Tajikistan: Climate Facts and Policy by Zoï Environment Network

TA J I K I S TA N

CLIMATE FACTS AND POLICY 8 MILLION tCO2e 1 TONNES PER CAPITA

POLICIES AND PROCESSES Policy framework

National climate change action plan (2003, requires update) National climate change and health strategy (2011) National adaptation strategy 2016-2030 (pending approval) National strategies and programmes on glaciers, energy efficiency, small-scale hydropower, disaster risk reduction, forests Limited consideration of climate change concerns in legislation and sub-laws

2030 targets and INDC

Mitigation Base year and GHG emissions level: 1990, 25.5 million tonnes Unconditional target 2030: not to exceed 80-90 per cent of 1990 level,1.7-2.2 tCO2e per capita Conditional target 2030: not to exceed 65-75 per cent of 1990 level, 1.2-1.7 tCO2e per capita Adaptation priorities Agriculture, irrigation and water systems Power engineering and industrial facilities Transport and residential infrastructure Economy-wide climate resilience and disaster risk reduction Adaptation of globally significant biodiversity to climate change Monitoring and conservation of glaciers and water resources Occupational safety, maternity and childhood protection in a warming climate

8.5

926 US $

MILLION POPULATION

44%

PER CAPITA GDP

OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS

Sources: 2010 national GHG inventory data submitted to UNFCCC; latest population, energy and economic data from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

GHG inventory of all sectors and gases

Third national communication to UNFCCC Fourth national communication to UNFCCC under preparation (UNDP-GEF) First biennial update report to UNFCCC under preparation (UNDP-GEF) GHG emissions from coal power, cement production and agriculture expected to grow No advanced MRV and GHG scenario modelling established yet

CLIMATE ACTIONS Low overall and per capita GHG emissions

Strong decline in the energy-use sector, growth in the share of non-CO2 emissions Plans for large and small hydropower and coal-power development Significant role of land use and forests in GHG balance

Considerable action on adaptation

Major international investments to agriculture, climate resiliency of hydropower and disaster risk reduction

Regional actions

Promoter of global and regional freshwater initiatives Environment, climate change and hydrology cooperation with Afghanistan

CLIMATE FINANCE Limited national resources

Sufficient for soft measures (legal, institutional) but inadequate for tangible action

Significant role of international climate investments

Focus on climate adaptation and risk management, reliable power supply, and rural energy access US $150-200 million in loans and grants for climate-relevant actions

Pilot Program on Climate Resilience

Climate resilience of the energy sector, institutional capacity-building, hydrometeorological services, rural livelihoods

EBRD and EIB funding

Kairakkum hydropower station rehabilitation and climate-proofing Solid waste management in the main cities of Tajikistan Public transport and improved water supply Rehabilitation of power network

World Bank â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Green Climate Fund

Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB)

UNDP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GEF

National reporting to UNFCCC, green rural energy development

K A Z A K H S T A N

Tashkent

Shardara

Angren

Shardara Res.

K A Z A K H S T A N

Almaliq Tashkent ya Dar Syr

U Z B E K I S T A N

Almaliq

Istaravshan

Ayni Istaravshan

Panjakent

Zaravshan

Kayrakum Res.

Isfana Khujand

Syr

TJK Isfara

Isfana

TJK Garm

Dushanbe

Khin gob

Vakh sh

Nurek Res. Khing ob Rogun

Vakh sh

Danghara Qala-i Khumb Kulob Vahdat Nurek ilsu Res. K iz

P a

Kokcha

Feyzabad

P a

Kunduz

a na

Gunt

mi Pa Yashil-Kul

j Pan

A F G H A KNokchaI S T A N uz

Lake Sarez Gunt Yashil-Kul

r Ba Khorog

Kulob ils u

KarakulM urgh a

Lake Sarez

Khorog

r ya

C H I N A

Garm Qala-i Khumb

Vahdat

iz Qurghonteppa K

r ya

Kofarnihon

Surkh Surkh anda anda rya rya

Kofarnihon

Zaravshan Yavan Rogun

Qurghonteppa Danghara

Termiz Mazar-e Sharif

hob Surk

M uksu

C H I N A

Suu Kyzyl-

Feyzabad

Pa j Pan

bad

M urgha

P WAakhKan I S T A N 0

P A K I S T A N Chi tra l

Renewable energy installations and plans

Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas)

100 km

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

Fossil fuel energy installations and carbon emissions

0.5 - 1 less than 0.5

Murghab

Wakhan

Energy and emissions ad

0.5 - 1 Thermal power-plant (coal/oil/gas) less than 0.5 CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year:

Renewable energy installations and plans

CO2 emissions from thermal power plants, million tons per year:

