 70,726 0 0 0 0 4,200 11,936 20,184 4,048 UNITS

7,788

33,376

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Market Report,1987 Socio-Economic Forecast Report 1987-1992 CHHC,Housing Starts 1986 $All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded

35,966 139,544

M

MM

m

-

-

l

M

-a

Table 4 POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR (Forecased to end of December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED TOTAL APT GRH SS

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) TOTAL APT GRH SS

RAN LAND INAPPROVED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRM SS

SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRN

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS TOTAL APT GRN SS

NORTHEAST

228

1,238

1,071

2,537

0

0

0

0

6,826

2,308

2,297

11,431

0.

0

0

0

7,054

3,546

3,368

13,960

NORTH

227

277

301

805

0

0

0

0

16,028

8,044

7,478

31,550

0

0

0

0

16,255

8,321

7,779

32,355

SOUTHEAST

1,451

1,364

6,575

9,390

0

0

0

0

10,250

3,473

3,473

17,196

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

17,378

6,090

10,595

34,063

SOUTHNEST

651

880

1,591

3,122

0

0

0

0

4,226

1,369

1,619

7,214

9,910

885

3,191

13,986

14,787

3,134

6,401

24,322

6,242 18,790 4,835 27,171 5,260 17,076 2,160 590 590 980 0 0 0 0 3,475 2,349 392 734 WEST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL 1987 74,264 27,333 8,573 48,634 7,398 32,663 38,310 15,784 15,457 69,551 0 0 0 O 4,151 11,887 19,329 3,291 UNITS

7,774

32,806

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Narket Report,1987 Socio-Econouic Forecast Report 1987-1992 CHC,Housing Starts 1986 *All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded

35,917 137,514

Table 5 POTENTIAL DUELLING UNITS NORTHEAST SECTOR (Forecasted For December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR NORTHEAST Clareview, Hermitage, Steele Heights

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED TOTAL APT GRN SS

214

1,240

1,073

2,527

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) TOTAL APT GRN SS

0

0

0

0

RAM LAND IN APPROVED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRM $S

SS

1,851

0

1,097

377

377

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRM

0

0

0

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS TOTAL APT GRH SS

1,311

1,617

4,378

1,450

9,640 1,920 1,931 5,789 0 0 0 0 9,640 1,920 1,931 5,799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pilot Sound --------- --- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2,297-- 11,491 ----- 70 ----- 0----- 0----- 0----7,100-- 3,548 --3,370-- 14,019 ---0 0--- 6,996 -- 2,309 0 ---- 0--1986 -TOTAL$S--- 214-- 1,240 ---1,073 ---2,527 -----

MINUS Starts to end 1987**

46

2

2

50

minus Servicing end 1987 60 .................. :....................

Net Reduction inLot Supply 0

0

60 .......................................

46

2

50

2

Net Addition inLot Supply

PLUS Servicing end 1987*$*

60

0

0

60

1987 TOTAL

228

1,238

1,071

2,537

..............................

.......................................

0

0

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Market Report,1997 CNHC,Housing Starts 1986 Socio-Economic Forecast Report 1987-1992 $All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded **1987 Building Starts and Servicing are Forecast Estimates *51987 Servicing isDeducted From the Raw Land Inventory

0

0

6,926

2,308

2,297

11,431

0

0

0

0

60

0

0

7,114

3,546

3,368

60 14,028

Table 6 POTENTIAL DUELLING UNITS NORTH SECTOR (Forecasted For December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR NORTH

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED SS GRM APT TOTAL

Lake District

374

84

Castle Downs

202

206 0

0

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) SS GRN APT TOTAL

RAM LAND IN APPROVED ASP'S SS. GRM APT TOTAL

SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S GRN APT TOTAL

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS SS GRM APT TOTAL

458

0

0

0

0

7.325

2,689

3,405

13,419

0

0

0

0

7,699

2,773

3,405

13,877

314

722

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

202

206

314

722

0

0

0

0

0

0

3,273

2,840

1,710

7,823

0

0

0

0

3,273

2,840

1,710

7,923

Palisades 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,585 2,515 2,363 10,463 .0 0 0 0 5,585 2,515 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1986 TOTAL$ 576 290 314 1,180 0 0 0 0 16,183 8,044 7,478 31,705 0 0 0 0 16,759 8,334

2,363

10,463

7,792

32,885

Castle Downs Ex

MINUS Starts to end 19879s

0

504

13

13

530

Minus Servicing end 1987 ......................................

