Global Breakfast Drink Report 2016

zenithinternational 2016 Global Breakfast Drinks

Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market

September 2016

Research Note In undertaking its research for this report, Zenith has utilised its internal data library and global databases, alongside other third party sources and interviews with the industry. Throughout its on-going research, Zenith also depends upon the goodwill and co-operation of operators active in the marketplace, and, as such, seeks to achieve a high level of accuracy.

Liability This document contains information and may contain conclusions and recommendations. Every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate and that the opinions expressed are sound. However, Zenith International Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses resulting from decisions based on the information.

Important notice on distribution This report should not be quoted, referred to or transmitted to another party, in whole or in part, with out the prior written consent of Zenith International Ltd. Should you desire to release a copy of this report to another party for information purposes, we request you and the requesting party to indemnify Zenith International from any liability related to the report distribution. Such readers however will not be considered “users� of this report.

zenithinternational

Copyright All copyright in this document is reserved.

CONTENTS

The contacts at Zenith International in connection with this report are:

Juliette de Nettancourt Consultant Zenith International Ltd., UK

Tel: +44 1225 327934 jdenettancourt@zenithinternational.com Monika Fedor Consultant Zenith International Ltd., UK Tel: +44 1225 327936 mfedor@zenithinternational.com Esther Renfrew Market Intelligence Director Zenith International Ltd., UK Tel: +44 1225 327900 erenfrew@zenithinternational.com

Zenith International Ltd 7 Kingsmead Square Bath BA1 2AB United Kingdom T +44 (0) 1225 327900 F +44 (0) 1225 327901 www.zenithinternational.com

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Section

Page

1. Introduction

4

2. Breakfast cereal market

11

3. Liquid breakfast segment

21

4. Challenges and opportunities

31

5. Brand profiles

36

5.1 Brand profiles: Australia & New Zealand

37

5.2 Brand profiles: UK

47

5.3 Brand profiles: US

58

5.4 Brand profiles: China

65

5.5 Brand profiles: Brazil

72

5.6 Brand profiles: Rest of world

76

Page 3

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 1. Introduction

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 4

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market

Overview The aim of this report is to assess the evolution and latest developments in the breakfast drink sector, as well as identifying and summarising trends and new innovations in order to understand what opportunities exist for new product development.

Methodology In undertaking its research, Zenith International depends upon the goodwill and co-operation of firms in the marketplace to provide accurate figures on their activities and thus the market overall. However, as the breakfast drink category is still in the early phases of its product life cycle in Australia, USA and UK and has limited presence in many other countries, Zenith has generated best estimates from a combination of all industry sources. Therefore all figures presented should realistically be regarded as Zenith estimates. Yet, with the extent of crosschecking involved in the report and the industry’s assistance, Zenith believes a high level of accuracy has been achieved.

Report analysis A deep dive analysis of key markets, trends and developments, featuring brand profiles to benchmark against leading and innovative breakfast drinks worldwide, tracking recent innovation within the liquid breakfast category as well as investigating the future outlook of the market.

Breakfast drinks terminology A number of terms may be used to describe breakfast drinks in this report, including ready-to-drink breakfast (RTD breakfast), liquid breakfast, breakfast drinks and breakfast beverages.

Categories covered in this report:  Breakfast drinks Products profiled in this report contain features that span a number of trends shaping the future of the breakfast drink sector, including:  Health trends  Eating habits and lifestyle  Convenience

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 5

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market

Scope and Definition: Breakfast drink For the purpose of this report, Zenith has designed its research scope as follows: Any product which is marketed as “formulated supplementary food” aiming to replace a traditional meal (usually breakfast), with a liquid “on-the-go” meal, representing an optimum combination of cereals and milk and marketed as offering “the nutrition of a bowl of cereal and milk”.

We define the category using the following criteria:  Shelf-stable  Liquid  Dairy-based drink  High in protein and fibre  Contains added minerals and vitamins  Portable, on-the-go format  Contain cereals (with the exception of the US market as most of the products marketed as breakfast drinks do not include cereals) Exclusions: This report excludes:  Flavoured milk which does not contain added cereals  Powdered breakfast beverages  Breakfast fruit smoothies Coverage: This report includes an overview of the breakfast drink category, with an in-depth focus on the key markets of Australia, New Zealand, the UK and USA. The report also looks at other country markets where breakfast drinks have been introduced, most notably, Brazil and China. In addition, a variety of products from across the globe are profiled.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 6

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION The evolution of breakfast

The history of breakfast

Breakfast nowadays

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 7

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION Benefits of consuming breakfast

Benefits of breakfast  Commentary  Commentary  Commentary .

