Q1 2025 Quarterly Aftermarket Dashboard
Summary Report
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q1 2025 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, FQ SME Report March 2025, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, pricemycar.com.au, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Despite a significant level of turbulence in the global economy, quarterly business confidence results have remained largely in line with previous periods, while consumer confidence is well up on this quarter last year.
With that said, we would expect to see a downward correction in both metrics given the recently announced US tariffs and upcoming Australian election.
This suggests a higher level of caution around business decisions will be important, with a level of volatility likely in the months ahead. AAAA members can track this on an ongoing basis using the digital version of the AAAA dashboard.
fuel prices
Source: Australian Petroleum Statistics, Australian Institute of Petroleum Weekly Petrol/ Diesel Reports
Fuel prices in Australia are easing, with petrol down 10.5 cents per litre and diesel dropping 15 cents year-over-year. This offers relief to both consumers and businesses (especially in sectors like logistics and transport). Whether this indicates a sustained trend, or an isolated adjustment does however remain uncertain.
Despite this, regular petrol volumes have also seen a notable decrease over the past 12 months, suggesting that falling prices have not led to increased driving activity. In contrast, sales of premium petrol and diesel have remained constant over this period, potentially reflecting sustained activity among businesses and consumers with greater discretionary spending capacity.
vehicle sales
New vehicle sales edged up in March 2025, with 111.6K units sold, representing a 2% increase on the same month last year. However, year-todate sales (296K) still trail 2024’s pace (304.5K).
The Ford Ranger held onto its top-selling position for the month, but Toyota’s RAV4 has taken the lead on the YTD rankings, setting up another close contest between these two models.
The standout trend continues to be the rise of Zero and Low Emission Vehicles (ZLEVs), which accounts for almost 30% of sales in March. This is however primarily driven by hybrid and plug-in hybrid models, which more than doubled year-on-year to 23.8K units. In contrast, the slowing Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market fell to 8.4K, down from 10.5K in March 2024.
automotive inflation
monthly business turnover index (5year index)*
quarterly consumer/ producer price index (5-year index)**
>5% change vs. YoY
Inflation remains a key challenge for the Australian automotive sector, with parts and accessory costs into retail well up year on year, and the cost of manufacturing motor vehicles and parts also increasing.
Looking at business turnover, indexed performance has also decreased since the December quarter, putting it back in line with performance in January 2024.
This highlights the continuing difficulty facing businesses, as they juggle increasing costs and seek to maintain profitability in an increasingly uncertain operating environment.
*The ABS Business Turnover Index tracks changes in business turnover for large businesses ($20M+ annual turnover) based on monthly BAS lodgments, helping us understand trends around industry economic performance. **The Consumer and Producer price indexes then reflect changes in the costs of parts and materials from suppliers (i.e. input costs).
Source: ABS Statistics; Monthly Business Turnover Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index
Auto Imports & Exports
Top 10 Countries for Auto Imports
2023-24 2022-23
China and the USA extended their dominance as Australia’s top sources of automotive imports in FY23-24, with China jumping to $2.52 billion (from $2.30B) and the USA climbing to $1.80 billion (from $1.56B). Their continued rise reflects the resilient trade ties with these markets.
Germany ($647M), Japan ($577M), and Thailand ($497M) remained stable, rounding out the top five, and maintaining their strategic importance in the local automotive supply chain.
Further down the list, momentum is building among emerging suppliers:
▪ Mexico grew export volumes to Australia by 15% to $353M
▪ Sweden ($198M) and Italy ($163M) also posted strong growth, up from $180M and $145M respectively.
▪ The UK was however the only top-ten country to decline, slipping from $181M to $180M
This highlights the diversity of Australia's automotive import base, and the opportunities for new entrants in this market.
Top 10 Countries for Auto Exports
Source:
2023-24 2022-23
Despite a year-on-year sales decline, Toyota remained the top-selling car brand in Australia in 2023, outperforming any individual competitor two to one.
Mazda continues to hold second spot with 100,008 vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32% sales increase, overtaking both Kia and Hyundai as it captured 87,800 sales.
The biggest loser in the top 10 was Mitsubishi, dropping two spots as its sales fell by 18% to 63,511.
Australia’s auto exports rose again in FY23–24, led by the USA ($375M) and New Zealand ($372M), which remain the country’s top trading partners. The UAE held third with $180M, showing continued demand from the Middle East.
The standout gains came from Papua New Guinea (up 29% to $120M) and Japan, which surged 56% to $87M. Other movers included the UK ($58M) and China ($41M), with both showing renewed momentum.
France was the only major market to decline, halving from $81M to $39M, its sharpest drop in recent years.
While most markets are growing, looming US tariffs in 2025 could disrupt export flows to Australia’s largest buyer, with potential downstream effects on aftermarket supply and pricing.
Despite these concerns (and the challenging French market), the data points to a diversified and resilient export base, with traditional strongholds holding firm and secondary markets showing promising growth.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact: Ben Selwyn Amelia McVeigh Director Account Director Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0420 248 689
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333