155

Net Reduction inLot Supply 0

0

155 ......................................

659

13

13

685

PLUS Net Addition inLot Supply Servicing end 1987* 155 0 0 155 ..............................................................................

155 0 0 155 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1987 TOTAL 227 277 301 805 0 0 0 0 16,028 8,044 7,478 31,550 0 0 0 0 16,255 8,321 7,779 32,355 Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Market Report,1987 Socio-Economic Forecast Report 1987-1992 CMHC,Housing Starts 1986 *All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity is Included 2*1987 Building Starts and Servicing are Forecast Estimates **1987 Servicing isDeducted From the Raw Land Inventory

Table 7 POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS SOUTHEAST SECTOR (Forecasted For December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR SOUTHEAST Nillwoods The Headows Ellerslie

Nest

1986 TOTALS

MINUS Starts to end 1987**

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED APT TOTAL SS GRH

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) GRM APT TOTAL SS

RAN LAND IN APPROVED ASP'S GRH APT TOTAL SS

SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S GRM APT TOTAL

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS GRM APT TOTAL SS

1,482

1,369

6,580

9,431

0

0

0

0

432

161

161

754

0

0

0

0

1,914

1,530

6,741

10,185

129

0

0

129

0

0

0

0

9,938

3,312

3,312

16,562

0

0

0

0

10,067

3,312

3,312

16,691

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

1,369

6,580

9,560

0

0

0

0

10,370

3,473

3,473

17,316

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

17,658

6,095

10,600

34,353

1,611

280

5

5

290

Minus Servicing end 1987 120 ......................................

Net Reduction inLot Supply 0

0

120 ......................................

400

5

5

410

Net Addition inLot Supply

PLUS Servicing end 1987*0

120

0

0

120

1987 TOTAL

1,451

1,364

6,575

9,390

..............................................................................

0

0

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Market Report,1987 Socio-Economic Forecast Report 1987-1992 CMHC,Housing Starts 1986 $All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded *$1987 Building Starts and Servicing are Forecast Estimates *01987 Servicing isDeducted From the Raw Land Inventory

0

0

10,250

3,473

3,473

17,196

5,677

1,253

547

7,477

120

0

0

120

17,378

6,090

10,595

34,063

Table 8 SECTOR POTENTIAL DUELLING UNITS SOUTHWEST (Forecasted For December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR SOUTHMEST

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED TOTAL APT GRM SS

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) TOTAL APT GRM SS

RAW LAND IN APPROVED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRH SS

SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRN

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS TOTAL APT GRM SS

Riverbend

700

479

0

1,179

0

0

0

0

2,992

865

1,115

4,972

0

0

0

0

3,692

1,344

1,115

6,151

Kaskitayo

231

416

1,606

2,253

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

231

416

1,606

2,253

Twin Brooks

0

0

0

-

0

0

0

0

0

1,514

504

504

2,522

0

0

0

0

1,514

504

504

2,522

Teruillegar

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9,130

625

12,686

9,130

625

2,931

12,686

260 780 1,300 260 260 780 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Blacknud ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3,149 15,347 3,191 13,986 895 9,910 7,494 1,619 1,369 4,506 0 0 0 0 3,432 1,606 895 931 1986 TOTAL*

260

1,300

6,416

24,912

MINUS Starts to end 1987s'

560

15

15

590

minus Servicing end 1987 280 ....... ...............................

2,931

Net Reduction inLot Supply 0

0

280 .......................................

840

15

870

15

Net Addition inLot Supply

PLUS Servicing end 19 7s

280

0

1987 TOTAL

651

880

0 1,591

280 3,122

........................ . ...................................

