Q2 2025 Quarterly Aftermarket Dashboard
Summary Report
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q2 2025 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, EVC Vehicle Sales Report, FQ SME Report June 2025, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Australian Petroleum Statistics, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting, FQ Consumer Tracker, AAAA Critical Trends Survey 2025
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Business confidence dropped 6 points from the previous period, suggesting near-term caution, but the year-overyear improvement indicates underlying resilience compared to mid-2024 challenges.
Alongside this, consumer confidence continues to strengthen, while the household spending index has now reached 147. The strong household spending environment bodes well for consumerfacing aftermarket businesses.
The data suggests a "twospeed" environment where businesses are taking a wait-and-see approach despite improved annual trends, while consumers remain confident and actively spending.
fuel prices
Source: Australian Petroleum Statistics, Australian Institute of Petroleum Weekly Petrol/ Diesel Reports
Fuel prices have edged higher, although remain below year-ago levels. This reflects typical winter demand patterns and global oil price movements.
Fuel consumption patterns do however reveal diverging trends. Regular petrol volumes are down 8% yearover-year, while premium petrol sales strengthened to 460.30 million litres. Diesel consumption has also surged, indicating robust commercial activity.
This suggests consumers are maintaining driving habits despite higher prices, with premium fuel growth pointing to continued discretionary spending among higher-income segments. Meanwhile, strong diesel volumes support ongoing demand for commercial vehicle maintenance services.
vehicle sales
VFACTS Reports, EVC Vehicle Sales Report, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data
Sales momentum continued across both new and used vehicles in June, with new sales reaching 127.4K units (up 6% year-over-year) and used jumping 10% to 212K units. The Ford Ranger maintained its dominant position across both markets, reinforcing its appeal to Australian buyers.
The powertrain transition accelerated further, with Zero and Low Emission Vehicles capturing 27% share (vs. 23% in June 2024). This growth mainly however stems from hybrid and plugin hybrid rather than pure electric vehicles, indicating consumer preference for transitional technologies.
This creates a range of aftermarket opportunities, as traditional ICE vehicles continue dominating the vehicle parc while electrified models introduce new servicing requirements.
automotive inflation
monthly business turnover index (5year index)*
quarterly consumer/ producer price index (5-year index)**
>5% change vs. YoY
*The ABS Business Turnover Index tracks changes in business turnover for large businesses ($20M+ annual turnover) based on monthly BAS lodgments, helping us understand trends around industry economic performance. **The Consumer and Producer price indexes then reflect changes in the costs of parts and materials from suppliers (i.e. input costs).
Source: ABS Statistics; Monthly Business Turnover Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index
Business turnover increased in May, with retail operations up to 161.04 and wholesaling climbing to 162.16. However, retail performance remains down YoY, while wholesaling has strengthened annually, indicating diverging dynamics.
Input cost pressures also continue to build across the sector, with spare parts and accessories prices up 6.7% year-over-year, while vehicle maintenance and repair costs increased 4.8% annually. Manufacturing costs have also risen steadily, up 4.9% from the previous year.
While recent turnover growth suggests businesses are successfully passing through some cost increases, the rising input costs and mixed revenue performance indicates continued margin pressure across the aftermarket.
MVIS Service & Repair Attitudes
MVIS vehicle service & repair attitudes
Consumers should have the right to choose who services their vehicle
Independent workshops should have the ability to diagnose and repair vehicles easily
Independent repairers should have equal access to telematics data
Workshop operators demonstrate strong support for consumer choice principles, with 94% believing consumers should have the right to choose who services their vehicle.
Independent workshop access to diagnostic tools and telematics data also receives overwhelming support from the sector, with 92% and 91% backing. This highlights the industry's recognition that competitive repair markets require equal access to vehicle information and diagnostic capabilities.
This data reveals a broad industry consensus around the importance of maintaining choice and competition in vehicle servicing, with these conversations critical to ensuring that independent repairers can continue effectively serving Australian motorists.
Top Two Box (Agree)
Top Two Box (Agree)
Top Two Box (Agree)
MVIS vehicle service & repair attitudes
Restricting access to vehicle information means consumers pay a higher price
Restricting access to vehicle information puts independent workshops at a disadvantage
It is difficult to access the vehicle repair information that we need
Source: AAAA Critical Trends Research 2025
Question C1. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements about access to vehicle service and repair information? Base: Total Sample n=220
The practical consequences of restricted information access are clearly evident in workshop experiences, with 90% reporting that limited access ultimately results in higher costs for consumers.
The competitive disadvantage facing independent workshops is also acknowledged by 94% of operators, while 81% report ongoing difficulties accessing essential repair information. This underscores the real-world impact of information access barriers on both business operations and consumer outcomes, reinforcing the need for policy frameworks that address current gaps and ensure competitive repair markets can continue to function effectively as vehicle technology evolves.
Top Two Box (Agree)
Top Two Box (Agree)
Top Two Box (Agree)
MVIS awareness & impact
What
(i.e.
Source: AAAA Critical Trends Research 2025
Question D6. And what impact has the MVIS Law had on the following?
Base: Total Sample n=220
MVIS awareness has reached strong penetration across the sector, with 87% of workshops familiar with the scheme and 63% actively using it. The scheme's practical benefits are also evident, with 65% of workshops reporting positive impact on reducing wasted technician time during fault diagnosis. Only 18% report negative experiences, suggesting the system is delivering meaningful operational improvements for the majority of users.
While adoption levels are encouraging, the 25% of aware workshops not yet using MVIS represents significant untapped potential. As vehicle complexity and diagnostic challenges keep increasing, bridging this gap will be crucial in order to maximise the benefits and ensure efficient repair processes.
Aftermarket Servicing Demand
car parc forecast by vehicle age
The Australian car parc is forecast to grow steadily from 21.3 million vehicles in 2024 to 24.3 million by 2031, while simultaneously aging from an average of 11.4 years to 12.3 years. This dual trend of growth and aging reflects slower fleet turnover and extended vehicle lifecycles.
The 10+ year segment will drive much of this growth, expanding from 10.24 million to 12.06 million vehicles, while ‘younger’ vehicle volumes remain more consistent over time.
This aging parc profile creates significant aftermarket opportunities, as older vehicles typically require more frequent maintenance, repairs, and component replacements.
aftermarket forecast by vehicle age
Estimated aftermarket service demand each year by combining car parc forecasts with data from the FQ Consumer Tracker about where drivers last serviced their vehicles.
This aging car parc translates directly into expanding aftermarket service demand, with the addressable market projected to grow from 13.9 million in 2024 to 15.6 million by 2031 as vehicles transition from dealership to independent servicing channels.
The 10+ year segment will again account for most of this growth (in line with the overall expansion), expanding from 7.95 million to 9.47 million vehicles actively seeking aftermarket services. In contrast, newer vehicles will continue to largely (but not exclusively) remain within dealership networks.
The concentration of growth in older vehicle segments supports sustained demand for both routine maintenance and more complex repairs, creating opportunities for workshops to expand capacity and service offerings.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact: Ben Selwyn Amelia McVeigh Director Account Director Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0420 248 689
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333