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 8

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION Nutritional recommendation Healthy breakfast:  Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

Nutrient

Adult 19-50

Adult 50+

Iron Zinc Vitamin A Folate Vitamin C Recommended daily intake for men

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 9

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION Nutritional value of key liquid breakfast brands Table 1: Nutritional value of key liquid breakfast brands Kellogg’s To Go Milk Chocolate

Sanitarium Weetabix On-TheUp&Go Choc Ice Go Chocolate

Serving size (ml) Calories (kcal) - calories from fat Total Fat

Cholesterol Sodium Potassium Total carbohydrate - Dietary fibre - Sugars - other carbohydrate Protein

Liquid breakfast nutrition:  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 10

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 2. Breakfast cereal market

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 11

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Definition

Cereals definition: According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), breakfast cereals are “foods prepared by swelling and roasting cereals or cereal products, e.g. corn flakes, puffed rice; cereals or maize, in grain form, precooked or otherwise prepared.”

As per FAO established CODEX Alimentarius, also known as the “Food Code”, breakfast cereals includes the following products: ready to eat cereals (e.g. granola, cold cereals), instant cereals (on-the-go breakfast) and hot cereals (e.g. porridge).

Breakfast cereals are split into two sub-categories: • Ready to eat (RTE) cold cereal includes any cereal that is consumed dry or with dairy/non-dairy milk (e.g. corn flakes, shredded wheat, toasted oat cereal); • Hot cereal includes oatmeal, instant oatmeal, hot wheat and other grain products that must be heated before eating.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 12

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Declining cereal market The cereal market

Company focus

 Commentary

Company

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

Company  Commentary  Commentary Table 2: Net sales of leading companies operating in the cereal industry Company

Company

Company

Company

 Commentary

Company

Net sales in 2015 (US$ million) Changes in net sales (%)

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 13

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Portfolio shift in the breakfast cereal market Portfolio shift  Commentary  Commentary

 Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 14

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company

 Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 15

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company

 Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 16

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company

 Commentary  Commentary

 Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 17

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company

 Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 18

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Changing consumer behaviour Eating breakfast  Commentary  Commentary Consumer eating habits

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 19

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Changing consumer behaviour Increasing alternatives to RTE breakfast

Breakfast on-the-go

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

Need for new product development  Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

Table 3: Percentage of population skipping breakfast on a daily basis UK

US

China

% of the population skipping breakfast

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 20

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 3. Liquid breakfast segment

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 21

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Overview of the liquid breakfast segment

Focus on liquid breakfast

Table 4: Market value in million, 2014-2016 2014e

 Commentary

Brand

 Commentary

Australia (AU$)

 Commentary

UK (£)

2015e

2016e

Table 5: Market volume in million litres, 2014-2015 2014

Brand

2015

2016

Australia UK

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 22

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Australian market analysis Table 6: Australia liquid breakfast value in AU$ (millions)

Table 7: Australia liquid breakfast market value in AU$ (millions)

200

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Company

100

Others

50 0 2011

2011

Brand

150

Total Value 2012

Sanitarium

2013

Others

2014

2015

2016

Table 9: Australia liquid breakfast market volume in million litres

Total market value

Table 8: Sanitarium consumption in Australia in million litres

Brand

2014

2015

2016

Company

2016 2015

Others

2014

Total Value

2013 2012 2011

 Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 23

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Australian market analysis Product positioning within the Australian market

Premium price Product  Commentary

Product image

Niche

Mass market

Product image

Product  Commentary

Sanitarium

Value price

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 24

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT UK market analysis Table 10: UK liquid breakfast market value in million £ Brand

2014

2015

Graph 1: UK market shares in 2016

2016

Brand

Brand 25%

25%

Brand Brand

Table 11: UK liquid breakfast market volume in million litres

25%

25%

Others Total value

Brand

Brand

Brand

Brand

Brand

Brand

Others

2014

2015

2016

Others Total volume

 Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 25

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT UK market analysis Product positioning within the UK market

Premium price Product  Commentary

Product image

Niche

Mass market

Product image

Product  Commentary

Value price

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 26

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT US market analysis

US market specifics

Key 2016 financial data:

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

Opportunities for breakfast drinks  Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

Consumer behaviour  Commentary  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 27

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT US market analysis Product positioning within the US market

Premium price Product  Commentary

Product image

Niche

Mass market

Product image

Product  Commentary

Value price

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 28

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT China

Changes in breakfast habits

Marketing

 Commentary

 Commentary

 Commentary

.