Murghab

A F G H A N I S T A N

uz Kh Mazar-e Sharif Fossil fuel energy installations and carbon a na Kunduzemissions b

u Aqs

Denov

M uksu

Wuqia

Karakul

Yavan

Dushanbe

Termiz

hob Surk

Kashgar

Wuqia

u Aqs

Denov

Kashgar

Sary-Tash

Pan j

Dushanbe

Osh Sary-Tash

UZB

Pan j

Panjakent

Y R G Y Z S T A N

K YKyzRyl-SuGu Y Z S T A N

UZB Batken

Ayni

Dushanbe

Chatyr-Kol

Andĳan

Chi tra l

Jizzax

Khujand

OshJalal-Abad

U Z B E K I S T A N

ry Isfara Da

ya Dar Syr

Aydar Lake Jizzax

Angren

Kayrakum Res.

Aydar Lake Shardara Res.

Marghilan Kokand Namangan Ferghana Ferghana Valley K Marghilan UZB Kokand UZB Batken Ferghana

Chatyr-Kol

Andĳan

Ferghana Valley

ar y rD

Shardara

Jalal-Abad

Namangan

100 km

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

Wind park Installed capacity: Wind park

Solar park

Solar park Less than 50 MW

Hydropower plant

Installed capacity: Less than 50 MW

Policies and institutions Tajikistan has not yet developed comprehensive legislation on climate issues and in general climate is not yet reflected in environmental, air pollution or energy laws beyond the national climate change action plan (2003) and the national climate and health strategy (2011). A national climate adaptation strategy is in its final stages of development. As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, Tajikistan is implementing several project-based climate actions with donor support focusing on climate resiliency. Suffering from energy shortages and limited energy access, Tajikistan consistently expresses the importance of hydropower and energy security and the need to overcome an energy crisis in its international public statements. To help the country respond more effectively to the energy crisis, UNDP has established an energy crisis early warning system.

As a landlocked and impoverished mountain country acting as a water tower and possessing large potential hydropower resources, Tajikistan shares interests with similar mountain countries, especially its closest neighbours – Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan – and sees itself as part of an interest group with respect to international climate change processes. The promotion of a global fund for the preservation of glaciers is a particularly high-level interest in the country. The leading authorities with climate decision-making responsibilities include the Executive Office of the President (responsible for monitoring, coordination and supervision of line ministries), the Committee for Environmental Protection (focal point to GEF and GCF) and its Agency on Hydrometeorology (focal point to the UNFCCC). The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources is one of the key players in climate investments. NGOs are active promoters of innovations and international developments in domestic climate actions and policy though the climate change network - TajCCN. They often work on practical local activities, education and awareness.

K A Z A K H S T A N

Tashkent Angren

K A Z A K H S T A N

Tashkent Almaliq Angren

U Z B E K I S T A N Aydar Lake

U Z B E K I S T A N Jizzax

Istaravshan

Kayrakum Res.

Khujand Isfana

TJK Isfara

Isfana

TJK Garm

Zaravshan

Khin gob Garm

Rogun

Vahdat Danghara

Qurghonteppa K

Southern Tajikistan

C H I N A M u rg

hab

Murghab

P a m i r Ba

art

B Khorog

Kokcha

Feyzabad

A F G H A KNokchaI Feyzabad S T A N K

na b

Karakul

Lake Sarez

Khorog

Lake Sarez Gunt Yashil-Kul

M u rg

hab

Murghab

Gunt

ir Pa m Yashil-Kul

j Pan

Pa m j Pan

Impacts of climate change K

duz Kun

Areas mostshifts exposed to weather and climate risks Projected in seasonal hydrology and growing uncertainties of water availability

ir n

P WAakhKa I S T A N

A F G H A N I S T A N

h Mazar-e Sharif Projected shifts in seasonal hydrologyKunduz and growinga naba d uncertainties of water availability

Wakhan

100 km

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

P A K I S T A N 0

Chi tra l

Kunduz

C H I N A

P a m i r

Kulob

su izil

Karakul

Qurghonteppa Danghara Vakhsh

Surkh Surkh anda anda rya rya

M uksu

Qala-i Khumb Kulob

Nurek Res. ils u K iz

Southern Tajikistan

duz Kun

Termiz Sharif ryMazar-e a

hob Surk

Suu Kyzyl-

Wuqia

u Aqs

r ya

Kofarnihon

Termiz

Kofarnihon

M uksu

Pan j

Vakhsh

Nurek Res. Rogun

Denov

hob Surk

Kashgar

Sary-Tash

Wuqia

u Aqs

Dushanbe

Khin gob

Kashgar

Sary-Tash

UZB

Qala-i Khumb

Vahdat Denov

Y R G Osh Y Z S T A N

K YKyzRyl-SuGu Y Z S T A N

UZB Batken

Ayni

Zaravshan Dushanbe

Chatyr-Kol

Andĳan

Panjakent

Syr

Zaravshan

F e r g hFerghana ana Valley K Marghilan Kokand UZB UZB Batken Ferghana

Da Isfara

Istaravshan

Ayni

Khujand

Jalal-Abad Osh

Panjakent

Almaliq

ya Dar Syr

Jizzax

Kayrakum Res.