0

0

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Market Report,1987 Socio-Econoeic Forecast Report 1987-1992 CMHC,Housing Starts 1986 *All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded $*1997 Building Starts and Servicing are Forecast Estimates *$1987 Servicing isDeducted From the Rau Land Inventory

0

0

4,226

1,369

1,619

7,214

9,910

885

3,191

13,986

280

0

14,787

3,134

280 6,401

24,322

Table 9 POTENTIAL DMELLING UNITS NEST SECTOR (Forecasted For December 31,1987) CITY SECTOR NEST

VACANT SERVICED SUBDIVIDED TOTAL APT GRH SS

VACANT SUBDIVIDED (Not Serviced) TOTAL APT GRM SS

PDU INAUTHORIZED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRN

TOTAL POTENTIAL UNITS TOTAL APT GRM SS

RAN LAND INAPPROVED ASP'S TOTAL APT GRO SS

SS

2,720

0

0

0

0

2,256

996

2,953

6,205

0

0

0

0

1,540

590

590

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4,827

2,016

2,586

9,429

4,827

2,016

2,586

9,429

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6,747

2,249

2,249

11,245

6,747

2,249

2,249

11,245

995 5,502 0 6,497 995 5,502 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Enoch ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6,256 19,332 4,835 27,171 5,260 17,076 2,720 590 590 1,540 0 0 0 0 3,485 2,363 406 716 1986 TOTAL$

0

6,497

7,788

33,376

2,363

716

406

Lemis Fares

0

0

0

Parkland Grange

0

0

0

NJP

3,485

Hinus

MINUS Starts to end 1987*5

Servicing

542

14

14

570

......................................

end 1987 560

Net Reduction inLot Supply 0

0

560 ......................................

1,102

14

1,130

14

Net Addition inLot Supply

PLUS Servicing end 1987 *

560

0

0

560

1987 TOTAL

734

392

2,349

3,475

......................................

.......................................

0

0

Sources: Corporate Forecasting Group Status of Residential Land Report,1986 Housing Harket Report,1987 Socio-Economic Forecast Report 1987-1999 CNHC,Housing Starts 1986 *All 1986 Servicing and Redistricing Activity isIncluded * 1987 Building Starts and Servicing are Forecast Estimates S*1987 Servicing isDeducted From the Raw Land Inventory

0

0

980

590

590

2,160

17,076

5,260

4,835

27,171

560

0

0

560

18,790

6,242

7,774

32,806

Table 10 INVENTORY OF SUBDIVIDED AND SERVICED LOTS IN YEARS USING ACTUAL 1986 AND FORECASTED 1987 AND 1987-1991 ANNUAL ABSORPTION RATES SECTOR

19872

19861

1987-19912

NORTHEAST SS GRM APT TOTAL

2.7 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

5.0 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

4.7 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

1.2 yrs.

20+ 20+ 2.5

0.5 yrs.

20+ 20+ 1.5

0.4 yrs.

7.7 8.4 1.2

1.6 yrs.

20+ 20+ 7.6

1.4 yrs.

20+ 20+ 6.1

1.1 yrs.

10.1 20+ 4.8

2.1 yrs.

10.1 20+ 6.5

1.2 yrs.

20+ 20+ 5.3

1.0 yrs.

20+ 20+ 4.2

6.6 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

5.2 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

4.5 yrs.

20+ 20+ 20+

NORTH SS GRM APT TOTAL WEST SS GRM APT TOTAL SOUTHWEST SS GRM APT TOTAL SOUTHEAST SS GRM APT TOTAL Note: Sources:

SS-Singles, Semi's; GRM-Ground Related Multiples; APT-Apartments Actual Data - CMHC housing starts for 1986 2 Forecast Data - Corporate Forecasting Group, Planning and Building Department Forecast Starts 1987-1991.

Example:

The inventory figure is calculated by dividing the presently serviced lot supply at the end of 1987 (228 units) from Table 5 by the forecasted 1987 housing starts (46 units) from Table 2. Similar calculations were undertaken for all sectors using the respective figures.

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