 Commentary

New product development  Commentary

 Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 29

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Brazil Health trends  Commentary  Commentary

Brazil flavoured milk consumption

 Commentary  Commentary

Opportunities for breakfast drinks  Commentary  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 30

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 4. Challenges and opportunities

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 31

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Global trends and developments within the liquid breakfast segment

• Commentary

Trends and developments

• Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Challenges and barriers

• Commentary

Insights and opportunities

Page 32

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Global trends and developments within the liquid breakfast segment Key emerging trends include: Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 33

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Challenges and barriers within the liquid breakfast segment Key challenges and barriers include: Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 34

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Insights and opportunities of the liquid breakfast segment Key insights and opportunities include: Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

Trend  Commentary

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 35

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED © Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5. Brand profiles

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 36

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.1 Brand profiles

Australia & New Zealand

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 37

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.1 BRAND PROFILES Australia & New Zealand

Brands in focus: Country

Company

Brand

Price per pack

Country

Company

Brand

AU$XX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 38

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.1 BRAND PROFILES Australia & New Zealand

Up&Go Gluten Free Sanitarium Health & Wellbeing, Australia Website: www.upandgo.com.au Product description: Sanitarium launched a gluten free liquid breakfast for the Australian and New Zealand market, capitalising on new health trends. The product is 98.5% fat free and provides half the recommended daily calcium for an adult.

Launch date: October 2015 Variants: Choc ice, and vanilla ice

Ingredients: Filtered water, skim milk powder, cane sugar, corn maltodextrin, soy protein, vegetable oils (sunflower, canola), inulin, hi-maize™ starch, flavours, fructose, mineral (calcium), food acid (332), vegetable gums (460, 466, 407), stabiliser (452), salt, vitamins (C, niacin, A, B12, B6, B2, B1, folate).

The product provides 8.5g protein, 4g fibre, 18.8g of sugar and is 177kcal per carton.

Pack size & type: Available in multipacks of 3 x 250ml at a recommended retail price of AU$6.05 per multipack.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 39

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.2 Brand profiles

United Kingdom

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 40

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.2 BRAND PROFILES United Kingdom

Brands in focus: Company

Brand

Price per pack

Company

Brand

ÂŁXX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 41

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.3 Brand profiles

United States

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 42

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.3 BRAND PROFILES United States

Brands in focus: Company

Brand

Price per pack

Company

Brand

US$XX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 43

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.4 Brand profiles

China

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 44

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.4 BRAND PROFILES China

Brands in focus: Company

Brand

Price per pack

Company

Brand

ÂĽXX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 45

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.6 Brand profiles

Brazil

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 46

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.5 BRAND PROFILES Brazil

Brands in focus: Country

Company

Brand

Price per pack

Country

Company

Brand

XX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 47

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational 5.5 Brand profiles

Rest of the world

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 48

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

5.6 BRAND PROFILES Rest of the world

Brands in focus: Country

Company

Brand

Price per pack

Country

Company

Brand

XX for XXml

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 49

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

GAIN MORE Further accelerate your business

Market intelligence Expert analysis of global food and beverage markets, competitors, consumers, trends, forecasts and latest product innovations. Off the shelf reports, bespoke reports, databases.

Business strategy Advice on starting a company, creating a business plan, entering new markets, finding contract manufacturers and distributors and getting your product listed with retailers.

Mergers and acquisitions Services for food and beverage company buyers and sellers including sale mandates, target searches, valuation and due diligence.

Factories and production Turnkey design and build of production facilities, site searches, manufacturing efficiency improvements, cost reductions and quality and food safety.

zenithinternational Global Bottled Water News and Free Daily News Services

New product development Design and development of beverage formulations, drink ingredients innovations, packaging design and advice on dairy, soft drinks and bottled water labels.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Water, energy & environment Expertise in finding a water source, assessing water quality and volume, drilling and testing boreholes, obtaining a licence and reducing water use.

Events Global Soft Drinks, UK Soft Drinks, Global Bottled Water, UK Bottled Water, Global Dairy, Latin America Dairy, Early Nutrition, Zenith Springboard, Beverage Digest Future Smarts, Beverage Digest Market Smarts.

Page 50

News Free daily news and Global Bottled Water News Service twice a week.

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

We hope you found this report insightful. Please help us improve our reports further by providing your feedback here.

For a tailor made study specific to your requirements, please telephone Monika Fedor on; +44 (0)1225 327900 or email mfedor@zenithinternational.com.

To subscribe to FREE daily industry news from Zenith International, please click here.

Zenith also offers specific news services, including a dedicated bottled water newsletter, plus online data resources and continuous market monitoring.

Our consulting activities are wide ranging. These include tailor made market studies, strategic advice, acquisitions and due diligence, business plans and cost modelling through to plant construction and operational efficiency, environmental audits and groundwater development.

To discuss any of Zenith’s services, please telephone our head office on; +44 (0)1225 327900 or visit www.zenithinternational.com.

zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide

Page 51

This report is CONFIDENTIAL and its circulation and use are RESTRICTED Š Zenith International 2016. All rights reserved.