Kokand Namangan

ya Dar Syr

Aydar Lake

Ferghana Valley Marghilan

ar y rD

Shardara Res.

Chatyr-Kol

Andĳan

Pan j

Shardara

Jalal-Abad

Namangan

Chi tra l

Shardara Res.

Shardara

Environmentally sensitive and stressed regions

100 km

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, November 2015

Severe drought impacts Environmentally sensitive and stressed regions Reduction of ice cover Severe drought impacts

Areas most exposed to weather and climate risks Reduction of ice cover

Tajikistan scorecard Country’s share of global emissions

National climate policy actors

Country’s emissions per capita General climate action ambition

Committee for Environmental Protection Mitigation commitment: Emissions reduction

UNFCCC focal point: Agency on Hydrometeorology

Decoupling from population growth

GHG inventory: Project based, Climate Change Centre

Decoupling from economic growth

GCF focal point: Committee for Environmental Protection

Renewable energy

Policy leadership: Executive Office of the President,

Adaptation action

Million tonnes

Greenhouse gas emissions and projections for Tajikistan

30 25 80-90%

65-75% 15

5 0 -2.5

Projections 1990 Energy

1992

1994

1996

Industrial processes

1998 Agriculture

2000 Waste

2002

2004

2006

Land use change and forestry

2008

2010

2020 2030

Lower range

Higher range

Projections are based on Tajikstan’s INDC

Climate actions

Climate finance

Hydropower accounts for more than 95 per cent of the electricity generated in the country, which in combination with a low fossil fuel use makes Tajikistan a low-emission leader of Central Asia. Over the last decade, GHG emissions remained stable, but are expected to increase in the current decade. Recommendations and a scope for mitigation and adaptation activities are reflected in the national climate change action plan (2003).

As a result of its high vulnerability to climate change and its low adaptive capacity, Tajikistan was invited to participate in the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR). The budget of PPCR and other climate projects in Tajikistan grew to an estimated US $150 million in loans and grants, and funded activities in hydropower, agriculture, watershed management and other sectors. Tajikistan also receives adaptation support via the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) financed by the Green Climate Fund and the World Bank.

According to the most recent inventory of GHG emissions (20042010), the level of absolute and per capita emissions in Tajikistan remains the lowest in Central Asia (about 1 tonne CO2e per person). The current level of emissions as compared to 1990 (25 million tonnes of CO2e) has declined by two thirds (to 8 million tonnes of CO2e), due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union economy and to structural changes resulting from the transition to a market economy and independence. The most dramatic decline in GHG emissions occurred in the energy sector – a staggering reduction of more than 80 per cent – but not without socioeconomic and environmental consequences: high reliance on imported fossil fuels and their insecure supply creates major difficulties for businesses and the population at large. Coal mining and use, negligible in Tajikistan for 20 years, is starting to grow in the residential, industrial and power sectors with current levels estimated at 0.5 million tonnes/year. Tajikistan’s emissions profile differs from other Central Asian countries. In 1990, the energy sector dominated GHG emissions (almost 70 per cent of the total). From the late 1990s to the present, agriculture has been the main source of GHG emissions (60 per cent). More than 50 per cent of the cars in Tajikistan run on natural gas. Despite the country’s efforts to ensure a reliable emissions inventory, calculations vary from sector to sector, and the available statistical data are not comprehensive. Tajikistan signed the Paris Agreement in April 2016. Tajikistan’s INDC sets a 2030 target of a reduction to 80-90 per cent of 1990 emissions levels without external assistance, and a reduction to 65-75 per cent subject to substantial international funding. On adaption, the INDC outlines an ambitious set of initiatives the country is pursuing, but reports that national funding is insufficient to implement the measures.

Climate-related funding from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) has supported preparation of the national communications to UNFCCC, sustainable urban transport, development of smallscale hydropower, sustainable watershed management and agrobiodiversity adaptation. The EBRD has a diverse portfolio of projects in Tajikistan with a value of US $350 million. Ongoing EBRD projects include solid waste management in the main cities, the Kairakkum hydropower plant rehabilitation, public transport and water supply.

Sources of information for the scorecard National climate-related assessments and reports: National climate change action plan (2003). Third national communication to UNFCCC (2014), INDC (2015) Publications and information materials of Tajikistan’s Agency on Hydrometeorology, Tajik PPCR Secretariat, World Bank, CIFs, EBRD, UNECE Zoï expertise and interviews with stakeholders in Tajikistan This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

The designations employed and the presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or region or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.